Posts

Stat of the Day, 21st March 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.00 Dundalk : Cautious Approach @ 7/2 BOG Race Void (Injured rider on track forced a stoppage)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Thurles :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sizing Pottsie @ 9/4 BOG

...in the 9-runner, Pierce Molony Memorial Novice Chase (Grade 3) for 5yo+ over 2m2f on soft ground worth £29,204 to the winner... 

Why?...

Might be a predictable looking pick, but (a) I've not many races to go at, (b) there's a host of stats to support the pick and (c) I expect to have a winner here and I suppose that's the most important right now!

He's a hat-trick seeking 6 yr old gelding who won a similar Grade 3 Novice Chase at Navan under today's jockey last time out. That was 18 days ago over 2m on heavy ground taking his chase record to 2 from 3, having already previously won over 2m1.5f on heavy ground (also under today's rider).

He clearly has the ability to go in again, won't mind the trip or the going and obviously gets on well with jockey Robbie Power, who's in good nick of late having won 9 of 42 (21.4% SR) of rides over the last month. Those are good numbers, but even more so when you consider he was 0 from 15 at Cheltenham (now 0/40 there over three years).

So if we consider just his rides here in Ireland, he's 8 from 25 (32% SR) over the past month, including 7 from 18 (38.9%) for today's trainer, Mrs John (aka Jessica) Harrington and that includes 4 winners from 6 (66.6%) over fences.

Whilst, since the start of 2016, Robbie is 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 6.28pts (+22.4% ROI) over fences here at Thurles and these include...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for Mrs H
  • 6/17 (35.3%) on male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) with soft in the going description
  • 5/12 (41.7%) over this 2m2f course and distance
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) on 6 yr olds...

...whilst trainer Mrs Harrington's chasers are 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 2.23pts (+8% ROI) backed blindly here at Thurles since the start of 2017. I accept that 8% isn't massive, but the strike rate is good from blind backing and when filtered, those runners include...

  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.23pts (+37.4%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.23pts (+37.4%) in fields of 6 or more runners
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 9.23pts (+44%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 9.93pts (+52.3%) with horses rested for up to 25 days
  • 6/20 (30%) for 5.4pts (+27%) with jockey Robbie Power, as above
  • 6/12 (50%) for 12.27pts (+102.3%) on ground with soft in the official description
  • and 4/13 (30.8%) for 5.32pts (+40.9%) over this 2m2f course and distance...

...whilst from the original 8 from 28 record, 5-7 yr olds at 7/1 and shorter in 6+ runner races at 1-25 dslr = 7/11 (63.6% SR) for 17.94 pts (+163.1% ROI) and these include...

  • 6/9 for Robbie Power
  • 5/7 with soft featured in the going
  • 5/7 for Robbie with soft mentioned
  • 4/6 over C&D
  • 4/6 for Robbie over C&D
  • 4/5 over C&D with soft mentioned
  • and 4/5 for Robbie over C&D with the word soft in the going description

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sizing Pottsie @ 9/4 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.15am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Thurles

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!