Posts

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.20 Stratford : Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Mid-division, headway 2 out, soon chasing leaders, kept on same pace approaching last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chitra @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 2yr old filly has finished 121 in Nursery races so far, all over 6f and all at Class 6, including landing a big-field (19 ran!) contest LTO at relatively nearby Redcar 13 days ago. She was better than the half length margin of victory would suggest that day, as he was prominent throughout and quickly asserted control with a furlong to run, looking like she had plenty in hand.

She's the only distance winner in this field whose career tally to date stands at just 3 wins from 65, of which she is 2 from 6!

Her trainer Daniel Kubler sends her here today in a bid to improve an already decent record with LTO winners who are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 8.78pts (+48.8% ROI) when sent off in handicap races at odds of 5/1 and shorter over the last four years. Of those 18, Class 6 runners are 3 from 7 and jockey Tony Hamilton is 1 from 2, but more relevant today are the following from those 18 LTO winners...

  • Daniel's only runner at the track : 6/15 (40%) for 8.38pts (+55.8%)
  • less than 3 weeks rest : 6/15 (40%) for 6.24pts (+41.6%)
  • in fields of 7-12 runners : 7/13 (53.8%) for 13.78pts (+106%)
  • same trip as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 7.76pts (+77.6%)
  • same class as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%)
  • and at the same class and trip as the LTO win : 3/5 (60%) for 8.48pts (+169.6%)

Now, Daniel also has just one runner at Brighton today, who is another LTO winner, also priced shorter than 5/1 in a Class 6 handicap. She also runs in a 12-runner field at the same class (and track, too) as her last win and with Daniel having a decent record at Brighton, I'd not dissuade you from a small punt on Nyala at 4/1 BOG in the 4.35 race...

...but my main selection is... a 1pt win bet on Chitra @ 5/1 BOG, a price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.20 Lingfield : Full Suit @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leaders in 3rd, ridden over 1f out, soon weakened)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muatadel 11/2 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding is winless in almost a year, but is now back on a mark 3lbs lower than his last win 2lbs lower than when beaten by just a length over this course (at 5f, staying on) a week ago. The 5th placed horse, that day, Bondi Beach Boy has since gone on to win at Beverley three days ago, so that's a positive, as is the extra furlong for our pick today.

By virtue of winning this race last year Muatadel is the only previous C&D winner in today's field and that 1/1 C&D record has contributed to him having 2 wins and 2 places from 4 visits to this venue, whilst 2 of his 3 career wins are under today's jockey Tony Hamilton.

Trainer Roger Fell has got his horses running well right now, as demonstrated by a 12 from 48 925% SR) for 28pts (+58.3% ROI) return over the last 30 days, whilst here at Doncaster, his career record reads 6 from 32 (18.75% SR) for 67pts (+209.4% ROI), from which...

  • over 6/7f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 75.83pts (+421.3%)
  • at C5 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.4%)
  • Tony Hamilton : 3/10 (30%) for 21.85pts (+218.5%)
  • C5  @6/7f : 3/7 942.9%) for 24.85pts (+355%)
  • Tony Hamilton @ 6/7f : 3/6 950%) for 25.85pts (+430.9%)
  • Tony Hamilton @ C5 @ 6/7f : 3/4 (75%) for 27.85pts (696.3%)

And those trainer/jockey stats are unsurprising, as overall...Fell + Hamilton + Class 4/5 Flat Handicaps = 21/121 (17.4% SR) for 55.6pts (+45.9% ROI), including...

  • 3-6 yr olds : 20/112 (17.9%) for 61pts (+54.5%)
  • males : 19/106 (17.9%) for 52.7pts (+49.7%)
  • 2-15 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 65.2pts (+100.4%)
  • 3-7 previous runs that season : 18/61 (29.5%) for 102.4pts (+167.8%)
  • June to August : 16/61 (26.2%) for 91.5pts (+150%)
  • on Good to Firm : 12/55 (21.8%) for 15.5pts (+28.2%)
  • rated (OR) 2lbs lower than LTO : 5/30 (16.6%) for 37.43pts (+124.8%)
  • and over 6f : 5/25 (20%) for 22.25pts (+89%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Muatadel 11/2 BOGa price available from Bet365 and SkyBet at 5.35pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 : Close up, led over 2f out, rider dropped whip over 1f out, but still pushed her out to win by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

A Class 3 handicap over a mile for three year olds on soft ground is the setting for today's pick and our three year old is a gelding who has won three of his last five starts, all of which have been at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs.

Amongst the three wins are a couple under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, and wins on both soft and heavy ground, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. He has also won at this grade, when scoring comfortably by nine lengths last time out, just eight days ago.

His trainer, Richard Fahey does well enough around these parts, as demonstrated by 81 winners from 455 (17.8% SR) for 147.4pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits over the last nine seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 66/331 (19.9%) for 178.5pts (+53.9%) over trips of five to eight furlongs
  • 35/190 (18.4%) for 51.5pts (+27.1%) with less than three weeks rest since their last run
  • 24/121 (19.8%) for 39.1pts (+32.3%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • 16/82 (19.5%) for 30.1pts (+36.7%) at Class 3
  • and 13 from 51 (25.5%) for 24.6pts (+48.2%) from those who won last time out

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 6.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 : Close up, led over 2f out, rider dropped whip over 1f out, but still pushed her out to win by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 3 handicap over a mile for three year olds on soft ground is the setting for today's pick and our three year old is a gelding who has won three of his last five starts, all of which have been at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs.

Amongst the three wins are a couple under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, and wins on both soft and heavy ground, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. He has also won at this grade, when scoring comfortably by nine lengths last time out, just eight days ago.

His trainer, Richard Fahey does well enough around these parts, as demonstrated by 81 winners from 455 (17.8% SR) for 147.4pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits over the last nine seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 66/331 (19.9%) for 178.5pts (+53.9%) over trips of five to eight furlongs
  • 35/190 (18.4%) for 51.5pts (+27.1%) with less than three weeks rest since their last run
  • 24/121 (19.8%) for 39.1pts (+32.3%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • 16/82 (19.5%) for 30.1pts (+36.7%) at Class 3
  • and 13 from 51 (25.5%) for 24.6pts (+48.2%) from those who won last time out

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 6.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.50 Newbury : Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Held up in touch, pushed along and headway chasing leaders 3f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, ridden and every chance throughout final furlong, soon edged right, no extra close home, beaten by a neck.

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.55 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Navarone @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Well, simply Trainer/Jockey/Track combo when the money is down which numerically looks like... Richard Fahey / Tony Hamilton / Beverley / 11-10 to 11-2 / 2014-17 = 16/41 (39% SR) for 29.06pts (+70.9% ROI).

And with this race in mind, those 41 runners include...

  • 1-30 days since last run : 9/22 (40.9%) for 18.6pts (+84.6%)
  • males are 8/21 (38.1%) for 17.65pts (+84%)
  • handicappers are 8/17 (47.1%) for 20.52pts (+120.7%)
  • over this 7.5f trip : 8/15 (533%) for 17.6pts (+117.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/15 (40%) for 11.32pts (+75.5%)
  • in 3yo+ races : 3/8 937.5%) for 6.35pts (+79.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/4 (50%) for 7.87pts (+196.8%)

They now team up with a 3 yr old gelding getting a nice 7lbs weight for age allowance as a 3yr old in an open age handicap, who is already 1 from 1 over course and distance, having won here two starts ago. He stepped up in class and dropped in trip for his latest run and was outpaced late on, finishing as a runner-up beaten by half a length.

The fourth placed horse that day was a further 2.25lengths behind, but has subsequently reappeared and won, so if the form holds out, I expect another good effort from our boy, who now steps back up to this trip and drops down a grade, making him of further statistical interest to me, because...

...2012-17 / Flat / class 1 to 4 / 5.5 to 8 furlongs / 3yr olds / winner 2 starts ago / 2nd LTO 1-30 days ago = 79/319 (24.8% SR) for 180.8pts (+56.7% ROI) with those dropping down 1 class winning 14 of 35 (40%) for 29.2pts (+83.4%)

...thus quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Navarone @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday with some 4/1 BOG on offer at Coral for those who are able to take advantage! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Beverley...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.50 Newbury : Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Held up in touch, pushed along and headway chasing leaders 3f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, ridden and every chance throughout final furlong, soon edged right, no extra close home, beaten by a neck.

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.55 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Navarone @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Well, simply Trainer/Jockey/Track combo when the money is down which numerically looks like... Richard Fahey / Tony Hamilton / Beverley / 11-10 to 11-2 / 2014-17 = 16/41 (39% SR) for 29.06pts (+70.9% ROI).

And with this race in mind, those 41 runners include...

  • 1-30 days since last run : 9/22 (40.9%) for 18.6pts (+84.6%)
  • males are 8/21 (38.1%) for 17.65pts (+84%)
  • handicappers are 8/17 (47.1%) for 20.52pts (+120.7%)
  • over this 7.5f trip : 8/15 (533%) for 17.6pts (+117.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/15 (40%) for 11.32pts (+75.5%)
  • in 3yo+ races : 3/8 937.5%) for 6.35pts (+79.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/4 (50%) for 7.87pts (+196.8%)

They now team up with a 3 yr old gelding getting a nice 7lbs weight for age allowance as a 3yr old in an open age handicap, who is already 1 from 1 over course and distance, having won here two starts ago. He stepped up in class and dropped in trip for his latest run and was outpaced late on, finishing as a runner-up beaten by half a length.

The fourth placed horse that day was a further 2.25lengths behind, but has subsequently reappeared and won, so if the form holds out, I expect another good effort from our boy, who now steps back up to this trip and drops down a grade, making him of further statistical interest to me, because...

...2012-17 / Flat / class 1 to 4 / 5.5 to 8 furlongs / 3yr olds / winner 2 starts ago / 2nd LTO 1-30 days ago = 79/319 (24.8% SR) for 180.8pts (+56.7% ROI) with those dropping down 1 class winning 14 of 35 (40%) for 29.2pts (+83.4%)

...thus quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Navarone @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday with some 4/1 BOG on offer at Coral for those who are able to take advantage! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Beverley...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Catterick : Herons Heir @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Held up, headway approaching 5th, led and jumped left from 3 out, clear next, ridden out to win by 6 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old was a course and distance winner under today's jockey when last seen. That was 16 days ago in a higher grade than today, but the caveat is that it was a seller as opposed to today's handicap contest.

Trainer Richard Fahey and jockey Tony Hamilton don't pair up here on the A/W at Southwell as often as I'd like to to see them, which is a pity as they're 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+15.2% ROI), from which...

  • those who last ran 6-20 days ago are 10/52 (19.2%) for 30.7pts (+59%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/33 (24.2%) for 28.6pts (+86.7%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 8/29 (27.6%) for 29.6pts (+102.1%)

AND...3 yr olds running over 5/6f 6-20 dslr are 3/5 (60% SR) for 28pts (+560%)

Then we should look at another angle, perhaps? So if we take the following criteria : Fahey / handicappers / 2013 onwards / odds of 5-4 to 7-1 / previous C&D winners / LTO (anywhere) winners, we get 17 winners from 66 (25.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+22.4% ROI), including...

  • same C&D as LTO : 16/56 (28.6%) for 22.1pts (+39.5%)
  • 1-25 dslr : 17/50 (34%) for 30.8pts (+61.6%)
  • males are 11/44 (25%) for 18pts (+40.9%)
  • Class 5/6 = 7/21 (33.3%) for 9.5pts (+45.3%)
  • ridden by Tony Hamilton = 8/20 (40%) for 15.1pts (+75.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 5pts (+62.5%)

AND...males at the same C&D as LTO, 1-25 dslr are 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 34pts (+121.3% ROI)

...and...a 1pt win bet on Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Wednesday (although bet365 were offering 3/1) and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Southwell 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2016

Monday's Result :

12.50 Musselburgh : Donna's Pride @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, not fluent 3rd, closed from 5th, led before 3 out, headed when not fluent 2 out, no impression on winner, stayed on same pace)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.55 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shypen @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has won three of her last seven outings and two of her last four on the All-Weather, but I'm not surprised about that, considering she's a daughter of Archipenko, but more on that shortly.

With regards to today's contest, Shypen is 3 from 8 when rated 71-80, 3 from 6 over 6f and 2 from 4 going left handed, including a previous win here.

Now back to her father, Archipenko, whose offspring have been remarkably successful so far, winning 107/700 (15.1% SR) for 424.5pts (+59.8% ROI), including...

  • females are 45/248 (18.2%) for 306.7pts (+123.7%)
  • on the A/W : 46/235 (19.6%) for 276.6pts (+117.7%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 35/196 (17.9%) for 259.9pts (+132.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 34/167 (20.4%) for 248.1pts (+148.6%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 13/65 (20%) for 32.3pts (+49.7%)

AND...from the above, females on the A/W over 6/7 furlongs are 12/39 (30.8% SR) for 207.3pts (+531.6%), of which Polytrack runners are 8/30 (26.7%) for 168.1pts (+560.3%) with those coming here to Lingfield winning 3 of 9 (33.3%) for 13.2pts (+146.8%).

In additon to those numbers, she'll also have the benefit of course specialist Tony Hamilton in the saddle and Tony has ridden 13 winners from 62 attempts (21% SR) for 55pts (+88.7% ROI) over the last three years, from which he is 10/37 (27%) for 72.7pts (+196.4%) in handicaps and 9/45 (20%) for 13pts (+28.9%) on horses trained by Richard Fahey.

AND...the Hamilton / Fahey / Lingfield AW hcp angle is worth 6/25 (24% SR) for 25.7pts (+102.8% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shypen at 9/2 BOG, a price offered at 5.55pm on Monday by both BetVictor and Paddy Power with plenty of 4/1 BOG elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2016

Tuesday's Result :

6.50 Stratford : Pembroke House @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Held up in rear but in touch, headway 3 out, never on terms)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Invermere at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has won 2 of her last 4 starts, including her last outing four weeks ago, when she was a winner over this course and distance under today's jockey Tony Hamilton. She did just enough that day to prevail in a tight race and with just a 1lb rise in weight to contend with, that knowledge of the track could prove very beneficial.

Since 2008, Richard Fahey's handicappers who were LTO winners and are now sent back to a venue where they had previously won over track and trip are 36 from 166 (21.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 30.85pts at an ROI of 18.6% and in respect of this particular event, those 166 runners are...

  • 34/139 (24.5%) for 51.1pts (+36.7%) over trips of 6 to 12 furlongs
  • 33/135 (24.4%) for 32.9pts (+24.4%) after a rest of 1 to 4 weeks
  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 14.9pts (+34.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 9.95pts (+27.7%) from his female runners
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 27.9pts (+82.1%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • and they are 2 from 6 933.3%) for 7.6pts (+126.7%) here at Catterick.

Moreover, Mr Fahey has a decent record at this venue too, especially in Class 2 to 4 handicaps, where his horses are 16/90 (17.8% SR) for 36.3pts (+40.3% ROI) since the start of 2008 and we can break those down as follows...

  • those racing over 6/7f are 11/62 (17.7%) for 19.2pts (+31%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 14/54 (25.9%) for 33.7pts (+62.4%)
  • those with 1 to 3 previous career wins are 11/48 (22.9%) for 35.9pts (+74.8%)
  • those with 5-10 previous career runs are 7/22 (31.8%) for 21.2pts (+96.6%)
  • and on Good to Firm ground, they are 4/14 (28.6%) for 30.7pts (+218.9%)

AND...those priced at 8/1 and shorter over 6/7 furlongs with 1-2 previous wns from less than 10 outings are 6/12 (50% SR) for 20.1pts (+167.2% ROI), including Invermere herself when winning over course and distance last time out.

...but for now, the call is a 1pt win bet on Invermere at 4/1 BOG which was on offer pretty much everywhere at 8.05pm, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Catterick

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 5th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th August 2015

It's not often we get to Wednesday chasing a hat-trick, but that's where we're at after Alaskan Wing got home by a neck at an SP of 3/1, which mirrored my advised 10/3 BOG after the dreaded 10p Rule 4 was deducted.

And just like Red Invader on Monday, our runner chose to do it the hard way to win by a similar margin. He virtually fell out of the stalls, almost went to his knees, but was up as quick as a flash and was at the front of the pack after about 100 yards!

He seemed to waste valuable yardage going very wide around the bend for home and didn't seem like having enough to pass the leader, until just getting his nose in front in the closing strides to give us a second winner of the week for 9pts profit in two days.

It has been a remarkable few months for SotD with 38 winners from 100 runners since April 1st and almost 78pts to boot and I know I keep saying it, but the bubble might have to burst soon, but hopefully not tomorrow, because I'd like a hat-trick via the...

2.40 Pontefract :

A ten-runner, Class 4 maiden over six furlongs on good ground, where I'm expecting a good run for money from Richard Fahey's grey filly Sunnua, who is priced up at 5/2 BOG in her bid to get off the mark at the fourth time of asking here.

Some of the stats I dig up for you for SotD are bit obscure/leftfield but valid nonetheless, however I have a very simple system for Richard Fahey horses running at Pontefract that can be summed up in just three words....

Back them all!

Blindly backing Richard's runners here for the past seven seasons (including this one!) has made a profit in six of those years and overall you'd have backed 59 winners from 295 runners (20% SR) and a £20 bet on all of them would have seen you collect profits of £3310 or 56.1% of all your stakes. NBot bad work from blindly backing a trainer.

Obviously he does better with certain types than others, but the break down of his winners here gives me even more confidence / optimism about Sunnua's chances, because (in descending number of runners)...

  • his 6f runners here are 22/109 (20.2% SR) for 129.5pts (+118.8% ROI)
  • his 2 yr olds are 18/76 (23.7% SR) for 132.4pts (+174.3% ROI) here
  • At Class 4 level, they are 17/74 (23% SR) for 55.1pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • his maidens are 16/72 (22.2% SR) for 121.2pts (+168.3% ROI)
  • fillies are 14/67 (20.9% SR) for 77.5pts (+115.7% ROI)
  • and those ridden by Tony Hamilton are 15/65 (23.1% SR) for 41.7pts (+64.2% ROI)

Obviously there's great consistency in those numbers and you could mix and match those subsets to your heart's content, but you'd end up with a very small sample size. If you did, however, want a small microsustem with fewer than the 45 runners a year Richard seems to send here, you could try the following Fahey runners at Pontefract...

...those running at trips of 5 to 8 furlongs at Classes 2 to 5 which gives 45 winners from 185 (24.3% SR) and level stakes profits of 195.2pts (+105.5% ROI) off around 25-30 bets a season.

Sunnua was third on debut over 5f on good to soft ground at Hamilton before finishing as a runner-up over this track and trip, giving up valuable experience of this course. After that run, she was deemed good enough to be sent to the 22-runner, Class 2, 5f Weatherby's Super Sprint, where as you'd expect she came up a bit short!

She wasn't, however dissgraced by any means in finishing 15th of 22, but only beaten by 5 lengths in a really tight race earning her self a mark of 76, but she was only 2 lengths behind Belvoir Bay who has since won a Class 2, 6f handicap off a mark of 84 at Goodwood last week.

So, if Sunnua runs to her mark or runs to within two lengths of Belvoir Bay's recent effort, then I'd expect us to happy about taking a price of 5/2 BOG despite it being at the lower end of where I like to be for SotD, as she looks dangerous receiving 5lbs from her rivals here. I think she's likely to go off a bit shorter, so take the value whilst you can.

My 5/2 BOG bet on Sunnua is with the Betfair Sportsbook, but when I wrote this piece, that price was also available with Bet365 and BetVictor.

To see the current market for this contest...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Pontefract

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Fahey puts his Guineas faith in Hamilton

Garswood (r) beats Emell at Newmarket

Garswood (r) beats Emell at Newmarket

Jockey Tony Hamilton is looking forward to Saturday’s 2000 Guineas more than most, as he’ll have his first ever Classic ride in the race. Read more

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Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends & stats at Epsom, Musselburgh & Haydock this Derby Day Saturday. Read more