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Stat of the Day, 29th April 2013

Stat of the Day : 29th April

Stat of the Day : 29th April

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2013

A sad day for SotD yesterday as Blazing Bull was fatally injured in a fall three from home, when looking like he had every chance of winning. When such things happen, the final result of the race is an irrelevance and my thoughts turn to the horse's connections.

Today is the start of a new week and we're off chasing in Northamptonshire, where the going is good for the twelve runners tackling 2 miles and half a furlong in the...

2.30 Towcester:

Fergal O'Brien has a good record here at Towcester with a 21% strike rate from all his runners. However, when we consider his more fancied selections ie those running at 5/1 or shorter: five of the last eight have won in a record reading 13511511 with two of those wins coming from three chase events.

Thunder Sheik represents Mr O'Brien today and looks set to build on a promising introductions to fences at Uttoxeter last time out. He jumped well enough there and this race looks easier on paper at least!

He wears blinkers for the first time today, but I don't see that as a negative, as 38% of the trainer's horses win when wearing blinkers for the first time (3 wins and a place from 8 races for a profit of 24pts) including his last Towcester runner Doubletoilntrouble who won a chase here just 4 weeks ago at 2/1.

Thunder Sheik ticks all the above boxes today and looks a decent enough price at 7/2 BOG with several firms. I'm using BetVictor today, but you can see what your preferred bookie is offering if you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Towcester.

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 14/03/13

Stat of the Day: 14/03/13

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2013

I was right to suggest that the odds on favourite would be the main danger to us yesterday if he handled the new surface well enough. As it happens, he seemed to really "get" the Fibresand and fairly bolted home beating our selection by six lengths easing down! Our 2nd place at 3/1 further improved James Tate's Southwell record, but did nothing for our bottom line.

We'll take a break from the A/W action today and we'll have a crack at a handicap hurdle. It isn't, however, the Pertemps at Cheltenham, but more rather a Class 5, three-mile contest on Good To Soft (Softer in parts) ground. We're expecting a field of fourteen for the...

3.05 Towcester

Tim Vaughan has a pretty decent record here at Towcester in recent times with his hurdlers boasting a 26.1% strike rate here at Towcester since the start of 2011. These figures have been achieved courtesy of six winners from twenty-three runners during that study period.

Tim has two entries today, Kings Sunset will be taking on the fancied pair of Opera Og and Roll the Dice in the 3.45 chase contest, where he'll do well to even grab a place, but a small 14/1 E/W punt might not be the worst bet you'll make today!

It's the preceding race that attracts me today and Mr Vaughan's only hurdler here, Duneen Point.

Duneen Point actually took 10 attempts to get off the mark when finally breaking his duck at Fontwell on Boxing Day (2m4f, heavy) and he followed up that run with a very creditable showing over today's course and distance at 9/1 here last month.

He finished third that day, a length and a half off the winner and a half-length behind Bravo Riquet who he reopposes today on slightly better terms. The two are closely matched, but the extra pound might just make all the difference for our selection to reverse the placings.

Although Duneen Point's sole victory came over 2m 4f (today is 3m), he has some decent rides under his belt at today's trip already with a record of 234P3 with four of those five contests being run on soft ground. Those runs allied to his win on heavy ground means he shouldn't be found wanting for stamina, nor should he mind the cut in the ground.

His propensity to find one or two horses slightly too good on the day lead me down the place betting route and as such today's play is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Duneen Point at 6/1 BOG. This price is pretty much available everywhere, so for your preferred bookie, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.05 Towcester

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 24/02/13

Stat of the Day: 24/02/13

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2013

Two serious errors put paid to any chance of a winning return for Nacarat yesterday. A bad blunder at the seventh was bad enough, but he'd hauled himself back into contention before another grave mistake at the 14th pretty much ended his (and ours!) chances.

A little uncertainty surrounds Sunday's racing with inspections planned due to the impending overnight chill. Unfortunately I'm leaving the house at 6am, so whilst I type this, I'm unsure whether the UK meetings will go ahead or not. Should the call go our way, we're going to tackle a 3 mile, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle in the Northamptonshire countryside. We're expecting the ground to be Soft, but better in places for the fifteen runners scheduled to line up for the...

4.00 Towcester

To be quite honest, there's not a great deal jumping out at me for today's action, but I did notice that whilst Peter Pritchard doesn't actually train that many winners, he has a decent enough ratio of horses making the frame here at Towcester. In fact, during the last four winter campaigns (since October 2009), he has managed to get sixteen of his forty-three entrants to finish inside the places. Despite 37.2% not being a world-beating number, it's still a very healthy position.

His sole entrant today, Earcomesthedream, is no stranger to this track either, having raced here some seventeen times in the last six years and finishing in the first four on ten occasions.

Earcomesthedream stays the trip having won over today's 3 miles and also has victories at 3m1f and 3m 2f. Any cut in the ground shouldn't be an issue either, as he has proven himself on both Soft and Good to Soft ground in the past.

He is a resilient stayer and he gained his second Towcester win when landing another Class 5 Handicap over course and distance (good to soft) back in December. His form has been a little patchy since then, but he ran well enough on hs last hurdles outing at Chepstow to suggest he's still got another decent performance or two left in the tank for the season. It wouldn't be too unfair to dismiss his poor show last time out, as he was clearly unsuited by an A/W bumper race at Wolverhampton.

He doesn't seem to be overburdened at the weights, but does admittedly carry another 5lb more than that last C&D victory. His recent sketchy performances and this rise in the weights have been reflected in the opening shows, leaving me to take the option of a 0.5pt E/W bet on Earcomesthedream at 8/1 BOG with bet365. As I write this, most firms haven't made their position clear, so it might be best to...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Towcester

Well I Declare: 20th December

Well I Declare: 20th December

Well I Declare: 20th December

The action from Exeter, Towcester and Kempton comes under the spotlight today.

THURSDAY 20/12:

Exeter:

General stats: Kim Bailey held two entries for the scheduled 3.20 event, the trainer boasting an LSP figure of sixteen points via a 30% strike rate at the venue.

‘Peterborough Chase’ (transferred from Huntingdon) scheduled for 1.50: Although four favourites have won during the last decade, four renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since Henrietta Knight’s grip on the contest gave way.

Mares novice chase scheduled for 2.50: All eight winners have scored at odds of 9/2 or less, stats which include five winning favourites.

 

Towcester:

General stats: Don Pooleoni was David Arbuthnot’s only potential runner on the card at the time of writing, David boasting a 6/15 ratio at Towcester in recent times.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Quite how Luke Morris has recorded a level stake profit (however minimal) from 949 rides at Kempton during the last five years only he will know!  A truly magnificent effort, whilst Jim Crowley’s 136 (1001 rides) winners at the venue during the period is another stat to behold.

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2012

Stat of the Day 04/12/12

Stat of the Day 04/12/12

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2012

So, we finally got the month underway yesterday, but it was another runner-up position for us, I'm afraid. Madame Jasmine gave her usual gutsy determined Plumpton effort, but she found one just too good, as "the Champ" hustled and cajoled the favourite to a victory, beating our mount by less than two lengths. We're staying on the turf again today, but we're going to tackle the larger obstacles, as we head off to Northamptonshire for a nine runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase over 2 miles 3.5 furlongs, it's the...

12.45 Towcester

Grant Cann's chasers seem to go particularly well at Towcester, which is probably why he sends more chasers here than he does anywhere else with the exception of Exeter which is his local track, less than 20 miles from his Cullompton base. Over the years, Grant has sent a total of 12 chasers on the 350-mile, 6 hour round trip to Towcester, where has been rewarded with figures of 12114PU13215. Five winners from the twelve (41.67%) have produced level stakes profits of 28.63pts at SP, a return of almost 240% profit.

Each Way backers of these twelve horses have also seen eight trips (66.67%) back to the payout counter to collect profits of 36.33pts (151.38% profit).

Grant has, of course, just the one chaser at the track today in the shape of Arctic Watch, our SotD selection.

Today represents just Arctic Watch's second start in a chase, but he showed plenty of promise when finishing fourth at Taunton last month and may go better now in handicap company. He's receiving quite a chunk of weight from the more fancied runners today and this should help our 7 yr old grey on the soft ground, because he'd ideally prefer it a bit quicker, if I'm honest.

He's already won a couple of hurdle races, including one over today's trip and another over a further 3 furlongs, so he's not totally averse to getting his head in front.

Today's selection is really about weighing up the pros and cons, the trainer has an excellent record here in these events, the horse isn't overexposed as a chaser, but hasn't won yet and would prefer firmer ground than he's going to get. He has however shown the stamina to win over a trip 3 furlongs longer than today and his last chase outing was another furlong further than that.

I'm optimistic that Grant Cann will be wanting to at least cover his petrol money by getting this one into the frame and any potential doubts have been reflected in the market, where our selection is currently available at 9/1 BOG with several firms, whilst Sporting Bet go 10/1 non-BOG. I prefer to use a BOG bookmaker and today I'm using up some of non-runners refund money by staking 0.5pts E/W on Arctic Watch at 9/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but please feel free to choose your own bookmaker by going to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.45 Towcester

Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Well I Declare: 10th October

Well I Declare: 10th October

Well I Declare: 10th October

Today's action comes from Kempton, Ludlow, Nottingham and Towcester, as Mal Boyle previews the racecards for...

...WEDNESDAY 10/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a 9/1 double on last year’s corresponding card with the trainer holding six entries at the time of writing this time around.

 

Ludlow:

General stats: Cornwall based trainer Jackie Du Plessis held two declarations on the card at the five-day stage having secured three victories at the course from just five runners thus far. 

Juvenile Maiden Hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Two favourites have won via the last nine contests, during which time three gold medallists have scored at 25/1-20/1-11/1.  Only three of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

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Mares Novice Hurdle scheduled for 2.40: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, statistics which include two winners.

Three mile Handicap Chase due to be contested at 3.10: Six and seven-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals between them (even split), whilst the same stats apply for horses carrying weights of 11-4 or more.  All six contests have passed without a successful market leader being recorded, whilst two of the seven market leaders have troubled the judge from a toteplacepot perspective.

Two and a half mile Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 4.10: Six-year-olds had won all five renewals until last years when 80/1 and 33/1 representatives let the side down!  The six renewals have produced all manner of results with the gold medallists being returned at 33/1--9/1--11/4--11/4--9/4--5/6 (two successful favourites).  Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, one of the casualties being last year’s 5/6 favourite.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle due to be contested at 4.40: Favourites come into the race on a hat trick having secured three of the six contests thus far.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.10: Evan Williams held two options in the race this year coming into the contest on a hat trick.  Five-year-olds have won four of the five contests thus far.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor stands out from the crowd via recent stats: 2YO: 8/15----3YO: 8/24----older horses: 3/13----General strike rate of: 36.5%

 

Towcester:

General stats: John Quinn held three options on the card on Monday having saddled half (3/6) of his runners at the track to victory during the last five years.

Trainer Stats: 14th June 2012

Cecil Heading To Ascot In Form

This week Andy Newton gives you five flat and five NH yards to look out for.......... Read more

Trainers Stats: 31st May 2012

 

Haggas Has His Horses In Great Form

With Epsom the main focus this week Andy Newton looks at which trainers are heading to the Surrey track in form. Read more

Trainer Stats: 24th May 2012

Tregoning's Horses On The Mark......

With 5 winners from his last 12 runners Marcus Tregoning's horses are in cracking form at present. Read more

Trainer Stats: 5th April 2012

Warren Greatrex's Horses Are In Flying Form

Andy Newton highlights the trainers who are heading into the Easter period in tip-top form............... Read more

Stat of the Day: 26th March 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 26th March 2012

Good Morning Everyone! Sorry for the lateness of today's SotD (11.20am already!), I just had a few things to catch up on after my weekend away. We drew a blank yesterday as the highly regarded Great Huzzar surprisingly failed to fire. He was initially held up and then began to make steady progress through the field, but when the jockey pressed the button: nothing happened. Sometimes we have to hold our hands up if we've made a bad selection: I don't believe this was the case here. It just seems the horse underperformed.

We'll be looking for a return to winning ways today, but it's typical Monday fayre with little to choose from. We've decided to head off to Northamptonshire for a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle. The going has been declared as good (firmer in places) and there's currently 10 runners due to line up in the opener: the...

2.30 Towcester:

We often look to the smaller yards for our SotD pick and today is no exception. Sean Regan is the type of trainer that fits our bill perfectly. he's only saddled 4 runners this year and just 27 in the whole of 2011: hardly the busiest of yards. Yet he has competed in 4 Towcester handicap hurdles in the last 12 months: returning 2 winners at a level stakes profit of 14pts.

In fact, both those wins were achieved by today's selection: Meridiem, clearly a course specialist. He has raced 5 times at Towcester in his career and his record reads 21221, very impressive indeed. So we know he gets the track and both wins were at today's distance of 2 miles and similarly quick ground, so that's in our favour too.

He has risen in the weights, but he still looks the one to beat today and I'm going to take some of 11/4 (BOG) on offer from Ladbrokes (bet365 went from 3/1 to 5/2, whilst I was typing!), but you can always...

Click here to view the best odds on the 2.30 Towcester.

Is Towcester going to the dogs?

Yesterday Towcester racecourse staged one of its 17 days of racing this year. Since it only charges admission for three of these, there isn’t a deal of income generated for the track by spectators. Things could be about to change. Read more

Trainer Stats: 23rd Feb 2012

Can Tim Vaughan Get Off The Cold List?

Did you know that Tim Vaughan is now 52 days and 57 runners without a winner? Andy Newton looks at who's hot and who's not this week....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 19th Jan 2012

Venetia In Grand Form

Venetia Williams rewarded followers with a 75/1 double at Huntingdon last week, but who’s on Andy Newton’s hot trainers list this week? Read more