Tuesday's pick was...
2.40 Wolverhampton : Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Restless in stalls, chased leaders, pushed along before halfway, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after)
Wednesday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG
...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm worth £4,690 to the winner...
Well, when I think racing is poor (and it is today), I try to look a bit further down the market for something that should represent some value and give us a run for our money and I expect both to happen here with an experienced runner whose best runs have come on the Flat where he has won six of fifty-four at a reasonable if not earth-shattering 11.11% SR, but it's how he has got those six wins that is of interest today, as he is...
- 6/40 (15%) for 4pts (+10%) over 7½f to 8½f
- 6/25 (24%) for 17pts (+68%) off a mark (OR) of 75-86
- 5/31 (16.1%) for 3.42pts (+11%) at 4-25 dslr
- 5/26 (19.2%) for 11.55pts (+44.4%) going right handed
- 5/19 (26.3%) for 20.17pts (+106.2%) at Class 4
- 4/13 (30.8%) for 18.53pts (+142.6%) on Good to Firm ground
- 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley
- 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley over 7½f to 8½f
- and 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.41pts (+73.5%) over this course and distance.
Things didn't go his way LTO at York over a mile at Class 3, but he now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, where he was a runner-up two starts ago at this class, course, distance and OR mark of 86. He was only beaten by half a length on that occasion and his cause today should be helped by the booking of 7lb claimer Tyler Heard in the saddle.
Taking 7lbs off is only really useful, if the jockey him/herself brings something to the table and Tyler appears to have something about him judged off his start to life in the saddle, where he is currently 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 26.12pts (+81.6% ROI) profit with his 7lb claim, including...
- 4/18 (22.2%) for 34.09pts (+189.4%) on the Flat
- 4/16 (25%) for 36.09pts (+225.6%) in the last 28 days
- 3/11 (27.3%) for 36.25pts (+329.6%) on Good to Firm ground
- and 3/10 (30%) for 37.25pts (+372.5%) over the last four weeks on good to firm flat ground.
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!