Tag Archive for: TS report

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/06/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 6.30 Limerick
  • 8.00 Limerick
  • 8.45 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following UK runners...

30-day form...

1-year course form...
and 5-year course form...

Our two 'free' UK races are just lowly Class 5/6 affairs, but there are a handful of Class 4 contests dotted around the country and the one that interests me most is the 4.00 Yarmouth, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground..

This looks a pretty open contest if truth be told with only Bold Ribb coming here off the back of a win. That is tempered by the fact that this win was way back in October, on the A/W, off a mark 6lbs lower than today and at a class below this one. Otherwise, all great!

Elsewhere Baltimore Boy and Magic Memories made the frame on their last runs, whilst Lough Leane’s fifth of seven at Newmarket ended a run of five straight wins. That defeat was at a higher grade than today and he now drops a class, as does Magic Memories, whilst top-weight Diderot is down two classes. Baltimore Boy is on a losing streak of eight races now and he’s the only runner here not to win any of their last six races.

We know Bold Ribb hasn’t been seen for over seven months, whilst Diderot has had almost eleven weeks to rest and Lady of Arabia’s last run was six weeks ago. Aside from the trio, the other half-dozen runners all raced in the past 20-24 days with Baltimore Boy, Nap Hand and Lakota Brave finishing 3rd, 5th and 9th at this class/trip in the same Kempton race three weeks ago.

None of this field have won here at Yarmouth before, mind you only Bold Ribb (6th of 10 last September) and Lough Leane (3rd of 10, a year ago) have raced on this track, but all bar Nap Hand and Bold Rigg have won over today's trip...

We've not got much in the way of soft ground from/experience aside from Magic Memories 1 win from 6, in fact most of these have done their running on good ground or quicker, so this might be a shock today. Lady of Arabia and Lough Leane are the ones with the best records at this trip, whilst the place stats...

...do give some of the others some hope. In cases like these , I tend to want runners to have at least two of going/class/course/distance in green, so from the above the ones 'better' suited to the conditions might be Lakota Brave, Magic Memories, Bold Ribb, Lady of Arabia and Lough Leane, giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 4, 6 and 8, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias that it favours those drawn lowest!

That said, it's a straigh mile on soft ground, so I'm not expecting the draw to make a huge amount of difference and whilst there is a bit of a drop off in the win percentage for those drawn higher...

...there's not a great deal in it and the place stats look pretty even across the board, suggesting that in a small number of races, those drawn high might have been unlucky. Generally here at Yarmouth, it's all about pace and doing your work early, but the ground is usually good to form or quicker, so we'll need to check the above soft ground races to see what tactics might work best...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag to be honest, but if pushed I'd want a hold-up horse based on those stats alone and if we consider the field's last few runs, this could be good news for the likes of Magic Memories and Nap Hand...

That, of course is based on taking pace in isolation, but we really should look at ho pace and draw are intertwined and we do this via our unique heat map...

...which suggests that in the absence of any real front-runner, Leuven Power, Nap Hand and Magic Memories might be best positioned.

Summary

From the above analysis, many names have cropped up and there's only three I've doubts about and that's Bold Ribb (lay-off and class/weight rise), Diderot and Lady of Arabia who became non-runners during the write-up process!

Of the remaining six runners, all have a really good shout of making the frame, but the one I like best from a win perspective would be Magic Memories. He has gone well on soft ground and gets the trip, plus he fared well on the pace/draw heat map.

Magic Memories was the 11/4 jt fav with Hills at 2.30pm UK time alongside Leuven Power and from those still in my eye, only Lakota Brave's 17/2 price was what I'd deem backable from an E/W perspective, that would be my place angle here, although it looks that tight that any of them could make the frame.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/06/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 6.10 Kempton
  • 7.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

And with Francesco Baracca, Muttasil and Marmaduke Lemon from the TS report all taking each other on, I think I'll have a look at their race, the 4.27 Nottingham, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed trip just 15yds shy of 1m½f after a 20yd rail movement. The going is set to be good and here's the card...

An inexperienced field with an average of under 5 races each (61 total races between the 13 of them), but Double Jump, Phoenix Passion, Francesco Baracca, Ribble Radiant and Roman Secret have all won at least one race with Phoenix Passion having won three of his eight starts and he comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Roman Secret also won last time out; Muttasil and Seamore are the only two yet to make the frame after 4 and 3 efforts respectively.There's plenty of changes according to the card, as we see Double Jump, Marmaduke Lemon and Francesco Baracca dropping down a class, whilst Ribble Radiant is down two steps. It's also handicap debut day for Marmaduke Lemon, Drink Dry, Seamore and Baynoona, who also runs for Harry Charlton for the first time today. Francesco Baracca and Muttasil run in handicap company for just the second time. We've also a couple of runners trying new headgear out with Drink Dry and Ribble Radiant wearing cheekpieces and a tongue tie respectively.

Only three of these, Seamore, Roman Secret, Great Chieftain have raced here before with all three failing to win their sole visit, but Roman Secret and Great Cheiftain did at least make the frame. We also don't have much in the way of wins at this trip, but Roman Secret, Phoenix Passion and Francesco Baracca have all managed to do it...

We don't get much help from the win side of things, but that's hardly surprising from a field that has won just 7 of 61 races so far, especially when Instant Expert eyecatcher Phoenix Passion is 3 from 8! Roman Secrtet looks next best, but it's a low bar and I think we're going to need to check the place stats...

These are more helpful, even if only to consolidate Phoenix Passion's position. Drink Dry, Francesca Barraca and Roman Secret (2nd best so far) also have multiple places in one or more category and after eliminating any of them without any green in either going, class, course or distance from the place graphic, I'm only taking these forward to draw analysis...

...and they're pretty much spread across the track, so I need to see if there's anything to be had from the draw in this type of contest...

I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias at play here, but stalls 4-6 have good win records, as does stall 11, so could be more good news for Phoenix Passion, as well as Drink Dry, Great Chieftain and Marmaduke Lemon, whilst there seems to be even less of a bias in the place stats.

It's a totally different story when it comes to pace, though, as horses running in mid-division or further back have struggled to win under these conditions...

...whilst leaders have gone well, but have seemed vulnerable to the prominent stalking types. That said, I'd rather be on an out and out front-runner than a back marker here and based on the field's last three outings (because some only have three to choose from!)...

Roman Secret looks like the pace-setter here with the likes of Show Biz Kid, Phoenix Passion and Ribble Radiant the ones in closes attendance. I'd also expect Seamore and Muttasil to be fairly close to the pace too in what could be a trappy affair.

Summary

The one horse whose name keeps popping up is Phoenix Passion and he has to be my pick here. I'm not surprised to see him installed as the early (3.40pm Tuesday) favourite with Bet365, but I was rather hoping for a little more than 10/3, but beggars can't be choosers.

Elsewhere, Roman Secret also won last time out and was my 2nd best from Instant Expert, he's likely to set the pace here and if she's race-fit after a 201-day layoff, she could be one for the E/W bettors amongst us at a current price of 8/1.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/05/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.40 Warwick
  • 8.10 Southwell
  • 8.20 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two possible runners of interest...

...and it's the latter that I'm going to look at today.

Liseo runs in the 8.30 Kempton, a 6-runner (it was 7 but Believe In Stars has been withdrawn), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

DAVIDEO drops in class here for his first run in 222 days, during which time he has been gelded. His last win was four starts and ten months ago over today's trip at Newmarket and he now runs on the A/W for just the second time, having been a four-length runner-up here at Kempton over a mile back in November 2022.

CANNON ROCK also drops in class after a disappointing 10th of 11 (22 lengths down) over 1m6f at Newmarket earlier this month, but did win over today's trip on the A/W at Southwell in March, three starts ago, although he was only 6th of 14 here over 1m3f in April.

LISEO is the only course winner in the race, having won here over 1m3f at the start of April on his last A/W outing. He's far better on the A/W than the Flat, having won two of five in 2024 so far. Up in class today, but did get to within 1.25 lengths of the winner in a Class 2 here over 1m3f in November.

ARTISAN DANCER is anther better suited to the A/W (5 wins and 10 further places from 21) than the Flat (unplaced in 7) and was a winner at Wolverhampton five starts ago in early February. He's a consistent placer, so I suspect he'll be in the mix once again.

APPIER is four from nine on the A/W, but it's almost a year since his last win (at Lingfield six starts ago). He raced at Ascot 11 days ago after a six-month break and looked like he needed the run in an eight-length defeat.

IMPHAL makes a yard debut for Paddy Butler today and makes a first non-NH appearance since early July 2019 and a first A/W outing since finishing fourth or eight here at Kempton over two miles way back in August 2018. I'm not sure what the plan is here for this 10 yr old, but he's probably best left watched today.

Instant Expert...

...says Liseo on standard to slow and Kempton (one and the same, of course), whilst Appier's A/W record over the trip is excellent. The place stats...

...say pretty much the same thing, but also show Artisan Dancer as another possible for the frame.

There's rarely a draw bias on the A/W in small fields over trips of this length and this is no exception either...

...I suppose stalls 4 & 5 have placed more often, but there's not a great deal to be gleaned from those numbers above. It's a slightly different story when it comes to assessing pace, though, as those willing to set the tempo of the races have seemed to shade it...

...which would be really helpful if we had a runner keen to take it on. Sadly, this looks like being a falsely run race with none of the six seeming keen to lead the way if their more recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

Unusually for an A/W contest, we've little/no help from either draw or pace, but we do have some useful data on Instant Expert, we know who is and who isn't in form and we have the info from the TS report.

So based on what we do have, it's the sole course winner, in-form Liseo from the TS report. Horse and yard do well here and Hills' (only book open at 3.15pm Tuesday) 9/2 looks more than fair.

The 3/1 Artisan Dancer is probably my next best, but if you wanted an outsider who could go better than the odds might suggest, then the 15/2 about Appier is interesting.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/05/2024

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.45 York
  • 5.10 Sligo
  • 6.15 Sligo
  • 6.22 Perth
  • 6.40 Bath

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

...from which we should really go to York! However, I'll leave the Musidora (3.45 race) to those better qualified elsewhere on the site and the two Jack Channon horses go in fields of 14 and 22. One of those is pushing my comfort zone boundaries and one is way beyond, so taking the lesser of two evils, I'll go with the 2.15 York, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground...

I actually picked Jack Channon's runner, Flash Bardot as my winner for last Saturday's Racing Insights, but she was withdrawn. She still arrives here as one of just two LTO winners (Crystal Delight being the other) in the field and this sole mare has won three of her last four. Elsewhere Chillingham, Two Brothers and bottom weight Lightening Company were all in the frame, but the latter is winless in nine races and Chillingham has lost eight on the bounce (placed five times, though) since three wins and a place from his first five starts. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last seven.

Klondike's last run was group 3 race at Newbury, so he's down in class here for his handicap debut, but Flash Bardot, Two brothers and Saratoga Gold all step up from Class 3. Chillingham wears cheekpieces for the first time today and it'll be Percy Shelley's debut in a hood.

Most of the field have had at least one outing since the start of April whilst Track of Time (on handicap debut today) and Oneforthegutter were last seen in January. Marhaba The Champ and top-weight Klondike, however, are returning from respective breaks of 230 days and 270 days, during which they were both gelded and Klondike had wind surgery.

Klondike is one of six yet to win over this trip, along with Track of Time, Westerton, Crystal Delight, Percy Shelley and Lightening Company, whilst of the eight runners to have raced at York before, only Marhaba The Champ, Kihavah and Two Brothers have won here. All three are former course and distance winners and Marhaba The Champ has also scored over 1m2½f here, whilst Kihavah's five efforts over track and trip have finished 16511 and it's two of this trio of CD winners that stand out on Instant Expert...

Track of Time makes a UK debut here and Westerton looks weak (1 from 6) at this grade and is rated some 14lbs higher than his last turf win. Crystal delight has fared better on good ground and standard A/W surfaces. Chillingham's three career wins have been at Classes 3, 4 and 5 and the same applies to Saratoga Gold, whilst Oneforthegutter would prefer it softer and he has struggled in this grade.

The bookies will pay four (some will pay five) places here, so the place stats might be more than useful...

...and if I apply my usual "at least two greens from the first four columns" rule, I'm left with these in draw order...

I've put them in draw order, because I now want to see if past similar races have benefited any particular part of the stalls, so let's check our draw analyser...

...which unsurprisingly (to me, anyway) suggests there's little in it and that's really how it should be. Over a mile and a half, the trip is easily long enough to unwind any potential draw bias and it's more likely to be race tactics and ability that determine the outcome, so with that thought in mind, let's run those 40-odd past races through our pace analyser, which tells us that...

...those who bide their time do best. We log the way horses run in the UK and allocate them 4pts if they led, 3pts for a prominent run, 2pts for those in mid-division and 1pt for a hold-up run, so we're really looking for horses who might run to a score of 2.50 or lower here and based on their last few efforts...

...you could still make a case for all of them. If I then refer back to how the pace has interacted with the draw, there's one combination that stands out...

...directing us to those drawn highest from our shortlisted runners.

Summary

In racecard order, my original thoughts were that I'd be looking at the likes of Klondike, Marhaba The Champ, Crystal Delight and Chillingham and all four remain on my shortlist. With both Klondike and Crystal Delight being drawn high, I'll keep those two for now. Marhaba The Champ and Kihavah were the eyecatchers from the win side of Instant Expert, so the former remains on my list and the latter now joins it, leaving me with Chillingham to consider and whilst I don't see him as a winner here, there's no reason based on his place form why he can't make the frame for the seventh time in nine flat races.

I'm aware that I've ended with five runners that I feel are capable of making the frame and I could easily have added a couple more, but some firms will pay five places, so let's look at the market, as of 4pm Tuesday...

...from here, I'd be inclined to side with Marhaba The Champ as my winner with small E/W plays for Kihavah and Chillingham, as I impose my 8/1 minimum odds rule. That said, Crystal Delight might well drift and become of interest again 😉



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/05/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...

...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Chester
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 5.50 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Fontwell

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from and I did fancy a switch away from the jumps, but none of the four Flat/AW contests appealed to me from the angle of having to write a column, so we're heading North to look at Fergal O'Brien's 6yr old mare Politacus from above, as she tackles the 3.45 Kelso, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Lily du Berlais and Strong Belle both won last time out after finishing second on their previous outings, but after two wins on the bounce, featured runner Politacus comes here on a hat-trick. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Shakeyatailfeather and Brendas Asking are both 6-race maidens, whilst Spit Spot has lost her last eleven outings and Mary has yet to get off the mark after eight attempts!

Spit Spot and Brendas Asking's bids to finally land a win are unlikely to be aided by stepping up two classes from their last run, whilst Politacus, Mighty Moth and Linda Moon all make the same double class rise here. Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather are all up one level today but Mick's Jet and bottom-weight Dame ofthecotwolds both raced at Class 1 three weeks ago with the latter a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Cheltenham.

This will the Dame's second run in a handicap, as it will for Brendas Asking, Linda Moon and Mighty Moth, whilst Lily du Berlais, Mick's Jet, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather all make their handicap debuts here. Linda Moon is in a first time tongue-tie and Politacus will sport cheekpieces for the first time.

All twelve have raced at least once in the last ten weeks so there should be no fitness worries for a field that hasn't won a race between them here at Kelso (mind you, they are only 0 from 2!), but the top six on the card have all at least won over this type of trip, although Instant Expert says they haven't won very many races at all...

...so we might find that the place data is of more value to us today...

Lily du Berlais is certainly proven at the trip already and most of them have a reasonable enough place record over this distance. The truth is that they're a relatively inexperienced bunch; Spit Spot has had twenty races (just 2 wins!, but the other nine have only been on a track 85 times between them and of the field's 16 from 105 (15.24%) strike rate, Lily du Berlais and Politacus account for 5 wins from 19 (26.32%) and although the latter prefers the ground a bit softer, I wouldn't rule her out just yet.

Previous similar races here at Kelso have pretty much gone with the racing position adopted by the runners, with leaders proving the most successful...

...which based on recent outings, would appear to suit the top handful of runners on this graphic the most...

Summary

From a recent form perspective, Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and featured runner Politacus would appear to be the ones to keep an eye out for and Lily du Berlais definitely seemed the one to beat at this trip, according to Instant Expert.

Politacus and Lily du Berlais have the best strike rates in the field and the former just about made the top-five on average pace score. Lily du Berlais didn't quite make it, but did race prominently last time out when winning very comfortably at Ayr. Politacus would probably prefer the ground to be a little softer, but I don't see the ground preventing her from making the frame, although I suspect she'll have to play second fiddle to Lily du Berlais today with Strong Belle also a leading contender for the places.

Early dart for me today (football play-offs again!), so no odds available at 3pm, but my 1-2-3 would be Lily du Berlais - Politacus - Strong Belle. I might add an E/W possible (if none of these three trade at 8/1+) when I see the market, as some firms are paying four places on this one.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/05/24

Wow! How is it May already? We kick the new month off with Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report, which is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...

...30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Pontefract
  • 4.00 Ascot
  • 4.15 Punchestown
  • 6.35 Punchestown
  • 7.15 Brighton

Yet for all those options above, none of the UK races are any better than Class 4! We've three races with more than one way in, so we'll take one of those, the 7.30 Kempton as our featured race. Recent course specialists Tate & Crisford(s) send Swift Victory and Labalaba respectively to take each other and and half a dozen more runners on in a Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

The top two in the weights, Swift Victory and Surveyor, along with Jayyaah were winners last time out and all three had been runners-up in their penultimate outing, so all three are clearly going well, as is Sennockian, whose runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a month ago ended his 100% (3 from 3) record on the A/W and with Mr Baloo having won three of his last five, we could be in a for a decent scrap here, although seven-race maiden Ebt's Guard might feel the pressure.

All three handicap debutants (Surveyor, Jayyash and Screaming Eagle) are up in class today, whilst Labalaba will make a second handicap appearance whilst wearing a first-time tongue-tie & hood on what will be his first run since being gelded during a 223-day lay-off.

That break is the longest of all eight runners and whilst Swift Victory and Ebts Guard have been rested for 163 and 189 days respectively, the majority of the field have raced in the past month.

As for relevant past form, we have Instant Expert below, of course and we've two former course and distance winners in the shape of Swift Victory and Jayyash, whilst Mr Baloo won here over 7f three weeks ago. Surveyor won over a mile at Lingfield last time out and Sennckian has won at Newcastle, Lingfield and Wolverhampton over 1m/1m½f this year already. The bottom three on the card, Labalaba, Screaming Eagle and Ebt's Guard have yet to win at either track or trip...

There's not a lot of data to work with, especially on the A/W, where Sennockian and Mr Baloo seem better suited in this grade than they have been on turf. Labalaba makes an A/W debut here and the bottom two on the card are both 0 from 2 on the A/W, but both have made the frame on both starts...

Mind you, all those with any A/W experience have decent place records, so that last graphic isn't overly helpful and sadly that's also the case when we try to work out which stall(s) would be the best to run from, as over the last 200 or so similar races, there's very little advantage to be gained from the draw when it comes to winning races, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian, Swift Victory, Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame...

If we then look at which tactics have worked best over those races, we see that the further forward a horse raced, the better its chances were of making the frame...

...but that prominent runners won slightly more often than leaders, but there's not much in it, if truth be told, probably just a couple of wins either side. What we do know is that leader/prominent runners have a win strike rate of 16.2% (mid-div/hold-up are at 9.1%) and a place strike rate of 40.4% (mid-div/hold-up are at 28.4%) and that they've won 57.9% of the races and provided 52.2% of the placers, despite only making up 43.5% of the total number of runners, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...could be good news for Labalaba, Surveyor and Sennockian in particular.

Summary

You could very easily make a case for most of these here and whilst Labalaba could have every chance, the lay-off and an A/W debut is a worry. In fact, I think I want to focus on those with a recent run, so that takes Swifts Victory and Ebt's Guard out of the equation too. Screaming Eagle is 0 from 3 so far and has been beaten twice here at Kempton, including as a short-priced favourite last time out. Those two Kempton races haven't generated winners and they look weak in retrospect, so the Eagle won't land here for me.

This leaves me with four (Surveyor, Sennockian, Mr Baloo and Jayyash) to consider and all have run well recently with Sennockian probably the form pick ahead of Mr Baloo. Jayyash is the only course and distance winner and Mr Baloo has yet to win over the trip, although he has won here. We didn't get much from the draw stats, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian & Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame, whilst the pace data pointed us towards Surveyor and Sennockian.

There's probably very little to choose between the four of them, but if pushed, I think I'd have them as Surveyor / Jayyash / Mr Baloo / Sennockian and with the 4.55pm market looking as follows...

I think I'd have a small go at Surveyor with E/W plays on both Mr Baloo and Sennockian.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/04/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Perth
  • 4.17 Catterick
  • 5.15 Taunton
  • 5.20 Bellewstown
  • 5.25 Catterick
  • 5.50 Taunton

My personal preferred settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have yielded the following runners for me to consider...

Whilst the logical/preferred step for me is to marry up the daily feature with the the free race list, that would mean looking at Jersey Gem and the 5.15 Taunton, but 15-runner, Class 5, mares' handicaps aren't really my bag, but here are a few higher-rated races on that card, including a stayers' handicap from the list of free races aka the 5.50 Taunton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m 2f 57yds on good ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Shortcross Storm was a runner-up whilst Bbold, Airtothethrone and Jessie Lightfoot all finished third. Conversely, Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemen's Tipple and Kingsmill Gin were all pulled up on their most recent efforts, but Head and Heart and Kingsmill Gin did both won four races ago. Jessie Lightfoot and Shortcross Storm both won five races back, but the other five runners are winless in at least seven outings.

All four runners who were pulled up last time out (Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemens Tipple and Kingsmill Gin) are up a class today with Head and Heart sporting first-time blinkers. Airtothethrone wears cheekpieces for the first time and Jessie Lightfoot makes a second yard debut for Henry Oliver after three runs for Ewan Williams.

All nine have had at least one run in the last two months and aside from Bbold's appearance at Wincanton on Sunday, they've all had at least 17 days rest. Only Unblinking and Flemen's Tipple have yet to score over a similar trip to this one and two of the field have won here at Taunton already; Airtothethrone landed a three-mile handicap chase here in early December 2022, whilst one of Kingsmill Gin's two career wins (from 24 attempts!) was over this course and distance, albeit 13 races ago back December 2021!

Instant Expert tells me that Shortcross Storm has lost 13 of 15 good ground chases and that he's 0 from 7 at Class 4, whilst Airtothethrone and Kingsmill Gin both have half a dozen defeats to their names at this grade...

Kingsmill Gin has also struggled to win over similar trips to this one, despite that distant course and distance success mentioned earlier. The above doesn't necessarily mean that Airtothethrone, Kingsmill Gin and Shortcross Storm can't win here, who knows they might have just been unlucky? The place stats might tell us a bit more...

That's a better looking graphic if nothing else, but I've still reservations over Kingsmill Gin (going) and Shortcross Storm (class), but the others all seem to be well suited to at least making the frame and if you can make the frame, you've a 1 in 3 chance of winning! At this point, I'd normally refer to the pace stats to help me narrow the field down, but good ground staying chases here at Taunton don't seem to have that much of a pace bias...

Mid-division runners have an inexplicably poor return, but when all other running styles ahead of or behind mid-division have done pretty well, I have to say that it looks like a coincidental anomaly rather than a trend.

And whilst we don't expect the pace of the race to be the deciding factor here, this is how we think they might lead out, if they run how they've raced in their last few contests...

Summary

When the place stats/data doesn't give you much help in a NH handicap, you need to go back to what you know (form and Instant Expert past data) and what you think/feel ie your gut opinion. For me, this leads me back to Airtothethrone (placed in his last two and now back down to his last winning mark) and Jessie Lightfoot (3343 in her last four starts, back with her old yard and reunited with the last jockey to win on her) as my two against the field.

I wrote this piece early (it's now 2.25pm!) on Tuesday, as I've a function to attend to later and as such, no odds were available. I did prefer Airtothethrone slightly more than Jessie Lightfoot, but the market will dictate how/if I place any bets here. A tissue made up of the average of the forecast prices from Oddschecker, Timeform and Racing Post looked like this...

Jessie Lightfoot 4/1
Airtothethrone 9/2
Kingsmill Gin 7.33/1
Bbold 15/2
Flemen's Tipple 8.33/1
Unblinking 10.17/1
Shortcross Storm 11.17/1
Grove Road 11.33/1
Head And Heart 11.33/1

...and if that is anywhere near accurate, then I'd also have an interest in both Shortcross Storm and Head And Heart as E/W possibles. The former receives weight all round and might well run himself into a place by nicking a decent early soft lead. The latter is a bit of an enigma, she hasn't completed any of her last three (RO, PU, PU), but finished 13531 in her previous five. She's now only 2lbs higher than her last win and if in the mood, could go well. If only we knew and if only it'd rain a little for her!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/04/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Cheltenham
  • 2.52 Beverley
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 5.00 Cheltenham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

To be honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the seven races above, mainly to a lack of experienced horses, so I've decided to focus on what looks a fairly open race with E/W possibilities at Jumps HQ. The race in question is the 2.40 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f (16 fences) on good/good to soft ground...

Our sole LTO winner is Scarface and he comes here seeking a hat-trick having won three of his last four. Elsewhere only Do Your Job and Our Jet made the frame, both finishing third in 8-runner contests. Most of the field have won at least one of their last six outings, but Il Ridoto and In Excelsis Deo have both lost seven on the bounce.

Seven of the twelve runners were in Class 1 action last out, but in-form Scarface steps up from Class 2, as does LTO placer Do Your Job, whilst Presentandcounting, Idalko Bihoue and Our Jet all move from Class 3, which makes life tough here, especially if you've been off the track for 200 days like Presentandcounting has!

He's not the only one who might be in need of a run, as Idalko Bihoue, Final Orders and Hang In There also return from breaks of 113, 151 and 171 days respectively. The rest of the field have raced at least once in 2024, although Our Jet hasn't been seen for twelve weeks and Sail Away has had a two-month rest. The other half of the field have all been in action in the last five weeks.

Sail Away and In Excelsis Deo are the only runners yet to win over this kind of trip and although Hang In There (2m½f hurdle) and Idalko Bihoue (2m4f chase) are both former Cheltenham winners, only Il Ridoto and Torn and Frayed have scored over course and distance...

Instant Expert's overview of the field's chasing form over the last two years...

...suggests that Il Ridoto has failed to take the several chances offered to him at this class/track/trip, whilst Do Your Job would probably want more rain to fall. That said he's also 0/5 at Class 1, as is Torn And Frayed. Hang In There is interesting on going/trip, as is Scarface (a former Class 1 winner). The bookies will all pay at least four places on this race, so we should look at the place stats from the same races as above...

...which would seem to rule out the likes of Final Orders, In Excelsis Deo, Presentandcounting, Do Your Job and Torn And Frayed, suggesting that I focus on these seven runners all rated 5-8lbs higher than their last win...

...and I should probably remove Idalko Bihoue as the weakest of the seven, especially as he's been away for a while and is up two classes.

In the past, middle distance chases here at Cheltenham with medium-sized fields on good/good to soft ground have rewarded those brave enough to take the race on and set the tempo...

...with leaders claiming 32.65% of the wins and 20.42% of the places from just 12.23% of the runners, which looks like good news for Scarface, Gemirande and Our Jet from the six runners I'm still looking at...

...although I suspect that Idalko Bihoue might also want to get involved early doors.

Summary

Instant Expert helped me cut the field from twelve to six and whilst I personally think that Il Ridoto should be the horse to beat here, I fear that if he continues to race towards the back of the field, he'll struggle to make up ground although he did make the frame on three successive occasions over the winter by racing prominently/leading, so maybe his team will revert to those tactics. If that happens, then he'd be the one to beat and whilst his 11/2 ticket (as of 3pm Tuesday) is a fair price, it's essentially a punt on which tactics you think his team will employ.

Should he go on to win/place, then there are still three places (or more if you use SkyBet!) to aim for and with the market currently looking like this...

...the in-form Scarface looks a decent E/W option to Il Ridoto. Gemirande and Our Jet would be more speculative suggestions here, but I think both are better than those odds might suggest and both are capable of putting in a big run.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/04/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Market Rasen
  • 3.52 Lingfield
  • 4.50 Leopardstown
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Market Rasen

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

and 30-day form...

A couple of our in-form trainers go head to head to head in the 3.40 Wolverhampton, whilst both Tom Lacey and Richard Hughes have runners in races from the free list. Dibble Decker's race is rated higher than the one featuring Sandy paradise, so I'm going to look at the 3.00 Market Rasen, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m 3f 139yds (after a 105yd rail movement) on good to soft / soft ground...

Jet Plane and William Cody both won last time out with the latter also finishing as a runner-up in five of his previous seven outings. Featured horse Dibble Decker was a runner-up on his last run, beaten by just a neck but did win two starts ago. Top-weight War Lord and Dreams of Home are the only ones without a win in their last five and they come here on losing runs of 12 and 10 races respectively.

War Lord will wear blinkers for the first time and does, however, drop down a class here as does The Big Bite, but Dreams of Home actually steps up a level, just like bottom-weight LTO winner William Cody. Gloire d'Athon might well need a run here, having been off the track since a 42-length defeat at Kempton in late November, whilst all his rivals have had a run in the last 25-39 days.

The out of form Dreams of Home is the only one yet to win over a similar trip to this one and Instant Expert's data from the field's previous efforts in this type of race looks like this...

We know War Lord has lost his last twelve and his record on this going and over this type of trip are really poor; his best efforts have been over 1m7½f to 2m½f, so I think today's trip will be beyond him, whilst The Big Bite hasn't won on anything softer than good since November 2020 and at the age of 11 he's not going to get any better. William Cody's chase win have been at Class 4 before today, but as the place stats show, he he hasn't been out of his depth in this grade despite being 0 from 3...

...and the perennial runner-up looks a good bet for a place if nothing else! On the evidence of that second graphic, you'd not want to be getting involved with War Lord, The Big Bite or Dreams of Home and if William Cody does what he normally does and finds one (or two!) too good for him, then is our winner going to come from Gloire D'Athon (who was poor LTO and hasn't raced for 19 weeks), featured horse Dibble Decker or LTO winner Jet Plane?

At this point, I'd normally ask the pace stats to help me out, but the data from past similar contests is inconclusive...

I know that it looks like leaders are the ones to be with, but the fact that prominent runners aren't as successful mid-division runners suggests that the data might not be rock solid for this type of race and that feeling is compounded when I look at the field's last four runs...

...where very few of them seem to have a consistent running style. Of the three that I mention as potential winners, Gloire D'Athon & Dibble Decker look like prominent runners and Jet Plane looks like a hold-up horse with neither of those style being favourable here. Jet Plane did set the pace two starts ago, of course and War Lord did so three races back, but this looks like a falsely run contest will be on the cards.

Summary

When I see a race that I think will be falsely run, I tend to revert to recent overall form and historical relevant form (ie Instant Expert) and all things considered, this brings me to Dibble Decker. He's in good nick, the yard are going well and he has raced to varying tactics in his recent races. He's the current (4.25pm) 3/1 favourite for the race with Hills, but I had him at 11/4 anyway, so that's a fair price.

I suspect that William Cody will be the 'bridesmaid' once again and may have to fend Jet Plane off to do so, but rather boringly I have to agree with the bookies 1-2-3 on this occasion.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/04/24

Hope you all had a great Easter and after the break Insights now return with a look at Wednesday's racing where the free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 5.00 Catterick
  • 5.25 Kempton

...whilst the TS report has the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

...and 30-day form...

I tend to leave the Flat alone in the first few weeks of the season, so the Catterick race is a no-no for me, as is the 'free' Kempton race : Class 5 maidens don't do much for me, but from TS, Richard Hughes' Zero Carbon runs in a decent-looking contest for the 7.00 Kempton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Kiwano won last time out, Revolutionise was a runner-up and Hodler was third in a big field, but the other half dozen all failed to place. Toimy Son is 0 from 5 in the Uk, but did win a Listed race at Longchamp eight starts and twenty-three months ago. Hickory and Hodler are both winless in seven with all their rivals winning at least once in their last six.

Hodler's chances of breaking that losing run might not be helped by stepping up a class as does bottom weight King Cabo, but better news for Hickory, who drops down one level, as do Caragio and Kiwano, who makes a debut for George Baker today.

Thre of the field (Follow Your Heart, the fast-finisher Revolutionise and King Cabo) have been seen in the last 18-27 days and Kiwano's LTO win was 47 days ago, but the remainder of the field have been off the track for 135 days or more, with Toimy Son away the longest at nearly nine months, during which time he was gelded.

Kiwano and Hodler are the only two yet to win over this course and distance, but both have scored at the trip and in fairness, Hodler's run here in March 2022 is the only time either have been here and their lack of course wins is shown on Instant Expert, of course...

...where several runners look like they'll be at ease with these conditions, but Follow Your Heart has struggled to win on the going, here at Kempton and over the trip, whilst Revolutionise has even worse figures at class and trip and Hickory is still 9lbs higher than his last win, despite losing each of his last seven starts.

Although Follow Your Heart has plenty of defeats above, he's actually pretty consistent at making the frame, according to the place stats...

...where he looks very well placed along with Kiwano, Zero Carbon and King Cabo amongst others. Bottom weight King Cabo has been drawn lowest of all here with Revolutionise out in stall nine and it would appear that a high draw isn't preferable...

...with the PRB3 scores dropping off from stall 4 and upwards, although stall 5 still has a rating of o.50...

The pace stats from those races seem quite heavily stacked towards those willing to set the tempo...

...with hold-up horses tending to struggle, which could make life difficult for the likes of Toimy Son, Follow Your Heart and Hodler, based on their most recent efforts...

...and with the pace/draw heat map from those races above looking like this with our runners overlaid...

...the likes of Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo become of interest.

Summary

Most of these have a relatively recent win, but none are in great form, although Kiwano did win last time out and he along with Follow Your Heart, Zero Carbon and King Cabo were the ones who looked best suited to make the frame from Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map also highlighted Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo, so I think this might well point to Kiwano as my 'most likely' here with honourable mentions to both Zero Carbon and King Cabo.

The 5.30pm market had Zero Carbon at 11/2, Kiwano at 8/1 and King Cabo at 16/1, so there's a distinct possibility that I've misread the data, but I'd be looking as small E/W plays on Kiwano and King Cabo here.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 27/03/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wincanton
  • 3.18 Wexford
  • 3.40 Hereford
  • 5.o5 Wincanton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year course form...

...with the best on paper of all those races looking like the last where Mount Athos will attempt to retain the race he won last year, the 7.00 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

It's another small field that looks really competitive and my early thoughts were that all bar possibly Soar Above could have a chance of winning this.

MOUNT ATHOS is three from here over course and distance and won this race last year, but is now rated some 9lbs higher. He was a course and distance winner two starts ago of 4lbs lower than today but was a disappointing 4/5 fav at Wolverhampton last time out off today's mark when only 5th of 8, beaten by 7 lengths. Could very easily bounce back on his return to Kempton.

ROHAAN has also won over course and distance, albeit way back in December 2020 and was only beaten by just over a length last time out at Lingfield. He has been eased a pouind here, which should help a horse deemed good enough to run in last season's Gr 1 Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot.

MOSTABSHIR makes just a second appearance in a handicap some 144 days after his last run when 5th of 9 at Chelmsford on handicap debut, going down by over four lengths. He's down a furlong and down 2lbs in the ratings too, which should make him a little more competitive. He won on his only previous visit to Kempton, landing a Class 4 Novice event over a mile on his debut in November 2022.

MUMS TIPPLE drops in class today and is noted as a fast finisher, but recent form hasn't been great, losing eight on the bounce and was last home of six in a Listed race at Wolverhampton earlier this month. He now seeks an upturn in form, more than a year after his last win. has won a couple over 7f, but his better form has been over 6f.

ARABIAN STORM only raced four times before today, twice each at Newcastle and Newmarket and was only beaten by ¾-length behind Shouldvebeenaring in a Listed race at HQ last time out. He has a win (7f at Newcastle) and two places from those four starts and now drops in class for his handicap debut off what might be a lenient mark of 95, seeing as Shouldvebeenaring was rated 113 earlier this month. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't raced for near enough eleven months and might possibly need the run.

SOAR ABOVE has won three times over course and distance, but unlike Mount Athos, it has taken him 22 attempts to attain that feat and he was was runner-up here over track/trip last time out, but that was at Class 4 off a mark of 82 with a 7lb claimer on board. The claimer has gone, he runs off 82 again and is up two classes. Add in the fact that he is on a run of sixteen defeats and you can see why I think he might struggle.

That recent poor run of form is starkly highlighted by Instant Expert, which suggests the top three in the weights (and the three drawn lowest) should be the ones to focus on...

...although Soar Above has had the knack of running well enough to make the frame without winning...

...but his Class 2 record remains poor with most of his placed efforts coming at Class 4. Instant Expert highlighted the three drawn lowest and the draw stats for similar past races would appear to favour those in stalls 1-4...

...which would also be good news for Arabian Storm on his comeback run. His fitness is sure to be tested here as he'll face opposition for an early lead from last year's winner Mount Athos who does like to make all where possible, whilst Rohaan looks the polar opposite...

...and this hold-up approach could well be Rohaan's undoing if we then look at how those 90 previous Kempton races have panned out...

Summary

None of the field won last time out, but Mount Athos has been a standing dish over course and distance. He was the pick of Instant Expert along with Rohaan and Mostabshir and this trio look to have the best of the draw along with Arabian Storm.

Mount Athos and Arabian Storm have the best pace profiles here with Mostabshir there or thereabouts too, but it's last year's winner, Mount Athos who ticks most boxes today and would be my pick. Rohaan might get left behind if there's plenty of early pace, but both Mostabshir and Arabian Storm are coming off lengthy breaks. I think the challenge to Mount Athos comes from this trio and if pushed to suggest one, I'd hope that the 144 day absence isn't enough to upset Mostabshir.

All of which appears to be backed up by the 4.30pm call from Hills...



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/03/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.45 Haydock
  • 3.30 Market Rasen
  • 7.30 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...haven't generated any runners at all for me to consider and I'm not massively keen on any of the 'free' races for different reasons, so I'm going to look at one of the day's joint highest-rated races, the 3.50 Haydock, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase on soft/heavy ground. The trip is 3m 160yds after rail movements and these are the runners facing 22 fences today...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be two races in one with (racecard order) Jubilee Express, Robyndzone, O'Connell and Ali Star Bert battling it out for positions 1-4 and the remainder all trying to be next best.

Bottom weight Ali Star Bert is the only LTO winner in the field and comes here seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five starts, having been beaten by a nose three starts ago. He's clearly the 'form' horse here, but Robyndzone has two wins (but also two incomplete runs) from his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from six starts. Atakan is also two (plus a place) from four, whilst only Gold Emery has failed to win any of his last seven, having won just once (on debut) in his eight career starts and he's 0/6 over fences.

Only Jubilee Express and Robyndzone raced at this grade last time out with the former a one length runner-up. Top-weight Conkwell legend drops down after some disappointing Class 2 efforts, whilst the other five runners are all up from Class 4, which shouldn't help Atakan who was 4th LTO or Gold Emery/Hold The Note who were both pulled up and Atakan now wears a tongue-tie for the first time.

All eight have raced in the last 2-5 weeks or so, so there's none quickly turned back out nor should any be rusty enough to 'need the run', but they are a bit shy on course/distance form, although Robyndzone won here on heavy ground over course and distance on his penultimate run and Atakan did win over 3m4½f on soft ground at Plumpton two starts ago, a victory that skews the Instant Expert stats in his favour somewhat...

Initial concerns here are the lack of wins for Conkwell Legend/Gold Emery (going) and Hold The Note (class) and also the temptation to be sucked in by Atakan's sole soft ground/class/distance win at Plumpton. O'Connell is also some 11lbs higher than his last win and he's 4lbs higfher than when finishing as runner-up last time out. I'm aware that there's more to handicapping than a simple punishment for running well, but if he couldn't win any of his last three outings off marks of 110, 111 and 111, is he likely to now win off 115?

There's not much else to glean from the above and I'm hoping for a bit more help from the place data...

This marks Conkwell Legend's card and re-affirms Hold The Note's lack of form at Class 3 and I've probably seen enough to discount them at this stage, unless there's a huge pace bias to be had in their favour.

Pace is an interesting concept and often a misleading term, especially in NH racing. Pace is more an assessment of race tempo, getting your horse in the right filed position and choosing the right tactics, rather than pace meaning to blast out quickly. That said, staying chases on difficult ground here at Haydock have suited those racing further forward who have (a) kept themselves out of trouble and (b) been able to dictate the tempo of the race from the front. Those racing in the front half of the field have won 70% of the races shown below from just 44.7% of the runners...

...with those leading the way faring best of all. 50 of 333 (15%) runners have been deemed to have led, but they've managed to win 13 (32.5%) of the 40 races, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...could well tip the scales in Robyndzone's favour.

Summary

Robyndzone heads the pace chart and was one of my initial quartet of 'possibles', but his Instant Expert scores aren't great and he'd probably want quicker ground and a shorter trip, whilst Jubilee Express looks better suited by the conditions and won't be far off the pace. Ali Star Bert is likely to race in mid-division, which isn't ideal, but if he doesn't let the leaders get too far ahead, he's in good enough form to play catch-up especially as he receives 2-20lbs from his rivals. O'Connell is another who'll have to work from mid-field and these conditions are probably as good as he's going to get at this grade (he'd be better down in class), but he's carrying too much weight in my opinion (aren't we all?).

My first thoughts were that we've a race of two halves with these four the main protagonists, but whilst I stick by that theory, I think that this front four might also be a contest of two halves, as I see Jubilee Express to just be slightly better than Ali Star Bert, whilst O'Connell and Robyndzone battle it out to make the frame. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, Hills (only book open) had the field priced as follows...

...which isn't too far from how I have it. Of the 'other' four, all of whom are 8/1 or longer, Atakan is probably the one most likely to upset the applecart as an E/W punt.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/03/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.10 Huntingdon
  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 3.10 Huntingdon
  • 7.45 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all those races above, the Cheltenham is obviously the highest-rated, but only six including an odds-on favourite are set to go to post. We do, however, have a 'free' race containing a TS qualifier, So we're off to the 1.10 Huntingdon, a 14-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will pretty much be three miles on soft ground after an 80 yard rail movement is taken into account...

Whilst 14 runners takes me a little out of my comfort zone, my initial thoughts were that both LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and that with the bookies paying four places we get find a decent E/W pick or two. Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler are the only LTO winners here and the latter comes here seeking a hat-trick.

Call Off The Dogs and top-weight Twenty-Twenty both won two starts ago and the latter was third here over course and distance last time out. Kankin, Ramore Will, Supasunrise and Doyens de Ante have all won at least one of their last seven, but lower down in the weights, Family Pot, Est Illic and Boys of Wexford have failed to win any of their last 7, 15 and 8 races respectively, whilst featured runner Dusautior, Deja Rouge and Bolberry Down are still maidens after 3, 11 and 11 attempts each.

Most of the field raced at this level last time around, but Kankin, Ramore Will and Dusautior are all dropping down from Class 4 and the latter now makes a handicap debut after three modest hurdles efforts (beaten by 24, 33 and 60 lengths) over two miles. Perhaps he's really a 3-mile chaser? He also sports cheekpieces for the first time and has had wind surgery during the 107-day break following his last outing.

Elsewhere Deja Rouge wears a tongue tie for the first time in a bid to get off the mark at the twelfth attempt. That said, i wouldn't be holding my breath about a horse whose last six runs have seen him pulled up four times, finish 5th of 9 46 lengths adrift and was last home of eleven (74 lengths down) on his penultimate start.

Dusautior's 107-day break is the longest here, whilst our oldest (13) runner Ramore Will has been away for three months with the others all having raced in the last 2 weeks to 2 months; our two LTO winners were the most recently active, one of whom, Galway Mahler is one of two course and distance winners along with Doyens de Ante. Kankin and Supasunrise have also both won here in the past, landing 2m4f chases, whilst Twenty Twenty, Ramore Will, Martalmixjac and Family Pot have all won over similar trips to this one, as highlighted by Instant Expert below...

...where despite making a first appearance here at Huntingdon, Ramore Will seems to have the best 2-year record under expected conditions and he has won 3 of his last 7 over fences. From a win perspective, Boys of Wexford has struggled at Class 5 (1 from 8 in the last 2 years and 1 from 13 overall), whilst Family Pot 'boasts' a similarly poor record over this type of trip. Galway Mahler has yet to tackle a soft ground chase, but looks well suited otherwise.

If we're going to be looking at possible E/W opportunities, then we should consider the place stats from those races above and they look like this...

...from which I'm mostly interested in choosing from...

Twenty-two races isn't a huge sample size, but we've that many similar past races to draw upon to help us see what kind of running style might work best here and the stats tell us...

...that those setting the pace are far more successful than those chasing, but that those doing most of the chasing have the best place percentages. We track how horses run and this field's last few efforts look like this (with those I've already discounted greyed out)...

...with the top four of most immediate interest.

Summary

I originally suggested that our LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and both score well on Instant Expert and pace, but Galway Mahler scores best throughout and would be my choice here, hopefully at around 4/1 to 5/1 when the market opens. Martalmixjac should certainly runs his race and be thereorthereabuts, but I wouldn't expect him to be an E/W backable price for my stipulations.

This leaves Supasunrise who has been pretty consistent (4 top-3 finishes inc 1 win from his last 6) this season under today's jockey and Doyens de Ante who needs to bounce back to form after a couple of indifferent efforts. He was in great nick last season around this time of year finishing 2211 in and around this trip and could be dangerous if getting back near those performances. This pair are hopefully to be priced around the 9/1 & 20/1 mark respectively and could be decent E/W options with the 10/1-ish Family Pot one of the more likely alternatives.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/03/2024

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...

...1-year form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Fontwell
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton

Our three 'free' races and our four TS races have nothing better than Class 4 to offer us, mind you Class 4 is as 'good' as it gets this Wednesday and of the three Class 4 races above, only two have eight runners or more, from which one is a maiden hurdle, leaving me to focus upon the 6.30 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack as is often the norm here...

FORM : Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Nariko both won last time out, whilst LTO runner-up Media Shooter won two starts ago, Roman Emperor won four races back and Kinnigoli Kid won three back, but Mashadi and Brunel Nation are both maidens after five and three outings respectively, although Mashadi was the runner-up in each of his first four starts.

CLASS : All bar Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Brunel Nation ran at this level last time, but his trio all step up a class, which surely won't help the latter to get off the mark?

WHAT'S NEW? : It's handicap debut day for Jungle Mac, Nariko and Brunel Nation and a second handicap start for Kinnigoli Kid. It's also yard debut day for both Macanudo and Nariko, whilst both Mashadi and Brunel Nation run for the first time since being gelded. This will also be the first time that Mashadi, Kinnigoli Kid and Brunel Nation have raced on anything other than turf.

LAST RUN : Half of the field have raced in the last 11-26 days, but Brunel Nation, Nariko, Mashadi and Kinnigoli Kid now return from lengthy absences of 142, 161, 162 and 199 days respectively.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Macanudo and the two maidens Mashadi and Brunel Nation have already won at least once over today's trip with both Media Shooter and Nariko having won over course and distance on their penultimate and last runs respectively and those course wins can be seen below on INSTANT EXPERT...

As is often the case, we get more information from the place data than we do from the win stats when we deal with inexperienced runners and it's good to see that those who have faced similar conditions in the past have ran well. Seven to nine runner contests over this left-handed six furlongs at Kempton have definitely favoured those drawn lowest, according to our draw analyser...

...which could be very good news for one of the two Instant Expert stand-outs, the in-form Media Shooter who has landed stall 1 here, but getting the best draw is only half of the story here at Kempton as best explained by the pace analyser from those 200+ races above, where there's a clear emphasis on being up with if not setting the pace...

...rendering this draw/pace heat map pretty unsurprising...

So,we know that Media Shooter has the plum #1 draw, but his best chances of winning are going to be by running prominently or better still, setting the tempo of the race. Fortunately for his chances here, this is how he raced when a runner-up over course and distance last time out...raced keenly, led 1f, chased leader, led again inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong..and when a course and distance winner two starts ago...chased leaders, switched left, effort and pushed along 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, ran on well.

This gave him a pace score of 3 in both races and here's how the whole field have approached their most recent contests...

...which suggests that Roman Emperor and Jungle Mac from stalls 2 and 7 might well dispute the early lead, but I suspect that having Roman Emperor just next door will drag Media Shooter along nicely.

Summary

Form, Instant Expert, draw and pace all point me towards Media Shooter here and I'm hoping that once the markets are formed that we can get 4/1 to 5/1 about him. I might be being a little optimistic there, of course, but he's the one that interests me most here. Next best might well be Jungle Mac who also comes here in good nick, having defied a 132-day absence to get off the mark recently. He hasn't been too badly treated with an opening mark of 79 and much will depend on his ability to get to the front early on from stall 7.

I like these two because not only are recent results good and they've got the 'right' pace profile for this contest, but they've also both raced in the last 17 days. Coming off a break is tough in sprint contests here at Kempton, but of the four returning from a layoff, the filly Nariko would be the one most likely to get involved. She cost 600,000 guineas at the breeze-up and was a course and distance winner on her last outing.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/02/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.45 Punchestown
  • 3.05 Doncaster
  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 5.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded just the following pair of qualifiers on 30-day trainer form...

And with the Donny race from the race being a better grade than the three A/W options above, we're off to Town Moor for the 3.05 Doncaster, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good to soft ground, that is already soft in places with more rain expected...

My immediate thoughts were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Big Blue Moon, Betterforeveryone and Event of Sivola (not the usual de Sivola). It's worth noting that Big Blue Moon hasn't raced for 11 months and is up in class here, as are Event of Sivola and bottom-weight Roxboro Road, whilst Almazhar Garde drops down a level, having failed to place last out.

In fact, Almazhar Garde hasn't won a race since mid-April 2021 and is on a run of 19 consecutive defeats. All bar Roxboro Road (no win in 11 since April Fools Day 2021) of his rivals have, however, won at least one of their last seven efforts with Horacio Apples winning three of seven and our sole LTO winner Event of Sivola having two wins and a runner-up finish from his last three. Roxboro Road is also one of just two (Big Blue Moon being the other) yet to win over this trip, although the field's 5-year stats over fences aren't great...

...especially when you bear in mind that Roxboro Road's win are all from three years ago or more and Big Blue Moon has yet to tackle a fence! I suppose the fact that he's in my initial top-3 despite not having been chasing yet and he hasn't raced for eleven months sums up the lack of quality here! The place stats do at least give us more to work with...

...and they suggest that Betterforeveryone should relish conditions here, having made the frame in two from three over fences. He fell at the first fence here on the time he failed to place, so we've no idea how he would have ran, but he has tended to run in mid-division like many of this field with only Event of Sivola showing any propensity to get on with things...

...and it looks like Event of Sivola's running style might just pay dividends here for a third win in four...

Summary

I started with Big Blue Moon, Betterforeveryone and Event of Sivola as my three 'most likelies' and whilst not all three have presented an outstanding or compelling case for themselves, I stand by the call, because none of the rivals have made me change my mind. Of the three, Event of Sivola would be the one I'd pick. He comes here in the best form (121), he gets weight from the other two, he's the only one of the three to have won at this grade and could well be given a soft lead to defend over a course and distance that has rewarded front runners.

Of the other pair, I'd take Betterforeveryone over Big Blue Moon, as the former scored better on Instant Expert and will race further forward, whilst the latter makes a chase debut after an 11-month break and has never gone beyond 2m4f. Big Blue Moon is probably the one of the trio that looks most vulnerable/susceptible to one from the pack beating him and the one lost likely to do so looks like Horatio Apple's, as the other four runners look out of their depth.

Unsurprisingly, the bookies have also split the field in two with the first-to show Bet365 offering these odds at 4.30pm Tuesday...



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