Wednesday's pick was...
5.30 Worcester : King Alfonso @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in last pair, tracked leaders after 5 out, ridden after 3 out, one pace when switched inside 2 out, stayed on to take narrow 3rd towards finish, no impression)
Thurday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Blue N Yellow @ 10/3 non-BOG until morning or 3/1 BOG
...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Novice Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £3,509 to the winner...
This 6 yr old gelding carries top weight (12-0) here today, but arrives in decent enough form and a repeat of his run LTO when 3rd at Worcester 23 days ago could well be enough as he drops down a class.
Trainer Tom George is hardly a frequent visitor to Stratford with just 74 runners here over the last 6 years, but with 18 winners (24.3% SR) generating profits of 35.8pts (+48.4% ROI), it's often worth the journey. With today's race in mind, here are how those 74 runners stack up...
- 16/67 (23.9%) for 35.6pts (+53.1%) from males
- 14/36 (38.9%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%) at odds shorter than 4/1
- 13/37 (35.1%) for 51.9pts (+140.2%) at trips shorter than 2.5 miles
- 12/41 (29.3%) for 52.5pts (+128%) from 6-8 yr olds
- 9/28 (32.1%) for 20.1pts (+71.8%) in Novice races
- 8/26 (30.8%) for 11.9pts (+45.8%) over hurdles
I know that some people are wary of backing horses carrying 12 stones or more, but since the start of 2016 in UK Class 4/5 handicap hurdle contests, 5-9 yr olds with the top OR in the race carrying top weight of 12-0 to 12-5 are 61/197 (31% SR) for 139.3pts (+71.1% ROI) at 3-30 days after their last run, from which...
- males are 49/160 (30.6%) for 122.7pts (+77.2%)
- at odds of 5/4 to 8/1 : 47/131 (35.9%) for 111pts (+85.4%)
- at Class 5 : 31/89 (34.8%) for 104.8pts (+119.1%)
- those dropping 1 class are 17/63 (27%) for 80.5pts (+129.8%)
- here at Stratford : 4/8 (50%) for 15.7pts (+196.1%)
...whilst Class 5 males at 5/4 to 8/1 are 21/50 (42% SR) for 50.2pts (+104% ROI) with those dropping down a class winning 11 of 22 (50%) for 38.9pts (+185.2%).
And finally, I want to quickly look at the pace tab on your Racecards, as this says that prominent runners fare best in this type of contest and our pick has scored 3 in three of his last four starts and averages 2.5 over those four runs, so if he runs to his usual style, he should have a great chance again today.
In addition to that running style being preferable here...over the last 6 yrs in UK Class 4/5 handicap hurdle contests, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12-0 to 12-5 over trips up to 2.5 miles on ground "better" than heavy are 83/333 (24.9% SR) for 83.1pts profit (+25% ROI) at ISP (and we'd always expect to beat ISP in the long run) when racing with a pace score of 2 or higher. Those who race prominently (ie scoring 3 or 4) are 53/176 (30.1%) for 80.4pts (+45.7%)...
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Blue N Yellow @ 10/3 non-BOG until morning or 3/1 BOG as was available at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!