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Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.30 Worcester : King Alfonso @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in last pair, tracked leaders after 5 out, ridden after 3 out, one pace when switched inside 2 out, stayed on to take narrow 3rd towards finish, no impression)

Thurday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue N Yellow @ 10/3 non-BOG until morning or 3/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Novice Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £3,509 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding carries top weight (12-0) here today, but arrives in decent enough form and a repeat of his run LTO when 3rd at Worcester 23 days ago could well be enough as he drops down a class.

Trainer Tom George is hardly a frequent visitor to Stratford with just 74 runners here over the last 6 years, but with 18 winners (24.3% SR) generating profits of 35.8pts (+48.4% ROI), it's often worth the journey. With today's race in mind, here are how those 74 runners stack up...

  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 35.6pts (+53.1%) from males
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%) at odds shorter than 4/1
  • 13/37 (35.1%) for 51.9pts (+140.2%) at trips shorter than 2.5 miles
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 52.5pts (+128%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 20.1pts (+71.8%) in Novice races
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 11.9pts (+45.8%) over hurdles

I know that some people are wary of backing horses carrying 12 stones or more, but since the start of 2016 in UK Class 4/5 handicap hurdle contests, 5-9 yr olds with the top OR in the race carrying top weight of 12-0 to 12-5 are 61/197 (31% SR) for 139.3pts (+71.1% ROI) at 3-30 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 49/160 (30.6%) for 122.7pts (+77.2%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 8/1 : 47/131 (35.9%) for 111pts (+85.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 31/89 (34.8%) for 104.8pts (+119.1%)
  • those dropping 1 class are 17/63 (27%) for 80.5pts (+129.8%)
  • here at Stratford : 4/8 (50%) for 15.7pts (+196.1%)

...whilst Class 5 males at 5/4 to 8/1 are 21/50 (42% SR) for 50.2pts (+104% ROI) with those dropping down a class winning 11 of 22 (50%) for 38.9pts (+185.2%).

And finally, I want to quickly look at the pace tab on your Racecards, as this says that prominent runners fare best in this type of contest and our pick has scored 3 in three of his last four starts and averages 2.5 over those four runs, so if he runs to his usual style, he should have a great chance again today.

In addition to that running style being preferable here...over the last 6 yrs in UK Class 4/5 handicap hurdle contests, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12-0 to 12-5 over trips up to 2.5 miles on ground "better" than heavy are 83/333 (24.9% SR) for 83.1pts profit (+25% ROI) at ISP (and we'd always expect to beat ISP in the long run) when racing with a pace score of 2 or higher. Those who race prominently (ie scoring 3 or 4) are 53/176 (30.1%) for 80.4pts (+45.7%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Blue N Yellow @ 10/3 non-BOG until morning or 3/1 BOG as was available at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

12.50 Lingfield : Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (In touch, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead closing stages, ridden out to win by half a length)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good To Soft worth £12086 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding made the switch to the bigger obstacles 7 months ago and has made the frame in 6 of 7 efforts so far, winning twice. His best performance was arguably at Wincanton last time out when a runner-up by just 2.5 lengths in a Listed race. There was no disgrace in the defeat 25 days ago, as he went down to a Paul Nicholls-trained favourite (we know how well they do!) with previous winning form at Gr2 and he was 11 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

Stat-wise, I'll be keeping it relatively simple today, focusing on trainer Tom George, whose runners are 4 from 19 (21.05% SR) over the last fortnight, but more pertinently are 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 26.88pts (+67.2% ROI) in chases here at Ludlow when sent off at 5/1 or shorter since the start of 2013 and these include of relevance today...

  • males @ 16/39 (41%) for 27.88pts (+71.5%)
  • in hcps : 15/38 (39.5%) for 26.75pts (+70.4%)
  • within 2 months of last run : 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.82pts (+57%)
  • November to April = 15/32 (46.9%) for 32.99pts (+103.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/31 (41.9%) for 27.51pts (+88.7%)
  • and 5-7 yr olds are 12/25 (48%) for 25.58pts (+102.3%)

And a composite from the above?

In Class 3 handicaps during December to April, 5-7 yr old males rested for less than 7 weeks are 8 from 12 (66.6% SR) for 25.17pts (+209.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2017

Monday's Result :

1.40 Plumpton : Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/2 Tracked leaders, smooth headway to lead before 2 out, clear between last 2, kept on well, comfortably by 3.75 lengths.

Next up is Tuesday's...

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 1m 7.5f on Good ground worth £10,635 to the winner...

...featuring a 7 yr old gelding who has finished 2112 in his last four starts, culminating in an excusable defeat three weeks ago. I say excusable because, it was his chasing debut, the ground was unsuitably soft for him and he probably needed the run after almost 21 weeks off the track.

All that considered, a 2 length defeat over 2 miles when only headed in the final half furlong wasn't a bad effort, but he looks better suited today as he should come on for having had a run, he should benefit from the experience of tackling the bigger obstacles, we've got good ground today and he drops back half a furlong.

He 's trained by Tom George who has a 20% strike rate over the last fortnight (5/25) with 3 of his last 8 chasers winning, so the yard seems in good health and over the last six years here at Southwell, his string are 25/81 (30.9% SR) for 33.3pts (+41.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 25/71 (35.2%) for 43.3pts (+61%)
  • males are 19/64 (29.7%) for 26.7pts (+41.7%)
  • from September to March : 20/55 (36.4%) for 44.2pts (+80.4%)
  • on debut today or finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 16/39 (41%) for 51.5pts (+132.1%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 13/39 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+57.5%)
  • 21-60 days since horse's last run : 12/37 (32.4%) for 15.4pts (+41.5%)
  • ridden by Adrian Heskin : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.6pts (+33%)
  • 7 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 7.1pts (+59.2%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 5/10 (50%) for 15.61pts (+156.1%)

As I alluded above, Adrian Heskin takes the ride today and he has become Tom's go-to jockey of late and overall together they are 68/331 (20.5% SR) for 76.6pts (+23.1% ROI) with Class 3/4 handicap chases providing 27 winners from 103 (26.2% SR) for 32.1pts profit at an ROI of 31.1%.

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

1.30 Newbury : Beware The Bear @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Chased leaders, went 2nd 4 out, clear last, idled run-in, always doing enough and more comfortable than 1 length would suggest..

Thursday's pick goes in the...

1.00 Exeter...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rocklander @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after winning at Chepstow (good) on his handicap debut and follwing up with a win LTO on good to soft ground ground like today, over at Leicester 18 days ago.

This takes him to 2 from 2 in handicaps, both under today's jockey AP Heskin, who is now 20/88 (22.7% SR) for 77.6pts (+88.2% ROI) on Tom George's horses this year (and overall!).

The string is in good nick generally to be fair and the yard seems to do particularly well at the shorter NH trips, with 106 winners from 590 runners (18% SR) for 209.1pts (+35.4% ROI) profit at trips shorter than 2m4f since the start of 2012, and of those 590...

  • males are 96/498 (19.3%) for 203pts (+40.8%)
  • 5 to 8 yr olds are 93/447 (20.8%) for 272.4pts (+60.9%)
  • those who last ran 11-20 days ago are 22/88 (25%) for 63.96pts (+72.7%)
  • those ridden by AP Heskin are 11/44 (also 25%) for 68.5pts (+155.6%)
  • and here at Exeter : 7/26 (26.9%) for 29.9pts (+115%)

AND from all that...Males aged 5 to 8 yrs old are 84/363 (23.1% SR) for 261.9pts at an ROI of 72.1%, of which...

  • 11-20 dslr = 17/48 (35.4%) for 75.7pts (+157.7%)
  • AP Heskin = 10/30 (33.3%) for 18.6pts (+62%)
  • Exeter = 5/15 (33.3%) for 29pts (+193.5%)

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Rocklander at 9/2 BOG with either BetVictor or Ladbrokes who jointly led the way at 5.20pm on Wednesday with plenty of more than acceptable 4/1 available elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Lingfield : Swiss Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up, headway entering final furlong, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on for a comfortable win by 2.25 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Noche de Reyes @ 2/1 BOG

Why?

A little shorter than I'd normally go for, but there's very little of interest to me in the usual 11/4 to 5/1 range that I try to play in.

This 7 yr old gelding comes here off the back of a decent runner-up finish in a Listed event at Ascot 23 days ago, when only beaten by Quite By Chance who ran well again at the weekend off a mark of 143. Our bouy now drops down to Class 3 handicap company off 129 and he's 3/12 at this level with all three wins coming from six efforts here at Ludlow, all over the 2m trip where his form reads 12P112.

Those three wins have contributed to his trainer Tom George having 18 winners from 70 (25.7% SR) for profits of 29.5pts (+42.1% ROI) during the November-April period of 2011-16. Of these 70 runners (applicable here today)...

  • males are 18/65 (27.7%) for 34.5pts (+53%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 17/55 (30.9%) for 42.2pts (+76.8%)
  • handicappers are 14/44 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+49.8%)
  • chasers are 14/38 (36.8%) for 27.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/36 (36.1%) for 25.2pts (+70%)
  • and over 2m : 9/30 (30%) for 28.2pts (+93.9%)

AND...males aged 5-8 in Class 3 handicap chases are 11 from 26 (42.3% SR) for 31.4pts (+120.8% ROI), of which those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 11/21 (52.4%) for 36.4pts (+173.4%) with those racing over 2m winning 5 of 10 (50%) for 13.34pts (+133.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Noche de Reyes at 2/1 BOG with any of Bet365 (my preference), BetVictor, Hills, Betbright, Ladbrokes and/or Boylesports who all concurred at 11.20pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Lingfield : Swiss Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up, headway entering final furlong, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on for a comfortable win by 2.25 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Noche de Reyes @ 2/1 BOG

Why?

A little shorter than I'd normally go for, but there's very little of interest to me in the usual 11/4 to 5/1 range that I try to play in.

This 7 yr old gelding comes here off the back of a decent runner-up finish in a Listed event at Ascot 23 days ago, when only beaten by Quite By Chance who ran well again at the weekend off a mark of 143. Our bouy now drops down to Class 3 handicap company off 129 and he's 3/12 at this level with all three wins coming from six efforts here at Ludlow, all over the 2m trip where his form reads 12P112.

Those three wins have contributed to his trainer Tom George having 18 winners from 70 (25.7% SR) for profits of 29.5pts (+42.1% ROI) during the November-April period of 2011-16. Of these 70 runners (applicable here today)...

  • males are 18/65 (27.7%) for 34.5pts (+53%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 17/55 (30.9%) for 42.2pts (+76.8%)
  • handicappers are 14/44 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+49.8%)
  • chasers are 14/38 (36.8%) for 27.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/36 (36.1%) for 25.2pts (+70%)
  • and over 2m : 9/30 (30%) for 28.2pts (+93.9%)

AND...males aged 5-8 in Class 3 handicap chases are 11 from 26 (42.3% SR) for 31.4pts (+120.8% ROI), of which those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 11/21 (52.4%) for 36.4pts (+173.4%) with those racing over 2m winning 5 of 10 (50%) for 13.34pts (+133.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Noche de Reyes at 2/1 BOG with any of Bet365 (my preference), BetVictor, Hills, Betbright, Ladbrokes and/or Boylesports who all concurred at 11.20pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2015

Team Skelton were at it again at Cheltenham on Wednesday afternoon as Long House Hall absolutely hosed up to win by 16 lengths without even having to be ridden. He'd been turned out quickly ahead of a hike in the weights, which is now likely to be massive, so don't be surprised if he doesn't run again within the next few days.

He was even a bit keen early on and had to be restrained, so might still have more to come over a longer trip, but that's not for me to call. All I can say is that it's another 3.5pts in the bag as this purple patch continues with the added satisfaction of beating SP by half a point.

Same location for Thursday's pick, but a longer trip over bigger obstacles in the...

5.00 Cheltenham:

Where I'm backing A Good Skin at 9/2 with Stan James (please note, SJ are non-BOG until 10.00am, but I think this will shorten & 4/1 BOG is widely available), as the horse bids to win back to back chases in the space of a fortnight.

He's trained by Tom George, whose record in handicap chases since the start of 2011 with horses priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range reads 70 winners from 354 runners with the 19.8% strike rate giving rise to level stakes profits of 69pts at an ROI of 19.5%.

When today's jockey Paddy Brennan is in the saddle, however, the results are even better. 56 winners from 247 represents a 22.7% strike rate and the 83.2pts profits are 33.7% return on your money, which is hardly surprising as the team are profitable to back blindly over fences.

Since 2010 the George/Brennan/Handicap Chase equation looks like this at all odds  : 84/442 (19.9% SR) for 47.33pts (+11.22% ROI), which is nice little thing to keep an eye out for. They excel at Classes 3 & 4, they do really well around this type of trip, but more importantly, they just make money!

I said at the top of the piece that A Good Skin was a winner a fortnight ago: that was at Ludlow, when he beat Loose Chips by three parts of a length, but don't be fooled into thinking that was a hard race to win for him. He hit the last fence quite hard when 4 to 5 lengths clear, lost his momentum and idled on the run in and was still able to repel the challenger.

A step up in trip and something to challenger him should bring more out of him today.

And then there's the knowledge that since 2008, Tom George's handicap chasers who won their last race in the previous 30 days went on to win again on 18 of 79 (22.8% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 13.4pts (+16.9% ROI), so there's another tactic to look out for.

Those such runners who ran at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 won 15 of 58 (25.9% SR) for 17.3pts (+29.8% ROI), while Paddy Brennan rode 15 winners from 51 (29.4% SR) for 21pts (+41.2% SR) and when Paddy was riding a 6/4 to 7/1 shot, he was successful 14 times from just 40 efforts, a fantastic 35% strike rate yielding 29.8pts profit at an ROI of 74.4%.

The George/Brennan alliance is in good nick, landing a couple of winners last week before a narrow defeat with Saint Are finishing runner-up in the Grand National and they had a 6/1 success here at Cheltenham on Wednesday with their only runner of the day, Whats Happening.

Stan James are currently best priced at 9/2, but that won't go BOG until 10.00am, but I'm taking that now, because I think A Good Skin will contract in the market, but if you want/need the BOG security, 4/1 BOG is readily available and I'll be using that for official results.

But as always, do check that's still available by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 5.00 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2014

No back to back evening successes at Kempton for us as Chauvelin was beaten by 2.5 lengths into fifth place on Thursday evening. He had been held up in mid-division for a challenge and was handily placed off the last bend before being outpaced for a furlong or so.

He stayed on strongly though, making up ground in the closing stages, but the damage was already done and that's a point lost.

Chase action for Friday in the...

3.00 Sandown:

And Tom George's 9 yr old Ballyallia Man who trades at 3/1 BOG with Betbright.

Tom is in great form at the moment with four winners from seven runners in the last 5 days and has a good record with this chasers over the last couple of years. Since the start of 2102, his chasers have won 84 of 467 (18% SR) races for 55.3pts level stakes profits at an ROI of  11.8% and more relevant to SotD is the fact that these runners are 71/313 (22.7% SR) for 63.6pts (+20.3% ROI) when priced between 6/4 & 8/1.

Ballyallia Man is top weight here carrying 11-12 in his bid to land back to back wins after triumphing at Wincanton four weeks ago, which in turn was his first outing for 220 days, so it was an impressive performance to win after the layoff.

I'm not concerned about him being top weight, because in what I call winter chases (ie Nov to Apr) on Soft ground or worse, top weight chasers carrying 11-5 to 11-12 who won inside the last 45 days but haven't had more than 3 runs in the last 90 days have won 41 of 132 (31.1% SR) races since 2008 and the profits of 59.2pts equate to a 44.8% return on your money with those running on soft ground like today being 29/87 (33.33% SR) for 58.5pts (+67.3% ROI)

From those soft ground runners, 16 winners from the 46 (34.8% SR) carrying 11-12 for 32.7pts (+71.1% ROI) profit and the soft ground runners priced between 2/1 and 10/1 are 24/71 (33.8% SR) for 62.5pts (+88% ROI).

Which ultimately gives us the soft ground runners priced between 2/1 & 10/1 and carrying 11-12 : 11 winners from 34 (32.4% SR) for 32.6pts (+95.9% ROI) profit.

That win last time out came after a run of form reading 0P44, so it's unsurprising to see he turned back out fairly quickly in a bid to strike whilst the iron is hot. Chasers won won LTO after 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts have followed up that win with another win on 53 of 208 (25.5% SR) occasions when sent off at 7/1 or shorter within 30 days of that win. Those 53 winners have helped to generate profits of 44.5pts at an ROI of 21.4%.

Ballyallia Man was a comfortable winner last time out, finishing 6 lengths clear of his nearest rival and although his mark has increased as a result, I think he might still have something in hand over the assessor. He seemed to have plenty spare that day, despite it being his return from an absence of 220 days and I expect he'll come on again for having had that run.

He stays further than this and has a good record in testing conditions with 2 wins and 4 places on ground described as either soft or heavy with a 1314 record on soft ground. The weight is, admittedly, a little bit of a concern, but that's possibly why he's not as short as he might have been in the market.

The call, therefore, for Friday is a 1pt win bet on Ballyallia Man at 3/1 BOG with Betbright. For a fuller market overview...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.00 Sandown 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2013

Stat of the Day: 23/02/13

Stat of the Day: 23/02/13

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2013

Another frustrating blank yesterday, as Frisco Depot seemed not to stay the trip and folded quite tamely late on. He still got home, albeit in 5th position. The money came for David Pipe's favourite and his horse justified the support winning quite comfortably.

It's another chase event today and we're off to the banks of the Thames (almost, anyway!) for one of the biggest races of the day. We're going to tackle the Class 1 Racing Plus Chase, a Grade 3 Handicap over 3 miles. The ground is expected to be Good (but softer in places) for the thirteen runners in today's...

3.50 Kempton

Tom George has a good record with his runners here at Kempton over the last couple of years: 15 runners, 4 winners (26.7%) for 10pts profit (+66.7% POI) with a further two runners making the frame. His chasers here have kept up their end of the bargain too with three winners from nine (+11pts) and a place strike rate of 56%.

Paddy Brennan is one of the top jockeys around this course during the same time-frame too, with stats of seven winners from twenty for good profits of 30pts at SP and a 45% place strike rate. His record when chasing here is four winners and a place from just 10 attempts: the 4 winners producing 20pts profit to boot.

Together, they have already made 34pts profit this season at various tracks, whilst in 2012 they teamed up six times here at Kempton with a record that reads 11F161 giving followers 18.5pts profit (21.4pts for the E/W backers), whilst their 2012 Kempton chase form was 1161 for 15.5pts (18.6pts E/W).

Paddy rides two chasers for Mr George today: Lexicon Lad looks to have a reasonable chance in the 1.30 race, but for a horse more likely to place than win, his current odds of around 9/2 are a little on the mean side for me with no E/W get out. Instead I'm more interested in the grey Nacarat running in the 3.50 race.

Nacarat is 1424351 over course & distance giving returns of 9.5pts for win backers and 12.75pts to E/W stakes, so this 12 yr old warrior has been profitable to follow here. He also loves this race, having finished in the first three home in each of the last four renewals.

He won the race in 2009, 2nd in 2010, 3rd in 2011 and he won it again last year, beating Hector's Choice (who subsequently went on to win at Cheltenham) by some eleven lengths. Nacarat arrives here just 1lb higher than that win last year and I expect another strong show from the front today.

Wyck Hill will be (quite rightly) strongly fancied today and his market support will help us get a decent price for our selection and the general consensus at 11am was that we're looking at an 8 to 9/1 shot, which seems quite fair to me ( I had 8/1 in my mind earlier) and so the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Nacarat at 9/1 BOG. I've gone with bet365 today, but for your preferred bookmaker...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Kempton, whilst...

...you can view today's racecard here.

***P.S. If you're not already on, Paddy Power are offering your money back if we finish second to Wyck Hill.***

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