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Stat of the Day: 31st Dec 2011

Stat of the Day: 31st December 2011

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Our last Stat of the Day for 2011, and let's see if we can't go out on a winner, after the frustrating run was extended with a 6/1 second place when the jockey might have won.

Today we’re heading Warwick, and a bit of a longshot in the…

2.20 Warwick

According to Andy Newton's TV trends, this race has been won by a seven to nine year old in each of its six renewals. Moreover, it has been won by a horse placed 1-2-3 last time out in five of those renewals.

Venetia Williams has her string in pretty good form right now, and Samurai Way, a lightly raced nine year, was second on his last start.

That last run was 605 days ago, however. And this is where my other theory kicks in, regarding layoff handicap chasers. If you're a regular reader, you will know that such horses often outperform their market rank due, presumably, to a perception that chasers off a lay off 'need the run'. The stats over time show this is not true.

Whether they'll be justified today remains to be seen, but with a few positives in our corner (as well as a few leaps of faith), I'm happy to have a little each way nibble of Victor Chandler's 11/1.

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Warwick.

Saturday TV Trends – 31st Dec

Sat TV Trends – 31st Dec

A Nice Card At Newbury This Saturday

As 2011 draws to a close this Saturday, Andy Newton gives you all the trends & stats that matter ahead of the LIVE C4 races at Newbury and Warwick. Read more

End of an era as Swinburn stands down

Walter Swinburn today hands in his trainer’s licence, bringing to an end a family involvement in the sport that has lasted almost 60 years since father Wally rode his first winner, Metalon, at Warwick in 1953. Citing "commercial reasons" as the reason he is handing in his licence, the three-time Derby winning jockey, known as "The Choirboy" throughout his riidng career, hopes to resume training at some point in the future, but can see no prospect of doing so for some time. Read more