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Well I Declare, 7th December

Well I Declare, 7th December

Well I Declare, 7th December

Just a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's Well I Declare feature, which previews the action from Sandown, Exeter and Lingfield for...

...FRIDAY (07/12):

Sandown:

General stats: David Arbuthnot does not saddle many horses these days (especially under the NH code) whereby his three potential runners at Sandown on Friday attract the eye, especially as David boasts a 25% strike rate at the venue during the last five years.  David has secured an LSP reading of eleven points during the study period for good measure. 

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.50: Favourites have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade, whilst seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  That said, hot favourites at 1/4 and 4/5 have been beaten from a win perspective, albeit the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at just 8/1.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase due to be contested at 1.20:  The last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 during which time, three market leaders prevailed.

Grade 2 two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Four and five-year-olds have secured four victories apiece via the last nine renewals, whilst Paul Nicholls and Alan have both ‘bagged a brace’.  Although only one favourite has scored via the last five contests, four market leaders have won during the study period with the biggest priced winner returned at just 11/2.  Seven of the nine favourites secured toteplacepot positions.

Listed ‘Future Stars’ steeplechase scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals with course winner Pacha Du Polder potentially representing the yard this time around.  Seven-year-olds have secured five victories during the period, with Grove Pride hopefully taking part as Henry Daly’s gelding attempts to secure a hat trick in terms of vintage representatives.

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Class 4 two miles handicap hurdle for novices due to be contested at 3.40: Five-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals of Sandown’s scheduled finale.  Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more, statistics which include the last six gold medallists.

 

Exeter:

General stats: There are not too many racecourses where Tony McCoy’s ratio of winners is usurped but with Jason Maguire sitting on the 28% mark at Exeter, even the champion jockey has played ‘second fiddle’ in recent years. 

Nineteen furlong conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 1.00: Six-year-olds have won six renewals during the last decade during which time, two favourites have prevailed.  The last eight winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Nineteen furlong novice chase event due to be contested at 1.30: Six-year-olds again rule the roost as vintage representatives have snared four of the last five renewals.  Four favourites have won via eight contests with the biggest priced winner returned at just 6/1.  Philip Hobbs is the only trainer to have saddled two winners and Philip’s only entry earlier in the week was six-year-old Fingal Bay.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.05: Some readers might suggest that six nine-year-old winners of this event during the last decade can be put down to pure coincidence though if that is so, why do plenty of professionals within the sport suggest that only nine and ten-year-olds should be seriously considered in the Grand National?  The vintage records of the relevant raiders down the years have been proved right via a general rule of thumb whereby I will stick to the principle in this extreme marathon event, albeit only two of the sixteen five-day acceptors were nine-year-olds!  No successful favourites were recorded during the last decade, with just one of the last six market leaders having finished in the frame.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle ‘qualifier’ scheduled for 2.40: Five-year-olds have secured seven victories during the last decade, with four-year-olds ‘mopping up’ the other three events.  Only two favourites have won during the study period though that said, nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Workbench was the only potential Paul Nicholls runner in the race earlier in the week, Paul being the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions in recent times.

Class 4, three-mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade whilst just two favourites have obliged.  The last eight winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  Only one of the last fifteen runners sent off at 11/1 or more has finished in the frame (no winners).

Exeter’s closing bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Four favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven gold medallists were returned at odds of 7/2 or less.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: John Gosden’s 23% strike rate is backed up by an LSP figure of twenty-five points during the last five years.

Well I Declare, 6th December

Well I Declare, 6th December

Well I Declare, 6th December

Action today from Leicester, Market Rasen, Wincanton & Lingfield. here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's Well I Declare feature for...

...THURSDAY (06/12):

Leicester:

General stats: Tony McCoy’s 43% strike rate (via twenty winners) stands head and shoulders above his rivals whilst on the training front, both Fergal O’Brian and Richard Harper boast 2/2 ratios.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Couple Nicky Henderson’s strike rate in December last year (see stats above) with his 41% ratio here at Market Rasen and you have a recipe for plenty of winners.

 

Wincanton:

General stats: Tim Vaughan (24% strike rate) and Emma Lavelle (22%) are emerging as understudies to the lead role of Paul Nicholls (27%) at Wincanton via recent results.

Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.40: All nine winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 11-4 during which time, five winners were returned at odds ranging between 16/1 and 50/1.  Four five-year-olds won during the study period, accompanied by just two successful market leaders who represented the vintage.

Class 4 ‘Silver Buck’ handicap chase event due to be contested at 2.10: Last year’s 2/1 market leader could only finish second (beaten three lengths) following six consecutive successful favourites.

Two mile Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Fiver-year-olds secured six of the nine contests during the last decade during which time, seven winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  Three joint favourites have obliged though successful clear favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.

Wincanton’s closing conditional jockey’s event set for 3.40: Favourites have won four of the eight renewals, whilst Venetia Williams has won with her last two runners in the contest.  At the time of writing, Venetia only had Last Shot entered up in the race.

 

Lingfield (transferred from Wolverhampton):

General stats: The 46% strike rate of favourites in the non handicap sector at Lingfield stands close inspection, whilst the 33% ratio of market leaders in three-year-old handicaps is a perfectly decent return during the last five years.

Well I Declare, 5th December

Well I Declare, 5th December

Well I Declare, 5th December

The meetings from Catterick, Hereford, Kempton and Lingfield come under Mal Boyle's scrutiny in a reminder of Well I Declare for...

...WEDNESDAY (05/12):

Catterick:

General stats: Brian Ellison has won with four of the eleven runners he has saddled at Catterick under the NH code in recent times. 

 

Hereford:

General stats: Rebecca Curtis, Nicky Henderson and Jim Best all boast 33% strike rates with a decent amount of runners, whilst trainers with impressive ratios with less raiders include Alistair Lidderdale (3/6), Richard Woolacott (2/3) and John Ferguson (2/5).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Although the relevant 11% strike rate is nothing to write home about, Jo Crowley’s LSP figure of sixty-eight points lights my blue touch-paper!

3.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (11/4) winner.

4.20: Two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) thus far.

4.50: Three-year-olds have won all four renewals whilst securing nine of the ten available toteplacepot positions.  Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two of the four winners.

5.20: Richard Hannon has declared two runners for this event but I should warn you that Richard is responsible for all four beaten favourites in the race to date.  Three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (7/2 & 11/8) winners.

6.20: All seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. We still await the first successful favourite in this event, whilst four of the nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

6.50: The three favourites to date have secured two gold and one bronze medal.  The two winners were sent off at 9/2 and 100/30, whilst the third placed market leader was returned at 11/2.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Trainer Pat Phelan is back among the winners and Pat’s sixty points of level stake profits during the last five years at Lingfield catch the eye.

Well I Declare: 4th to 8th December

Well I Declare, 4th December

Well I Declare, 4th December

We can certainly start off with some positive stats relating to the Hennessy Gold Cup result last week.

Nine of the last ten winners have now won at odds of 10/1 or less.
Four of the last eleven favourites have won.

This stat (best of all) was also offered last Tuesday:

Five of the last six winners ran off a minimal office mark of 150.
Only four horses in the handicap raced off a mark of 150+:  166 Tidal Bay (2nd 8/1)---162 Roberto Goldback (Fell)---160 Bobs Worth (WON AT 4/1)---159 First Lieutenant (3rd 12/1).

The Trifecta dividend paid: £567.70
This week’s ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting at Sandown:

Just three trainers saddled a brace of winners over the course of the two-day fixture in 2011: Paul Nicholls (5/2* & 4/11*), Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 11/4) and Nicky Henderson (8/1 & 11/4**).  Paul Nicholls was the only trainer to saddle two (2/1** & 11/4) beaten favourites.

Paul Nicholls has a strangle hold on the ‘Tingle Creek’ having saddled seven recent winners, whilst landing three renewals of the Henry VIII Novice Chase which is also contested on the Saturday of the meeting.

Favourites have won six renewals of the Tingle Creek during the last decade, whilst three favourites have obliged in the Novice Chase event.

Three of the four odds on favourites have won the ‘Tingle Creek’ during the study period, whilst just two of the five odds on market leaders in the ‘Henry VIII’ have prevailed.  The beaten hot-pots were saddled by Emma Lavelle, Paul Nicholls and Alan King.

Leading NH trainer returns (10 winners or more during the month) in December 2011:

36 winners—N. Henderson (32% strike rate): Hurdles: 21/67--Chases: 13/38--Bumpers: 2/8

20--Paul Nicholls (21%)--11/48--8/43--1/4

19--Donald McCain (19%)--11/62--4/28--4/10

13--Jonjo O’Neill (15%)--8/52--4/31--1/3

13--David Pipe (15%)--8/60--3/27--2/8

13--Alan King (15%)--8/49--5/33--0/6

12--Tim Vaughan (21%)--7/39--3/14--2/5

11--P. Hobbs (19%)--5/31--5/23--¼

 

Leading trainers on the all-weather circuits since the end of the turf season this year (up to and including Monday 3rd November):

6--M. Botti (2/5*--11/4--Evs*--7/2--11/2--5/4*)

6--K. Dalgleish (9/1--9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*)

6--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--5/4*--Evs*--11/4*)

5--A. Balding (11/10*--4/5*--11/4*--11/4--4/1**)

5--Sir M. Prescott (4/9*--11/8*--8/11*--4/5*--10/11*)

5--John Ryan (9/2--33/1--3/1**--15/8--7/2)

5--Kevin Ryan (9/2--5/1--7/2**--4/1--11/10*)

4--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--7/2**--20/1)

4--Mrs K. Burke (5/1--7/1--5/4*--3/1)

4--E. Dunlop (15/8*--11/4*--7/2--5/4*)

 

Leading trainers at the four individual venues:

Kempton:

4--A. Balding (11/10*--11/4*--11/4--4/1**)

3--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--20/1)

2--Mrs K. Burke (3/1 & 5/4*)

2--R. Charlton (3/1* & 11/10*)

2--R. Cowell (25/1 & 7/1)

2--D. Evans (7/1 & 2/1)

2--R. Harris (7/4* & 11/2)

2--J.S. Moore (4/1 & 8/1)

2--H. Morrison (5/4* & 8/1)

2--J. Ryan (33/1 & 3/1**)

 

Lingfield:

2--M. Botti (2/5* & 11/4)

2--G. Moss (12/1 & 9/4)

2--J. Noseda (9/4* & 7/1)

2--K. Ryan (9/2 & 7/2**)

2--S.C. Williams (7/2* & 4/1***)

 

Wolverhampton:

5--K. Dalgleish (9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*)

5--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--11/4*--Evs*)

3--M. Botti (Evs*--7/2--5/4*)

3--M. Easterby (12/1--13/2--7/2)

3--J. Ryan (9/2--15/8--7/2)

2--T. Clement (5/1 & 15/8)

2--E. Dunlop (15/8* & 11/4*)

2--C. Hills (8/1 & 4/1)

2--Sir M. Prescott (4/5* & 10/11*)

2--J. Tate (9/2 & 2/1*)

 

Southwell (albeit that no further racing will take place until next year):

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2--M. Bell (10/1 & 4/9*)

2--D. Nicholls (7/2* & 8/1)

 

DAY TO DAY ANALYSIS:

TUESDAY (04/12):

Folkestone:

General stats: Warren Greatrex (two runners on the card) boasts a 40% strike rate at the track via eight winners.  Tony McCoy rides Westward Point in the 2.00 event, with the champion jockey having scored on seven of his nine rides for the trainer!

 

Towcester:

General stats: John Ferguson saddles Caymen Islands in the 2.20 contest, with John having scored with two of his four runners at the venue thus far.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Minimee (3.10) is Roger Varian’s only declared runner on Tuesday, with Roger boasting a 11/29 ratio at the track.  Keith Dalgleish boasts a 21% record at Wolverhampton which has produced fifty points of level stake profits in recent times.  Keith saddled a 33/1 treble at the track on Monday for good measure.

1.40: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the four renewals to date, whilst we still await the first successful favourite.  Two of the market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions however, with the biggest priced winner scoring at just 6/1 thus far.

2.10: Favourites have won both renewals to date.

2.40: Three-year-olds have secured seven of the eight renewals, whilst four favourite have scored thus far.  The biggest priced winner was recorded at just 8/1.

4.10: The three favourites have secured two gold and one silver medal, whilst three-year-olds have secured six of the eight win and place positions, statistics which include two of the three gold medallists at 7/2 and 2/5.

4.40 & 5.10 (two divisions): Just one favourite has prevailed via the last seven contests.

 

WEDNESDAY (05/12):

Catterick:

General stats: Brian Ellison has won with four of the eleven runners he has saddled at Catterick under the NH code in recent times. 

 

Hereford:

General stats: Rebecca Curtis, Nicky Henderson and Jim Best all boast 33% strike rates with a decent amount of runners, whilst trainers with impressive ratios with less raiders include Alistair Lidderdale (3/6), Richard Woolacott (2/3) and John Ferguson (2/5).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Although the relevant 11% strike rate is nothing to write home about, Jo Crowley’s LSP figure of sixty-eight points lights my blue touch-paper!

3.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (11/4) winner.

4.20: Two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) thus far.

4.50: Three-year-olds have won all four renewals whilst securing nine of the ten available toteplacepot positions.  Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two of the four winners.

5.20: Richard Hannon has declared two runners for this event but I should warn you that Richard is responsible for all four beaten favourites in the race to date.  Three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (7/2 & 11/8) winners.

6.20: All seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. We still await the first successful favourite in this event, whilst four of the nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

6.50: The three favourites to date have secured two gold and one bronze medal.  The two winners were sent off at 9/2 and 100/30, whilst the third placed market leader was returned at 11/2.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Trainer Pat Phelan is back among the winners and Pat’s sixty points of level stake profits during the last five years at Lingfield catch the eye. 

 

THURSDAY (06/12):

Leicester:

General stats: Tony McCoy’s 43% strike rate (via twenty winners) stands head and shoulders above his rivals whilst on the training front, both Fergal O’Brian and Richard Harper boast 2/2 ratios.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Couple Nicky Henderson’s strike rate in December last year (see stats above) with his 41% ratio here at Market Rasen and you have a recipe for plenty of winners.

 

Wincanton:

General stats: Tim Vaughan (24% strike rate) and Emma Lavelle (22%) are emerging as understudies to the lead role of Paul Nicholls (27%) at Wincanton via recent results.

Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.40: All nine winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 11-4 during which time, five winners were returned at odds ranging between 16/1 and 50/1.  Four five-year-olds won during the study period, accompanied by just two successful market leaders who represented the vintage.

Class 4 ‘Silver Buck’ handicap chase event due to be contested at 2.10: Last year’s 2/1 market leader could only finish second (beaten three lengths) following six consecutive successful favourites.

Two mile Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Fiver-year-olds secured six of the nine contests during the last decade during which time, seven winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  Three joint favourites have obliged though successful clear favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.

Wincanton’s closing conditional jockey’s event set for 3.40: Favourites have won four of the eight renewals, whilst Venetia Williams has won with her last two runners in the contest.  At the time of writing, Venetia only had Last Shot entered up in the race.

 

Lingfield (transferred from Wolverhampton):

General stats: The 46% strike rate of favourites in the non handicap sector at Lingfield stands close inspection, whilst the 33% ratio of market leaders in three-year-old handicaps is a perfectly decent return during the last five years. 

 

FRIDAY (07/12):

Sandown:

General stats: David Arbuthnot does not saddle many horses these days (especially under the NH code) whereby his three potential runners at Sandown on Friday attract the eye, especially as David boasts a 25% strike rate at the venue during the last five years.  David has secured an LSP reading of eleven points during the study period for good measure. 

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.50: Favourites have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade, whilst seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  That said, hot favourites at 1/4 and 4/5 have been beaten from a win perspective, albeit the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at just 8/1.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase due to be contested at 1.20:  The last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 during which time, three market leaders prevailed.

Grade 2 two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Four and five-year-olds have secured four victories apiece via the last nine renewals, whilst Paul Nicholls and Alan have both ‘bagged a brace’.  Although only one favourite has scored via the last five contests, four market leaders have won during the study period with the biggest priced winner returned at just 11/2.  Seven of the nine favourites secured toteplacepot positions.

Listed ‘Future Stars’ steeplechase scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals with course winner Pacha Du Polder potentially representing the yard this time around.  Seven-year-olds have secured five victories during the period, with Grove Pride hopefully taking part as Henry Daly’s gelding attempts to secure a hat trick in terms of vintage representatives.

Class 4 two miles handicap hurdle for novices due to be contested at 3.40: Five-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals of Sandown’s scheduled finale.  Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more, statistics which include the last six gold medallists.

 

Exeter:

General stats: There are not too many racecourses where Tony McCoy’s ratio of winners is usurped but with Jason Maguire sitting on the 28% mark at Exeter, even the champion jockey has played ‘second fiddle’ in recent years. 

Nineteen furlong conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 1.00: Six-year-olds have won six renewals during the last decade during which time, two favourites have prevailed.  The last eight winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Nineteen furlong novice chase event due to be contested at 1.30: Six-year-olds again rule the roost as vintage representatives have snared four of the last five renewals.  Four favourites have won via eight contests with the biggest priced winner returned at just 6/1.  Philip Hobbs is the only trainer to have saddled two winners and Philip’s only entry earlier in the week was six-year-old Fingal Bay.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.05: Some readers might suggest that six nine-year-old winners of this event during the last decade can be put down to pure coincidence though if that is so, why do plenty of professionals within the sport suggest that only nine and ten-year-olds should be seriously considered in the Grand National?  The vintage records of the relevant raiders down the years have been proved right via a general rule of thumb whereby I will stick to the principle in this extreme marathon event, albeit only two of the sixteen five-day acceptors were nine-year-olds!  No successful favourites were recorded during the last decade, with just one of the last six market leaders having finished in the frame.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle ‘qualifier’ scheduled for 2.40: Five-year-olds have secured seven victories during the last decade, with four-year-olds ‘mopping up’ the other three events.  Only two favourites have won during the study period though that said, nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Workbench was the only potential Paul Nicholls runner in the race earlier in the week, Paul being the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions in recent times.

Class 4, three-mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade whilst just two favourites have obliged.  The last eight winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  Only one of the last fifteen runners sent off at 11/1 or more has finished in the frame (no winners).

Exeter’s closing bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Four favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven gold medallists were returned at odds of 7/2 or less.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: John Gosden’s 23% strike rate is backed up by an LSP figure of twenty-five points during the last five years.

 

SATURDAY (08/12):

Sandown:

General stats: Five favourites (of one description or another) won via twelve races during the two-day meeting last year, whilst two of the four odds on favourites obliged. 

National Hunt Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 12.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last six winners of this event with the trainer coming to the gig on this occasion on a four timer.  All four winners saddled by Nicky were five-year-old and two of his three entries earlier in the week hailed from that vintage.  Favourites came to the party on a six timer last year but the 4/6 market leader could only finish third.

Pertemps series qualifier scheduled for 1.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled the only two successful favourites (in the last four years) during the decade.  Paul held two entries for the contest earlier in the week, as did Jonjo O’Neill who is the only other trainer to have saddled two winners during the study period.

Listed Handicap Hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two winning favourites), whilst four-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests.

Twenty nine furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: The last six winners have carried a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst the eight successful horses during the last decade ranged between 7/2 and 10/1, with not a single favourite amongst them.

 

Aintree:

General stats: The Murphy yard is potentially represented by the course and distance winner Quito De La Roque in the scheduled 1.50 event with the stable looking to improve its ratio to 3/3 at Aintree.

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.00: Favourites have secured two of the five renewals of this event in which three market leaders have finished in the frame.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.35: Six-year-olds have won six renewals of this event during the last decade.  Last year’s successful 5/1 favourite was the first to score in seven years since back to back 5/1 joint market leaders obliged in 2003/2004.   Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5.

‘Becher Chase’ due to be contested at 2.10: Just like last week’s ‘Hennessy’, this race is finally being won by fancied horses on a semi regular basis following years of renewals which favoured the bookmakers.  Only one market leader has obliged in the last seven years though that said, seven of the last nine contests have been secured by horses sent off at odds of 10/1 or less.  Unusually, Paul Nicholls was potentially represented by just one horse in this year’s event, a race which Paul has secured three times in the last eight years.  Join Together is the horse in question.

Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.45: Four renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded following the success of four consecutive market leaders (of one description or another) between 2004 and 2007.  Four-year-olds have been the most successful vintage (four winners during the last decade) though that said, just three of the twenty-two five-day acceptors hailed from the junior ranks.

‘Grand Sefton’ event scheduled for 3.20: Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals, whilst five contests have passed without a successful favourite being registered.  That said, five of the nine favourites have secured win and place positions which is a decent enough record in this type of event.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: Tim Easterby does not lead the strike rate figures, though his regular winners at Wetherby are backed up by an LSP reading of twenty-six points.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: John O’Shea’s LSP figure of eighty-one points demands attention.

Well I Declare: 28th November

Well I Declare: 28th November

Well I Declare: 28th November

No UK turf racing today, but we do have all-weather action from Kempton and Lingfield, whilst Wolverhampton now hosts the rescheduled Southwell fixture on...

...WEDNESDAY 28/11:

Kempton:

General stats: I don’t enjoy offering negative statistics though if they save readers money, I am duty bound to head in that direction.  Although both Richard Hannon and Gary Moore offer strike rates of 14% at Kempton, the respective level stake losses for the trainers during the last five years stands at one hundred and forty-six and one hundred and eighteen points.

4.30 & 5.00 (two divisions): The three winners to date have carried weights of 9-4 or more when returned at odds of 20/1-14/1-10/1.

5.30: Both gold medallists thus far have been sent off as 5/4 favourites for their respective events.

6.00: All five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners.

6.30: Four renewals have slipped by since a successful favourite was recorded since the inaugural market leaders obliged at 9/4 back in 2007.

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7.00: We still await the first successful market leader following three contests in which two favourites have secured silver medals, with the other ‘jolly’ finishing out of the money.  All three winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12.

7.30: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five contests whilst just one (11/4) favourite has prevailed via six renewals thus far.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda, Garry Moss, Marco Botti and Kevin Ryan are the only trainers at Lingfield to have saddled more than one winner (two each) since the ‘new A/W season’ started when the turf campaign finished.  Nineteen favourites (of one description or another) and won via thirty-two races (59.4% ratio), whilst three of the four odds on market leaders have won.

12.00 & 12.30 (two divisions): Four of the eight renewals have been secured by favourites.

1.00: Two favourites have won five contests, though it’s worth pointing out that the last two gold medallists have scored at 66/1 and 25/1.

1.30: All six winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 whilst last year’s successful market leader was the first favourite to oblige.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.10: The six winners have scored at 16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-6/1-9/2 thus far.  Although this is not a toteplacepot position, it’s worth noting that the last four market leaders have finished in the frame.

3.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the twelve win and place positions, statistics which include two of the four winners which were returned at 10/1 and 5/2 favourite. The other three market leaders all finished out with the washing.

 

Wolverhampton:

This is the transferred meeting from Southwell.

Well I Declare: 27/11 to 01/12

Well I Declare: 27th November

Well I Declare: 27th November

As well as our regular day-by-day analysis, we kick off this week's preview with some details about the upcoming three-day Hennessy meeting at Newbury, running from Thursday to Saturday. (Weather permitting, of course!)

Newbury’s Hennessy meeting details from last year:

Nineteen of the twenty winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.
Sixteen gold medallists were sent off at a maximum price of 6/1.

Favourites during the meeting (20 in total):
7 winners--4 placed--9 unplaced (Thurs: 3/7--Fri: 2/6--Sat: 2/7)
Three of the four odds on favourites obliged

Trainers with two or more winners:
5--Paul Nicholls (11/2, 7/2, Evs*, 1/2* & 1/8*)
2--Nicky Henderson (5/1 & Evs*)
2--Philip Hobbs (22/1 & 12/1)

Trainers of beaten favourites during the meeting:
6--Paul Nicholls
4--Nicky Henderson
One each for Jonjo O’Neill--Emma Lavelle--Fergal O’Brien

 

Day to date highlights (trainers):
Thursday:

12/1 double for Paul Nicholls

Saturday:
298/1 double for Philip Hobbs + second and third in the Hennessy at odds of 14/1 & 33/1
13/2 treble for Paul Nicholls

Toteplacepot dividends:
Thursday: £125.00----Friday: 29.80----Saturday: 118.60
10 year statistics for the Hennessy Gold Cup:
Eight of the last nine winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

Three favourites have won during the last decade with two other market leaders finishing in the frame.

The average official mark of the winners during the study period is 151.
Five of the last six winners ran off a minimal office mark of 150.
The nearest ‘qualifier’ this year is Planet Of Sound (152) who finished second last year at 14/1.
Only the top six horses in the handicap potentially race off a mark of 150+ via the five-day declarations:
169 Tidal Bay
162 Roberto Goldback
160 Bobs Worth
159 First Lieutenant
155 Junior
152 Planet of Sound.

Next highest: Hold On Julio and Lion Na Bearnai who are on 148.

Horse carrying eleven stones or less have secured five victories and nineteen places, compared to runners higher in the handicap who boast the same number of successes, though representatives have claimed just nine place prizes.

Popular trainer stats:

Paul Nicholls: Three winners (5/1-, 5/1** & 11/4*) and six placed horses at 28/1, 25/1, 7/1, 11/2*, 11/2 & 4/1*.
‘Team Pipe’: Two winners (25/1 & 9/4*) and four places (50/1, 25/1, 12/1 & 5/1).
Nicky Henderson: One winner (13/2) and three places (12/1, 15/2 & 13/2).
Philip Hobbs: Three placed horses at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1.

 

Day by day analysis:

TUESDAY 27/11:

Lingfield:

General stats: Dark And Dangerous (2.00) is Brendan Powell’s only ride on the Lingfield card at the time of writing, the jockey still trying to shake off last week’s Fakenham nightmare.  Things have gone much better for Brendan at this venue as his 2/3 ratio confirms. 

12.30:  Five-year-olds have won four of the last five contests, whilst five of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (2/7, 8/11 & 5/4) winners.

1.00:  All seven winners have carried a minimum of 11-2 thus far. Only two of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals with just one (6/4) gold medallist having prevailed.

1.30:  Five-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date and with the Philip Hobbs stable moving into good form as is usually the case en route to Newbury’s Hennessy meeting, De La Bach can figure prominently on behalf of the yard.  Five of the seven market leaders have finished in the money, statistics which include two (4/9 & 7/2) successful favourites.

2.00:  Aikideau is the only declared horse to have won on heavy ground in the past whereby Richard Rowe might boost his Hennessy Gold Cup chance (Tatenen) by saddling a winner in this contest.

2.30:  The last six winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more which eliminates the bottom five horses if you take the stats seriously.  Four favourites have won during the last six years.

3.00: Six-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals thus far, with Sapphire Rouge being this year’s only vintage representative.  Three market leaders have obliged via seven contests.

3.30:  Both (7/2 & 1/2) favourites have obliged in Lingfield’s finale.

 

WEDNESDAY 28/11:

Kempton:

General stats: I don’t enjoy offering negative statistics though if they save readers money, I am duty bound to head in that direction.  Although both Richard Hannon and Gary Moore offer strike rates of 14% at Kempton, the respective level stake losses for the trainers during the last five years stands at one hundred and forty-six and one hundred and eighteen points.

4.30 & 5.00 (two divisions): The three winners to date have carried weights of 9-4 or more when returned at odds of 20/1-14/1-10/1.

5.30: Both gold medallists thus far have been sent off as 5/4 favourites for their respective events.

6.00: All five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners.

6.30: Four renewals have slipped by since a successful favourite was recorded since the inaugural market leaders obliged at 9/4 back in 2007.

7.00: We still await the first successful market leader following three contests in which two favourites have secured silver medals, with the other ‘jolly’ finishing out of the money.  All three winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12.

7.30: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five contests whilst just one (11/4) favourite has prevailed via six renewals thus far.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda, Garry Moss, Marco Botti and Kevin Ryan are the only trainers at Lingfield to have saddled more than one winner (two each) since the ‘new A/W season’ started when the turf campaign finished.  Nineteen favourites (of one description or another) and won via thirty-two races (59.4% ratio), whilst three of the four odds on market leaders have won.

12.00 & 12.30 (two divisions): Four of the eight renewals have been secured by favourites.

1.00: Two favourites have won five contests, though it’s worth pointing out that the last two gold medallists have scored at 66/1 and 25/1.

1.30: All six winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 whilst last year’s successful market leader was the first favourite to oblige.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.10: The six winners have scored at 16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-6/1-9/2 thus far.  Although this is not a toteplacepot position, it’s worth noting that the last four market leaders have finished in the frame.

3.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the twelve win and place positions, statistics which include two of the four winners which were returned at 10/1 and 5/2 favourite. The other three market leaders all finished out with the washing.

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Wolverhampton:

This is the transferred meeting from Southwell.

 

THURSDAY 29/11:

Kempton:

General stats: Richard Rowe has saddled seven of his twelve winners on the flat in recent times here at Kempton where the trainer has produced an LSP figure of forty one points.

 

Newbury:

General stats: As the three-day Hennessy meeting starts, is as well to focus on the fact that just six trainers have saddled ‘double figures’ in terms of the number winners at Newbury during the last five years.  Strikes rates in brackets: 52 Nicky Henderson (22%)--42 Paul Nicholls (22%)--19 Philip Hobbs (13%)--18 Alan King (11%)--11 David Pipe (13%)--10 Tom George (16%).

Novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.30: Five and six years olds have shared the last six (of seven) renewals of this event (five-year-olds lead 4-2), notwithstanding 15 of a total of 22 available toteplacepot positions.  All seven winners have carried weights of 10-12 or more to date.  Five-year-old’s come to this year’s gig on a hat trick whilst two favourites have obliged thus far.

Three mile novice chase scheduled for 2.05: Six-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last eight contests, whilst last year’s successful market layer scored at odds of 2/7 which was scant reward for favourite backers who has endured beaten ‘jollies’ throughout the decade leading up to the 2012 renewal.

‘Gerry Fielden’ event scheduled for 3.15: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less, whilst nine of the last fourteen favourites have reached the frame (four winners).

Bumper event scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds have won all nine renewals, though only the last three contests have been open for other vintage representatives.   Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last six renewals and the local trainer held two options earlier in the week.

 

Taunton:

General stats: The 37% strike rate of Paul Nicholls obviously holds centre stage, though John Ferguson’s 2/2 record at Taunton (two entries on the card on Sunday) obviously catches the eye.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Dr Richard Newland has his team at the top of their game and with the trainer boasting a 32% at the track, Richard’s only entry earlier in the week was Ardkilly Witness in the scheduled 12.15 event.

Three mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.20: Six-year-olds have claimed five of the seven contests, whilst six winners were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites.

 

FRIDAY 30/11:

Doncaster:

General stats: James Ewert held no fewer than twelve entries at Doncaster for the weekend, the trainer boasting stats of 6/16, figures which have produced twenty-one points of level stake profits.  This was a particularly interesting scenario given that James had saddled just eight runners during the first twenty-five days of the month (one winner).

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Only four of the potentially represented trainers have saddled ten or more winners at Musselburgh in the last five years (strike rates in brackets): 14 Lucinda Russell (12%)--13 Donald McCain (23%)--12 Jim Goldie (12%)--12 Ferdy Murphy (13%).  Jim boasts the only LSP figure of the quartet.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.10: All eight winners have carried weights of 10-10 or more.  Three of the last four favourites have prevailed.

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.40:  Two market leaders have obliged in this contest via seven renewals.

Class 5 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.45: Four-year-olds have secured four of the seven renewals thus far with six-year-olds having registered three victories.  Four favourites have won whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at just 4/1.

Class 3 two-mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.20: Six and seven-year-olds had won all seven contests (6YO led 4-3) before the trend went ‘belly up’ twelve months ago.  Just two market leaders have obliged thus far.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.25: Favourites have won six of the eight renewals to date, the same stats that four-year-olds boast in the contest.  A sobering statistic however relates to last year’s 80/1 gold medallist!

 

Newbury:

General stats: Barafundle was the only entry on the card of Jenny Candlish earlier in the week, with the trainer boasting stats of 2/7 at Newbury in recent times, figures which have produced thirteen points of level stake profits.  For the record, Jenny had French Ties involved on Saturday’s card at the time of writing.

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 1.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled just seven runners in the last ten renewals of this novice hurdle event, and three of the Ditcheat raiders have snared gold, though his last two favourites (1/4 & 6/4) have ‘only‘ secured silver medals.  Paul held two options at the five-day stage.  Seven favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst thirteen of the last fifteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.  Eleven of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 2.05: Nicky Henderson has secured five of the last twelve renewals and the trainer’s only entry at the five-day stage was his Ascot winner Hadrain’s Approach.  Five favourites have won during the last decade, whilst the last fourteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the extended study period.

‘Pertemps’ three mile qualifier scheduled for 2.40: Six of the seven favourites to date secured toteplacepot positions (five winners), with market leaders coming to this year’s gig on a five-timer.

Class 3 Maiden Hurdle scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst Nicky Henderson has claimed three victories during the last decade.  Six of the eleven favourites have won to date, the other four starting prices being returned at 50/1-16/1-8/1-11/2-7/2.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: It took a while (Saturday) for Simon Dow to register a victory since the end of the turf season but now that he has, Simon’s 6/18 ratio here at Dunstall Park during the last five years is worth noting.  Simon has produced seventeen points of level stake profits during the period.

 

SATURDAY 01/12:

Bangor:

General stats: Only six of the potentially represented trainers at Bangor on Saturday have saddled more than fourteen winners at Bangor during the last five years (Strike rate in brackets): 65 Donald McCain (20%)--28 Jonjo O’Neill (11%)--18 Alan King (20%)--18 Nicky Henderson (30%)--16 Tim Vaughan (19%)--15 Rebecca Curtis (27%).

 

Newbury:

General stats: Nick Williams only has two entries at the three-day meeting, with Diamond Harry and Alfie Spinner both due to contest the Hennessy Gold Cup, with ‘Harry’ having won the big handicap two years ago at odds of 6/1.  Nick’s ratio at Newbury stands at 27% via eight winners at the Berkshire venue.

Amateur riders’ handicap chase event scheduled for 12.15: All five winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, whilst three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 9/1.

Grade 2 ‘Long Distance Hurdle’ scheduled for 2.35: Big Bucks comes into the race on a four timer.  Ten of the last 13 favourites have won this World Hurdle ‘trial’, whilst thirteen of the last fifteen winners were returned at 6/1 or less.  Thirteen of the last fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Additional stats (see the opening paragraphs for the main facts and figures) for the Hennessy Gold Cup which is scheduled for 3.10:  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals of the Hennessy Gold Cup. Four favourites have won the Hennessy Gold Cup in the last 15 years, though just two of the other eleven market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Jim Joel Trophy’ scheduled for 3.40: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last fourteen contests.  Paul Nicholls (three) and Nicky Henderson (two) have secured five of the last eight contests between them.  Four of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.  Fourteen of the last fifteen winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Two 25/1 winners have emerged in the ’Fighting Fifth’ during the last nine years.  Tony McCoy was due to partner Darlan in the race at the time of writing with Tony’s recent ratio standing at 4/11 at Gosforth Park.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.45: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals.  Sue Smith has saddled 14/1 and 2/1* winners in the last two renewals in which the trainer has been represented.  Sue’s only option this year is her Kayf Tara gelding Papa Curuso.

‘Fighting Fifth’ scheduled for 2.20: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals and half of this year’s six declarations potentially represent the vintage this time around.  Donald McCain (Cinders And Ashes) comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

‘Rehearsal Chase’ scheduled for 3.25: Eight-year-olds have won the last three contests, whilst three favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.

 

Towcester:

General stats: Zermatt would be an interesting horse in the closing bumper event if given the green light by trainer John Quinn.  John has saddled three of the six runners he has sent to Towcester to winning effect in recent times.  Of the popular (potentially represented) trainers who saddle plenty of winners at the venue, Alan King (25%) and David Pipe (24%) head the strike rates during the last five years.

Novice Hurdle event for mares scheduled for 12.25: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a five-timer on this occasion.  The last three favourites have obliged, as have five of the last seven market leaders.

Novice hurdle qualifier scheduled for 2.45: Five-year-olds have dominated this race of late, securing six of the last nine contests.  Four renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged when lading a hat trick of victories for market leaders.

Three mile handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 2.10: Just two (5/4 & 7/4) market leaders have prevailed via the last eight renewals, which equates to a level stake loss of three points during the period.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jamie Osborne is the leading trainer on three winners (at the start of the week) at Wolverhampton since the end of the turf season.  Jamie’s winners have scored at 20/1, 13/2 & 11/8*.  Fifteen market leaders (including joint and co favourites) had won via forty races (37.5%) at the time of writing, whilst four of the five odds on favourites have scored.


Well I Declare: 24th November

Well I Declare: 24th November

Well I Declare: 24th November

There's a busy programme of racing today and here's a reminder of Mal Boyle's preview of the action from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Lingfield and Wolverhampton on...

...SATURDAY 24/11:

Ascot:

General stats: Aside from Nicky Henderson’s great record at Ascot (39 winners during the last five years), Jamie Snowdon stands out from the crowd.  James has saddled three of his four runners to winning effect and Marodima (scheduled to contest the 3.40 event) was Jamie’s only option at the two-day meeting earlier in the week.

Two mile six novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.25: Six-year-olds have won two of the three races to date whilst securing four of the nine each way/toteplacepot positions.  This is an impressive ratio given that just nine vintage representatives have contested the race thus far.

Grade 2 Chase scheduled for 2.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last nine winners.  Ghizao was Paul’s only entry at the five-day stage.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.55: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, securing nine of the twelve available win and place positions during the period.

 

Haydock:

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General stats: Colin Tizzard has saddled three of his last nine runners at Haydock to winning effect and the trainer held three options for Saturday’s meeting earlier in the week. 

Bumper event scheduled for 1.25: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a five-timer, whilst Donald McCain has saddled two of the last three winners.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: All five winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Betfair Chase scheduled for 3.05: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last four winners though as you are probably aware, the horse was each occasion was the brilliant Kauto Star.  Paul was responsible for two of the nine five-day declarations on Monday, namely Silviniaco Conti and Tidal Bay.  Four of the last six favourites have obliged.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: With stats of 35/105 in recent years, Nicky Henderson rules the roost at Huntingdon.  Record of favourites in non handicap events at Huntingdon during the last five years: Hurdles: 45%--Chases: 46%.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe is saddling plenty of winners just now and Tom’s record here at Lingfield in recent years: 26% strike rate--LSP figure of fifty-nine points.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian continues to offer punters hope at Dunstall Park having saddled eleven winners from just twenty-nine runners at the track, producing an LSP figure of twenty-six points.

Well I Declare: 23rd November

Well I Declare: 23rd November

Well I Declare: 23rd November

Mal Boyle's daily racing preview covers the action planned for Ascot, Ffos Las, Haydock and Wolverhampton today, it's...

...FRIDAY 23/11:

Ascot:

General stats: Nicky Henderson targets Ascot meetings to fantastic effect, especially in the hurdle sector.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 1.30: Favourites have won all four renewals to date, with Nicky Henderson potentially coming to the gig on a hat trick.  Nicky held two options at the time of writing.

Two mile three handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last five contests.  I highlighted the (previous) fact twelve months ago (3/4 at the time) and one of just two vintage representatives on the day scored at 20/1.  Just five of this year’s twenty eight potential runners were seven-year-olds at the time of writing.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds came into last year’s race on a four-timer, though the lone vintage representative finished out of the money at 6/1.  Hopefully the race will revert to type this time around if more vintage raiders are entered at the final stage.

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Anthony Honeyball held six options for the meeting earlier in the week, the trainer boasting outstanding figures of 5/11, statistics which have produced seven points of level stake profits at Ffos Las.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Donald McCain has saddled at least three times the number of winners than any other potentially represented trainer over the course of the two-day meeting.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mary Frith was entered in two races at Wolverhampton on Friday night, William Knight’s only potential runner at Dunstall Park towards the end of the week.  William’s 23% strike rate via eleven winners is far better than most trainers achieve in the ‘Black Country’.

Well I Declare: 22nd November

Well I Declare: 22nd November

Well I Declare: 22nd November

Today's action comes from Hereford, Kempton, Market Rasen and Wincanton and here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's preview of...

...THURSDAY 22/11:

Hereford:

General stats: Professeur Emery was the only potential runner on the card hailing from the stable of Warren Greatrex which boasts a 31% strike rate at Hereford.  The ratio improves to 37.5% in the relevant hurdle sector at the track. 

 

Kempton:

General stats:  James Fanshawe only had one runner entered this week at the time of writing and it was here at Kempton where James enjoys a 21% strike rate which is backed up by fifty-eight points of level stake profits.  Spensely is entered for the scheduled 6.10 event.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: O Crotaigh (scheduled to contest the 2.10 event) was Alan Brown’s only potential runner, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 27% at the racecourse. Otherwise, this is very much Nicky Henderson’s domain.

 

Wincanton:

General stats: The world and his dog knows to respect each and every runner saddled  by Paul Nicholls at this venue, whilst the 33% strike rate of Rebecca Curtis demands plenty of respect.

Two mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.30: Eight renewals have slipped by without a winning favourites being registered.

Two mile six furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last eight winners with the trainer holding three options this time around.  Philip Hobbs has two runners entered in the race having secured two winners during the Nicholls (virtual) domination of the contest.

Three miles three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.30: Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured six of the seven contests.  Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick on this occasion, the first market leaders having been beaten.

Well I Declare: 21st November

Well I Declare: 21st November

Well I Declare: 21st November

Hexham, Kempton, Lingfield and Warwick come under the watchful eye of Mal Boyle today as he assesses the action scheduled for...

...WEDNESDAY 21/11:

Hexham:

General stats: Decent ratios are hard to come by at Hexham but Hobb’s Dream might be worth a saver if given the green light to contest the scheduled 12.50 event.  Neil Mulholland is a very rare raider and the eight-year-old will be attempting to maintain Neil’s one hundred per cent record at the track by securing his second winner!

Juvenile maiden hurdle due to be contested at 12.40: Six of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via six renewals (three winners), whilst the biggest priced gold medallist to date was returned at 7/1.

Class 5 handicap hurdle event over two and a half miles scheduled for 2.40: Six of the eight winners have carried weights of 11-1 or less.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Marco Botti has his runners in fine form just now and the trainer boasts over twenty-two points of level stake profits at Kempton to date. 

 

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Lingfield:

General stats: Tobago (3.00) is saddled by Lady Herries (only runner this week at the time of writing) who boasts a 26% strike rate at Lingfield during the last five years.

12.30: Favourites have secured five of the last nine renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner was sent off at just 11/2 during the period.

1.00: Ten winners during the last eleven year have won at odds of 13/2 or less (four successful favourites), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.

1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Three of the five winners to date were returned at 33/1--33/1--25/1 whilst eleven of the fifteen available each way/toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses starting at 7/1 or more.

 

Warwick: ABANDONED

General stats: Jennie Candlish and Lucy Wadham both boast 2/6 stats whilst showing a slight LSP profit at Warwick thus far.

Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for12.50: Five and six-year-olds have dominated this event during the last eleven years, five-year-olds leading 5-4 during the period with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a four timer.

Twenty one furlong novice hurdle event due to be contests at 1.50: Henry Daly saddled back-to-back winners of this race in 2006/2007, whereby Lord Grantham (Henry’s only option at the weekend) would be of interest if the five-year-old was offered the green light.  Perhaps of particular interest, given the fact that five-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

National Hunt novice hurdle over two miles scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eight renewals and a 12/1 chance was the shortest priced vintage representative in the year that four-year-olds ‘missed out’.  Out of interest, an 18/1 four-year-old finished third that year (2010).

Three and a quarter-mile chase scheduled for 3.20: Six favourites have prevailed during the eleven years whilst the same number of gold medallists carried weights of 11-0 or more, as have ten of the last fifteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Well I Declare: 20th to 24th November

Well I Declare: 20th November

Well I Declare: 20th November

Last week’s initial information should have put readers on the right road at the start of the Open Meeting with Paul Nicholls and David Pipe running riot on the opening day.

The A/W facts were also on interest given the good ratio of ratio of favourites as predicted in this column.

Last year’s favourite stats in the opening week (as offered last week):

Number of favourites: 69
Winners: 23 (33.3%)
Ten Odds on favourites: 7 winners

This year:

Number of favourites: 77
Winners: 29 (37.7%)
Ten Odds on favourites: 6 winners

I thought I would offer the names of trainers who saddled more than one winner during the opening week of the ‘new season’, whilst offering negative factors regarding beaten favourites at one and the same time.  Selected trainers who have drawn a blank thus far nestle in between the two lists.

Trainers with more than one winner during the opening week of this A/W season (up to and including Monday 19th November):

4/12--M. Botti (2/5*--11/4--Evs*--7/2)
3/7--Saeed Bin Suroor (9/2--5/4*--7/2**)
3/8--R. Varian (1/3*--Evs*--11/8*)
2/4--G. Baker (8/11* & 8/1)
2/9--Tom Dascombe (7/1 & 15/8*)
2/6--E. Dunlop (15/8* & 11/4*)
2/4--J. Gosden (4/1** & 5/4)
2/10--D. Nicholls (7/2* & 8/1)
2/8--J. Osborne (13/2 & 20/1)
2/3--Sir M. Prescott (4/9* & 11/8*)
2/13--D. Simcock (7/4* & 11/10*)
2/4--S.C. Williams (7/2* & 1/2*)

Trainers yet to saddle a winner include (same period):

0/9--S. Kirk
0/8--I. Williams
0/7--B. Ellison & B. Smart
0/6--M. Attwater, M. Bradley, R. Harris, J. Jenkins & J. Tate
0/5--S. Dixon, D. Ivory, D. Haydn Jones, A. Lidderdale & Sir M. Stoute

Trainers with more than one beaten favourite (same period):

3--A. Balding (Evs--3/1**--3/1)
3--M. Johnston (7/2--7/4--11/4)
3--J. Osborne (11/4--9/2--15/8)
2--M. Botti (4/1 & 7/2**)
2--T. Dascombe (10/11 & Evs)
2--D. Evans (11/2** & 3/1)
2--Saeed Bin Suroor (11/8 & 8/11)

If you look back at last week’s statistics, you will note that there were similarities:

Saeed Bin Suroor led the way with six winners in 2011--three winners this year
Tom Dascombe: three last year--two winners this year
John Gosden: Two winners last year--two this year

Corresponding results for week two--the forthcoming period (Tuesday through Monday):
Trainers who saddled three winners last year:

G.G. Margason: 13/2--11/4*--6/4*
John Ryan: 25/1--6/1--4/7*

Trainers with two winners to their names:
Michael Attwater: 7/1 & 4/1*
Marco Botti: 8/1 & 13/2
Tobias Coles: 8/1 & 13/2
Richard Hannon: 9/2 & 11/4*
Ron Harris: 16/1 & 8/1
Reg Hollinshead: 10/1 & 6/1
Alan McCabe: 5/1 & 5/6*
Alan Swinbank: 8/1 & 6/1
Jeremy Gask: 10/1 & 13/2

 

You might have noticed the lack of favourites as week two was nowhere near as productive for favourite backers compared to the previous week in 2011: 17/61 (27.9%)

Indeed, thirteen winners (21.3%) were returned in double figures, five of which ranged between 20/1 and 40/1.

 

Day by day analysis for this week:

TUESDAY 20/11:

Fakenham:

General stats: Killian Moore has won on two of the three horses he has ridden at Fakenham.  Tuesday’s only booked ride at the time of writing was Everdon Brook (3.30).

1.30: Horses carrying weights of 11-4 or more have secured four of the five renewals to date.  Four years have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since the inaugural 4/5 market leader obliged back in 2007.

2.30: Four-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals, whilst just one favourite has prevailed via the last eight contests.  Six of the last eight gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 11-1.

 

Folkestone:

General stats: Laura Mongan boasts a 25% strike rate at Folkestone which is backed up by an LSP figure of twenty-two points.  Laura’s only runner on the card on Tuesday is Pepito Collonges (2.10).

 

Southwell:

General stats: The fine northern based jockey Philip Makin rarely gets a look in via this column which is downright travesty but I’m pleased to report that via Philip’s sixty six winners from three hundred and nine mounts (21% strike rate--very good by Southwell standard), the pilot has somehow managed to achieve ‘black type’ from a level stake profit perspective, albeit just seven points.

12.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine contests during which time, just one market leader has obliged.  Eight of the last ten winners have prevailed at odds ranging between 13/2 and 25/1.

1.20: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals during the last decade.

2.20: One clear market leader alongside one joint favourite have secured victories via five renewals to date.  All five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

2.50: The last four market leaders have all finished in the frame, securing three gold and one silver medal in the process.

3.20 & 3.50 (two divisions): Three-year-olds have secured six of the last nine contests, statistics which include three of the last four renewals.  Junior raiders have secured seven of the last twelve available toteplacepot/each way positions.

 

WEDNESDAY 21/11:

Hexham:

General stats: Decent ratios are hard to come by at Hexham but Hobb’s Dream might be worth a saver if given the green light to contest the scheduled 12.50 event.  Neil Mulholland is a very rare raider and the eight-year-old will be attempting to maintain Neil’s one hundred per cent record at the track by securing his second winner!

Juvenile maiden hurdle due to be contested at 12.40: Six of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via six renewals (three winners), whilst the biggest priced gold medallist to date was returned at 7/1.

Class 5 handicap hurdle event over two and a half miles scheduled for 2.40: Six of the eight winners have carried weights of 11-1 or less.

 

Kempton:

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General stats: Marco Botti has his runners in fine form just now and the trainer boasts over twenty-two points of level stake profits at Kempton to date. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tobago (3.00) is saddled by Lady Herries (only runner this week at the time of writing) who boasts a 26% strike rate at Lingfield during the last five years.

12.30: Favourites have secured five of the last nine renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner was sent off at just 11/2 during the period.

1.00: Ten winners during the last eleven year have won at odds of 13/2 or less (four successful favourites), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.

1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Three of the five winners to date were returned at 33/1--33/1--25/1 whilst eleven of the fifteen available each way/toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses starting at 7/1 or more.

 

Warwick:

General stats: Jennie Candlish and Lucy Wadham both boast 2/6 stats whilst showing a slight LSP profit at Warwick thus far.

Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for12.50: Five and six-year-olds have dominated this event during the last eleven years, five-year-olds leading 5-4 during the period with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a four timer.

Twenty one furlong novice hurdle event due to be contests at 1.50: Henry Daly saddled back-to-back winners of this race in 2006/2007, whereby Lord Grantham (Henry’s only option at the weekend) would be of interest if the five-year-old was offered the green light.  Perhaps of particular interest, given the fact that five-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

National Hunt novice hurdle over two miles scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eight renewals and a 12/1 chance was the shortest priced vintage representative in the year that four-year-olds ‘missed out’.  Out of interest, an 18/1 four-year-old finished third that year (2010).

Three and a quarter-mile chase scheduled for 3.20: Six favourites have prevailed during the eleven years whilst the same number of gold medallists carried weights of 11-0 or more, as have ten of the last fifteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

THURSDAY 22/11:

Hereford:

General stats: Professeur Emery was the only potential runner on the card hailing from the stable of Warren Greatrex which boasts a 31% strike rate at Hereford.  The ratio improves to 37.5% in the relevant hurdle sector at the track. 

 

Kempton:

General stats:  James Fanshawe only had one runner entered this week at the time of writing and it was here at Kempton where James enjoys a 21% strike rate which is backed up by fifty-eight points of level stake profits.  Spensely is entered for the scheduled 6.10 event.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: O Crotaigh (scheduled to contest the 2.10 event) was Alan Brown’s only potential runner, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 27% at the racecourse. Otherwise, this is very much Nicky Henderson’s domain.

 

Wincanton:

General stats: The world and his dog knows to respect each and every runner saddled  by Paul Nicholls at this venue, whilst the 33% strike rate of Rebecca Curtis demands plenty of respect.

Two mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.30: Eight renewals have slipped by without a winning favourites being registered.

Two mile six furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last eight winners with the trainer holding three options this time around.  Philip Hobbs has two runners entered in the race having secured two winners during the Nicholls (virtual) domination of the contest.

Three miles three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.30: Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured six of the seven contests.  Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick on this occasion, the first market leaders having been beaten.

 

FRIDAY 23/11:

Ascot:

General stats: Nicky Henderson targets Ascot meetings to fantastic effect, especially in the hurdle sector.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 1.30: Favourites have won all four renewals to date, with Nicky Henderson potentially coming to the gig on a hat trick.  Nicky held two options at the time of writing.

Two mile three handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last five contests.  I highlighted the (previous) fact twelve months ago (3/4 at the time) and one of just two vintage representatives on the day scored at 20/1.  Just five of this year’s twenty eight potential runners were seven-year-olds at the time of writing.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds came into last year’s race on a four-timer, though the lone vintage representative finished out of the money at 6/1.  Hopefully the race will revert to type this time around if more vintage raiders are entered at the final stage.

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Anthony Honeyball held six options for the meeting earlier in the week, the trainer boasting outstanding figures of 5/11, statistics which have produced seven points of level stake profits at Ffos Las.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Donald McCain has saddled at least three times the number of winners than any other potentially represented trainer over the course of the two-day meeting.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mary Frith was entered in two races at Wolverhampton on Friday night, William Knight’s only potential runner at Dunstall Park towards the end of the week.  William’s 23% strike rate via eleven winners is far better than most trainers achieve in the ‘Black Country’.

 

SATURDAY 24/11:

Ascot:

General stats: Aside from Nicky Henderson’s great record at Ascot (39 winners during the last five years), Jamie Snowdon stands out from the crowd.  James has saddled three of his four runners to winning effect and Marodima (scheduled to contest the 3.40 event) was Jamie’s only option at the two-day meeting earlier in the week.

Two mile six novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.25: Six-year-olds have won two of the three races to date whilst securing four of the nine each way/toteplacepot positions.  This is an impressive ratio given that just nine vintage representatives have contested the race thus far.

Grade 2 Chase scheduled for 2.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last nine winners.  Ghizao was Paul’s only entry at the five-day stage.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.55: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, securing nine of the twelve available win and place positions during the period.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Colin Tizzard has saddled three of his last nine runners at Haydock to winning effect and the trainer held three options for Saturday’s meeting earlier in the week. 

Bumper event scheduled for 1.25: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a five-timer, whilst Donald McCain has saddled two of the last three winners.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: All five winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Betfair Chase scheduled for 3.05: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last four winners though as you are probably aware, the horse was each occasion was the brilliant Kauto Star.  Paul was responsible for two of the nine five-day declarations on Monday, namely Silviniaco Conti and Tidal Bay.  Four of the last six favourites have obliged.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: With stats of 35/105 in recent years, Nicky Henderson rules the roost at Huntingdon.  Record of favourites in non handicap events at Huntingdon during the last five years: Hurdles: 45%--Chases: 46%.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe is saddling plenty of winners just now and Tom’s record here at Lingfield in recent years: 26% strike rate--LSP figure of fifty-nine points.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian continues to offer punters hope at Dunstall Park having saddled eleven winners from just twenty-nine runners at the track, producing an LSP figure of twenty-six points.

Well I Declare, 15th November 2012

Well I Declare, 14/11/12

Well I Declare, 14/11/12

There's four UK meetings to consider today as we take a quick reminder at Mal Boyle's thoughts for...

...THURSDAY 15/11:

Kempton:

General stats: Michael (JM) Murphy has been one of the finds of the year relating to jockeys and his 26% strike rate here at Kempton is backed up by an LSP reading of fourteen points.

 

Ludlow:

Annual handicap chase over three miles scheduled for 2.00: During the last eleven years, nine of the ten winners were aged eight or more. Five favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at just 8/1.

 

Southwell:

General stats: With as many as seven potential runners over the two-day meeting, David Nicholls in obviously intent on improving his staggering 168 points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years.

 

Taunton:

Class 3 Novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: Paul Nicholls has saddled two of the last three winners in which he was represented in the race during the last four years and the Ditcheat based maestro only had Suerte Al Salto engaged at the time of writing.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.10: Four and five-year-olds have won the last eight renewals with the 'juniors' leading 5-3 during the period.  Only two favourites have obliged via eight renewals since the turn of the Millennium.  That said, the last eight winners have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less.

Well I Declare, 14th November 2012

Well I Declare, 14th November 2012

Well I Declare, 14th November 2012

Four meetings under consideration today, as I remind you of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the racing for...

...WEDNESDAY 14/11:

Bangor:

Class 3 Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: Horses carrying 11-8 or more have won four of the six renewals to date, whilst three of the eight favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include two winners.

Class 4 seventeen furlong novice hurdle event due to be contested at 3.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals thus far whilst seven of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Bumper finale scheduled for 4.10: Fourteen of forty favourites have won bumper races at Bangor during the last five years.

 

Exeter:

Class 4 twenty-one furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.40: Favourites have secured two gold, one silver medal and one bronze medal via five contests.  Paul Nicholls trained the first two winners of this event (Paul held two options at the time of writing), whilst five-year-olds come into the contest on a five timer.

Seventeen furlong Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 3.10: Five and six-year-olds have secured five of the six renewals to date, the young brigade leading 3-2 to date.  Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners in the most recent renewals when the trainer was represented.  Paul held two options at the time of writing.

Class 5 nineteen furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.40: Only three of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) via eight renewals to date.  The last six winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more.

Mares novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.10: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year‘s even money market leaders secured the silver medal.  Six-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer.

 

Kempton:

General stats: 41% of the 413 non handicap favourites have won at the Sunbury venue during the last five years.

 

Southwell:

General stats: James Tate had just one runner entered at the time of writing which was Dubawi Sound in the 2.50 event, the trainer boasting a 50% record at South well (6/12) thus far.

Well I Declare, 13th to 18th November 2012

Well, I Declare: 13th to 18th November

Well, I Declare: 13th to 18th November

There are many positives to take into this week, not least of which is an extra day of coverage as understandably, I wanted to include the third and final day of the ‘Open meeting’ at Cheltenham.

That said let’s start the other way around by giving you some information about the first week statistics after the end of the flat (turf) in 2011.

Part of the reason for doing so is the surprising stat that favourites fared quite well in the report which takes in the full week, up to an including next Monday from a corresponding fixture perspective.

 

First week of corresponding results from the all-weather season from 2011.

Number of favourites: 69
Winners: 23 (33.3%)
Placed 24 (68.1% placed overall)
Unplaced: 22
Ten Odds on favourites: 7 winners & 3 places

 

Trainers of at least two winners during the week:

6--Saeed Bin Suroor (2/1 & five successful favourites)
3--Tom Dascombe (20/1-11/2-5/1)
2--Clive Cox (6/1 & 11/4*)
2--John Gosden (9/2 & 6/4*)
2--Andrew Balding (4/1 & 7/2)
2--Richard Hannon (10/1 & 4/5*)
2--Ron Harris (12/1 & 11/1)
2--John Jenkins (11/2 & 3/1*)
2--Alan McCabe (11/1 & 17/2)
2--Kevin Ryan (25/1 & 5/1)

 

Beaten favourites:

4--John Gosden
3--Richard Fahey & Keith Dalgleish
2 each for Mahmood Al Zarooni--Richard Hannon--Peter Hiatt--Marco Botti--Ian Williams--David Evans

 

Stat and facts from last year’s Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham:

Only nine trainers saddled winners during the three-day meeting, whilst just six of the nineteen favourites won via eighteen races. Twelve of the nineteen market leaders finished in the frame from a toteplacepot perspective.

 

Winning trainers:

6--Paul Nicholls (12/1-6/1-4/1-9/4*-6/4*-5/6*)
4--David Pipe (9/1-8/1-13/2-6/4*)
2--Willie Mullins: (15/2 & 9/2)
One each for Rebecca Cutis (16/1)--Jonjo O’Neill (9/1)--Nicky Henderson (13/2)--Nick Williams (2/1)--Mrs J. Harrington (11/8*)--Philip Hobbs (4/5*)

 

Beaten favourites saddled by:

5--Paul Nicholls (11/10--11/4-3/1-3/1-5/1**)
2--Philip Hobbs (7/2 & 9/2)
One each for Charlie Longsdon (10/3)--Enda Bolger (10/11)--Nicky Henderson (5/1**)--John Ferguson (7/2)--Robin Dickin (5/4)--Alan King (11/8)

 

Day by details at Cheltenham last year:

Friday: Two of the six favourites obliged whilst four of the seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  All six winners were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less.  David Pipe stole the honours with a 186/1 treble.  Toteplacepot dividend: £25.90.

Saturday: Only one of the six favourites prevailed whilst three of the six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  All six winners were sent off at 9/1 or less.  Paul Nicholls landed an 86/1 treble.  Toteplacepot dividend: £1,295.00.

Sunday: Three of the six favourites won whilst five of the six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  All six winners were sent off at 16/1 or less.  Paul Nicholls secured a 77/1 treble.  Toteplacepot dividend: £19.70.

 

Records for the Paddy Power meeting over the last five years:

Number of successful favourites during the last five years:

Friday: 9/30
Saturday: 7/30
Sunday: 7/29 (one abandoned race)

Total: 23/89 (25.8%)

 

Average toteplacepot dividends for the last five years:

Friday: £262.74
Saturday: £ 468.32
Sunday: £147.48

Average over the three days: £292.84

 

Paddy Power Gold Cup stats during the last five years:

Popular trainer’s records:

Nigel Twiston-Davies: 2 winners--two placed horses--six unplaced (no entry this year)
Ferdy Murphy: 1-1-3
Eddie O’Grady: 1-0-1 (no entry this time around)
David Pipe: 1-0-6
Nicky Henderson: 0-4-5
Alan King: 0-2-4
Paul Nicholls: 0-2-10
Philip Hobbs: 0-1-2

Record of favourites:

One winner--one placed--three unplaced

 

Record of first three in the betting:

Four winners--four placed--eight unplaced (two joint third favourites in 2007)

 

Vintage stats:

5YO: No winners--2 placed--six unplaced
6YO: 0-3-12
7YO: 4-3-17
8YO: 1-2-19
9YO: 0-5-9
Older horses: 0-0-9

Day by day details this week:

TUESDAY 13/11:

Lingfield (NH):

1.00: Five-year-olds have won all six renewals to date, whilst five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  Just one (8/13) market leader has prevailed from a win perspective however.

1.30: Six-year-olds have secured four of the six contests thus far.  Four of the eight favourites (via six renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, though last year‘s successful 15/8 market leader was the first to land the spoils.

2.00: Five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, albeit four-year-old‘s come to the party on a hat trick this time around. Four favourites have prevailed via eight renewals, with seven gold medallists having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less.

2.30: Only one of the four favourites has claimed a toteplacepot position to date (no winners).

3.00: Six, seven and eight-year-olds have equally shared the six contests thus far, whilst five gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 11-4.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

3.30: Four of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-4.  Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the money (three winners) via six contests.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 34% ratio standout from the crowd, whilst Dance For Livvy (3.10) is Robin Dickin’s only runner on the card, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 22% via six winners.  

 

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Sedgefield:

General stats: Chris Grant saddles two runners on the card having saddled a nice winner at the weekend.  Chris boasts an LSP figure of thirty-one points at the northern venue.

 

WEDNESDAY 14/11:

Bangor:

Class 3 Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: Horses carrying 11-8 or more have won four of the six renewals to date, whilst three of the eight favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include two winners.

Class 4 seventeen furlong novice hurdle event due to be contested at 3.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals thus far whilst seven of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Bumper finale scheduled for 4.10: Fourteen of forty favourites have won bumper races at Bangor during the last five years.

 

Exeter:

Class 4 twenty-one furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.40: Favourites have secured two gold, one silver medal and one bronze medal via five contests.  Paul Nicholls trained the first two winners of this event (Paul held two options at the time of writing), whilst five-year-olds come into the contest on a five timer.

Seventeen furlong Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 3.10: Five and six-year-olds have secured five of the six renewals to date, the young brigade leading 3-2 to date.  Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners in the most recent renewals when the trainer was represented.  Paul held two options at the time of writing.

Class 5 nineteen furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.40: Only three of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) via eight renewals to date.  The last six winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more.

Mares novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.10: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year‘s even money market leaders secured the silver medal.  Six-year-olds come into the contest on a four timer.

 

Kempton:

General stats: 41% of the 413 non handicap favourites have won at the Sunbury venue during the last five years.

 

Southwell:

General stats: James Tate had just one runner entered at the time of writing which was Dubawi Sound in the 2.50 event, the trainer boasting a 50% record at South well (6/12) thus far.

 

THURSDAY 15/11:

Kempton:

General stats: Michael (JM) Murphy has been one of the finds of the year relating to jockeys and his 26% strike rate here at Kempton is backed up by an LSP reading of fourteen points.

 

Ludlow:

Annual handicap chase over three miles scheduled for 2.00: During the last eleven years, nine of the ten winners were aged eight or more. Five favourites have prevailed during the last fifteen years, whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at just 8/1.

 

Southwell:

General stats: With as many as seven potential runners over the two-day meeting, David Nicholls in obviously intent on improving his staggering 168 points of level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years.

 

Taunton:

Class 3 Novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: Paul Nicholls has saddled two of the last three winners in which he was represented in the race during the last four years and the Ditcheat based maestro only had Suerte Al Salto engaged at the time of writing.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.10: Four and five-year-olds have won the last eight renewals with the 'juniors' leading 5-3 during the period.  Only two favourites have obliged via eight renewals since the turn of the Millennium.  That said, the last eight winners have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less.

 

FRIDAY 16/11:

Cheltenham:

Six-year-olds have won the last six renewals of the Steel Plate & Sections Novice chase which is scheduled to open the three-day fixture at 1.15.  ‘Team Pipe’ has secured four victories during the last decade, whilst the same number of market leaders has prevailed during the study period.

Handicap chase over two miles scheduled for 1.50: Nicky Henderson held two options for this race earlier in the week, the trainer coming into the contest on a four timer.

Grade 2 two-mile novice hurdle scheduled for 2.55: Four and five-year-olds have secured ten of the last eleven renewals (five-year-olds lead 6-4 during the period).  Three favourites have prevailed during the last decade with market leaders coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick.

Cross country event scheduled for 3.00: Enda Bolger has saddled five of the last eight winners of this unique event.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 3.30: Nicky Henderson had saddled three consecutive winners of this contest directly before securing silver and bronze medals in last year’s renewal.  Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven contests, whilst favourites have obliged in three of the last six renewals.

Amateur riders event scheduled for 4.05: The last ten winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst just one favourite has scored via the last nine contests.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Daniel Kubler had two entries on the card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 60% at Lingfield via three winners. The trio of successful gold medallists has helped to produce a level stake profit of ten points thus far.

 

Newcastle:

Two mile novice hurdle scheduled for 12.20: Three of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.25: Five of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners).

Class four handicap chase event scheduled for 2.00: Favourites come into the contest on a four timer, market leaders having won five of the last seven renewals.  The biggest priced winner via ten renewals since 2000 was returned at odds of 15/2.   Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.55: Nicky Richards saddled the first two (of six) winners of this event, whilst five-year-olds come to this year's party on a five timer.  The last five favourites have finished out of the frame since a 5/2 winning favourite was recorded back in 2007.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Hoad only has two entries for the entire week, one of which is Mr Hendrix who is due to contest the scheduled 4.45 event.  Mark has saddled three of his ten runners to winning effect at Wolverhampton, statistics which have produced over fourteen points of level stake profits.

 

SATURDAY 17/11:

Cheltenham:

Triumph Hurdle Trial scheduled for 12.45: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 10/1 or less during which time, five favourites have obliged.  Paul Nicholls comes into the contest on a hat trick with his twelve length soft ground winner Far West as his only possible representative

Three mile novice chase scheduled for 1.20: What A Warrior was the only Nigel Twiston-Davies raider involved at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled three of the last nine winners.  Favourites have secured five of the last nine renewals.

Twenty nine furlong Grade 3 handicap chase contest due to be contested at 1.55 honouring the name of Henrietta Knight: Seven winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 10-10.

Paddy Power Gold Cup scheduled for 2.35: Eight of the last nine winners carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst four favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years.

Listed handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.05: The last eleven winners all carried weights of 11-2 or less.

Two mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-old’s come to the gig on a four timer, whilst four contests have slipped by since a successful favourite was registered following five consecutive victories for market leaders between 2003 and 2007.

 

Lingfield:

Listed ‘Churchill Stakes’ scheduled for 2.15: Clive Brittain has saddled two of the last four winners. Both of those gold medallists represented the three-year-old vintage and Clive's only option earlier in the week was three-year-old Quixote.

Listed ‘Golden Rose’ scheduled for 2.50: Only one of the five favourites has prevailed thus far though to be fair, the biggest priced winner to date was returned at just 8/1.  Two of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Charlie Mann’s ratio at Uttoxeter stands at 10/37, backed up by an equally impressive LSP figure of eight points.  Favourite stats regarding favourites at the venue are extremely positive in the non handicap sector with 46% of market leaders of hurdle races having obliged along the 47% steeplechase ratio during the last five years.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: JJ Lambe held three options for Wetherby on Saturday at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a 40% strike rate at the venue via four winners thus far.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Trainer Gerard Butler saddled a winner last week via the few number of runners he saddled.  Gerard’s strike rate of 24% at Wolverhampton is well worth reporting, especially when the ratio is backed up by forty-eight points of level stake profits. 

 

SUNDAY 18/11:

Cheltenham:

Grade 2 novice chase scheduled for 1.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled six of the last ten winners, statistics which include the last four winners of the race.

Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood Hurdle) scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won six times during the last eleven, whilst Philip Hobbs has saddled three of the last ten winners.  Course and distance winner Snap Tie was Philip’s only entry at the five-day stage.

Intermediate Hurdle scheduled for 2.50: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals whilst six contests had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before last year’s 9/4 market leader obliged.

Twenty one furlong hurdle event scheduled for 3.25: Five-year-olds have ruled the roost again here, having won the last six renewals.

Paul Nicholls (potentially saddles Fascino Rustico this time around) was thwarted by a Rebecca Curtis winner last year when coming into the contest on a hat trick.  It’s worth noting the Rebecca held three options for the race earlier in the week.

 

Fontwell:

Salmon Spray Challenge Trophy scheduled for 1.30: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-0 or more.  Five of the last six market leaders have prevailed.

‘Southern National’ scheduled for 2.05: Seven of the eight contests have been won by horses returned at odds of 8/2 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders of one description or another.

Well I Declare, 6th to 10th November 2012

Horse Racing Stats

Well I Declare: Racing Stats

Well I Declare, by Malcolm Boyle

Consistent winning trainers were hard to find during the corresponding week last year (Tuesday through Saturday) as the featured number plummeted compared to recent weeks.

Last week’s haul of twenty three winners still puts in a positive mood going into another week however, especially with two of the gold medallists scoring at 16/1 & 14/1.

Last year’s leading trainers during the corresponding period:

Flat:

4 winners--Ralph Beckett: (11/1-6/1-9/4**-15/8*)

4--Richard Hannon (13/2-9/2-10/3-2/1)

Other trainers to note:

Declan Carroll saddled two winners at (16/1 & 8/1)

James Given also bagged a pair at 10/1 & 8/1.

NH:

6--Paul Nicholls (8/1-11/4*-85/40-2/1-8/11*-8/13*)

3--Vic Dartnell (16/1-9/2-3/1***)

3--Alan King (7/2-15/8*-7/4*)

3--Oliver Sherwood (14/1-6/1-6/5*)

Others of particular interest:

2--Ann Hamilton: (11/1 & 9/2)

2--Emma Lavelle (14/1 & 12/1)

2--Ferdy Murphy (10/1 & 8/1)

2--David Pipe (10/1 & 13/2)

 

Doubles (or more) on the day:

Wednesday:

535/1 four timer for Richard Hannon

98/1 double for James Given

Thursday:

Oliver Sherwood secured a 14/1 double at Towcester

Friday:

George Prodromou landed a 35/1 double on the level.

Saturday:

The week’s major player was Paul Nicholls, who saddled six winners on the day which equated to a 881/1 accumulator!

 

Haldon Gold Cup--ten year study report for Tuesday’s renewal:

Record of trainers with declared runners:

Paul Nicholls (Edgardo Sol): Two winners (3/1 &6/5*)--five places--nine unplaced

Philip Hobbs (Menorah): Two winners (10/1 & 4/1*)--four unplaced

Colin Tizzard (Cue Card)--Just two unplaced runners to report.

The other two trainers have not been represented during the study period.

Favourite stats: 2 winners--3 placed--5 unplaced

First three in the betting record: 6 winners--6 placed--20 unplaced

Vintage figures (winners--places--unplaced):

5YO: 0-2-2

6YO: 2-2-7

7YO: 3-5-11

8YO: 1-2-17

9YO: 0-3-5

Older horses: 4-1-12

Doncaster’s November Handicap details for Saturday: 

John Gosden has trained two of the last three winners but with John not being represented this time around, the trainer which catches the eye with a runner is Sir Henry Cecil who would not normally be associated with the final big handicap of the season.

Sir Henry has Last Mohican entered up and this unbeaten three time soft/heavy ground winner is surely the horse to beat in this year’s line up.

The Tobougg gelding sits one spot higher (100) via official ratings than is ideally the case (relevant stats listed below) but what is ‘one spot’ between friends?

Draw details:

2011: 20-5-16-22 (23 ran-soft)

2010: 9-17-5-3 (22 ran-good to soft)

2009: 14-19-9-24 (23 ran-soft)

2008: 22-18-11-7 (21 ran-soft)

2007: 13-17-19-2 (21 ran-good to firm)

2006: Race was contested at Windsor

2005: 18-5-10-8 (21 ran-heavy)

2004: 3-6-1-4 (24 ran-soft)

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2003: 14-6-3-2 (24 ran-good)

2002: 20-22-24-17 (23 ran-heavy)

Official ratings: The last eight winners have run off marks ranging between 93 & 99.

Favourites during the study period: Just one favourite has finished in the frame (2008) via eleven representatives (no winners).

Vintage stats:

3YO: 4 winners & 6 places

4YO: 5 winners & 13 places

5YO: 1 winner & 5 places

Older horses: No winners--six places

Day by day details:  

TUESDAY: 

Exeter: 

General stats: Opposite scenarios here as Nicky Henderson leads the trainer ranks via a 33% strike rate, whereas Ruby Walsh is the call from the saddle with his 44% ratio.  If Nicky and Ruby ever team up at Exeter, we should be on a sure fire winner! 

Redcar: 

General stats: Rae Guest and Gay Kelleway both have four declarations on the card, going into today’s meeting with identical 3/11 strike rates. 

Southwell: 

General stats: Seven pound claimer has just the one booked ride at the time of writing, with the talented pilot aboard Gaelic Wizard in the 3.40 contest.  Josh boasts a phenomenal 35% strike rate here at South well (7/20), a ratio which is backed up by an LSP reading of fifty one points. 

WEDNESDAY: 

Chepstow:

General stats: For The Staff was the only mount for James Best on the card at the weekend, with the jockey boasting a strike rate of 38% (5/13) which has produced level stake profits of twenty eight points. 

Two mile Maiden hurdle scheduled for 1.00: Four-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals to date during which time, just one (8/11) favourite has obliged.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle due to be contested at 1.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners in the last five years and the trainer held two options for the race at the weekend.  Five-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals to date during which time, two market leaders have obliged.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.00: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals.

Class 4 handicap chase over the minimum trip scheduled for 2.30: Nine of the last ten contests have been secured by horses carrying a minimum weight of 11-1.

Favourites have won both renewals of the closing bumper event which is due to be contested at 4.15:

Kempton:

General stats: Neil Callan has slowly been moving up the ‘pecking order’ in the jockey sector at Kempton in recent times though that said, the term slow relating to Neil’s eighty eight winners during the last five years at the venue might sound a little harsh!  Backing up Neil’s 19% strike rate is a level stake profit of seventy four points. 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has three declarations at Nottingham on Wednesday with the trainer still reigning supreme via his 37% strike rate at the track.  Saeed boasts level profit stakes of fifteen points via twenty two winners to complete the full picture. 

12.10 & 12.40 (two divisions): Eighteen of the nineteen available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses aged five or less, stats which include all five winners. Four-year-olds have secured three of the five contests thus far.

1.10: Two of the last three favourites have won this Nursery event which in the context of two-year-old handicaps is a good return.

1.40 & 2.10 (two divisions): Eleven of the last twelve winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which given the context of the race, is a reasonable stat to offer.  That said, four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded following a hat trick for market leaders from 2007 through 2009.

2.40: Three and four-year-olds have secured ten of the last nine renewals of this conditions event between them.  Junior raiders have secured five of the last seven contests.

Warwick: 

General stats: David Pipe boasts a 29% strike rate (12/42) whilst notching thirty eight points of level stake profits for good measure. Only Nicky Henderson’s 32% ratio outpoints David for Wednesday’s card. 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals of Warwick’s finale.

THURSDAY: 

Musselburgh: 

General stats: Bruce Mactaggart’s strike rate (4/6) is something to behold in Edinburgh, whilst Kate Walton’s 5/19 strike rate is none too shabby either! 

Lingfield:

General stats; Whilst always taking into account Saeed Bin Suroor’s great (48%) ratio here at Lingfield, new kids on the block Charlie Hills and Ed Walker have done well with their horses at the venue thus far. 

Towcester:

General stats: Jonjo O’Neill generally stands out from the crowd because not only does the trainer head the winners list in terms of numbers (twenty two in the last five years), but the popular Irishman also boasts a black figure LSP rating which having saddled 112 runners at the track in recent years, is a difficult double to achieve. 

Twenty one furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried eleven stones or more.

Two and three quarter mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

Bumper event restricted to fillies scheduled for 4.20: Although just three favourites have won via eight renewals to date, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.  

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Frank Sheridan is due to start sending out some big priced winners again soon, as his eighty one points of level stake profits prove here at Wolverhampton during the last five years. 

FRIDAY: 

Fontwell:

General stats: Sophie Leech held one option for the meeting earlier in the week (Kings Queen in the three mile three furlong handicap hurdle) with the trainer boasting a strike rate of 21% which is backed up by fifteen points of level stake profits at the venue.  

Conditional jockey’s hurdle event scheduled for 1.10: All five winners have carried weights of 10-9 or less to date, three of which have represented the five-year-old vintage. Just one favourite has prevailed thus far.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event due to be contested at 2.10: Favourites have won three of the last four contests.

Class 4 twenty two furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: All five winners have carried a maximum burden of just 10-9.  The last two market leaders have obliged, the biggest priced winner thus far being returned at 13/2.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 4.10: Oliver Sherwood comes into the race on a hat trick with trainer holding just one entry earlier in the week, namely his Irish PTP winner Beforeall. 

Hexham:

General stats: Two jockeys stand out from the crowd at Hexham in recent times.  Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden four of his six mounts to victory, whilst John Winston’s 3/6 ratio would head most lists! 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Evan Williams is another trainer (see earlier Musselburgh comment) who boasts a great strike rate having saddled three of his five runners in Edinburgh to success during the last five years.  

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Ed Vaughan’s efforts at Wolverhampton are worth a mention given his 19% strike rate at Dunstall Park which is back up by a health profit of thirty eight points via fourteen winners in recent times. 

SATURDAY: 

Doncaster:

General stats: Dorcas Lane (scheduled to contest the 2.00 event) was David Lanigan’s only option on the card at the time of writing, David having saddled six of his fifteen runners to Town Moore to success. 

Six furlong Nursery due to be contested at 1.25: The last six winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-4, whilst three favourite have won via seven renewals during the last decade.

Ten furlong Listed event scheduled for 2.00: Three and four-year-olds have won all nine renewals thus far (juniors lead 5-4).

November Handicap scheduled for 2.35: Whilst digesting the stats and facts in the opening sector of this week’s work, it’s as well to also consider that nine of the last eleven gold medallists carried 9-2 or less.

The four winners of the scheduled seven furlong handicap finale at 3.45 have scored at 33/1-16/1-12/1-8/1 carrying weights of 8-13 or less.

Kelso:

General stats: Lucinda Russell was featured in this column a few weeks ago before hitting a quiet period.  Lucinda was back with a bang at the weekend saddling four of her six runners to success, all of which won at tracks which were highlighted at the time.  Hexham is another of her favourite ‘hunting grounds’. 

Two and three quarter mile NH novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.25: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 6-3 via the ten renewals during the last decade.

Seventeen furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.50: Seven-year-olds have secured two gold and two silver medals in this event via just six representatives to date.

Sandown:

General stats: Neil King is ‘going places’ as a trainer as his 4/15 stats at Sandown confirm, winners which have produced an LSP figure of sixteen points. 

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.45: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 1.20: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last five renewals whilst favourites come to this year’s gig on a seven timer.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.50: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.

Two and a half mile Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 2.25: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  Six-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.00: The last ten winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, nine of which scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two successful favourites).

Three mile Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: The last nine winners carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.05: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 17/2 or less.  Four-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals.

Wincanton:

General stats: Jockey Conor O’Farrell boasts stats of 9/30 to date, backed up by thirty two points of level stake profits. It’s also worth repeating that Paul Nicholls saddled six winners this day last year, five of which scored here at Wincanton when landing a 544/1 accumulator! 

Two miles five handicap chase scheduled for 1.10: Six of the last seven winners carried weights of 11-4 or more.

Mares handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.45: Only one of the last eight favourites has obliged, whilst five of the last six winners were burdened with a maximum weight of just 10-10.

Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) scheduled for 2.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last ten winners.

Grade 2 novice chase scheduled for 2.50: Paul Nicholls (two runners entered up at the five day stage) has saddled four of the last six winners of this event.  Paul might have snared the other two contests as well had his runners not ‘tipped up’ when going well in their respective event.

Listed handicap chase event schedule for 3.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last eleven winners of the ‘Badger Beer‘.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.00: Four and five-year-olds have secured ten of the last eleven renewals.  Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last nine contests.  Apologies for the repetitive nature of the Paul Nicholls domination of this meeting down the years!