KEMPTON – JANUARY 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £135.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Vaziani) & 1 (Redicean)
Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Chef Des Obeaux) & 4 (Secret Investor)
Leg 3 (1.30): 7 (Rothman), 1 (Bishop) & 3 (Exitas)
Leg 4 (2.05): 4 (Waiting Patiently) & 1 (Josses Hill)
Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Top Ville Ben), 9 (Spiritofthegames), 10 (Red Indian) & 2 (River Frost)
Leg 6 (3.15): 1 (Fountains Windfall), 5 (Ballykan) & 3 (The Young Master)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: It’s worth noting that Alan King (REDICEAN) is the only trainer to have saddled two recent winners of this ‘juvenile’ event. That said, Robert Walford only held one option for the rest of the week after scoring with Kohuma at Taunton on Tuesday, that inmate being VAZIANI in this event. 5/1 looks a decent price (almost right across the board at the time of writing) about Robert’s debut Taunton winner who hails from a stable boasting recent stats of 8/29 (28% strike rate). Course form is always worth a length or three however whereby the chance of REDICEAN is highly respected especially here at Kempton, one of the fastest tracks in the country whatever relevant conditions are in situ.
Favourite factor: Favourites came to the gig on a four timer three years ago before the run was ended, though it’s worth noting that all 12 winners during the last 13 years have won at odds of 11/2 or less.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
12.55: Nicky Henderson held a couple of options for this event at the penultimate entry stage, with the trainer showing the green light to both horses, namely CHEF DES OBEAUX and DUKE DEBARRY who are listed in order of preference. Neither Nicky or Paul Nicholls (SECRET INVESTOR) have won this event thus far, though that stat looks about to change in this sixth renewal.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites filled the forecast positions four years ago before the next two (even money & 10/11) successful market leaders completed a clean sweep for jollies. That was followed by two favourites which claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events.
1.30: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals with two decent types to represent the vintage this time around. BISHOPS COURT looks solid Placepot material, though I latched onto the 14/1 Skybet odds about ROTHMAN this morning which looked well over the top. 12/1 is still available with four firms at the time of writing. There was also money around for EXITAS (James Bowen takes off a useful five pounds) overnight and this trio will carry my Placepot cash.
Favourite factor: Just one (9/4) favourite has won via the five renewals thus far, though the bad news does not end there. The other four market leaders all finished out of the frame resulting in tens of thousands of Placepot units going up in smoke in this race alone.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/5—Breath Of Blighty (good)
2.05: Three of the four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 which brings in this year’s lone qualifier JOSSES HILL into the mix, even though Nicky Henderson’s raider has not scaled the heights that looked imminent a few years back. That said, JOSSES HILL seems to reserve some of his best work for this venue and he has taken on Top Notch in his last two races!. That all said, WAITING PATIENTLY only sits 16 ounces the wrong side of the ‘superior’ weight barrier, whereby Malcolm Jefferson’s highly impressive northern challenger deserves top billing, coming to the gig on a five timer. Although Smad Place and Gods Own have both won at Kempton, their best efforts are reserved for more testing courses from my viewpoint, talented horses though they are.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged by 23 lengths before the following ten length gold medallist justified favouritism at even money. We returned to ‘real life’ two years ago when the (Paul Nicholls trained) 2/5 favourite was the only horse (of the three contenders) to fail to complete the course, though the 5/4 market leader twelve months ago floored the majority of the bookmakers, on track at least.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
2/5—Josses Hill (good & soft)
1/3—Smad Place (good)
2/2—Art Masquerade (2 x good)
1/5—God’s Own (good to soft)
2.40: This looks to be the potential ‘Placepot destroyer’ on the card and if one or two of the shorter priced horses in other races also finish out of the frame, we could yet witness a good dividend despite what the first impression of the programme offers. Six-year-olds have won six of the ten renewals of the 'Lanzarote' at odds of 20/1--9/1--8/1--9/2*--9/2**--11/4*, whilst eight of the ten winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less. TOP VILLE BEN, SPIRITOFTHEGMAES and RED INDIAN are more speculative types to add to RIVER FOST as six-year-olds dominate my permutation.
Favourite factor: Five of the 11 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four (7/4—11/4--9/2--9/2**) winners.
Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:
1/1—William Henry (good)
2/2—River Frist (good & good to soft)
1/1—Bags Groove (good)
1/1—Man From Mars (good)
3.15: The last four winners (of five in total) carried a minimum burden of eleven stones as have twelve of the fourteen horses which have secured Placepot positions thus far. Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of FOUNTAINS WINDFALL, BALLYKAN and THE YOUNG MASTER. I felt that I had to include two options alongside the favourite given that Fountains Windfall has fallen on his last two outings, albeit his chance is undeniable here if putting in a safe round of fencing.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing via two renewals of the toteplacepot finale before the10/3 market leader scraped into a Placepot position by finishing third in a nine runner contest two years ago. Life improved for favourite punters twelve months on when the 9/4 market leader duly obliged before last year’s jolly secured a Placepot position at odds of 3/1 when claiming the silver medal.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
7 runners—Nicky Henderson (8/25 – loss of 4 points) – 229/895 +72
5—Alan King (2/17 – loss of 11) – 76/482 – loss of 87
3—Gary Moore (0/19) – 28/412 – loss of 186
3—Paul Nicholls (9/19 +1) – 119/522 – loss of 53
3—Dan Skelton (0/17) – 8/101 – loss of 74
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/6 +2) – 47/330 – loss of 51
2—Chris Gordon (0/9) – 9/76 +22
2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 3/562 – loss of 10
2—Charlie Mann (1/1 – slight profit) – 19/202 – loss of 50
2—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 4/57 +8
2—Nick Williams (0/2) – 7/45 – loss of 4
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Warwick: £292.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wetherby: £149.20 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W): £57.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced