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Double Dutch, 26th February 2016

After a frustrating run of late followed by a near miss on Wednesday, Thursday proved to be a much better day for us.

Two handicap chases an hour apart yielded two winners, a runner-up (providing an 11.5/1 exacta) and a third place, meaning we came away from the day with a 13.63/1 double after Oscar Oscar and Vazaro Delafayette had won comfortably by 16 and 11 lengths respectively.

I could do with a few more days like that!

Thursday's results were as follows:

Oscar Oscar : WON at 10/3 (adv 7/2)
Discoverie : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
The Exacta paid £12.50 here to a £1 stake
----------------------------------------------------
Vazaro Delafayette : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Hollow Blue Sky : 3rd at 1/4 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
814 winning selections from 2938 = 27.68%
251 winning bets in 760 days = 32.94%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1519.00pts
Returns: 1590.13pts
P/L : +71.13pts (+4.68% ROI)

And to Friday's Selections...

3.00 Lingfield :

The penny has certainly dropped of late for Englishwoman, who now comes here with a double penalty after three consecutive wins over today's 5f (twice) and 6f. That said, she's still available at 2/1 BOG in a 6-runner race, probably due to this being her first run here at Lingfield and also because of the extra weight. Her 5lb climer jockey has replaced with one claiming 7lbs so that helps slightly and the yard has done well here in recent times. On form, Englishwoman is the clear pick...

...but should things not quite to go to plan, handicap debutant Equijade is the one I'd side with. A course and distance winner here at Lingfield on debut 13 days ago despite making an excusable start. that said, she still won by a good four lengths and although the quality of that race probably wasn't too high, she could only beat what she faced and she did that well. Further improvement is expected and as such, Equijade looks a decent backup at 11/4 BOG.

4.15 Warwick :

Anthony Honeyball has really got As de Fer on top of his game right now and depsite a hike in weights, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him land the hat-trick here over 3m on soft ground. He won on this track (3m1.5f, soft) two starts ago, before winnning over shorter on heavy ground at Wincanton three weeks ago. A quick look at his profile suggests class, track, trip, course direction etc are all ideal for him and he's 2/2 under the promisingly talented David Noonan who claims 5lbs. Based on all that, 9/2 BOG looks a tad generous.

He won't have it all his own way, though and I'd expect the 11yr old Hi Vic to pose the biggest challenge today. Lightly raced for his age with just 5 starts under Rules, a form line of 11213 is impressive stuff. Similar to As de Fer, neither the trip nor the going will be his undoing here and he is also 2 from 2 with his jockey and away from the racecourse has won two of 7 PTP contests and made the frame in 2 of his defeats. Stamina should be fine and 9/2 BOG about Hi Vic looks reasonable.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Englishwoman / As de Fer @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Englishwoman / Hi Vic @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : generally)
Equijade / As de Fer @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)
Equijade / Hi Vic @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : Bet365)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2016

Thursday's Result :

3.20 Huntingdon : Comragh @ 9/2 BOG distant 7th of 7 at 9/4 (Led, wandered into 1st, headed next, lost 2nd after 5th, weakened after 3 out. Trainer reported that the mare had a breathing problem)

Friday's runner goes in the...

3.45 Warwick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Howlongisafoot @ 6/1 BOG

Why?

Both trainer and jockey are in good form, the yard has a good record at the track and the horse should be well suited by today's conditions. In numerical terms, this is where I'm coming from...

The trainer... is Paul Nicholls and despite his abundant success over the years, there aren't many blind backing angels to take to guarantee profit, but here at Warwick since the start of 2011, you could have just backed all his runners and walked away with more money than you started with, which is the plan after all!

So, his record here currently stands at 12 winners from 35 (34.3% SR) for 13.5pts at an ROI of 38.5%, which is pretty dsecent, but there are refinements available that make the figures even better, such as...

  • those unrated or rated 133-143 are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 19.23pts (+71.2% ROI)
  • those sent off at 6/5 to 15/2 are 10/27 (37% SR) for 18.9pts (+70% ROI)
  • 5 to 7 yr olds are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 10.4pts (+43.4% ROI)
  • those who last ran 2 to 10 weeks ago are 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 16.1pts (+67% ROI)
  • chasers are 9/20 (45% SR) for 10.6pts (+52.9% ROI)
  • those running in the months of January & February are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 9.67pts (+53.7% ROI)
  • those carrying 11st to 11-5 (after any claims) are 8/13 (61.5% SR) for 14.44pts (+111.1% ROI)
  • Soft ground runners are 5/10 (50% SR) for 10.54pts (+105.4% ROI)

In addition to those track-specific 5yr figures, the Nicholls yard has roared back to form after a quiet time earlier in the season and over the last fortnight, the yard is 14 from 34 (41.2% SR) with chasers winning 6 times and making the frame on a further three occasions from just 12 runs. (50% win SR and 75% place SR), whilst in the last week things are even better with 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) for the yard, with the six chase runs yielding finishes of 11U311.

Jockey Harry Cobden has 4 winners and 3 placers from 12 rides over the last month and his sole ride on Thursday was a win in the SotD race, when he gave Hope's Wishes a well-timed patient ride to win by two lengths. In fact, it's to Harry's credit that the horse raced at all, as she was very reluctant to go again.

The fact that Harry takes the ride here and claims 7lbs, actually puts Howlongisafoot a pound better off than when he last won three starts ago, so we should be getting a decent run for our money from a horse that is 3 from 9 over fences to date and of those 9 runs, I find the following of some interest...

...he's 3 from 6 at 6/1 and shorter, 3 from 5 in fields of 9 runners or less and 3 from 3 when running 25 to 65 days after his last outing. Throw into the mix a soft ground win, a win in blinkers and a win at this trip and I'm not quite sure why/how he's the price he is!

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Howlongisafoot at 6/1 BOG, a price currently (6.20pm) available with any one of nine different firms, so to find your preferred bookie, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 16th January 2016

Another good day yesterday as winners at 6/4 (adv 3/1) and 9/4 (adv 10/3) combined for a 16.33/1 BOG double and our fourth win in six days. The BOG part of the double is key, as betting at SP only returned 7.125/1, some 56% lower than advised odds. That's real money you can't afford to leave on the table.

As for the races, I expected Al's Memory to shade the opener ahead of Pacolita, the market agreed and the winner was well backed. Pacolita just about held on for second to secure a 4.3/1 bonus exacta for us.

Then some fiove hours later, over the water, the two best in at the weights finished first and third and as the longer of my two picks, Zylan, triumphed, our returns were maximised here.

Friday's results were as follows:

Al's Memory : WON at 6/4 (adv 3/1)
Pacolita : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
The Exacta paid £5.30 here
----------------------------------------------------
Zylan : WON at 9/4 (adv 10/3)
Strategic Force : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
784 winning selections from 2800 = 28.00%
244 winning bets in 725 days = 33.66%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1449.00pts
Returns: 1540.40pts
P/L : +91.40pts (+6.31% ROI)

Today's Selections...

2.25 Warwick

Isaacstown Lad has been a revelation since a switch to Nicky Richards' yard last spring. Previously 0 from 6, he finished 6th of 12 on yard debut, needing the run after 164 days off the track and since that day has won four of his five starts. All four wins have come under today's jockey, he loves the mud and has won over this trip (Kelso, November). In this recent run, he is 3 from 3 running within a month of his last outing and at around 7/2 BOG, connections will be looking for more prize money.

His main rival, Arctic Gold is available as long as 9/2 BOG with Coral and comes here seeking a four-timer, after winning three of his four hurdle starts to date. His latest effort was a comfortable 5 length victory on heavy ground at Ludlow 12 days ago, stepped up considerably in trip for his handicap debut. He's clearly progressive and still unexposed and could still be ahead of the assessor and should go well once again here today for a yard with a good record at this track.

3.40 Naas

There may well be 13 runners declared for this one, but both myself and the market think it will be a two-horse contest between Rolling Rocket (7/2 BOG) and Mount Brandon (also 7/2 BOG). the pair last raced when finishing 1st and 2nd in very similar conditions to today at Punchestown on New Year's Eve with Rolling Rocket prevailing by three quarters of a length on that occasion, overhauling Mount Brandon deep into the final furlong.

Rolling Rocket is a former course and distance winner, having triumphed here two starts ago, but if pushed I'd probably plump for Mount Brandon to avenge that recent defeat, now that he's not only 1lb better off at the weights, but has enlisted the servies of Barry Geraghty for this rematch. No disrespect intended to Philip Enright, but I think Barry might just eke a bit more out of his mount.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Isaacstown Lad / Mount Brandon @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Isaacstown Lad / Rolling Rocket @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Arctic Gold / Mount Brandon @ 22.8/1 (9/2 & 10/3 : Coral)
Arctic Gold / Rolling Rocket @ 22.83/1 (9/2 & 10/3 : Coral)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 31st December 2015

Double Dutch, 31st December 2015

Tuesday saw us get two winners and then none yesterday! However, it's better for us to do it that way than keep getting the single unmatched winners!

It was actually one of those "nearly" days, as we got the runner-up and the third placed horse in each of our chosen races and thankfully it wasn't one of my discards that denied us success.

Alshan Fajer was the runner-up at Lingfield, getting caught right on the line to get beaten by a nose and then a couple of hours later at haydock, Friendly Royal was beaten by a length and three quarters after being outstayed. He was beaten by far enough to stop us thinking "if only" or "what if", I suppose!

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Alshan Fajer : 2nd at 11/10 (adv 2/1)
Bennelong : 3rd at 8/1 (adv 9/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Friendly Royal : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Elenika : 3rd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
766 winning selections from 2746 = 27.90%
239 winning bets in 711 days = 33.61%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1421.00pts
Returns: 1496.60pts
P/L : +75.60pts (+5.32% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

12.35 Punchestown :

The JP McManus-owned Sir Abbot hasn't quite produced the expected results over fences just yet, but has been unlucky to bump into Willie Mullins in each of his three novice chases to date. He now makes the step into handicap company off a mark 10lbs lower than his hurdles rating and with no Mullins' runners to worry about here, could potentially be thrown in.

He has already won a PTP at Avaune, a bumper at Ballinrobe and a hurdles contest at Clonmel (perhaps he needs a chase at a track beginning with D?) and his best results come at these shorter trips (2 wins and 2 places from 5 starts at 16/16.5f). Connections know what they're doing, of course, and if running to his true ability, this should be Sir Abbot's for the taking at 9/4 BOG.

The one he should fear most is the 11/4 BOG Rolling Rocket, who showed a liking for these conditions by landing a 2m chase on heavy ground at Naas last time out. He won by 8 lengths that day, stringing out a reasonable looking field in an attritional contest and has been given ample time (54 days) to recover. He has been raised 6lbs for that effort, which is fair and he retains the same jockey from that outing.

The jockey was claiming 2lbs off a mark of 96 that day, but he now gets to take 5lbs off the revised mark of 102, effectively making Rolling Rocket just 3lbs higher for 8 lengths and that should be well within his capabilities, if able to reproduce the effort.

*

12.40 Warwick :

These 9 runners are collectively holding 1 win between them from 85 races, so it's pretty reasonable to assume a lack of depth here! This makes Rebekah Rabbit's runner-up finish last time out arguably the best piece of recent form on offer (When In Roam won a bumper 8 starts and 28 months ago!).  That run was only her fifth start (4 over hurdles) and was her handicap debut 39 days ag0, when beaten by 3 lengths on soft ground over 2m4f.

Conditions are a bit worse today, but she does drop back slightly in trip and in her favour is a win and a runner-up finish from 2 PTP races in difficult conditions, showing that stamina shouldn't be a problem today. Shaky Gift was 20 lengths further back in fourth place at Uttoxeter, but she reappeared to win at Fakenham 11 days ago and with Rebekah Rabbit receiving weight from most of her rivals here, 9/4 BOG looks fair.

As a backup, I'm going to go with Solidago, who despite being a 20-race maiden, has been solidly consistent in defeat, with 9 top 3 finishes from his 20 starts (45% place SR), of which there are 6 placed efforts from 15 over hurdles. He's never raced over 2m3f before, but has made the frame four times from seven efforts at 2m2f/2m4f in the past and this is probably the weakest race he's tackled and his experience might just tell.

Ciaran Gethings takes 5lbs off here today, effectively putting Solidago on his lowest mark yet and I suppose if he's ever going to win a race, he probably won't be afforded a much better opportunity than this one. The unexposed favourite above is clearly the one to beat, but this might become a slow tactical affair, which you'd expect to suit the more experienced Solidago, making him therefore of obvious interest at 7/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Sir Abbot / Rebekah Rabbit @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : generally)
Sir Abbot / Solidago @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : generally)
Rolling Rocket / Rebekah Rabbit @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Hills)
Rolling Rocket / Solidago @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : Hills, Betfair SB and Paddy Power)

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2015

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2015

Wednesday's Result :

3.15 Lingfield : Kristal Hart @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn on morning of race due to abcess)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

1.10 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Battle Dust @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

Battle Dust appears to be in fine fettle at present, finishing 121 in his last three appearances. He closed off his PTP career with a win over 3 miles on heavy ground when carrying 12 st 2lbs to a 5 lengths victory at Dungarvan in January.

He was next seen as recently as six weeks ago when making his debut under Rules at Southwell, where he stayed on well and finished strongly on soft ground, but the line came too quickly for him, despite it being a 3m slog first up.

The ground was worse for his only other outing, when he needed every inch of the 2m 7.5f on heavy ground at Chepstow 26 days ago to just get home and the manner of both runs suggest the extra 2 furlongs today should be right up his street. He's 1 from 1 with today's jockey and has already demonstrated a firm liking for bottomless ground.

Another step into the unknown today, as he makes a handicap debut, but his trainer Kim Bailey has shown in the past that he can get his 'cappers to win first time up, as since 2008 his NH hcp debutants are 14/105 (13.3% SR) for 30.9pts (+29.4% ROI) profit, and with today's race in focus, those runners are...

  • 13/90 (14.4% SR) for 42.8pts (+47.5% ROI) when rated at 120 or lower
  • 11/83 (13.3% SR) for 36pts (+43.4% ROI) at the ages of 4 to 6
  • 9/90 (11.3% SR) for 31.7pts (+39.6% ROI) over hurdles
  • 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 30.6pts (+55.7% ROI) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 52.1pts (+650.8% ROI) on heavy ground

Kim's 4-6 yo hcp hurdle debutants priced at 8/1 and shorter are 8/32 (25% SR) for 29.4pts (+92% ROI), with all 8 winners coming from the 27 (29.6% SR) runners rated 90-120 with the resultant 34.4pts profit equating to some 127.6% of stakes invested.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.40pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Battle Dust and that's at 9/4 BOG with any one of at least half a dozen firms, so I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 4th November 2015

Double Dutch, 4th November 2015

No surprises to read that yesterday was yet another winner/placer combo!

We got the 1-2 as expected in the opener and the consolation of a 5.7/1 exacta, but our hopes of a 15.5/1 double were dashed by a 5 length defeat at Wolverhampton.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Incurs Four Faults : WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Schottische : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
The Exacta paid £6.70 here.
----------------------------------------------------
Broughtons Berry : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Feeltherhythm : 11th at 6/1 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
715 winning selections from 2566 = 27.86%
226 winning bets in 665 days = 33.98%

Stakes: 1329.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +97.64pts (+7.35% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

These are Wednesday's selected races...

3.10 Warwick :

Net Work Rouge was solid and consistent over timber last season, if not entirely successful, before a couple of lacklustre efforts over the bigger obstacles in May and September of this year. He then returned to hurdles action three weeks ago and whilst you can only beat what you're faced with, he was a winner by 27 lengths, despite being eased right down. Such was his command of the race, the other four finishers that day were 27, 55, 67 and 77 lengths behind him!

Obviously he bears a penalty for that victory, but if coming here in the same frame of mind and running like he did, then the extra weight shouldn't be enough to anchor him here and I think he's a pretty solid pick at around 5/2 BOG to give the in-form Kim Bailey another winner from his only runner of the day.

The one most likely to get close would probably be Dan Emmett by process of elimination. A Plein Temps looks the type to do well, but might need the experience of a debut run under Rules before I'd want to back him, whilst Gorsky Island will probably need the pipe opener after 196 days off the track.

Which brings us back to Dan Emmett, admittedly still a maiden over hurdles after four attempts, but is rated at 120, just like Net Work Rouge and receives 7lbs from the selection here. He has been consistent in defeat over timber and his best run came two hurdle starts ago when second of eight over three miles at Ludlow on the only occasion he has been asked to run further than 2m4f.

He hasn't seen a hurdle for 198 days, but has had the benfit of a run over 2m in a flat handicap at Newbury 12 days ago. 2m is clearly far too sharp for him, but he acquitted himself well enough without being disgraced, although ultimately well beaten, as you'd expect. All things considered, Dan Emmett's current 9/1 BOG price looks very fair indeed and he might well be worth an E/W punt for those that way inclined.

*

7.10 Kempton :

I expect this to boil down to a shootout betweeen two old rivals this evening.

Grendisar and Fire Fighting were the first two home in this contest last season, with the former prevailing by just a neck and he's actually 11lbs better off this time around. Since then, he has finished 211 in three A/W Listed contests, and was only three qqarters of a length away from landing a Group 3 race, when beaten by Tryster, who is 2 from 3 since. If Grendisar can make the swing in weight work to his advantage, then he can retain this race at 15/8 BOG.

Fire Fighting, on the other hand, is as surprisingly long as 9/2 BOG in places and has to be the value call. He may well be much worse off than when losing here last year, but did beat Grendisar by over 6 lengths two starts ago and comes here off the back of a Listed contest at Dundalk last time out, beating some decent sorts by 5 lengths or more.

Fire Fighting clearly brings the best form to the table and this could be a really interesting battle, especially as both Grendisar and Fire Fighting are likely to be held up for a late run, hopefully giving us a cracking finish (a 1-2 would be nice!)

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Net Work Rouge / Grendisar @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Net Work Rouge / Fire Fighting @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : generally)
Dan Emmett / Grendisar @ 27.75/1 (9/1 & 15/8 : Hills)
Dan Emmett / Fire Fighting @ 49/1 (9/1 & 4/1 : Hills)

Double Dutch, 1st October 2015

Double Dutch, 1st October 2015

September was, on the whole, a pretty good month for DD and its followers, making just over 14pts profit, but I didn't half end the month with a stinker.

Buoyed by Tuesday's success, I really thought we'd a good chance of back to back wins, but my confidence was sadly misplaced with the four runners finishing 3rd, 5th, 8th and 11th on a day I'd rather forget happened and move straight on!

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Mr Frankie : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 5/1)
Our Queenie : 5th at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Pacolita : 8th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Top Offer : 11th at 5/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
687 winning selections from 2452 = 28.02%
218 winning bets in 636 days = 34.28%

Stakes: 1271.00pts
Returns: 1385.62pts
P/L : +114.62pts (+9.02% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

New month = clean slate and first up for us are these...

3.15 Warwick :

Badgers Retreat was only beaten by a head here over course and distance last time out, as he stayed on strongly from well off the pace and would have been the winner a couple of strides later. Ifs and buts are all well and good, but it was a strong performance and he's now turned out again just nine days later before a 4lb rise in weight kicks in.

He gets to run off the same mark as last time out and with having had that C&D experience, can be expected to go one better today under a jockey that has a 25% strike rate at the venue (7/28). We're not getting rich if Badgers Retreat wins at 15/8 BOG, but as half of a double, those odds are just about palatable.

The main challenge is expected to come from Jackthejourneyman, who was last seen a month ago winning by four lengths over fences at Huntingdon. He was pretty comfortable in victory that day and it's probably a combination of a 7lb weight rise and a step up in trip that has pushed him out to 5/2 BOG this morning.

James Davies retains the ride from last time and it's worth noting that over the last 5 years, 6 yr old male Class 4 Handicap chasers who won LTO by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days ago are 28/80 (35% SR) for 32.63pts (+40.8% ROI), adding a little more interest to the selection of Jackthejourneyman.

*

7.45 Chelmsford :

Despite a poor day yesterday at Kempton (0/4), the Charlie Appleby/William Buick combination is generally a potent one and remains in good form and in Second Wave, they've got a real chance of getting back to winning ways tonight. The horse was a winner on each of his first two starts (both at Redcar) and has been on the premises to two decent placed finishes since stepping up to this grade taking his career record to 1132, which means he's bringing the best form to the table.

He has a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance and is an interest convert to the A/W after those four runs, as Charlie Appleby's horses switching to A/W for the first time after 5 or fewer turf runs are 32/108 (29.6% SR), of which they are 4 from 9 here at Chelmsford, suggesting a big run from Second Wave at 15/8 BOG tonight.

Pactolus looks to be the most interesting of his challengers here and can be backed at 5/1 BOG in places. He has won two of his last five starts, including a course and distance success last time out. That was under today's jockey on his first run at this track that took his A/W record to 3 from 7.

He beat Monsieur Chevalier by a length that day (9 days ago) and that runner-up turned back out on Tuesday and won at Redcar, so if the form holds out, trainer Stuart Williams could have another winner to improve his 5yr A/W hcp strike rate of 18.23% (76/417), if Pactolus comes here in the same mood as last week.

For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Badgers Retreat / Second Wave @ 6.92/1 (15/8 & 7/4 : Paddy Power)
Badgers Retreat / Pactolus @ 14.84/1 (15/8 & 9/2 : Coral & Paddy Power)
Jackthejourneyman / Second Wave @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Jackthejourneyman / Pactolus @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Betfair SB)

Double Dutch, 22nd September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 22nd September 2015

Not quite enough money to retire on, but Monday provided a nice start to the week with some profits to boot!

A pair of winners at combined advised odds of 8.34/1 hardly breaks the bank, but it does keep the wheel turning at least and also once again reconfirms the need to have access to a wider number of BOG bookies, as the double only paid 6.13/1 and we can't afford to leave money on the table.

Advised odds paid 141% of SP, so there's a chunk of change right here and I should point out that race 2 also generated an Exacta at 6.3/1.

Monday's results were as follows:

Count Montecristo : WON at 11/8 (adv 15/8)
Don Keyhoe Tay : 4th at 3/1 (adv 15/8)
----------------------------------------------------
Power Game : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Si Senor : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
The Exacta paid £7.30 to a £1 stake here.

Results to date:
678 winning selections from 2420 = 28.02%
216 winning bets in 628 days = 34.39%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1255.00pts
Returns: 1363.34pts
P/L : +108.34pts (+8.63% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'll be looking for more joy from...

2.10 Warwick :

Connections of Regulation will be hoping the going doesn't deteriorate too much between now and race time, as a softening of the ground should really be the only thing stopping this horse from winning today, providing he clears every hurdle, of course! He was last seen in this grade two starts ago, when cruising to an 8 length victory under today's rider at Uttoxeter 11 weeks ago.

Since then, he has run well in defeat in a Listed race and also at Class 3 (both at Market Rasen) and the drop back to C4 should make life easier today. Over hurdles, he's 2/3 at this grade (411), 2/4 in races of 8 to 10 runners (4121) and 2 from 3 running after a break of 30 to 60 days (311). As I said earlier, today's jockey has already won with him and at 7/4 BOG, Regulation looks the one to beat.

Canicallyouback should prove to be the biggest danger, despite conceding weight all round today. He also has a good recent win at Uttoxeter under his belt, having won there last time out, making him the only other winner in this field. That run was eight weeks ago and he was a winner by 14 lengths that day without really being pressed.

He had run pretty consistently prior to that maiden win, especially in a couple of narrow defeats over this trip at Ffos Las earlier in the "summer" (I use the word loosely) and with some partial fears about the ground for the favourite, Canicallyouback might prove good value for his generally available 7/2 BOG pricetag today.

*

6.40 Kempton :

Chief Entertainer is an interesting runner switched to the A/W after four starts on turf, the latest being a very good run on handicap debut at Catterick last Tuesday when only beaten by half a length on good to soft ground and I'm assuming connections expect the polytrack to run slightly quicker than that ground last week.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni has been in good form of late (7/35 in the last fortnight), trainer Stuart Williams' Kempton handicappers have a 27.4% strike rate at odds below 4/1 here since 2009 and it is expected that at 2/1 BOG, Chief Entertainer will be the latest.

Canford Belle's recent runner-up finish at Catterick is probably the best piece of form displayed by the rest of the field here, despite going down by 5 lengths that day. In fairness to her, she hit a flat spot mid race and lost some ground, but got a second wind and rallied late on to take second place in the closing stages.

The manner of the way she was staying on that day suggests that a step up to this 6f trip could be the key to getting her into the winners enclosure, for despite being fairly well beaten last time out, she was doing all her best work inside the final furlong. I do prefer Chief Entertainer here, but at odds of around 5/1 BOG, Canford Belle can be neither ruled out nor ignored.

For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Regulation / Chief Entertainer @ 6.88/1 (13/8 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
Regulation / Canford Belle @ 14.75/1 (13/8 & 5/1 : Betfred & Totesport)
Canicallyouback / Chief Entertainer @ 13.38/1 (4/1 & 15/8 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Canicallyouback / Canford Belle @ 29/1 (4/1 & 5/1 : SkyBet)

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Brrrrrrrr, it's bloody chilly here in the SotD chair at the moment and I'm struggling to buy a winner.

No complaints though from me (and thankfully, you guys!), as we all know it's part of the cyclical nature of sticking one's head above the parapet to be shot at on a daily basis!

For the record, Monday's runner, Stardrifter had a stinker. Sent off at our advised 7/2 odds, he dwelt towards the rear of the pack and never really got involved, finishing 8th of 11 around four lengths off the pace.

I'm hoping a change of code and a famous family can bring about a halt to this poor run in the...

4.10 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

There's a possibility that during this recent losing spell, I've tried a bit too hard or been a bit too complicated in an effort to spark a return to form, so today is a back to basics job with the Twiston-Davies's for this Class 3, 3m 1.5f chase on good ground, where 22 yr old Sam rides the 7/2 BOG Belmount for his dad Nigel, making this a notable selection for several reasons.

  1. In Class 3/4 chases of up to 3m2f since the start of 2012, Sam has ridden 76 winners (21.7% SR) from 350 for dad Nigel for a profit of 160.4pts at an ROI of 45.8%.
  2. Nigel's 5 to 10 yr old chasers are 61/248 (24.6% SR) for 109.6pts (+44.2% ROI) in the months of August to October inclusive since the beginning of August 2010. Of those 248 runners, 5/6 yr old males are 25/65 (38.5% SR) for 55.1pts (+84.7% ROI).
  3. Over the last 10 yrs Nigel has an 18.8% strike rate (16/85) in chases here at Warwick with Class 3/4 runners winning 14 of 63 (22.2% SR), those priced at 11/2 or shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) whilst those running at trips of 3m0.5f to 3m2f have won 10 of 28 (35.7% SR).

All of which gives us the belief of a good run from Belmount, a horse who is 1 from 1 here at Warwick, courtesy of a win over hurdles at a similar trip to today (3m2f). He's 1/1 over fences and also 1/1 at Class 3 level. He has won both starts on good ground, has four wins from six when priced at 4/1 or shorter and is 3 from 5 when young Sam is in the saddle.

Taking all those into consideration, 7/2 BOG doesn't look a bad price for Belmount and I've gone with Hills this time, but with seven other firms also matching that price, you really should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Warwick

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 20th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 20th May 2015

Tuesday proved to be a very good day for us with our two longer priced selections both winning to combine for a double at 16.5/1 and with a 4/1 shot beating a warm 11/10 favourite in race 2, there was the added bonus of yet another forecast: this one paying a little over 8/1!

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Another Boy : WON at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Poldark : 4th at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Bang On Time : WON at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Sergeant Dick : 2nd at 11/10 (adv 15/8)
The forecast paid £9.10 to a £1 stake.

Results to date:
579 winning selections from 2017 = 28.71%
182 winning bets in 523 days = 34.80%

Stakes: 1047.50pts
Returns: 1152.53pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +105.03pts (+10.03% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

We'd now like more of the same for Wednesday with these...

4.10 Warwick:

For a 4yr old, Nyanza is already showing great versatility in bringing her obvious ground speed acquired on the Flat to the hurdling sphere, but has also proved she can clear the obstacles! She was third twice on the Flat (1m4f & 1m6f), whilst she won two from three on the A/W and stayed 1m6f on tapeta, before coming hurdling.

She's 1214 over hurdles, having won at C4 on her first attempt and has also won a Listed contest, before running fourth in a Grade 2 event last time out. She was far from disgraced that day and finished 120 lengths ahead of Mick Appleby's Favorite Girl who went on to score next time out. This is a drop in class today and I fancy Nyanza to take this at 9/4 BOG. In fact, I'm surprised she's that long!

There's little form to go off from her four rivals, but the one who interests me is Magic Magnolia, who is currently 5/2 BOG. Still without a win after 9 attempts over hurdles, but was a runner-up in a Listed contest when beaten by just half a length at Wetherby. She hasn't progressed as hoped/expected since then and has now changed hands.

The change of trainer is a positive move for me (no disrespect intended to Mark Gillard), as she's now under the wing of Dan Skelton. Dan has put Harry on board today for this fillies handicap debut and it wouldn't be any surprise if either (or both!) of the yard switch and the introductions to handicaps bring about an improvemant from her. Based on past exploits (often dangerous!), Magic Magnolia looks quite leniently treated here, only conceding 1lb to bottom weight, but receiving 25lbs from Nyanza!

*

6.20 Southwell:

In a little over a year, Pair of Jacks has won three times and made the frame twice from just seven runs and has transferred his obvious hurdling ability to the bigger obstacles with apparent ease. He's now 3U21 over fences, having been hampered into unseating his rider whilst comfortably in third place on his only chasing failure to date.

Pair of Jacks is obviously consistent and the manner in which he ground out a win last time out suggests that today's extended trip will help him progress for a yard and jockey both in excellent form and all concerned will be expecting a win here at 15/8 BOG, especially when you look at his rivals on show today. There does appear to be a lack of quality to the race, but the one I'll put up as an alternative is Dursey Sound.

Dursey Sound is in no worse form than the rest, but does have previous course and distance form. His recent results (11, 7, 6, 7, 21,6) over the past 7 months is uninspiring, but he's running at a higher grade over trips of 3 miles and beyond. We should look further back to last summer/autumn when he was a Class 2 winner and a Listed runner-up at trips more like today's.

I don't think he stays the longer races well enough to land a blow, but he's 4/5 at today's trip, perfers these smaller fields and is 1/1 here at Southwell, and at around 5/1 BOG offers the best alternative to the main selection.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Nyanza / Pair of Jacks @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : Bet365, SkyBet & BetVictor)
Nyanza / Dursey Sound @ 20.13/1 (9/4 & 11/2 : Ladbrokes)
Magic Magnolia / Pair of Jacks @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Magic Magnolia / Dursey Sound @ 28.25/1 (5/2 & 11/2 : Ladbrokes)

Double Dutch, 23rd April 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd April 2015

I was happy to get away with just a 0.25pt loss on a bit of a farcical day yesterday. Two runners, including my fancy Aye Well, were withdrawn from our opening race, leaving it as a 3-runner affair with large Rule 4 deductions. As it was, our sole entrant Cango, who had been advised at 3/1, finished 2nd at a prohibitive 10/11.

The non-runner, though, at least afforded us the protection/insurance of a couple of singles at Fairyhouse and with first pick The Conker Club winning after a drift out to 5/2, we managed a spot of damage limitation. Our final runner Shamar was 3rd at 9/2, but almost 40 lengths back!

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Cango: 2nd at 10/11 (adv 3/1)
Aye Well: non-runner (adv 15/8)
------------------------------------------
The Conker Club: WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Shamar: 6th at 9/2 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
553 winning selections from 1933 = 28.61%
173 winning bets in 501 days = 34.53%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1001.50pts
Returns: 1104.04pts

P/L : +102.54pts (+10.24% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Evening action again on Thursday....

5.10 Warwick:

For a 9yr old, Ballytober doesn't appear to have too many miles on his clock and comes here in decent nick, having finished 223 in his last three outings (all hunter chases and all off today's mark), so we know he can jump and that the trip is fine. He was third last time out (Ludlow 3 weeks ago) and the two horses that beat him that day have both won again since. The faster ground today is no issue either as he won his only ever run on Good to Firm (Worcester, last May) and should be in the shake up today at 5/2 BOG (Betfair Sports).

As should the 11/4 BOG Vincitore who finished a length and a half behind Ballytober last time out (5 weeks ago at Newbury, when they were 2nd & 3rd behind the very useful Twirling Magnet at Newbury). Vincitore has been decent over both hurdles and fences to date (5 wins & 6 places from 24 so far) and now meeting Ballytober 2lbs better off and with the benefit of having had that run (off a break of 303 days!) should be close again.

*

6.55 Bath:

Austin Friars represents Charlie Appleby here and whilst the yard isn't in as blistering form as they were a couple of weeks back, they're still averaging around the 20% strike rate ie more than useful and in Austin Friars, they've an in-form who showed plenty of promise in three fast ground maidens, before returning to finish 212 on the A/W earlier this year.

The return to fast turf should benefit him and although he's up 4lbs for a narrow defeat last time out, the talented Tom Marquand's presence with his 7lb claim means that we're effectively running at the same mark as when winning two starts ago at Lingfield over this same trip and at 5/2 BOG with Coral, I'd probably be all over him, but for the opposition containing Master Zephyr, who can be backed at 9/4 BOG.

Master Zephyr was a winner over 9f at Wolverhampton on his last run / handicap debut and with his breeding suggesting he needs further than that and allied to his trainer's very good record here, he has to be of interest. The runner-up from that Wolverhampton outing has since gone on to win too. He has been well rested, but you can be sure he'll have been working on some firm ground and if ready to fire after 195 days would be my marginal preference.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Ballytober / Master Zephyr @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Ballytober / Austin Friars @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Coral)
Vincitore / Master Zephyr @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4, BetVictor, Coral & Hills)
Vincitore / Austin Friars @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Coral)

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2015

Conditions were ideal for Topaling at Wolverhampton last night and she ran the race to the best of her abilities as far as I could see. She was perhaps a little one paced at the end, but I've no complaints about her finishing third at 3/1.

She was a little over two lengths behind a winner who was too good for her, justifying 11/10 favouritism with the runner-up putting in a career best performance.

These things happen, unfortunately and we just move on to Saturday and the...

4.25 Warwick:

Where I've backed Vesuvhill at 7/2 BOG, as he attempts to land back to back soft ground course and distance wins. He was the winner of a novice handicap hurdle here 4 weeks ago beating a host of higher rated horses in the process and suggesting a return to form after 3 unplaced efforts in his first three hurdles races (07P).

"The return to form"...

Since 2008, handicap hurdlers running within 11 to 30 days of a last time out win, which came after a run of at least consecutive unplaced efforts, went on to win again on 158 of 922 (17.1% SR) times, producing 229.7pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 24.9%.

Those priced in the 2/1 to 10/1 range won 130 of 666 (19.9% SR) for 189.1pts (+28.4% ROI), rising to 74/312 (23.7% SR) for 153.2pts (+49.1% ROI) over the last three years, from which runners at Warwick are 3/6 for 78pts.

That win was over course and distance...

And since 2008, Runners with CD next to their name who also won (anywhere) last time out are 7/25 (28% SR) for 7.15pts (+28.6% ROI) when running at 5/1 or shorter in a handicap race here at Warwick. From this, hurdlers are 4/8 for 9.25pts.

And the win was a novice handicap hurdle...

Handicap hurdlers aged 4 to 9 who carried 10-10 to 11-11 within 11 to 30 days of a novice hurdle win last time out are 110/569 (19.3% SR) for 133.4pts (+23.4% ROI) and with a simple 6/4 to 9/1 odds filter, we can significantly improve the figures to 100/445 (22.5% SR) for 161.2pts at an ROI of 36.2%

And the jockey/trainer stats...

Jockey Kielan Woods has a record of 11/61 (18% SR) for 48.9pts (80.1% ROI) on Ben Case's runners to date, which is a decent return too.

There seems to be a fair bit there to support our selection, whose 10lb rise in weight looks to be at least partially offset by the lack of quality in the field. That soft ground course and distance win last time out might just prove to be the difference here today.

So, for me, it's a 1pt win bet on Vesuvhill at 7/2 BOG and the price is readily available in several places. I've used Coral, because they'll refund me in case he falls, unseats his rider or gets brought down, but as always, you really should...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.25 Warwick

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2015

It's not often that you see a horse putting in its best efforts staying on in a 3m1f chase on heavy ground and trying to win the race from miles off the pace. However, that's how Chavoy ran on Wednesday. He has bags of stamina, but just had too much to do in the closing stages to win.

A mistake 5 from home didn't help either and although he looked full of running at the death, we had to settle for the runner-up berth at 7/2, a half point shorter than advised. 5/5 last week and now 0/3 this week means we need a winner soon to keep things moving, although fellow optimists will say we're actually 6/9 of late. Hopefully we'll be 7/10 after Thursday's...

2.20 Warwick:

And a family affair with Sam Twiston-Davies riding the in-form Bally Braes for his father, Nigel, in this Class 4, 3m2f handicap chase on soft ground with them both having good records here at Warwick.

Father and trainer Nigel...

...has had 28 winners from his 156 runners at this track since 2008 with that 17.95% strike rate yielding 107.7pts profits from level stakes at an ROI of 69% and with today's contest in mind, his record in handicap chases here since 2010 with horses priced in the 2/1 to 11/2 bracket readig 4 winers from 17 (23.5% SR) for 5.7pts (+33.6% ROI)

Son and jockey Sam...

...is 19/110 (17.3% SR) here at Warwick since the start of 2010 and in the last three years in handicap chases here at odds of 2/1 to 15/2, has won 5 of 17 (29.4% SR) for 14.7pts (+86.3% ROI) profit.

And together, they make a good team...

Since the start of 2010, Sam has ridden 267 winners from 1767 rides on his dad's runners. This 15.1% strike is more than respectable, but the level stakes profits of just 4.4pts give an ROI of a mere 0.25%. They're basically wiping their faces, but it's a starting point for further analysis.

In handicap chases, over the last three years, for example, they have won 72 of 486 (14.8% SR) races together, accruing 90pts profit at an ROI of 18.5%, a far more palatable return for SotD purposes!

Bally Braes was a winner last time out...

...and Nigel's male chasers who won last time around have "doubled up" 31 times from 186 attempts (16.7% SR) for 11.3pts (+6.1% ROI) profit and from this baseline stat, we can put today's race into perspective as follows...

Horses running off a mark 4 to 15lbs higher than LTO (9 today) : 25/150 (16.7% SR) for 15pts (+10% ROI)
Horses carrying 10-5 to 10-12 (10-11 here) : 7/41 (17.1% SR) for 31.4pts (+76.5% ROI)
Class 4 races : 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 27.2pts (+62.2% ROI)
Running at same class as LTO : 16/77 (20.8% SR) for 18.6pts (+24.2% ROI)
Up in trip (up 1.5f today) : 17/94 (18.1% SR) for 16pts (+17% ROI)
Ran in the last 25 days (ran 16 days ago) : 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 39.1pts (+43.4% ROI)
Sam T-D in the saddle : 16/93 (17.2% SR) for 20pts (+21.5% ROI)

All the above are profitable angles for Nigel's LTO winners in chases and you can perm them together to your heart's content, but it does dramatically reduce the sample size!

That win LTO was a novice chase...

...and since 2008, horses rated 105 to 115 (Bally Braes is 105!) running in handicap chases on the back of a win in a novice chase last time out, have gone on to win 92 of 375 (24.5% SR) for 46.3pts (+12.3% ROI) profit, which is a nice little angle. We could leave it there, but it wouldn't be be one of my SotD ramblngs if I didn't drill down to refine/improve the numbers, would it?

So, from that 92/375 stat...

...horses with a maximum of 25 total career runs at all codes/disciplines (BB has run 9 times) have a record reading 87/337 (25.8% SR) for 56.8pts (+16.9% ROI).

From which, those running within 45 days of that last run are 76/273 (27.8% SR) for 64.2pts (+23.5% ROI).

And with a simple 15/2 odds cap imposed, we are left with 74/240 (30.8% SR) for 67.5pts (+28.1% ROI) profit. That's three logical simple filters that have increased the strike rate by almost 26% and the ROI by 128.4%! And that's why I run the risk of boring you all with my multi-stat carpet bombing approach!

After a pretty uninspiring 0/6 spell over hurdles, Bally Braes seems to have taken well to chasing. He was second on his chasing bow almost 7 weeks ago at Huntingdon, where he made a couple of jumping errors, including one at the last fence, which might have made the difference between winning and the 1.5 length defeat he suffered. That was over three miles and he was staying on strongly at the end.

Then 16 days, ago he stepped up by half a furlong and tackled soft ground and was a winner by just over three lengths. He had company until 2 out, before staying on strongly again to win, suggesting that today's extra 300 yards or so will suit him. He did make another couple of mistakes last time out, but his jumping did look to have improved and it would be no surprise to see him come on again today.

So, it's Bally Braes for me and it's a 1pt win bet at 17/5 BOG with Betbright with Bet365 the next best at 100/30 BOG . Either of those is more than satisfactory. To see a fuller picture of the market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Warwick

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Sat TV Trends: 10th Jan 2015

As we head further into the New Year the C4 cameras are at Kempton and Warwick this weekend with the Lanzarote Hurdle and the Classic Chase the two feature races at each track.
As always Andy Newton's got all the key trends for the LIVE races here.

Kempton (RUK/C4)

2.10 – williamhill.com Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y CH4

10/11 – Won no more than twice over fences before
10/11 – Officially rated 129 or less
9/11 – Winning distance – 2 3/4 lengths or less
9/11 – Run within the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Aged 9 or younger
8/11 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/11 – Carried 11-6 or less in weight
8/11 – Run over fences at Kempton previously (2 won)
7/11 – Won over at least 2m3f (fences) previously
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Won only 1 or 2 times over fences previously
7/11 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
6/11 – Officially rated between 122-130
5/11 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Favourites
4/11 – Returned a double-figure price
2/11 – Ran at Ludlow last time out
1/11 – Won their last race
1/11 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2007 Idole First RP Plate)

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Carlisle

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Nicky Henderson has a 35% record over fences at the track
Alan King has just a 5% record over fences at the track
Barry Geraghty has a 33% record riding over fences at the track
Wayne Hutchinson is just 1 from 24 over fences at the track

2.40 – William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f CH4

13/13 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
12/13 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Won exactly 2 times over hurdles previously
10/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Never won a hurdles race over this trip or longer previously
9/13 – Irish (5) or French (4) bred
9/13 – Winning distance 2 ¼ lengths or less
8/13 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
8/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Aged 6 years-old
6/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Raced at Kempton before (3 won)
3/13-  Favourites winning
2/13 – Trained by Nick Williams
The average winning SP in the last 7 renewals is 8/1
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (33 runnings) 29 winners have been aged 7 or younger
Note: the 2006 running was a dead heat between Rayshan & Buck Whaley and run at Carlisle

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his hurdlers at the track
Emma Lavelle has a 27% record with her hurdlers at the track
Nick Williams has a 36% record with his hurdlers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 1 from 28 with her hurdlers at the track
Barry Geraghty has a 28% record riding over hurdles at the track

3.15 - William Hill - Bet On The Move Handicap Chase Cl2 3m CH4

Your first 30 days for just £1

Just two previous runnings
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race last season
No winning favourites
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 35% record with this chasers at the course
Trainer Paul Webber has a 26% record with his chasers at the course
Trainer Alan King is just 2 from 40 with his chasers at the course
Trainer Colin Tizzard is just 2 from 31 with his chasers at the course

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Nicky Henderson has a 35% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Webber has a 26% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King has just a 5% record over fences at the track
Colin Tizzard is just 2 from 31 with his chasers at the track
Barry Geraghty has a 33% record riding over fences at the track

 

Warwick (RUK/C4)

1.20 – Betfred Mobile Handicap Chase (For the Edward Courage Cup) Cl3 2m

8/8 – Finished in the top 4 in their last race
8/8 – Won a chase race over 2m (or further)
7/8 – Officially rated between 119-128
7/8 – Carried 10-10 or more weight
6/8 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Favourites placed
5/8 – Raced within the last 2 weeks
5/8 – Aged 7 or younger
5/8 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/8 – Raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/8 – French bred winners
4/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
3/8 – Raced (fences) at Warwick previously
3/8 – Aged 7 years-old
3/8 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewalsis 4/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Venetia Williams has a 24% record with her chasers at the track
Nick Williams has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
Daryl Jacob has a 33% record riding over fences at the track

1.55 - Betfred Mobile Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m110y CH4

No previous runnings

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Trainer Alan King has  33% record with his chasers at the track
Leighton Aspell has a 38% record with his chasers at the track
Richard Johnson has a 31% record riding over fences here

2.25 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f CH4

9/9 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/9 – Won between 1-4 times over hurdles previously
8/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
7/9 – Yet to race over hurdles at Warwick
7/9 – Officially rated between 127-142
7/9 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
7/9 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
6/9 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/9 – Favourites placed
5/9 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
3/9 – Won their last race
2/9 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/9 – Favourites
2/9 – Raced at Bangor last time out
2/9 – Won by Nigel Twiston-Davies
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 8/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Nicky Henderson has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
Alan King has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track

3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Leamington Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f

8/8 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/8 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
8/8 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
7/8 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
7/8 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/8 – Ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
5/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Favourites
5/8 – Favourites placed
5/8 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less4/8 – Aged 5 years-old
4/8 – Won their last race
2/8 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 11/4

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Nicky Henderson has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
Gavin Sheehan has a 56% record riding over hurdles at the track
Harry Skelton is just 1 from 19 riding over hurdles here
Daryl Jacob is just 2 from 27 riding here over hurdles

3.35 – Betfred Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f CH4

9/9 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Won a chase race over at least 3m
7/9 –  Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/9 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or less
6/9 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
6/9 – Irish bred horse
6/9 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
6/9 – Officially rated between 129-140
6/9 – Raced at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
6/9 – Won between 2-5 times over fences previously
5/9 – Ran at Warwick (hurdles, chase NH Flat) previously
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
5/9 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
4/9 – Priced a double-figure price
3/9 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all failed to finish)
2/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Trained by Alan King
2/9 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 9.4/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Alan King has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 40% record with his chasers at the track
Leighton Aspell has a 38% record with his chasers at the track
Daryl Jacob has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
Richard Johnson has a 31% record riding over fences here

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2014

Brownville was tough and gutsy on Wednesday afternoon over at Leicester, staying on well and finding a bit extra when needed to land the spoils on his handicap debut. He made virtually all the running and just as it looked like the favourite might swallow him up, he kicked on again to get home by a length and a half, despite conceding a chunk of weight to the runner-up.

It was a good day for me/SotD for more than just the bare result, too. Firstly we got 4/1 about a 9/4 runner and getting value like that is the cornerstone of our success here: if you can get 178% of SP, you will make money in the long run. Secondly we highlighted the Twiston-Davies father and son combination and hopefully some of you got on the 9/1 winner they had in the race before ours.

We could do with a similar type of battling effort from today's selection who will hopefully win the...

1.00 Warwick:

Where Top Gamble will attempt to make it 2/2 over fences and take his career record to 4 wins from 8.

He's currently a 5/2 BOG shot with Boylesports to achieve this and 9/4 everywhere else. This is towards the lower end of where I like to play for SotD, but there are some fairly compelling (IMO, of course! 😀 ) stats to back up my selection.

Firstly, an overview of the situation. Top Gamble won a novice chase on his first start over fences 26 days ago and now steps up a grade to Class 3 for this handicap event. He runs here off a mark of 135, which is just 2lbs higher than his Class 2 hurdling mark, despite a poor run of form in handicap hurdles where he failed to place in his last three starts (9FF!), but fared considerably on his debut for his new yard last time out after a break of 8 months.

He is now trained by Richard Lee...

...who is marginally/modestly profitable to back blindly in NH contests. In fact, if you'd backed every one of his runners since the start of 2009, your betting record would show 111 winners from 856 bets (13% SR) for 36.2pts profit from a 1pt level stakes (ROI of 4.2%) Both the strike rate and ROI percentages are pretty low for SotD purposes, but do make an excellent base camp. I now want to drill down into those numbers...

So, from the 856 NH runners over the last six years:

In handicaps : 80/632 (12.7% SR) for 45pts (+7.1% ROI)
In handicap chases : 64/457 (14% SR) for 50.6pts (+11.1% ROI)
In Class 3 handicap chases : 24/163 (14.7% SR) for 29.1pts (+17.9% ROI) , which is now far more to my liking.

We can, however, take a further look at the Class 3 handicap chasers and we find that those rated above 128 are 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 40pts (+117.6% ROI), those who won last time out are 6/30 (20% SR) for 5.2pts (+17.2% ROI) and those whose last run was 21 to 75 days ago are 15/101 (14.9% SR) for 23.6pts (+23.3% ROI) profit.

Top Gamble steps up from Class 4 to Class 3 today...

Richard Lee's record with horses stepping up in class in NH handicap races since 2008 is 27 winners from 167 (15.6% SR) runners, producing 75.7pts at an ROI of 45.3% and that's a good enough stat to leave standing alone, but I won't!

Of the 167 stepped up in class, there 18 winners from 118 (15.3% SR) chasers, generating profits of 49.2pts (+41.7% ROI). Class 3 runners were 14/61 (23% SR) for 40.9pts (+67.1% ROI) and those sent off at 12/1 or shorter won 24 of 110 (21.8%SR) races for 92.2pts (+83.8% ROI) profit.

Over the last six years, Richard Lee's chasers moving from Class 4 to Class 3 and priced in the 2/1 to 10/1 odds range are 9/29 (31% SR) for 28pts (+96.7% ROI) profit, with those running at 2/1 to 4/1 winning 6 of 13 (46.2% SR) races for 11.8pts profit at an ROI of 90.6%

As many of you know, I like to look out for horses turned back out fairly quickly after a return to form s trainers seek to strike whilst the iron is hot and...

...Top Gamble is one of my back to form horses...

Over obstacles, this means he won in the last 30 days after a run of at least consecutive unplaced efforts. Since 2008, horses fitting this description and running at 6/5 to 10/1 odds, have won 380 of 1810 (21% SR) follow-up races, generating level stakes profits of 204.1pts (+11.3% ROI) in the process. More interestingly, in the last two years alone, chasers are 58/251 (23.1% SR) for 43.5pts (+17.3% ROI).

His win 26 days ago was in a Novice Chase, his debut over fences...

I'm a copious note taker and I read a while ago about winners of Novice Chases winning handicap chases fairly soon afterwards. I did a bit of digging this evening and it turns out that unexposed (ie less than 10 starts) handicap chasers who are rated at 130 or higher and won a Novice Chase last out within the previous 60 days, went on to win their handicap contest on 22 of 136 occasions (16.2% SR) over the last 4 years. These winners have rewarded backers with a profit of 82.1pts to date at an ROI of 60.4%. I accept that this is a fairly niche angle, but it's certainly pertinent and relevant and is a useful back-up stat.

All I now want to add about Top Gamble is a quick footnote about that chase win and the conditions as they relate to today's contest. It was over today's 2m trip and it was on soft ground (officially Good to Soft / Soft in Places with a forecast for heavy rain), but he also has good form on heavy ground (2 wins and a runner-up from 4 starts), so trip and going won't be his undoing here.

He beat Yorkist by six lengths that day, who in turn stepped up to this Class 3 level to win at Carlisle by nine lengths easing down 11 days ago, whilst Grate Fella was a faller when already beaten by Top Gamble at Wetherby, but has since run and won a chase eight days ago.

The collateral form looks good, the stats are stacking up and if anything, he should come on for having had that run last time out. He isn't too onerously treated by the handicapper and I'm happy to back Top Gamble at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports. 9/4 seems to be the norm elsewhere, as can be seen, when you...

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