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Weekly Stat Pack: 9th to 15th April 2013

Weekly Stat Pack: 2nd to 8th April

Weekly Stat Pack: 2nd to 8th April

Now that the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals are behind us, we can concentrate (mainly) on the level and this week I offer the current standings in the three-year-old handicap sector this calendar year.

This should act as a guide to which trainers have been ‘doing this business’ since the turn of the year, whilst I also offer a comparison to the corresponding figure for the second Tuesday morning of April in 2012.

The final list relates to the same sector in racing as far as the morning of 1st June 2012.  This should act as a guide in general terms relating to early season trainer form.

9--Mark Johnston (9), David Simcock (0)

7--Marco Botti (1)

5--Chris Dwyer (0), Ed Dunlop (1), David Evans (7), James Tate (0)

4--Richard Hannon (2), Ron Harris (0), Robert Mills (0), Jeremy Noseda (0), Jamie Osborne (6), Bryan Smart (1)

Trainers who had saddled a decent number of winners in the three-year-old handicap sector this time last year (this year's figures in brackets):

5--Mick Channon (2)

4--Rae Guest (1)

3--Keith Dalgleish (0), Tom Dascombe (1), Richard Fahey (3), John Gosden (2), Sylvester Kirk (0), Hughie Morrison (0), Ian Williams (0), Ian Wood (0)

 

Number of 3YO Handicap winners by the end of May in 2012, giving you a guide on the progress of trainers throughout the first part of the season.  The number of successful favourites are offered in brackets:

23--Mark Johnston (13)

13--Richard Hannon (2)

11--Mick Channon (3)

10--Richard Fahey (2)

9--Kevin Ryan (2)

7--Michael Bell (4), David Evans (1)

6--Sylvester Kirk (2), Hughie Morrison (3), Jamie Osborne (3)

5--Rae Guest (0), Richard Guest (0), Ian Williams (4) 

Day by day analysis this week: 

This was ‘Easter week’ last year whereby not too many of the meetings correspond with last year’s calendar. 

 

TUESDAY:

Pontefract: 

One third (9 winners/27 races) of the market leaders won during the first four meetings at Pontefract last season, statistics which include joint and co favourites.  22/28 winners (one dead heat) were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.  Tim Easterby (20/1-9/1-10/3--see the comment in the 4.15 event) saddled three winners during the study period, with Elaine Burke (9/1 & 7/4*), James Given (9/2 & 16/1) and Henry Candy (9/2* & 5/2*) all securing two victories.

2.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the seven contests thus far.  Horses carrying weights of 8-10 or less have claimed 12 of the 20 (including winners at 20/1-16/1-11/1-10/1) available toteplacepot positions to date.  Four of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) via seven renewals, statistics which include two winners.

3.10: Five of the six horses to have secured each way positions thus far have carried a maximum burden of 8-11, whilst two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via two renewals.

3.40: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum of 9-2, statistics which support those of you considering the top seven (of the fifteen) runners.  Seven of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners at 5/2 and 2/1 within the last four years.

4.15: Tim Easterby will remember this race from twelve months back as his two (20/1 and 9/1) representatives dead heated in this event.  Both horses were six-year-olds and wouldn’t you just know it, Tim has declared his vintage raider Silvery Moon this time around.  All three favourites had finished in the frame to date (one winner) before last year’s 7/4 market leader finished out with the washing.

4.45: James Tate has scored with four of his last eleven runners and Macaabra might continue the good run on behalf of the stable.  Seven of the fourteen favourites have troubled the judge (five winners) via thirteen renewals.

Carlisle: 

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013

Number of races at Carlisle: 32

Favourite stats: 10 (31.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/5 (40.0%)

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

3--Alan Swinbank (6/1-10/1-11/10*)

2--Tim Easterby (3/1** & 8/1), Brian Ellison (11/4 & 7/2*), Jonjo O'Neill (9/2 & 11/10*), Nicky Richards (1/8* & 10/1), Pauline Robson (Evs* & 5/2)

 

28/32 winners scored at odds of 12/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (One favourite was withdrawn at the start):

3--Donald McCain (4/9-4/6-7/2), Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4), Sue Smith (4/1***-9/2-9/2)

2--Andrew Parker (11/4 & 9/4), Alan Swinbank (5/2 & 6/5)

 

Southwell:

Brian Ellison saddled eleven winners on the flat during April/May last year (5/6 spilt) and the trainer has his team in good order at present.  Brian boasts a 22% strike rate via sixty five winners here at Southwell during the last five years, statistics which have produce ten points of level stake profit.

 

WEDNESDAY: 

Catterick:

One third (9 winners/27 races) of the market leaders won during the first four meetings at Catterick last season, statistics which include joint and co favourites.  Tim Easterby led the way with three winners (11/4*-5/2**-25/1), with Ruth Carr (12/1 & 5/1) and Paul Midgley (22/1 & 16/1) chipping in with a brace apiece during the study period.  Nineteen of the twenty seven winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

2.00: Five renewals had slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded before last year‘s 4/1 market leader obliged. Nine of the last ten winners have scored at 8/1 or less.  Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12 to victory.

3.20: David Nicholls has saddled three winners via just six renewals to date, with Rio Cobolo representing the yard on this occasion.  That said, the last four winners have all carried 9-1 or more.

3.50: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last contests, whilst three clear market leaders have scored during the last decade alongside one joint favourite.  The last six winners have been returned at 15/2 or less.

4.20: This is the second division of the 3.20 contest, with David Nicholls set to be represented by Mujaadel on this occasion.  Three of the five runners saddled by Michael Dods at Newcastle on Saturday won (1520/1 treble) and the trainer in next represented on Wednesday here at Catterick and at Nottingham.

4.50: Four successive favourites (of one description or another) had won (including three five-year-olds) before last year’s 25/1 gold medallist rocked the boat.  Brian Ellison (Knightly Escapade & Royal Opera) and Alan Swinbank (Anna’s Arch) have both saddled two winners of this event within the last eight years.

 

Nottingham:

Mick Channon led the way via the first four meetings at Nottingham last year by saddling three (7/4-10/3-10/3**) winners.  Paul Midgley (3/1* & 11/1) and Willaim Muir (7/2* & 9/2) saddled two winners during the study period.  Eight of the twenty seven races were won by market leaders, with twenty two gold medallists sent off at odds of 9/1 or less.

2.40: Just one (13/8) favourite has obliged via the last eight renewals of this handicap event, with three winners returned in double figures at 33/1-14/1-14/1.  Six of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.

3.10: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests with the biggest priced winner being returned at 9/1 during the period.

3.40: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals during which time, four-year-olds have scored four times.  Nicky Henderson creates a ‘double first’ here as the trainer has not saddled a runner here at Nottingham since the old king died, whilst Andrea Atzeni takes his first ride for the Seven Barrows stable.

4.10: The last seven favourites have all been beaten whilst the last five gold medallists were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-1.

5.10: The three winners to date have scored at 14/1-10/1-7/1, all three winners having carried 8-13 or less.

 

Kempton: 

Ralph Beckett has his team in fine each way form at present and with the trainer boasting a 22% strike rate at the track (alongside an LSP figure of sixty six points), Ralph’s runners demand close attention at the Sunbury circuit.

 

Lingfield: 

Plenty of claiming jockeys rack up early winners via their allowance but Robert Tart’s 25% strike rate here at Lingfield suggests we are witnessing the emergence of a rare talent.

 

THURSDAY: 

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ludlow: 42

Favourite stats: 16 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/8 (50.0%)

Trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013 (stats include one dead eight):

5--Venetia Williams (2/1*-9/1-7/2*-13/2-9/2*)

3--Nicky Henderson (4/5*-7/2-7/4), Richard Lee (4/1*-10/3-11/10*)

2--Paul Nicholls (11/2 & 7/4*), Philip Rowley (5/2* & 16/1), Tom Symonds (2/1* & 17/2), Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1 & 5/6*)

 

36/43 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Venetia Williams (11/4-15/8-11/8-3/1-7/2)

3--Nicky Henderson (6/4-10/11-9/4), Evan Williams (10/3-4/1**-10/11)

2--John Ferguson (5/4 & 2/7), Donald McCain (4/1** & 3/1), Paul Nicholls (5/2 & 11/4)

 

Wincanton: 

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wincanton: 45

Favourite stats: 15 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/9 (55.5%)

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

6--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1-Evs*-2/1)

3--Harry Fry (3/1-16/1-5/4*), Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*), David Pipe (5/6*-10/1-4/1**), Colin Tizzard (4/1-11/4**-9/1)

2--Seamus Mullins (3/1 & 10/3), Jeremy Scott (25/1 & 7/1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4* & 12/1)

 

 

40/45 winners started at 10/1 or less.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

8--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8-9/4-4/9-11/8)

6--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**-9/4)

4--Colin Tizzard (5/2**-7/2**-7/2-4/1)

3--Philip Hobbs (Evs-11/10-7/4)

2--Karen George (4/1** & 6/4)

2--Nicky Henderson (6/5 & 2/5)

 

Novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date which favourites come to the gig on a five timer.

 

Fontwell: 

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fontwell: 21

Favourite stats: 8 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/5 (60.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:

2--Evan Williams (10/1 & 1/2*), Venetia Williams (1/5* & 10/11*)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

20/21 winners to date started at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Charlie Longsdon (11/8-13/8-7/2)

2--Kevin Bishop (9/2** & 13/8), Paul Nicholls (5/6 & 7/4)

 

Kempton: 

Four of Rod Millman’s last nine runners have won (9/1-9/1-9/2-7/2) alongside two placed horses (one of which was a 16/1 chance--the other was beaten by a head) and Rod’s LSP reading of thirty one points here at Kempton makes for interesting reading when the trainer is in such fine form.

 

FRIDAY: 

Wetherby: 

WETHERBY NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Wetherby: 35

Favourite stats: 18 (51.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Wetherby in 2013:

4--Sue Smith (5/1-4/1***-9/2-5/4*)

3--Brian Ellison (7/1-8/13*-11/4), Donald McCain (5/2-13/8*-2/1*)

2--Caroline Bailey (6/1 & 85/40*), Tim Easterby (3/1 & 9/4*), Anthony Honeyball (8/1 & 13/8**), David Pipe (2/1 & 12/5*), John Wade (2/1* & 7/2)

 

34/35 winners sent off at 8/1 or less to date

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Donald McCain (3/1**-13/8-5/2), David Pipe (11/8-10/11*-8/13*)

2--Tom George (9/4 & 11/4), Malcolm Jefferson (15/8 & 11/4)

 

Chepstow: 

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Chepstow: 43

Favourite stats: 15 (34.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/9 (44.4%)

 

Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

3--Colin Tizzard (9/2-4/1-11/4*)

2--Vic Dartnall (9/2 & 7/2), Mark Gillard (9/4* twice), Martin Keighley (7/2 twice), Sophie Leech (25/1 & 7/2), Donald McCain (1/7* & 5/2), Seamus Mullins (28/1 & 7/2), Paul Nicholls (10/11* & 4/5*), David Pipe (5/1** & 5/1**), Jeremy Scott (6/4** & 4/1), Michael Scudamore (10/1 & 20/1), Mark Sheppard (6/4* & 11/2)

 

36/43 winners scored at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Paul Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4-8/11-4/5)

2--Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4), Bernard Llewellyn (9/4 & 3/1), Jonjo O'Neill (5/1** & 6/4), David Pipe (5/2 & 5/2), Colin Tizzard (5/1 ** & 2/1), Venetia Williams (10/11 & 5/6)

 

Lingfield: 

John Ryan’s runners are going well at this early stage of the season and two of his six entries this week were on this card at Lingfield where John boasts an LSP reading of thirteen points via the same number of winners during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton: 

Ted Durcan continues to struggle to find rides despite his LSP reading of forty points at Dunstall Park.  Ted was already booked to ride Spirit Of Parkes at this meeting at the time of writing for Eric Alston, a trainer who saddled early season winners more often than not.

 

SATURDAY: 

DONCASTER: 

DONCASTER (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Doncaster: 16

Favourite stats: 6 (37.5%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio:1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:

4/20--Richard Fahey (14/1-11/2-7/2-4/1**)

1/1--Ismail Mohammed (8/1**)

1/1--Bill Turner (5/1)

1/2--Pat Eddery (4/1)

1/2--Brain Ellison (9/2*)

1/2--Richard Hannon (6/1)

1/2--Jim Goldie (15/8*)

1/2--Mark Johnston (7/4*)

1/3--Tony Carroll (8/1)

1/5--Charlie Hills (5/6*)

1/6--John Quinn (20/1)

1/7--Mick Easterby (16/1)

1/7--Scott Dixon (14/1)

 

12/16 winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten trainers:

3--John Gosden (2/1-13/2-2/1)

2--John Quinn (2/1 & 6/1)

 

Class 2 six furlong handicap due to be contested at 3.30: Four and five-y7ear-olds have (equally) shared the eight renewals to date during which time, two 5/1 favourites have scored alongside winners returned at 66/1-40/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-6/1.

Class 4 handicap over ten and a half furlongs scheduled for 4.05:  Seven of the eleven each way/toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying nine stones or more, statistics which include three (6/1-3/1-7/4*) of the four winners.  The other gold medallist (carrying 8-6) was returned at 12/1.

 

Stratford: 

Nigel Twiston-Davies leads the potentially represented trainers at the course with twenty three winners during the last five years, gold medallists which have amassed forty points of level stake profit for Nigel during the period.

 

Uttoxeter: 

UTTOXETER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Uttoxeter: 14

Favourite stats: 6 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Uttoxeter in 2013:

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (85/40 & 9/4*)

 

11/14 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Donald McCain (3/1 & 2/1)

 

Kempton: 

James Fanshawe was due to have his first runners out since January on Saturday at the time of writing, with Miss Dashwood being his only potential runner at this meeting, Villoresi having been booked in at Doncaster.  James boasts a 24% strike rate (via thirty nine winners in recent years) at the Sunbury circuit which is backed up by an LSP reading of seventy points.

Juvenile event scheduled for 1.35: Richard Hannon (9/4* & 7/2**) and David Evans (12/1 twice) have both saddled two winners during the seven renewals to date.   Richard held four entries earlier in the week against David’s lone entry. Two clear market leaders have won alongside Richard’s success joint favourite in 2010.

Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 7-2 via the last nine renewals of the Listed ‘Snowdrop’ event due to be contested at 3.15.  Seven of the last eight winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less during which time, three market leaders prevailed.

Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the seven renewals of the London Mile Qualifier (handicap) on the card which is scheduled for 3.50.  The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.

Queen’s Prize (5.00): Four-year-olds have won five contests during the last decade during which time, four favourites have obliged.

 

SUNDAY: 

Ffos Las: 

Anothony Honeyball held sixteen entries between Thursday and Sunday this week, three of which were on this card at a venue where the trainer boasts a ratio of 5/12.  Anthony’s 36% strike rate has yielded fourteen points of level stake profits. 

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 42

Favourite stats: 15 (35.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/6 (33.3%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

6--Rebecca Curtis (11/2-4/1-16/1-7/2-4/1-11/10*)

5--Evan Williams (7/1-7/2-9/4-20/1-5/2)

3--David Pipe (3/1-2/1-2/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2 & 3/1), Nigel Twiston Davies (5/4* & 4/1)

 

39/42 winners were sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

6--Rebecca Curtis (11/4-4/9-10/11-7/4-7/4-2/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (11/8 & 5/2), Evan Williams (7/2 & 9/4)

 

Market Rasen: 

Of Nicky Henderson’s twenty one potential runners this week (up to and including Sunday), just one was earmarked for Market Rasen at a venue where Nicky has recorded a 41% strike rate via sixteen winners during the last five years.  Thirteen points of level stake profit has been realised during the period and the relevant horse on this occasion is Tiller Belle, who was due to contest the 5.10 event (Mares Bumper) at the time of writing.  

MARKET RASEN NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Market Rasen: 21

Favourite stats: 9 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/6

 

Trainers of winners at Market Rasen in 2013:

2--Charlie Longsdon (6/1 & 7/2)

 

15/21 winners were returned at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Charlie Longsdon (9/4** & 1/6), David O'Meara (2/1 * 9/4**), Jonjo O'Neill (7/2** & 11/4)

 

MONDAY: 

Newcastle: 

It’s worth noting that Michael Dods was one of the few trainers to saddle a couple of winners during the first four meetings at Newcastle last year and sure enough, Michael landed a 1520/1 treble at Newcastle on Grand National day! 

NEWCASTLE (FLAT) DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newcastle: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

 

Trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

3/5--Michael Dods (25/1-12/1-7/2**)

1/2--Tony Coyle (10/1)

1/2--Brian Ellison (4/1)

1/2--Richard Fahey (8/1)

1/2--Alan Swinbank (5/2**)

 

Five of the seven winners to date were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Kevin Ryan (8/13 & 7/2**)

 

Redcar: 

REDCAR DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Redcar: 7

Favourite stats: 2 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Redcar in 2013 (includes one dead heat):

1/1--Ron Barr (15/2)

1/1--David Nicholls (7/4*)

1/1--Richard Fahey (7/2)

1/2--David Barron (11/4**)

1/2--Jim Goldie (2/1)

1/2--John Quinn (7/2)

1/4--Richard Guest (15/2)

1/4--Paul Midgley (9/1)

 

All eight winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

 

Windsor:

Only four favourites obliged via the first four meetings (twenty eight races) at Windsor last season, albeit twenty one winners scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

Thirteen of the twenty eight winners emerged from just five stables, namely Andrew Balding (7/2*-2/1-5/2), Sir Michael Stoute (12/1-5/1-11/4), Richard Hannon (7/1-13/2-6/1), Ralph Beckett (15/2 & 9/2) and Jim Boyle (33/1 & 6/1).

Richard Hannon saddled six of the first ten two-year-old winners at the track, whilst the first twelve juvenile winners at Windsor last year were returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

Throughout the entire season at the alternative royal venue, thirteen favourites obliged via twenty seven juvenile contests, eleven of which were won by horses saddled by Richard Hannon via thirty five representatives.  That said, Richard saddled six beaten favourites in this sector of the sport, whilst William Haggas suffered reversals at odds of 5/4 and 6/5.

Only two juvenile races were contested where the front three horses in the market all finished out of the frame, whilst 18/27 winners emerged from the relevant trio in the betting.

Of the first twenty two-year-old winners during the course of the season, only one gold medallist went on to score ‘next time out’.

Well I Declare : 18th March 2013

Well I Declare: 18th March

Well I Declare: 18th March

Mondays are generally low key affairs and today is no exception. We do, however, still have three meetings taking place (covering both NH and A/W) on...
...MONDAY 18/03:

Southwell (NH):

SOUTHWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Southwell: 14

Favourite stats: 5 (35.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Southwell in 2013:

2--Keith Reveley (3/1 & 11/8*)

1--Caroline Bailey (13/8*)

1--Jennie Candlish (9/2)

1--Robin Dickin (12/1)

1--P.W. Flynn (6/1)

1--Tom George (15/8**)

1--Ed De Giles (7/1)

1--Steve Gollings (1/2*)

1--Warren Greatrex (7/2)

1--Paul Nicholls (5/4*)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/2)

1--David Pipe (4/1)

1--Peter Pritchard (12/1)

12/14 winners to date were returned at odds of 7/1 or less, the other gold medallists being sent off at 12/1.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Tony Caroll (4/1 & 5/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (15/8 & 9/4)

1--Warren Greatrex (6/5)

1--Alan King (5/1**)

1--Graeme McPherson (4/6)

1--Oliver Sherwood (4/5)

1--Mike Sowersby (7/2)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4)

1--Lucy Wadham (15/8**)

All seven favourites finished in the frame (exact science) at last year’s corresponding fixture when the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1 (three successful favourites on the card at 6/4-11/8-5/4).

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Market leaders boast a 34% strike rate in three-year-old handicap events at Lingfield in recent times, four ‘spots’ better than equivalent events for older horses at the venue.

 

Kempton:

Although no successful market leaders were recorded, a top priced winner of 11/1 emerged during last year’s relevant meeting.  Successful trainers: Phil McEntee (9/1), Peter Chapple-Hyam (4/1), Peter Hiatt (11/1), Kevin Morgan (3/1), Tom Keddy (13/2), Chris Gordon (11/1) and John Weymes (10/1).

Beaten favourites on the card were saddled by Andrew Balding (9/4 & 11/8), John Best (5/4), Willie Musson (15/8), Mark Johnston (4/1), Robin Dickin (11/4) and Julia Fielden (11/4).

Well I Declare : 17th March 2013

Well I Declare: 17th March

Well I Declare: 17th March

Carlisle and Lingfield host today's UK racing, here's a brief overview on what to expect for...
...SUNDAY 17/03:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Carlisle: 12

Favourite stats: 3 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

1--Neil Alexander (9/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (12/1)

1--Tony Coyle (13/2)

1--Brian Ellison (11/4)

1--Chris Grant (5/2)

1--Philip Kirby (22/1)

1--Barry Murtagh (11/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--Dianne Sayer (16/1)

1--Nicky Richards (1/8*)

1--Tim Vaughan (8/11*)

1--Venetia Williams (15/8*)

9/12 winners scored at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)

1--George Charlton (3/1**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1***)

1--Tom Gretton (7/2)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (9/4)

1--Charlie Longsdon (Evs)

1--Donald McCain (4/9)

1--Noel Kelly (4/9)

1--John Norton (4/1***)

1--Sue Smith (4/1***)

Lucinda Russell took the training honours at last year’s corresponding meeting when securing a 13/2 double (2/1* & 6/4).  Other winners on the day were saddled by George Bewley (11/10*), Brian Ellison (7/2*), Venetia Williams (4/5*) and Mark Hughes (Evens*).  The bookmakers went home with their collective tails between their legs!

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Favourites boast a 48% record in three-year-old non handicap races at Lingfield during the last five years.

Well I Declare : 16th March 2013

Well I Declare: 16th March

Well I Declare: 16th March

Some of you might be needing a bit of a rest after four exhilarating days of top-class racing from Cheltenham, bu tfor those of us still needing their Saturday racing fix, here's the detail of the action scheduled for...


...SATURDAY 16/03:

Ffos Las:

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 14

Favourite stats: 3 (21.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

3--Rebecca Curtis (11/2-4/1-16/1)

2--Evan Williams (7/1 & 7/2)

1--Kim Bailey (4/1)

1--S.L. Bevan (5/1)

1--Tom George (3/1**)

1--Nicky Henderson (4/9*)

1--B. Llewellyn (66/1)

1--Neil Mullholland (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--David Pipe (3/1)

1--Nick Williams (4/1)

12/14 winners were sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/6)

1--Michael Blake (9/4)

1--Peter Bowen (11/4**)

1--Keiran Burke (7/2)

1--Rebecca Curtis (11/4)

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1--Jackie Du Plessis (9/4)

1--David Evans (3/1**)

1--John Flint (5/4)

1--Sue Gardner (7/2)

1--Debra Hamer (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/8)

1--Charlie Longsdon (5/4)

1--Paul Nicholls (4/6*)

1--Michael Scudamore (11/4**)

 

Kempton:

Latest stats from the ‘ton up riders club’ at Kempton during the last five years: Jim Crowley: 127/863--Luke Morris: 119/966--Adam Kirby: 107/732

 

Lingfield:

Joe Fanning remains the jockey to keep an eye on when riding down south at Lingfield, Joe having ridden seventy-eight winners which have amassed the same number of points regarding Joe’s level stake profits at the venue in recent times.

 

Uttoxeter:

UTTOXETER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Uttoxeter: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Uttoxeter in 2013:

1--Dai Burchell (16/1)

1--Tony Carroll (12/1)

1--Rebecca Curtis (Evs*)

1--Linda Siddall (16/1)

1--Harry Whittington (Evs*)

1--Evan Williams (15/8*)

1--Nick Williams (11/4)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/2)

1--Henry Day (4/1)

1--Anthony Middleton (7/2)

1--Tom Symonds (5/4)

Nine of the last ten winners of the Midlands Grand National (scheduled to be contested at 3.20) have carried weights of 10-9 or less.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the study period.

Three mile novice handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last ten contests.  Seven renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was registered.

 

Wolverhampton:

Favourites in non handicap events at Dunstall Park accounted for 43% of victories in non handicap events during the last five years, the ratio dropping to just 31% in races in which the handicapper had written the terms and conditions of the relevant races.

Well I Declare : 15th March 2013

Well I Declare: 15th March

Well I Declare: 15th March

It's the grand finale of this year's Cheltenham Festival today and there's aslo action at Fakenham, Lingfield and Wolverhampton on...


...FRIDAY 15/03:

Cheltenham Day 4:

1.30--Triumph Hurdle: Four of the last fourteen favourites have obliged which not a bad record considering the competitive nature of this opening event.  Nine market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.  Irish trainers have not lifted this prize since 2002, with Philip Hobbs (2/10), Paul Nicholls (2/14), Alan King (2/20) and Nicky Henderson (2/13) all having trained two winners during the study period.

2.05--County hurdle: Although backed up by only six placed representatives in the last thirteen contests, five-year-olds have won this competitive event no less than eight times during the period.  Forty of the last fifty winners hailed from the five and six-year-old vintages which should sway you towards younger horses in the contest.  Horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-1 have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals.

2.40--’Albert Bartlett’: Favourites have won three of the eight renewals whilst market leaders have secured seven toteplacepot positions.  Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 4-3 to date.  Previous course winners account for half of the winners to date whilst the fill scoreboard reads: Britain: 5--Ireland: 2--France: 1.

3.20--Cheltenham Gold Cup: Six of the last ten market leaders have won the ‘Blue Riband’ with Kauto Star being a beaten favourite on two occasions.  Eight of the ten favourites finished in the frame.  Bobs Worth has won all six of his races when racing left-handed thus far, whilst his record at Cheltenham is 4/4.  The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to only have one outing during the season before the big race was Garrison Savannah back in 1991 who like Bobs Worth, had won the RSA Chase the previous season.  At the odds on offer at the time of writing (3/1), Bob’s Worth rates as my bet of the week.  Only the progressive Silviniaco Conti emerges as a danger from my viewpoint.

4.00--Foxhunters Chase: Three market leaders have won via the last fourteen contests, the figure increasing to seven during the period when taking the first three horses in the betting into account.  Four of the last seven winners have scored at 33/1 (twice) and 20/1 (twice).

4.40--’Martin Pipe’ Conditional: Two of the four favourites have finished in the money to date (one winner).  David Pipe has saddled two beaten favourites in the race which he is desperate to win for obvious reasons.

5.15--’Grand Annual’: Every winner during the last eleven years carried a maximum burden of 10-13, whilst eight gold medallists carried 10-7 or less.  Novices have a great record in the ‘Johnny Henderson’, whilst horses with decent each way form leading up to the race can be expected to figure prominently.  Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, whilst Nicky Henderson’s runners always demand respect in a race run in honour of his late father.  Nicky’s novice Tetlami would be my each way selection if the trainer chooses this race for his seven-year-old.

 

Fakenham:

FAKENHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fakenham: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

Trainers of winners at Fakenham in 2013:

1--Mick Channon (10/11*)

1--Sean Curran (11/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1--Nicky Henderson (2/5*)

1--Paul Henderson (7/1)

1--Alan Hill (9/4*)

1--Lawney Hill (2/1)

1--Neil King (3/1)

1--Anabel K. Murphy (3/1)

1--David Pipe (10/1)

1--Renee Robeson (11/2)

1--Oliver Sherwood (15/2)

1--Tim Vaughan (6/5*)

1--Lucy Wadham (9/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Alex Hales (6/4 & 11/8)

1--Mick Channon (2/1)

1--Ed Dunlop (2/1**)

1--John Ferguson (2/1**)

1--Polly Gundry (15/8)

1--Renee Robeson (11/8)

1--Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1--David Thompson (11/10)

1--Venetia Williams (7/4)

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35 over the minimum trip: Six-year-olds have won four of the last six (and six of the last eleven) contests.  Four favourites have obliged in the last ten years.

Foxhunters event due to be contested at 4.15: Five favourites have prevailed via the last ten contests, nine winners of which started at 9/2 or less.  Nine-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 4.55: The biggest priced winner in this event via the last ten contests before last year’s 33/1 shocker was returned at just 4/1, statistics which included four successful market leaders during the last six years.  Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals.

 

Lingfield:

The next potential William Jarvis runner is Laudation on this card, the trainer having saddled two gold and one silver medallist via his last three representatives.  Williams boasts an LSP reading of twenty-four points at Lingfield via an 18% strike rate during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

John Gosden held a couple of entries at Wolverhampton this week at the time of writing, with the trainer offering a 27% ratio in recent times.

Well I Declare : 14th March 2013

Well I Declare: 14th March

Well I Declare: 14th March

So, we're already at the midway point of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival, but there's another day of top-class action scheduled today. We've all the details of those races alongside the meetings planned for Hexham, Towcester and Wolverhampton on...


...THURSDAY 14/03:

Cheltenham Day 3:

1.30--’Jewson’ Novice Chase: An exceptionally ‘good NH judge’ expects a first-rate showing from Third Intention in this event, though as expressed on Sunday evening, ‘Joe’ was less than happy at the decision for Dynaste to contest this event rather than the RSA which had seemingly been the target not so long so.  Colin Tizzard’s raider should still reward each way investors with a decent run for their collective monies however.

2.05--‘Pertemps Final’: The last nine favourites have been beaten with just one market leader finishing in the frame.  Going back further in time, only one favourite has prevailed during the last sixteen years, whilst seven of the last nine gold medallists carried weights of 10-9 or less as have twenty-six of the thirty-six horses to have secured toteplacepot/each way positions during the period.  Only one five-year-old winner has been recorded in the last thirty-eight years.  Cape Tribulation was the third eight-year-old winner twelve months ago via the last six renewals.  David Pipe has saddled two of the last three winners, albeit Buena Vista won both events.

2.40--Ryanair Chase: Albertas Run has two gold and one silver medal to his name in this race though the ground (best on a sound surface) might have gone against him this time around.  Only two favourites have prevailed via eight contests though that said, seven of the winners scored at odds of 6/1 or less. Twenty four Irish raiders have tried and failed to win this contest.  Nicky Henderson (responsible for both successful favourites), Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls all have two winners to their name, the other successful trainers being David Pipe and Nigel Twiston-Davies.

3.20--World Hurdle: Eight favourites have won via the last eighteen contests during which time, thirteen gold medallists emerged from the front three horses in the betting.  The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at 8/1.  Get Me Out Of Here has finished runner-up in all three Cheltenham Festival assignments thus far.  Beaten a head in the ‘Supreme’ in 2010, GMOOH fell victim to a minimum margin defeat (nose) twelve months later (County Hurdle) before securing the silver medal again in the ultra competitive Coral Cup last year.  If any horses deserves to score at the Cheltenham Festival this year, Get Me Out Of Here is the beast!

4.00--Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate:  Last year’s successful market leader was only the second favourite to oblige during the last twenty-nine years.  Although eight-year-olds have ‘only’ won four of the last fourteen renewals, vintage representatives have secured twenty-three of the last forty-three available toteplacepot/each way positions.  Horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-10 have won eight of the last ten renewals.

4.40--’Kim Muir’ Chase: Nine-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen contests whilst claiming twenty-one of the last available forty-eight toteplacepot/each way positions.  Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been secured by horses carrying 10-13 or more, as have thirty-four of the last forty-seven available toteplacepot positions.  Ferdy Murphy’s Cheltenham record with his outsiders stands up almost as well as any other trainer, especially if you take the Nicky Henderson out of the equation.  Riguez Dancer could go well at rewarding odds, whilst other stable representatives this week to keep on a back burner include Going Wrong, De Boitron and Poker Di Sivola

 

Hexham:

Class 4 novice hurdle event due to be contested at 2.55: Three of the five market leaders have prevailed (5/6-5/6-10/11), the other market leaders having secured silver medals.  Six-year-olds have won three contests whilst all five winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Just one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, horses carrying weights of 11-2 or less have secured eight contests.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last ten contests have been secured by market leaders, with seven-year-olds leading the eight-year-olds 5-3 during the period.  Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: The last eight winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones, whilst just one favourite has obliged during the last decade.

 

Towcester:

TOWCESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Towcester: 13

Favourite stats: 6 (46.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Odds on ratio: 4/4

 

Trainers of winners at Towcester in 2013:

2--Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 8/13*)

2--David Pipe (7/4* & 1/2*)

1--Kevin Bishop (11/2)

1--David Bridgwater (11/2)

1--Tony Carroll (9/1)

1--Claire Dyson (5/1)

1--Caroline Keevil (9/2)

1--Donald McCain (4/5*)

1--Jamie Snowdon (7/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1--Venetia Williams (3/1*)

All thirteen winners sent off at a top price of 9/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kate Buckett (3/1)

1--Sarah Jane Davies (5/2)

1--Robin Duickin (9/4)

1--John Ferguson (15/8)

1--Sophie Leech (9/4)

1--Michael Roberts (11/4)

1--Richard Woolacott (11/4)

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Six-year-olds have secured five of the seven contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 (four successful market leaders).

Three mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.30: Three clear and two joint favourites have prevailed via seven renewals.

Class 4 two-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst four of the last five favourites secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one winner.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 5.35: The last five winners have scored at 16/1--14/1--12/1--15/2--7/2 following the successful inaugural (5/4) market leader back in 2004.

 

Wolverhampton:

Gerard Butler’s only two entries this week at the time of writing were at this venue, where Gerard boasts fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 24% strike rate in recent years.

Well I Declare : 13th March 2013

Well I Declare: 13th March

Well I Declare: 13th March

Today is Day 2 of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival and we've full details of today's races from Prestbury Park, as well as the action scheduled for Huntingdon, Kempton and Southwell on...

...WEDNESDAY 13/03:

Cheltenham Day 2:

1.30--4 mile NH Chase: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests whilst just three favourites have prevailed in the last eighteen years.  Horses in the first three in the betting have a poor record in the race.  Fifty four relevant horses have lined up during the study period producing six winners and ten place positions, leaving thirty-eight representatives finishing out with the washing.

2.05--2 mile 5 furlong Grade 1 ‘Baring Bingham (Neptune)’: Five and six-year-olds have secured sixteen of the last eighteen renewals of this event, securing an additional thirty-one toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having secured four of the last six renewals.  Six favourites have won during the period though the figure only extends to nine when taking the first three market leaders into account.

2.40--RSA Chase: Seven-year-olds rule supreme in the ‘Sun Alliance’ having won thirteen of the last eighteen contests.  Vintage representative has secured an additional sixteen toteplacepot positions down the years for good measure.  Only five favourites have won during the study period and just eight when extending the stats by taking the first three horses in the betting into account in the relevant races.  Irish runners have won three of the last four contests, whilst Willie Mullins has trained two winners and two placed horses during the last decade via fifteen representatives.

3.20--Queen Mother Champion Chase: Ten of the last thirteen winners of the ‘Queen Mother’ have emerged from the front three horses in the betting, whilst five favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals.  If you fancy taking Sprinter Scare on, it’s worth noting that nine-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer. To pour further fuel on the potential flames, Sprinter Sacre is attempting to become only the fourth seven-year-old winner since 1970, the last relevant gold medallist being Azertyuiop back in 2004.

4.00--Coral Cup: Ten of the last twelve winners of the Coral Cup have carried weights of eleven stones or less whilst just one favourite has scored since 1993.  Only four winners have emerged during the period from the front three horses in the market during the study period.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals.

4.40--’Fred Winter’: Two favourites have won via just eight renewals, though readers should be aware that other gold medallists have prevailed at odds of 40/1-40/1-20/1-14/1-11/1-9/1.  Seven of the eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4, whilst fillies have secured half of the contests thus far.

5.15--’Championship Bumper’: Five-year-olds have secured six renewals during the last decade.  The market used to be a decent guide but it is as well to digest the fact that seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite was successful, recent winners having scored at 40/1-33/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-11/2-9/2.  Willie Mullins has saddled seven of Ireland’s fourteen winners in race which only has twenty renewals to its name.

 

Huntingdon:

HUNTINGDON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Huntingdon: 28

Favourite stats: 8 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

 

Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

6--N. Henderson (4/9*-4/7*-11/10*-11/10*-3/1-15/8)

2--Kim Bailey (8/1 & 7/1)

2--Henry Daly (10/1 & 9/1)

2--Paul Nicholls (4/5* & 4/9*)

2--Richard Phillips (8/1 & 16/1)

2--Oliver Sherwood (7/2 & 11/2)

1--David Arbuthnot (6/1)

1--Caroline Bailey (6/1)

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1--Chris Down (25/1)

1--Warren Greatrex (5/1)

1--Diana Grissell (5/2*)

1--Martin Keighley (6/1)

1--Gary Moore (12/1)

1--John O'Neill (22/1)

1--A.E. Price (5/1)

1--T. Symonds (8/1)

1--Venetia Williams (9/2)

1--P. York (11/8*)

24/28 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Philip Hobbs (5/2-4/1-11/4)

3--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1-10/3-7/2)

3--Venetia Williams (11/4-5/2-7/2)

1--Roger Curtis (9/2)

1--Vic Dartnall (9/2)

1--John Ferguson (4/5)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Lawney Hill (7/2)

1--Brendan Powell (9/2**)

1--Jeremy Scott (9/2**)

1--Oliver Sherwood (3/1**)

1--Pam Sly (7/2)

1--Colin Tizzard (4/1)

1--Bill Turner (13/8)

1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)

1--Lucy Wadham (4/1**)

1--Nick Williams (4/1**)

Three mile handicap chase scheduled to be contested at 2.55: Just one clear and one co favourite has scored via eight renewals.  Other gold medallists were sent off at 25/1--20/1--16/1--10/1--8/1--7/2.  Four of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  It’s worth noting that the toteplacepot pools for the other meetings during Cheltenham Festival week also take a hike if you are interested in the wager.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35: Six-year-olds have secured three of the five contests.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst the same number of gold medallists started at odds of 7/1 or less (two winning favourites).

Four-year-olds come into the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.30) on a five timer.  Five favourites have scored during the last decade albeit, gold medallists have also prevailed at odds of 100/1 & 22/1.

 

Kempton:

Jockey John Fahy boasts an LSP figure of over sixty points at Kempton which should come as no great surprise to readers, given that 26% of John’s (119) winners during the last five years have been gained at this venue.

 

Southwell:

It would be typical of David Nicholls to saddle winners when the majority of punters were ‘looking the other way’ this week and his one hundred and sixty points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years merits plenty of consideration.

Well I Declare: 12th to 18th March 2013

Well I Declare: 12th to 18th March

Well I Declare: 12th to 18th March

Cheltenham Festival week witnesses the arrival of an additional day of coverage (next Monday) whereby the service will incorporate the whole week for here on in.

I should direct you towards a new bet which will be introduced by Tote Direct at Cheltenham on Tuesday, a wager which will be featured on all four days of the meeting, namely the SuperScoop6.

The really unusual feature of the wager is the build up to a “massive shootout” in November when clients who pick all six winners on any given day will qualify for the chance to win a monumental sum of money!

The bet will be available at all the Festival meetings throughout the year, though Tote Direct will not be offering the bet on a Saturday when the traditional form of the bet will remain in place.

Now onto the action, starting of course with...

TUESDAY 12/03 :

Cheltenham Day 1:

1.30--‘Supreme Novices‘:  Just three of the last nineteen favourites (seventeen year period) have won.  ‘First three in the betting’ trends are almost as disappointing as their last fifty-five representatives have secured eight victories and an additional fifteen places.  Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 7-6 during the study period.

2.05--‘Arkle’: Only seven of the last seventeen favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include just three successful favourites.  Overturn bids to become only the second nine-year-old to win this event since Sir Ken back in 1956.  The last nine-year-old winner was Danish Flight back in 1988.  Seven-year-olds (Simonsig is among their number this time around) have won seven of the last seventeen renewals via 41% of the total number of runners.

2.40--Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 3 miles:  Just one favourite has obliged via twenty-one representatives during the last seventeen years during which time, seven gold medallists have emerged via the front three horses in the betting.  Thirteen of the last fourteen winners carried 10-12 or less.

3.20--Champion Hurdle: Hurricane Fly bids to become the first horse to regain his crown since Comedy Of Errors back in 1975 whereby Zarkandar is preferred on this occasion, the Paul Nicholls raider having shown both speed and stamina in his make up to date.  Six and seven-year-olds have won twelve contests between them during the last seventeen years, notwithstanding an additional eighteen horses to have finished in the frame.  Hurricane Fly would be only the second nine-year-old winner in the last seventeen years, with only three of their twenty-three representatives having finished in the frame during the period.  Two five-year-olds line up but Katchit (2005) is the only junior representative to have won this event since See You Then won the first of his three successive victories back in 1985.  Home trained horses and Irish raiders have shared the last ten renewals between them.

4.00--Cross Country: The unique cross-country event was the first race to be added to the fixture in order to create a fourth day of the meeting back in 2005. The race has been won by an Irish trainer seven times, whilst favourites have won two of the eight contests to date (six of the other seven market leaders finished out of the frame).  Seven of the eight winners emerged from the front three in the betting.

4.40--‘David Nicholson Mares’: Quevega is fast becoming the queen of Prestbury Park and but for Big Buck’s hogging the limelight in recent years, the eight-year-old mare would have been the star of several shows, having won this race in each of the last four years.

5.15--Listed Novice Handicap Chase: Seven-year-olds have won six of the eight contests thus far during which time, two (132 & 9/2) favourites have prevailed.

 

Sedgefield:

SEDGEFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Sedgefield: 21

Favourite stats: 7 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Sedgefield in 2013:

2--S. Crawford (7/2* & 9/2)

2--Malcolm Jefferson (7/2 & 5/1)

2--William Kinsey (15/8* & 11/4)

1--P. Atkinson (9/1)

1--Rose Dobbin (16/1)

1--Mick Easterby (2/1)

1--James Ewart (7/4*)

1--Joanne Foster (3/1)

1--Steve Gollings (9/2)

1--Warren Greatrex (9/4*)

1--Ann Hamilton (8/1)

1--Phil Kirby (5/2*)

1--Donald McCain (4/6*)

1--M. Mullineaux (17/2)

1--Barry Murtagh (7/1)

1--Alan Swinbank (10/1)

1--John Wade (2/1*)

1--Tracy Waggott (25/1)

19/21 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Donald McCain (5/4-5/2-15/8)

2--Phil Kirby (5/2 & 11/10)

2--Neil Mulholland (7/4 & 8/13)

1--Brian Ellison (6/4)

1--John Ferguson (11/10)

1--Steve Gollings (5/2)

1--Richard Lee (6/5)

1--Ferdy Murphy (5/2)

1--Alan Swinbank (13/8)

1--Tim Walford (11/4)

 

Southwell:

With Cheltenham dominating our thoughts this week, it would be as well to consider David Barron’s potential three runners at Southwell (his last representative won at 4/1 at the time of writing) where David boasts a 25% strike rate during the last five years, an impressive ratio which is backed up by ninety-two points of level stake profits.

 

Wolverhampton:

Considering he has ridden well over two hundred horses at Dunstall Park during the study period, Nicky Macksy’s LSP reading of twenty right points makes for impressive reading.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WEDNESDAY 13/03:

Cheltenham Day 2:

1.30--4 mile NH Chase: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests whilst just three favourites have prevailed in the last eighteen years.  Horses in the first three in the betting have a poor record in the race.  Fifty four relevant horses have lined up during the study period producing six winners and ten place positions, leaving thirty-eight representatives finishing out with the washing.

2.05--2 mile 5 furlong Grade 1 ‘Baring Bingham (Neptune)’: Five and six-year-olds have secured sixteen of the last eighteen renewals of this event, securing an additional thirty-one toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having secured four of the last six renewals.  Six favourites have won during the period though the figure only extends to nine when taking the first three market leaders into account.

2.40--RSA Chase: Seven-year-olds rule supreme in the ‘Sun Alliance’ having won thirteen of the last eighteen contests.  Vintage representative has secured an additional sixteen toteplacepot positions down the years for good measure.  Only five favourites have won during the study period and just eight when extending the stats by taking the first three horses in the betting into account in the relevant races.  Irish runners have won three of the last four contests, whilst Willie Mullins has trained two winners and two placed horses during the last decade via fifteen representatives.

3.20--Queen Mother Champion Chase: Ten of the last thirteen winners of the ‘Queen Mother’ have emerged from the front three horses in the betting, whilst five favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals.  If you fancy taking Sprinter Scare on, it’s worth noting that nine-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer. To pour further fuel on the potential flames, Sprinter Sacre is attempting to become only the fourth seven-year-old winner since 1970, the last relevant gold medallist being Azertyuiop back in 2004.

4.00--Coral Cup: Ten of the last twelve winners of the Coral Cup have carried weights of eleven stones or less whilst just one favourite has scored since 1993.  Only four winners have emerged during the period from the front three horses in the market during the study period.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals.

4.40--’Fred Winter’: Two favourites have won via just eight renewals, though readers should be aware that other gold medallists have prevailed at odds of 40/1-40/1-20/1-14/1-11/1-9/1.  Seven of the eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4, whilst fillies have secured half of the contests thus far.

5.15--’Championship Bumper’: Five-year-olds have secured six renewals during the last decade.  The market used to be a decent guide but it is as well to digest the fact that seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite was successful, recent winners having scored at 40/1-33/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-11/2-9/2.  Willie Mullins has saddled seven of Ireland’s fourteen winners in race which only has twenty renewals to its name.

 

Huntingdon:

HUNTINGDON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Huntingdon: 28

Favourite stats: 8 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

 

Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

6--N. Henderson (4/9*-4/7*-11/10*-11/10*-3/1-15/8)

2--Kim Bailey (8/1 & 7/1)

2--Henry Daly (10/1 & 9/1)

2--Paul Nicholls (4/5* & 4/9*)

2--Richard Phillips (8/1 & 16/1)

2--Oliver Sherwood (7/2 & 11/2)

1--David Arbuthnot (6/1)

1--Caroline Bailey (6/1)

1--Chris Down (25/1)

1--Warren Greatrex (5/1)

1--Diana Grissell (5/2*)

1--Martin Keighley (6/1)

1--Gary Moore (12/1)

1--John O'Neill (22/1)

1--A.E. Price (5/1)

1--T. Symonds (8/1)

1--Venetia Williams (9/2)

1--P. York (11/8*)

24/28 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Philip Hobbs (5/2-4/1-11/4)

3--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1-10/3-7/2)

3--Venetia Williams (11/4-5/2-7/2)

1--Roger Curtis (9/2)

1--Vic Dartnall (9/2)

1--John Ferguson (4/5)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Lawney Hill (7/2)

1--Brendan Powell (9/2**)

1--Jeremy Scott (9/2**)

1--Oliver Sherwood (3/1**)

1--Pam Sly (7/2)

1--Colin Tizzard (4/1)

1--Bill Turner (13/8)

1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)

1--Lucy Wadham (4/1**)

1--Nick Williams (4/1**)

Three mile handicap chase scheduled to be contested at 2.55: Just one clear and one co favourite has scored via eight renewals.  Other gold medallists were sent off at 25/1--20/1--16/1--10/1--8/1--7/2.  Four of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  It’s worth noting that the toteplacepot pools for the other meetings during Cheltenham Festival week also take a hike if you are interested in the wager.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35: Six-year-olds have secured three of the five contests.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst the same number of gold medallists started at odds of 7/1 or less (two winning favourites).

Four-year-olds come into the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.30) on a five timer.  Five favourites have scored during the last decade albeit, gold medallists have also prevailed at odds of 100/1 & 22/1.

 

Kempton:

Jockey John Fahy boasts an LSP figure of over sixty points at Kempton which should come as no great surprise to readers, given that 26% of John’s (119) winners during the last five years have been gained at this venue.

 

Southwell:

It would be typical of David Nicholls to saddle winners when the majority of punters were ‘looking the other way’ this week and his one hundred and sixty points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years merits plenty of consideration.

 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THURSDAY 14/03:

Cheltenham Day 3:

1.30--’Jewson’ Novice Chase: An exceptionally ‘good NH judge’ expects a first-rate showing from Third Intention in this event, though as expressed on Sunday evening, ‘Joe’ was less than happy at the decision for Dynaste to contest this event rather than the RSA which had seemingly been the target not so long so.  Colin Tizzard’s raider should still reward each way investors with a decent run for their collective monies however.

2.05--‘Pertemps Final’: The last nine favourites have been beaten with just one market leader finishing in the frame.  Going back further in time, only one favourite has prevailed during the last sixteen years, whilst seven of the last nine gold medallists carried weights of 10-9 or less as have twenty-six of the thirty-six horses to have secured toteplacepot/each way positions during the period.  Only one five-year-old winner has been recorded in the last thirty-eight years.  Cape Tribulation was the third eight-year-old winner twelve months ago via the last six renewals.  David Pipe has saddled two of the last three winners, albeit Buena Vista won both events.

2.40--Ryanair Chase: Albertas Run has two gold and one silver medal to his name in this race though the ground (best on a sound surface) might have gone against him this time around.  Only two favourites have prevailed via eight contests though that said, seven of the winners scored at odds of 6/1 or less. Twenty four Irish raiders have tried and failed to win this contest.  Nicky Henderson (responsible for both successful favourites), Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls all have two winners to their name, the other successful trainers being David Pipe and Nigel Twiston-Davies.

3.20--World Hurdle: Eight favourites have won via the last eighteen contests during which time, thirteen gold medallists emerged from the front three horses in the betting.  The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at 8/1.  Get Me Out Of Here has finished runner-up in all three Cheltenham Festival assignments thus far.  Beaten a head in the ‘Supreme’ in 2010, GMOOH fell victim to a minimum margin defeat (nose) twelve months later (County Hurdle) before securing the silver medal again in the ultra competitive Coral Cup last year.  If any horses deserves to score at the Cheltenham Festival this year, Get Me Out Of Here is the beast!

4.00--Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate:  Last year’s successful market leader was only the second favourite to oblige during the last twenty-nine years.  Although eight-year-olds have ‘only’ won four of the last fourteen renewals, vintage representatives have secured twenty-three of the last forty-three available toteplacepot/each way positions.  Horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-10 have won eight of the last ten renewals.

4.40--’Kim Muir’ Chase: Nine-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen contests whilst claiming twenty-one of the last available forty-eight toteplacepot/each way positions.  Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been secured by horses carrying 10-13 or more, as have thirty-four of the last forty-seven available toteplacepot positions.  Ferdy Murphy’s Cheltenham record with his outsiders stands up almost as well as any other trainer, especially if you take the Nicky Henderson out of the equation.  Riguez Dancer could go well at rewarding odds, whilst other stable representatives this week to keep on a back burner include Going Wrong, De Boitron and Poker Di Sivola

 

Hexham:

Class 4 novice hurdle event due to be contested at 2.55: Three of the five market leaders have prevailed (5/6-5/6-10/11), the other market leaders having secured silver medals.  Six-year-olds have won three contests whilst all five winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Just one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, horses carrying weights of 11-2 or less have secured eight contests.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last ten contests have been secured by market leaders, with seven-year-olds leading the eight-year-olds 5-3 during the period.  Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: The last eight winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones, whilst just one favourite has obliged during the last decade.

 

Towcester:

TOWCESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Towcester: 13

Favourite stats: 6 (46.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/4

 

Trainers of winners at Towcester in 2013:

2--Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 8/13*)

2--David Pipe (7/4* & 1/2*)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1--Kevin Bishop (11/2)

1--David Bridgwater (11/2)

1--Tony Carroll (9/1)

1--Claire Dyson (5/1)

1--Caroline Keevil (9/2)

1--Donald McCain (4/5*)

1--Jamie Snowdon (7/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1--Venetia Williams (3/1*)

All thirteen winners sent off at a top price of 9/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kate Buckett (3/1)

1--Sarah Jane Davies (5/2)

1--Robin Duickin (9/4)

1--John Ferguson (15/8)

1--Sophie Leech (9/4)

1--Michael Roberts (11/4)

1--Richard Woolacott (11/4)

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Six-year-olds have secured five of the seven contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 (four successful market leaders).

Three mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.30: Three clear and two joint favourites have prevailed via seven renewals.

Class 4 two-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst four of the last five favourites secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one winner.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 5.35: The last five winners have scored at 16/1--14/1--12/1--15/2--7/2 following the successful inaugural (5/4) market leader back in 2004.

 

Wolverhampton:

Gerard Butler’s only two entries this week at the time of writing were at this venue, where Gerard boasts fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 24% strike rate in recent years.

 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

FRIDAY 15/03:

Cheltenham Day 4:

1.30--Triumph Hurdle: Four of the last fourteen favourites have obliged which not a bad record considering the competitive nature of this opening event.  Nine market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.  Irish trainers have not lifted this prize since 2002, with Philip Hobbs (2/10), Paul Nicholls (2/14), Alan King (2/20) and Nicky Henderson (2/13) all having trained two winners during the study period.

2.05--County hurdle: Although backed up by only six placed representatives in the last thirteen contests, five-year-olds have won this competitive event no less than eight times during the period.  Forty of the last fifty winners hailed from the five and six-year-old vintages which should sway you towards younger horses in the contest.  Horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-1 have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals.

2.40--’Albert Bartlett’: Favourites have won three of the eight renewals whilst market leaders have secured seven toteplacepot positions.  Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 4-3 to date.  Previous course winners account for half of the winners to date whilst the fill scoreboard reads: Britain: 5--Ireland: 2--France: 1.

3.20--Cheltenham Gold Cup: Six of the last ten market leaders have won the ‘Blue Riband’ with Kauto Star being a beaten favourite on two occasions.  Eight of the ten favourites finished in the frame.  Bobs Worth has won all six of his races when racing left-handed thus far, whilst his record at Cheltenham is 4/4.  The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to only have one outing during the season before the big race was Garrison Savannah back in 1991 who like Bobs Worth, had won the RSA Chase the previous season.  At the odds on offer at the time of writing (3/1), Bob’s Worth rates as my bet of the week.  Only the progressive Silviniaco Conti emerges as a danger from my viewpoint.

4.00--Foxhunters Chase: Three market leaders have won via the last fourteen contests, the figure increasing to seven during the period when taking the first three horses in the betting into account.  Four of the last seven winners have scored at 33/1 (twice) and 20/1 (twice).

4.40--’Martin Pipe’ Conditional: Two of the four favourites have finished in the money to date (one winner).  David Pipe has saddled two beaten favourites in the race which he is desperate to win for obvious reasons.

5.15--’Grand Annual’: Every winner during the last eleven years carried a maximum burden of 10-13, whilst eight gold medallists carried 10-7 or less.  Novices have a great record in the ‘Johnny Henderson’, whilst horses with decent each way form leading up to the race can be expected to figure prominently.  Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, whilst Nicky Henderson’s runners always demand respect in a race run in honour of his late father.  Nicky’s novice Tetlami would be my each way selection if the trainer chooses this race for his seven-year-old.

 

Fakenham:

FAKENHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fakenham: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

Trainers of winners at Fakenham in 2013:

1--Mick Channon (10/11*)

1--Sean Curran (11/1)

1--Nicky Henderson (2/5*)

1--Paul Henderson (7/1)

1--Alan Hill (9/4*)

1--Lawney Hill (2/1)

1--Neil King (3/1)

1--Anabel K. Murphy (3/1)

1--David Pipe (10/1)

1--Renee Robeson (11/2)

1--Oliver Sherwood (15/2)

1--Tim Vaughan (6/5*)

1--Lucy Wadham (9/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Alex Hales (6/4 & 11/8)

1--Mick Channon (2/1)

1--Ed Dunlop (2/1**)

1--John Ferguson (2/1**)

1--Polly Gundry (15/8)

1--Renee Robeson (11/8)

1--Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1--David Thompson (11/10)

1--Venetia Williams (7/4)

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35 over the minimum trip: Six-year-olds have won four of the last six (and six of the last eleven) contests.  Four favourites have obliged in the last ten years.

Foxhunters event due to be contested at 4.15: Five favourites have prevailed via the last ten contests, nine winners of which started at 9/2 or less.  Nine-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 4.55: The biggest priced winner in this event via the last ten contests before last year’s 33/1 shocker was returned at just 4/1, statistics which included four successful market leaders during the last six years.  Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals.

 

Lingfield:

The next potential William Jarvis runner is Laudation on this card, the trainer having saddled two gold and one silver medallist via his last three representatives.  Williams boasts an LSP reading of twenty-four points at Lingfield via an 18% strike rate during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

John Gosden held a couple of entries at Wolverhampton this week at the time of writing, with the trainer offering a 27% ratio in recent times.

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SATURDAY 16/03:

Ffos Las:

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 14

Favourite stats: 3 (21.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

3--Rebecca Curtis (11/2-4/1-16/1)

2--Evan Williams (7/1 & 7/2)

1--Kim Bailey (4/1)

1--S.L. Bevan (5/1)

1--Tom George (3/1**)

1--Nicky Henderson (4/9*)

1--B. Llewellyn (66/1)

1--Neil Mullholland (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--David Pipe (3/1)

1--Nick Williams (4/1)

12/14 winners were sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/6)

1--Michael Blake (9/4)

1--Peter Bowen (11/4**)

1--Keiran Burke (7/2)

1--Rebecca Curtis (11/4)

1--Jackie Du Plessis (9/4)

1--David Evans (3/1**)

1--John Flint (5/4)

1--Sue Gardner (7/2)

1--Debra Hamer (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/8)

1--Charlie Longsdon (5/4)

1--Paul Nicholls (4/6*)

1--Michael Scudamore (11/4**)

 

Kempton:

Latest stats from the ‘ton up riders club’ at Kempton during the last five years: Jim Crowley: 127/863--Luke Morris: 119/966--Adam Kirby: 107/732

 

Lingfield:

Joe Fanning remains the jockey to keep an eye on when riding down south at Lingfield, Joe having ridden seventy-eight winners which have amassed the same number of points regarding Joe’s level stake profits at the venue in recent times.

 

Uttoxeter:

UTTOXETER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Uttoxeter: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Uttoxeter in 2013:

1--Dai Burchell (16/1)

1--Tony Carroll (12/1)

1--Rebecca Curtis (Evs*)

1--Linda Siddall (16/1)

1--Harry Whittington (Evs*)

1--Evan Williams (15/8*)

1--Nick Williams (11/4)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/2)

1--Henry Day (4/1)

1--Anthony Middleton (7/2)

1--Tom Symonds (5/4)

Nine of the last ten winners of the Midlands Grand National (scheduled to be contested at 3.20) have carried weights of 10-9 or less.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the study period.

Three mile novice handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last ten contests.  Seven renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was registered.

 

Wolverhampton:

Favourites in non handicap events at Dunstall Park accounted for 43% of victories in non handicap events during the last five years, the ratio dropping to just 31% in races in which the handicapper had written the terms and conditions of the relevant races.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SUNDAY 17/03:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Carlisle: 12

Favourite stats: 3 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

1--Neil Alexander (9/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (12/1)

1--Tony Coyle (13/2)

1--Brian Ellison (11/4)

1--Chris Grant (5/2)

1--Philip Kirby (22/1)

1--Barry Murtagh (11/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--Dianne Sayer (16/1)

1--Nicky Richards (1/8*)

1--Tim Vaughan (8/11*)

1--Venetia Williams (15/8*)

9/12 winners scored at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)

1--George Charlton (3/1**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1***)

1--Tom Gretton (7/2)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (9/4)

1--Charlie Longsdon (Evs)

1--Donald McCain (4/9)

1--Noel Kelly (4/9)

1--John Norton (4/1***)

1--Sue Smith (4/1***)

Lucinda Russell took the training honours at last year’s corresponding meeting when securing a 13/2 double (2/1* & 6/4).  Other winners on the day were saddled by George Bewley (11/10*), Brian Ellison (7/2*), Venetia Williams (4/5*) and Mark Hughes (Evens*).  The bookmakers went home with their collective tails between their legs!

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Favourites boast a 48% record in three-year-old non handicap races at Lingfield during the last five years.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MONDAY 18/03:

Southwell (NH):

SOUTHWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Southwell: 14

Favourite stats: 5 (35.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Southwell in 2013:

2--Keith Reveley (3/1 & 11/8*)

1--Caroline Bailey (13/8*)

1--Jennie Candlish (9/2)

1--Robin Dickin (12/1)

1--P.W. Flynn (6/1)

1--Tom George (15/8**)

1--Ed De Giles (7/1)

1--Steve Gollings (1/2*)

1--Warren Greatrex (7/2)

1--Paul Nicholls (5/4*)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/2)

1--David Pipe (4/1)

1--Peter Pritchard (12/1)

12/14 winners to date were returned at odds of 7/1 or less, the other gold medallists being sent off at 12/1.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Tony Caroll (4/1 & 5/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (15/8 & 9/4)

1--Warren Greatrex (6/5)

1--Alan King (5/1**)

1--Graeme McPherson (4/6)

1--Oliver Sherwood (4/5)

1--Mike Sowersby (7/2)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4)

1--Lucy Wadham (15/8**)

All seven favourites finished in the frame (exact science) at last year’s corresponding fixture when the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1 (three successful favourites on the card at 6/4-11/8-5/4).

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Market leaders boast a 34% strike rate in three-year-old handicap events at Lingfield in recent times, four ‘spots’ better than equivalent events for older horses at the venue.

 

Kempton:

Although no successful market leaders were recorded, a top priced winner of 11/1 emerged during last year’s relevant meeting.  Successful trainers: Phil McEntee (9/1), Peter Chapple-Hyam (4/1), Peter Hiatt (11/1), Kevin Morgan (3/1), Tom Keddy (13/2), Chris Gordon (11/1) and John Weymes (10/1).

Beaten favourites on the card were saddled by Andrew Balding (9/4 & 11/8), John Best (5/4), Willie Musson (15/8), Mark Johnston (4/1), Robin Dickin (11/4) and Julia Fielden (11/4).

Well I Declare : 8th March 2013

Well I Declare: 8th March

Well I Declare: 8th March

FRIDAY 08/03:

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ayr: 35

Favourite stats: 17 (48.6% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 6/10 (60.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:

8–Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1)

7–Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**-8/13*-2/9*)

3–Jim Goldie (12/1-6/1-10/1)

3–J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1)

2–Nick Alexander (11/4 & 5/1)

2–Nicky Richards (6/4* & 9/2)

2–D. Whillans (11/4* & 13/2)

1–Maurice Barnes (11/4)

1–S. Crawford (10/1)

1–Tim Easterby (4/6*)

1–James Ewart (11/10*)

1–Phil Kirby (5/1)

1–Ferdy Murphy (16/1)

1–David Pipe (9/4**)

1–Dianne Sayer (3/1)

32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4–Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**-11/10)

4–David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8-6/5)

2–Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)

1–Maurice Barnes (9/4**)

1–G. Bewley (6/4)

1–S. Coltherd (9/4)

1–S. Crawford (10/11)

1–Rose Dobbin (9/4)

1–I. Jardine (10/11*)

1–J.J. Lambe (9/2)

1–Barry Murtagh (15/8)

1–Nicky Richards (15/8)

1–Alan Swinbank (9/4**)

1–A.C. Whillans (7/5)

 

Leicester:

LEICESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 19

Favourite stats: 11 (57.9%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/6

 

Trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:

Your first 30 days for just £1

3–Tom George (7/1-1/4*-13/8*)

3–Venetia Williams (2/1*-3/1*-2/1**)

2–John Ferguson (6/5* & 8/11*)

2–David Pipe (10/11* & 15/8*)

1–Roger Curtis (16/1)

1–Henry Daly (7/4*)

1–Richard Guest (5/1)

1–Philip Hobbs (10/11*)

1–Miss Kayley Jones (9/2)

1–Charlie Longsdon (14/1)

1–Anthony Middleton (5/2)

1–Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1–Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/4)

17/19 winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–David Pipe (15/8 & 10/3**)

1–David Arbuthnot (3/1)

1–Michael Blake (2/1)

1–Philip Hobbs (2/1**)

1–Alan King (10/11)

1–Donald McCain (10/3**)

1–Mrs C. Robinson (10/11)

1–Oliver Sherwood (9/4)

1–Andy Turnell (4/1)

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sandown: 20

Favourite stats: 6 (30.0%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/6 (16.7%)

 

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

3–Nicky Henderson (7/4-11/10*-9/4*)

2–Gary Moore (20/1 & 5/1)

2–David Pipe (11/4 & 4/7*)

2–Venetia Williams (5/1 & 7/2)

1–Mrs F. J. Browne (2/1)

1–Vic Dartnell (14/1)

1–Philip Hobbs (11/10*)

1–Sophie Leech (7/1)

1–Charlie Mann (12/1)

1–Richard Mitchell (7/1)

1–Anna Newton Smith (16/1)

1–Paul Nicholls (7/4*)

1–Jonjo O’Neill (9/4)

1–Jeremy Scott (7/2)

1–Evan Williams (Evs*)

16/20 winners sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4–Nicky Henderson (5/2-4/7-5/2-5/2)

2–Paul Nicholls (1/3 & 2/5)

1–Mrs Jenny Gordon (15/8)

1–Warren Greatrex (15/8)

1–Emma Lavelle (10/11)

1–Andrew Martin (7/2**)

1–Gary Moore (7/2**)

1–David Pipe (3/1)

1–Jeremy Scott (10/3)

1–Nick Williams (11/4)

1–Venetia Williams (5/6)

Amateur riders’ handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner via nine renewals during the last decade was returned at 13/2.  Four successful favourites have been recorded in the process.

Class 3 Handicap Chase over the minimum trip due to be contested at 2.50.  Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick as do six-year-olds.  Five of the last six winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-2.

Grand Military Gold Cup scheduled for 3.25: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals during which time, nine winners have scored at odds of 13/2 or less. Paul Nicholls had Merrion Square involved at the five day stage, the trainer having won three of the last eight renewals.

Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over two and three quarter miles scheduled for 4.00: Charlie Longsdon has saddled two 14/1 winners during the last week and the trainer comes into this event on a hat trick, with Greenlaw being his only potential raider earlier at the time of writing.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 5.10: Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last ten winners during which time, four favourites obliged.

 

Wolverhampton:

Last year’s Northern-based rising sensation Shirley Teasdale has ridden more winners at Wolverhampton than at any other venue, producing a level stake profit of sixty four points into the bargain.

 

Well I Declare: 7th March 2013

Well I Declare: 7th March

Well I Declare: 7th March

THURSDAY 07/03:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Carlisle: 12

Favourite stats: 3 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

1--Neil Alexander (9/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (12/1)

1--Tony Coyle (13/2)

1--Brian Ellison (11/4)

1--Chris Grant (5/2)

1--Philip Kirby (22/1)

1--Barry Murtagh (11/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--Dianne Sayer (16/1)

1--Nicky Richards (1/8*)

1--Tim Vaughan (8/11*)

1--Venetia Williams (15/8*)

9/12 winners scored at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)

1--George Charlton (3/1**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1***)

1--Tom Gretton (7/2)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (9/4)

1--Charlie Longsdon (Evs)

1--Donald McCain (4/9)

1--Noel Kelly (4/9)

1--John Norton (4/1***)

1--Sue Smith (4/1***)

 

‘Hands and Heels’ event scheduled for 2.10: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 whilst just one (11/4) market leader has prevailed thus far.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have won six of the last seven contests during which time, two market leaders have obliged alongside two joint favourites.  All eight winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 3.45: Sue Smith has won three of the last five races in which she was represented and the trainer‘s only option earlier in the week was Camden George.  Only two favourites have scored via nine renewals, with the other winners ranging in odds between 7/2 and 25/1.  Three of the last four winners were returned at 25/1--12/1--12/1.

Class 4 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests whilst two favourites have won via nine renewals.  Six of the last eight winners carried a minimum burden of 10-13.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion, vintage representatives have secured six of the eight renewals to date.  Just two favourites have won during the last six years during which time, the other winners scored at 50/1--40/1--13/2--6/1.

 

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Wincanton: 31

Favourite stats: 11 (35.5%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5 (80.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

6--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1-Evs*-2/1)

3--Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*)

3--David Pipe (5/6*-10/1-4/1**)

2--Colin Tizzard (4/1 & 11/4**)

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4* & 12/1)

1--Bob Buckler (10/3)

1--R.B. Chanin (6/1)

1--Harry Fry (3/1)

1--Nick Lampard (9/2)

1--Michael Miller (16/1)

1--Neil Mulholland (7/2)

1--Seamus Mullins (3/1)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (1/5*)

1--Brendan Powell (14/1)

1--Richard Price (10/1)

1--Andy Turnell (2/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1--Nick Williams (11/2)

1--Venetia Williams (1/2*)

1--Richard Woollacott (11/4*)

28/31 winners started at 10/1 or less.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

6--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8-9/4)

5--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**)

2--Karen George (4/1** & 6/4)

2--Philip Hobbs (Evs & 11/10)

2--Colin Tizzard (5/2** & 7/2**)

1--Vic Dartnell (5/6)

1--Hugo Froud (7/4)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Nicky Henderson (6/5)

1--S. Rea (5/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (5/2**)

1--Nick Williams (7/4)

 

Southwell:

Alan Bailey continues to dominate the stats board at Southwell as his 25% strike rate (twenty one winners) has produced one hundred and thirty one points of level stake profits.  Alan held two entries for Thursday’s card at the time of writing.

 

Wolverhampton:

Andrea Atzeni has booked rides at Dunstall Park this week, the popular rider boasting an LSP reading of eight five points via fifty six winners during his short career.

Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

WEDNESDAY 06/03:

Catterick:

This is Catterick’s last NH meeting of the season, the next scheduled fixture being the first flat meeting of the year on 10th April.

CATTERICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Catterick: 26

Favourite stats: 10 (38.5% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/8 (62.5%)

 

Trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:

4--K. Reveley (Evs*-1/5*-2/5*-5/1)

3--Simon Shirley-Beavan (10/1-10/3-7/4)

2--Martin Keighley (11/4 & 15/8*)

2--Michael Smith (6/4* & 8/1)

1--Chris Bealby (11/2)

1--Mrs K. Burke (10/3)

1--S.R.B. Crawford (13/8*)

1--Brian Ellison (6/1)

1--John Ferguson (10/11*)

1--Joanne Foster (66/1)

1--Micky Hammond (11/2)

1--Phil Kirby (15/2)

1--Donald McCain (2/1)

1--David O'Meara (8/1)

1--Sue Smith (4/6*)

1--John Spearing (5/1)

1--John Wade (4/6*)

1--A.C. Whillans (15/2)

1--Venetia Williams (7/4*)

25/26 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Donald McCain (3/1-13/8-5/4-15/8-7/4)

2--Keith Reveley (6/4 & 11/4**)

2--Venetia Williams (9/2 & 1/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1--S. Crawford (11/4**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1**)

1--Micky Hammond (9/2)

1--Phil Kirby (4/1)

1--Andrew Parker (13/8)

1--John Quinn (1/6)

1--Martin Todhunter (4/9)

1--Tim Walford (4/1**)

1--Evan Williams (11/10)

 

Selling hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less, stats which include five successful favourites.  The last ten winners carried weights of 11-2 or less.

Class 4 Novice Hurdle event for mares at 3.20: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two odds on winners.

Class 4 Handicap Chase for novices over an extended three miles, due to be contested at 2.50: Five favourites have won during the last decade, eight gold medallists having been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

Class 4 nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Two favourites have won during the last decade, with six winners scoring at odds ranging between 10/1 and 33/1.  Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-4 or more.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 4.50: Just one market leader has scored during the last eleven renewals which is a very unusual statistic in Hunter Chase events.  Just three of the last ten favourites have finished in the frame to add insult to injury for toteplacepot enthusiasts who include well fancied horses.

Bumper event due to be contested at 5.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals of the scheduled finale with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a five-timer on this occasion.  Five favourites have obliged via seven renewals.

 

Fontwell (Note the toteplacepot information in the opening paragraphs this week):

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Fontwell: 7

Favourite stats: 1 (14.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/2

 

Trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:

1--Miss Sally Duckett (11/10*)

1--Philip Hobbs (9/4)

1--Seamus Mullins (4/1)

1--Helen Nelmes (14/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (3/1)

1--David Pipe (7/4)

1--Evan Williams (10/1)

Five of the seven winners to date started at odds of 4/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Paul Nicholls (5/6 & 7/4)

1--Vic Dartnell (10/11)

1--Tom George (2/1)

1--Charlie Longsdon (11/8)

1--Oliver Sherwood (2/1)

 

Class 4 Novice Hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Six-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals to date, whilst snaring nine of the available nineteen toteplacepot positions.  All eight favourites have been beaten to date albeit the biggest priced winner of this event was returned at just 13/2 before last year‘s 33/1 gold medallist reared its ugly head.  Four of the eight market leaders finished in the frame thus far.

Two and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 2.40: Four of the seven market leaders have reached the frame whilst favourites have secured three of the last four contests, their only victories in the race.

Maiden hurdle due to be contested at 4.10: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.40: Eight-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests during which time, just one (11/8) favourite prevailed, albeit the biggest priced winner was a 9/1 chance.

 

Kempton:

Ron Harris (eighty points) and Jo Crowley (seventy nine) have produced terrific level stake profits at Kempton in recent years.  For the record, Richard Hannon has saddled one hundred and four winners during the study period, albeit his strike rate stands at 15% which is ordinary by Richard’s standards.  Level stake losses of sixty points emphasise my point.

 

Lingfield:

Jewelled (scheduled to contest the 4.30 event on the card) was only beaten a length at odds of 33/1 at Kempton last week and with trainer Lady Herries boasting decent stats here at Lingfield, the Fantastic Light mare might be worth another each way play.  The trainer has saddled three winners from thirteen runners here in recent times, earning Lady Herries black figures in the LSP sector.

Well I Declare: 5th to 10th March 2013

Well I Declare: 5th to 10th March 2013

Well I Declare: 5th to 10th March 2013

NH statistics from selected leading trainers during the last seven days:

10/19--Paul Nicholls (18/1-5/1-9/4-2/1-13/8*,
5/4*-Evs*-Evs*-4/5*-4/7*-)
5/22--Venetia Williams (13/2-9/4*-7/2*-2/1**4/6*)
4/16--Philip Hobbs (40/1-11/10*-4/5*-2/5*)
3/5--Tony Carroll (8/1-7/1-13/2)
3/11--Henry Daly (9/1-15/2-7/1)
3/11--Nicky Henderson (15/8-7/4-Evs*)
3/21--David Pipe (7/1-4/1**-15/8*)
3/10--Sue Smith (16/1-Evs*-8/15*)
3/14--Jonjo O’Neill (10/1-7/1-3/1)
2/2 --Joanne Foster (66/1 & 3/1)
2/2--John Quinn (7/2 & 7/4*)
2/4--Steve Gollings (9/2 & 1/2*)
2/8--Oliver Sherwood (11/2 & 10/3)
2/9--Charlie Longsdon (14/1 twice)
2/9--James Ewart (7/4* & 5/4*)
2/14--Keith Reveley (9/1 & 9/4*)
2/17--Tim Vaughan (4/1 & 3/1)
2/19--Nigel Twiston-Davies (15/2 & 11/4**)
2/20--Evan Williams (10/3 & 9/4)
2/21--Donald McCain (Evs* & 4/1)

Wednesday’s meeting at Fontwell produced the biggest toteplacepot dividend in Britain last year when just 2.35 tickets were successful, producing a return of £24,236.50 to a one pound stake. 

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2013:

Wolverhampton--£8,672.40--Tuesday January 22

Sedgefield--£4,761.40--Friday January 11

Southwell (A/W)--£4,162.50--Tuesday February 5

Southwell (A/W)--£3,040.50--Thursday February 28

Southwell (A/W)--£2,164.50--Tuesday February 12

Lingfield (NH)--£1,679.10--Tuesday January 15

Lingfield (A/W)--£1,600.00--Friday January 25

Kempton (NH)--£1,371.50--Friday February 8

Kelso--£1,364.50--Sunday January 12

Wincanton--£1,350.50--Thursday January 31

Southwell (NH)--£1,171.30--Monday February 18

Fakenham--£1,152.20--Friday February 15

Kempton (A/W)--£1,129.40--Monday January 7

Lingfield (A/W)--£1,099.50--Tuesday February 26

Lingfield (A/W)--£1,063.50--Wednesday January 2

Lingfield (A/W)--£1,018.80--Friday February 22

Wolverhampton--£1,009.60--Friday January 11

 

Day by day analysis:

 

TUESDAY 05/03:

Exeter:

EXETER DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Exeter: 14

Favourite stats: 7 (50.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/4 (75.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Exeter in 2013:

3--David Pipe (4/1-4/5*-1/4*)

2--Susan Gardner (9/4 & 5/6)

2--Oliver Sherwood (11/4* & 2/1)

2--Colin Tizzard (7/2 & 7/2)

1--Kim Bailey (5/4*)

1--Tom George (6/5*)

1--Paul Nicholls (5/6*)

1--Brendan Powell (6/1)

1--Jeremy Scott (5/4)

All fourteen winners to date were returned at odds of 6/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Philip Hobbs (3/1-11/8-6/4)

1--Vic Dartnell (11/10)

1--Emma Lavelle (3/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (7/5)

1--Oliver Sherwood (4/5)

 

2.30: Six-year-olds have secured thirteen of the twenty-seven available toteplacepot positions to date (including five winners) whilst five-year-olds have won three of the other four renewals thus far (1-2-3 two years ago. Six of the ten favourites have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

3.00: Jeremy Scott has won with the last two runners he has saddled in this event and last year’s winner JOSH’S DREAMWAY defends his crown.  Eight of the last nine winners carried weights of 10-12 or less, with other recent gold medallists having been burdened with 11-4 and 11-2.  Handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum trip are the hardest races to call in terms of the number of favourites that fail to justify their position in the market as I have said many times.  There have been just two winning favourites to report via ten renewals to date in this event, whilst just two of the other nine market leaders additionally secured a toteplacepot position.

3.30: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less.
Winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence via the last 13 renewals, whilst only six of the 15 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

4.00: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the eight available toteplacepot/each way positions to date, though it is the older raiders who lead 2-1 from a win perspective.  Two of the three market leaders (gold and silver medallists) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

4.30: All four winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.  Three of the four favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).

 

Newcastle:

NEWCASTLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newcastle: 14

Favourite stats: 8 (57.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

Trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

3--J. Wade (6/5*-15/8*-5/2*)

2--Neil Alexander (1/2* & 7/2)

1--Tristram Davidson (7/1)

1--James Ewart (6/4*)

1--Joanne Foster (6/1)

1--Tom Gretton (9/2)

1--David Pipe (8/11*)

1--Keith Reveley (5/2)

1--Nicky Richards (6/4*)

1--Lucinda Russell (3/1)

1--Sharon Watt (Evs*)

All fourteen winners scored at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--James Ewart (2/1)

1--Chris Grant (7/2)

1--John Norton (11/4)

1--David O'Meara (13/8)

1--Martin Todhunter (9/4)

1--Donald Whillans (5/2)

 

Southwell:

James Tate’s only runner at Southwell on Tuesday is Dubawi Island (Robert Tart booked to ride) with the trainer boasting a 38% strike rate at the track, the six winners having produced a level stake profit of thirteen points.

 

WEDNESDAY 06/03:

Catterick:

This is Catterick’s last NH meeting of the season, the next scheduled fixture being the first flat meeting of the year on 10th April.

CATTERICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Catterick: 26

Favourite stats: 10 (38.5% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/8 (62.5%)

 

Trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:

4--K. Reveley (Evs*-1/5*-2/5*-5/1)

3--Simon Shirley-Beavan (10/1-10/3-7/4)

2--Martin Keighley (11/4 & 15/8*)

2--Michael Smith (6/4* & 8/1)

1--Chris Bealby (11/2)

1--Mrs K. Burke (10/3)

1--S.R.B. Crawford (13/8*)

1--Brian Ellison (6/1)

1--John Ferguson (10/11*)

1--Joanne Foster (66/1)

1--Micky Hammond (11/2)

1--Phil Kirby (15/2)

1--Donald McCain (2/1)

1--David O'Meara (8/1)

1--Sue Smith (4/6*)

1--John Spearing (5/1)

1--John Wade (4/6*)

1--A.C. Whillans (15/2)

1--Venetia Williams (7/4*)

25/26 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Donald McCain (3/1-13/8-5/4-15/8-7/4)

2--Keith Reveley (6/4 & 11/4**)

2--Venetia Williams (9/2 & 1/2)

1--S. Crawford (11/4**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1**)

1--Micky Hammond (9/2)

1--Phil Kirby (4/1)

1--Andrew Parker (13/8)

1--John Quinn (1/6)

1--Martin Todhunter (4/9)

1--Tim Walford (4/1**)

1--Evan Williams (11/10)

 

Selling hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less, stats which include five successful favourites.  The last ten winners carried weights of 11-2 or less.

Class 4 Novice Hurdle event for mares at 3.20: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two odds on winners.

Class 4 Handicap Chase for novices over an extended three miles, due to be contested at 2.50: Five favourites have won during the last decade, eight gold medallists having been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

Class 4 nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Two favourites have won during the last decade, with six winners scoring at odds ranging between 10/1 and 33/1.  Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-4 or more.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 4.50: Just one market leader has scored during the last eleven renewals which is a very unusual statistic in Hunter Chase events.  Just three of the last ten favourites have finished in the frame to add insult to injury for toteplacepot enthusiasts who include well fancied horses.

Bumper event due to be contested at 5.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals of the scheduled finale with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a five-timer on this occasion.  Five favourites have obliged via seven renewals.

 

Fontwell (Note the toteplacepot information in the opening paragraphs this week):

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Fontwell: 7

Favourite stats: 1 (14.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/2

 

Trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:

1--Miss Sally Duckett (11/10*)

1--Philip Hobbs (9/4)

1--Seamus Mullins (4/1)

1--Helen Nelmes (14/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (3/1)

1--David Pipe (7/4)

1--Evan Williams (10/1)

Five of the seven winners to date started at odds of 4/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Paul Nicholls (5/6 & 7/4)

1--Vic Dartnell (10/11)

1--Tom George (2/1)

1--Charlie Longsdon (11/8)

1--Oliver Sherwood (2/1)

 

Class 4 Novice Hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Six-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals to date, whilst snaring nine of the available nineteen toteplacepot positions.  All eight favourites have been beaten to date albeit the biggest priced winner of this event was returned at just 13/2 before last year‘s 33/1 gold medallist reared its ugly head.  Four of the eight market leaders finished in the frame thus far.

Two and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 2.40: Four of the seven market leaders have reached the frame whilst favourites have secured three of the last four contests, their only victories in the race.

Maiden hurdle due to be contested at 4.10: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.40: Eight-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests during which time, just one (11/8) favourite prevailed, albeit the biggest priced winner was a 9/1 chance.

 

Kempton:

Ron Harris (eighty points) and Jo Crowley (seventy nine) have produced terrific level stake profits at Kempton in recent years.  For the record, Richard Hannon has saddled one hundred and four winners during the study period, albeit his strike rate stands at 15% which is ordinary by Richard’s standards.  Level stake losses of sixty points emphasise my point.

 

Lingfield:

Jewelled (scheduled to contest the 4.30 event on the card) was only beaten a length at odds of 33/1 at Kempton last week and with trainer Lady Herries boasting decent stats here at Lingfield, the Fantastic Light mare might be worth another each way play.  The trainer has saddled three winners from thirteen runners here in recent times, earning Lady Herries black figures in the LSP sector.

 

THURSDAY 07/03:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Carlisle: 12

Favourite stats: 3 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

1--Neil Alexander (9/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (12/1)

1--Tony Coyle (13/2)

1--Brian Ellison (11/4)

1--Chris Grant (5/2)

1--Philip Kirby (22/1)

1--Barry Murtagh (11/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--Dianne Sayer (16/1)

1--Nicky Richards (1/8*)

1--Tim Vaughan (8/11*)

1--Venetia Williams (15/8*)

9/12 winners scored at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)

1--George Charlton (3/1**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1***)

1--Tom Gretton (7/2)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (9/4)

1--Charlie Longsdon (Evs)

1--Donald McCain (4/9)

1--Noel Kelly (4/9)

1--John Norton (4/1***)

1--Sue Smith (4/1***)

 

‘Hands and Heels’ event scheduled for 2.10: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 whilst just one (11/4) market leader has prevailed thus far.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have won six of the last seven contests during which time, two market leaders have obliged alongside two joint favourites.  All eight winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 3.45: Sue Smith has won three of the last five races in which she was represented and the trainer‘s only option earlier in the week was Camden George.  Only two favourites have scored via nine renewals, with the other winners ranging in odds between 7/2 and 25/1.  Three of the last four winners were returned at 25/1--12/1--12/1.

Class 4 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests whilst two favourites have won via nine renewals.  Six of the last eight winners carried a minimum burden of 10-13.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion, vintage representatives have secured six of the eight renewals to date.  Just two favourites have won during the last six years during which time, the other winners scored at 50/1--40/1--13/2--6/1.

 

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Wincanton: 31

Favourite stats: 11 (35.5%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5 (80.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

6--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1-Evs*-2/1)

3--Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*)

3--David Pipe (5/6*-10/1-4/1**)

2--Colin Tizzard (4/1 & 11/4**)

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4* & 12/1)

1--Bob Buckler (10/3)

1--R.B. Chanin (6/1)

1--Harry Fry (3/1)

1--Nick Lampard (9/2)

1--Michael Miller (16/1)

1--Neil Mulholland (7/2)

1--Seamus Mullins (3/1)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (1/5*)

1--Brendan Powell (14/1)

1--Richard Price (10/1)

1--Andy Turnell (2/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1--Nick Williams (11/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1--Venetia Williams (1/2*)

1--Richard Woollacott (11/4*)

28/31 winners started at 10/1 or less.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

6--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8-9/4)

5--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**)

2--Karen George (4/1** & 6/4)

2--Philip Hobbs (Evs & 11/10)

2--Colin Tizzard (5/2** & 7/2**)

1--Vic Dartnell (5/6)

1--Hugo Froud (7/4)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Nicky Henderson (6/5)

1--S. Rea (5/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (5/2**)

1--Nick Williams (7/4)

 

Southwell:

Alan Bailey continues to dominate the stats board at Southwell as his 25% strike rate (twenty one winners) has produced one hundred and thirty one points of level stake profits.  Alan held two entries for Thursday’s card at the time of writing.

 

Wolverhampton:

Andrea Atzeni has booked rides at Dunstall Park this week, the popular rider boasting an LSP reading of eight five points via fifty six winners during his short career.

 

FRIDAY 08/03:

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ayr: 35

Favourite stats: 17 (48.6% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 6/10 (60.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:

8--Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1)

7--Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**-8/13*-2/9*)

3--Jim Goldie (12/1-6/1-10/1)

3--J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1)

2--Nick Alexander (11/4 & 5/1)

2--Nicky Richards (6/4* & 9/2)

2--D. Whillans (11/4* & 13/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (11/4)

1--S. Crawford (10/1)

1--Tim Easterby (4/6*)

1--James Ewart (11/10*)

1--Phil Kirby (5/1)

1--Ferdy Murphy (16/1)

1--David Pipe (9/4**)

1--Dianne Sayer (3/1)

32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4--Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**-11/10)

4--David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8-6/5)

2--Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)

1--Maurice Barnes (9/4**)

1--G. Bewley (6/4)

1--S. Coltherd (9/4)

1--S. Crawford (10/11)

1--Rose Dobbin (9/4)

1--I. Jardine (10/11*)

1--J.J. Lambe (9/2)

1--Barry Murtagh (15/8)

1--Nicky Richards (15/8)

1--Alan Swinbank (9/4**)

1--A.C. Whillans (7/5)

 

Leicester:

LEICESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 19

Favourite stats: 11 (57.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/6

 

Trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:

3--Tom George (7/1-1/4*-13/8*)

3--Venetia Williams (2/1*-3/1*-2/1**)

2--John Ferguson (6/5* & 8/11*)

2--David Pipe (10/11* & 15/8*)

1--Roger Curtis (16/1)

1--Henry Daly (7/4*)

1--Richard Guest (5/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (10/11*)

1--Miss Kayley Jones (9/2)

1--Charlie Longsdon (14/1)

1--Anthony Middleton (5/2)

1--Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/4)

17/19 winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--David Pipe (15/8 & 10/3**)

1--David Arbuthnot (3/1)

1--Michael Blake (2/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (2/1**)

1--Alan King (10/11)

1--Donald McCain (10/3**)

1--Mrs C. Robinson (10/11)

1--Oliver Sherwood (9/4)

1--Andy Turnell (4/1)

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sandown: 20

Favourite stats: 6 (30.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/6 (16.7%)

 

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

3--Nicky Henderson (7/4-11/10*-9/4*)

2--Gary Moore (20/1 & 5/1)

2--David Pipe (11/4 & 4/7*)

2--Venetia Williams (5/1 & 7/2)

1--Mrs F. J. Browne (2/1)

1--Vic Dartnell (14/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (11/10*)

1--Sophie Leech (7/1)

1--Charlie Mann (12/1)

1--Richard Mitchell (7/1)

1--Anna Newton Smith (16/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (7/4*)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/4)

1--Jeremy Scott (7/2)

1--Evan Williams (Evs*)

16/20 winners sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4--Nicky Henderson (5/2-4/7-5/2-5/2)

2--Paul Nicholls (1/3 & 2/5)

1--Mrs Jenny Gordon (15/8)

1--Warren Greatrex (15/8)

1--Emma Lavelle (10/11)

1--Andrew Martin (7/2**)

1--Gary Moore (7/2**)

1--David Pipe (3/1)

1--Jeremy Scott (10/3)

1--Nick Williams (11/4)

1--Venetia Williams (5/6)

Amateur riders’ handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner via nine renewals during the last decade was returned at 13/2.  Four successful favourites have been recorded in the process.

Class 3 Handicap Chase over the minimum trip due to be contested at 2.50.  Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick as do six-year-olds.  Five of the last six winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-2.

Grand Military Gold Cup scheduled for 3.25: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals during which time, nine winners have scored at odds of 13/2 or less. Paul Nicholls had Merrion Square involved at the five day stage, the trainer having won three of the last eight renewals.

Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over two and three quarter miles scheduled for 4.00: Charlie Longsdon has saddled two 14/1 winners during the last week and the trainer comes into this event on a hat trick, with Greenlaw being his only potential raider earlier at the time of writing.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 5.10: Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last ten winners during which time, four favourites obliged.

 

Wolverhampton:

Last year’s northern based rising sensation Shirley Teasdale has ridden more winners at Wolverhampton than at any other venue, producing a level stake profit of sixty four points into the bargain.

 

SATURDAY 09/03:

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ayr: 35

Favourite stats: 17 (48.6% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 6/10 (60.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:

8--Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1)

7--Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**-8/13*-2/9*)

3--Jim Goldie (12/1-6/1-10/1)

3--J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1)

2--Nick Alexander (11/4 & 5/1)

2--Nicky Richards (6/4* & 9/2)

2--D. Whillans (11/4* & 13/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (11/4)

1--S. Crawford (10/1)

1--Tim Easterby (4/6*)

1--James Ewart (11/10*)

1--Phil Kirby (5/1)

1--Ferdy Murphy (16/1)

1--David Pipe (9/4**)

1--Dianne Sayer (3/1)

32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4--Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**-11/10)

4--David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8-6/5)

2--Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)

1--Maurice Barnes (9/4**)

1--G. Bewley (6/4)

1--S. Coltherd (9/4)

1--S. Crawford (10/11)

1--Rose Dobbin (9/4)

1--I. Jardine (10/11*)

1--J.J. Lambe (9/2)

1--Barry Murtagh (15/8)

1--Nicky Richards (15/8)

1--Alan Swinbank (9/4**)

1--A.C. Whillans (7/5)

 

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Chepstow: 21

Favourite stats: 8 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

2--Vic Dartnell (9/2 & 7/2)

2--Martin Keighley (7/2 twice)

2--Michael Scudamore (10/1 & 20/1)

2--Colin Tizzard (9/2 & 11/4*)

1--Rebecca Curtis (7/2)

1--Henry Daly (11/4*)

1--John Ferguson (10/3)

1--Mark Gillard (9/4*)

1--Philip Hobbs (7/2)

1--Sophie Leech (25/1)

1--Neil Mulholland (6/4*)

1--Seamus Mullins (28/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (10/11*)

1--David Pipe (5/1**)

1--Jeremy Scott (6/4**)

1--Mark Sheppard (6/4*)

1--Venetia Williams (7/1)

18/21 winners scored at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4--Paul Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4-8/11)

2--Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (5/1** & 6/4)

1--Bob Buckler (2/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (6/4**)

1--Donald McCain (5/2)

1--Gary Moore (11/4)

1--Fergal O'Brien (3/1**)

1--David Pipe (5/2)

1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)

1--Venetia Williams (10/11*)

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sandown: 20

Favourite stats: 6 (30.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/6 (16.7%)

 

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

3--Nicky Henderson (7/4-11/10*-9/4*)

2--Gary Moore (20/1 & 5/1)

2--David Pipe (11/4 & 4/7*)

2--Venetia Williams (5/1 & 7/2)

1--Mrs F. J. Browne (2/1)

1--Vic Dartnell (14/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (11/10*)

1--Sophie Leech (7/1)

1--Charlie Mann (12/1)

1--Richard Mitchell (7/1)

1--Anna Newton Smith (16/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (7/4*)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/4)

1--Jeremy Scott (7/2)

1--Evan Williams (Evs*)

16/20 winners sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4--Nicky Henderson (5/2-4/7-5/2-5/2)

2--Paul Nicholls (1/3 & 2/5)

1--Mrs Jenny Gordon (15/8)

1--Warren Greatrex (15/8)

1--Emma Lavelle (10/11)

1--Andrew Martin (7/2**)

1--Gary Moore (7/2**)

1--David Pipe (3/1)

1--Jeremy Scott (10/3)

1--Nick Williams (11/4)

1--Venetia Williams (5/6)

 

Grade 3 novice handicap hurdle finale scheduled for 2.05: Six-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven contests, whilst just one favourite prevailed during the study period.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last eight renewals.

‘Imperial Cup’ scheduled for 3.15: Favourites have prevailed six times during the last eleven years which is a phenomenal record given the usual competitive nature of the contest.  David Pipe’s four penultimate stage entries catch the eye at the time of writing, especially as ‘Team Pipe’ have landed five of the last eleven renewals.  The last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-13.

Listed mares bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four and five of the last nine contests.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase due to be contested at 5.00: All five winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst nine-year-olds have secured three of the five renewals to date.  Two favourites have obliged thus far.

 

Wolverhampton:

Listed seven furlong event scheduled for 2.20: Just one (co) favourite has scored via six renewals thus far.

‘Lincoln Trial’ scheduled for 2.55: The Lincoln Trial emerges from the bleak mid winter to offer readers hope for the forthcoming spring on the eve of the Cheltenham Festival whereby life is not all bad by any means.  Upwards and onwards in positive mode by passing on news that the last six winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more whilst five-year-olds have won five contests during the last decade.

Six furlong Class 2 handicap scheduled for 4.05:  Favourites (of one description or another) have won six of the last seven renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

Class 4 seven furlongs handicap event scheduled for 5.15: Mark Johnston has saddled the last two gold medallists and Mark was obviously intent on securing the hat trick as he was responsible for four of the thirteen penultimate stage entries.

 

SUNDAY 10/03:

Market Rasen:

MARKET RASEN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Market Rasen: 14

Favourite stats: 7 (50.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/4

Trainers of winners at Market Rasen in 2013:

1--David Bridgwater (5/1)

1--Alan Brown (20/1)

1--Mrs Edward Crow (20/1)

1--Henry Daly (4/1)

1--Tim Easterby (10/11*)

1--John Ferguson (1/2*)

1--Joanne Foster (9/1)

1--Alex Hales (14/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (6/4*)

1--Donal McCain (10/11*)

1--Graeme McPherson (2/1*)

1--Tim Vaughan (7/4*)

1--Lucy Wadham (9/4**)

1--Tim Walford (66/1)

9/14 winners were returned at odds of 5/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--David O'Meara (2/1 * 9/4**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (7/2** & 11/4)

1--Mick Channon (7/2**)

1--Chris Grant (9/4**)

1--Alex Hales (5/2)

1--Charlie Longsdon (9/4**)

1--Donald McCain (10/11)

1--Mrs C. Robinson (11/8)

 

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Five-year-olds have secured eleven of the last fourteen available toteplacepot/each way positions, statistics which include four (28/1-13/2-2/1-15/8) winners.

Two and three quarter mile handicap chase scheduled 3.20: The last seven winners (three successful market leaders) have been returned at odds of 9/2 or less, as have eight of the nine gold medallists in total.  Six of the last seven winners were burdened with a minimum weight of 11-2.

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.50: Only one favourite has obliged via the last nine contests whilst the toteplacepot enthusiasts among you might like to learn that the last four market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Two and a half mile novice chase event scheduled for 4.20:  Although we had to wait until last year for the first successful favourite, all five winners have been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.  All five gold medallists have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Two and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 4.50: Eight-year-olds lead the nine-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals to date during which time, two (4/7 & 11/10) favourites prevailed.

Conditional jockey‘s handicap hurdle scheduled for 5.20: We still await the first successful favourite to be recorded following five contests, the gold medallists having been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1.  All five winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 11-1.

 

Warwick:

WARWICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Warwick: 22

Favourite stats: 8 (36.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/3

 

Trainers of winners at Warwick in 2013:

2--Tom George (11/2 & 2/1)

2--David Pipe (1/2* & 7/4*)

2--Nicky Henderson (7/4* & 9/4*)

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/1 & 1/2*)

1--D. Burchell (9/1)

1--Henry Daly (9/4*)

1--Karen George (4/1*)

1--Warren Greatrex (12/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (11/2)

1--Alan King (Evs*)

1--Charlie Longsdon (12/1)

1--Pat Murphy (7/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (7/4)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (7/1)

1--John Ryan (10/1)

1--Colin Tizzard (14/1)

1--Robert Walford (6/1)

1--Venetia Williams (5/1)

19/22 gold medallists were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Tom George (4/1 & 10/11)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (10/3 & 3/1)

2--Venetia Williams (7/2 & 6/4)

1--Andrew Balding (2/1)

1--Anthony Honeyball (3/1)

1--Martin Keighley (7/2)

1--Emma Lavelle (6/5)

1--Charlie Longsdon (7/2)

1--Paul Nicholls (11/10)

1--David Pipe (10/3)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/1)

 

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.00: Three favourites have won during the last eleven years during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 10/1.   Eight of the last ten winners carried eleven stones or more.

Novice chase event for mares scheduled for 2.30: Four of the five favourites have prevailed whilst the other gold medallist scored at just 2/1.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 3.30: Seven of the last ten contests have been secured by market leaders.

Three mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 4.00: Just one favourite has obliged via the last nine renewals.

Well I Declare: 26th Feb to 3rd March 2013

Well I Declare: 26th Feb to 3rd March 2013

Well I Declare: 26th Feb to 3rd March 2013

Selected leading trainers under both codes--how they have fared during the last seven days:

NH:

8/21--David Pipe (11/4-2/1-7/4*-7/4-8/11*-4/7*-1/2*-1/2*)
5/21--Nicky Henderson (9/2-3/1-5/2-9/4*-11/10*)
4/19--Paul Nicholls (3/1-9/2-5/4*-4/9*)
4/24--Philip Hobbs (20/1-11/2-7/2-9/4)
4/24--Venetia Williams (7/2-7/2*-9/4*-10/11*)
3/5--Harry Fry (12/1-9/4-1/3*)
3/18--Donald McCain (2/1*-8/13*-2/9*)
3/18--Evan Williams (25/1-10/1-7/4*)
2/7--Colin Tizzard (11/4* & 9/4)
2/19--Tim Vaughan (14/1 & 4/1)
1/1--John Ryan (10/1)
1/13--Gary Moore (5/1)
1-18--Alan King (5/1)
0/5--Lucinda Russell
0/6--Rebecca Curtis
0/9--Charlie Longsdon
0/11--Nigel Twiston-Davies
0/13--Tom George
0/25--Jonjo O’Neill

 

A/W:

4/19--David Evans (7/1-6/1-7/2-2/1*)
3/5--Derek Shaw (10/1-13/2-3/1*)
3/6--Marco Botti (2/5*-4/6*-5/2)
3-18--Tony Carroll (8/1-4/1-3/1)
2/2--Michael Bell (11/4* & 5/4)
2/4--John Ryan (6/1 & 11/4)
2/6--David Simcock (9/2 & 15/8)
2/9--Mark Johnston (5/1 & 1/3*)
1/4--Charlie Hills (11/2)
1/6--Gary Moore (5/4)
1/10--Alan McCabe (5/1)

 

Day by day analysis:

TUESDAY 26/02:

Catterick:

CATTERICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Catterick: 19

Favourite stats: 8 (42.1% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/6 (66.7%)

 

Trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:

4--Keith Reveley (Evs*-1/5*-2/5*-5/1)
2--Simon Shirley-Beavan (10/1 & 10/3)
1--Chris Bealby (11/2)
1--S.R.B. Crawford (13/8*)
1--Brian Ellison (6/1)
1--Micky Hammond (11/2)
1--Martin Keighley (11/4)
1--Donald McCain (2/1)
1--David O'Meara (8/1)
1--Michael Smith (6/4*)
1--Sue Smith (4/6*)
1--John Spearing (5/1)
1--John Wade (4/6*)
1--A.C. Whillans (15/2)
1--Venetia Williams (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Donald McCain (3/1-13/8-5/4-15/8-7/4)
1--Micky Hammond (9/2)
1--Andrew Parker (13/8)
1--John Quinn (1/6)
1--Keith Reveley (6/4)
1--Martin Todhunter (4/9)
1--Venetia Williams (9/2)

 

Leicester:

LEICESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 13

Favourite stats: 9 (69.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

 

Trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:

3--Tom George (7/1-1/4*-13/8*)
2--John Ferguson (6/5* & 8/11*)
2--Venetia Williams (2/1* & 3/1*)
1--Roger Curtis (16/1)
1--Henry Daly (7/4*)
1--Philip Hobbs (10/11*)
1--Anthony Middleton (5/2)
1--David Pipe (10/11*)
1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/4)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Michael Blake (2/1)
1--Alan King (10/11)
1--David Pipe (15/8)
1--Oliver Sherwood (9/4)

2.30: Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 11-8 or less whilst nine-year-olds attempt to land a five-timer in the contest.  Just two favourites have obliged via the last 14 renewals, whilst five of the last ten gold medallists scored at 33/1-22/1-12/1-10/1-9/1.

3.00: Six of the last seven winners have carried eleven stones or more, as have eight of the ten gold medallists.   One clear and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, whilst only four of the twelve market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.  That said, six winners during the last decade scored at odds of 4/1 or less.

3.30: Tom George saddled last year’s winner and with the trainer on the thirteen winner mark in 2013, stable representative Hoare Abbey must be included in the mix.

4.00: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals (the vintage was only represented by a 66/1 outsider last year), whilst seven of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.

4.30: Ten of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners), confirming regular reports in this column that market leaders in Hunter Chase events boast an impressive record at nearly every venue in the land.

5.00: Nine-year-olds have claimed five of the last ten renewals though just three potential vintage representatives were among the twenty-three five-day entries.  Only David Pipe has declared a vintage representative at the final stage, with course and distance winner (albeit via separate occasions) Quinte Du Chatelet being the Pond House raider on this occasion.  Four favourites have obliged via nine contests during the last 15 years, with outsiders having scored at 80/1—20/1—14/1 via the last ten renewals.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: William Jarvis has a fair ‘dual’ record here at Lingfield, his level profit reading (nearly seventeen points during the last five years) just edging the figures over William’s 16% strike rate.

 

WEDNESDAY 27/02:

Bangor:

BANGOR NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Bangor: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Trainers of winners at Bangor in 2013:

1--Rebecca Curtis (2/1*)
1--Miss Sally Duckett (5/4*)
1--Richard Ford (15/2)
1--Harry Fry (1/2*)
1--Warren Greatrex (6/1)
1--Nicky Henderson (5/4)
1--David Pipe (15/2)
Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Donald McCain (11/10 & 5/6)
1--Barry Leavy (10/3)
1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/2)

Hurdle event confined to mares scheduled for 2.50: Five-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals whilst six-year-olds have won the other four races during the last nine years.  Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the last six winners and the trainer held just one option (Cevaro) at the penultimate entry stage.

Three mile handicap hurdle event due to be contested at 3.50: Donald McCain comes to the gig on a hat trick with Donald holding two entries at the time of writing.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-1 have won the last five renewals.

 

Kempton:

Clive Cox is quickening the pace back on the ranch and should be ready to further improve his 15% strike rate at Kempton in recent years which has produced ten points of level stake profits.

 

Lingfield (NH):

LINGFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Lingfield: 34

Favourite stats: 11 (32.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/12 (33.3%)

Trainers of winners at Lingfield in 2013:

2--George Baker (6/4* & 5/2*)
2--Mick Channon (13/8 & 16/1)
2--Philip Hobbs (9/4 & 4/6*)
2--Gary Moore (8/1 & 11/4)
2--Pat Phelan (7/2 & 4/7*)
1--David Arbuthnot (5/2)
1--Alison Batchelor (66/1)
1--Ben Case (33/1)
1--Miss Sally Duckett (2/1)
1--Charlie Egerton (5/4*)
1--David Evans (25/1)
1--James Fanshawe (9/4*)
1--Richenda Ford (9/2)
1--Warren Greatrex (12/1)
1--Tom Gretton (7/4*)
1--Phil Hiatt (9/4*)
1--Linda Jewell (20/1)
1--Alan King (3/1**)
1--Andrew Martin (5/1)
1--Andrew Middleton (5/1)
1--Hughie Morrison (8/11*)
1--John Mullins (16/1)
1--Jonjo O'Neill (6/1)
1--Jamie Poulton (12/1)
1--Oliver Sherwood (3/1)
1--Suzy Smith (4/7*)
1--Tim Vaughan (11/4)
1--Paul Webber (25/1)
1--Raymond York (7/1)

25/34 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Nicky Henderson (13/8--4/7--5/4)
2--Tim Vaughan (4/11 & 4/6)
1--David Arbuthnot (7/4)
1--Caroline Bailey (4/5)
1--Kim Bailey (9/4)
1--George Baker (4/9)
1--S. Flook (5/4)
1--Warren Greatrex (11/4)
1--Ben De Haan (9/4)
1--Anthony Honeyball (3/1)
1--Martin Keighley (5/2)
1--Alan King (10/11)
1--Neil King (7/4)
1--Charlie Longsdon (6/5)
1--Charlie Mann (2/5)
1--Jonjo O'Neill (2/1)
1--Suzy Smith (3/1**)
1--Andy Turnell (5/4)
1--Sarah Wall (5/2)
1--Paul Webber (4/6)
1--Venetia Williams (6/4)

 

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Wincanton: 25

Favourite stats: 9 (36.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

4--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1)
3--Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*)
2--David Pipe (5/6* & 10/1)
2--Colin Tizzard (4/1 & 11/4**)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4* & 12/1)
1--Bob Buckler (10/3)
1--R.B. Chanin (6/1)
1--Harry Fry (3/1)
1--Neil Mulholland (7/2)
1--Seamus Mullins (3/1)
1--Jonjo O'Neill (1/5*)
1--Brendan Powell (14/1)
1--Andy Turnell (2/1)
1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)
1--Nick Williams (11/2)
1--Venetia Williams (1/2*)
1--Richard Woollacott (11/4*)

23/25 winners started at 10/1 or less.

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8)
5--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**)
2--Philip Hobbs (Evs & 11/10)
2--Colin Tizzard (5/2** & 7/2**)
1--Vic Dartnall (5/6)
1--Tom George (13/8)
1--Nicky Henderson (6/5)
1--S. Rea (5/1)
1--Tim Vaughan (5/2**)

 

THURSDAY 28/02:

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ludlow: 28

Favourite stats: 11 (39.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/6

Trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013 (stats include one dead heat):

Your first 30 days for just £1

3--Venetia Williams (2/1*-9/1-7/2*)
2--Nicky Henderson (4/5* & 7/2)
2--Richard Lee (4/1* & 10/3)
2--Paul Nicholls (11/2 & 7/4*)
2--Tom Symonds (2/1* & 17/2)
1--Martin Bosley (3/1*)
1--Henry Daly (11/2)
1--Claire Dyson (9/2)
1--Nick Gifford (5/6*)
1--John Groucott (7/1)
1--Philip Hobbs (7/1)
1--Martin Keighley (5/6*)
1--Alan King (8/1)
1--Andrew Martin (12/1)
1--Neil Mulholland (25/1)
1--Dr Richard Newland (16/1)
1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/2)
1--Hilary Parrott (7/4*)
1--David Pipe (6/4)
1--David Pritchard (5/2*)
1--John Spearing (12/1)
1--Tim Vaughan (14/1)
1--Evan Williams (17/2)

24/29 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less
Trainers of beaten favourites:

4--Venetia Williams (11/4-15/8-11/8-3/1)
3--N. Henderson (6/4-10/11-9/4)
2--Evan Williams (10/3 & 4/1**)
2--John Ferguson (5/4 & 2/7)
1--David Evans (11/4)
1--Philip Hobbs (7/4)
1--Donald McCain (4/1**)
1--Paul Nicholls (5/2)
1--Ollie Pears (4/7)
1--Jeremy Scott (10/3)
1--Richard Woolacott (15/8)

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have secured six of the last nine renewals during which time, four favourites have obliged.  Seven of the last eight winners have been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.  Seven of the last nine gold medallists have carried weight of 11-1 or more to victory.

Three mile handicap hurdle event for mares scheduled for 3.00: Six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals during which time, winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.30: Eight-year-olds come into the contest on a six-timer, vintage representatives having also won seven of the last ten contests.  Six favourites have won during the study period whilst the last six gold medallists were returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

 

Taunton:

TAUNTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Taunton: 19

Favourite stats: 12 (63.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/4

Trainers of winners at Taunton in 2013:

3--Venetia Williams (6/4*-5/4*-4/6*)
3--Paul Nicholls: (7/4*-5/6*-6/5*)
2--David Pipe (2/1* & 8/11*)
2--Colin Tizzard (7/2* & 9/4)
2--Evan Williams (10/1 & 25/1)
1--Kevin Bishop (6/1)
1--Chris Down (3/1*)
1--Alexandra Dunn (5/1)
1--Harry Fry (9/4)
1--Susan Johnson (14/1)
1--Paul Webber (4/9*)
1--Laura Young (9/4*)

17/19 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less thus far,
sixteen of which were sent off at a top price of 6/1

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Philip Hobbs (15/8 & 6/4)
1--Kevin Bishop (4/1***)
1--Alex Hales (4/1***)
1--Dr Richard Newland (6/4)
1--Paul Nicholls (6/4)
1--Tom Symonds (2/1)
1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/1***)
1--Tim Vaughan (2/1)

Two mile three furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: The last ten winners have scored at 6/1 or less, stats which include three winning favourites.  All ten winners carried weights of 11-1 or more.   Five-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests during which time, Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls (both potentially represented at the time of asking) have won two renewals.

Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: Six-year-olds have secured six of the last nine renewals.  The biggest priced winner during the study period was a 9/2 chance, whilst four of the last five market leaders have prevailed.  The last eight gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

 

Southwell:

David Barron has just the two horses entered up at Southwell this week, the trainer having produced ninety-three points of level stake profits at the venue in the last five years via a 25% strike rate.

 

Kempton:

Ron Harris has enjoyed some fine successes during the last year and his eighty-three LSP reading here at Kempton shows that the trainer can also cut it with the best in the A/W sector as well as at Ascot, Sandown and York!

 

FRIDAY 01/03:

Doncaster:

DONCASTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Doncaster: 28

Favourite stats: 11 (39.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

Trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:

4--Nicky Henderson (4/11*-11/4**-5/2-9/4*)
3--John Ferguson (11/2-10/11*-Evs*)
2--Keith Reveley (20/1 & 7/2)
2--Venetia Williams (5/2* & 6/1)
1--Henry Daly (11/2)
1--Claire Dyson (8/1)
1--Harry Fry (13/8)
1--Tom George (9/2)
1--Richard Guest (9/2)
1--Alan Hill (11/10*)
1--Philip Hobbs (20/1)
1--Anthony Honeyball (1/4*)
1--Richard Lee (9/2)
1--Charlie Longsdon (16/1)
1--Donald McCain (4/9*)
1--Paul Nicholls (85/40)
1--John Quinn (14/1)
1--John Ryan (6/1)
1--Sue Smith (4/1*)
1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (13/8)
1--Jessica Westwood (11/4*)

24/28 winners sent off at odds of 8/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Alan King (3/1-9/4-13/2)
2--Nicky Henderson (Evs & 11/10)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (2/1 & 5/1)
2--Jeremy Scott (7/2 & 7/4)
2--Tim Vaughan (3/1 & 1/2)
1--Kim Bailey (3/1)
1--James Ewart (5/2)
1--Philip Hobbs (6/5)
1--Neil Mulholland (10/3)
1--Paul Nicholls (11/4**)
1--David Pipe (10/3)
1--Sue Smith (6/4)

Novice handicap hurdle over the minimum trip scheduled for 2.10: The last seven winners have scored at odds of 33/1, 25/1, 16/1, 11/1, 11/1, 15/2 &-7/1, though the last four favourites have (at least) managed to reach the frame.

Nineteen furlong Novice Chase event scheduled for 2.45: Six-year-olds have secured three of the five renewals to date.

Class 4 NH novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.20: Five and six-year-olds have shared four of the five renewals thus far.

Nineteen furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: The biggest priced winner via eight renewals during the last decade was recorded at odds of 11/2, with four market leaders being recorded in the process.

Claiming hurdle event due to be contested at 5.00: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via just the five renewals to date.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 5.30: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests, whilst vintage representatives come to the party on a four timer on this occasion.  Seven winners during the study period carried a minimum burden of 11-5, whilst four successful market leaders were recorded.

 

Newbury:

NEWBURY NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Newbury: 14

Favourite stats: 10 (71.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

Trainers of winners at Newbury in 2013:

3--P. Nicholls (5/4*-8/11*-4/5*)
2--Harry Fry (7/4* & 11/4*)
2--Nicky Henderson (5/4* & 5/1*)
1--Andrew Balding (8/1)
1--R. Barber (4/7*)
1--Mick Channon (8/1)
1--Philip Hobbs (4/1)
1--Alan King (7/4*)
1--David Pipe (7/4*)
1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1)
Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Tom George (6/1**)
1--Nicky Henderson (9/4)
1--Alan King (6/4)
1--Richard Lee (4/1)
1--Paul Nicholls (6/1**)

NH novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-4 via the last ten renewals

Seventeen furlong Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 2.55: Five of the last ten renewals have been won by favourites, albeit just one of the other six market leaders during the period additionally secured a toteplacepot position.

Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap chase scheduled for 3.30: Seven and eight-year-olds have equally shared four of the last five contests, vintage representatives having secured eight renewals between them during the last eleven years.

Class 4 handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 4.00: Six of the last seven winners carried 11-2 or more to victory.

 

Lingfield:

Punditry (scheduled to contest the 3.05 event on the card) was John Gosden’s only potential runner at Lingfield this week, the trainer boasting a 24% strike rate at the venue, statistics which are backed up by thirty-two points of level stake profits during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

Young Jackie is George Margarson’s only potential runner at Dunstall Park this week (scheduled to contest the 5.40 event) with the trainer amassing an LSP reading of thirty four points back up by a 26% strike rate during the last five years.

 

SATURDAY 02/03:

Doncaster:

DONCASTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Doncaster: 28

Favourite stats: 11 (39.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

Trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:

4--Nicky Henderson (4/11*-11/4**-5/2-9/4*)
3--John Ferguson (11/2-10/11*-Evs*)
2--Keith Reveley (20/1 & 7/2)
2--Venetia Williams (5/2* & 6/1)
1--Henry Daly (11/2)
1--Claire Dyson (8/1)
1--Harry Fry (13/8)
1--Tom George (9/2)
1--Richard Guest (9/2)
1--Alan Hill (11/10*)
1--Philip Hobbs (20/1)
1--Anthony Honeyball (1/4*)
1--Richard Lee (9/2)
1--Charlie Longsdon (16/1)
1--Donald McCain (4/9*)
1--Paul Nicholls (85/40)
1--John Quinn (14/1)
1--John Ryan (6/1)
1--Sue Smith (4/1*)
1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (13/8)
1--Jessica Westwood (11/4*)

24/28 winners sent off at odds of 8/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Alan King (3/1-9/4-13/2)
2--Nicky Henderson (Evs & 11/10)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (2/1 & 5/1)
2--Jeremy Scott (7/2 & 7/4)
2--Tim Vaughan (3/1 & 1/2)
1--Kim Bailey (3/1)
1--James Ewart (5/2)
1--Philip Hobbs (6/5)
1--Neil Mulholland (10/3)
1--Paul Nicholls (11/4**)
1--David Pipe (10/3)

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Favourites (of one description or another) have won the last three renewals, whilst trainer Keith Reveley (represented at the penultimate stage) has secured two of the last five contests.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.55: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-10 or less.

 

Kelso:

KELSO NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Kelso: 14

Favourite stats: 4 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/5

Trainers of winners at Kelso in 2013:

3--Nicky Richards (7/4-3/1-5/2)
2--J. Walton (10/1 & 10/11*)
1--George Bewley (8/1)
1--Brian Ellison (9/4)
1--Chris Grant (5/1)
1--Ann Hamilton (11/4**)
1--Donald McCain (6/1)
1--Ferdy Murphy (5/2)
1--John O'Shea (11/4)
1--Sue Smith (8/11*)
1--Tim Walford (8/11*)

All fourteen winners to date have scored at odds of 10/1 or less
(twelve at a top price of 6/1).

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--D. McCain (Evs-1/4-11/8)
2--David Pipe (10/11 & 11/10)
1--Nick Alexander (11/4**)
1--Fred Hutsby (2/1)
1--Phil Kirby (9/2***)
1--Karen McLintock (9/4)
1--B. Murtagh (9/2***)
1--Keith Reveley (2/1)
1--J. Wade (9/2***)
1--A.C. Whillans (2/1)

Grade 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.40: Three favourites have won via the last nine renewals, though five contests have slipped by since a market leader prevailed.  The seven previous winners had scored at odds of 6/1 or less before a 20/1 gold medallist won on behalf of the layers two years back.  The race reverted to type twelve months ago when a 9/4 chance scored.  Lucinda Russell comes to the gig on a hat trick on this occasion, the trainer having two entries at the time of asking.

 

Newbury:

NEWBURY NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Newbury: 14

Favourite stats: 10 (71.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

Trainers of winners at Newbury in 2013:

3--P. Nicholls (5/4*-8/11*-4/5*)
2--Harry Fry (7/4* & 11/4*)
2--Nicky Henderson (5/4* & 5/1*)
1--Andrew Balding (8/1)
1--R. Barber (4/7*)
1--Mick Channon (8/1)
1--Philip Hobbs (4/1)
1--Alan King (7/4*)
1--David Pipe (7/4*)
1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Tom George (6/1**)
1--Nicky Henderson (9/4)
1--Alan King (6/4)
1--Richard Lee (4/1)
1--Paul Nicholls (6/1**)

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have secured five of the last eight contests.

‘Greatwood Gold Cup’ scheduled for 3.50: Eight-year-olds have secured five of the last ten renewals whilst Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last seven winners.  Paul was responsible for three of the seventeen penultimate stage entries.  Paul held a similar number last year (3/19) before eventually saddling the 100/30 winner.

Two and a quarter-mile handicap chase scheduled for 5.00: Tom George has saddled three of the last five winners and with the stable in good form just now, Tom’s two potential runners are entitled to plenty of respect.

 

Lingfield:

Joe Fanning doesn’t travel south of Watford as many times as punters would wish, as Joe’s trips to Lingfield during the last five years have produced a level stake profit of sixty-eight points via seventy-five winners.

 

SUNDAY 03/03:

Huntingdon:

HUNTINGDON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Huntingdon: 21

Favourite stats: 8 (38.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/4

Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

5--N. Henderson (4/9*-4/7*-11/10*-11/10*-3/1)
2--Paul Nicholls (4/5* & 4/9*)
1--David Arbuthnot (6/1)
1--Caroline Bailey (6/1)
1--Kim Bailey (8/1)
1--H. Daly (10/1)
1--Diana Grissell (5/2*)
1--Martin Keighley (6/1)
1--Gary Moore (12/1)
1--John O'Neill (22/1)
1--Richard Phillips (8/1)
1--A.E. Price (5/1)
1--Oliver Sherwood (7/2)
1--T. Symonds (8/1)
1--Venetia Williams (9/2)
1--P. York (11/8*)

19/21 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Philip Hobbs (5/2 & 4/1)
2--Venetia Williams (11/4 & 5/2)
1--Roger Curtis (9/2)
1--Tom George (13/8)
1--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1)
1--Brendan Powell (9/2**)
1--Jeremy Scott (9/2**)
1--Oliver Sherwood (3/1**)
1--Pam Sly (7/2)
1--Colin Tizzard (4/1)
1--Bill Turner (13/8)
1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)
1--Lucy Wadham (4/1**)
1--Nick Williams (4/1**)

 

Sedgefield:

SEDGEFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sedgefield: 14

Favourite stats: 6 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

Trainers of winners at Sedgefield in 2013:

1--P. Atkinson (9/1)
1--S. Crawford (7/2*)
1--Rose Dobbin (16/1)
1--Mick Easterby (2/1)
1--Warren Greatrex (9/4*)
1--Ann Hamilton (8/1)
1--Malcolm Jefferson (7/2)
1--W. Kinsey (15/8*)
1--Phil Kirby (5/2*)
1--Donald McCain (4/6*)
1--Barry Murtagh (7/1)
1--Alan Swinbank (10/1)
1--John Wade (2/1*)
1--Tracy Waggott (25/1)

12/14 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Neil Mulholland (7/4 & 8/13)
1--Brian Ellison (6/4)
1--John Ferguson (11/10)
1--Steve Gollings (5/2)
1--Phil Kirby (5/2)
1--Richard Lee (6/5)
1--Donald McCain (5/4)

Well I Declare: 19th to 24th February 2013

Well I Declare: 19th to 24th February 2013

Well I Declare: 19th to 24th February 2013

I have concentrated on the last seven days under both codes for the opening sector this week.  The build up to the Cheltenham Festival invariably produces good returns on the NH front for punters, albeit some of the classy horses on parade means that odds are cramped.

There are just twenty one days to go before the highlight of the year for the majority of readers I guess….have a great week!

NH Sector during the last seven days:

Number of races: 91

Number of winning market leaders (includes joint and co favourites): 40 (43.9%)

Odds on ratio: 13/23 (56.5%)

 

Leading trainers during the study period (three or more winners):

6/17 Paul Nicholls (17/2-3/1-7/4*-8/13*-8/13*-1/3*)--Favourite ratio: 4/7

6/27 Donald McCain (9/1-6/1-5/2-9/4**-15/8*-1/5*)--Favourite ratio: 3/6

4/13 Nicky Henderson (9/4*-11/10*-4/9*-2/5*)--Favourite ratio: 4/6

4/18 Lucinda Russell (6/1-5/1-2/1*-11/8**)--Favourite ratio: 2/3

3/4 Tom George (3/1**-15/8**-11/10*) --Favourite ratio: 3/3

3/9 Colin Tizzard (2/1-11/4**-15/8*)--Favourite ratio: 2/3

3/10 Philip Hobbs (6/4*-11/10*-4/6*)--Favourite ratio: 3/3

3/17 David Pipe (10/1-4/1-4/6*)--Favourite ratio: 1/7

Others to note:

2/4 Tim Easterby (10/11* & 4/6*)--Favourite ratio: 2/3

2/5 Keith Reveley (3/1 & 11/8*)--Favourite ratio: 1/2

2/5 Gary Moore (9/2* & 11/4*)--Favourite ratio: 2/3 (+ 1/5 A/W stats)

2/6 Nicky Richards (3/1 & 5/2)--No returned favourites

2/7 Phil Kirby (22/1 & 5/1)--No returned favourites

2/9 Brian Ellison (11/4 & 9/4)--Favourite ratio: 0/1

2/11 Jonjo O’Neill (11/2 & 9/4)--Favourite ratio: 0/2

Two of the last three horses saddled by Warren Greatrex have won (14/1 & 7/2)

Negative returns include:

0/12 Tim Vaughan (1 favourite)

1/18 Venetia Williams (Seven second placed horses + 1/5 favourite ratio)

Nick Alexander: Four beaten favourites during the study period

 

A/W Sector during the last seven days:

Number of races: 66

Number of winning market leaders (includes joint and co favourites): 28 (42.4%)

Winners that were returned at odds of 10/1 or less: 56 (84.8%)

Winners that were sent off at odds of 11/1 or more: 10 (15.2%)

 

Leading trainers during the study period (two or more winners):

3/7 David Simcock (16/1-9/4**-5/4*)--Favourite ratio: 2/3

3/7 Stuart Williams (4/1-3/1-5/4*)--Favourite ratio: 1/1

2/3 Richard Ford (4/1 twice)--No returned favourites

2/3 Bryan Smart (7/2** & 5/4*)--Favourite ratio: 2/2

2/7 John Bridger (9/4 & 4/6*)--Favourite ratio: 1/1

2/5 Dean Ivory (10/1 & 5/1)--No returned favourites

2/6 Marco Botti (7/2 & 5/2*)--Favourite ratio: 1/2

2/6 John Jenkins (16/1 & 7/1)--No returned favourites

2/9 Michael Appleby (9/1 & 10/11*)--Favourite ratio: 1/2

*I do not include ‘foreign results’ in this service, though it’s worth noting that David Simcock also saddled a 9/1 winner at Meydan via just two winners.*

 

Day by analysis:

TUESDAY 19/02:

Taunton:

TAUNTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Taunton: 13

Favourite stats: 10 (76.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

 

Trainers of winners at Taunton in 2013:

3--Venetia Williams (6/4*-5/4*-4/6*)

3--Paul Nicholls: (7/4*-5/6*-6/5*)

1--Kevin Bishop (6/1)

1--Chris Down (3/1*)

1--Alexandra Dunn (5/1)

1--David Pipe (2/1*)

1--Colin Tizzard (7/2*)

1--Paul Webber (4/9*)

1--Evan Williams (10/1)

All thirteen winners returned at odds of 10/1 or less thus far, twelve of which were sent off at a top price of 6/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Philip Hobbs (15/8)

1--Dr Richard Newland (6/4)

1--Tom Symonds (2/1)

2.00: Four-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date.  Paul Nicholls saddled the first three winners of this event before last year’s stable contender secured the bronze medal.  Paul saddles four-year-old Kauto D’Aloes on this occasion.  The four market leaders thus far have secured three gold and one silver medal, one of the winners having dead heated for first place (last year).

2.30: Five and seven-year-olds have secured half of the 12 available toteplacepot positions between them in this event, statistics which include all four (28/1-10/1-15/2-9/2) winners.

All four favourites have finished out with the washing to date.

 

Wetherby:

WETHERBY NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Wetherby: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Wetherby in 2013:

2--Donald McCain (5/2 & 13/8*)

1--Tim Easterby (3/1)

1--Dr R. Newland (6/4*)

1--Richard Phillips (9/4*)

1--Lynn Siddall (100/1)

1--Sue Smith (5/1)

6/7 winners sent off at 5/1 or less to date

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Martin Keighley (2/1)

1--Donald McCain (3/1**)

1--David Pipe (11/8)

1--Renee Robeson (3/1**)

1--Sue Smith (9/4)

 

Southwell:

General stats: Joe Fanning continues to rule the waves around this circuit, having ridden seventy five winners via a 22% strike rate during the last five years.

 

WEDNESDAY 20/02:

Doncaster:

DONCASTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Doncaster: 21

Favourite stats: 7 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/4

 

Trainers of winners at Doncaster in 2013:

2--John Ferguson (11/2 & 10/11*)

2--Nicky Henderson (4/11* & 11/4**)

2--Keith Reveley (20/1 & 7/2)

2--Venetia Williams (5/2* & 6/1)

1--Henry Daly (11/2)

1--Claire Dyson (8/1)

1--Harry Fry (13/8)

1--Tom George (9/2)

1--Richard Guest (9/2)

1--Anthony Honeyball (1/4*)

1--Richard Lee (9/2)

1--Charlie Longsdon (16/1)

1--Donald McCain (4/9*)

1--Paul Nicholls (85/40)

1--John Quinn (14/1)

1--Sue Smith (4/1*)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (13/8)

18/21 winners sent off at odds of 8/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Alan King (3/1-9/4-13/2)

2--Nicky Henderson (Evs & 11/10)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (2/1 & 5/1)

2--Jeremy Scott (7/2 & 7/4)

1--Kim Bailey (3/1)

1--James Ewart (5/2)

1--Neil Mulholland (10/3)

1--Paul Nicholls (11/4**)

1--Sue Smith (6/4)

1--Tim Vaughan (3/1)

 

Ludlow:

LUDLOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ludlow: 21

Favourite stats: 7 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/4

 

Trainers of winners at Ludlow in 2013 (stats include one dead heat):

2--Nicky Henderson (4/5* & 7/2)

2--Richard Lee (4/1* & 10/3)

2--Paul Nicholls (11/2 & 7/4*)

2--Tom Symonds (2/1* & 17/2)

2--Venetia Williams (2/1* & 9/1)

1--Martin Bosley (3/1*)

1--Henry Daly (11/2)

1--Claire Dyson (9/2)

1--J. Groucott (7/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (7/1)

1--Alan King (8/1)

1--Neil Mulholland (25/1)

1--Dr Richard Newland (16/1)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/2)

1--Hilary Parrott (7/4*)

1--David Pipe (6/4)

1--Evan Williams (17/2)

20/22 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Nicky Henderson (6/4--10/11--9/4)

3--Venetia Williams (11/4--15/8--11/8)

2--John Ferguson (5/4 & 2/7)

1--David Evans (11/4)

1--Philip Hobbs (7/4)

1--Paul Nicholls (5/2)

1--Ollie Pears (4/7)

1--Evan Williams (10/3)

1--Richard Woolacott (15/8)

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Nine of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (the last nine), statistics which include five winners.

Class 4 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals with five of the eight market leaders having finished in the frame to date, statistics which include one (4/6) winner.  Evan Williams held four options for the race which he has twice during the last three years.

Conditional jockey’s event due to be contested at 4.15: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals (14/1-7/1-11/2-3/1) whilst three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include one (9/4) winner.

 

Kempton:

Looking at the A/W sector as a whole, the leading trainers in 2013 at the time of writing are as follows: David Evans (29), Marco Botti (13), with four trainers on the twelve winner mark, namely Stuart Williams, Ron Harris, David Simcock and David O’Meara.

 

Lingfield:

The leading jockeys in 2013 at present are Adam Kirby (36), Luke Morris (29), Joe Fanning (19), Robert Winston (19), Jim Crowley (19) and Andrea Atzeni (18).

 

THURSDAY 21/02:

Huntingdon:

HUNTINGDON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Huntingdon: 14

Favourite stats: 5 (35.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

 

Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

3--N. Henderson (4/9*--4/7*--11/10*)

1--Kim Bailey (8/1)

1--Henry Daly (10/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1--Diana Grissell (5/2*)

1--Martin Keighley (6/1)

1--Gary Moore (12/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (4/5*)

1--John O'Neill (22/1)

1--A.E. Price (5/1)

1--Oliver Sherwood (7/2)

1--T. Symonds (8/1)

1--Venetia Williams (9/2)

12/14 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Venetia Williams (11/4 & 5/2)

1--Roger Curtis (9/2)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Philip Hobbs (5/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1)

1--Brendan Powell (9/2**)

1--Jeremy Scott (9/2**)

1--Colin Tizzard (4/1)

1--Lucy Wadham (4/1**)

1--Nick Williams (4/1**)

 

Class 3 novice chase event scheduled for 3.00: Favourites have won the last six renewals, whilst six-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests.  Nicky Henderson has secured three of the nine renewals during the last decade and the trainer only held Tetlami as an option at the time of writing.

Mares novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.00: Six-year-olds have won all four contests thus far.

Hunter chase event scheduled for 4.30: Just two favourites have obliged (7/4 & 10/11) via seven renewals though the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 13/2.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 5.00: We still await the first successful market leader following eight contests, whilst six-year-olds have landed five of the last seven renewals.

 

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ayr: 28

Favourite stats: 14 (50.0% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/8 (50.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:

8--Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1)

5--Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**)

3--J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1)

2--Donald Whillans (11/4* & 13/2)

1--Nick Alexander (11/4)

1--Maurice Barnes (11/4)

1--S. Crawford (10/1)

1--Tim Easterby (4/6*)

1--James Ewart (11/10*)

1--Jim Goldie (12/1)

1--Phil Kirby (5/1)

1--Ferdy Murphy (16/1)

1--David Pipe (9/4**)

1--Dianne Sayer (3/1)

25/28 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**)

3--David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8)

2--Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)

1--Maurice Barnes (9/4**)

1--George Bewley (6/4)

1--S. Coltherd (9/4)

1--S. Crawford (10/11)

1--Rose Dobbin (9/4)

1--Ian Jardine (10/11*)

1--J.J. Lambe (9/2)

1--Alan Swinbank (9/4**)

1--A.C. Whillans (7/5)

 

Sedgefield:

SEDGEFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sedgefield: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Sedgefield in 2013:

1--P. Atkinson (9/1)

1--S. Crawford (7/2*)

1--Mick Easterby (2/1)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (7/2)

1--W. Kinsey (15/8*)

1--Donald McCain (4/6*)

1--Tracy Waggott (25/1)

1/7 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Neil Mulholland (7/4 & 8/13)

1--Brian Ellison (6/4)

1--Richard Lee (6/5)

 

Kempton:

The sheer number of competitive races at Kempton makes it difficult to home in on ‘trends’, though the combined strike rate/level stake profits of Michael Mullineaux make for reasonable reading at sixteen and twenty respectively.  Michael held two entries on this card at the time of writing.  Although Michael has only saddled four winners in 2013, his figures remain (albeit marginally) ‘in the black’.

 

FRIDAY 22/02:

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sandown: 13

Favourite stats: 5 (38.5%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/4

 

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

3--Nicky Henderson (7/4-11/10*-9/4*)

1--Mrs F. J. Browne (2/1)

1--Vic Dartnell (14/1)

1--Philip Hobbs (11/10*)

1--Charlie Mann (12/1)

1--Gary Moore (20/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (7/4*)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/4)

1--Jeremy Scott (7/2)

1--Evan Williams (Evs*)

1--Venetia Williams (5/1)

10/13 winners sent off at odds of 5/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Nicky Henderson (5/2 & 4/7)

1--Mrs Jenny Gordon (15/8)

1--Emma Lavelle (10/11)

1--Paul Nicholls (1/3)

1--Jeremy Scott (10/3)

1--Nick Williams (11/4)

1--Venetia Williams (5/6)

 

Conditional jockeys event scheduled for 1.45: The last four winners have scored at 25/1-14/1-12/1-8/1 whilst just two favourites have won via the last nine renewals.  Seven-year-olds have secured five of the nine contests during the study period.

Class 3 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.20: Although only two favourites have prevailed via the last nine renewals, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at odds of 7/1.  Five of the last six winners carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Class 4 two mile novice hurdle scheduled for 2.55: Five-year-olds have secured six of the ten available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include three winners (10/1-17/2-2/1).  We still await the first successful favourite via four contests to date in which two market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 4 two and a half mile handicap hurdle qualifier scheduled for 4.00: Eight contests have slipped by since a winning favourite was recorded whilst five-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals.  Gary Moore and Lucy Wadham both held entries at the five day stage having secured two renewals apiece during the last seven years.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.30: Only one of the six favourites (via four renewals) has secured a toteplacepot position (no winners).

The biggest priced winner of the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.00) was returned at 13/2 via the last eight contests during which time, two favourites (11/4 & 7/4) have obliged. Paul Nicholls has saddled the last two renewals (when represented) with Marito Du Berlais being Paul’s only potential runner this time around.

 

Warwick:

WARWICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Warwick: 15

Favourite stats: 5 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/1

 

Trainers of winners at Warwick in 2013:

2--Tom George (11/2 & 2/1)

2--Nicky Henderson (7/4* & 9/4*)

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/1 & 1/2*)

1--Henry Daly (9/4*)

1--Warren Greatrex (12/1)

1--Alan King (Evs*)

1--Charlie Longsdon (12/1)

1--Pat Murphy (7/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (7/4)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (7/1)

1--Colin Tizzard (14/1)

1--Venetia Williams (5/1)

12/15 gold medallists were returned at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Jonjo O'Neill (10/3 & 3/1)

1--Andrew Balding (2/1)

1--Tom George (4/1)

1--Martin Keighley (7/2)

1--Emma Lavelle (6/5)

1--Charlie Longsdon (7/2)

1--Paul Nicholls (11/10)

1--David Pipe (10/3)

1--Venetia Williams (7/2)

Class 4 novice hurdle qualifying event scheduled for 2.00: Six of the last eight winners have scored at odds of 11/4 or less, stats which include three winning favourites.  Four six-year-olds have won during the study period and with 39% of the five day entries potentially representing the vintage, the ratio could be improved upon this time around.

Three mile novice chase event scheduled for 3.15: The biggest priced winner via four renewals to date was returned at 4/1, statistics which include two successful favourites at 6/4 and 11/8.

The last eight winners of this juvenile hurdle event (scheduled for 4.20) have scored at odds of 7/2 or less, stats which include four successful market leaders.

 

Lingfield:

Two of the last five runners saddled by Charlie Hills have won and his record at Lingfield suggests that further winners will come his way, sooner rather than later.  Charlie’s 24% strike rate at Lingfield is backed up by five points of level stake profits.

 

Wolverhampton:

Stuart Williams is enjoying a purple patch and no mistake and his 26% ratio makes for good reading at Dunstall Park during the last five years, especially when backed up by an LSP reading of twenty two points.

 

SATURDAY 23/02:

Chepstow:

CHEPSTOW NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Chepstow: 14

Favourite stats: 6 (42.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Chepstow in 2013:

1--Rebecca Curtis (7/2)

1--Vic Dartnell (9/2)

1--John Ferguson (10/3)

1--Mark Gillard (9/4*)

1--Martin Keighley (7/2)

1--Neil Mulholland (6/4*)

1--Seamus Mullins (28/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (10/11*)

1--David Pipe (5/1**)

1--Jeremy Scott (6/4**)

1--Michael Scudamore (10/1)

1--Mark Sheppard (6/4*)

1--Colin Tizzard (9/2)

1--Venetia Williams (7/1)

13/14 winners scored at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Paul Nicholls (7/4-9/4-11/4)

2--Rebecca Curtis (11/8 & 11/4)

1--Philip Hobbs (6/4**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (5/1**)

1--Fergal O'Brien (3/1**)

1--David Pipe (5/2)

1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)

1--Venetia Williams (10/11*)

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.35: Six-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals whilst three favourites have obliged.  Five of the last six winners have scored at odds of 3/1 or less.

 

Kempton (NH):

KEMPTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Kempton: 21

Favourite stats: 6 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/5

 

Trainers of winners at Kempton in 2013:

6--Nicky Henderson (5/1-3/10*-3/1*-13/2-13/2-6/1)

2--A. King (4/5* & 5/1)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (5/2** & 9/1)

1--Noel Chance (6/1)

1--Zoe Davison (4/1)

1--Charlie Egerton (12/1)

1--Harry Fry (12/1)

1--Warren Greatrex (3/1)

1--Caroline Keevil (9/4*)

1--Gary Moore (10/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (7/1)

1--Jamie Poulton (11/2)

1--Paul Webber (9/1)

1--Evan Williams (7/2*)

19/21 winners scored at a top price of 10/1, the two gold medallists have been returned at 12/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

6--Paul Nicholls (9/2-5/4-2/1-7/4**-10/11-3/1)

2--Alan King (4/1 & 11/10)

2--Donald McCain (5/4 & 9/4)

1--Ben Case (3/1)

1--Nicky Henderson (5/2**)

1--Susan Nock (4/1)

1--Martin Keighley (4/9)

1--Charlie Longsdon (2/1)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (5/6

1--Tim Vaughan (7/4**)

Cristal Bonus was the only Paul Nicholls representative declared at the penultimate entry stage last year and the horse went on to record a victory at 15/8, the trainer’s sixth winner of the ‘Pendil‘ (scheduled for 1.30 this year) in the last seven years.  Market leaders (of one description or another) have won five of the last six contests.

Grade 2 juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 2.05: Nicky Henderson leads Paul Nicholls 3-2 via the last six renewals, whilst eight of the last nine winners have been returned at odds of 9/2 or less, statistics which include five successful market leaders.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Seven-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer, whilst eight-year-olds had won three of the previous four renewals.  Horses carrying weights of 11-4 or more have won seven of the last nine contests, whilst favourites have secured six renewals during the last decade.

Grade 2 ‘Dovecote’ event scheduled for 3.15: Only two favourites have won via eight contests during the last decade, whilst three of the last four renewals were secured by four-year-olds. Alan King held three entries at the time of writing, given that the trainer has saddled three of the last seven winners.

Grade 3 three mile handicap chase event scheduled for 3.50: Only one of the last nine favourites has prevailed (4/1) though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 11/1 which in a competitive race like this, is a decent enough record.  Philip Hobbs held two entries for the race earlier in the week in a race in which the trainer boasts a fine (each way) record.

 

Newcastle:

NEWCASTLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Newcastle: 14

Favourite stats: 8 (57.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

Trainers of winners at Newcastle in 2013:

3--John Wade (6/5*-15/8*-5/2*)

2--Neil Alexander (1/2* & 7/2)

1--Tristram Davidson (7/1)

1--James Ewart (6/4*)

1--Joanne Foster (6/1)

1--Tom Gretton (9/2)

1--David Pipe (8/11*)

1--Keith Reveley (5/2)

1--Nicky Richards (6/4*)

1--Lucinda Russell (3/1)

1--Sharon Watt (Evs*)

All fourteen winners scored at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--James Ewart (2/1)

1--Chris Grant (7/2)

1--John Norton (11/4)

1--David O'Meara (13/8)

1--Martin Todhunter (9/4)

1--Donald Whillans (5/2)

‘Eider Chase’ scheduled for 2.55: The last eight gold medallists carried 11-0 or more in this marathon contest which is a rare statistic to offer over an extreme distance.

 

Lingfield:

Three of Jo Crowley’s four entries this week are at Lingfield where the trainer boasts a level stake profit of sixty four points in recent years.

 

SUNDAY 24/02:

Fontwell:

Two and three quarter mile novice chase scheduled for 2.40: Four of the five favourites have obliged but don’t take too much for granted as the market leader which ‘missed out’ was a Paul Nicholls representative which was sent off at 1/4!

Grade 2 ‘National Spirit Hurdle’ scheduled for 3.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more during which time, four favourites obliged.  The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was an 8/1 chance, whilst David Pipe and Alan King have both saddled two ‘recent’ winners.

‘Foxhunters Trial’ scheduled for 4.20: Ten of the eleven winners were returned at 5/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.

Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the last six renewals of the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.20) during which time, two favourites (9/4 & 7/4) have prevailed.

 

Towcester:

TOWESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Towcester: 7

Favourite stats: 5 (71.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/3

 

Trainers of winners at Towcester in 2013:

2--Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 8/13*)

1--Tony Carroll (9/1)

1--Donald McCain (4/5*)

1--David Pipe (7/4*)

1--Jamie Snowdon (7/1)

1--Venetia Williams (3/1*)

All seven winners sent off at a top price of 9/1

Well I Declare: 12th to 17th February 2013

Well I Declare: 12th to 17th February 2013

Well I Declare: 12th to 17th February 2013

Since last Tuesday (including 5th February), 66 A/W races have been contested, of which 25 (37.9%) have been won by favourites of one kind or another.

The leading A/W trainers during the period read as follows (minimum of three winners):

8--David Evans (8/1-7/1-5/1-9/2**-10/3-3/1*-11/8*-11/10*)

4--Michael Appleby (8/1-4/1-11/4-4/5*)

3--Stuart Williams (6/1-5/1-7/2**)

Others of note:

2--Roy Bowring (11/1 & 5/1)

2--Anthony Carson (5/1 & 6/4*)

2--Chris Dwyer (8/1 & 4/1)

2--Shaun Harris (14/1 & 12/1)

2--Phil Hiatt (7/1 & 11/4)

2--Reg Hollinshead (9/1 & 11/4)

2--Mark Johnston (8/1 & 13/8**)

Recent statistics for the individual venues can be found in the day by day analysis section.

 

Leading NH Trainers in February (2013 totals in brackets):

12/35--Nicky Henderson (2013 in total: 23/83)

9/37--Paul Nicholls (18/85)

8/35--David Pipe (21/96)

7/28--Venetia Williams (22/91)

5/40--Jonjo O'Neill (13/119)

4/42--Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/84)

4/22--Evan Williams (7/46)

3/7--Nick Alexander (5/26)

3/10--John Ferguson (7/22)

3/5--Harry Fry (6/11)

3/12--Oliver Sherwood (5/29)

3/25--Sue Smith (5/36)

2/7--Claire Dyson (2/17)

2/7--Kim Bailey (3/19)

2/11--Rebecca Curtis (6/29)

2/10--Henry Daly (6/27)

2/12--Warren Greatrex (4/30)

2/5--Lawney Hill (3/14)

2/25--Alan King (9/68)

2/11--Richard Lee (4/27)

2/22--Charlie Longsdon (4/58)

2/35--Donald McCain (13/103)

2/15--Colin Tizzard (6/48)

2/19--Tim Vaughan (6/59)

2/13--John Wade (4/33)

 

Trainers of winning favourites in February (two or more):

7--Nicky Henderson (7/12)

7--Paul Nicholls (7/13)

6--David Pipe (6/7)

5--Venetia Williams (5/8)

2--Rebecca Curtis (2/5)

2--John Ferguson (2/3)

2--Harry Fry (2/2)

2--Donald McCain (2/9)

2--Sue Smith (2/4)

2--Tim Vaughan (2/3)

2--John Wade (2/2)

2--Evan Williams (2/2)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites who have yet to saddle a successful market leader in February (two or more):

4--Philip Hobbs

3--Charlie Longsdon

3--Lucinda Russell

2--James Ewart

2--Tom George

2--Chris Grant

2--Martin Keighley

2--Tom Symonds

2--Nick Williams

 

Day by day analysis:

 

TUESDAY 12/02:

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ayr: 21

Favourite stats: 9 (42.9% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/6 (50.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013 (two or more):

5--Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2)

4--D. McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*)

3--J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1)

2--D. Whillans (11/4* & 13/2)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (two or more):

3--D. McCain (11/8-13/8-9/4**)

2--D. Pipe (4/6 & 8/11)

 

Lingfield (NH):

LINGFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Lingfield: 27

Favourite stats: 9 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/10

 

Trainers of winners at Lingfield in 2013 (two or more):

2--G. Baker (6/4* & 5/2*)

2--M. Channon (13/8 & 16/1)

2--Gary Moore (8/1 & 11/4)

2--P. Phelan (7/2 & 4/7*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (two or more):

3--N. Henderson (13/8--4/7--5/4)

2--T. Vaughan (4/11 & 4/6)

 

Southwell:

Stats from the last three A/W meetings at Southwell:

Number of races: 21

Successful market leaders (includes joint and co favourites): 8 (38.1%)

20/21 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less

Trainers of winners (Minimum of two):

4--Michael Appleby (8/1-4/1-11/4-4/5*)

2--John Butler (7/1 & 8/15*)

2--David Evans (7/1 & 5/1)

2--Roger Varian (1/12* & 1/2*)

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WEDNESDAY 13/02:

Musselburgh:

MUSSELBURGH NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Musselburgh: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Musselburgh in 2013 (two or more):

2--B. Ellison (7/1 & 5/1)

2--D Pipe (3/1* & 6/4*)

2--Venetia Williams (7/2 & 9/4*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (two or more):

3--D. McCain (5/2-4/9-11/10)

 

Kempton:

Stats from the last four A/W (flat) meetings at Kempton:

Number of races: 30

Successful market leaders (includes joint and co favourites): 8 (26.7%)

26/30 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

Trainers of winners (minimum of two):

3--Marco Botti (7/2-9/4**-7/4)

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3--Ron Harris (12/1-9/1-6/1)

2--Charlie Hills (8/13* & 4/6*)

 

Lingfield:

Stats from the last four A/W meetings at Lingfield:

Number of races: 31

Successful market leaders (includes joint and co favourites): 13 (41.9%)

29/31 winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less

Trainers of winners (minimum of two):

3--David Evans (9/2**-11/4-11/10*)

3--Roger Ingram (7/1-9/2*-9/4)

3--Stuart Williams (6/1-5/1-7/2**)

2--Milton Bradley (7/1 & 7/2*)

 

Wednesday’s other meeting is Southwell (A/W)

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THURSDAY 14/02:

Fontwell:

Two and three-quarter mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.20: Three of the seven renewals during the last decade have been won by favourites, with five market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.  All seven winners were aged between seven and nine, whilst five gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 10-13.

Two and a quarter-mile NH novice hurdle event due to be contested at 2.50:  The first six renewals slipped by without a successful market leader before the last (2011) favourite obliged at 4/7.  Nick Gifford has saddled two winners of the contest and the trainer was double-handed at the five-day stage.

Class 4 two and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.50: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals, whilst five of the seven winners in total carried weights of 11-1 or more to victory.

Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 in the closing Bumper event which is scheduled for 4.50.  Favourites have won three of the five contests whilst four gold medallists were returned at odds of 4/1 or less.

 

Kelso:

KELSO NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Kelso: 7

Favourite stats: 1 (14.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Kelso in 2013:

1--G. Bewley (8/1)

1--C. Grant (5/1)

1--Ferdy Murphy (5/2)

1--J. O'Shea (11/4

1--N. Richards (7/4)

1--T. Walford (8/11*)

1--J. Walton (10/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (two or more):

2--D. McCain (Evs & 1/4)

 

Leicester:

LEICESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Leicester: 13

Favourite stats: 9 (69.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

 

Trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013 (two or more):

3--T. George (7/1-1/4*-13/8*)

2--J. Ferguson (6/5* & 8/11*)

2--Venetia Williams (2/1* & 3/1*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--M. Blake (2/1)

1--A. King (10/11)

1--D. Pipe (15/8)

1--O. Sherwood (9/4)

 

Two mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: Just one (joint) favourite has scored via seven renewals.  Five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-6 thus far.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.30: Two favourites have won via nine renewals during the last decade, with six-year-olds coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

Hunter chase event scheduled for 3.00: Four of the six renewals have seen secured by favourites whilst one of the other two gold medallist was returned at 3/1.  All six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Novice chase (half a furlong short of three miles) contest scheduled for 4.00: Only two of the five market leaders (both winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far via four renewals.

Class 5 handicap chase event scheduled for 4.30: We still await the first successful market leader following seven contests, whilst the last five winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-3.  Five of the last six gold medallists scored at 25/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-11/1.

 

Thursday’s other meeting is Southwell (A/W)

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FRIDAY 15/02:

Fakenham:

FAKENHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fakenham: 6

Favourite stats: 1 (16.7% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None

 

Trainers of winners at Fakenham in 2013:

1--P. Henderson (7/1)

1--Lawney Hill (2/1)

1--N. King (3/1)

1--Renee Robeson (11/2)

1--O. Sherwood (15/2)

1--T. Vaughan (6/5*)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites (two or more):

2--A. Hales (6/4 & 11/8)

 

Selling handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.10: Six renewals have passed by without a successful favourite being recorded, whilst 66/1 and 16/1 winners were recorded during the period.

Beginner’s Chase scheduled for 1.40: Three of the last five favourites have obliged, whilst the biggest priced winner to date via seven contests was returned at 7/1.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle race scheduled for 3.20: Five clear market leaders and one co favourite have won via eight contests, the biggest priced winners having scored at 5/1.  Five and six-year-olds have equally shared six of the eight contests to date.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.45: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won five of the last six renewals.

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sandown: 6

Favourite stats: 1 (16.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/2

 

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

1--N. Henderson (7/4)

1--C. Mann (12/1)

1--Gary Moore (20/1)

1--J. Scott (7/2)

1--Evan Williams (Evs*)

1--Venetia Williams (5/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--N. Henderson (5/2)

1--Emma Lavelle (10/11)

1--P. Nicholls (1/3)

1--J. Scott (10/3)

1--N. Williams (11/4)

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.50: The last seven winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more.

Six of the last ten renewals of the ‘Royal Artillery’ (scheduled for 3.00) have been won by favourites during which time, eight gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 7/2.

Novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Six-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests.

 

Wolverhampton:

Stats from the last four A/W meetings at Wolverhampton:

Number of races: 30

Successful market leaders (includes joint and co favourites): 11 (36.7%)

25/30 winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less

Trainers of winners (Minimum of two):

3--David Evans (8/1-10/3-3/1*)

2--Roy Bowring (11/1 & 5/1)

2--Reg Hollinshead (9/1 & 11/4)

2--Bill Turner (4/6* & 7/4)

 

Friday’s other meeting is at Lingfield:

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SATURDAY 16/02:

Ascot:

Grade 1 Betfair Chase (scheduled for 3.50): Market leaders have secured six of the last seven renewals.

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the three winners to date.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.00: Nicky Henderson has secured four of the last seven contests.

 

Haydock:

‘Victor Ludorum’ scheduled for 1.45: Favourites have secured the last six renewals of this Class 2 event.

Favourites had failed to land a blow in the Grand National trial since 2002 until last year’s 4/1 market leader obliged (scheduled for 2.50).

Six-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the ‘Albert Bartlett’ which is scheduled for 3.25.

Class 3 Novice handicap chase event scheduled for 4.05: Winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence via seven contests thus far.

 

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Wincanton: 18

Favourite stats: 7 (38.9%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 3/4

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013 (two or more):

3--T. George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*)

2--D. Pipe (5/6* & 10/1)

2--N. Twiston-Davies (11/4* & 12/1)

Trainers of beaten favourites (two or more):

3--P. Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1)

2--P. Hobbs (Evs & 11/10)

2--C. Tizzard (5/2** & 7/2**)

2--D. Pipe (7/2 & 7/2**)

 

Class 3, two and three-quarter mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Five of the last six winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Grade 2 ‘Kingwell Hurdle’ scheduled for 3.35: Nine of the last ten winners have been returned at odds of 9/2 or less, stats which include five successful market leaders.

 

Saturday’s other meeting is Lingfield (A/W)

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SUNDAY 17/02:

Ffos Las:

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 7

Favourite stats: 0 (0.00%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/1

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

2--Rebecca Curtis (11/2 & 4/1)

2--Evan Williams (7/1 & 7/2)

1--Kim Bailey (4/1)

1--J.J. O'Neill (9/2)

1--D. Pipe (3/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/6)

1--P. Bowen (11/4**)

1--Keiran Burke (7/2)

1--Rebecca Curtis (11/4)

1--Jackie Du Plessis (9/4)

1--Sue Gardner (7/2)

1--J.J. O'Neill (11/8)

1--M. Scudamore (11/4**)

 

Market Rasen:

MARKET RASEN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Market Rasen: 7

Favourite stats: 4 (57.1%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

Trainers of winners at Market Rasen in 2013:

1--Alan Brown (20/1)

1--Mrs Edward Crow (20/1)

1--Henry Daly (4/1)

1--John Ferguson (1/2*)

1--Donal McCain (10/11*)

1--Tim Vaughan (7/4*)

1--Lucy Wadham (9/4**)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Jonjo O'Neill (7/2** & 11/4)

1--Mick Channon (7/2**)

1--Charlie Longsdon (9/4**)

1--Mrs C. Robinson (11/8)