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Stat of the Day, 10th February 2017

Thursday's Result :

6.25 Chelmsford : Babouska @ 7/2 BOG non-runner

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

I'm expecting Vyta Du Roc to bounce back to form now he's dropped in class, especially with the Nicky Henderson stable in such great recent form, having saddled up an astonishing 12 winners from 26 (46.2% SR) in the last 14 days alone!

When chasing Thistlecrack home at Aintree in 2015 Grand National Meeting, he was rated at 150 over hurdles and then went on to beat a couple of decent 150+ chasers La Mercurey & Minella Rocca) at Ascot last year. He's been a touch disppointing of late and now finds himself almost a stone lighter in the ratings at 139.

He's not been at his best recently, but he has been running at a higher grade in larger fields than he's happier with. A quick look at his record shows he's actually 6 from 11 in fields of less than 14 runners and he's also 6 from 11 when priced below 6/1.

On top of those stats, he 3/5 on soft ground (which at least some of the track will be!), 2 from 6 under Daryl Jacob, 2 from 2 going right handed and won his only previous Class 3 outing.

So, we have a yard in form running a horse who looks well suited by conditions, the final piece of the jigsaw is to see how the yard fares at the venue in general and since the start of 2012, Nicky Henderson's runners here at Kempton are 73/249 (29.3% SR) for 102.5pts (+41.2% ROI) and these excellent figures also contain the following of relevance / interest to me today...

  • those with no more than 15 previous runs  : 67/204 (32.8%) for 118.2pts (+57.9%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 60/194 (30.9%) for 106.2pts (+54.7%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days back are 33/110 (30%) for 82.7pts (+75.2%)
  • handicappers are 19/85 (22.4%) for 65.9pts (+77.5%)
  • chasers are 22/69 (31.9%) for 12.9pts (+18.7%)
  • on soft ground  :18/67 (26.9%) for 13.5pts (+20.2%)
  • on Good to Soft : 16/56 (28.6%) for 34.5pts (+61.5%)
  • and at Class 3 : 15/50 (30%) for 21.6pts (+43.2%)

...which suggested to me...a 1pt win bet on Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG which was available with 10Bet, 188Bet, NetBet and Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Munir and Souede Invest For The Future

Grandouet wins for Simon Munir

Grandouet wins for Simon Munir

Hailing from the world of finance, Simon Munir and Isaac Souede know better than to place all their eggs in one basket. Hedge funds and investment solutions may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but for these guys buying stock with huge potential is their bread and butter.

It’s no surprise then to see their partnership flourishing with this winter set to be their most successful to date. With horses spread among numerous trainers the team are most familiar for having runners with Nicky Henderson.

Simon Munir has owned horses at Seven Barrows for several years with a great deal of success. Soldatino got the show on the road in 2010 when winning the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. A year later Grandouet had the owner dreaming of future Champion Hurdle victories, though sadly never quite reached such heights.

Raya Star did manage to win a Scottish Champion Hurdle for Munir under the guidance of trainer Alan King. Recent Grade 2 and 3 successes have come from a pair of classy mares in Ma Filleule and Une Artiste.

But it’s the Munir/Souede partnership that looks set to take such achievements to a new level. The team certainly has a mighty set of youngsters who could well dominate the Triumph Hurdle in March. Peace And Co won the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster earlier in December with consummate ease. Trained by Nicky Henderson, the French import was incredibly slick over his obstacles.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Then at Chepstow over Christmas another arrival from France, this time trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, produced a stunning performance in the Future Champions Finale Hurdle. Bristol De Mai has the look of a chaser, but is set to make an impact over the smaller obstacles after beating a quality field which included Alan King’s top juvenile Karezak.

Yesterday at Newbury we had the latest three-year-old from France to burst onto the scene, when the aptly named Top Notch gave lumps of weight and a beating to a decent type from Harry Fry’s yard. This latest ‘flying machine in green’ is also trained at Seven Barrows, as is the potential star four-year-old L’Ami Serge. Last seen winning the Supreme Trial at Ascot, he is yet another purchase from across the Channel. Towards the head of the market for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in March, he’s a powerful looking son of King’s Theatre.

Vyta Du Roc was another running for Munir and Souede yesterday at Newbury. He was just edged out in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle and looks set to be a serious contender in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival. The partnership also has a classy filly in Ireland under the guidance of champion trainer Willie Mullins. Gitane Du Berlais has strong French form and could make into a serious contender for the mares race at Cheltenham.

With many owners now looking to France for potential stars of the sport, Simon Munir and Isaac Souede are certainly making their presence felt in the market place. This is a partnership that is going places, and they look set to compete aggressively with the likes of Gigginstown, the Ricci’s and the Brookhouse’s of the sport.

Time will tell if their financial expertise is an aid to future success. Certainly the signs so far this winter are positive. Their recent investments appear to be particularly profitable.

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2014

Katkeau was already a beaten horse before being pulled up 3 from home on Saturday, as he weakened in the latter stages of what became a bit of a slog at a sodden Chepstow on Welsh National Day.

Back to England for Monday's runner, who attempts to give his trainer a second successive in the...

2.10 Newbury:

A Grade 1, 4yo+ hurdle over 2m5f on soft ground, better known as the Challow Novices' Hurdle won by Nicky Henderson's Captain Cutter last year and he hopes to repeat the feat with the 5 yr old Vyta du Roc this year and there are some compelling stats as to why he might just succeed.

Here at Newbury...

Mr Henderson's Class 1 hurdlers have won 6 of 40 races (15% SR) for 17.5pts (+43.7% ROI) in the last 5 years.

Vyta du Roc steps up a grade here today...

And Hendo's runners priced between 6/4 & 6/1 have won 37 out of 140 races when stepping up a grade since 2009. Those winners have generated level stakes profits of 29.8pts at an ROI of 21.3%, whilst those running in Class 1 contests are 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.7pts (+66.8% ROI) in the last five years.

The horses is unbeaten in all four starts here in the UK...

Your first 30 days for just £1

And horses aged 4 to 7 running in a Class 1 to 3 hurdle boasting a 100% record have maintained their winning run on 100 occasions from 318 attempts since 2009 with this 31.5% strike rate producing 91.7pts (+28.8% ROI) profit. Obviously there'll be a lot of horses in that list with just one race/win under their belts, but further down the line, horses with a 4/4 record went on to record a fifth win nine times from 26 attempts (34.6% SR) for 10.6pts (+40.7% ROI) profit.

And back to Newbury...

Nicky Henderson's unexposed, but not raw (ie 2 to 10 starts) runners over obstacles (ie no bumpers)have a good record when competing here at Newbury on the back of a top 3 finish last time out, winning 34 of 98 (34.7% SR) races yielding 66.5pts profit at an ROI of 67.9% and of those there is a 13/28 (46.4% SR) record from those running within 21 to 30 days of their last run.

These horses have produced level stakes profits of 88.7pts (+316.6% ROI), whilst those running in hurdles races here within 21 to 30 days of a win LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 14.6pts (+132.7% ROI).

Vyta du Roc is still improving/progressing with each run he has, obviously with a 4/4 record, all his stats say 100%, but of note is his 2/2 record on soft ground and he's used to going left handed, he's used to small fields and I'm confident he'll handle the extra furlong.

I'm looking forward to what promises to be a decent race in which I expect Vyta du Roc to prevail at 9/4 BOG. I'm on with Paddy Power, whilst the same is available with Hills and Coral amongst others.

For a fuller market picture...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD : 29/12/2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2014

Katkeau was already a beaten horse before being pulled up 3 from home on Saturday, as he weakened in the latter stages of what became a bit of a slog at a sodden Chepstow on Welsh National Day.

Back to England for Monday's runner, who attempts to give his trainer a second successive in the...

2.10 Newbury:

A Grade 1, 4yo+ hurdle over 2m5f on soft ground, better known as the Challow Novices' Hurdle won by Nicky Henderson's Captain Cutter last year and he hopes to repeat the feat with the 5 yr old Vyta du Roc this year and there are some compelling stats as to why he might just succeed.

Here at Newbury...

Mr Henderson's Class 1 hurdlers have won 6 of 40 races (15% SR) for 17.5pts (+43.7% ROI) in the last 5 years.

Vyta du Roc steps up a grade here today...

And Hendo's runners priced between 6/4 & 6/1 have won 37 out of 140 races when stepping up a grade since 2009. Those winners have generated level stakes profits of 29.8pts at an ROI of 21.3%, whilst those running in Class 1 contests are 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.7pts (+66.8% ROI) in the last five years.

The horses is unbeaten in all four starts here in the UK...

And horses aged 4 to 7 running in a Class 1 to 3 hurdle boasting a 100% record have maintained their winning run on 100 occasions from 318 attempts since 2009 with this 31.5% strike rate producing 91.7pts (+28.8% ROI) profit. Obviously there'll be a lot of horses in that list with just one race/win under their belts, but further down the line, horses with a 4/4 record went on to record a fifth win nine times from 26 attempts (34.6% SR) for 10.6pts (+40.7% ROI) profit.

And back to Newbury...

Nicky Henderson's unexposed, but not raw (ie 2 to 10 starts) runners over obstacles (ie no bumpers)have a good record when competing here at Newbury on the back of a top 3 finish last time out, winning 34 of 98 (34.7% SR) races yielding 66.5pts profit at an ROI of 67.9% and of those there is a 13/28 (46.4% SR) record from those running within 21 to 30 days of their last run.

These horses have produced level stakes profits of 88.7pts (+316.6% ROI), whilst those running in hurdles races here within 21 to 30 days of a win LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 14.6pts (+132.7% ROI).

Vyta du Roc is still improving/progressing with each run he has, obviously with a 4/4 record, all his stats say 100%, but of note is his 2/2 record on soft ground and he's used to going left handed, he's used to small fields and I'm confident he'll handle the extra furlong.

I'm looking forward to what promises to be a decent race in which I expect Vyta du Roc to prevail at 9/4 BOG. I'm on with Paddy Power, whilst the same is available with Hills and Coral amongst others.

For a fuller market picture...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.