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Tortoise and The Hare 4th July 2012

Final update! After a supersonic start, peaking at 60+ points, the slow decline followed with an astonishing 61 bets without a winner, although the placers were consistent as ever. Ultimately, what we're left with from betting win and place to level stakes for six weeks is, after commission, a profit of 2.53. However, what we see when splitting the bets into their two component parts, i.e. Win bets and Place bets, are two entirely different beasts:

WIN bets. 147 bets overall returned 6 winners during the first three weeks, none during the last three. Having developed the system over a few years, I know to expect the long losing runs on win bets. At year's end, though, there has always been a decent profit. For this 6 weeks however, it's a loss of 36.92.

PLACE bets. Now this is the bread and butter of the system. Over the last 6 weeks 117 qualifying (5+ matched) bets returned 30 hits. That's a whacking 25+% Strike Rate at a MINIMUM 4/1 return on each. In this case returning 162.05 points, or 156.45 after commission, a profit of 39.45.

Using 80/20 place/win staking that equates to a profit after commission of 24.176 points.

Hope you've enjoyed the ride, and as there are a couple of contenders this afternoon I'll leave them with you as a little extra:

W2.40 Draco Boy 20/1, 32, 6.9

W4.10 Cool Cascade 16/1, 21, 5

 

'Bye for now, and remember - Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 3rd July 2012

...And here we are at the end of week 6. I'll do a final update tomorrow to include today's selections from Stratford. Here are this evening's three, with current SP, which we don't want, and current Betfair prices, which I've taken.

 

6.40 Dealing River 20/1, 26, 6.8

7.10 Marley Roca 16/1, 20.27(!), 5

7.40 The Foxes Decree, 20/1, 27, 5.1

 

With patience, you can probably get higher on the exchanges, but I'm happy with these.

 

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 2nd July 2012

A shame that Ultravox (2nd 7/1) plummeted quickly into single figures making it a non-bet for us. In the words of their song, "It means nothing to me...". Also, Graceful Descent had a rapid descent in to 6/1, no use to us. Of the other two, Crazy Bold was a trier, finishing 4th and Aviso was matched for the 5 for a place (2nd 20/1), saving the day and leaving us with +0.8 points. Having peaked at 6.8, it was eventually returned at 5.9 BfSP, but I'm happy we got our asking price.

No jumps today, but tomorrow evening we have three races to look at, then on Wednesday I'll post the complete stats for the last 6 weeks.

 

Until then, have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 1st July 2012

Summer jumps meetings are few and far between, but today we have Uttoxeter, and four fit the bill. As always, we are looking for decent prices in double figures on Betfair that are bigger than industry (bookie) odds. If greater than 10/1 (11 exch) isn't available, no bet. Place bets are 5+ or no bet. Selections are posted here  with general odds, followed by Betfair win and place bets. **means if not matched take Bf odds at off; *means if not matched cancel at off. 

 

4.05 Ultravox 20/1, 26**, 5*

4.35 Crazy Bold 20/1, 34, 7.2

5.10 Aviso 16/1, 21, 5*

5.40 Graceful Descent 14/1, 21**, 5*

 

3.30 is a class 2 race, therefore not within the required criteria for the system, otherwise Mohi Rahrere 25/1 ticks the other boxes and I'm on at smallest stakes at 40 and 8.

 

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 28th June 2012

A poor start to week six, which by the way only has two more jumps meetings scheduled. No excuses for yesterday, but two fourths and a fifth does indicate a smidgeon of plain old back luck! I'll be posting up some more stats and previous runs for comparison during this week, so any questions?

Meantime, have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 27th June 2012

A poor week, where the 26 placers did well as usual, returning 36.59 after comm for a profit of 10.59; however, zero returns from the 29 win bets meant a loss on the week of 18.41, bringing the ongoing profit at the end of Week 5 down to +13.85.

Four at Worcester this afternoon, including the return of last Thursday's fun bet, William Hogarth, clearly expected to win last week judging by the amount of money bet on him. Today, dropped in class and trip, he now fits our criteria.

W3.40 Sky Calling 14/1, 18.5, 5
W4.15 Akadyr 16/1, 25, 6.8
W4.45 McKyla 16/1, 30. 5.2
W5.45 William Hogarth 20/1, 27.58, 6.6

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 26th June 2012

If you got the early 12s on Dark Prospect, then well done. Although it placed, I can't in fairness claim it as the price toppled to single figures just after I posted, making it a non-bet for the system. The other two were unplaced, leaving us 4 points down on the day, minus 12.83 with today to conclude week five.

Four for this evening, markets still forming; these are current industry odds followed by speculative win bets which will revert to Betfair SP if not matched or cancelled. Place bets if not matched by the off time are cancelled automatically:

Bal 7.50 Riotman 16/1, 24(matched), 5
Bal 8.25 Tawrific Laois 16/1, 24, 5(matched)
Nab 8.45 Novikov 20/1, 32, 6(matched!)
Bal 8.55 Royal Chukka 20/1, 32, 5(matched)

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 25th June 2012

One placer from seven matched yesterday returned 5.18 after commission, a loss of 11.82 on the day. Weekly P/L minus 8.83 with two days to go.

Three for this evening at Kilbeggan. Only £40 matched on Betfair at time of writing, much too early for the markets to form; here are the current industry odds followed by the prices I'll be trying for:

6.30 Dark Prospect 12/1, 21, 5.5

7.30 Chapter Eleven 20/1, 34, 6

8.30 Keogh's Bar 25/1, 40, 8

 

I'll try to update later in the afternoon.

 

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 24th June

After no jump racing yesterday, we find ourselves with a veritable plethora - 3 jumps meetings - today. From a possible dozen contenders, we have nine selections that fit the system requirements:

Her 2.50 Bay Central 12/1, 18.5, 5*
Her 3.20 Legends Lass 16/1, 24, 5*
Gow 3.40 Bachelor Affair 20/1, 28, 5
Her 3.50 First Beauty 28/1, 40, 5.4
Hex 4.00 Shulmin 20/1, 26, 6
Hex 4.30 Vivarini 50/1, 75, 13.5
Gow 4.45 Tajweed 25/1, 40, 6
Her 5.20 Society Venue 25/1, 40, 5.4
Her 5.50 Gainsborough's Art 16/1, 21, 5.6

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 23rd June 2012

Whitehead Lad plummeted to non-bet status almost as soon as I posted, leaving us with 5 win bets and only matched on 3 placers, two of which fortunately did the job returning at 6 and 5, or 10.55 in total after commission. That was a profit of a mere 2.55 on the day, making our ongoing weekly P/L +3.49 after deduction of stakes.

As there are no jumps meetings today (therefore no system selections), I thought I'd do another of my occasional updates of how the system works. You might have noticed that we haven't had a winner since the 9th (36 selections), yet the placers keep things ticking over so there are no massive losses during this time.  I've looked back in my records (proofed to SpawnofHYS site and still there to be viewed) at the last two Junes and here's an interesting trend:

June 2010 - Losing run of 38 between 10th and 20th of month. Profit on WIN bets only for month using bookies' BOG - +55

June 2011 - Losing run of  51(!) between 5th and 15th of month. Profit on WIN bets only for month using Betfair - +49

 

Previously published profits monthly/annually have all been for WIN bets only, but knowing the value of the placers and being advised accordingly, I've begun including place bets/results as an integral part of the system since joining Geegeez last month.

 

A transparent and accurate record is all-important to published systems, so anything else you might need to know, just ask.

 

11 possible races to consider tomorrow, so in the meantime - have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 22nd June 2012

One non-runner yesterday, two placers from the remaining five, at 5 and 5.7, gave a return after comm of 10.27, another tiny profit for day 2, week 5, of +0.27

Five races today, six selections:

M4.10 Persian Gates 16/1

M4.45 Billy Teal, 25/1

M5.20 Rhythm Seeker 14/1

D7.25 Fairwood Bob 25/1

Also Whitehead Lad 20/1

D8.30 Selection Box 20/1

While the exchange  markets are forming, I'll be asking around half as much again as current bookies prices. I'll update as I get them, although often the best prices don't come until nearer the off.

The fun bet yesterday, William Hogarth, was backed in from 20/1 (I got 26) to 8/1, so clearly I wasn't the only one who thought it was his turn!

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 21st June 2012

Two placers yesterday matched at 6.8 and 5, but after withdrawals in the last and commission taken, return was 10.59, clear profit of +0.59 for the start of week five. Not a lot, but a winning day.

Six for this evening plus an interesting non-system fancy. Markets unformed and scrappy at the moment.

Fon 5.45 Zhukov 14/1, 21**, 5*

Fon 6.15 Chief Bucaneer 14/1, 21**, 5.7

Fon 7.25 Sea Cadet 16/1, 24**, 6

Fon 7.55 Reaction 16/1, 25, 6.2

Ffo 8.50 Kapdor 20/1, 41, 8.2

Fon 9.00 Alldunnandusted 20/1, 32, 6

**Match or take Betfair SP

*5 Match or cancel at off

 

Non-system, ticks all criteria boxes except Class of race. Class 2 hurdles rarely have outsider winners, but -

Ffo 7.45 William Hogarth 20/1, 32, 5.9 fits all other requirements

 

Enjoy the Summer Solstice and above all - have fun! 🙂

 

Tortoise and The Hare 20th June 2012

Weekly update: yesterday's unplaced selection (4th again!) brought the final weekly figure to minus 6.84. Taking that from the ongoing total leaves a profit of 32.26 after commission at the end of Week 4.

 

Welcome to week 5, and five selections for today:

Wor 2.45 Quayside Court 25/1, 32, 6.8

Wor 3.20 Schumpters Lad 20/1, 28, 6

Wor 6.15 Marie Deja La 14/1, 20, 5*

Wex 7.30 Mussel Lane 12/1, 18, 5*

Wex 8.30 Coolharbour Breeze 14/1, 20, 5.1

 

Have fun! 🙂

Tortoise and The Hare 19th June 2012

We're down to one selection today as fields have tumbled in numbers due to the weather/going. Last day of week four with a 4.84 deficit, let's see this one recoup that and leave us with a bit of profit:

 

Nab 6.40 Quam Celerrime 20/1, 26, 5.2

 

Have fun!

Tortoise and The Hare 18th June 2012

No jumps racing today, next meeting tomorrow evening. Today I thought I'd familiarise you with the system's winning odds values since we commenced using Betfair on January 1st 2011, by using standard common Industry prices within which to group our results, for example 20/1 - the most frequently occuring value on my chart - encapsulates exchange digital prices from 20 (19/1) through to 23.5 (22.5/1). Less than 20 falls into the 18/1 bracket, greater than 23.5 into the 25/1 slot, as per usual bookie odds.

20/1 is the Mode - most frequently occuring value, which is why I opted for it in the above explanation, with 19% of all wins. Splitting the remainder into above/below, we see that above 20/1 accounts for 43% of the remaining wins, the highest being a win of 95 (among the 6% of the 50/1+ group).

That leaves below 20/1 accounting for the remaining 38% of all winners, which includes the second most frequently occuring value - 16/1 - only just ahead of 40'1 and 28/1.

I hope that gives you an idea of expected results without being too complex or long-winded.

 

Have fun! 🙂