Stat of the Day, 4th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

8.00 Stratford :Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG WON at 13/8 (2nd until after 1st, chased leaders, went 2nd again 2 out, soon led, clear before last, easily won by some 27 lengths!)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £3184 to the winner... 


No danger of Tuesday's runner getting nailed late on, as he won by 27 lengths with ease. I'm hoping for a similar level of performance from this 6 yr old gelding, who probably did a little too much on the front end when third (beaten by 2 lengths) when last seen 32 days ago. That said he fared best of those racing prominently and our racecard data suggests prominent racing is successful here over this trip at Worcester.

To date, our boy has...

  • 3 wins and 7 places from 13 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over this 2m7.5f trip
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under today's jockey Tom O'Brien
  • won his only attempt at course and distance (also ridden by Tom O'Brien that day.

He is trained by Robert Stephens, who seems to have found a little niche in races like today's, as since the start of 2015, his hurdlers are 8 from 33 (24.2% SR) for 45.7pts (+138.5% ROI) here at Worcester, with the following angles of relevance at play on this occasion...

  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m : 5/23 (21.7%) for 46pts (+200%)
  • within 5 weeks of their last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.3%)
  • handicappers are 6/21 (28.6%) for 42.6pts (+202.9%)
  • on good ground : 5/21 (23.8%) for 43.2pts (+205.7%)
  • ridden by Tom O'Brien : 6/18 933.3%) for 21.95pts (+122%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 41.1pts (+256.6%)
  • those racing off a mark (OR) of 90-105 are 6/15 (40%) for 34.7pts (+231.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.2pts (+122.8%)
  • in July : 4/13 (30.8%) for 27pts (+207.7%)
  • 3 to 5 weeks since last run : 4/12 933.3%) for 35.7pts (+297.7%)
  • and those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO are 4/10 (40%) for 28.71pts (+287.1%)

And if you wanted some non-trainer/course specific data, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that in UK Class 3-5 handicap hurdle races over 2 to 3 miles during the March to September period, former course and distance winners who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 119/502 (23.7% SR) for 252.5pts (+50.3% ROI).

The above will clearly give rise to a whole host of profitable angles, which I won't bore you with, but it's worth noting that...

  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 27/96 (28.1%) for 104.6pts (+108.9%)
  • whilst here at Worcester, they are 18/51 (35.3%) for 89.3pts (+175.1%) us...a 1pt win bet on Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 4.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tizzard top in Tolworth

Finian’s Oscar ran out a comfortable winner of the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown.

In the absence of Nicky Henderson’s Kayf Grace, Saturday’s renewal looked to be a head-to-head between Tizzard’s exciting youngster, and the Paul Nicholls trained Capitaine. The pair battled for favouritism, and then continued the tussle on the track. In truth, the result rarely looked in doubt. Approaching two flights from home, Tom O’Brien made his move, and Finian’s Oscar swept clear. Capitaine tried to go with him, but a poor jump at the second last put paid to his chances.

Tizzard said of the impressive winner: “He’s a real professional horse. He's a gorgeous young horse, but we were worried we’d not done enough with him. He's only won a point to point and a novices' hurdle at Hereford, but the way he did it at Hereford, why waste him in a little race when you can have a go at this? He looked in control most of the way and he soon went five lengths clear. He stuttered into the last and I thought ‘is he going to stop’, but as soon as Tom got busy, he went on again.”

Of plans leading to The Festival in March, Tizzard added: “He probably will run again. I think the easiest option is to go two and a half, but he's got the speed for two and he stays.”

Bookies were taking no chances, and slashed his odds to 5/1 for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle. He’s generally a 10/1 shot for the shorter Supreme Novices’. With the ground likely to run quicker at Cheltenham in March, the chances are that he will head for the Neptune. The trip should prove ideal, though whether his performance on Saturday warrants such euphoria is questionable.

Capitaine floundered somewhat in the ground, having previously run below par at Haydock in testing conditions. It was also a surprise to see Sam Twiston-Davies riding such a patient race, after the horse had performed so well from the front at Ascot the time before. He’s a gelding that lacks gears, and was caught short when O’Brien kicked for home on the winner. Messire Des Obeaux, and numerous runners from Ireland, are likely to prove a far more serious test for Tizzard’s young novice in March.

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One that looks likely to swerve the clash is the impressive Irish hurdler, Death Duty. He was in action at Naas yesterday, taking the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Hotel Novice Hurdle. His task was made easier by the last flight fall of Augusta Kate. Willie Mullins’ mare was launching a strong challenge, and had every chance, when Ruby was forced to go long at the last. The mare crumpled on landing, leaving Death Duty in glorious isolation, galloping home to win by nine lengths.

Of the victory, Gordon Elliott said: “To be honest, I thought they didn't go fast enough. Our lad is just an out-and-out stayer. They were upsides when the mare fell, so it's hard to say but the one thing you know about our horse is that he would have kept pulling out. Jack thought he had it covered. He has his job done again and that will be it now until Cheltenham.”

Doubts remain over the festival target, though Elliott appeared to be favouring the longer race when saying: “There is a long way to go between now and Cheltenham, but if the race was tomorrow, I'd be saying the Albert Bartlett, definitely. He's a proper, big three-mile chaser. At this stage, of all the good horses I've had, none of them were ever as good as hurdlers, but that doesn't mean they'll do it as chasers. I'd say he's a fair one.”

Mullins was philosophical in defeat, when saying of Augusta Kate: “She trotted up fine. I'm sure she'll be a little bit sore in the morning. She was running a good race and Ruby felt he had a little bit left, but there was still a lot of racing to do. The winner is a fair machine, so we're just happy our mare was running a good race. Whether she'd have won or not is another day's work.”

Festival targets remain a mystery, with Mullins adding: “We'll see how she comes out of the race and go from there.”

There’s no doubt that she was running a huge race when coming down at the last, and is now generally a 5/1 chance for the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Mullins already has the favourite for that particular race in Airlie Beach, and it would come as no surprise should one of them take their chance against the boys in the Neptune.

For now, it’s Death Duty and Finian’s Oscar that have enhanced their reputation, with the Cheltenham Festival looming large on the horizon.

Hobbs Can Depend On Tom

Tom O’Brien once again proved himself an able deputy for Champion Jockey Richard Johnson, when winning the Stella Artois 1965 Chase at Ascot on Saturday.

Johnson landed a double at Haydock for Hobbs, and rode Coneygree to second place in the Betfair Chase. Whilst at Ascot, O’Brien rode a cracker from the front, to lift the valuable Grade 2 chase with Royal Regatta.

Sent off a 10/1 shot, the eight-year-old is not the easiest of rides over fences, as he has a habit of hitting the odd one. Though talented, he struggles to put himself right at an obstacle, and so needs the jockey to do his utmost to ensure the horse arrives on a good stride. O’Brien did this perfectly; shortening him up when necessary, and asking for the ‘big one’ when given the chance. He needed a good leap at the last, as the tank was beginning to run empty with the line approaching.

That O’Brien is such a talented rider is no surprise. He spent five years riding out for Uncle Aidan, before arriving as a stable lad for Hobbs in 2004. He took the Conditional Jockey Championship in 2006 with a record number of winners.

In 2009 he had his most memorable ride to date, landing the Coral Welsh National, when partnering the Hobbs trained Dream Alliance. It was his first victory back in the saddle, having broken a leg and spent five months on the sidelines. The horse had also returned from a career threatening injury at Aintree in 2008.

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The eight-year-old was sent off a 20/1 shot, and was given a peach of a ride by O’Brien. Positioned prominently throughout the race, the jockey made his move four fences from home. Bar an error at the last, he could be called the winner from some way out. Silver By Nature came with a late charge, but was unable to reel in O’Brien and his willing partner.

The jockey has also shown his liking for the national fences at Aintree. His victory on Always Waining in the Topham Chase of 2012, was ironically at the expense of the Hobbs trained - Johnson ridden Chance Du Roy. He was then aboard the aforementioned Hobbs inmate, when winning the Becher Chase the following year.

Bearing in mind that Johnson rides the pick of the Hobbs yard, it’s to O’Brien’s credit that he already has 43 winners for the season, standing eighth in the championship table. A strike rate of 16% is not to be sniffed at, and the jockey followed his impressive victory at Ascot with a treble the following day at Uttoxeter. That successful day at the Staffordshire track included a win on 16/1 shot Tiquer, for the Somerset trainer Alan Jones.

With high profile meetings taking place on most weekends at this time of year, chances are that O’Brien will have plenty of opportunities to impress further. Though he must find it frustrating at times to be number two at the yard, he is at one of the finest. With Johnson boosted by the retirement of AP McCoy, there’s every chance that the spell as understudy will last for a good while longer.

Nevertheless, with the equine quality at their disposal, Philip Hobbs and his team are sure to have another profitable campaign. Tom is set to prove a major player in that continued success.

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2012

Stat of the Day 18/08

Stat of the Day 18/08

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2012

Matt is occupied elsewhere this weekend, so I'm dipping my toes back into the water in a bid to find a successful conclusion to what has already been a good week for us all involved with SotD. Dashwood failed to dash for us yesterday, but at 33/1 it wasn't a massive surprise, so no major disappointments there.

Our quest for a Saturday winner takes us North of the border today for a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle. We're expecting good ground for the eleven runners scheduled to tackle the 2m½f in the Summer Champion Hurdle aka the...

4.15 Perth

Our go-to trainer for Perth has to be Peter Bowen: he doesn't send hundreds of horses to Perth, but the few that do venture North are often well rewarded. In the past two years, he has only had ten representatives at this track, yet has managed to collect prize money on no less than seven occasions, courtesy of six winners and a place. This has rewarded his followers with a level stakes profit of 16pts from those 10 races.

During these fruitful times, Mr Bowen has called upon the services of Tom O'Brien for 8 of those rides: resulting in 4 wins and 2 places and the pair of them join forces again today for just the one ride on Kian's Delight, our SotD pick of the day.

Kian's Delight is a fast improving progressive type and ran really well last time out. On that occasion, he finished second behind Local Hero in a listed event at Market Rasen, despite running from 3lbs out of the handicap. A continuation of his progression or even a run to that same standard should be enough to see him home today in what looks a slightly easier task. With this in mind, the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from bet365, BetVictor and Paddy Power looks quite generous, so I'm in at that price. No half measures today: it's win only for SotD on this one. I'd expect that price to contract as the day goes on, so it would be wise to...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.15 Perth.

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