Well I Declare, 4th December
We can certainly start off with some positive stats relating to the Hennessy Gold Cup result last week.
Nine of the last ten winners have now won at odds of 10/1 or less.
Four of the last eleven favourites have won.
This stat (best of all) was also offered last Tuesday:
Five of the last six winners ran off a minimal office mark of 150.
Only four horses in the handicap raced off a mark of 150+: 166 Tidal Bay (2nd 8/1)---162 Roberto Goldback (Fell)---160 Bobs Worth (WON AT 4/1)---159 First Lieutenant (3rd 12/1).
The Trifecta dividend paid: £567.70
This week’s ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting at Sandown:
Just three trainers saddled a brace of winners over the course of the two-day fixture in 2011: Paul Nicholls (5/2* & 4/11*), Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 11/4) and Nicky Henderson (8/1 & 11/4**). Paul Nicholls was the only trainer to saddle two (2/1** & 11/4) beaten favourites.
Paul Nicholls has a strangle hold on the ‘Tingle Creek’ having saddled seven recent winners, whilst landing three renewals of the Henry VIII Novice Chase which is also contested on the Saturday of the meeting.
Favourites have won six renewals of the Tingle Creek during the last decade, whilst three favourites have obliged in the Novice Chase event.
Three of the four odds on favourites have won the ‘Tingle Creek’ during the study period, whilst just two of the five odds on market leaders in the ‘Henry VIII’ have prevailed. The beaten hot-pots were saddled by Emma Lavelle, Paul Nicholls and Alan King.
Leading NH trainer returns (10 winners or more during the month) in December 2011:
36 winners—N. Henderson (32% strike rate): Hurdles: 21/67--Chases: 13/38--Bumpers: 2/8
20--Paul Nicholls (21%)--11/48--8/43--1/4
19--Donald McCain (19%)--11/62--4/28--4/10
13--Jonjo O’Neill (15%)--8/52--4/31--1/3
13--David Pipe (15%)--8/60--3/27--2/8
13--Alan King (15%)--8/49--5/33--0/6
12--Tim Vaughan (21%)--7/39--3/14--2/5
11--P. Hobbs (19%)--5/31--5/23--¼
Leading trainers on the all-weather circuits since the end of the turf season this year (up to and including Monday 3rd November):
6--M. Botti (2/5*--11/4--Evs*--7/2--11/2--5/4*)
6--K. Dalgleish (9/1--9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*)
6--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--5/4*--Evs*--11/4*)
5--A. Balding (11/10*--4/5*--11/4*--11/4--4/1**)
5--Sir M. Prescott (4/9*--11/8*--8/11*--4/5*--10/11*)
5--John Ryan (9/2--33/1--3/1**--15/8--7/2)
5--Kevin Ryan (9/2--5/1--7/2**--4/1--11/10*)
4--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--7/2**--20/1)
4--Mrs K. Burke (5/1--7/1--5/4*--3/1)
4--E. Dunlop (15/8*--11/4*--7/2--5/4*)
Leading trainers at the four individual venues:
4--A. Balding (11/10*--11/4*--11/4--4/1**)
3--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--20/1)
2--Mrs K. Burke (3/1 & 5/4*)
2--R. Charlton (3/1* & 11/10*)
2--R. Cowell (25/1 & 7/1)
2--D. Evans (7/1 & 2/1)
2--R. Harris (7/4* & 11/2)
2--J.S. Moore (4/1 & 8/1)
2--H. Morrison (5/4* & 8/1)
2--J. Ryan (33/1 & 3/1**)
2--M. Botti (2/5* & 11/4)
2--G. Moss (12/1 & 9/4)
2--J. Noseda (9/4* & 7/1)
2--K. Ryan (9/2 & 7/2**)
2--S.C. Williams (7/2* & 4/1***)
5--K. Dalgleish (9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*)
5--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--11/4*--Evs*)
3--M. Botti (Evs*--7/2--5/4*)
3--M. Easterby (12/1--13/2--7/2)
3--J. Ryan (9/2--15/8--7/2)
2--T. Clement (5/1 & 15/8)
2--E. Dunlop (15/8* & 11/4*)
2--C. Hills (8/1 & 4/1)
2--Sir M. Prescott (4/5* & 10/11*)
2--J. Tate (9/2 & 2/1*)
Southwell (albeit that no further racing will take place until next year):
2--M. Bell (10/1 & 4/9*)
2--D. Nicholls (7/2* & 8/1)
DAY TO DAY ANALYSIS:
General stats: Warren Greatrex (two runners on the card) boasts a 40% strike rate at the track via eight winners. Tony McCoy rides Westward Point in the 2.00 event, with the champion jockey having scored on seven of his nine rides for the trainer!
General stats: John Ferguson saddles Caymen Islands in the 2.20 contest, with John having scored with two of his four runners at the venue thus far.
General stats: Minimee (3.10) is Roger Varian’s only declared runner on Tuesday, with Roger boasting a 11/29 ratio at the track. Keith Dalgleish boasts a 21% record at Wolverhampton which has produced fifty points of level stake profits in recent times. Keith saddled a 33/1 treble at the track on Monday for good measure.
1.40: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the four renewals to date, whilst we still await the first successful favourite. Two of the market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions however, with the biggest priced winner scoring at just 6/1 thus far.
2.10: Favourites have won both renewals to date.
2.40: Three-year-olds have secured seven of the eight renewals, whilst four favourite have scored thus far. The biggest priced winner was recorded at just 8/1.
4.10: The three favourites have secured two gold and one silver medal, whilst three-year-olds have secured six of the eight win and place positions, statistics which include two of the three gold medallists at 7/2 and 2/5.
4.40 & 5.10 (two divisions): Just one favourite has prevailed via the last seven contests.
General stats: Brian Ellison has won with four of the eleven runners he has saddled at Catterick under the NH code in recent times.
General stats: Rebecca Curtis, Nicky Henderson and Jim Best all boast 33% strike rates with a decent amount of runners, whilst trainers with impressive ratios with less raiders include Alistair Lidderdale (3/6), Richard Woolacott (2/3) and John Ferguson (2/5).
General stats: Although the relevant 11% strike rate is nothing to write home about, Jo Crowley’s LSP figure of sixty-eight points lights my blue touch-paper!
3.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (11/4) winner.
4.20: Two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) thus far.
4.50: Three-year-olds have won all four renewals whilst securing nine of the ten available toteplacepot positions. Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two of the four winners.
5.20: Richard Hannon has declared two runners for this event but I should warn you that Richard is responsible for all four beaten favourites in the race to date. Three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (7/2 & 11/8) winners.
6.20: All seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. We still await the first successful favourite in this event, whilst four of the nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
6.50: The three favourites to date have secured two gold and one bronze medal. The two winners were sent off at 9/2 and 100/30, whilst the third placed market leader was returned at 11/2.
General stats: Trainer Pat Phelan is back among the winners and Pat’s sixty points of level stake profits during the last five years at Lingfield catch the eye.
General stats: Tony McCoy’s 43% strike rate (via twenty winners) stands head and shoulders above his rivals whilst on the training front, both Fergal O’Brian and Richard Harper boast 2/2 ratios.
General stats: Couple Nicky Henderson’s strike rate in December last year (see stats above) with his 41% ratio here at Market Rasen and you have a recipe for plenty of winners.
General stats: Tim Vaughan (24% strike rate) and Emma Lavelle (22%) are emerging as understudies to the lead role of Paul Nicholls (27%) at Wincanton via recent results.
Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.40: All nine winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 11-4 during which time, five winners were returned at odds ranging between 16/1 and 50/1. Four five-year-olds won during the study period, accompanied by just two successful market leaders who represented the vintage.
Class 4 ‘Silver Buck’ handicap chase event due to be contested at 2.10: Last year’s 2/1 market leader could only finish second (beaten three lengths) following six consecutive successful favourites.
Two mile Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Fiver-year-olds secured six of the nine contests during the last decade during which time, seven winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones. Three joint favourites have obliged though successful clear favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.
Wincanton’s closing conditional jockey’s event set for 3.40: Favourites have won four of the eight renewals, whilst Venetia Williams has won with her last two runners in the contest. At the time of writing, Venetia only had Last Shot entered up in the race.
Lingfield (transferred from Wolverhampton):
General stats: The 46% strike rate of favourites in the non handicap sector at Lingfield stands close inspection, whilst the 33% ratio of market leaders in three-year-old handicaps is a perfectly decent return during the last five years.
General stats: David Arbuthnot does not saddle many horses these days (especially under the NH code) whereby his three potential runners at Sandown on Friday attract the eye, especially as David boasts a 25% strike rate at the venue during the last five years. David has secured an LSP reading of eleven points during the study period for good measure.
Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.50: Favourites have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade, whilst seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, hot favourites at 1/4 and 4/5 have been beaten from a win perspective, albeit the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at just 8/1.
Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase due to be contested at 1.20: The last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 during which time, three market leaders prevailed.
Grade 2 two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Four and five-year-olds have secured four victories apiece via the last nine renewals, whilst Paul Nicholls and Alan have both ‘bagged a brace’. Although only one favourite has scored via the last five contests, four market leaders have won during the study period with the biggest priced winner returned at just 11/2. Seven of the nine favourites secured toteplacepot positions.
Listed ‘Future Stars’ steeplechase scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals with course winner Pacha Du Polder potentially representing the yard this time around. Seven-year-olds have secured five victories during the period, with Grove Pride hopefully taking part as Henry Daly’s gelding attempts to secure a hat trick in terms of vintage representatives.
Class 4 two miles handicap hurdle for novices due to be contested at 3.40: Five-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals of Sandown’s scheduled finale. Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more, statistics which include the last six gold medallists.
General stats: There are not too many racecourses where Tony McCoy’s ratio of winners is usurped but with Jason Maguire sitting on the 28% mark at Exeter, even the champion jockey has played ‘second fiddle’ in recent years.
Nineteen furlong conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 1.00: Six-year-olds have won six renewals during the last decade during which time, two favourites have prevailed. The last eight winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.
Nineteen furlong novice chase event due to be contested at 1.30: Six-year-olds again rule the roost as vintage representatives have snared four of the last five renewals. Four favourites have won via eight contests with the biggest priced winner returned at just 6/1. Philip Hobbs is the only trainer to have saddled two winners and Philip’s only entry earlier in the week was six-year-old Fingal Bay.
Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.05: Some readers might suggest that six nine-year-old winners of this event during the last decade can be put down to pure coincidence though if that is so, why do plenty of professionals within the sport suggest that only nine and ten-year-olds should be seriously considered in the Grand National? The vintage records of the relevant raiders down the years have been proved right via a general rule of thumb whereby I will stick to the principle in this extreme marathon event, albeit only two of the sixteen five-day acceptors were nine-year-olds! No successful favourites were recorded during the last decade, with just one of the last six market leaders having finished in the frame.
Seventeen furlong novice hurdle ‘qualifier’ scheduled for 2.40: Five-year-olds have secured seven victories during the last decade, with four-year-olds ‘mopping up’ the other three events. Only two favourites have won during the study period though that said, nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions. Workbench was the only potential Paul Nicholls runner in the race earlier in the week, Paul being the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions in recent times.
Class 4, three-mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade whilst just two favourites have obliged. The last eight winners have scored at 10/1 or less. Only one of the last fifteen runners sent off at 11/1 or more has finished in the frame (no winners).
Exeter’s closing bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Four favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade. Seven gold medallists were returned at odds of 7/2 or less.
General stats: John Gosden’s 23% strike rate is backed up by an LSP figure of twenty-five points during the last five years.
General stats: Five favourites (of one description or another) won via twelve races during the two-day meeting last year, whilst two of the four odds on favourites obliged.
National Hunt Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 12.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last six winners of this event with the trainer coming to the gig on this occasion on a four timer. All four winners saddled by Nicky were five-year-old and two of his three entries earlier in the week hailed from that vintage. Favourites came to the party on a six timer last year but the 4/6 market leader could only finish third.
Pertemps series qualifier scheduled for 1.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled the only two successful favourites (in the last four years) during the decade. Paul held two entries for the contest earlier in the week, as did Jonjo O’Neill who is the only other trainer to have saddled two winners during the study period.
Listed Handicap Hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two winning favourites), whilst four-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests.
Twenty nine furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: The last six winners have carried a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst the eight successful horses during the last decade ranged between 7/2 and 10/1, with not a single favourite amongst them.
General stats: The Murphy yard is potentially represented by the course and distance winner Quito De La Roque in the scheduled 1.50 event with the stable looking to improve its ratio to 3/3 at Aintree.
Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.00: Favourites have secured two of the five renewals of this event in which three market leaders have finished in the frame.
Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.35: Six-year-olds have won six renewals of this event during the last decade. Last year’s successful 5/1 favourite was the first to score in seven years since back to back 5/1 joint market leaders obliged in 2003/2004. Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5.
‘Becher Chase’ due to be contested at 2.10: Just like last week’s ‘Hennessy’, this race is finally being won by fancied horses on a semi regular basis following years of renewals which favoured the bookmakers. Only one market leader has obliged in the last seven years though that said, seven of the last nine contests have been secured by horses sent off at odds of 10/1 or less. Unusually, Paul Nicholls was potentially represented by just one horse in this year’s event, a race which Paul has secured three times in the last eight years. Join Together is the horse in question.
Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.45: Four renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded following the success of four consecutive market leaders (of one description or another) between 2004 and 2007. Four-year-olds have been the most successful vintage (four winners during the last decade) though that said, just three of the twenty-two five-day acceptors hailed from the junior ranks.
‘Grand Sefton’ event scheduled for 3.20: Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals, whilst five contests have passed without a successful favourite being registered. That said, five of the nine favourites have secured win and place positions which is a decent enough record in this type of event.
General stats: Tim Easterby does not lead the strike rate figures, though his regular winners at Wetherby are backed up by an LSP reading of twenty-six points.
General stats: John O’Shea’s LSP figure of eighty-one points demands attention.