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Racing Insights, 13th October 2020

Tuesday's feature of the day is the Shortlist report, so that's where I'm going to base this piece.

So, without further ado, here is the Shortlist for Tuesday...

...where one horse, Beau Geste, leaps from the page with a maximum score of 15. He's currently available to back at around the 11/4 to 3/1 mark and I want to take a closer look at him to see if he justifies being towards the head of the market and also whether he's possibly worth sticking a quid or two on.

We'll start with the racecard...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...which immediately alerts us to two wins and two places from his last five runs, he's dropping in class (↓1) from a 4th place finish (on turf) 44 days ago and he'll be ridden by Hollie Doyle, who herself has a good record at this venue (C5). His Geegeez Speed Rating of 79 is well clear of the next best rated, which is also another bonus.

The Instant Expert tab on the racecard adds numbers to the colours indicated on the Shortlist, as follows...

...based around the above, I can also tell you that his entire A/W career form reads 12113, all at Class 6, including the 3 from 3 here at Wolverhampton over 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs and he has finished 1211 under jockey Hollie Doyle, who herself has the C5 icon next to her name on the racecard.

In fact, since the start of 2019, Hollie has a near 1-in-5 record on this track, winning 40 of 202 races, including 32 from 89 (36%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, 25 from 108 (23.2%) on male runners and 19 from 97 (19.6%) at Class 6, whilst she is 8 from 25 (32%) on Class 6 males sent off at 6/1 and shorter.

I don't want to labour this too much, but it's probably worth looking to see how trainer Tony Carroll fares here at Wolverhampton, as I prefer not to see trainers relying on one horse for winners and thankfully my fears on that score are allayed as he has a marginally better than 1-in-7 record here this year courtesy of 12 winners from 82.

They include 11 from 64 (17.2%) from horses with a run in the previous seven weeks, 10 from 62 (16.1%) for male runners, 9 from 30 (30%) from those sent off at odds ranging from 5/4 to 9/2, 8 from 51 (15.7%) from 3/4 yr olds and 6 from 23 (26.1%) over trips of 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, whilst his 3/4 yr old males at 5/4 to 9/2 are 5 from 10 (50%) having ran in the previous 7 weeks and they include 2 from 2 in the last 6 weeks alone.

Whether Beau Geste goes on to win here or not, there are plenty of useful angles above that you can put into your query tool to generate future runners/winners going forward. Research is always a long-term project and whilst instant success is always welcome, it's not the be all and end all.

Summary

Beau Geste is currently the 11/4 favourite in the early market and the above analysis would appear to back that up. He's better than his last 4th place effort would suggest when staying on under hands and heels after being hampered on ground probably a bit to soft for him.

Can he win here? I'd say so, despite him being a hold-up horse. The pace profile of this contest suggests that he shouldn't win, but with a 3 from 3 record at this track, being held up hasn't stopped him yet. He might need some luck in running, but Hollie Doyle knows what she's doing and the braver amongst you might wait until the race goes in-play for a higher price on the exchanges if he is held up again.

 

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Slowly into stride, held up, headway and switched right over 2f out, soon edged left, kept on inside final furlong, no impression on winner) - allowed winner too much of a soft lead IMO.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

More on this after the school run...

So, we have a 4 yr old who is joint top on our own ratings, who won last time out (8 days ago) and comes from a yard with a good recent record at this venue.

In fact, this one has been in consistently good form for some time, he won on the last day of February and then returned to the track post-lockdown in early June and has finished 2242261 since, culminating in a win over 5.5 furlongs at Bath last week in another Class 6 handicap under today's jockey and off the same mark as today.

The big field shouldn't bother him, as 13 ran in that Bath contest, whilst I'm sure an extra 100 or so yards will be fine, based on the report from LTO, which reads...midfield, stumbled slightly 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led just inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length.

The racecard screenshot above also points to trainer Tony Carroll's 12-month record here at Chepstow, so I won't repeat those numbers, but I would suggest focusing on those handicappers sent off at odds of 10/3 to 10/1, as since the start of 2017, they are...

and this includes of relevance today...

  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 34.73pts (+82.7%) on the Flat
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 42.73pts (+125.7%) off marks of 54 to 74
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 43.23pts (+154.4%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 6/20 (30%) for 16.38pts (+81.9%) at Class 6
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 24.8pts (+112.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 8.05pts (+42.4%) on Good ground
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.33pts (+55.6%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.38pts (+121.6%) over this 6f course and distance

Based on the above, it makes perfect sense to me to look for Flat handicappers officially rated 54 to 74 who  had run in the previous 25 days and they are...

...meaning we've halved the original sample size, but only lost one of the winners. The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that these filters also apply to Our Man in Havana who runs in the first division of this handicap and is a nice price for an E/W bet (9/1 & 4 places paid) if that took your fancy.

As well as highlighting another possible bet, that 9 from 22 stat also includes the following (most of which also apply to the second horse)...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 36.8pts (+368%) in 3yo+ hcps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 20.88pts (+208.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 14.33pts (+159.3%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 18.38pts (+306.3%) over this 6f C&D

...steering me towards... a 1pt win bet on Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.20 Windsor : Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Soon led, went to rail over 4f out, joined and hung badly left from 2f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra and beaten by a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chetan @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

A quick look at the card shows...

...an 8 yr old course and distance winner who won last time out (also over C&D when making all on his way to a 9.5 length success) and is trained by Tony Carroll, whose form over the last two years includes...

Those LTO winners when sent off at 7/1 and shorter are...

...whilst at 4/1 and shorter, those turned back out quickly are...

And as this horse won over C&D last time out, it's worth noting that Tony Carroll does well with LTO winners with that CD icon on the racecard, especially at the sharp end of the market, as shown by...

...of which those who actually won over C&D LTO are...

And finally for today, I'd like to briefly highlight the fact that horses returning to Leicester after a C&D win last time out also fare very well, as in...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chetan @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!