Posts

Wednesday's pick was...

4.40 Musselburgh : Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent 2nd, lost place after next, ridden 7th, closed on outside next, weakened before normal 3 out (actual 2 out)) : she showed very little desire to get involved.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £12,736 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding won another soft ground, Class 3, handicap chase when last seen 25 days ago at Taunton and although he's up 5lbs for that win, a change of jockey to an in-form 5lb claimer sorts that out.

He's now got 4 wins and 2 from 9 starts over fences, including under today's conditions...

  • 4 wins and a place from 7 going right handed
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 at Class 3
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 on soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Ludlow

The afore-mentioned jockey, Charlie Price, hasn't been overworked of late (mind you, we've lost plenty of racing recently), but has won 3 and placed in 4 others of his 10 rides in the past three weeks, which is decent enough and he now teams up with trainer Tim Vaughan, who himself has had some joy here in Shropshire in the past few years.

More specifically, Tim Vaughan's chasers at Ludlow (all male btw) are 9 from 30 (30% SR) for 48.7pts (+162.4% ROI) if backed blindly since the start of 2014, with the following of relevance today...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 49.7pts (+171.4%) in handicaps
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 55.7pts (+242.2%) in races worth £4k to £13k
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 44.4pts (+193.1%) in 5-9 runner contests
  • 8/20 (40%) for 36.8pts (+184%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.7pts (+297%) at 21-30 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 15.7pts (+142.4%) over this 3m C&D
  • 3/10 (30%) for 39.7pts (+397.2%) at class 3
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 2.13pts (+106.5%) with LTO winners...

...whilst those sent off at 10/1 or shorter in 5-9 runner handicaps worth £4k to £13k are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+279.3% ROI) and these include 5 from 6 within 25 dslr, 3 from 3 at this 3m C&D, 2 from 2 from LTO winners and 1 from 1 at Class 3...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.00am Thursday (and widely available by 9.00am) with some 5/1 BOG at Hills, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's pick was...

12.30 Sedgefield : Christmas in USA @ 9/2 WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, led before 2nd, not fluent next, went clear before 4 out until next, went clear again before last, winning readily by 8 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 6-runner (was 9!), Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2mf on Soft ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one from two at today's trip and is trained by Tim Vaughan, who has been profitable to follow blindly here at Southwell over recent years. In fact since the start of 2015, his runners are 13 from 95 (13.7% SR) here, generating 7.6pts profit at an ROI of 8%, which is decent enough without filtering out any you wouldn't normally fancy.

If you did start to filter (as I always do!), you could consider the following ten angles, which are all logical, profitable, relevant and applicable today...

  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 26.4pts (+41.3%) in handicaps (and you could stop here if you wanted!)
  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 34.7pts (+89%) at ISP odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 9/60 (15%) for 16.3pts (+27.2%) from 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 19.8pts (+35.4%) over hurdles
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 16.8pts (+39.2%) at Class 4
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 30.2pts (+79.5%) in handicap hurdle contests
  • 8/32 (25%) for 37.6pts (+117.5%) after 22-56 days off track
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 24.1pts (+89.3%) over this 2mf course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.5pts (+196.7%) in 6-runner races
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.9pts (+143.3%) with 1 previous distance win...

...whilst Class 3/4 hcp hurdlers at 7/4 to 8/1 are 4/8 (50% SR) for 25.43pts (+317.9% ROI), including two from three over this 2mf course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's pick was...

2.20 Newmarket : Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG WON at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on strongly to lead final strides, winning by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Group 5, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m3f on Good ground worth £3249 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have an 8 yr old gelding looking for his fourth career success and he should relish some of today's race conditions, because of his three previous successes, all three came on left handed tracks, all three came wearing a tongue tie, two were at Class 5 and two were on Good ground.

Aside from that we're not really looking at masses of data this time, but trainer Tim Vaughan is 10 from 58 (17.9% SR) for 192.7pts (+344.2% ROI) and an A/E of 1.66 with his male Class 3-6 runners here at Warwick since 2010, and from those 58...

  • those racing at trips shorter than 3m1f are 8/46 (17.4%) for 196.4pts (+427.1%) : A/E = 1.81
  • hurdlers are 7/42 (16.6%) for 25.7pts (+61.1%) : A/E = 1.61
  • handicappers are 5/30 (16.6%) for 12.5pts (+41.7%) : A/E = 1.92
  • and those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 7/15 (46.7%) for 20.8pts (+138.7%) : A/E = 1.82

...from which...sub-7/1 hurdlers at trips shorter than 3m1f = 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.82pts (+185.2% ROI), including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 12.39pts (+412.9%) in handicaps...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG which was offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Sunday (Bet365 were even half a point bigger!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's pick was...

2.20 Newmarket : Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG WON at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on strongly to lead final strides, winning by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Group 5, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m3f on Good ground worth £3249 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have an 8 yr old gelding looking for his fourth career success and he should relish some of today's race conditions, because of his three previous successes, all three came on left handed tracks, all three came wearing a tongue tie, two were at Class 5 and two were on Good ground.

Aside from that we're not really looking at masses of data this time, but trainer Tim Vaughan is 10 from 58 (17.9% SR) for 192.7pts (+344.2% ROI) and an A/E of 1.66 with his male Class 3-6 runners here at Warwick since 2010, and from those 58...

  • those racing at trips shorter than 3m1f are 8/46 (17.4%) for 196.4pts (+427.1%) : A/E = 1.81
  • hurdlers are 7/42 (16.6%) for 25.7pts (+61.1%) : A/E = 1.61
  • handicappers are 5/30 (16.6%) for 12.5pts (+41.7%) : A/E = 1.92
  • and those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 7/15 (46.7%) for 20.8pts (+138.7%) : A/E = 1.82

...from which...sub-7/1 hurdlers at trips shorter than 3m1f = 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.82pts (+185.2% ROI), including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 12.39pts (+412.9%) in handicaps...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG which was offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Sunday (Bet365 were even half a point bigger!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's Pick was...

2.15 Wincanton : Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Chased leaders, every chance 3 out, fell on landing 2 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good To Soft ground worth £9384 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from just three efforts over fences so far and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Ludlow (by 8l) 22 days ago and then at Musselburgh (by 7l) 11 days later/ago with today's jockey Alan Johns in the saddle on both occasions.

Stat-wise, he became of interest as a qualifier of one of my micros that looks at LTO winners of handicap chases and whilst the strategy might look complicated in print, it's actually pretty straightforward and logical ie...

...Since the start of 2013 : males running in Class 3/4, UK Handicap Chases shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word "Good" in the official description who won a handicap chase LTO less than three weeks earlier and aren't now dropping in class are 238 from 872 (27.3% SR) for 155.7pts (+17.9% ROI)...

And as 872 bets over 5 yrs from just one angle is too many for lots of people, there are various angles you could attack this strategy from, but I'll just give you ten that are all relevant today...

  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 172/686 (25.1%) for 189.6pts (+27.6%)
  • 6 to 15 days after that LTO win : 157/517 (30.4%) for 131.4pts (+25.4%)
  • won by 2 to 10 lengths LTO : 129/411 (31.4%) for 152.2pts (+37%) this is a good/simple filter : just 47% of the original bets for only 3.5pts less profit!
  • at Class 3 : 88/361 (24.4%) for 76pts (+21%)
  • stepping up in class : 93/340 (27.4%) for 70.1pts (+20.6%)
  • on good to soft : 71/270 (26.3%) for 61.5pts (+22.8%)
  • in 2018 : 40/122 (32.8%) for 35.7pts (+29.3%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 36/94 (38.3%) for 58.1pts (+61.8%)
  • trained by Tim Vaughan : 5/12 (41.7%) for 3.07pts (+25.6%)
  • and here at Sandown : 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.3pts (+78.7%)

You can, of course, combine the above to make a composite micro, but you do dilute the sample size each time you add a new filter, but if you wanted say around 15% of the original number of bets, then...Class 3 at 6/4 to 10/1, 6-15 dslr, won by a neck to 10L LTO = 35/123 (28.5% SR) for 78.4pts (+63.7% ROI), including 6 from 15 (40%) for 10.05pts (+67%) this year alone...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Bet365, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Thursday evening, whilst an extra quarter of a point was available from SkyBet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Result :

7.30 Warwick : Brahms de Clermont @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/4 led, went right 3rd, joined 3 out, headed before next, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair from last.

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Towcester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Honey Pound4/1 BOG

Why?

A 9 yr old gelding who was a winner LTO over course and distance under today's 3lb claimer jockey, Alan Johns, 32 days ago.

Trainer Tim Vaughan is 18 from 33 (54.6% SR) for 29.85pts (+90.5% ROI) here at Towcester with sub-9/2 shots since 2010, of which...

  • hurdlers are 10/17 (58.8%) for 23.8pts (+140%)
  • handicappers are 8/16 (50%) for 13.78pts (+86.2%)
  • and handicap hurdlers are 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.76pts (+141.8%) including Honey Pound LTO.

And with Alan Johns claiming 3lbs again, it reminds us that Tim Vaughan + 3lb claimer in NH hcps + 2012-17 + 14/1 max odds = 51/226 (22.6% SR) for 107.6pts (+47.6% ROI) including...

  • those ridden by Alan Johns = 28/121 (23.1%) for 30.1pts (+24.9%)
  • and here at Towcester @ 5/8 (62.5%) for 19.5pts (+243.7%)

And the final string to today's bow is the following micro... 2008-17 / hcp hurdles / C&D win LTO = 241/1175 (20.5% SR) for 163.7pts (+14% ROI) with 9 yr olds winning 26 of 98 (26.5% SR) for 60.3pts (+61.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Honey Pound4/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.15pm on Sunday an to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Saturday's Result :

7.30 Warwick : Brahms de Clermont @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/4 led, went right 3rd, joined 3 out, headed before next, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair from last.

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Towcester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Honey Pound4/1 BOG

Why?

A 9 yr old gelding who was a winner LTO over course and distance under today's 3lb claimer jockey, Alan Johns, 32 days ago.

Trainer Tim Vaughan is 18 from 33 (54.6% SR) for 29.85pts (+90.5% ROI) here at Towcester with sub-9/2 shots since 2010, of which...

  • hurdlers are 10/17 (58.8%) for 23.8pts (+140%)
  • handicappers are 8/16 (50%) for 13.78pts (+86.2%)
  • and handicap hurdlers are 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.76pts (+141.8%) including Honey Pound LTO.

And with Alan Johns claiming 3lbs again, it reminds us that Tim Vaughan + 3lb claimer in NH hcps + 2012-17 + 14/1 max odds = 51/226 (22.6% SR) for 107.6pts (+47.6% ROI) including...

  • those ridden by Alan Johns = 28/121 (23.1%) for 30.1pts (+24.9%)
  • and here at Towcester @ 5/8 (62.5%) for 19.5pts (+243.7%)

And the final string to today's bow is the following micro... 2008-17 / hcp hurdles / C&D win LTO = 241/1175 (20.5% SR) for 163.7pts (+14% ROI) with 9 yr olds winning 26 of 98 (26.5% SR) for 60.3pts (+61.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Honey Pound4/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.15pm on Sunday an to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Thursday's Result :

1.20 Chelmsford : Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG 7th at 6/4 - Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong

Boxing Day's pick goes in the...

1.40 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old won his last effort over hurdles in a similar (C5, 2m) contest at Uttoxeter 12 weeks ago when ridden by today's jockey Alan Johns for the first time. He has run creditably in two chases since then and Mr Johns now jumps back in the saddle for a second time, as the horse reverts back to hurdling.

He acts well enough on soft ground and is still favourably treated based on his previous Irish form and seems overpriced at 7/1 to me today.

His trainer, Tim Vaughan, is 17 from 80 (21.25% SR) for 67.2pts (+84% RO) here at Wincanton since 2009, and with today's contest in mind, those 80 runners are...

  • 16/71 (22.5%) for 57.5pts (+81%) as males
  • 16/69 (23.2%) for 73.1pts (+106%) aged 4 to 8 yrs old
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 71.3pts (+108%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 13/59 (22%) for 71.8pts (+121.7%) over hurdles
  • 10/57 (17.5%) for 71.2pts (+125%) in handicaps
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 15.6pts (+47.3%) over 1m7.5f / 2m

In addition to the above, Alan Johns has 21 wins from 164 (12.8% SR) rides on Tim Vaughan's handicap hurdlers since the start of 2015, netting 30.9pts profit at an ROI of 18.8% with those racing over 1m7.5f/2m winning 6 of 35 (17.1%) for 35.6pts (+101.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chakisto at 7/1 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 6 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 9.45pm on Christmas Day (yes, we work Christmas Day for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 7/1 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Thursday's Result :

1.20 Chelmsford : Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG 7th at 6/4 - Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong

Boxing Day's pick goes in the...

1.40 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old won his last effort over hurdles in a similar (C5, 2m) contest at Uttoxeter 12 weeks ago when ridden by today's jockey Alan Johns for the first time. He has run creditably in two chases since then and Mr Johns now jumps back in the saddle for a second time, as the horse reverts back to hurdling.

He acts well enough on soft ground and is still favourably treated based on his previous Irish form and seems overpriced at 7/1 to me today.

His trainer, Tim Vaughan, is 17 from 80 (21.25% SR) for 67.2pts (+84% RO) here at Wincanton since 2009, and with today's contest in mind, those 80 runners are...

  • 16/71 (22.5%) for 57.5pts (+81%) as males
  • 16/69 (23.2%) for 73.1pts (+106%) aged 4 to 8 yrs old
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 71.3pts (+108%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 13/59 (22%) for 71.8pts (+121.7%) over hurdles
  • 10/57 (17.5%) for 71.2pts (+125%) in handicaps
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 15.6pts (+47.3%) over 1m7.5f / 2m

In addition to the above, Alan Johns has 21 wins from 164 (12.8% SR) rides on Tim Vaughan's handicap hurdlers since the start of 2015, netting 30.9pts profit at an ROI of 18.8% with those racing over 1m7.5f/2m winning 6 of 35 (17.1%) for 35.6pts (+101.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chakisto at 7/1 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 6 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 9.45pm on Christmas Day (yes, we work Christmas Day for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 7/1 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2015

Royal Roslea didn't run badly at all on Monday and gave us a decent run for our money at 4/1. Unfortunately she became the latest placer in a month where too many have made the frame without going on to win.

She had every chance entering the final furlong, but lacked the killer burst of pace and we had to settle for third place at our advised 4/1 odds.

We do, however, still have two more chances this month and although Tuesday looks very tricky, I'm expecting a decent effort from one in the...

4.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where I've taken 3/1 BOG about Tim Vaughan's lightly raced 7 yr old gelding Jimmy Shan.

Mr Vaughan doesn't send too many runners here to Southwell, but since 2008, his sub-10/1 handicappers are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 21pts (+46.6% ROI) profit with those running at Class 4 winning 9 of 25 (36% SR) for 23.9pts (+95.6% ROI), of which those priced at 2/1 to 6/1 are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 19.6pts (+140% ROI).

Jimmy Shan has only made three starts over hurdles and has finished 323, having raced here over course and distance last time out to finish third 27 days ago. That was his first run for 223 days since failing over fences at Warwick and was his first effort over hurdles for some 405 days. As a result, he was entitled to need that run earlier in the month and should strip fitter for it.

The ground is better here today and he has already demonstrated a preference for good ground and his cause is helped further by a 3lb ease in weight. He led until three out last time, but stamina shouldn't be an issue, now he's had the pipe-opener. He has finished third in two races over this trip and a record of a win and two places from four Irish PTP runs shows he'll get the three miles here.

This now becomes his second run inside a month after that 32-week layoff and Tim Vaughan's Class 3 to 5 handicappers making their second appearance in a 90-day window are 80/457 (17.5% SR) for 71.9pts (+15.7% ROI), with those 457 runners broken down as follows...

  • males are 72/397 (18.1% SR) for 72.4pts (+18.2% ROI)
  • 6 to 8 yr olds are 61/294 (20.8% SR) for 111.8pts (+38% ROI)
  • top 5 finishers LTO are 61/253 (24.1% SR) for 45pts (+17.8% ROI)
  • those who last ran 26 to 45 days ago are 24/126 (19.1% SR) for 88.4pts (+70.2% ROI)
  • those running over three miles are 12/48 (25% SR) for 51.2pts (+106.7% ROI)

Combining the above creates a dataset too small to be conclusive in my opinion, but a slight relaxing of the parameters gives the following...6 to 8 yr old males who finished in the top 7 LTO, 26 to 60 days ago are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 60.9pts (+90.9% ROI), of which the three-milers are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 12.9pts (+107.4% ROI).

My 3/1 BOG on Jimmy Shan is with Coral, but with at least three other firms matching that price, you're advised to...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Southwell

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Here is today's racecard.

Tim-Vaughan-sends-Valley--007

Vaughan - 0 From 91 With Cheltenham Runners!

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Stat of the Day: 14/03/13

Stat of the Day: 14/03/13

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2013

I was right to suggest that the odds on favourite would be the main danger to us yesterday if he handled the new surface well enough. As it happens, he seemed to really "get" the Fibresand and fairly bolted home beating our selection by six lengths easing down! Our 2nd place at 3/1 further improved James Tate's Southwell record, but did nothing for our bottom line.

We'll take a break from the A/W action today and we'll have a crack at a handicap hurdle. It isn't, however, the Pertemps at Cheltenham, but more rather a Class 5, three-mile contest on Good To Soft (Softer in parts) ground. We're expecting a field of fourteen for the...

3.05 Towcester

Tim Vaughan has a pretty decent record here at Towcester in recent times with his hurdlers boasting a 26.1% strike rate here at Towcester since the start of 2011. These figures have been achieved courtesy of six winners from twenty-three runners during that study period.

Tim has two entries today, Kings Sunset will be taking on the fancied pair of Opera Og and Roll the Dice in the 3.45 chase contest, where he'll do well to even grab a place, but a small 14/1 E/W punt might not be the worst bet you'll make today!

It's the preceding race that attracts me today and Mr Vaughan's only hurdler here, Duneen Point.

Duneen Point actually took 10 attempts to get off the mark when finally breaking his duck at Fontwell on Boxing Day (2m4f, heavy) and he followed up that run with a very creditable showing over today's course and distance at 9/1 here last month.

He finished third that day, a length and a half off the winner and a half-length behind Bravo Riquet who he reopposes today on slightly better terms. The two are closely matched, but the extra pound might just make all the difference for our selection to reverse the placings.

Although Duneen Point's sole victory came over 2m 4f (today is 3m), he has some decent rides under his belt at today's trip already with a record of 234P3 with four of those five contests being run on soft ground. Those runs allied to his win on heavy ground means he shouldn't be found wanting for stamina, nor should he mind the cut in the ground.

His propensity to find one or two horses slightly too good on the day lead me down the place betting route and as such today's play is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Duneen Point at 6/1 BOG. This price is pretty much available everywhere, so for your preferred bookie, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.05 Towcester

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