Posts

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 6th May

NEWMARKET – MAY 6

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends from the last seven years:

2017: £206.70 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £190.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2015: £166.60 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £272.40 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £539.90 (7 favourites: 1 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2012: £348.70 (7 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,715.70 (10 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 7 unplaced)

Average dividend: £634.31 - 51 favourites in total - 8 winners - 14 placed - 29 unplaced

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 13 (Adamant), 11 (The Grand Visir) & 12 (Alqamar)

Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Wuheida) & 7 (Tisbutadream)

Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Gifted Master), 3 (Mr Lupton), 7 (Victory Angel) & 15 (Captain Colby)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Happily), 12 (Soliloquy) & 7 (Laurens)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Fly The Nest) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lah Ti Dar) & 6 (Qazyna)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Yesterday Placepot perm produced 32 winning lines (including all six winners), albeit the £20.20 dividend was a little disappointing.

 

1.50: Twelve of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst four and five-year-olds have won the last thirteen renewals between them. The facts and stats suggest that ADAMANT, THE GRAND VISIR and ALQAMAR should run well against their twelve rivals the pick of which might prove to be Maori Bob.  The three Placepot representatives I have called upon are listed in order of preference, the trio all qualifying via the weight and vintage trends.  Last year’s winner carried 9-10 to buck the eight trend, though that was understandable given that Frontiersman chased home Highland Reel in a Group 1 contest (Epsom’s Coronation Cup) next time out!

Favourite factor: Nine of the twenty one market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Celestial Spheres (good to firm)

1/2—Grey Brittain (good to soft)

1/3—Oasis Fantasy (good) – won this race in 2016

 

2.20 (Dahlia Stakes): Four-year-olds have won twelve renewals during the last sixteen years, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a nine-timer on this occasion.  The pick of this year’s relevant sextet should prove to be WUHEIDA who represents Charlie Appleby who secured a 138/1 four-timer here yesterday from just seven runners on the card.  Charlie’s record on the Rowley Mile this season now reads 10/21, a ratio which I doubt any trainer has ever matched at this stage of the season, not even the likes of Noel Murless, and Sir Henry Cecil.  TISBUTADREAM might chase the favourite home on this occasion, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last twenty two market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.55: Five-year-olds have won six of the last fourteen renewals during which time, ten gold medallists have carried weights of 9-1 or less.  MR LUPTON bucked the weight trend twelve months ago and racing off a three pound lower mark, Richard Fahey’s raider has a Placepot chance (at least) for all to see, especially as the Elnadim gelding carries four pounds less this time around.  That said, this is a rattling good handicap which will take plenty of winning and two outsiders with definite claims in my book are GIFTED MASTER and CAPTAIN COLBY.  The reserve nomination is offered to VICTORY ANGEL.

Favourite factor: Ten of the twenty six market leaders have secured Placepot positions (three winners) during the study period.

Record of the eight course winners in the third contest on the card:

4/8—Gifted Master (2 x good to firm – good to soft – good)

1/4—Magical Memory (good to soft)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good to firm) – won this race last year at 10/1

1/6—Aeolus (good to soft)

1/2—Ekhtiyaar (good to soft)

1/2—Victory Angel (good to firm)

2/5—Eastern Impact (2 x good to firm) – won this race in 2015

1/2—Captain Colby (good to firm)

 

3.35 (1000 Guineas): 12 of the last 20 winners of the 1000 Guineas have been returned at 9/1 or more and the pick of the potential ‘outsiders’ in the field from my viewpoint this year are LAURENS and LIQUID AMBER.  That said, punters have enjoyed better luck of late and once again, fancied runners are taken to dominate at the business end of proceedings with HAPPILY (one of four Aidan O’Brien runners) and SOLILOQUY having reached the race safely after one of the longest winters on record!  What a pointer that comment would have made twelve months ago to the winner Winter, representing the Aidan O’Brien yard which snared the forecast for good measure.  Aidan has secured four victories in the race thus far, coming into this year’s renewal on a hat trick, providing he (and Ryan Moore) have had time to catch their breath after returning from a fruitless hop across the pound to Churchill Downs last night.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame during the study period (six winners). If you want to go further back to the last 30 years (31 market leaders), the stats are as follows: ten winners—seven placed—-fourteen unplaced.  All three odds on favourites won during the extended study period, though the last of them prevailed back in 1996.

1000 Guineas draw factor in recent years:

7-9-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

8-15-3 (16 ran-good)

13-11-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

4-14-3 (17 ran-god to firm)

7-13-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

16-4-3 (18 ran-good to firm)

18-15-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

8-2-3 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-7-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

16-5-14 (21 ran-good to firm)

11-9-3 (13 ran-soft)

21-14-8 (20 ran-good to firm)

10-17-2 (16 ran-good)

Newmarket record of the four course winners in the 1000 Guineas:

1/3—Altyn Order (good)

1/2—Anna Nerium (good)

1/1—Laurens (good)

1/1—Soliloquy (good)

 

4.10: Charlie Appleby won his first renewal of this event twelve months ago and one thing we can be certain of is that it will not be the trainer’s only winner down the years.  FLY THE NEST represents the yard on this occasion and the Kodiac newcomer (March foal) might be good enough to give race fitness/experience away to BAREND BOY to winning effect.  Konchek is expected to lead the remaining juveniles home.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 17 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less (including three favourites).  11 of the 19 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the period.  Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 5/1.

 

4.45 'Pretty Polly': John Gosden came to the party on a four timer last year but his 4/6 hot pot failed to secure a Placepot position, let alone win this Listed event.  Most unusually, LAH TI DAR is John’s only runner on the card and I do not expect a repetition of last year’s disaster for favourite punters.  Despite Charlie Appleby saddling two runners in the contest, I expect Roger Varian’s course winner QAZYNA to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: All twenty winners during the study period have scored at 11/1 or less (nine winning favourites), whilst thirteen of the twenty two market leaders finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Pretty Polly’:

1/1—Qazyna (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 27th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £114.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.2% units went through – 6/4* - 12/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 67.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 9/2 – 11/4*

Race 3: 16.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 12/1 (5/6)

Race 4: 31.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/2** - 10/1 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 5: 83.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 8/1

Race 6: 35.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 12/1 – 16/1

 

Firday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Kings Shield), 4 (Dream Warrior) & 6 (Motown Mick)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Morando) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sevenna Star) & 4 (Ispoloni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Addeybb), 2 (Here Comes When) & 3 (Khafoo Shememi

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 5 (4.05): 8 (Diamond Dougal), 4 (Haddaf) & 2 (Spoof)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Highgarden) & 7 (Must Be Magic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: 'Team Hannon' have landed this prize twice in the last twelve years, one of only two represented stables to have won the contest on two occasions during the study period.  Richard saddles MOTOWN MICK who boasts win and place claims though this looks to be a tough heat, with KINGS SHIELD and DREAM WARRIOR having been declared by the powerful John Gosden and Charlie Appleby stables respectively.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Fifteen of the last twenty winners were returned at 17/2 or less.

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have won fourteen of the last sixteen renewals of this Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes with the ‘juniors’ leading 8-6 during the period, though five-year-olds were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago.  With rain on the radar, it would not surprise me to see What About Carlo outrunning his 9/1 quote in places this morning, though CRYSTAL OCEAN and MORANDO make more appeal from a win perspective.  Fabricate is one of those horses that I cannot get right so in passing up Michael Bell’s raider today, you might start forming an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to ‘get on’!

Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have obliged whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at just 8/1.  That said, only eight of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.00: This Group 3 Classic Trial invariably produces an intriguing contest and this year's renewal is no exception. I referred to the stables of John Gosden and Charlie Appleby as ‘powerful’ in the opening race which goes without saying, though especially at this moment in time when their aggregate recent ratio stands at 42/96 (44% strike rate), figures which have produced level stake profits of 60 points in recent weeks!  Their respective raiders SEVENNA STAR and ISPOLINI cannot be opposed from my self-confessed ‘anorak’ viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Just four favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.  Fourteen gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 1/2 and 11/2.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen contests, with ADDEYBB and KHAFOO SHEMENI representing the vintage this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference at the time of writing but with relentless rain falling here in the west-country this morning (seemingly on its way through to Sandown later today), HERE COMES WHEN cannot be left out of calculations.  Loyal readers will recall that I napped Andrew Balding’s Danehill Dancer gelding is last year’s Sussex Stakes when scoring at 20/1 and there is every indication that Jim Crowley’s mount can go close again today having won at the first time of asking twelve months ago.  That said, ADDEYBB turned the Lincoln Handicap into a procession on soft ground a few weeks ago which only adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have scored during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/22 market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period.  Seventeen of the last twenty gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

4.05: Twelve of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 9-2 or less though that is of no help now that the top weight has been withdrawn from the contest.  What should have been a fairly simple ‘dead eight’ race to assess now takes on a whole new meaning whereby I am offering three horses against the field, namely DIAMOND DOUGAL, HADDAF and SPOOF.  James Tate’s winners are invariable well fancied and money for HADDAF would ensure that the Dawn Approach gelding would be the call if a gun was pointed to my head to name the winner.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame during the study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

4.35:  The lads and lasses in the trade press office must have been ‘on the wallop’ when chalking up HIGHGARDEN as a potential 7/2 chance in this event yesterday.  I have made the point on numerous occasions that as an Odds Compiler myself, pricing up certain races is a difficult task but John Gosden’s Nathaniel filly was so impressive on soft ground at Newbury on her only start last year, that 6/4 would have been as far as I would have dared to ‘promote’ going into the contest.  MUST BE MAGIC is the logical danger, albeit after just one half decent effort thus far.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, with ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 8/1 during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 29th March

WETHERBY – MARCH 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £49.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 64.7% units went through – 11/4, 11/4 & 8/1 (5/2)

Race 2: 33.9% of the remaining units when through – 4/1, 14/1 & 5/1 (5/6)

Race 3: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 & 9/4 (15/8)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (5/2)

Race 5: 70.1% of the remaining units went through – 7/2*, 13/2 & 10/1

Race 6: 64.1% of the units secured the dividend – 8/11* (Win only contest)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Pirate Look) & 2 (Cosy Club)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Away For Slates) & 2 (Rock Of Leon)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Caraline), 5 (Uno Valeroso) & 7 (Glance Back)

Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Isle Of Ewe), 10 (Cash To Ash) & 14 (Allfredandnobell)

Leg 5 (4.15): 1 (Bob Mahler) & 3 (Rhaegar)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Goodtoknow), 1 (Blakemount) & 3 (Silver Hassle)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.00: A poor start to the meeting, suffice to say that two ‘ordinary’ looking horses such as PIRATE LOOK and COSY CLUB should be able to dominate at the business end of proceedings.  Those comments about the opening race should tell you all you need to know, especially as the exchange ‘betting’ suggests that it is 25/1 bar the market leaders at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (5/2) favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth behind runners which filled the frame at 11/4 (twice) and 8/1.

 

2.30: Another two horse race in the offing with AWAY FOR SLATES and ROCK OF LEON seemingly having little (or nothing) to fear from their rivals.  The pair are just about listed in order of preference, though whether the differential of (best) prices at the time of writing should be in place in open to debate, namely 2/5 and 5/2 respectively.

Favourite factor: I am a little surprised that the Placepot ‘only’ paid £49.50 last year as four of the favourites (see details above) finished out of the money, including the inaugural 5/6 market leader in this event.

 

3.05: Canny trainer Micky Hammond saddles three of the ‘dead eight’ declarations and bookmakers are already trying to protect their each way liabilities having cut stable representative CARALINE to 5/1 in places, with 9/2 possibly in the offing soon I’ll wager, just to stop punters having their ‘bets to nothing’ when ignoring the win perspective.  Dual course winner CARALINE has finished ‘in the three’ in four of his five starts at the venue for good measure.  Others of interest include UNO VALEROSO and GLANCE BACK.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 15/8 market leader finished out with the washing following the victory of the inaugural favourite at odds of 5/4.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

2/5—Caraline (soft & heavy)

1/1—Applaus (soft)

 

3.40: Wake up trainers because although six-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals thus far (including two of the last three with a representation of 32%), vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that ISLE OF EWE should take the beating in this grade/company, especially as Tom Lacey’s runners are enjoying a great run of form just now with five of his last six raiders having won!  The each way threat to Tom and his team here is CASH TO ASH from my viewpoint, whilst connections of ALLFREDANDNOBELL will point to the fact that his only victory from 24 assignments thus far was posted at this venue.

Favourite factor: One clear and one joint favourite have prevailed via seven contests thus far, whilst just three of the eight market leaders in total have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the fourth event:

2/6—Lough Salt (good & good to soft)

1/9—Forty Crown (soft)

1/3—Allfredandnobell (good to soft)

 

4.15: The betting movements of BOB MAHLER this morning make for interesting reading because although the projected favourite is as short as 4/6 on some boards, Richard Johnson’s mount is almost an even money chance on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Whichever way you interpret those conflicting odds, I’m adding RHAEGAR into the equation, especially with Kim Bailey and David Bass having teamed up to such fine effect this season.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 market duly obliged in what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

4.45: GOOD TO KNOW will be staying on when others have cried enough from my viewpoint, especially with Richard Johnson in the saddle.  SILVER TASSLE and BLAKEMOUNT are others to put into the melting pot in a race which could be contested in poor conditions by the time that the starter drops his flag.  More rain is expected to reach the Wetherby area before racing has finished this afternoon.

Favourite factor: The two (7/2 and 3/1) favourites have both secured Placepot positions thus far by gaining gold and silver medals respectively.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Blakemount (good to soft)

1/4—Goodtoknow (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 15th March

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £58.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 87.4% units went through – 6/4*, 7/2 & 4/1

Race 2: 26.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1, 16/1, 9/1 & 66/1 (8/1)

Race 3: 43.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4*, 8/1 & 40/1

Race 4: 67.9% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 5/6*

Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 14/1, 10/1, 10/1 7/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 56.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8*, 12/1 & 20/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 4 (Invitation Only) & 10 (Shattered Love)

Leg 2 (2.10): 12 (Sort It Out), 17 (Forza Milan), 19 (Protek Des Flos) & 13 (Delta Work)

Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Un De Sceaux) & 6 (Frodon)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Unowhatimeanharry), 3 (L’Ami Serge) & 2 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.10): 16 (Kings Socks), 20 (Guitar Pete), 21 (Willie Boy) & 18 (Midnight Shot)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Marias Benefit) & 2 (Laurina)

 

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: 11 of the 21 Placepot positions have been claimed by seven-year-olds, statistics which include five (20/1--7/1--4/1—4/1*** & 6/4) winners.  INVITATION ONLY and SHATTERED LOVE are the vintage representatives which jump of the page, with KEMBOY offered up as a lively outsider to consider if you want to take on the shorter priced selections.  TERREFORT in the other horse in the field which could potentially win the event from my viewpoint, though I’m sticking with the vintage stats, just for a change!

Favourite factor: A changing scenario to the terms and conditions of this event means that we have just seven renewals to take into account.  Six of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, three of which won their relevant events at 6/4 (twice) & 4/1***.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.10: 11 of the last 14 winners of the 'Pertempts' have carried 11-4 or less, statistics which eliminate three of the 24 runners this time around.  SORT IT OUT, FORZA MILAN, PROTEK DES FLOS and DELTA WORK are offered against the remaining 20 contenders, the pick of which might prove to be Glenloe.

Favourite factor: Only two market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 14 years (one winner), which from an each way perspective in a fiercely competitive hurdle event, is particularly important for the layers.  Going back further in time, it's worth noting that just two market leaders has prevailed during the last 21 years.

 

2.50: You will be in a much better position to assess this event (particularly from a Placepot perspective) when an official comment is made about the possible participation of DOUVAN who fell yesterday when going well in the ‘Queen Mother’.  Not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket, I’m opting for FRODON to accompany UN DE SCEAUX in my permutation because if I offer stable companion Douvan into the mix and he is withdrawn, the units will be transferred onto to the favourite which I already have on  my side.  FRODON offers some value for money in the contest anyway, with Paul Nicholls finally making a challenge this week in terms of his number of entries. I would be shouting louder that most if Cue Card returns to his best form but he had a mighty tough race at Ascot the last day and this might prove to be a race too far this winter, given his advancing years.

Favourite factor: Four of the last six favourites have won whilst eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.30: UNOWHATIMEANHARRY was beaten at odds of 5/6 in this event last year and up until the recent rain/snow arrived, I had put a line through his name but market support over the last few days has intensified whereby I now believe that ‘Harry’ could become involved in the finish again.  The ground might have gone against THE NEW ONE, not necessarily because Nigel’s grand servant cannot handle such conditions but over this type of trip, he remains an unknown quantity.  My heart is ruling my head by including the old boy from a Placepot perspective alongside L’AMI SERGE who looks a tad too big in the betting at 12/1, odds which are generally available at the time of writing.  Wholestone receives the reserve nomination at around the 20/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 25 market leaders—9 winners—8 placed—8 unplaced.  First three in betting: 69 representatives—16 winners—23 placed—30 unplaced.

 

4.10: Known for many years as the 'Mildmay of Flete', this event takes on a ‘new’ name these days though whatever titles are prefixed to contests at the meeting, trainers still target their horses for the respective events the same way. Although eight-year-olds have 'only' won five of the last 19 renewals, win and place investors should consider that vintage representatives have secured 31 of the 65 available place positions during the study period.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have claimed just three victories and eleven place positions, leaving horses lower down the handicap to run riot.  Putting the stats and facts together I’ll offer a short list of KINGS SOCKS, GUITAR PETE, WILLIE BOY and MIDNIGHT SHOT.  Some money was developing in the (realistic) positive exchange queue for King’s Odyssey at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite (six years ago) has obliged since 1999, whilst ‘recent’ winners having included those returned at 66/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-25/1-18/1—16/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.  That said, eight of the 15 market leaders during the study period finished in the frame.

 

4.50: Willie Mullins has won both renewals and LAURINA is likely to be another Odds on chance for the trainer, despite Ruby Walsh missing out on the ride (through injury) this time around.  There is much to be said for offering fancied horses in the last leg of our favourite bet, especially at the bigger meetings.  We can lay off at extremely short prices in place terms if we have reached the final leg safely, if the ‘Pot’ is looking as though it will pay a decent dividend.  That is not the only reason for adding MARIAS BENEFIT into the equation however, because I firmly believe that the six-year-old will give the favourite a real run for her money.  CAP SOLEIL easily appeals as the alternative (each way) selection of you are looking to take on the shorter priced contenders.

Favourite factor: Willie Mullins trained favourites have won the two renewals at odds of 11/8 & 8/11.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Cheltenham card on Thursday:

11 runners—Willie Mullins

8—Paul Nicholls

8—Nigel Twiston-Davies

7—Nicky Henderson

7—Colin Tizzard

6—Gordon Elliott

5—Henry De Bromhead

4—Warren Greatrex

3—Harry Fry

3—Philip Hobbs

3—David Pipe

3—Venetia Williams

+ 50 different trainers who each saddle just one or two runners on the card

118 declared runners (120 last year)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hexham: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Towcester: £17.00 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 laced – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 14th February

MUSSELBURGH – FEBRUARY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: No meeting

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Misfits), 2 (So Satisfied) & 5 (Dun Far Good)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Silver Concorde) & 2 (The Road Home)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Divine Spear), 3 (Derintother Yank)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Titus Bolt), 8 (Our Lucas) & 6 (Devils Water)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Canny Style) & 4 (Nendrum)

Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Professor Plum), 5 (Rising Marienbard) & 1 (Nefyn Bay)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: MISFITS is proving almost as strong as SO SATISFIED in the markets overnight whilst DUN FAW GOOD is the each way alternative call. Course and distance winner MISFITS is the first of nine runners on the card for Lucinda Russell who looks booked for a good day in Edinburgh.

Favourite factor: This is a new fixture on the calendar.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/4—So Satisfied (soft)

1/4—Misfits (soft)

 

2.30: This should be something of an exercise gallop for SILVER CONCORDE over lone rival THE ROAD HOME though Lucinda Russell’s latter named raider in unbeaten at the track (albeit via a 1/1 ratio) though that said, Silver Concorde’s 2/3 record is none too shabby.  I’ll be ‘in the bar’ (as is usually the case in ‘win only’ events) hoping that both runners come home safely, with the best horse on the day prevailing.

Course winners in the second race:

2/3—Silver Concorde (2 x good)

1/1—The Road Home (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.00: DIVINE SPEAR looks another ‘good thing’ on the card, with Nicky Henderson having offered just one long distance traveller on Wednesday.  Musselburgh is a decent steeplechase track from my viewpoint whilst all races suit front runners in general terms.  Few horse come from a long way back in the pack at this venue.  How much ground DERINTOTHER YANK will have to make up turning for home in an unknown factor, though Donald McCain’s raider is the only threat to the market leader according to the gospel of yours truly.

 

3.30: DEVILS WATER has failed to complete the course on his last three starts, though Jane Walton’s raider could offer a little each way value at around the 16/1 mark this morning if you fancy a small speculative win and place wager.  TITUS BOLT is another each way horse to consider, albeit more logical winners in the field include OUR LUCAS and (arguably) Toarmandowithlove.

 

4.00: Kevin Ryan cannot do a lot wrong at present, given his recent 5/16 ratio which includes a 66/1 winner for good measure!  CANNY STYLE will start at the other end of the starting price spectrum this afternoon, with Brian Hughes expected to boot home another winner north of the border.  NENDRUM is emerging as a semi-serious horse on the exchanges this morning, with plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Sandy Thomson’s raider which is interesting, given Sandy’s 10/1 winner at the track last week.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Canny Style (good)

1/2—Nendrum (good to soft)

 

4.30: A tough Placepot finale in all honesty whereby I am searching for half decent potential ‘outsiders’ offering value for money on the Placepot front. PROFESSOR PLUM and RISING MARIENBARD appeal as much as anything else, whilst I will add NEFYN BAY into the Placepot equation in a race which fails to set the pulse racing.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Nefyn Bay (soft)

1/5—Professor Plum (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

9 runners—Lucinda Russell (7/40 +15) – 34/248 – loss of 13 points

4—Victor Thompson (0/4) – 1/17 – level profit/loss

3—James Ewart (0/7) – 13/81 +8

3—Donald McCain (4/20 +1) – 28/134 +27

2—Stuart Coltherd (0/2) – 2/27 – loss of 12

2—Susan Corbett (0/15) – 3/55 – loss of 37

2—Keith Dalgleish (5/14 +1) – 11/44 – loss of 1

2—Micky Hammond (0/5) – 1/30 loss of 28

2—Iain Jardine (0/17) – 4/47 – loss of 7

2—Rebecca Menzies (1/9 – loss of 3) – 5/35 +21

2—Sandy Thompson (6/18 +22) – 16/65 +62

2—Alistair Whillans (2/10 +2) – 4/45 – loss of 12

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £193.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £36.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £9.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaaced

 

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

2.20 Southwell : Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG WON at 11/4 Held up in mid-division, took keen hold, headway to chase leaders over 4f out, led over 1f out, ridden clear inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths...

We aim to keep the current run going with Wednesday's...

2.40 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f novice handicap chase on soft ground worth £5,588 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner here at Towcester on soft ground just six days ago, beating the field by six lengths at a trip just half a furlong further than today's contest.

His trainer, Fergal O'Brien is in fine form right now with 6 winners from 12 (50% SR) over the past fortnight producing level stakes profits of 8.34pts at an ROI of 69.5% with 4 winners from 6 (66.6% SR) for 9.84pts (+164% ROI) in the last 7 days with his chasers finishing 1P111 so far this month!

More long-term, his NH handicap record since the start of 2013 stands at 124 winners from 839 (14.8% SR) for 142pts at an ROI of 16.9%, including the following of relevance today...

  • males : 106/691 (15.3%) for 144.85pts (+21%)
  • chasers : 77/474 (16.2%) for 121.21pts (+25.6%)
  • on Soft : 26/169 (15.4%) for 28.72pts (+17%)
  • 8 yr olds : 28/161 (17.4%) for 64.75pts (+40.2%)
  • ridden by Alain Cawley : 10/91 (11%) for 60.23pts (+66.2%)
  • and here at Towcester : 6/35 (17.1%) for 10.11pts (+28.9%)

WITH...6-10 yr old male chasers on soft ground winning 18 of 87 (20.7% SR) for 47.16pts (+54.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

And a quick heads up...I'm on airport duty tomorrow evening, collecting my daughter from her German exchange trip, so Thursday's pick will be very late like Tuesday's was, if not later!

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 8th February

HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 8 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £10.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners + 2 placed)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 6 (Marmont), 7 (Kaddys Dream) & 3 (Now Listen Here)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Abbreviate), 3 (Nobuttaboy) & 5 (Free Range)

Leg 3 (2.15): 5 (Vinndication) & 4 (Theclockisticking)

Leg 4 (2.50): 5 (Wild Blue Yonder) & 6 (Zipple Back)

Leg 5 (3.20): 7 (Minella For Me), 2 (Bally GIlbert) & 3 (Glenforde)

Leg 6 (3.55): 1 (Hoke Colburn), 4 (Braw Angus) & 6 (Boss Mans Ladder)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: At 7/2 and 8/1 in a place or two at the time of writing, MARMONT and NOW LISTEN HERE are a couple of potential movers (respectively) in the markets this morning, though not enough to get involved with aside from our favourite wager.  There is also quite a bit of realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges for KADDYS DREAM from Robin Dickin’s in form yard, the trainer having saddled six of his last eleven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Huntingdon with which to open proceedings

 

1.45: Seven-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals of this contest, with ABBREVIATE and NOBUTTABOY in place to extend the advantage still further between them if they are up to the task.  FREE RANGE appears to be the potential joker in the pack to deny the relevant vintage representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twelve years.  Four favourites won at 7/2-5/2-9/4- 13/8 via nine renewals during the period.

 

2.15: Five and six-year-olds have shared ten of the last eleven contests (six-year-olds lead 6-4), though I have only left the stat in for those of you that keep records, as all six contenders represent the two vintages this time around.  This is an interesting puzzle to solve despite the lack of numbers, with VINNDICATION and THECLOCKISTICKING marginally preferred to their four rivals. Even the outsider (Dell Oro) is being backed on the exchanges at the time of writing which adds mystery to the potential drama in the making.

Favourite factor: Although favourites have won four renewals during the last twelve years, only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the ‘Sidney Banks’:

1/1—Equus Secretus (good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Theclockisticking (good)

 

2.50: Eight of the last nine winners in total carried a minimum burden of 10-12 which eliminates seven of the nine strong field, if you take jockey claims into account.  RED INDIAN and DELL A’RCA are left but even then, Ben Pauling’s first named raider has (seemingly) a preferred option at Towcester this afternoon.  It all makes a messy affair and no mistake, whereby a chance is taken that WILD BLUE YONDER can make up for lost time having has just two races in the thick end of four years.  If the ‘bounce factor’ has not kicked in since an encouraging effort at Newbury in December, Alan King’s raider can at least gain a Placepot position en route to better things in the spring.  With Red Indian and probably Brillaire Momento being re-routed to Towcester, we’re left with ZIPPLE BACK and (arguably) DELL’ ARCA to consider as the main dangers.

Favourite factor: Three (11/10, 15/8 & 2/1) favourites have won during the study period, though five of the last eight market leaders have failed to secure toteplacepot positions.

 

3.20: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last seven contests (and four of the last ten), with MINELLA FOR ME being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Tom George is another trainer who has his team in decent order whereby the eight-year-old is the first name on the team sheet, followed by BALLY GILBERT and GLENFORDE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven market leaders finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

1/3—Ratify (soft)

 

3.55: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5 and the trio that catch the eye are HOKE COLBURN, BRAW ANGUS and BOSS MANS LADDER, the three horses being listed in order of preference. The overnight reserve nomination is offered to Amberjam who would have been included in the Placepot mix but for the claimer in the saddle which has enabled Lucy Wadham’s raider to slip into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Six of the last thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders, two of which were returned as joint favourites.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Braw Angus (soft)

1/1—Amberjam (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) followed by the last five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Kim Bailey (2/8 – loss of 3 points) – 19/83 +40 points

5—Ben Pauling (2/8 – loss of 3) – 10/42 +85

3—Warren Greatrex (0/4) – 6/38 loss of 19

3—Alan King (1/15 – loss of 12) – 22/107 – loss of 28

3—Gary Moore (2/17 – loss of 2) – 16/97 +8

2—Robin Dickin (0/4) – 1/12 +7

2—Stuart Edmunds (2/6 +4) – 4/16 +2

2—John Groucott (First runners this season at the track) – 0/1

2—Harry Fry (0/2) – 4/16 – loss of 2 points

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 2/28 – loss of 15

2—Dan Skelton (2/19 – loss of 9

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £58.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £49.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £20.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 1st February

WINCANTON – FEBRUARY 1

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.50 (7 favourites: 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 12 (Aardwolf) & 5 (Molineaux)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Persian Delight), 3 (San Pedro De Senam) & 2 (Valhalla)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Drops Of Jupitor), 6 (Jubilympics) & 8 (Rosemary Russet)

Leg 4 (3.00): 3 (On The Road), 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 4 (Here’s Herbie)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Siruh Du Lac), 2 (Kayf Adventure) & 1 (Vic De Touzain)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Unioniste)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: I fully understand why the bookmakers are only offering odds on prices about MOLINEAUX in the dead of night, though it would take a brave investor to pile in too heavily on a horse which faces its tenth assignment as a maiden.  Warren Greatrex looks the main threat here with the in form trainer having declared AARDWOLF who reached the heady heights of 93 on the level as a winner of three races.  Not beaten far at Pontefract on soft ground on one occasion, Richard Johnson’s mount should handle conditions as well any of his rivals whereby at the odds of offer at 11/4, AARDWOLF would be the marginal call.  If that price drifts too much over the next few hours however, my interest from a win perspective would be diluted.

Favourite factor: The first two (odds on) favourites had prevailed at odds of 1/4 & 8/11 before the next market leader could only plod home in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 6/1, 14/1 & 10/1.  Thankfully, the race reverted to type last year when the 5/4 favourite obliged.

 

1.50: As winners on heavy ground, SAN PEDRO DE SENAM and VALHALLA are entitled to plenty of respect, though this could be the chance for PERSIAN DELIGHT to make up for lost time as an eight-year-old having only tackled seven assignments to date, two of which were successful.  All three runners are included in my permutation but that said, I would like the latter named Paul Nicholls raider to score, if only to see how good the Lucarno gelding might have been if avoiding injuries down the years.  Maybe it’s not too late in the day for PERSIAN DELIGHT to pick up some decent prizes from here on in.

Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (9/4**, 5/4, Evens & 10/11) winners.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/3—Persian Delight (soft)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.25: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, yet no vintage representatives were involved twelve months ago.  That is not the case this time around however, with eight of the nine entries representing the vintage!  Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong just now and though Solstice Twilight will struggle to become involved at the business end of the contest from my viewpoint, stable companion DROPS OF JUPITOR will go close to extending the trainer’s recent tally which stands at 6/10. That said, this ground will be softer than when she has scored before, whilst a new trip is also tried for the first time whereby the trade press quote of 4/6 looks plenty skinny enough.  JUBILYMPICS and ROSEMARY RUSSET boast claims on the best of their form, whilst Kayley Woollacott (Dinos Benefit) will prefer the peace and quiet to the hubbub at Cheltenham on Saturday. This is her (south-west) manor however, whereby there will be a massive ovation for Kayley and the team if the mare can lift this prize.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eleven contests, whilst favourites came to the gig on a five timer two years ago, only for the 11/10 market leader to find the 6/4 second favourite too strong close home.

 

3.00: Bryony Frost takes her only booked ride (until Sunday at the earliest at the time of writing) aboard CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK and with Lizzie Kelly aboard another horse in the next race with similar (decent) claims, the ladies could well show the boys the way home, as was the case at Prestbry Park on Saturday of course.  There is (at least) one potential thorn standing in her way here as ON THE ROAD is re-routed to timber following two efforts over the larger obstacles of late.  Proven on heavy ground (gold and silver medals via three relevant assignments to date), the Evan Williams raider would go very close here if back to his best.  Lucy Gardner (Here’s Herbie) and Bridget Andrews (Hurricane Hollow) also have rides in the race, making the girls 4/6 chances to land the spoils between them before the form book is taken into account.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/3 market leader (frustratingly) finished fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position in the process as did last the next 15/8 favourite.  The following 13/8 (Paul Nicholls trained) market leader duly obliged before last year’s 11/4 favourite fell when moving into contention.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Captain Cattistock (soft)

 

3.35: Three of the five winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-8 and with the projected heavy conditions in place, it would come as no surprise if the Siruh Du Lac went mighty close with Lizzie Kelly still offering great value for her three pound claim.  Remarkably, this is Lizzie’s first ride since winning on Agrapart at Cheltenham on Saturday and for some reason, SIRUH DU LAC is her only mount for the foreseeable future – wake up trainers!  That said, VIC DE TOUZAIN is too big at 12/1 in a place this morning, whilst the ground has come right for KAYF ADVENTURE and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished ‘in the three’ (exact science) to date. The statistics include two winning favourites which were both returned at 9/4.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on card:

1/2—Kayf Adventure (heavy)

1/1—Le Boizelo (heavy)

 

4.15: I have made the point several times before that Hunter Chase events have the best record in terms of winning favourites under either code of the sport and with the conditions of this event hugely favouring UNIONISTE, the trend will surely be extended in this grade/company.  Anyone who knocks the exchanges should take into the account the ‘insurance’ that we ‘Potters’ can take out if we have successfully made it through to the final leg of our favourite wager, especially when we can ‘lay back’ at odds of around 1/6 to at least ensure that we are in a ‘no lose’ situation on the day if need be.  UNIONISTE would be giving this pair an additional 15 pounds+ in a handicap event, whereby the Paul Nicholls raider represents ‘banker’ material, given the opportunity of ‘insurance’ if we need it.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the frame, though we have had to wait until the last two years for the (8/13 & 4/9) market leaders to oblige from a win perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wincanton card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Anthony Honeyball (3/13 – loss of 1 point) – 9/65 – loss of 24

4—Paul Nicholls (6/34 – loss of 4) – 80/245 – loss of 55

4—Colin Tizzard (6/44 (loss of 21) – 27/225 – loss of 72

3—Philp Hobbs (2/10 – loss of 10) – 23/153 – loss of 38

3—Neil Mulholland (2/20 – loss of 13) – 13/141 – loss of 51

2—Gary Moore (1/7 – loss of 4) – 3/43 – loss of 23

2—Jeremy Scott (2/12 +1) – 10/101 – loss of 43

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 5/32 +13

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £231.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,688.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Southwell: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st December

EXETER - DECEMBER 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £50.20 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 5 (Ebonys Encore), 1 (Waiheke) & 4 (Drops Of Jupitor)

Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Casablanca Mix) & 5 (The Nipper)

Leg 3 (1.35): 4 (Admiral’s Secret), 10 (Triple Secret) & 7 (The Cider Maker)

Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (Overtown Express) & 2 (Le Rocher)

Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (Rockpoint), 2 (Night Of Sin) & 11 (Trans Express)

Leg 6 (3.15): 2 (Who’s My Jockey) & 1 (Polydora)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals though unfortunately, Harry Fry is without a representative having won three of the last four contests.  The pick of the five-year-olds on this occasion appear to be EBONYS ENCORE and DROPS OF JUPITOR, albeit the latter named Anthony Honeyball raider is only four pounds better off with WAIHEKE having been beaten by nine lengths by that rival over course and distance last time out.  The worry with the projected favourite however is that Philip Hobbs has only won with one of his seventeen runners during the last fortnight.  Conversely, Anthony’s runners have (arguably) never been in better form.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (15/8 & 8/11) gold medallist.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Waiheke (soft)

 

1.05:  CASABLANCA MIX won at the fourth time of asking in this (mostly) green and pleasant land under the useful five pound claimer Ned Curtis and the pilot retains the ride aboard Nicky Henderson’s raider.  Nicky das saddled ten of his last 23 runners to winning effect, having secured a 935/1 four-timer yesterday, albeit via eleven runners on the day.  Connections of CASABLANCA MIX (running under slightly softer conditions this time around) might have most to fear THE NIPPER who has been the subject of some support overnight.
Favourite factor: Both of the (even money and 1/2) favourites have won their respective events to date.

 

1.35: Six-year-olds have won four of the seven contests to date, whilst six of the seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-1.  No six-year-olds were involved two years ago which makes the vintage trends more impressive, whereby Vic Dartnall’s ADMIRAL’S SECRET is the first name on my team sheet.  Fellow vintage representative TRIPLE SECRET is a soft ground course and distance winner who will not be far away I’ll wager, whilst THE CIDER MAKER keeps being nibbled on the exchanges wherever someone offers anything approaching the 7/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites which managed to yield Placepot positions thus far did so by securing two gold, two silver medals and one of the bronze variety via seven renewals.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

2/7—Midnight Request (2 x good to soft)

3/10—Only Gorgeous (good – good to firm – soft)

1/4—Triple Chief (soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.05: Favourites come to the gig on a four-timer, whilst the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.  That trend will be extended this time around with just the two runners having been declared.  Heavy ground winner OVERTOWN EXPRESS is Harry Fry’s only runner on the card, the trainer having saddled four winners at the corresponding meeting during the last four years.  LE ROCHER will not prove to be a ‘pushover’ however and both horses are included in the Placepot permutation accordingly.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have won, though the other five market leaders all finished out of the frame.  The 2013 event was a particularly galling experience for favourite backers as the 4/9 favourite simply refused to race.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Overtown Express (heavy)

 

2.40: Seven of the ten renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which unfortunately eliminates just four runners on this occasion.  That leaves seven contenders to consider, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be ROCKPOINT and NIGHT OF SIN.  Sue Gardner is one of those trainers that I just can’t call the right way.  If I opt for one of her runners it finishes out of the frame and vice versa.  Sue saddled last year’s winner and though TRANS EXPRESS runs out of the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap, I’m adding Lucy’s mount into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Only two of the 12 favourites (3/1 & 4/11 winners of their respective events) have obliged to date.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/5—Trans Express (good & soft)

 

3.15:  Despite the negative comments regarding the Philip Hobbs stable mentioned in the opening event, it’s difficult to look beyond WHO’S MY JOCKEY in the ‘lucky last’  Only POLYDORA can be fancied to get the marker leader off the bridal in this grade/company according to yours truly.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Exeter card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Exeter card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Vic Dartnall (1/8 +2) – 44/270 – loss of 17 points

4—David Pipe (2/19 - loss of 4 points) – 60/455 – loss of 160

3—Sue Gardner (3/19 +2) – 26/262 – loss of 61

3—Colin Tizzard (5/21 – loss of 3 points) – 52/399 – loss of 124

3—Robert Walford (1/12 – loss of 8 points) – 9/69 – loss of 19

3—Nick Williams (1/4 – loss of 2 points) – 24/143 – loss of 12

2—Brian Barr (0/2) – 0/26

2—David Dennis (1/8 – loss of 2 points) – 3/35 – loss of 23

2—Polly Gundry (0/3) – 2/37 – loss of 1

2—Philip Hobbs (2/15 – level profit/loss) – 253/1238 – loss of 196

2—Gary Moore (0/1) – 11/63 – loss of 4

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/7) – 37/317 – loss of 65

2—Katy Price (First runners this season) – 1/11 – loss of 7

2—Jeremy Scott (1/14 – loss of 6 points) – 24/212 – loss of 70

2—Evan Williams (4/12 +17) – 30/158 +41

2—Laura Young (0/7) – 4/103 – loss of 65

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £198.80 – 5 favourites – 2 winners & 3 unplaced (1 Non runner)

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Southwell: £22.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday November 30

TAUNTON – NOVEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Challico) & 4 (Diese Des Bieffes)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Brahms De Clermont) & 2 (Barn Hill)

Leg 3 (1.20): 3 (One Of Us), 1 (Gold Mountain) & 2 (Pengo’s Boy)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (Lovely Job), 4 (Beau De Brizais) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)

Leg 5 (2.20): 2 (Cabernet D’Alene), 10 (Serveontime) & 8 (Goal)

Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Double Accord), 3 (Thegirlfrommilan) & 2 (More Than Luck)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Two obvious places to start and finish in this event with Paul Nicholls (CHALLICO) taking on Nicky Henderson (DIESE DES BEIFFES).  This is very much Paul’s part of the country; hence the two horses being listed in order of preference.  Next!

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Challico (good to firm)

1/1—Show On The Road (good)

 

12.50: Paul Nicholls should secure a quick double on the card having entered BRAHMS DE CLERMONT, albeit his Kayf Tara representative has been recorded as a beaten favourite on his last two outings at odds of 4/6 and 5/4.  The Philip Hobbs newcomer BARN HILL is a well related type and as the only trainer to have secured a double on the corresponding card (2013) during the last five years, Philip’s entry catches the eye in another poor race with which to start the meeting.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same stats apply. The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Brahms De Clermont (good)

 

1.20: I have made the point several times down the years that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum trip offer the worst favourite record in either sector of the sport and the favourite stats below suggest that this is a good race to confirm that point.  Having secured just three bronze medals from six assignments to date, ONE OF US might not appear to be the logical call but there is enough money in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night to suggest that this could be his day.  GOLD MOUNTAIN offers some value for money from a Placepot perspective given the good ground which appears to suit Harry Cobden’s mount, whilst course winner PENGO’S BOY completes my trio against the remaining four runners in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won via seven contests, though six winners scored at a top price of 11/2.  Five of the eight market leaders snared Placepot positions

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/4—Gold Mountain (good to firm)

1/3—Pengo’s Boy (good to soft)

 

1.50: This could easily be diluted into a ‘win only’ contest and the trio to concentrate on appear to be LOVELY JOB, BEAU DE BRIZAIS and CAPTAIN BUCK’S, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  I suggested yesterday that the two four runner races at Wetherby would ensure that the eventual Placepot dividend would be worth winning and so it proved, despite the fact that favourites won both events.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite prevailed before last year’s 10/3 market leader was badly hampered at the third last before unseating his rider.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—Captain Buck’s

2/4—Beau Du Brizais (good & good to firm)

 

2.20: Ambrais Des Marais look the most vulnerable favourite on the card with 5/2 freely available via the exchanges about what is a 7/4 chance right across the bookmaking boards.  Value for money appears to be in the offing about the 4/1 quote by Hills/Betfred/Tote relating to the chance of CABERNET D’ALENE. Both of the Nick Williams/Lizzie Kelly raiders on the card have decent chances according to the gospel of yours truly, with their five-year-old raider possibly following One Of Us into the area reserved for winners this afternoon.  Others to consider include SERVEONTIME and GOAL who is marginally preferred to Ballyegan, mainly because of the weight stats.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first (10/17), before the 15/8 market leader twelve months ago found a (Paul Nicholls trained) 12/1 chance too strong at the business end of the contest.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg:

1/3—Cabernet D’Alene

1/8—Goal (good)

 

2.55: Eight of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which reduces the ‘dead eight’ field down to four if you take the figures seriously.  The fact that seven-year-olds have won three of the last eight renewals suggests that DOUBLE ACCORD and THEGIRLFROMMILAN (10/1 with Hills looks to big) are the pair to home in on, from a Placepot perspective at least.  I’m adding the insurance value of MORE THAN LUCK into the mix.

Favourite factor: Two winning favourites to report, with six of the last seven market leaders having finished in the frame.  Seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Double Accord (good)

4/15—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Thursday followed by their ratio at the track this season + Profit/loss accrued:

4 runners—Philip Hobbs (0/3)

4—Paul Nicholls (2/6 – loss of 3 points)

3—Johnny Farrelly (0/4)

3—Evan Williams (0/3)

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/1)

2—Vic Dartnall (No previous runners at Taunton this season)

2—Alexandra Dunn (0/4)

2—Jimmy Frost (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (1/1 +3)

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/2 +1)

2—Tim Vaughan (0/4)

2—Robert Walford (No previous runners)

2—Nick Williams (1/3 – slight profit)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: Meeting abandoned

Towcester: £211.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.10 Catterick : The New Pharaoh @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Switched left start, held up in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, nearest at finish ...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

3.10 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sailors Warn @ 3/1 or 11/4 BOG

Why?

A Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 1m7.5f on good to firm ground...

This 10 yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago, but was beaten by 4.5 lengths last time out on unsuitably soft ground at a higher grade than today. he's well rested and down in class, so should go well for trainer Ian Williams...

...whose NH handicappers are 53/248 (21.4% SR) for 73pts (+29.4% ROI) since the start of last year, including...

  • males @ 46/214 (21.5%) for 77.2pts (+36.1%)
  • hurdlers are 35/165 (21.2%) for 51.9pts (+31.5%)
  • at trips of 2m 0.5f and shorter : 16/76 (21.1%) for 20.7pts (+27.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 18/61 (29.5%) for 41.7pts (+68.4%)
  • and 9/10 yr olds are 10/43 (23.3%) for 29.4pts (+68.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sailors Warn @ 3/1 or 11/4 BOG, which was offered by Bet365  & Sunbets respectively at 5.45pm on Tuesday. I'll be settling up at the lower of the two, of course and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday May 22

WINDSOR – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £15.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 7 (Out Of The Flames) & 3 (Ellthea)

Leg 2 (6.25): 4 (Dathanna) & 6 (Little Miss Lilly)

Leg 3 (6.55): 4 (Perfect Quest), 5 (Lorelina) & 3 (Turning The Table)

Leg 4 (7.25): 7 (Raucous), 9 (Dancing Star) & 5 (Mr Lupton)

Leg 5 (7.55): 13 (Tirania) & 6 (Italian Heiress)

Leg 6 (8.25): 8 (Genuine Approval), 6 (Fast And Hot) & 2 (Ebbisham)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.55: Richard Hannon’s OUT OF THE FLAMES made a pleasing debut at Ascot ten days ago, though readers looking to back the horse from a win perspective might care to look at the favourite stats below before plunging in.  Either way, the 5/4 odds chalked up by the lads and lasses in the trade press office are fanciful in the extreme, with 4/9 being touted by most layers at the time of writing.  Mark Johnston sent a horse down from the north to beat the market leader twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Karl Burke this time around with the trainer having offered the green light to his Kodiac filly ELLTHEA, who is a half sister to John Gosden’s useful Von Blucher who was beaten a neck in a warm Sandown event on his debut.

Favourite factor: Both (8/11) favourites had obliged before last year’s 1/5 market leader could only finish second behind a 5/1 chance, albeit Richard Hannon’s raider secured a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

6.25: I suggest you read the details below in the favourite factor which outline the problems within the sport at the ‘top level’.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that it should be safe to headline Charlie Appleby’s newcomer DATHANNA, despite the defeat of one of their juvenile hot-pots at Ripon yesterday.  This Dubawi filly will obviously need a trip sooner rather than later though that said, she should be good enough to score at the first time of asking, though I would not want to take too short a price about the March foal.  Clive Cox has won with three of his five runners at this venue already this season, whilst saddling three of his eight juveniles to winning effect.  Money for Clive’s February foal LITTLE MISS LILLY would add interest to proceedings accordingly.

Favourite factor: This was a new race on the card twelve months ago, though not just because of the (then) recent change of maiden races to Novice events. This event had also been 'promoted' to Class 4 status.  It’s a new race again now because the event is now contested over six furlongs instead of five so why then (taking both factors into account), do the BHA have this race listed as the sixth renewal of the ‘same contest’?  It was the BHA which ‘changed the goalposts’ 15 months ago, yet they have ignored that factor when listing ‘past results’ for this event!

 

6.55: Conditions should not witness races being abandoned at Windsor this evening compared to the sport of offer just seven days ago.  Indeed, we have an opposite scenario is place with fast drying ground in evidence as opposed to rain falling on dry turf this time last week.  Connections of LORELINA might not want the sun to sine too strongly with Andrew Balding’s raider having shown a preference for racing on ground with plenty of moisture below the surface.  That said, four-year-olds have won six of the seven contests to date, whilst snaring ten of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions whereby LORELINA is fancied as the main threat to Clive Cox’s hat trick seeker PERFECT QUEST.  David Simcock is slowly getting his runners into the type of form which produced 17 winners in June last year though he is four behind his April/May figures in 2016 (six gold medallists as opposed to ten twelve months ago) whereby the trainer will want TURNING THE TABLE to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame thus far via seven renewals (one winner).

Windsor record of course winners in the third race on the card:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/3—Perfect Quest (good)

 

7.25: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and with fast improving The Tin Money having lifted the prize twelve months ago, RAUCOUS has a similar look judged on his April success at Chelmsford following a gelding operation.  DANCING STAR and MR LUPTON are the other vintage representatives in the field with both horses boasting solid claims on the best of their form.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until last year for another winning market leader to come along.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

3/4—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

1/2—Dancing Star (good)

 

7.55: TIRANIA is quoted at 8/11 in some lists this morning, as opposed to the 11/10 trade press quote.  In case that differential does not sound too extreme, the odds equate to a horse being backed from 4/1 to 12/5 from a percentage perspective.  Either way, Pat Cosgrave’s mount is expected to score from ITALIAN HEIRESS.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen renewals during which time, eleven gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.25: Nine of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 (four of the last ten gold medallists have been burdened with 8-13).  FAST AND HOT and GENUINE APPROVAL are fancied to land the Placepot dividend for us if we are 'live' going into the final leg accordingly.  Connections could have most to fear from EBBISHAM whose trainer Jim Boyle has bounced back to form during the last couple of weeks.  FAST AND HOT has been all the rage overnight, though some quiet money has been recorded for GENUINE APPROVAL whose 25/1 trade press quote looks fanciful in the extreme at the time of writing.  If the four-year-old continues to attract support into single figures, we can expect a decent effort to be forthcoming.  Trainer John Butler saddled a 20/1 winner at the Dente meeting at York last week for good measure.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 13 of the last 21 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Essenaitch (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (0/2)

4—David Evans (1/15 – loss of 4 points)

4—Richard Hannon (0/10)

3—Clive Cox (3/5 – Profit of 22 points)

3—Richard Fahey (No runners)

3—William Haggas (No runners)

2—Karl Burke (No runners)

2—Dean Ivory (0/9)

2—Mark Usher (0/1)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £139.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winnwers & 3 placed

Leicester: £162.50 -6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Redcar: £346.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Towcester: £63.90 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday May 15

WINDSOR – MAY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2.50 (3 favourites: 1 winners & 2 placed—meeting abandoned after three races due to unsafe ground)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 6 (Highland Cradle) & 3 (Fire Chief)

Leg 2 (5.50): 4 (Comrade Conrad), 1 (Crowned Eagle) & 6 (Secret Advisor)

Leg 3 (6.20): 4 (Last Voyage), 6 (Wildnightinvegas) & 5 (Straight Ash)

Leg 4 (6.50): 4 (Time To Exceed) & 5 (Gulliver)

Leg 5 (7.20): 2 (Kool Kompany), 5 (Firmament) & 7 (Mitchum Swagger)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Call Me Grump) & 2 (Dragons Voice)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

*The weather has an important part to play today if rain hits all parts of the country as has been forecast.  There was plenty of wet weather in and around London yesterday and with plenty more to (supposedly) come today, the ground could be anything but good by the time the evening meeting at Windsor gets under way.  I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).  This is not a message for you to ‘lump on’, the brief is simply for you to consider from each way angles as savers, if you fancy other horses in the respective events.  Either way, best of luck and keep an eye on the weather as you watch the afternoon unfold especially.  If the rain arrives as it is meant to the length and breadth of the land, the general advice is to minimise bets today as bookmakers love nothing more than fast changing ground which crates havoc as far as the form book is concerned on a regular basis.  If you want confirmation of how the weather looks to the west of London, Kempton (stages an afternoon NH meeting) is not far from Windsor whereby conditions should be similar, if not exactly the same.

 

As I have changed the general format this morning (to a fashion), I will offer Windsor details this season following four meetings:

Average Placepot dividend: £186.23 – 24 favourites – 6 winners – 4 placed – 14 unplaced (exact science)

Leading represented trainers tonight:

3/6—Clive Cox (+23 LSP) – 2 runners: Don’t Blame Me (6.50) & Mach One (7.50)

2/5—Sir Michael Stoute (+2 LSP) – 1 runner: Highland Cradle (5.20)

2/6—Roger Charlton (+9 LSP) – 1 runner: Comrade Conrad (5.50)

 

Back to the race by race analysis:

 

5.20: As I have already suggested, minimise your bets if plenty of rain has fallen as has been forecast for all parts of the country.  Although junior (three-year-old) runners tend to win these mixed vintage maiden events, I offered strong reasoning regarding last year’s successful 11/10 market leader.  This renewal should revert to type however with Sir Michael Stoute having declared three-year-old HIGHLAND CRADLE who boasts obvious claims.  Charlie Fellowes is not a trainer who grabs many headlines though it’s worth noting that his last two runners have won, with CHIEFOFCHIEFS being his only runner on the Windsor card.  Out of interest, Charlie’s other runner today is Fire Tree (4.00 Wetherby).

Favourite factor: All ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include five winners.  All nine gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

5.50: It would be as well to glance down at the favourite details below before you assess this event.  Just ten pounds separate this thirteen strong field which also suggests that it might pay to be a layer rather than a player on this occasion.  That option has no bearing on the Placepot however, whereby I have to be positive, offering the trio of COMRADE CONRAD, CROWNED EAGLE and SECRET ADVISOR to get us safely through to the next leg of our favourite wager, though any 'win money' will be safely locked away for another day.  That said, an each way saver could be in the offing regarding FASTNET SPIN for reasons offered earlier.  At 50/1, the David Evans raider might represent each way value if the heavens open.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last nine renewals during which time, winners were also returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-14/1-10/1.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Comrade Conrad (good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/2—Fastnet Spin (soft)

 

6.20:  As every reader will know, ‘Team Hannon’ has monopolised juvenile races here in recent years though Richard had only sent six runners without success (via four meetings) to Windsor this season before declaring five for tonight’s card.  Richard saddles two runners (both quoted around the 8/1 mark) which makes for interesting reading, namely STRAIGHT ASH alongside his Kodiac newcomer WILDNIGHTINVEGAS.  If Richard is to be denied here, LAST VOYAGE is the obvious juvenile to home in on, given Charlie Appleby’s 4/4 record with his two-year-olds this season.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (includes three winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

 

6.50: ENGLISHMAN enters the equation from a big price ‘saver’ perspective as mentioned earlier, though more logical winners include GULLIVER, TIME TO EXCEED and (perhaps) Spakalot.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Alkhor (good to firm)

1/3—Goring (good)

1/4—Englishman (soft)

 

7.20: Seven four-year-olds have won this event via the last thirteen renewals years though frustratingly, no vintage representatives have been declared on this occasion!  ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last eight contests and with KOOL KOMPNAY defending his 1/1 record at the track on behalf of the yard, Ryan Moore’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  FIRMAMENT and MITCHUM SWAGGER are feared most.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 15 winners to date have been returned at odds of 9/2 or less, whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners). That said, the 8/11 market leader (Montiridge) was a Placepot casualty four years ago.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/1—Kool Kompany (good to firm)

 

7.50: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 9-1 or more thus far, albeit this is a ‘compressed’ handicap with just five pounds separating all 14 horses in the weights before jockey claims come into play.  This unfortunately means that we cannot eliminate any of the runners via the weight stats this time around but upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that CALL ME GRUMPY can beat DRAGONS VOICE and SALEIRI.  You can ignore the 5/1 quote in the trade press about the selection who is likely to be sent off at half of those odds.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 17 market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners), though six gold medallists during the last 14 years were returned at 20/1--20/1--12/1--11/1--10/1--10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season following four meetings + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David Evans (1/12 – loss of 1 point)

5—Richard Hannon (0/6)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/2)

4—Hugo Palmer (0/2)

3—Michael Bell (1/2 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Charlie Hills (1/5 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Charlie Appleby (1/5 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (0/4)

2—David Brown (No runners)

2—Henry Candy (0/2)

2—Jane Chapple-Hyam (No runners)

2—Clive Cox (3/4 – Profit of 23 points)

2—Luca Cumani (0/2)

2—Philip Hide (No runners)

2—Richard Hughes (1/12 – loss of 4 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/4)

2—Gary Moore (0/4)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Brighton: £650.80 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Towcester: £63.90 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wetherby: £1,395.20 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Kempton: £370.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced