Double Dutch, 12th October 2013
We got back amongst the winners again yesterday, where even a huge 45p Rule 4 deduction couldn't stop us making a reasonable profit on the day.
Unfortunately, my favoured horse in race 1 (Franciscan) was withdrawn from the action and at odds of around 11/10, this caused the deduction.
This meant that the 3/1 we'd taken on the alternate pick, Sergeant Mattie, was effectively reduced to 1.65/1 or 33/20 if you prefer. He then opened on track as short as 5/4 before eventually winning comfortably at 10/11!
This gave us 2 shots at the second race with a grand total of 1.825pts going onto each pick. First choice Icon Dance faded badly late on to finish 4th, but it was the second choice who saved the day again.
We'd taken 9/4 on Miguel Grau and he was very impressive, staying on strongly to win by 8 lengths going away at odds of 5/2.
This ensured a 6.39 pts overall return, courtesy of the 5/2 single and the 8.28/1 double.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Sergeant Mattie: won at 33/20 (SP 10/11)
Miguel Grau: won at 5/2
Icon Dance: unplaced
Trial to date:
37 winning selections from 133 = 27.82%
10 winning doubles in 37 days = 27.03%
P/L : -6.33pts (-8.73% ROI)
If we can achieve back to back successes as we have done several times before, we could very well threaten to get into profit after these races today...
It's very hard to see anything other than this becoming a 2-horse race between War Command and Outstrip. Between the pair, they have five wins, as second and a third from their seven outings. They have 3 wins and a second from 4 Group 2 efforts, whilst War Command was third on his Group 1 bow.
I don't think is anywhere near the strongest renewal of this event, which is a shame as it lacks real depth. Best odds of 6/5 and 7/4 with the nearest rival out at 9/1 would tend to back up my thoughts.
It won't make for a massive double today, but I'm struggling to see how Shyron, a 6/4 shot, could lose this one. He comes here in good nick, having shed his maiden tag over this course and distance nine days ago. It's a similar standard of race and the same 7lb claimer jockey is on board. The horse has, of course, been hit with a 5lb rise in the weights, which might be the fly in the ointment to allow Sweet Amaalie to turn the tables on the selection.
She was third in that race here nine days ago and she as only headed inside the final furlong. She's expected to come on for that run and as she only went down by less than length, any improvement could see Sweet Amaalie go close on better terms at 9/2.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
War Command / Shyron @ 5.50 with BetVictor, Stan James and Betfred
War Command / Sweet Amaalie @ 12.10 with BetVictor and Betfred
Outstrip / Shyron @ 6.57 with Stan James
Outstrip / Sweet Amaalie @ 15.13 with Bet365