Stat of the Day: 31st December 2011
Our last Stat of the Day for 2011, and let's see if we can't go out on a winner, after the frustrating run was extended with a 6/1 second place when the jockey might have won.
Today we’re heading Warwick, and a bit of a longshot in the…
According to Andy Newton's TV trends, this race has been won by a seven to nine year old in each of its six renewals. Moreover, it has been won by a horse placed 1-2-3 last time out in five of those renewals.
Venetia Williams has her string in pretty good form right now, and Samurai Way, a lightly raced nine year, was second on his last start.
That last run was 605 days ago, however. And this is where my other theory kicks in, regarding layoff handicap chasers. If you're a regular reader, you will know that such horses often outperform their market rank due, presumably, to a perception that chasers off a lay off 'need the run'. The stats over time show this is not true.
Whether they'll be justified today remains to be seen, but with a few positives in our corner (as well as a few leaps of faith), I'm happy to have a little each way nibble of Victor Chandler's 11/1.