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Well I Declare: 8th September

Well I Declare: 8th September

Well I Declare: 8th September

There's a busy racing prograame today and whilst Mal Boyle's main focus is on events at Haydock (including a detailed look at the Group 1 action scheduled for this afternoon, we've also got some information and pointers to help you make your picks at Ascot, Thirsk, Kempton, Wolverhampton and Stratford!

SATURDAY 08/08:

Ascot:

General stats: It is very difficult to achieve good figures at Ascot given the competitive nature of the sport at the royal venue.  James Fanshawe has achieved quite a feat in recent times by securing a 20% strike rate (via ten winners) which is backed up by twenty five points of level stake profits. 

 

Haydock:

General stats: Favourites in the non handicap sector have performed well (as is usually the case) in two and three year-old events at Haydock this year.  47% of the juvenile events have been won by market leaders, whilst favourites have secured 53% of three-year-old non handicap contests.

Group 1 six furlong Sprint Cup (3.25)--Statistics for the potential 18 runners at the time of writing:

Bated Breath: Haydock record: 3/4----Group 1 record: 0/8

Confessional: Haydock record: 1/6----Group 1 record: 0/1

Dandy Boy: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/2

Elusivity: Haydock record: 0/4----Group 1 record: 0/0

Genki: Haydock record: 1/4----Group 1 record: 0/7

Gordon Lord Byron: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/0

Hawkeyethenoo: Haydock record: 0/1----Group 1 record: 0/1

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Hitchens: Haydock record: 1/2----Group 1 record: 0/5

Kingsgate Native: Haydock record: 1/4----Group 1 record: 2/17

Majestic Myles: Haydock record: 0/2----Group 1 record: 0/0

Mayson: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 1/1

Society Rock: Haydock record: 0/2----Group 1 record: 1/8

Soul: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/3

Strong Suit: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/6

Es Que Love: Haydock record: 0/1----Group 1 record: 0/1

Reply: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/4

Ortensia: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 3/16

Wizz Kid: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/4

Three favourites have won during the last six years, though six of the ten winners in the last decade have been returned in double figures.  Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-3 over the last ten years. Five of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.


Other races at Haydock on Saturday:

Listed juvenile event over one mile scheduled for 1.45: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one successful (even money) market leader.

Class 2 five furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 2.15: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals during the last decade, statistics which include two successful market leaders (within the last four years). Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests.

Listed ‘Superior Mile’ due to be contested at 2.50: Four-year-olds had won the previous three renewals before two three-year-olds outgunned the best placed four-year-old bronze medallist twelve months ago.  Six of the nine favourites have finished in the money via eight renewals, statistics which include three successful market leaders. Sir Michael Stoute is the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions and Tales Of Grimm was Michael’s only option earlier in the week.  Dank (7/2) was a winner for the service last week following similar comments relating to the same trainer.

Fourteen furlong Class 2 handicap event scheduled for 4.00: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourites have prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).  Mark Johnston held five options for the race at the time of writing having secured three of the last eight contests. Six of the nine winners carried a minimum burden of nine stones

Six furlong Nursery event due to be contested at 4.30: Only two of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/2) successful favourite. All five winners have carried 9-2 or less, as have thirteen of the fourteen horses which have finished in the frame.

 

Thirsk:

General stats: Tony Coyle saddled a 10/1 winner on the first day of September and Tony’s record at Thirsk makes for decent reading.  Tony has saddled three of his eleven runners at the venue to winning effect in recent times, whilst securing fifteen points of level stake profits. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: William Muir’s outsiders are worth a second glance at Kempton given his fifty seven point LSP figure via twenty three winners during the last five years. 

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Keith Dalgleish has saddled eleven winners at Wolverhampton this season via a 20% strike rate which has realised seven points of level stake profits. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: I noted that trainer Anthony Honeyball was singled out as a trainer to watch in one of the Geegeez blogs recently and readers of this service will know that I have talked about Anthony’s recent success rate at length.  Anthony’s strike rate here at Stratford stands at 38% via five winners, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of twelve points. As the blog suggested, Anthony’s runners tend to perform well a long distance from home, albeit Stratford is too far away from the trainer’s Dorset base.  Rachel Green (Anthony’s partner) is one of the unsung heroes of the turf (note the politically correct writing) and long may that continue whereby we ‘shrewdies’ can avail ourselves of decent prices relating to her mounts.

Well I Declare: 31st August

Well I Declare: 31st August

Well I Declare: 31st August

Good Morning everyone, we've a busy day ahead of us and here's a quick recap of Mal Boyle's Stats and trends for today's action from Salisbury, Sandown, Thirsk, Wolverhampton and Bangor...

FRIDAY 31/08:

Further interruption to the service on Friday as trends for Sandown and Salisbury (alongside the other potential venues) are only conspicuous by their absence.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Richard Price has saddled an average of fourteen winners a year of late whereby his current total of six is a disappointing return.  Richard’s record at Salisbury offers hope for potential investors however as the trainer boasts a 26% strike rate via five winners during the last five years, statistics which have yielded twenty points of level stake profits for good measure. 

 

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Sandown:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (33%) and Jeremy Noseda (32%) lead the potential trainers at the meeting from a strike rate perspective. 

 

Thirsk:

General stats: I doubt that Kieren Fallon will take up the option of one ride he had booked at the track as Sandown held more engagements for the ex champion at the time of writing.  That said, I should point out Kieren’s 3/5 ratio at Thirsk for future meetings.

One mile juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Trainers do not help the cause at times because Mick Channon has saddled three winners of this event when represented in the contest and yes you guessed it, Mick did not have a runner involved at the five day stage!  I have left the information in the analysis for your convenience for the 2013 contest.  Only one of the four short priced favourites has even reached the frame (an 8/13 chance) with the winners being returned at 11/3-5/1-12/1-18/1 to date.

Two mile handicap event scheduled for 2.40: Both favourites have finished out of the (short field) frames thus far behind 7/1 and 11/2 winners.

Three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 3.50: Two of the three favourites (including an 11/4 winner) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Classified event over six furlongs due to be contested at 4.25: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include a successful 4/6 market leader.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: The only favourite to secure a toteplacepot position via four renewals to date was the winner of one of the two divisions of the 2010 contest at odds of 4/1.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: William Knight held two options on the card at the time of writing, boasting a 26% strike rate at Wolverhampton via eleven winners during the last five years.

 

Bangor:

General stats: Richard Johnson leads Tony McCoy from both a strike rate and a level stake profit perspective at Bangor, recording respective figures of 26% and thirty-three points during the last five years.  Martin Todhunter’s 24% strike rate (4/17) is worth noting, especially as the trainer has secured an LSP figure of nine points into the bargain.

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