Tag Archive for: TS report

Racing Insights, Wednesday 11/05/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is not only Wednesday's free GOLD feature, but is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the TS report, we also have, as always, a selection of fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.35 Gowran Park
  • 1.40 Worcester
  • 3.35 York
  • 4.25 Gowran Park
  • 8.10 Perth
  • 8.30 Bath

My settings for the TS report...

have generated the following qualifiers...

...and although it's nowhere near the best race on offer, I'm going to look at that 8.30 Bath contest, as it's a 'free' race that has a TS report qualifier in it. It's a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo Flat Handicap over a left handed mile on firm ground and here are the runners and riders...

My initial reaction on seeing the field was that we're probably focusing on the top third or half of the card, which is good for our TS report qualifier, Adatorio, who carries top weight. He probably brings the best recent form to the table, as none of these have won recently, Girl In The Picture has also put a couple of decent efforts together too, finishing as a runner-up in two of her last three starts. Aurelia Gold has made the frame a couple of times too, but it's slim pickings elsewhere.

Two runners are on handicap debut (Mr Freedom & Greg The Great) and two are having a second crack (Life's A Beach & Belisa De Vega). Our two handicap debutants are our only class movers as Greg The Great drops in from Class 5, whilst Mr Freedom ran at Class 4 LTO, but that was 251 days ago and only Life's A beach (273 days) has been off the track for longer with Greg The Great also coming back from a layoff (168 days). The rest have all raced in the past nine weeks.

We know from the TS report that Clive Cox (Adatorio) has a good record here, but so do Mick Channon (Mr Freedom), Brian Meehan (Bella Caelia) and Michael Attwater (Bear To Dream), although the latter has struggled for winners of late.

Only Bella Caelia (1 from 7) has actually won a race and the field has a combined record of 14 places from 92 starts (15.2%) and seven of the field have had a total of 34 races without placing. Bella Caelia win came in a 7f soft ground (1m, firm today!) handicap last October, but she has been 11th of 12 and last of 13 in two runs since and in the absence of any other wins, we'll move straight to the place stats on Instant Expert and hope for the best. Fingers crossed...

So, none of the field have raced on firm ground, but the track is a bit softer in places, so I've included Good to Firm going and my initial thoughts about where we should concentrate are clearly amplified here. Three of the top four have at least made the frame under similar conditions and I'd be inclined to say they'll be my three against the field. The rest of the field look so bad that I'm not convince the draw or racing styles will help any of them past those three, but let's quickly check anyway.

We appear to want a mid to high draw here...

and with my currently preferred three berthed in 7, 10 & 12, that's good news, but what about the pace of the race? Well, anything bar a hold-up position would work here...

It seems that the further forward you race of the three non hold-up styles the better, but for the places, it's the opposite way around. There's not actually a great deal of pace in this contest...

...but if you rearrange that chart into pace score order, my three are in the first four ranked...

Summary

I've quickly whizzed through this race on purpose. It was worth looking at,, because we had an "in" via the free race and the report qualifier, but we don't dwell on poor races. That said the three I highlighted early on are definitely the three to beat for me, it's just a case of what order they finish in.

ADATORIO
Placed in each of his last two outings and his 3rd of 13 over C&D last time out was his best run to date. He goes off the same mark here, but is effectively 3lbs better off due to William Cox's claim and having been beaten by 3,75 lengths last time could be much closer this time around.

GIRL IN THE PICTURE
Was a runner-up beaten by a neck at Windsor a month ago and was a runner-up again here over 1m2f last week, going down by three parts of a length. Down in trip off the same and now ridden by Hollie Doyle, this might well be her day to get off the mark.

AURELIA GOLD
On the face of it, an established Class 6 runner with 5 places from 7, but all her form is on the A/W and she's only raced twice on turf before finishing last of 6 and 14th of 18 back in July 2021 and she's the weakest of my three.

If Aurelia Gold is my third pick, its down to Adatorio from the TS report and Girl In The Picture and I've a marginal preference for the latter.

My 1-2-3 are priced at 10/3 fav, 4/1 2nd fav and 7/1 4th fav, so we're not reinventing the wheel here, but we might have a winner on our hands.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/05/22

Wednesday's free GOLD feature is the Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one containing information on a trainer’s recent (14/30 day) form, and their longer term (1/5 yr) course form. The report can be filtered by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss and clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, whilst clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

We also have the usual selection of full free racecards, and they'll cover...

  • 2.25 Newton Abbot
  • 2.40 Chester
  • 3.30 Newton Abbot
  • 4.15 Chester
  • 4.20 Kelso
  • 6.00 Kempton

My fairly tight settings for the TS report...

...have provided three runners for me to consider...

...but one of the Devon NH races is a stayers' handicap, so let's look at the 3.30 Newton Abbot, a 7-runner (was 8 before Emitom's withdrawal), Class 3, 4yo+, handicap hurdle (12 flights) over a left-handed 3m2½f on good ground...

No LTO winners on show today and none were even placed on their last outing, but both Quick Draw and Valentino has won twice in their last five starts, whilst Skatman also has a win on his recent formline. We've three class movers here, as The Macon Lugnatic drops in from Class 2 with both Ennistown and Valentino stepping up from Class 4.

The latter hasn't been seen for 166 days either, but the rest of the field have all raced in the past five weeks. Trainer/jockey-wise, we've a few big names on show who come here with good track records (O'Brien, Henderson & Nicholls yards and the likes of Cobden and de Boinville in the saddle)

RATFACEMCDOUGALL
Finished 2171P111 in a 6-month purple patch from October 2020 to April 2021 before leaving Graeme McPherson for Fergal O'Brien, but has sadly shown little since the switch, making the frame just once in six runs, but he does now go off a mark 6lbs lower than his last win and his yard have been going well of late...

QUICK DRAW
Has made the frame in 7 of 8 over hurdles, finishing 112 in his last three efforts (Nov/Dec '21), but has ran poorly of late when tackling fences a couple of times. He moved yards between those two chase outings and now he is reverted back to hurdles, where I suspect we'll see him in a better light, even if he is 2lbs higher than his last win.

SKATMAN
Won a novices hurdle at Musselburgh in March 2021 after a 466-day absence, but also won again in another Novice event here at Newton Abbot (2m1f) next time out, albeit 221 days later. Sadly an opening and subsequent handicap marks of 122, 124 and 121 have been beyond him and I'm not convinced a 1lb drop is enough to get him winning again. Should give his usual race, but a place might be the best he could expect.

WEARAPINKRIBBON
Finished third in both bumper outings in 2020 and then won on hurdling debut over 2m5f at Tramore. Sadly never got anywhere winning again in four subsequent starts for Willie Mullins and moved yards earlier this year. Just one run so far for his new handler saw him finish last of seven, beaten by over 60 lengths at Wincanton last month and he's probably the worst of this bunch, now omitted from my thoughts.

THE MACON LUGNATIC
Had a decent enough start to his career in bumpers/.hurdle race before being sent chasing last winter to little effect, although he was third of seven, beaten by just over two lengths in the fifth and final one of those runs. He reverted back to hurdles in February to finish as a runner-up over 3m½f at this grade, before stepping up in class LTO for a six lengths defeat. Now eased a pound and back down in class, should give another good account of himself.

ENNISTOWN
Won a hunter chase over 3m½f two starts ago, but that was at Class 6 and almost 14 months ago and hasn't raced at all for just over a year since finishing 5th of 16 in a 4m1f, Class 4 hunter chase at Cheltenham. Now making a yard debut after a year off and tackling hurdles for the first time since September 2018, he's best left watched, I'd have thought.

VALENTINO
Won back to back Class 4/5, 3m+ handicaps in September/October last year, but hasn't raced since mid-November. Last autumn's form would be interesting here, but this is a much tougher ask up at Class 3 and carrying much more weight at 8lbs from outside the handicap.

Instant Expert says...

...that they've all won on good ground, but we're a bit shy of Class 3 success. We've a couple of course winners and Ratfacemcdougall has good numbers over today's trip, but probably from a while back, whilst the pace stats tell us...

...that we've not enough data about mid-division runners to make a judgement, but leaders often get overhauled by those chasing them and moreso by hold up horses coming late. Leaders make the frame the most, suggesting that they're often picked off by just or possibly two from behind, whilst hold-up horse who swoop late seem to either win or fail to place completely. Our runners have tended to run as follows...

...and in the absence of a natural pace-maker, I guess the whole graphic will just shunt slightly to the right, giving us something like...

...with Ratfacemcdougall and Skatman setting the tempo of the race and the former ultimately making a target of himself, probably causing his own downfall.

Summary

If my theories about pace are correct, then Ratfacemcdougall will fall upon his own sword and with Wearapinkribbon discarded early in the piece, we're down to five. Valentino has ability, but is up in class and runs from well out of the handicap and Ennistown will probably need the run, so they're now gone too, leaving me with Quick Draw, Skatman and The Macon Lugnatic and despite him not appearing to tick many boxes along the way, I keep ending up back with the last of that trio.

Skatman will run prominently and is a former course winner, but a place is the best he can hope for, whilst Quick Draw's consistency over hurdles is excellent, but something draws me back to The Macon Lugnatic. He looks like this trip will suit him, he hasn't got a bad record over hurdles and his yard are going well right now. It's not going to be a big bet, but I've just the feeling that in a race where very few are in form, his narrow defeat two starts ago and his good run in a higher grade last time out are the best recent runs by this field.

I checked the market at 5.35pm and was a little dismayed to see my pick at 11/4, I expected a bit more juice in the price if I'm honest, but it's possibly a truer reflection of his chances. For the places, I think Quick Draw's consistency should see Skatman off.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/04/22

Our free Gold feature each Wednesday is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, it can be filtered by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss, whilst clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Like virtually all of our reports, you are free to set your own parameters, depending on how many horses you want to see each day, but I have mine set fairly restrictively...

We also have a daily selection of fully functional free racecards and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.40 Leopardstown
  • 4.15 Leopardstown
  • 4.55 Kempton
  • 6.20 Leopardstown
  • 7.30 Kempton

I'm not really into/well up on Irish racing if truth be told and the two free Kempton races aren't setting my pulse racing either, but I've got a TS report qualifier that might be worth a second look...

...as trainer Julie Camacho sends the in-form 5 yr old gelding Proclaimer out to tackle the 8.00 Kempton : a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack in a bid to land £5616...

Now from the racecard alone, we see that with 4 wins from his last five outings that Proclaimer brings the best set of recent results to the table, we know he ran in this grade last time out and that was three weeks ago and we know that he's a former course and distance winner. The card also tells us that Miss Camacho's horses aren't in the best form (14) right now and that today's jockey will be claiming 5lbs off Proclaimer's mark of 78, effectively making him bottom weight here.

You'll notice the number 3 under his name and clicking that opens up some report stats about the horse and I've also copied in Julie Camacho's course stats...

Julie's horses have indeed gone really well here over the last 12 months, winning 6 of 8, but she actually owes virtually all that success to Proclaimer who is 5 from 6, as per the Horse for Courses stat. Julie's horses are indeed 0 from 10 over the past fortnight, but that's a small sample size and the volatility of such data is exemplified by the fact although she's 0 from 10 (0%) over two weeks, she's also got a 15.4% strike rate (2 from 13) over the last three weeks, so I'm not unduly concerned about her form, especially with a course specialist like Proclaimer.

Proclaimer clearly likes it here and his overall career A/W handicap record stands at 7 wins from 12 (58.33% SR), which impressively includes...

  • 6/10 over a mile
  • 6/8 on std to slow
  • 5/6 here at Kempton
  • 5/6 over course and distance
  • 5/6 at prices of 4/1 and shorter (where I suspect we'll be here)
  • 5/6 on polytrack
  • 5/6 going right handed
  • 4/5 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3/4 after 16-30 days rest
  • 2/4 at Class 4
  • 2/2 under jockey Oisin McSweeney
  • and 2/2 this year

Instant Expert will hopefully back up some of these stats...

..and it also tells us that whilst Proclaimer's recent results are the best on show here, his Instant Expert numbers are also the nest, but that the likes of Lafan, Flyin' High and Uzincso might also have a say in proceedings.

Proclaimer comes here having won six of his last seven (5 wins here and 1 at Newcastle on Tapeta) with the only blot being a poor run at Newcastle when stepped back up to Class 4 off a mark of 73. In fairness, that was his sixth run in less than three months and he may have been a little overdone by then.

He was subsequently rested for 12 weeks before reattempting Class 4 off 73 to win here by a head, just doing enough. That got him another 3lbs rise to 76 for his next/last run, but it still didn't stop him running a career best effort to win here again by a nose in a tight finish (6th place was 1.75 lengths back).

The runner-up that day has since been beaten by just over a length off a mark of 86 at Class 2, so there's a chance that Proclaimer still has some scope for improvement. We don't really know, because he seems to find more each time and the inference always seems to be that he's just doing enough from the front, as he prefers to control the pace of the race, as documented in his pace stats below...

So, I'd expect him to be the one setting the fractions here with the three others highlighted on Instant Expert forming the initial chasing pack and you'd have to assume that if Proclaimer has been so successful here of late from the front that leading would be the best policy over a  mile here at Kempton.

As such, the following data probably won't cause too many shocks amongst our readership...

So, he's in prime form, he's a course and distance specialist, he's got the perfect pace profile, what could possibly be against him?
Perhaps the draw?
Well, he's drawn in 6 of 9 here and in isolation, that's a poor stall to run from, but looking at the wider picture...

...the mid (stalls 4-6) draw is perfect and with stalls 5 & 7 being the two highest scorers, you'd have to say that the numbers for stall 6 were anomalous at best. Personally I'm not that worried about such a draw. After all he won here from stall 6 of 9 two starts ago!

Summary

As Racing Insights meets old friend Stat of the Day, I do like Proclaimer as a runner and also his attitude, always finding more. Conditions look ideal for him here and although I expect fellow course specialist (112 over C&D) Lafan to be the biggest threat to his chances, I'm happy to take the early (3.40pm) 4/1 price from Hills. Lafan is the current 3/1 fav, but I'd rather be on Proclaimer and I'd not be shocked if they were the first two home.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 30/03/22

Midweek beckons already and we 'celebrate' Wednesdays by opening up the Trainer Stats (TS) report to all readers.

But this report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

But wait! We can make Wednesdays even more wonderful with the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 2.35 Lingfield
  • 3.30 Market Rasen
  • 5.05 Wincanton
  • 6.00 Kempton

My settings for the TS report have actually generated a handful of possibles for me to consider, but the second of the free races looks an interestingly competitive affair, so let's have a quick look at the 3.30 Market Rasen, a 9-runner (was 10), Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle (10 flights) over a right-handed 2m5f on good ground. The prize of just over £11,100 is worth winning and will go to one of...

Feivel is our only LTO winner today, but all bar Calico, Boreham Bill and Shantou Express have won at least one of their last six outings. LTO winner Feivel is one of two stepping up a class, along with The Street, whilst Ornua and Mackelduff are down a class, whilst Calico last ran (unsuccessfully) in a Grade 3 16 days ago.

No former course and distance winners today, although Boreham Bill, Ornua, A Distant Place, Shantou Express, Mackelduff and Feivel have won elsewhere at similar trips, whilst Boreham Bill won here over 2m1½f in a bumper.

Mackelduff returns fromn a two-month break and Ornua last raced 16 weeks ago, but the others have all raced in the last five weeks with Guernesey maintaining his good form just nine days ago. Lots of trainer/jockey positives on show here : easier to point out those not highlighted ie Ornua and A Distant Place.

So, a competitive looking line-up, I've not formed an opinion of who I like just yet, but I'm not keen on the likes of Boreham Bill (age/form), Ornua (age/form) or Shantou Express (form), but let's have a look at each in turn...

CALICO
Started his career by finishing 121 during Jan to March 2021 and went well in couple of races either side of New Year before finding the Imperial Cup at Sandown a bit too much. Useful type but a big step up in trip and probably wants it softer.

BOREHAM BILL
Had a good winter in 2020, culminating in winning the Lanzarote at 66/1 in early January 2021, but hasn't kicked on since then. The weights are in his favour here based on past form, but he's not getting any younger and he too would like a bit of rain.

ORNUA
Won an Aintree Festival Grade 1 hurdle almost three years ago, but certainly isn't that horse now at 11yrs of old. His better recent performances have been over fences, but in three runs since a win in early July, he has been 3rd of 4 (21L), 8th of 9 (23L) and last of 9 (115L) : the last two of which were for his new handlers.

A DISTANT PLACE
A win and a place from three PTP events before going hurdling. Since finishing 4th of 9 on debut, he has been in the first two home in all four starts, winning over 2m4f at Hereford two starts ago, despite being off track for 333 days. 2m was probably a bit sharp for him at Ludlow LTO, but defied a last hurdle error to hang on for another runner-up finish. You'd expect him to be involved.

SHANTOU EXPRESS
Beaten by just a neck at Wetherby over 2m a little more than a year ago, but has regressed since, finishing last of 7 (49L), 5th of 6 (37L), pulled up before 5 out over 2m½f, last of 14 (53L) and although he stayed on for third LTO, he was 18 lengths behind the leading pair and never in the race. I'll be surprised if he's in this one, especially up in trip.

GUERNESEY
One win in twelve doesn't tell the full story about this 6yr old other than he doesn't win often enough. His only win came at Exeter last October and since then he has five top three finishes on the bounce and not beaten by more than a length and a quarter in any of them. A model of consistency, whoever beats him normally wins the race.

THE STREET
Just five starts to date and got off the mark two starts ago on soft ground at Chepstow, before finishing as runner-up at Hereford a month ago, 2.5 lengths behind the re-opposing Feivel. He's no better off at the weights here and probably wants softer ground, but could well be in the shake-up.

MACKELDUFF
Returned from a 14 weeks absence to win a Class 2 at Aintree in October, picking up from an earlier Class 4 at Southwell and although he ran creditably for third in two races after the Aintree win, he was disappointingly beaten by 20 lengths at Uttoxeter at the end of January, when sent off as a 5/2 favourite. Probably too high in the weights.

FEIVEL
Has won two of his five starts since the start of December, and caused a bit of a shock when landing the spoils at 22/1 at Hereford a month ago, beating The Street in the process. He's up in weight and class here, but so is The Street and he's every chance of maintaining that advantage if the ground isn't too quick for him.

So, we've started to build up a picture of their recent history and I've suggested that some might not be suited by class/going/trip/weight etc, but the easiest way to spot such inadequacies is via Instant Expert, of course...

Now, we prefer green to red, of course, but some of the reds need closer analysis. For example, Shantou Express' 0% on good ground (0 from 1) is arguably better than Boreham Bill's 11% from one win in nine, as Boreham has more failures on his record and Shantou could possibly win two of his next eight? So, with that in mind, we don't like Boreham Bill on going/class/distance and then next worse is apparently Guernesey, but if we remember about his consistency in handicap hurdles...

...we probably shouldn't write him off so soon, even if he is 11lbs higher than his last win. Sadly that what happens when you regularly make the frame without winning. Mackelduff's numbers are interesting, but he's badly out of sorts/form right now, whilst A Distant Place has few qualifying runs, but has done well in them.

The pace stats for this type of race says that in the past, only hold-up horses have fared worse than expected...

...and based on their most recent outings, that's probably the final nail in the coffin for Boreham Bill and Shantou Express, who I haven't really liked from the start...

Nothing has made me warm to Ornua either and as a confirmed but unsuccessful front-runner, he'll be the target they all aim for. I think Calico wants it softer and Mackelduff is too high in the weights and out of form, leaving me with four to pick from.

Summary

I've whittled the field down to four now and they are (alphabetically) A Distant Place, Feivel, Guernesey and The Street. I think if things go to a similar pattern as last time out that Feivel holds The Street and I think they're battling each other for bronze here.

All of which says that I think either A Distant Place or Guernesey is the winner and I think it's a close call. Bet365 have them at 3/1 and 4/1 respectively, but Hills go the other way at 9/2 and 10/3. I'd like to think Guernesey's consistency will see him home here, so I'll have small 4/1 bet there and do the reverse forecast!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/03/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, you can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to making the TS report free to all every Wednesday, we're also delighted to share fully functional access to the following racecards...

  • 4.35 Catterick
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

None of those four really float my boat, but my settings for the  ...

...have generated two horses for me to look at...

We start with The Sumba Island in the 3.25 Catterick, a 6-runner, soft ground, Class 5, 5yo+ Novices Handicap Chase consisting of 16 fences over a left-handed 2m3f and here's how the horse looks on the card...

So we see that Laura Morgan not only has a good record over the past month, particularly in handicaps, but she also has done well here at Catterick. In respect of today's race, her 30-day record of 8 wins and 3 further places from 21 handicappers includes...

  • 8 wins, 3 places from 18 chasers
  • 6 wins, 3 places from 15 at Class 5
  • 7 wins from 13 on soft ground
  • 6 wins, 3 places from 13 in Class 5 chases
  • 7 wins from 12 in soft ground chases
  • and 5 wins from 8 in soft ground, Class 5 chases, from which today's jockey David Noonan is 1 from 1.

Laura also has the green C5 icon denoting a decent return at the track and closer inspection shows 4 winners and 6 further placers from 16 handicappers here since the start of 2018, including...

  • 2 wins, 4 places from 8 at Class 5
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 6 chasers
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 on soft
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 in Class 5 chases
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 soft ground Class 5 contests

All of which gives the horse some hope here, but what of this 5 yr old mare? Well, she's lightly raced (as most 5yo female chasers tend to be!) and makes a chasing bow on her second handicap start in what will be just her sixth run to date. She was a well beaten (23L) 5th of 7 in a Class 5 Fakenham bumper on debut almost four months ago, before finishing 4th of 5 (12L), 10th of 12 (28L) and 6th of 8 (49L) in three Class 3 hurdles contests, giving her an opening handicap mark of 102 off which she duly finished last of seven, beaten by 16 lengths over a 3m trip at Fakenham a month ago.

The last three of her runs have been on soft ground, so she's used to it even if she hasn't gone too well on it. She ran at today's trip on hurdles debut, but has been tried at 1m7½f, 2m, 2m3½f, 2m5f and 3m without success. She has however been dropped 8lbs down to a mark of 94, which should help and the yard has a great recent record in handicap chases. I'll show you the place side of Instant Expert, not that she has achieved anything, but just so you can see whether she has tackled similar races before...

So, a couple of unsuccessful tries at Class 3 and similar trips, plus three failures on soft ground don't exactly inspire confidence in a horse who has been held up in three of her four starts over hurdles...

...a tactic that if repeated here is highly unlikely to bring much joy on a track that heavily favours the front runners...

*

Then we head to Fontwell, where Venetia Williams tends to hold centre stage in handicap contests and her sole runner of the day heads for the 3.50 Fontwell, a race she won last year. Sadly, we've only got four runners for this Class 4, 5yo+ Mares Novices Handicap Chase over 3m2½f taking in 19 fences around the Figure of 8 on good to soft ground and I'd expect featured horse, Eleanor Bob to go off quite short...

And we know that the Williams' yard has 7 winners and 2 placers from 19 handicap runners her at Fontwell over the last five years, because it's on today' featured report, but closer inspection of the data shows that since the start of 2020, her Fontwell handicap chasers have 7 wins and a place from just eleven starts and these include of relevance here...

  • 6 wins and a place from 10 at Class 4
  • 4 wins from 5 for jockey Charlie Deutsch
  • and 3 wins from 4 at 3m2f/3m2½f

The yard seem to be in perpetual good form and in this 7 yr old mare, they've got one at the top of her game, coming here seeking a hat-trick after back to back Class 4, soft ground, 3m wins at Chepstow and Huntingdon in the last seven weeks or so. That has, of course raised her mark from 107 to today's 120 and whilst that would require a career best effort, she's definitely the form horse in the contest and surely a better bet than fellow top weight and fellow Midnight Legend offspring Legends Ryde who comes off the back of defeats by 27 and 20 lengths, albeit at a higher level. And despite a 6lb rise for her most recent win 27 days ago, the rather self-explanatory Instant Expert says she's tailor-made for this contest...

Throughout her career, Eleanor Bob has liked to be up with the pace and has a pace score of 4 for each of her last two runs/wins, suggesting she'll take it on here again...

...and as the sole front/prominent runner in the field, this looks to be a good plan based on past races here at Fontwell...

Summary

I really don't fancy the chances of The Sumba Island at Catterick, despite the form of the yard over the past month, their success at Catterick over the years and even their excellent return from handicap chasers over the past couple of years. Maybe we'll see another side to this 5 yr old mare over fences, but I wouldn't be rushing to back her just yet and she's certainly no 13/2 third fav in my eyes. The bookies have installed Da Vinci hand as the 5/4 fav and whilst that's a bit skinny, he should be winning this. 5/2 second fav Spot On Soph is probably second best but she's an out and out hold up horse and they struggle here. Something like the 10/1 Whos The Guvnor might be of interest, though from an E/W perspective.

As for Eleanor Bob, I expect her to win at Fontwell and it's just a case of at what price, by how far and who fills the frame for the forecast. She's currently 11/8, I expected 11/10 or possibly shorter. I think she'll be well clear if putting it on early and I think the bookies have the order correct with the 5/2 Miss Jeanne Moon the next best. That's my 1-2 for this race and whilst I'm not normally a fan of backing horses at 11/8, there could actually still be some value there.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/03/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is Wednesday's free Geegeez Gold feature and is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the rather excellent TS report, we also have these fully functionable free racecards...

  • 3.05 Wincanton
  • 3.30 Musselburgh
  • 4.15 Wincanton
  • 5.30 Kempton

And I'm going to take a look at trainer Jeremy Scott via the TS report, because of the following...

A yard clearly in form and with a good record at Wincanton over the last year, we need to at least have a quick look at his runners.

Champagne Court is a 9 yr old gelding, who'll be ridden by Lorcan Williams in the 2.30 Wincanton, a five-runner, Class 3, 2m4f, soft ground handicap chase, whilst Manofmanywords is a 10 yr old gelding to be ridden by Bryan Carver in the 4.50 Wincanton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 2m6f, soft ground handicap hurdle.

Jeremy's 7 from 20 handicap record over the last 30 days contains the following of relevance here...

  • 6/18 in NH races
  • 3/12 over hurdles
  • 4/9 on soft
  • 4/8 at Class 3
  • 3/6 over fences
  • 2/4 here at Wincanton
  • 0/4 at Class 4
  • 0/2 for Lorcan Williams
  • and 0/0 for Bryan Carver

...which would suggest the Class 3 chaser, Champagne Court has the best chance. Further analysis of Jeremy's fine handicap record here at Wincanton actually shows him as having 6 winners and 2 places from 13 here since the start of 2021 and these include...

  • 3/8 over hurdles
  • 3/6 at Class 3
  • 3/5 over fences
  • 2/5 at Class 4
  • and 2/2 on soft

...very reassuring figures indeed, so let's look at the horses themselves...

Champagne Court has seven consecutive top 3 finishes (3 x chs, 4 x hrd) showing high levels of consistency and has a 2 from 12 record across both spheres, making the frame in 13 of those 24 races. He's eased a pound here after back to back runner-up finishes off a mark of 130 and should relish conditions, as he has...

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 13 on soft ground
  • 3 wins, 5 places from 9 at Class 3
  • 1 win, 4 places from 6 at 2m4f
  • 1 win, 3 places from 4 under Lorcan Williams
  • made the frame in one of two Wincanton outings

Some of the above is documented in Instant Expert above, which also shows that he's now a massive 9lbs lower than his last winning mark, despite his recent good form. The pace tab tells us that he loves to be up with the pace...

...and that definitely seems to be the favoured tactic at this type of event...

All in all, plenty to like about Champagne Court and not much to dislike. If I can get a reasonable price, then I'll back him.

*

The second Jeremy Scott runner, Manofmanywords is sent to action later in the meeting...

For a 10yr old, he's very lightly raced after just five starts under Rules, all in the last 13 months and all over hurdles finishing 89358. The first two of those runs were both here at Wincanton last February over 1m7½f on heavy ground and the first marked his return to action some 691 days after winning back to back PTP contests in March 2019, suggesting he might end up as a stayer/staying chaser. He hasn't really fired over the smaller obstacles just yet but does jump well by all accounts and his best effort under Rules was a soft ground affair under today's jockey.

He has raced prominently in three of his last four starts...

...and the report from his debut says he chased the leaders, so I'd say he's a solid 3 on the pace score, which probably gives him his best chance of breaking his duck, if nothing else...

...whether he's actually good enough is another question or is he just being eased into things before tackling fences?

Summary

I do like Champagne Court, the trainer's stats favoured the chaser, his own record is excellent and 7/2 with bet365 looks a good price. Second favourite 3/1 Ubetya is the main danger for me, but I do like CC's chances here.

Manofmanywords not so much, sadly. I'm really not sure what the plan is for him and this looks way too competitive for him. Smoking Pigeon is a worthy 4/1 favourite here, but I'm not sure I'd want to put money on him, but with bookies paying four places (some pay five) the 11/1 shot Justified is interesting as an E/W play.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 23/02/22

Wednesday's free feature is the Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to the User Guide for further information]

But that's not all the free stuff for Wednesday, there are also the following full racecards...

  • 1.00 Punchestown
  • 3.45 Newcastle
  • 3.50 Punchestown
  • 5.30 Kempton

The free races don't excite me today, but I do have a couple of qualifiers from the course 1 year handicap filter on the TS report, so let's have a look at those, shall we?

Back to back races at Ludlow, starting with the 3.00 race, where Tom George sends the 6yr old French gelding Chaptal into a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle (9 flights) on a right-handed, soft ground two mile trip...

Ex-French winning hurdler but limited impact in a trio of chase outings for this yard. Hopes rest on switch back to timber.

His UK form consists of just three modest at best efforts over fences and he's now going to be tried over hurdles, where he had plenty of success in France, winning five of his six races, invariably in the mud and at 2m1f/2m2f including the Grade 3 Prix General de Saint-Didier in November 2019, so going and trip shouldn't be an issue, nor should the class of the race if he regains that kind of form.

The downside of course, is that his last four outings have been unspectacular and his "new-ish" yard aren't enjoying as much success as they'd like and they're just 2 from 45 over hurdles in the last 6 months. Both winners were ridden by today's jockey Jonathan Burke (from 27 attempts) but he's riding pretty well right now with two winners and two runner-up finishes from seven rides over the past week. I should also point out that the strength of the yard's numbers here is all built upon their chasers : the George handicap hurdlers are 0 from 20 here!

Instant Expert, of course, tells us very little about him, as most of his form is in France...

The pace stats here at Ludlow say that you need to be up with the pace to succeed in this type of race and front runners do exceptionally well...

...but sadly Chaptal has been held up on each of three starts since coming to the UK...

...which doesn't bode well for him nor Duca de Thaix!

*

The next race on the Ludlow card is the 3.35, where Venetia Williams sends the 9yr old gelding Didero Vallis into action in a another right-handed, soft ground, Class 3 handicap. This one, however, is a three mile chase over 19 fences and features ten runners...

This looks a really wide open race, where you could make a case of several of the runners and whilst Didero's form doesn't look great numerically, but he was a good second here over course and distance just before Christmas on ground that may well have been too quick for him. He's not the horse that made the frame at Gr 2 and Gr 3 back in 2018/19, but with three wins and a place from eight in this grade, he's more than capable of landing this. He's 5lbs lower than that C&D runner-up finish in December and on preferred softer ground, he has every right to be in the mix here.

The Williams' yard is flying as it always seems to do around this time of the season and their soft ground chasers keep on churning out the results. Their soft ground handicap chasers are 25 from 107 (23.4% SR, A/E 1.37) at trips of 2m7f to 3m2f since the start of 2019, including 6 winners from 14 this year so far. Surprisingly only 4 of those 107 chasers have been here at Ludlow, but they've finished 1141!

Instant Expert says that Didero Vallis is proven under expected conditions...

...and could be dangerous here back on his last winning mark if (a) he's up for it and (b) gets the right kind of ride of ride from 3lb claimer Lucy Turner, who rode a chase winner for this yard on her last appearance.

As with the previous race, leaders do very well in this type of contest, but aside from hold-up horses performing really poorly, the other running styles are acceptable too...

...and Didero certainly likes to get on with things...

He'll need to improve upon recent performances, but he's well weighted today and conditions look ideal.

 

Summary

You'd like to think that Chaptal could rediscover his French form and put in a great display here, but the stats suggest otherwise and he might well need the run to get used to hurdles again. Horses priced at 25/1 win rarely and sadly I'm not expecting this to be one of those days. If pushed for a pick here, I'd probably side with Black Poppy at 7/2.

As for Didero Vallis, I think he has a great chance here depending on how things fall and whilst I'm not sure he's a winner today, he should be there or thereabout and at 10/1 with Bet365, I'll be having an E/W bet. I also liked Kilbrook, who's nicely priced for an E/W punt at 8's and I'd imagine the 11/4 fav I K Brunel to be involved.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 16/02/22

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form : for each of 14 day, 30 day, course one-year, and course five-year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to a sneak peek at a GOLD feature each day, we also offer a selection of full free racecards to non-GOLD subscribers and for Wednesday, they are for...

  • 2.05 Wetherby
  • 3.30 Dundalk
  • 4.00 Dundalk
  • 4.22 Wetherby

And whilst my fairly strict settings for the TS Report...

...have actually generated some qualifiers, the first of our free races looks too good (from first glance) to not cover, so we're off to West Yorkshire for the 2.05 Wetherby, an 8-runner (hope it stays that way for E/W bettors), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in eleven flights over a left-handed 2m4f (after a +84yd rail adjustment) on soft ground...

Flash the Steel is now 10yrs of age and hasn't raced since late November 2020, but was a Class 2, 2m4½f winner on that occasion and now makes a re-appearance off a mark 1lb lower than that win. You'd probably want to see how he goes first time up, but he has 2 wins and 2 places from 6 on soft ground and the yard are 22 from 61 (36.1% SR) over hurdles here since the start of 2019, but jockey bookings suggest stablemate Shannon Bridge is first string.

Arrivederci won here over course and distance at the end of October 2020 off 5lbs lower than today's mark, but hasn't won any of just five outings since. He did make the frame in back to back races at Ascot including a decent run as runner-up in a grade 3 in January 2021. Looked like needing the run at Taunton recently after 324 days off track, but could go well here after that effort.

Up For Parol won back to back 2m contests (here and at Ffos Las) last spring before taking six months off. He returned to action at Chepstow in October to finish 3rd of 7 in a Grade 2. Since then he has won on handicap debut over 2m3f on soft ground at Haydock and ran well in the Lanzarote (Listed) at Kempton LTO when 6th of 19 over 2m5½f on soft ground. The drop in class and trip should help here.

Her Indoors was a winner on the Flat over 1m3½f, so would have decent ground speed and started hurdling life well, finishing 22101 in her first five, culminating in a Grade 3 success over 2m1f at Cheltenham last April. She hasn't quite hit those heights this season, though, finishing fifth on both occasions and wouldn't be an obvious pick here.

Shannon Bridge will be ridden by Harry Skelton suggesting he's the yard's first stringer, but he comes here in no real form at all. He ended last season with back to back wins here over 2m5f (heavy) and then at Ascot (2m3½f, soft) off a mark 4lbs higher than today. This season, though has seen him pull up, 7th of 9, last of 14, last of 9 and then 3rd of 8 LTO. That latest effort was back her at Wetherby over a soft-ground 2m4½f and although it's a slight drop in trip and he's down another 2lbs, he is back up in class and this looks a tough ask on form.

No Word Of A Lie ran 422 in bumpers in early 2021 and was a runner-up on hurdles debut over 2m4f on soft ground at Uttoxeter back in October despite being off the track for seven months. He got off the mark in a Class 4 Novice event at Sedgefield (2m4f, soft) two starts ago and was only beaten by a length and three quarters up in class last time out on heavy ground. He's up a class again here and up 2lbs, but drops in trip, the ground will be a little easier and he looks a reliable type.

Homme Public was second and then first in his opening hurdles contests and was a decent third at Haydock at the start of December, but was well beaten at the same venue last time out and now up in class, he's needing to improve greatly to get involved here.

Findthetime completes the line-up and receives weight all round as he seeks a hat-trick. Has made the frame in all four starts to date and after landing a novice hurdle at Sedgefield over 2m1f in November, he then stepped up in trip to win on handicap debut at Catterick just after Christmas. Form alone makes him of interest, but he is up 5lbs and two classes and this represents his toughest task to date.

All eight runners have won at least once on soft ground, three of the four to have raced here have won on this track and all bar two of the field have a distance win under their belt. Weight variations from their last win range from +5lbs down to -5lbs and all of this is verified via Instant Expert...

...where Up For Parol is probably the eye-catcher, although most of the field have some positives about them. The bottom three on the card lack experience at Class/Course, whilst Shannon Bridge's 3/10 record over this trip is supplemented by a further 3 places.

At this point, I'd have to say that Up For Parol is ticking more boxes than the others, but 2m4f on soft ground isn't always easy at Wetherby and based on the last twenty contests under similar conditions...

..those setting the pace have fared much better (8/26 = 30.8%) as opposed to those further back (12/133 = 9%) in the field, so pace could well be the decisive factor here. This makes our pace logging feature vital, as we note the running style of every horse in every UK race and here's how this field have approached their last four contests...

...which would suggest the likes of Her Indoors and Flash The Steel are likely to struggle and that the top three of that pace chart would be best suited.

Summary

Up For Parol is the 5/2 favourite here and I can see why he's the fav, based on the above. I'm not entirely sure about the price, I would have been hoping for a bit more juice, but he is what he is.  I do believe that if any of them beat him, they'll be the winner. The main challenges are likely to come from Findthetime if he's not held up and Arrivederci, but if you wanted an E/W punt, I'd not deter you from an 8/1 shot at No Word of a Lie, who I thought might be a bit shorter.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/02/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is the free GOLD feature each Wednesday and is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the TS report, we also offering the following full free racecards to all readers...

  • 1.37 Sedgefield
  • 2.45 Fairyhouse
  • 2.52 Fakenham
  • 3.52 Fakenham

None of the free races make much appeal to me, so I'm going to look at Venetia Williams's record in handicaps over the last year at Ludlow...

Four wins and two places from twelve is good going and she has three arrows on Wednesday.  The first of them looks like going off pretty short in a four-runner contest, so I'm going to focus on Chambard and Bellatrixsa today. The former goes in a 7-runner, Class 3, handicap chase over 2m4f on good to soft ground, whilst the latter runs over 2m5f in a mares handicap hurdle, also at Class 3 on good to soft ground.

The Williams horses are 16 from 65 (24.6% SR) in Ludlow handicaps since the start of 2017 and this includes of relevance here...

  • 8/41 (19.5%) at Class 3
  • 10/44 (22.7%) in chases
  • 6/21 (28.6%) over hurdles
  • 1/1 (100%) for jockey Harry Bannister
  • 11/40 (27.%) with horses rested for 45 days or less
  • 6/20 (30%) over trips of 2m4f to 2m5.5f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) on good to soft ground
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) were placed LTO

...all of which is positive news for our two spotlighted runners, so let's now have a look at Chambard...

...who might well be 10yrs old now, but returned to action on New Year's Day to land a heavy ground 2m3f chase at Exeter despite coming off a 265-day absence during which he had a wind op. That his first win over fences at the sixth attempt and he was a little unlucky not to follow it up next/last time out at Lingfield, despite an extra furlong and going up in class (+1) and weight (+9). He ran into the promising Zhuiguli (2/3 over fences at class 3) that day. but still beat eight others home.

He has been a runner-up here in the past, has finished 1226 on good to soft ground, has a win and a runner-up finish from two starts under today's jockey and is a three times runner-up from five efforts over today's trip. That's the meat to add to the bare figures shown on Instant Expert...

...which suggest that he's generally there or thereabouts, but has failed to turn places into wins. That said, if you're not in the frame, you can't win anyway! The main note of caution would be his mark at 122, some 12lbs higher than his win at the turn of the year, but he has run well in defeat off higher (runner-up off 125 three times and 126 twice), so 122 might not be beyond him if he can roll the years back here. His recent return to form has also come since switching back to a hold-up tactic, one that had served him well earlier in his career, but I'm not convinced it's the best approach here...

...but he did actually set the pace when second here over hurdles three years ago, so in-running punters might want to wait until they see how he sets out.

*

The 5yr old mare Bellatrixsa proved her staying credentials by making all to land a 2m½f A/W handicap at Newcastle in October 2020 prior to embarking on a hurdles career that has so far seen her finish 51122 with the '5' coming in a Listed race at Aintree on hurdles debut 14 months ago.

Her last run was just over three weeks ago when a runner-up at Chepstow at this grade over 2m3½f on soft ground, where she was a tad unfortunate to bump into the Skeltons and West To The Bridge, whose mark had dropped 11lbs since his last win and Bellatrixsa was 22 lengths clear of third place. That run came after a 205-day absence, so she's entitled to strip fitter here and a 1lb drop in her mark should also offer a little help. In her five hurdles contests to date, she's 1/1 here at Ludlow (2m5½f), has finished 112 on good to soft, 122 at 2m3½f to 2m5½f and she has won both right handed runs with some of this data verified via Instant Expert...

...which is a very strong looking string of data. When she won here three starts ago, last May, the race report said...'tracked leader, not fluent 5th, led before not fluent 3 out, headed narrowly and bumped after 2 out, led again last, stayed on flat...' and this is consistent with the way she has generally run over hurdles...

...but somewhat surprisingly, that's not considered the best approach here at Ludlow...

...although an IV of 0.99 doesn't suggest an impossible task from a prominent position and a better than average chance of making the frame here.

Summary

Two Venetia Williams runners with excellent chances here and I'll be relatively surprised if both don't make the frame. I'd suggest that Belletrixsa is a more likely winner than Chambard, who looks like he's got a couple of tricky customers to beat in the shape of Gortroe Joe and Quoi de Neuf, but if he can master his fellow 10yr old Gortroe Joe, then the race could well be his.

As for Belletrixsa, she's just about my pick of her race, but I fear/suspect that Trapista might make life tough.

Chambard is currently priced at 9/2, which is probably about right and the same as Quoi de Neuf with Gortroe Joe the 11/4 fav, so the market seems to haver the same thoughts as me, whilst B is the joint 5/2 fav with Trapista and again I think that's about right. Small stakes for a bit of interest from me with a very small punt at the double around the 17/1 mark.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/02/22

Wednesday's free Geegeez Gold offering is the excellent Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this free feature, we still have our usual selection of full free racecards and they will cover...

  • 4.00 Dundalk
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

My settings for the TS report have only generated one possible under the 14/30 day form tab...

...and I don't really fancy that one, so I'll revert back to the 'free' races and take a look at the 7.00 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap
over a right handed 1m3f on Standard To Slow polytrack. It's worth £5,616 and here's how they line up...

The bookies seem to think it's a four-horse race between the top three on the Geegeez Speed ratings along with Crown Power, who actually has the same SR figure as third placed Daheer. My own initial thoughts were that I agree with that prediction, but that doesn't mean we're right or wrong!

Half of the field have won at least once in their last five starts : Daheer, City Tour, Bristol Hill, Elmejor, Berrahri and Almufeed. Elmejor won last time out, whilst Almufeed comes here on a hat-trick. Almufeed, however, is up two classes today and Elmejor, Crown Power & Hackbridge are all up from Class 5. Most of the field are aged 5 or 6, but 2nd-time handicapper Bristol Hill is only 4 and Berrahri is the ripe old age of 11! Bristol Hill has already scored over a similar trip to today and old-timer Berrahri is a former course winner, but City Tour, Just The Man and Crown Power have won at course and distance. We've a fair mix of in and out of form trainers/riders, where green is better than red.

Daheer is the one who shows up best on Instant Expert...

...despite not having raced here before, but I should say that all his form is at Wolverhampton, but he'll be dangerous here off just 3lbs over his last winning mark. Conversely, Berrahri looks very vulnerable, especially with just two placed finishes from 21 efforts at this grade. Almufeed also looks strong here, but the other two "fancied runners" haven't really ripped up any trees. Just The Man is now 12lbs lower than his last win, but that's because his form has been poor for the two years since his last win.

The draw stats here say that the lower the draw the better...

...and if we treat stall 4's results as being an anomaly, there's an almost linear decline in success from stall 1 to stall 8 with a slight improvement thereafter, presumably from horses attempting to "slingshot" the bend. Daheer is out in stall 7, but the other three of the original four are in stalls 1, 3 & 4 with Bristol Hill & Just The Man completing the lower half of the draw.

We've a good range of running styles here, based on their last four outings ranging from out and out front runner Berrahri to absolute hold up horse Just The Man, but to be honest half of this field are generally held up for a run...

And on this occasion, it's Almufeed of the original four who fares best, as yet again, there's an almost linear feel to the pace stats with leaders faring best and hold-up horses the worst...

...yet strangely the low-drawn leaders aren't the most successful here...

...and if I place our runners where I think they sit on that chart...

...then Elmejor is probably best suited, as is Berrahri, Angel On High and then probably Almufeed & Bristol Hill.

Summary

None of these tick all the boxes. I started with a notion/feeling that it was between Almufeed, Crown Power, Daheer & Elmejor in alphabetical order. Almufeed and Elmejor brought the best form to the table, whilst Daheer topped the Instant Expert scores followed by Almufeed.

Almufeed, Bristol Hill, Crown Power, Elmejor & Just The Man were the ones in the perceived "better" half of the draw. Almufeed and Bristol Hill were also in the "better" half of the pace profiles, along with Angel on High, Berrahri and Hackbridge and this then led to Elmejor, Berrahri, Angel On High, Almufeed & Bristol Hill scoring best on pace/draw.

All of which explains why Almufeed is the current 9/4 favourite. My concern is the big step up from Class 6 to Class 4 and an 11lb rise over two races and I fear he'll be vulnerable to the likes of Daheer who looks to be coming back into form and could offer some value at 11/2.

Of my other other pair, I've not much separating Elmejor & Crown Power and it really could be an either/or job from this pair of 5/1 shots.

 

Racing Insights, 24th November 2021

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

We think that the TS report is so helpful that we make it freely available to all readers every Wednesday, a day where winners can often be hard to find and this is in addition to our usual selection of free races, which will be...

  • 12.30 Hereford
  • 2.00 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 5.30 Dundalk

As is often the case, my own personal settings for the TS report...

...haven't generated very many horses to consider, just two in fact!

So, from 14-day handicap form...

...and from course 1-year handicap form...

...we've got two look at, starting with Josie Abbing, a 7yr old who runs in a 4-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f (4327 yards) on Good ground, shown on your cards as the 2.40 Hereford...

We know from above that Fergal O'Brien is in great form with 10 winners and 7 placers from 30 handicappers, but a quick dive into them shows that they include...

  • 7/21 over hurdles
  • 7/17 in fields of 8 runners or fewer
  • 6/11 at Class 3
  • 4/9 with 7yr olds
  • 4/15 over hurdles
  • and 3/7 with females
    BUT...
  • just 2/13 at trips shorter than 2m4f
  • and 0/4 with today's jockey.

Josie Abbing has only made two starts for Fergal O'Brien, but was a half length runner-up on yard debut over this course and distance six weeks ago. She was sent of as the 11/20 fav that day as she raced off today's mark of 100, but was beaten by 9 lengths on unsuitably soft ground last time out.

Of her handicap hurdle form where's has won 2 of 16, Instant Expert tells us...

...both her wins have been on good ground (she made the frame in both Gd to Fm runs, in case it dries out), she's 0/2 at Class 3 (both wins were at Class 5), she's 0/2 here (but was that 0.5 lengths runner-up over C&D on her last visit) and she's some 9lbs higher than her last win 9and a stone more than her other hcp hrd success), so not much to get excited about here.

She's a confirmed hold-up horse, which hasn't been too bad a tactic at Hereford over the years, but leaders have fared best and based on her last two runs (both wins) Nikap might blast her rivals out straight from the start giving Josie too much to do...

There is a danger that all three might go off too quickly for her, forcing her to get too involved too soon.

*

Now we head over the water for a rare Insights foray into Irish racing, where the 3 yr old filly, No Browsin takes on 13 rivals (Hell Left Loose is a reserve) in a 45-65 rated, 3yo+ A/W (polytrack) handicap over a left handed 7f and here's the card for the 2.30 Dundalk...

We've already seen that trainer Sarah Lynam has 8 winners and 8 further placers from just 23 handicappers here at Dundalk over the last year and this 34.8% strike rate is not only excellent but is also in stark contrast to her overall 7% strike rate (19/270) and her 8/23 here over the past 12 months include of relevance today...

  • 7/20 in fields of 12-14 runners
  • and 2/6 with females
    BUT...
  • 0/2 over 7f
  • no 3 yr old runners
  • and no rides by today's jockey, Billy Lee but at least the rider is in good form elsewhere.

No Browsin is very lightly raced so far, having been seen just four times to date. She was 3rd of 14 over C&D on debut 11 months ago, beaten by just half a length and a short head, but that has turned out to be a poor maiden with just 3 winners from 84 races since.

She took five months off after debut and then struggled in two races on the turf at Cork in the summer, before taking another 161 days off prior to re-appearing here at Dundalk a week ago, where she was beaten by less than 3 lengths over 6f, finding no extra late on. It's highly possible that she needed the run and will improve here, though.

With a formline of 3057, Instant Expert isn't going to tell us very much at all from a win perspective, so here are her stats from a place point of view...

...again, not a great deal to go on, but she has at least had some relative A/W success already. She makes a handicap debut off a mark of 62 here, meaning she's going to be carrying top weight. As she has precious little form of her own, to be top rated suggests a poor contest against many runners well tried and failed. In fact, the most successful horse in the field is the 8yr old Fit For Function with an 8.5% strike rate (7 from 82), but the rest of the field are just 13/273 (4.76% SR) combined, which speaks volumes.

No Browsin is drawn in stall 8 of the 14 runners and a middle draw has been successful enough in the past...

... and even if her particular stall doesn't have the best win record...

...I'd say she was in the right area to start from. pace is going to be very important, but with just two A/W and two turf runs, it's quite possible that she hasn't yet fully adopted a running style, but she scored a 2 and a 3 on her two A/W runs to date...

...and if she runs to that mid-div/prominent position again, then I'd advise the latter rather than the former, based on past races here...

...if she can crack on with it, she'd have more chance, but I'd imagine this pair will be setting the fractions...

Summary

The bookies have Josie Abbing as 9/4 second favourite, but the Geegeez SR figures have her as third best of our and I'd sadly be inclined to agree with the SR. The 11/8 fav Nikap reverts to the smaller obstacles today, but should be running away with this one and I'd expect the 4/1 Golden Emblem to be the biggest danger.

As for No Browsin, she could be something but she could be nothing. On the plus die, she doesn't have a string of failures already behind her, but then again she ahs no experience and makes a handicap debut off what looks a tough mark. She's drawn midfield and I'd not be surprised if she finishes midfield (or first or last etc). This isn't a race I'd want to get too involved in (not just because it's an Irish one). That said, if I was to play, I'd want to find a firm paying 4 places, if not 5 so I could have a small E/W punt on the 5 yr old mare, Pimstrel, assuming I could get 14/1 or bigger, that is!

But of our two possibles we started with : NO BETS.