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Well I Declare : 18th March 2013

Well I Declare: 18th March

Well I Declare: 18th March

Mondays are generally low key affairs and today is no exception. We do, however, still have three meetings taking place (covering both NH and A/W) on...
...MONDAY 18/03:

Southwell (NH):

SOUTHWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Southwell: 14

Favourite stats: 5 (35.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Southwell in 2013:

2--Keith Reveley (3/1 & 11/8*)

1--Caroline Bailey (13/8*)

1--Jennie Candlish (9/2)

1--Robin Dickin (12/1)

1--P.W. Flynn (6/1)

1--Tom George (15/8**)

1--Ed De Giles (7/1)

1--Steve Gollings (1/2*)

1--Warren Greatrex (7/2)

1--Paul Nicholls (5/4*)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/2)

1--David Pipe (4/1)

1--Peter Pritchard (12/1)

12/14 winners to date were returned at odds of 7/1 or less, the other gold medallists being sent off at 12/1.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Tony Caroll (4/1 & 5/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (15/8 & 9/4)

1--Warren Greatrex (6/5)

1--Alan King (5/1**)

1--Graeme McPherson (4/6)

1--Oliver Sherwood (4/5)

1--Mike Sowersby (7/2)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4)

1--Lucy Wadham (15/8**)

All seven favourites finished in the frame (exact science) at last year’s corresponding fixture when the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1 (three successful favourites on the card at 6/4-11/8-5/4).

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Market leaders boast a 34% strike rate in three-year-old handicap events at Lingfield in recent times, four ‘spots’ better than equivalent events for older horses at the venue.

 

Kempton:

Although no successful market leaders were recorded, a top priced winner of 11/1 emerged during last year’s relevant meeting.  Successful trainers: Phil McEntee (9/1), Peter Chapple-Hyam (4/1), Peter Hiatt (11/1), Kevin Morgan (3/1), Tom Keddy (13/2), Chris Gordon (11/1) and John Weymes (10/1).

Beaten favourites on the card were saddled by Andrew Balding (9/4 & 11/8), John Best (5/4), Willie Musson (15/8), Mark Johnston (4/1), Robin Dickin (11/4) and Julia Fielden (11/4).

Well I Declare : 17th March 2013

Well I Declare: 17th March

Well I Declare: 17th March

Carlisle and Lingfield host today's UK racing, here's a brief overview on what to expect for...
...SUNDAY 17/03:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Carlisle: 12

Favourite stats: 3 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

1--Neil Alexander (9/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (12/1)

1--Tony Coyle (13/2)

1--Brian Ellison (11/4)

1--Chris Grant (5/2)

1--Philip Kirby (22/1)

1--Barry Murtagh (11/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--Dianne Sayer (16/1)

1--Nicky Richards (1/8*)

1--Tim Vaughan (8/11*)

1--Venetia Williams (15/8*)

9/12 winners scored at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)

1--George Charlton (3/1**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1***)

1--Tom Gretton (7/2)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (9/4)

1--Charlie Longsdon (Evs)

1--Donald McCain (4/9)

1--Noel Kelly (4/9)

1--John Norton (4/1***)

1--Sue Smith (4/1***)

Lucinda Russell took the training honours at last year’s corresponding meeting when securing a 13/2 double (2/1* & 6/4).  Other winners on the day were saddled by George Bewley (11/10*), Brian Ellison (7/2*), Venetia Williams (4/5*) and Mark Hughes (Evens*).  The bookmakers went home with their collective tails between their legs!

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Favourites boast a 48% record in three-year-old non handicap races at Lingfield during the last five years.

Well I Declare : 16th March 2013

Well I Declare: 16th March

Well I Declare: 16th March

Some of you might be needing a bit of a rest after four exhilarating days of top-class racing from Cheltenham, bu tfor those of us still needing their Saturday racing fix, here's the detail of the action scheduled for...


...SATURDAY 16/03:

Ffos Las:

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 14

Favourite stats: 3 (21.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

3--Rebecca Curtis (11/2-4/1-16/1)

2--Evan Williams (7/1 & 7/2)

1--Kim Bailey (4/1)

1--S.L. Bevan (5/1)

1--Tom George (3/1**)

1--Nicky Henderson (4/9*)

1--B. Llewellyn (66/1)

1--Neil Mullholland (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--David Pipe (3/1)

1--Nick Williams (4/1)

12/14 winners were sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

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1--Kim Bailey (5/6)

1--Michael Blake (9/4)

1--Peter Bowen (11/4**)

1--Keiran Burke (7/2)

1--Rebecca Curtis (11/4)

1--Jackie Du Plessis (9/4)

1--David Evans (3/1**)

1--John Flint (5/4)

1--Sue Gardner (7/2)

1--Debra Hamer (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/8)

1--Charlie Longsdon (5/4)

1--Paul Nicholls (4/6*)

1--Michael Scudamore (11/4**)

 

Kempton:

Latest stats from the ‘ton up riders club’ at Kempton during the last five years: Jim Crowley: 127/863--Luke Morris: 119/966--Adam Kirby: 107/732

 

Lingfield:

Joe Fanning remains the jockey to keep an eye on when riding down south at Lingfield, Joe having ridden seventy-eight winners which have amassed the same number of points regarding Joe’s level stake profits at the venue in recent times.

 

Uttoxeter:

UTTOXETER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Uttoxeter: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Uttoxeter in 2013:

1--Dai Burchell (16/1)

1--Tony Carroll (12/1)

1--Rebecca Curtis (Evs*)

1--Linda Siddall (16/1)

1--Harry Whittington (Evs*)

1--Evan Williams (15/8*)

1--Nick Williams (11/4)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/2)

1--Henry Day (4/1)

1--Anthony Middleton (7/2)

1--Tom Symonds (5/4)

Nine of the last ten winners of the Midlands Grand National (scheduled to be contested at 3.20) have carried weights of 10-9 or less.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the study period.

Three mile novice handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last ten contests.  Seven renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was registered.

 

Wolverhampton:

Favourites in non handicap events at Dunstall Park accounted for 43% of victories in non handicap events during the last five years, the ratio dropping to just 31% in races in which the handicapper had written the terms and conditions of the relevant races.

Well I Declare : 15th March 2013

Well I Declare: 15th March

Well I Declare: 15th March

It's the grand finale of this year's Cheltenham Festival today and there's aslo action at Fakenham, Lingfield and Wolverhampton on...


...FRIDAY 15/03:

Cheltenham Day 4:

1.30--Triumph Hurdle: Four of the last fourteen favourites have obliged which not a bad record considering the competitive nature of this opening event.  Nine market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.  Irish trainers have not lifted this prize since 2002, with Philip Hobbs (2/10), Paul Nicholls (2/14), Alan King (2/20) and Nicky Henderson (2/13) all having trained two winners during the study period.

2.05--County hurdle: Although backed up by only six placed representatives in the last thirteen contests, five-year-olds have won this competitive event no less than eight times during the period.  Forty of the last fifty winners hailed from the five and six-year-old vintages which should sway you towards younger horses in the contest.  Horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-1 have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals.

2.40--’Albert Bartlett’: Favourites have won three of the eight renewals whilst market leaders have secured seven toteplacepot positions.  Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 4-3 to date.  Previous course winners account for half of the winners to date whilst the fill scoreboard reads: Britain: 5--Ireland: 2--France: 1.

3.20--Cheltenham Gold Cup: Six of the last ten market leaders have won the ‘Blue Riband’ with Kauto Star being a beaten favourite on two occasions.  Eight of the ten favourites finished in the frame.  Bobs Worth has won all six of his races when racing left-handed thus far, whilst his record at Cheltenham is 4/4.  The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to only have one outing during the season before the big race was Garrison Savannah back in 1991 who like Bobs Worth, had won the RSA Chase the previous season.  At the odds on offer at the time of writing (3/1), Bob’s Worth rates as my bet of the week.  Only the progressive Silviniaco Conti emerges as a danger from my viewpoint.

4.00--Foxhunters Chase: Three market leaders have won via the last fourteen contests, the figure increasing to seven during the period when taking the first three horses in the betting into account.  Four of the last seven winners have scored at 33/1 (twice) and 20/1 (twice).

4.40--’Martin Pipe’ Conditional: Two of the four favourites have finished in the money to date (one winner).  David Pipe has saddled two beaten favourites in the race which he is desperate to win for obvious reasons.

5.15--’Grand Annual’: Every winner during the last eleven years carried a maximum burden of 10-13, whilst eight gold medallists carried 10-7 or less.  Novices have a great record in the ‘Johnny Henderson’, whilst horses with decent each way form leading up to the race can be expected to figure prominently.  Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, whilst Nicky Henderson’s runners always demand respect in a race run in honour of his late father.  Nicky’s novice Tetlami would be my each way selection if the trainer chooses this race for his seven-year-old.

 

Fakenham:

FAKENHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fakenham: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

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Trainers of winners at Fakenham in 2013:

1--Mick Channon (10/11*)

1--Sean Curran (11/1)

1--Nicky Henderson (2/5*)

1--Paul Henderson (7/1)

1--Alan Hill (9/4*)

1--Lawney Hill (2/1)

1--Neil King (3/1)

1--Anabel K. Murphy (3/1)

1--David Pipe (10/1)

1--Renee Robeson (11/2)

1--Oliver Sherwood (15/2)

1--Tim Vaughan (6/5*)

1--Lucy Wadham (9/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Alex Hales (6/4 & 11/8)

1--Mick Channon (2/1)

1--Ed Dunlop (2/1**)

1--John Ferguson (2/1**)

1--Polly Gundry (15/8)

1--Renee Robeson (11/8)

1--Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1--David Thompson (11/10)

1--Venetia Williams (7/4)

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35 over the minimum trip: Six-year-olds have won four of the last six (and six of the last eleven) contests.  Four favourites have obliged in the last ten years.

Foxhunters event due to be contested at 4.15: Five favourites have prevailed via the last ten contests, nine winners of which started at 9/2 or less.  Nine-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 4.55: The biggest priced winner in this event via the last ten contests before last year’s 33/1 shocker was returned at just 4/1, statistics which included four successful market leaders during the last six years.  Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals.

 

Lingfield:

The next potential William Jarvis runner is Laudation on this card, the trainer having saddled two gold and one silver medallist via his last three representatives.  Williams boasts an LSP reading of twenty-four points at Lingfield via an 18% strike rate during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

John Gosden held a couple of entries at Wolverhampton this week at the time of writing, with the trainer offering a 27% ratio in recent times.

Well I Declare : 14th March 2013

Well I Declare: 14th March

Well I Declare: 14th March

So, we're already at the midway point of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival, but there's another day of top-class action scheduled today. We've all the details of those races alongside the meetings planned for Hexham, Towcester and Wolverhampton on...


...THURSDAY 14/03:

Cheltenham Day 3:

1.30--’Jewson’ Novice Chase: An exceptionally ‘good NH judge’ expects a first-rate showing from Third Intention in this event, though as expressed on Sunday evening, ‘Joe’ was less than happy at the decision for Dynaste to contest this event rather than the RSA which had seemingly been the target not so long so.  Colin Tizzard’s raider should still reward each way investors with a decent run for their collective monies however.

2.05--‘Pertemps Final’: The last nine favourites have been beaten with just one market leader finishing in the frame.  Going back further in time, only one favourite has prevailed during the last sixteen years, whilst seven of the last nine gold medallists carried weights of 10-9 or less as have twenty-six of the thirty-six horses to have secured toteplacepot/each way positions during the period.  Only one five-year-old winner has been recorded in the last thirty-eight years.  Cape Tribulation was the third eight-year-old winner twelve months ago via the last six renewals.  David Pipe has saddled two of the last three winners, albeit Buena Vista won both events.

2.40--Ryanair Chase: Albertas Run has two gold and one silver medal to his name in this race though the ground (best on a sound surface) might have gone against him this time around.  Only two favourites have prevailed via eight contests though that said, seven of the winners scored at odds of 6/1 or less. Twenty four Irish raiders have tried and failed to win this contest.  Nicky Henderson (responsible for both successful favourites), Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls all have two winners to their name, the other successful trainers being David Pipe and Nigel Twiston-Davies.

3.20--World Hurdle: Eight favourites have won via the last eighteen contests during which time, thirteen gold medallists emerged from the front three horses in the betting.  The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at 8/1.  Get Me Out Of Here has finished runner-up in all three Cheltenham Festival assignments thus far.  Beaten a head in the ‘Supreme’ in 2010, GMOOH fell victim to a minimum margin defeat (nose) twelve months later (County Hurdle) before securing the silver medal again in the ultra competitive Coral Cup last year.  If any horses deserves to score at the Cheltenham Festival this year, Get Me Out Of Here is the beast!

4.00--Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate:  Last year’s successful market leader was only the second favourite to oblige during the last twenty-nine years.  Although eight-year-olds have ‘only’ won four of the last fourteen renewals, vintage representatives have secured twenty-three of the last forty-three available toteplacepot/each way positions.  Horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-10 have won eight of the last ten renewals.

4.40--’Kim Muir’ Chase: Nine-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen contests whilst claiming twenty-one of the last available forty-eight toteplacepot/each way positions.  Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been secured by horses carrying 10-13 or more, as have thirty-four of the last forty-seven available toteplacepot positions.  Ferdy Murphy’s Cheltenham record with his outsiders stands up almost as well as any other trainer, especially if you take the Nicky Henderson out of the equation.  Riguez Dancer could go well at rewarding odds, whilst other stable representatives this week to keep on a back burner include Going Wrong, De Boitron and Poker Di Sivola

 

Hexham:

Class 4 novice hurdle event due to be contested at 2.55: Three of the five market leaders have prevailed (5/6-5/6-10/11), the other market leaders having secured silver medals.  Six-year-olds have won three contests whilst all five winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Just one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, horses carrying weights of 11-2 or less have secured eight contests.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last ten contests have been secured by market leaders, with seven-year-olds leading the eight-year-olds 5-3 during the period.  Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: The last eight winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones, whilst just one favourite has obliged during the last decade.

 

Towcester:

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TOWCESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Towcester: 13

Favourite stats: 6 (46.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/4

 

Trainers of winners at Towcester in 2013:

2--Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 8/13*)

2--David Pipe (7/4* & 1/2*)

1--Kevin Bishop (11/2)

1--David Bridgwater (11/2)

1--Tony Carroll (9/1)

1--Claire Dyson (5/1)

1--Caroline Keevil (9/2)

1--Donald McCain (4/5*)

1--Jamie Snowdon (7/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1--Venetia Williams (3/1*)

All thirteen winners sent off at a top price of 9/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kate Buckett (3/1)

1--Sarah Jane Davies (5/2)

1--Robin Duickin (9/4)

1--John Ferguson (15/8)

1--Sophie Leech (9/4)

1--Michael Roberts (11/4)

1--Richard Woolacott (11/4)

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Six-year-olds have secured five of the seven contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 (four successful market leaders).

Three mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.30: Three clear and two joint favourites have prevailed via seven renewals.

Class 4 two-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst four of the last five favourites secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one winner.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 5.35: The last five winners have scored at 16/1--14/1--12/1--15/2--7/2 following the successful inaugural (5/4) market leader back in 2004.

 

Wolverhampton:

Gerard Butler’s only two entries this week at the time of writing were at this venue, where Gerard boasts fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 24% strike rate in recent years.

Well I Declare : 13th March 2013

Well I Declare: 13th March

Well I Declare: 13th March

Today is Day 2 of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival and we've full details of today's races from Prestbury Park, as well as the action scheduled for Huntingdon, Kempton and Southwell on...

...WEDNESDAY 13/03:

Cheltenham Day 2:

1.30--4 mile NH Chase: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests whilst just three favourites have prevailed in the last eighteen years.  Horses in the first three in the betting have a poor record in the race.  Fifty four relevant horses have lined up during the study period producing six winners and ten place positions, leaving thirty-eight representatives finishing out with the washing.

2.05--2 mile 5 furlong Grade 1 ‘Baring Bingham (Neptune)’: Five and six-year-olds have secured sixteen of the last eighteen renewals of this event, securing an additional thirty-one toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having secured four of the last six renewals.  Six favourites have won during the period though the figure only extends to nine when taking the first three market leaders into account.

2.40--RSA Chase: Seven-year-olds rule supreme in the ‘Sun Alliance’ having won thirteen of the last eighteen contests.  Vintage representative has secured an additional sixteen toteplacepot positions down the years for good measure.  Only five favourites have won during the study period and just eight when extending the stats by taking the first three horses in the betting into account in the relevant races.  Irish runners have won three of the last four contests, whilst Willie Mullins has trained two winners and two placed horses during the last decade via fifteen representatives.

3.20--Queen Mother Champion Chase: Ten of the last thirteen winners of the ‘Queen Mother’ have emerged from the front three horses in the betting, whilst five favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals.  If you fancy taking Sprinter Scare on, it’s worth noting that nine-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer. To pour further fuel on the potential flames, Sprinter Sacre is attempting to become only the fourth seven-year-old winner since 1970, the last relevant gold medallist being Azertyuiop back in 2004.

4.00--Coral Cup: Ten of the last twelve winners of the Coral Cup have carried weights of eleven stones or less whilst just one favourite has scored since 1993.  Only four winners have emerged during the period from the front three horses in the market during the study period.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals.

4.40--’Fred Winter’: Two favourites have won via just eight renewals, though readers should be aware that other gold medallists have prevailed at odds of 40/1-40/1-20/1-14/1-11/1-9/1.  Seven of the eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4, whilst fillies have secured half of the contests thus far.

5.15--’Championship Bumper’: Five-year-olds have secured six renewals during the last decade.  The market used to be a decent guide but it is as well to digest the fact that seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite was successful, recent winners having scored at 40/1-33/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-11/2-9/2.  Willie Mullins has saddled seven of Ireland’s fourteen winners in race which only has twenty renewals to its name.

 

Huntingdon:

HUNTINGDON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Huntingdon: 28

Favourite stats: 8 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

 

Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

6--N. Henderson (4/9*-4/7*-11/10*-11/10*-3/1-15/8)

2--Kim Bailey (8/1 & 7/1)

2--Henry Daly (10/1 & 9/1)

2--Paul Nicholls (4/5* & 4/9*)

Your first 30 days for just £1

2--Richard Phillips (8/1 & 16/1)

2--Oliver Sherwood (7/2 & 11/2)

1--David Arbuthnot (6/1)

1--Caroline Bailey (6/1)

1--Chris Down (25/1)

1--Warren Greatrex (5/1)

1--Diana Grissell (5/2*)

1--Martin Keighley (6/1)

1--Gary Moore (12/1)

1--John O'Neill (22/1)

1--A.E. Price (5/1)

1--T. Symonds (8/1)

1--Venetia Williams (9/2)

1--P. York (11/8*)

24/28 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Philip Hobbs (5/2-4/1-11/4)

3--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1-10/3-7/2)

3--Venetia Williams (11/4-5/2-7/2)

1--Roger Curtis (9/2)

1--Vic Dartnall (9/2)

1--John Ferguson (4/5)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Lawney Hill (7/2)

1--Brendan Powell (9/2**)

1--Jeremy Scott (9/2**)

1--Oliver Sherwood (3/1**)

1--Pam Sly (7/2)

1--Colin Tizzard (4/1)

1--Bill Turner (13/8)

1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)

1--Lucy Wadham (4/1**)

1--Nick Williams (4/1**)

Three mile handicap chase scheduled to be contested at 2.55: Just one clear and one co favourite has scored via eight renewals.  Other gold medallists were sent off at 25/1--20/1--16/1--10/1--8/1--7/2.  Four of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  It’s worth noting that the toteplacepot pools for the other meetings during Cheltenham Festival week also take a hike if you are interested in the wager.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35: Six-year-olds have secured three of the five contests.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst the same number of gold medallists started at odds of 7/1 or less (two winning favourites).

Four-year-olds come into the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.30) on a five timer.  Five favourites have scored during the last decade albeit, gold medallists have also prevailed at odds of 100/1 & 22/1.

 

Kempton:

Jockey John Fahy boasts an LSP figure of over sixty points at Kempton which should come as no great surprise to readers, given that 26% of John’s (119) winners during the last five years have been gained at this venue.

 

Southwell:

It would be typical of David Nicholls to saddle winners when the majority of punters were ‘looking the other way’ this week and his one hundred and sixty points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years merits plenty of consideration.

Well I Declare: 12th to 18th March 2013

Well I Declare: 12th to 18th March

Well I Declare: 12th to 18th March

Cheltenham Festival week witnesses the arrival of an additional day of coverage (next Monday) whereby the service will incorporate the whole week for here on in.

I should direct you towards a new bet which will be introduced by Tote Direct at Cheltenham on Tuesday, a wager which will be featured on all four days of the meeting, namely the SuperScoop6.

The really unusual feature of the wager is the build up to a “massive shootout” in November when clients who pick all six winners on any given day will qualify for the chance to win a monumental sum of money!

The bet will be available at all the Festival meetings throughout the year, though Tote Direct will not be offering the bet on a Saturday when the traditional form of the bet will remain in place.

Now onto the action, starting of course with...

TUESDAY 12/03 :

Cheltenham Day 1:

1.30--‘Supreme Novices‘:  Just three of the last nineteen favourites (seventeen year period) have won.  ‘First three in the betting’ trends are almost as disappointing as their last fifty-five representatives have secured eight victories and an additional fifteen places.  Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 7-6 during the study period.

2.05--‘Arkle’: Only seven of the last seventeen favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include just three successful favourites.  Overturn bids to become only the second nine-year-old to win this event since Sir Ken back in 1956.  The last nine-year-old winner was Danish Flight back in 1988.  Seven-year-olds (Simonsig is among their number this time around) have won seven of the last seventeen renewals via 41% of the total number of runners.

2.40--Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 3 miles:  Just one favourite has obliged via twenty-one representatives during the last seventeen years during which time, seven gold medallists have emerged via the front three horses in the betting.  Thirteen of the last fourteen winners carried 10-12 or less.

3.20--Champion Hurdle: Hurricane Fly bids to become the first horse to regain his crown since Comedy Of Errors back in 1975 whereby Zarkandar is preferred on this occasion, the Paul Nicholls raider having shown both speed and stamina in his make up to date.  Six and seven-year-olds have won twelve contests between them during the last seventeen years, notwithstanding an additional eighteen horses to have finished in the frame.  Hurricane Fly would be only the second nine-year-old winner in the last seventeen years, with only three of their twenty-three representatives having finished in the frame during the period.  Two five-year-olds line up but Katchit (2005) is the only junior representative to have won this event since See You Then won the first of his three successive victories back in 1985.  Home trained horses and Irish raiders have shared the last ten renewals between them.

4.00--Cross Country: The unique cross-country event was the first race to be added to the fixture in order to create a fourth day of the meeting back in 2005. The race has been won by an Irish trainer seven times, whilst favourites have won two of the eight contests to date (six of the other seven market leaders finished out of the frame).  Seven of the eight winners emerged from the front three in the betting.

4.40--‘David Nicholson Mares’: Quevega is fast becoming the queen of Prestbury Park and but for Big Buck’s hogging the limelight in recent years, the eight-year-old mare would have been the star of several shows, having won this race in each of the last four years.

5.15--Listed Novice Handicap Chase: Seven-year-olds have won six of the eight contests thus far during which time, two (132 & 9/2) favourites have prevailed.

 

Sedgefield:

SEDGEFIELD NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Sedgefield: 21

Favourite stats: 7 (33.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/2

 

Trainers of winners at Sedgefield in 2013:

2--S. Crawford (7/2* & 9/2)

2--Malcolm Jefferson (7/2 & 5/1)

2--William Kinsey (15/8* & 11/4)

1--P. Atkinson (9/1)

1--Rose Dobbin (16/1)

1--Mick Easterby (2/1)

1--James Ewart (7/4*)

1--Joanne Foster (3/1)

1--Steve Gollings (9/2)

1--Warren Greatrex (9/4*)

1--Ann Hamilton (8/1)

1--Phil Kirby (5/2*)

1--Donald McCain (4/6*)

1--M. Mullineaux (17/2)

1--Barry Murtagh (7/1)

1--Alan Swinbank (10/1)

1--John Wade (2/1*)

1--Tracy Waggott (25/1)

19/21 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Donald McCain (5/4-5/2-15/8)

2--Phil Kirby (5/2 & 11/10)

2--Neil Mulholland (7/4 & 8/13)

1--Brian Ellison (6/4)

1--John Ferguson (11/10)

1--Steve Gollings (5/2)

1--Richard Lee (6/5)

1--Ferdy Murphy (5/2)

1--Alan Swinbank (13/8)

1--Tim Walford (11/4)

 

Southwell:

With Cheltenham dominating our thoughts this week, it would be as well to consider David Barron’s potential three runners at Southwell (his last representative won at 4/1 at the time of writing) where David boasts a 25% strike rate during the last five years, an impressive ratio which is backed up by ninety-two points of level stake profits.

 

Wolverhampton:

Considering he has ridden well over two hundred horses at Dunstall Park during the study period, Nicky Macksy’s LSP reading of twenty right points makes for impressive reading.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WEDNESDAY 13/03:

Cheltenham Day 2:

1.30--4 mile NH Chase: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests whilst just three favourites have prevailed in the last eighteen years.  Horses in the first three in the betting have a poor record in the race.  Fifty four relevant horses have lined up during the study period producing six winners and ten place positions, leaving thirty-eight representatives finishing out with the washing.

2.05--2 mile 5 furlong Grade 1 ‘Baring Bingham (Neptune)’: Five and six-year-olds have secured sixteen of the last eighteen renewals of this event, securing an additional thirty-one toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having secured four of the last six renewals.  Six favourites have won during the period though the figure only extends to nine when taking the first three market leaders into account.

2.40--RSA Chase: Seven-year-olds rule supreme in the ‘Sun Alliance’ having won thirteen of the last eighteen contests.  Vintage representative has secured an additional sixteen toteplacepot positions down the years for good measure.  Only five favourites have won during the study period and just eight when extending the stats by taking the first three horses in the betting into account in the relevant races.  Irish runners have won three of the last four contests, whilst Willie Mullins has trained two winners and two placed horses during the last decade via fifteen representatives.

3.20--Queen Mother Champion Chase: Ten of the last thirteen winners of the ‘Queen Mother’ have emerged from the front three horses in the betting, whilst five favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals.  If you fancy taking Sprinter Scare on, it’s worth noting that nine-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer. To pour further fuel on the potential flames, Sprinter Sacre is attempting to become only the fourth seven-year-old winner since 1970, the last relevant gold medallist being Azertyuiop back in 2004.

4.00--Coral Cup: Ten of the last twelve winners of the Coral Cup have carried weights of eleven stones or less whilst just one favourite has scored since 1993.  Only four winners have emerged during the period from the front three horses in the market during the study period.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals.

4.40--’Fred Winter’: Two favourites have won via just eight renewals, though readers should be aware that other gold medallists have prevailed at odds of 40/1-40/1-20/1-14/1-11/1-9/1.  Seven of the eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4, whilst fillies have secured half of the contests thus far.

5.15--’Championship Bumper’: Five-year-olds have secured six renewals during the last decade.  The market used to be a decent guide but it is as well to digest the fact that seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite was successful, recent winners having scored at 40/1-33/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-11/2-9/2.  Willie Mullins has saddled seven of Ireland’s fourteen winners in race which only has twenty renewals to its name.

 

Huntingdon:

HUNTINGDON NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Huntingdon: 28

Favourite stats: 8 (28.6%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5

 

Trainers of winners at Huntingdon in 2013:

6--N. Henderson (4/9*-4/7*-11/10*-11/10*-3/1-15/8)

2--Kim Bailey (8/1 & 7/1)

2--Henry Daly (10/1 & 9/1)

2--Paul Nicholls (4/5* & 4/9*)

2--Richard Phillips (8/1 & 16/1)

2--Oliver Sherwood (7/2 & 11/2)

1--David Arbuthnot (6/1)

1--Caroline Bailey (6/1)

1--Chris Down (25/1)

1--Warren Greatrex (5/1)

1--Diana Grissell (5/2*)

1--Martin Keighley (6/1)

1--Gary Moore (12/1)

1--John O'Neill (22/1)

1--A.E. Price (5/1)

1--T. Symonds (8/1)

1--Venetia Williams (9/2)

1--P. York (11/8*)

24/28 winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Philip Hobbs (5/2-4/1-11/4)

3--Jonjo O'Neill (3/1-10/3-7/2)

3--Venetia Williams (11/4-5/2-7/2)

1--Roger Curtis (9/2)

1--Vic Dartnall (9/2)

1--John Ferguson (4/5)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Lawney Hill (7/2)

1--Brendan Powell (9/2**)

1--Jeremy Scott (9/2**)

1--Oliver Sherwood (3/1**)

1--Pam Sly (7/2)

1--Colin Tizzard (4/1)

1--Bill Turner (13/8)

1--Tim Vaughan (3/1**)

1--Lucy Wadham (4/1**)

1--Nick Williams (4/1**)

Three mile handicap chase scheduled to be contested at 2.55: Just one clear and one co favourite has scored via eight renewals.  Other gold medallists were sent off at 25/1--20/1--16/1--10/1--8/1--7/2.  Four of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  It’s worth noting that the toteplacepot pools for the other meetings during Cheltenham Festival week also take a hike if you are interested in the wager.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35: Six-year-olds have secured three of the five contests.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst the same number of gold medallists started at odds of 7/1 or less (two winning favourites).

Four-year-olds come into the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.30) on a five timer.  Five favourites have scored during the last decade albeit, gold medallists have also prevailed at odds of 100/1 & 22/1.

 

Kempton:

Jockey John Fahy boasts an LSP figure of over sixty points at Kempton which should come as no great surprise to readers, given that 26% of John’s (119) winners during the last five years have been gained at this venue.

 

Southwell:

It would be typical of David Nicholls to saddle winners when the majority of punters were ‘looking the other way’ this week and his one hundred and sixty points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years merits plenty of consideration.

 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THURSDAY 14/03:

Cheltenham Day 3:

1.30--’Jewson’ Novice Chase: An exceptionally ‘good NH judge’ expects a first-rate showing from Third Intention in this event, though as expressed on Sunday evening, ‘Joe’ was less than happy at the decision for Dynaste to contest this event rather than the RSA which had seemingly been the target not so long so.  Colin Tizzard’s raider should still reward each way investors with a decent run for their collective monies however.

2.05--‘Pertemps Final’: The last nine favourites have been beaten with just one market leader finishing in the frame.  Going back further in time, only one favourite has prevailed during the last sixteen years, whilst seven of the last nine gold medallists carried weights of 10-9 or less as have twenty-six of the thirty-six horses to have secured toteplacepot/each way positions during the period.  Only one five-year-old winner has been recorded in the last thirty-eight years.  Cape Tribulation was the third eight-year-old winner twelve months ago via the last six renewals.  David Pipe has saddled two of the last three winners, albeit Buena Vista won both events.

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2.40--Ryanair Chase: Albertas Run has two gold and one silver medal to his name in this race though the ground (best on a sound surface) might have gone against him this time around.  Only two favourites have prevailed via eight contests though that said, seven of the winners scored at odds of 6/1 or less. Twenty four Irish raiders have tried and failed to win this contest.  Nicky Henderson (responsible for both successful favourites), Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls all have two winners to their name, the other successful trainers being David Pipe and Nigel Twiston-Davies.

3.20--World Hurdle: Eight favourites have won via the last eighteen contests during which time, thirteen gold medallists emerged from the front three horses in the betting.  The biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at 8/1.  Get Me Out Of Here has finished runner-up in all three Cheltenham Festival assignments thus far.  Beaten a head in the ‘Supreme’ in 2010, GMOOH fell victim to a minimum margin defeat (nose) twelve months later (County Hurdle) before securing the silver medal again in the ultra competitive Coral Cup last year.  If any horses deserves to score at the Cheltenham Festival this year, Get Me Out Of Here is the beast!

4.00--Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate:  Last year’s successful market leader was only the second favourite to oblige during the last twenty-nine years.  Although eight-year-olds have ‘only’ won four of the last fourteen renewals, vintage representatives have secured twenty-three of the last forty-three available toteplacepot/each way positions.  Horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-10 have won eight of the last ten renewals.

4.40--’Kim Muir’ Chase: Nine-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen contests whilst claiming twenty-one of the last available forty-eight toteplacepot/each way positions.  Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been secured by horses carrying 10-13 or more, as have thirty-four of the last forty-seven available toteplacepot positions.  Ferdy Murphy’s Cheltenham record with his outsiders stands up almost as well as any other trainer, especially if you take the Nicky Henderson out of the equation.  Riguez Dancer could go well at rewarding odds, whilst other stable representatives this week to keep on a back burner include Going Wrong, De Boitron and Poker Di Sivola

 

Hexham:

Class 4 novice hurdle event due to be contested at 2.55: Three of the five market leaders have prevailed (5/6-5/6-10/11), the other market leaders having secured silver medals.  Six-year-olds have won three contests whilst all five winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Just one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, horses carrying weights of 11-2 or less have secured eight contests.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last ten contests have been secured by market leaders, with seven-year-olds leading the eight-year-olds 5-3 during the period.  Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: The last eight winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones, whilst just one favourite has obliged during the last decade.

 

Towcester:

TOWCESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Towcester: 13

Favourite stats: 6 (46.2%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/4

 

Trainers of winners at Towcester in 2013:

2--Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 8/13*)

2--David Pipe (7/4* & 1/2*)

1--Kevin Bishop (11/2)

1--David Bridgwater (11/2)

1--Tony Carroll (9/1)

1--Claire Dyson (5/1)

1--Caroline Keevil (9/2)

1--Donald McCain (4/5*)

1--Jamie Snowdon (7/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1--Venetia Williams (3/1*)

All thirteen winners sent off at a top price of 9/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kate Buckett (3/1)

1--Sarah Jane Davies (5/2)

1--Robin Duickin (9/4)

1--John Ferguson (15/8)

1--Sophie Leech (9/4)

1--Michael Roberts (11/4)

1--Richard Woolacott (11/4)

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Six-year-olds have secured five of the seven contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 (four successful market leaders).

Three mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.30: Three clear and two joint favourites have prevailed via seven renewals.

Class 4 two-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst four of the last five favourites secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one winner.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 5.35: The last five winners have scored at 16/1--14/1--12/1--15/2--7/2 following the successful inaugural (5/4) market leader back in 2004.

 

Wolverhampton:

Gerard Butler’s only two entries this week at the time of writing were at this venue, where Gerard boasts fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 24% strike rate in recent years.

 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

FRIDAY 15/03:

Cheltenham Day 4:

1.30--Triumph Hurdle: Four of the last fourteen favourites have obliged which not a bad record considering the competitive nature of this opening event.  Nine market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.  Irish trainers have not lifted this prize since 2002, with Philip Hobbs (2/10), Paul Nicholls (2/14), Alan King (2/20) and Nicky Henderson (2/13) all having trained two winners during the study period.

2.05--County hurdle: Although backed up by only six placed representatives in the last thirteen contests, five-year-olds have won this competitive event no less than eight times during the period.  Forty of the last fifty winners hailed from the five and six-year-old vintages which should sway you towards younger horses in the contest.  Horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-1 have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals.

2.40--’Albert Bartlett’: Favourites have won three of the eight renewals whilst market leaders have secured seven toteplacepot positions.  Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 4-3 to date.  Previous course winners account for half of the winners to date whilst the fill scoreboard reads: Britain: 5--Ireland: 2--France: 1.

3.20--Cheltenham Gold Cup: Six of the last ten market leaders have won the ‘Blue Riband’ with Kauto Star being a beaten favourite on two occasions.  Eight of the ten favourites finished in the frame.  Bobs Worth has won all six of his races when racing left-handed thus far, whilst his record at Cheltenham is 4/4.  The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to only have one outing during the season before the big race was Garrison Savannah back in 1991 who like Bobs Worth, had won the RSA Chase the previous season.  At the odds on offer at the time of writing (3/1), Bob’s Worth rates as my bet of the week.  Only the progressive Silviniaco Conti emerges as a danger from my viewpoint.

4.00--Foxhunters Chase: Three market leaders have won via the last fourteen contests, the figure increasing to seven during the period when taking the first three horses in the betting into account.  Four of the last seven winners have scored at 33/1 (twice) and 20/1 (twice).

4.40--’Martin Pipe’ Conditional: Two of the four favourites have finished in the money to date (one winner).  David Pipe has saddled two beaten favourites in the race which he is desperate to win for obvious reasons.

5.15--’Grand Annual’: Every winner during the last eleven years carried a maximum burden of 10-13, whilst eight gold medallists carried 10-7 or less.  Novices have a great record in the ‘Johnny Henderson’, whilst horses with decent each way form leading up to the race can be expected to figure prominently.  Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged, whilst Nicky Henderson’s runners always demand respect in a race run in honour of his late father.  Nicky’s novice Tetlami would be my each way selection if the trainer chooses this race for his seven-year-old.

 

Fakenham:

FAKENHAM DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Fakenham: 13

Favourite stats: 4 (30.8% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/2

 

Trainers of winners at Fakenham in 2013:

1--Mick Channon (10/11*)

1--Sean Curran (11/1)

1--Nicky Henderson (2/5*)

1--Paul Henderson (7/1)

1--Alan Hill (9/4*)

1--Lawney Hill (2/1)

1--Neil King (3/1)

1--Anabel K. Murphy (3/1)

1--David Pipe (10/1)

1--Renee Robeson (11/2)

1--Oliver Sherwood (15/2)

1--Tim Vaughan (6/5*)

1--Lucy Wadham (9/1)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Alex Hales (6/4 & 11/8)

1--Mick Channon (2/1)

1--Ed Dunlop (2/1**)

1--John Ferguson (2/1**)

1--Polly Gundry (15/8)

1--Renee Robeson (11/8)

1--Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1--David Thompson (11/10)

1--Venetia Williams (7/4)

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35 over the minimum trip: Six-year-olds have won four of the last six (and six of the last eleven) contests.  Four favourites have obliged in the last ten years.

Foxhunters event due to be contested at 4.15: Five favourites have prevailed via the last ten contests, nine winners of which started at 9/2 or less.  Nine-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 4.55: The biggest priced winner in this event via the last ten contests before last year’s 33/1 shocker was returned at just 4/1, statistics which included four successful market leaders during the last six years.  Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals.

 

Lingfield:

The next potential William Jarvis runner is Laudation on this card, the trainer having saddled two gold and one silver medallist via his last three representatives.  Williams boasts an LSP reading of twenty-four points at Lingfield via an 18% strike rate during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

John Gosden held a couple of entries at Wolverhampton this week at the time of writing, with the trainer offering a 27% ratio in recent times.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SATURDAY 16/03:

Ffos Las:

FFOS LAS NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Ffos Las: 14

Favourite stats: 3 (21.4%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Ffos Las in 2013:

3--Rebecca Curtis (11/2-4/1-16/1)

2--Evan Williams (7/1 & 7/2)

1--Kim Bailey (4/1)

1--S.L. Bevan (5/1)

1--Tom George (3/1**)

1--Nicky Henderson (4/9*)

1--B. Llewellyn (66/1)

1--Neil Mullholland (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--David Pipe (3/1)

1--Nick Williams (4/1)

12/14 winners were sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/6)

1--Michael Blake (9/4)

1--Peter Bowen (11/4**)

1--Keiran Burke (7/2)

1--Rebecca Curtis (11/4)

1--Jackie Du Plessis (9/4)

1--David Evans (3/1**)

1--John Flint (5/4)

1--Sue Gardner (7/2)

1--Debra Hamer (3/1**)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/8)

1--Charlie Longsdon (5/4)

1--Paul Nicholls (4/6*)

1--Michael Scudamore (11/4**)

 

Kempton:

Latest stats from the ‘ton up riders club’ at Kempton during the last five years: Jim Crowley: 127/863--Luke Morris: 119/966--Adam Kirby: 107/732

 

Lingfield:

Joe Fanning remains the jockey to keep an eye on when riding down south at Lingfield, Joe having ridden seventy-eight winners which have amassed the same number of points regarding Joe’s level stake profits at the venue in recent times.

 

Uttoxeter:

UTTOXETER NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Uttoxeter: 7

Favourite stats: 3 (42.8%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: None to date

 

Trainers of winners at Uttoxeter in 2013:

1--Dai Burchell (16/1)

1--Tony Carroll (12/1)

1--Rebecca Curtis (Evs*)

1--Linda Siddall (16/1)

1--Harry Whittington (Evs*)

1--Evan Williams (15/8*)

1--Nick Williams (11/4)

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

1--Kim Bailey (5/2)

1--Henry Day (4/1)

1--Anthony Middleton (7/2)

1--Tom Symonds (5/4)

Nine of the last ten winners of the Midlands Grand National (scheduled to be contested at 3.20) have carried weights of 10-9 or less.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the study period.

Three mile novice handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last ten contests.  Seven renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was registered.

 

Wolverhampton:

Favourites in non handicap events at Dunstall Park accounted for 43% of victories in non handicap events during the last five years, the ratio dropping to just 31% in races in which the handicapper had written the terms and conditions of the relevant races.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


SUNDAY 17/03:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Carlisle: 12

Favourite stats: 3 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

1--Neil Alexander (9/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (12/1)

1--Tony Coyle (13/2)

1--Brian Ellison (11/4)

1--Chris Grant (5/2)

1--Philip Kirby (22/1)

1--Barry Murtagh (11/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--Dianne Sayer (16/1)

1--Nicky Richards (1/8*)

1--Tim Vaughan (8/11*)

1--Venetia Williams (15/8*)

9/12 winners scored at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)

1--George Charlton (3/1**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1***)

1--Tom Gretton (7/2)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (9/4)

1--Charlie Longsdon (Evs)

1--Donald McCain (4/9)

1--Noel Kelly (4/9)

1--John Norton (4/1***)

1--Sue Smith (4/1***)

Lucinda Russell took the training honours at last year’s corresponding meeting when securing a 13/2 double (2/1* & 6/4).  Other winners on the day were saddled by George Bewley (11/10*), Brian Ellison (7/2*), Venetia Williams (4/5*) and Mark Hughes (Evens*).  The bookmakers went home with their collective tails between their legs!

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Favourites boast a 48% record in three-year-old non handicap races at Lingfield during the last five years.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MONDAY 18/03:

Southwell (NH):

SOUTHWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Southwell: 14

Favourite stats: 5 (35.7%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/3

 

Trainers of winners at Southwell in 2013:

2--Keith Reveley (3/1 & 11/8*)

1--Caroline Bailey (13/8*)

1--Jennie Candlish (9/2)

1--Robin Dickin (12/1)

1--P.W. Flynn (6/1)

1--Tom George (15/8**)

1--Ed De Giles (7/1)

1--Steve Gollings (1/2*)

1--Warren Greatrex (7/2)

1--Paul Nicholls (5/4*)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (11/2)

1--David Pipe (4/1)

1--Peter Pritchard (12/1)

12/14 winners to date were returned at odds of 7/1 or less, the other gold medallists being sent off at 12/1.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Tony Caroll (4/1 & 5/1**)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (15/8 & 9/4)

1--Warren Greatrex (6/5)

1--Alan King (5/1**)

1--Graeme McPherson (4/6)

1--Oliver Sherwood (4/5)

1--Mike Sowersby (7/2)

1--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4)

1--Lucy Wadham (15/8**)

All seven favourites finished in the frame (exact science) at last year’s corresponding fixture when the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1 (three successful favourites on the card at 6/4-11/8-5/4).

 

Lingfield (No corresponding meeting on this day last year):

Market leaders boast a 34% strike rate in three-year-old handicap events at Lingfield in recent times, four ‘spots’ better than equivalent events for older horses at the venue.

 

Kempton:

Although no successful market leaders were recorded, a top priced winner of 11/1 emerged during last year’s relevant meeting.  Successful trainers: Phil McEntee (9/1), Peter Chapple-Hyam (4/1), Peter Hiatt (11/1), Kevin Morgan (3/1), Tom Keddy (13/2), Chris Gordon (11/1) and John Weymes (10/1).

Beaten favourites on the card were saddled by Andrew Balding (9/4 & 11/8), John Best (5/4), Willie Musson (15/8), Mark Johnston (4/1), Robin Dickin (11/4) and Julia Fielden (11/4).

Well I Declare : 8th March 2013

Well I Declare: 8th March

Well I Declare: 8th March

FRIDAY 08/03:

Ayr:

AYR NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Ayr: 35

Favourite stats: 17 (48.6% of races–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 6/10 (60.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Ayr in 2013:

8–Lucinda Russell (7/2-5/6*-4/9*-5/4*-7/2-11/8**-2/1*-5/1)

7–Donald McCain (5/4*-Evs*-8/15*-5/4*-9/4**-8/13*-2/9*)

3–Jim Goldie (12/1-6/1-10/1)

3–J.J. Lambe (16/1-4/1-8/1)

2–Nick Alexander (11/4 & 5/1)

2–Nicky Richards (6/4* & 9/2)

2–D. Whillans (11/4* & 13/2)

1–Maurice Barnes (11/4)

1–S. Crawford (10/1)

1–Tim Easterby (4/6*)

1–James Ewart (11/10*)

1–Phil Kirby (5/1)

1–Ferdy Murphy (16/1)

1–David Pipe (9/4**)

1–Dianne Sayer (3/1)

32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4–Donald McCain (11/8**-13/8-9/4**-11/10)

4–David Pipe (4/6-8/11-11/8-6/5)

2–Nick Alexander (9/4** & 10/3)

1–Maurice Barnes (9/4**)

1–G. Bewley (6/4)

1–S. Coltherd (9/4)

1–S. Crawford (10/11)

1–Rose Dobbin (9/4)

1–I. Jardine (10/11*)

1–J.J. Lambe (9/2)

1–Barry Murtagh (15/8)

1–Nicky Richards (15/8)

1–Alan Swinbank (9/4**)

1–A.C. Whillans (7/5)

 

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Leicester:

LEICESTER NH DETAILS FOR 2013:

Number of races at Leicester: 19

Favourite stats: 11 (57.9%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/6

 

Trainers of winners at Leicester in 2013:

3–Tom George (7/1-1/4*-13/8*)

3–Venetia Williams (2/1*-3/1*-2/1**)

2–John Ferguson (6/5* & 8/11*)

2–David Pipe (10/11* & 15/8*)

1–Roger Curtis (16/1)

1–Henry Daly (7/4*)

1–Richard Guest (5/1)

1–Philip Hobbs (10/11*)

1–Miss Kayley Jones (9/2)

1–Charlie Longsdon (14/1)

1–Anthony Middleton (5/2)

1–Oliver Sherwood (10/3)

1–Nigel Twiston-Davies (9/4)

17/19 winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2–David Pipe (15/8 & 10/3**)

1–David Arbuthnot (3/1)

1–Michael Blake (2/1)

1–Philip Hobbs (2/1**)

1–Alan King (10/11)

1–Donald McCain (10/3**)

1–Mrs C. Robinson (10/11)

1–Oliver Sherwood (9/4)

1–Andy Turnell (4/1)

 

Sandown:

SANDOWN NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Sandown: 20

Favourite stats: 6 (30.0%–includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 1/6 (16.7%)

 

Trainers of winners at Sandown in 2013:

3–Nicky Henderson (7/4-11/10*-9/4*)

2–Gary Moore (20/1 & 5/1)

2–David Pipe (11/4 & 4/7*)

2–Venetia Williams (5/1 & 7/2)

1–Mrs F. J. Browne (2/1)

1–Vic Dartnell (14/1)

1–Philip Hobbs (11/10*)

1–Sophie Leech (7/1)

1–Charlie Mann (12/1)

1–Richard Mitchell (7/1)

1–Anna Newton Smith (16/1)

1–Paul Nicholls (7/4*)

1–Jonjo O’Neill (9/4)

1–Jeremy Scott (7/2)

1–Evan Williams (Evs*)

16/20 winners sent off at odds of 7/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4–Nicky Henderson (5/2-4/7-5/2-5/2)

2–Paul Nicholls (1/3 & 2/5)

1–Mrs Jenny Gordon (15/8)

1–Warren Greatrex (15/8)

1–Emma Lavelle (10/11)

1–Andrew Martin (7/2**)

1–Gary Moore (7/2**)

1–David Pipe (3/1)

1–Jeremy Scott (10/3)

1–Nick Williams (11/4)

1–Venetia Williams (5/6)

Amateur riders’ handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner via nine renewals during the last decade was returned at 13/2.  Four successful favourites have been recorded in the process.

Class 3 Handicap Chase over the minimum trip due to be contested at 2.50.  Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick as do six-year-olds.  Five of the last six winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-2.

Grand Military Gold Cup scheduled for 3.25: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals during which time, nine winners have scored at odds of 13/2 or less. Paul Nicholls had Merrion Square involved at the five day stage, the trainer having won three of the last eight renewals.

Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over two and three quarter miles scheduled for 4.00: Charlie Longsdon has saddled two 14/1 winners during the last week and the trainer comes into this event on a hat trick, with Greenlaw being his only potential raider earlier at the time of writing.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 5.10: Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last ten winners during which time, four favourites obliged.

 

Wolverhampton:

Last year’s Northern-based rising sensation Shirley Teasdale has ridden more winners at Wolverhampton than at any other venue, producing a level stake profit of sixty four points into the bargain.

 

Well I Declare: 7th March 2013

Well I Declare: 7th March

Well I Declare: 7th March

THURSDAY 07/03:

Carlisle:

CARLISLE NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Carlisle: 12

Favourite stats: 3 (25.0%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 2/4

 

Trainers of winners at Carlisle in 2013:

1--Neil Alexander (9/2)

1--Maurice Barnes (12/1)

1--Tony Coyle (13/2)

1--Brian Ellison (11/4)

1--Chris Grant (5/2)

1--Philip Kirby (22/1)

1--Barry Murtagh (11/2)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (9/2)

1--Dianne Sayer (16/1)

1--Nicky Richards (1/8*)

1--Tim Vaughan (8/11*)

1--Venetia Williams (15/8*)

9/12 winners scored at odds of 13/2 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3--Lucinda Russell (3/1**-5/2-6/4)

1--George Charlton (3/1**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1***)

1--Tom Gretton (7/2)

1--Malcolm Jefferson (9/4)

1--Charlie Longsdon (Evs)

1--Donald McCain (4/9)

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1--Noel Kelly (4/9)

1--John Norton (4/1***)

1--Sue Smith (4/1***)

 

‘Hands and Heels’ event scheduled for 2.10: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 whilst just one (11/4) market leader has prevailed thus far.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have won six of the last seven contests during which time, two market leaders have obliged alongside two joint favourites.  All eight winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 3.45: Sue Smith has won three of the last five races in which she was represented and the trainer‘s only option earlier in the week was Camden George.  Only two favourites have scored via nine renewals, with the other winners ranging in odds between 7/2 and 25/1.  Three of the last four winners were returned at 25/1--12/1--12/1.

Class 4 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five contests whilst two favourites have won via nine renewals.  Six of the last eight winners carried a minimum burden of 10-13.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion, vintage representatives have secured six of the eight renewals to date.  Just two favourites have won during the last six years during which time, the other winners scored at 50/1--40/1--13/2--6/1.

 

Wincanton:

WINCANTON NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Wincanton: 31

Favourite stats: 11 (35.5%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 4/5 (80.0%)

 

Trainers of winners at Wincanton in 2013:

6--Paul Nicholls (6/1-1/3*-17/2-3/1-Evs*-2/1)

3--Tom George (6/1-11/5*-2/1*)

3--David Pipe (5/6*-10/1-4/1**)

2--Colin Tizzard (4/1 & 11/4**)

2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/4* & 12/1)

1--Bob Buckler (10/3)

1--R.B. Chanin (6/1)

1--Harry Fry (3/1)

1--Nick Lampard (9/2)

1--Michael Miller (16/1)

1--Neil Mulholland (7/2)

1--Seamus Mullins (3/1)

1--Jonjo O'Neill (1/5*)

1--Brendan Powell (14/1)

1--Richard Price (10/1)

1--Andy Turnell (2/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (4/1)

1--Nick Williams (11/2)

1--Venetia Williams (1/2*)

1--Richard Woollacott (11/4*)

28/31 winners started at 10/1 or less.

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

6--Paul Nicholls (5/2-5/6-3/1-7/2-11/8-9/4)

5--David Pipe (7/2-7/2**-13/8-6/5-11/4**)

2--Karen George (4/1** & 6/4)

2--Philip Hobbs (Evs & 11/10)

2--Colin Tizzard (5/2** & 7/2**)

1--Vic Dartnell (5/6)

1--Hugo Froud (7/4)

1--Tom George (13/8)

1--Nicky Henderson (6/5)

1--S. Rea (5/1)

1--Tim Vaughan (5/2**)

1--Nick Williams (7/4)

 

Southwell:

Alan Bailey continues to dominate the stats board at Southwell as his 25% strike rate (twenty one winners) has produced one hundred and thirty one points of level stake profits.  Alan held two entries for Thursday’s card at the time of writing.

 

Wolverhampton:

Andrea Atzeni has booked rides at Dunstall Park this week, the popular rider boasting an LSP reading of eight five points via fifty six winners during his short career.

Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

WEDNESDAY 06/03:

Catterick:

This is Catterick’s last NH meeting of the season, the next scheduled fixture being the first flat meeting of the year on 10th April.

CATTERICK NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Catterick: 26

Favourite stats: 10 (38.5% of races--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 5/8 (62.5%)

 

Trainers of winners at Catterick in 2013:

4--K. Reveley (Evs*-1/5*-2/5*-5/1)

3--Simon Shirley-Beavan (10/1-10/3-7/4)

2--Martin Keighley (11/4 & 15/8*)

2--Michael Smith (6/4* & 8/1)

1--Chris Bealby (11/2)

1--Mrs K. Burke (10/3)

1--S.R.B. Crawford (13/8*)

1--Brian Ellison (6/1)

1--John Ferguson (10/11*)

1--Joanne Foster (66/1)

1--Micky Hammond (11/2)

1--Phil Kirby (15/2)

1--Donald McCain (2/1)

1--David O'Meara (8/1)

1--Sue Smith (4/6*)

1--John Spearing (5/1)

1--John Wade (4/6*)

1--A.C. Whillans (15/2)

1--Venetia Williams (7/4*)

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25/26 winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5--Donald McCain (3/1-13/8-5/4-15/8-7/4)

2--Keith Reveley (6/4 & 11/4**)

2--Venetia Williams (9/2 & 1/2)

1--S. Crawford (11/4**)

1--Chris Grant (4/1**)

1--Micky Hammond (9/2)

1--Phil Kirby (4/1)

1--Andrew Parker (13/8)

1--John Quinn (1/6)

1--Martin Todhunter (4/9)

1--Tim Walford (4/1**)

1--Evan Williams (11/10)

 

Selling hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less, stats which include five successful favourites.  The last ten winners carried weights of 11-2 or less.

Class 4 Novice Hurdle event for mares at 3.20: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two odds on winners.

Class 4 Handicap Chase for novices over an extended three miles, due to be contested at 2.50: Five favourites have won during the last decade, eight gold medallists having been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

Class 4 nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Two favourites have won during the last decade, with six winners scoring at odds ranging between 10/1 and 33/1.  Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-4 or more.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 4.50: Just one market leader has scored during the last eleven renewals which is a very unusual statistic in Hunter Chase events.  Just three of the last ten favourites have finished in the frame to add insult to injury for toteplacepot enthusiasts who include well fancied horses.

Bumper event due to be contested at 5.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals of the scheduled finale with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a five-timer on this occasion.  Five favourites have obliged via seven renewals.

 

Fontwell (Note the toteplacepot information in the opening paragraphs this week):

FONTWELL NH DETAILS FOR 2013: 

Number of races at Fontwell: 7

Favourite stats: 1 (14.3%--includes joint and co favourites)

Odds on ratio: 0/2

 

Trainers of winners at Fontwell in 2013:

1--Miss Sally Duckett (11/10*)

1--Philip Hobbs (9/4)

1--Seamus Mullins (4/1)

1--Helen Nelmes (14/1)

1--Paul Nicholls (3/1)

1--David Pipe (7/4)

1--Evan Williams (10/1)

Five of the seven winners to date started at odds of 4/1 or less

 

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2--Paul Nicholls (5/6 & 7/4)

1--Vic Dartnell (10/11)

1--Tom George (2/1)

1--Charlie Longsdon (11/8)

1--Oliver Sherwood (2/1)

 

Class 4 Novice Hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Six-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals to date, whilst snaring nine of the available nineteen toteplacepot positions.  All eight favourites have been beaten to date albeit the biggest priced winner of this event was returned at just 13/2 before last year‘s 33/1 gold medallist reared its ugly head.  Four of the eight market leaders finished in the frame thus far.

Two and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 2.40: Four of the seven market leaders have reached the frame whilst favourites have secured three of the last four contests, their only victories in the race.

Maiden hurdle due to be contested at 4.10: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.40: Eight-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests during which time, just one (11/8) favourite prevailed, albeit the biggest priced winner was a 9/1 chance.

 

Kempton:

Ron Harris (eighty points) and Jo Crowley (seventy nine) have produced terrific level stake profits at Kempton in recent years.  For the record, Richard Hannon has saddled one hundred and four winners during the study period, albeit his strike rate stands at 15% which is ordinary by Richard’s standards.  Level stake losses of sixty points emphasise my point.

 

Lingfield:

Jewelled (scheduled to contest the 4.30 event on the card) was only beaten a length at odds of 33/1 at Kempton last week and with trainer Lady Herries boasting decent stats here at Lingfield, the Fantastic Light mare might be worth another each way play.  The trainer has saddled three winners from thirteen runners here in recent times, earning Lady Herries black figures in the LSP sector.

Well I Declare: 22nd December

Well I Declare: 22nd December

Well I Declare: 22nd December

The focus is on Ascot, Haydock, Newcastle and Lingfield today.

SATURDAY 22/12:

Ascot:

Three mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 12.55:  Just the two renewals to date though that said, five-year-olds have won both events whilst securing the forecast positions on each occasion (9/2 & 8/1--6/1 & 14/1).

Class 2 graduation chase scheduled for 1.30: Five year-olds trained by Paul Nicholls have won the last two contests, the trainer holding two such entries this time around.

Eight of the last eleven favourites have won the ‘Long Walk’ which is scheduled to be contested at 2.00.  That said, Big Bucks will not be in attendance this year due to breaking news at the time of writing, even though the nine-year-old was among the five-day acceptors.

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Listed Silver Cup event scheduled for 2.35: The last six winners have carried weights of 11-1 or less, whilst last year’s successful (joint) favourite was the first market leader to oblige in a long time, the three previous scorers having prevailed at 33/1-25/1-12/1.  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, statistics which include three of the last four contests.

Listed ‘Ladbroke’ event scheduled for 3.35: Five-year-olds have secured six of the nine renewals.  Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last eight winners, with the trainer holding four options at the time of writing.  Five of the last seven winners have scored at odds ranging between 12/1 and 33/1 during which time, just one (9/4) favourite obliged.

We still await the first successful favourite (following four renewals) of the scheduled closing event which is a seventeen furlong handicap chase, due off at 3.40 at the time of writing.  All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Donald McCain held nine options on the card earlier in the week, with the trainer have saddled more than three times the number of winners (35) as the next best potentially involved handler (Nicky Henderson with eleven winners) at Haydock on Saturday.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 12.10: The four favourites to date have secured two gold and two silver medals.  Three of the four winners carried weights of 11-5 or more to victory.

Two mile novice chase scheduled for 12.40: Two favourites have won via seven renewals to date, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at 4/1.

‘Tommy Whittle Chase’ due to be contested at 2.15: Seven and eight-year-olds have won the last five renewals between them with the older vintage having the edge (3-2).  All five winners have carried 11-4 or less during which time, one successful (10/3) favourite has emerged.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Bellaney Express was John Quinn’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week, the trainer boasting a 29% strike rate at the track in recent years, a ratio which has secured twelve points of level stake profit.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe boasts a level stake profit of fifty-four points via a 25% strike rate at Lingfield during the last five years.

Well I Declare: 21st December

Well I Declare: 21st December

Well I Declare: 21st December

Racing action is scheduled for Ascot, Lingfield, Uttoxeter and Wolverhampton today and we've also got in depth stats and analysis of last year's Ascot meeting and the story so far this season at Wolverhampton. Plenty to aim at!

FRIDAY 21/12:

Ascot:

Stats from the two-day fixture last year:

Races: 12

Winning favourites (includes joint and co favourites): 5

Odds on favourites: 1/2

Trainers with more than one winner:

3--P. Nicholls (11/4**--2/1--3/10*)

2--N. Henderson (2/1 & 11/10*)

2--D. Pipe (9/2 & 8/5)

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.45: Nicky Henderson has saddled two (four-year-old) winners of this event via four contests thus far.

Novice handicap chase scheduled for 1.20: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the seven renewals contested during the last decade.  Three favourites have prevailed during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/1.

Grade 2 Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 1.55: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last seven events, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.   Nicky Henderson was responsible for four of the twelve five-day declarations, the trainer having saddled two of the last six winners.

Nineteen furlong Grade 2 Novice Chase scheduled for 2.30: The biggest priced winners was returned at 13/2 via seven contests during the last ten years, statistics which include three successful favourites.

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Twenty two furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.05: Five-year-olds have won all four renewals to date, whilst Jonjo O’Neill has saddled two gold medallists thus far.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-olds have won five of the six recent renewals during which time, successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Given the sheer number of races contested at Lingfield, their statistics in the non handicap sector during the last five years makes for good reading: 2YO: 45%--3YO: 48%--Older horses: 44%.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Save a couple of shillings this week for Benozzo Gozzoli who represents Simon Earle in the scheduled 1.45 event.  Simon has saddled four winners from just eight runners at the track and this was his only potential representative on the card at the time of writing.  Conversely, Donald McCain had seven runners involved at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled forty-five winners here at Uttoxeter in recent times.  Dr Richard Newland’s 32% strike rate at the venue is also worth taking into consideration.

 

Wolverhampton:

Statistics since the end of the turf season:

Number of races at Wolverhampton: 105

Favourite stats (includes joint and co favourites): 40 (38.1% of races)

Ratio of Odds on favourites: 9/12 (75.0%)

 

Trainers with winners at Wolverhampton:

6--M. Botti (Evs*--7/2--5/4*--7/2--2/1*--3/1)

6--K. Dalgleish (9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*--5/4*)

6--M. Easterby (12/1--13/2--7/2--9/4*--13/2--6/5*)

5--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--11/4*--Evs*)

3--M. Appleby (8/1--6/1--9/2)

3--David (P.D.) Evans (10/1--2/1--2/1*)

3--J. Ryan (9/2--15/8--7/2)

 

Beaten favourites at Wolverhampton:

4--A. Balding (3/1**--3/1--5/4--7/4)

4--K. Dalgleish (6/4--3/1--5/4--6/5)

4--B. Ellison (11/4--4/1**--9/4--11/4)

4--R. Fahey (4/1--9/4--2/1--13/8)

3--M. Easterby (9/2***--100/30--7/2)

3--M. Johnston (7/4--11/4--2/1)

Well I Declare: 20th December

Well I Declare: 20th December

Well I Declare: 20th December

The action from Exeter, Towcester and Kempton comes under the spotlight today.

THURSDAY 20/12:

Exeter:

General stats: Kim Bailey held two entries for the scheduled 3.20 event, the trainer boasting an LSP figure of sixteen points via a 30% strike rate at the venue.

‘Peterborough Chase’ (transferred from Huntingdon) scheduled for 1.50: Although four favourites have won during the last decade, four renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since Henrietta Knight’s grip on the contest gave way.

Mares novice chase scheduled for 2.50: All eight winners have scored at odds of 9/2 or less, stats which include five winning favourites.

 

Towcester:

General stats: Don Pooleoni was David Arbuthnot’s only potential runner on the card at the time of writing, David boasting a 6/15 ratio at Towcester in recent times.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Quite how Luke Morris has recorded a level stake profit (however minimal) from 949 rides at Kempton during the last five years only he will know!  A truly magnificent effort, whilst Jim Crowley’s 136 (1001 rides) winners at the venue during the period is another stat to behold.

Well I Declare: 19th December

Well I Declare: 19th December

Well I Declare: 19th December

Racing from Newbury, Ludlow, Kempton and Lingfield today, plus a detailed breakdown of the Kempton Winter A/W season so far.

WEDNESDAY 19/12:

Newbury:

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.15:  Favourites have won seven renewals during the last decade.

Class 3 three-mile handicap chase due to be contested at 12.50: Nigel Twiston-Davies has won three of the six contests and the trainer only had Tullyraine engaged at the penultimate stage.  The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3, with Tullyraine set to carry 11-5 on this occasion if the eight-year-old is offered the green light

Class 4 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.20: Nicky Henderson has as secured four of the last twelve renewals of this event with trainer holding three options at the five-day stage.  Five clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside a joint favourite.  Ten of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  The last seven winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less.

Class 4 two and a quarter-mile handicap chased scheduled for 1.50: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Three mile Graduation Chase due to be contested at 2.25: The four favourites to date have secured three gold and one silver medal with each winner carrying weights of 11-4 or more.

Novice hurdle ‘qualifier‘ scheduled for 3.00: Five-year-olds have landed six renewals during the last eleven years whilst vintage representatives have secured eight of the last twelve available toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Four of the last ten renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, seven winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less. Nicky Henderson held three options earlier in the week for a race that the trainer has won four times during the last decade.

 

Ludlow:

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General stats: Although Evan Williams leads the way in terms of the number of winners (42) at Ludlow during the last five years, Nicky Henderson (35) and Jonjo O’Neill (16) are not that far behind and this pair boast level stake profits at the track which Evan lacks.  Jonjo’s lack of winners compared to the other two trainers is offset by his far superior LSP figure which reads twenty-eight points at the time of writing.

 

Kempton:

Statistics since the end of the turf season:

Number of races at Kempton: 80

Favourite stats (includes joint and co favourites): 28 (35.0% of races)

Ratio of Odds on favourites: 6/11 (54.5%)

 

Trainers with winners at Kempton:

5--A. Balding (11/10*--11/4*--4/1**--11/4--7/2*)

3--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--20/1)

3--J. Boyle (2/1--14/1--5/2*)

3--David (P.D.) Evans (7/1--2/1--9/2*)

3--J.S. Moore (4/1--8/1--9/2)

 

Beaten favourites at Kempton:

3--A. Balding (Evs--4/6--2/1)

3--Jo Crowley (4/7--6/4**--5/2**)

3--J. Gosden (10/11--6/4--6/4)

3--Gary Moore (11/4--9/4**--11/4)

3--J. Ryan (9/2--5/2--5/1**)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Dan Kubler held three options at Lingfield this week at the time of writing with Mont Signal (12.50) having been confirmed as a runner on this card.  Daniel has saddled three winners at Lingfield from just seven runners to date, figures which have produced an LSP reading of eight points.

Well I Declare, 8th December

Well I Declare, 8th December

Well I Declare, 8th December

Racing action from Sandown, Aintree, Wetherby and Chepstow are all featured in Mal Boyle's Well I Declare for..

...SATURDAY (08/12):

Sandown:

General stats: Five favourites (of one description or another) won via twelve races during the two-day meeting last year, whilst two of the four odds on favourites obliged. 

National Hunt Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 12.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last six winners of this event with the trainer coming to the gig on this occasion on a four timer.  All four winners saddled by Nicky were five-year-old and two of his three entries earlier in the week hailed from that vintage.  Favourites came to the party on a six timer last year but the 4/6 market leader could only finish third.

Pertemps series qualifier scheduled for 1.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled the only two successful favourites (in the last four years) during the decade.  Paul held two entries for the contest earlier in the week, as did Jonjo O’Neill who is the only other trainer to have saddled two winners during the study period.

Listed Handicap Hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two winning favourites), whilst four-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests.

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Twenty nine furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: The last six winners have carried a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst the eight successful horses during the last decade ranged between 7/2 and 10/1, with not a single favourite amongst them.

 

Aintree:

General stats: The Murphy yard is potentially represented by the course and distance winner Quito De La Roque in the scheduled 1.50 event with the stable looking to improve its ratio to 3/3 at Aintree.

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.00: Favourites have secured two of the five renewals of this event in which three market leaders have finished in the frame.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.35: Six-year-olds have won six renewals of this event during the last decade.  Last year’s successful 5/1 favourite was the first to score in seven years since back to back 5/1 joint market leaders obliged in 2003/2004.   Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5.

‘Becher Chase’ due to be contested at 2.10: Just like last week’s ‘Hennessy’, this race is finally being won by fancied horses on a semi regular basis following years of renewals which favoured the bookmakers.  Only one market leader has obliged in the last seven years though that said, seven of the last nine contests have been secured by horses sent off at odds of 10/1 or less.  Unusually, Paul Nicholls was potentially represented by just one horse in this year’s event, a race which Paul has secured three times in the last eight years.  Join Together is the horse in question.

Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.45: Four renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded following the success of four consecutive market leaders (of one description or another) between 2004 and 2007.  Four-year-olds have been the most successful vintage (four winners during the last decade) though that said, just three of the twenty-two five-day acceptors hailed from the junior ranks.

‘Grand Sefton’ event scheduled for 3.20: Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals, whilst five contests have passed without a successful favourite being registered.  That said, five of the nine favourites have secured win and place positions which is a decent enough record in this type of event.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: Tim Easterby does not lead the strike rate figures, though his regular winners at Wetherby are backed up by an LSP reading of twenty-six points.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: John O’Shea’s LSP figure of eighty-one points demands attention.