Double Dutch, 7th March 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th March 2015

Lessons In Milan was a fairly comfortable six lengths winner at our advised 9/4 odds at Sandow yesterday, whilst AP's mount Ustica was pulled up before the last.

This meant we'd a a nice stake for race 2, up at Ayr, but unfortunately And The Man failed to complete again. He fell 4 out, whilst looking like he had every chance. This left our hopes with Grate Fella and he led until the last fence, but once headed, quickly faded out of contention.

Friday's results were as follows:

Lessons In Milan : WON at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Ustica : PU at 4/1 (adv 11/2)
Grate Fella : u/p at 5/1 (adv 9/2)
And The Man : fell at 9/4 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
507 winning selections from 1779 = 28.50%
159 winning bets in 461 days = 34.49%

Stakes: 921.50pts
Returns: 1019.90pts

P/L : +98.40pts (+10.68% ROI)


Saturday is my last piece of the week and I'd like to take my bottom line back above 100pts with these...

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.45 Ayr:

Aniknam was an easy 10 lengths winner on his debut in a bumper at Hexham a year ago in a performance deemed good enough by connections to enter him into a Grade 1 contest at Punchestown, where he wasn't disgraced in finishing 8th of 12 runners. His hurdling debut then resulted in a heavy ground win at Hexham, but on his fourth and latest start, he was beaten into third place on his first attempt at today's trip at Wetherby.

Initially it was felt that he hadn't run well enough, but the winner that day has since won again by 25 lengths and then ran to within 4 lengths of a winner in a Listed event off a mark of 140. Aniknam's opening mark here of just 116 should, therefore be a very workable figure and he's rated an 11/4 BOG chance with Coral to take his career tally to 3 from 5.

He will, however, have to beat Sir Vinski to do that and that won't be an easy proposition. The formidable Harding / Richards combination will expect to land this one with a horse that has also won twice from four starts. A bumper win on debut was followed by a third place and a win in two maiden hurdles, with the win coming at today's trip on heavy ground, so no stamina concerns here.

Sir Vinski's fourth and latest run was his own handicap debut at a higher grade than this and he ran well enough to finish 5th of 10 runners, beaten by 12 lengths behind Aigle de la See and 5 lengths behind Derrintogher Bliss, both of whom have won since and several of his rivals from that run in a Grade 3 contest (2.00 Sandown) this afternoon.

As a course and distance winner dropping in class, Sir Vinski looks well treated and certainly warrants to be the 15/8 BOG (Betbright) favourite here and will need to be respected.


4.45 Chepstow:

Dan Skelton has been very successful with his handicap runners during his short training career and will look to add another winner here in the shape of the 15/8 BOG favourite Mister Grez, a horse who despite running from 14lbs out of the handicap got to within 9 lengths of Sire de Grugy over this course and distance a fortnight ago.

Then five days later, he turned over a David Pipe hotpot on heavy ground at Taunton and a repeat of either of those runs should be enough here today. He's in great form, having won 3 of his last five starts and doesn't mind a bit of cut in the ground, which you generally get here at Chepstow.

If Mister Grez fluffs his lines, however, then I'd expect the talented and very consistent Whispering Harry to be waiting to pick up the pieces. In the last 14 months, his worst result in 11 runs was a 4th place at Uttoxeter last October coming off a break of 230 days, so some excuses there. He has won 5 of the other 10 races, making the frame in the five losing runs too!

He was only denied a hat-trick at Taunton last time out after a mistake 2 from out, but still stayed on 2nd place and only beaten by 3 lengths. At 7/2 BOG, Whispering Harry looks an excellent back up plan.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sir Vinski / Mister Grez @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Betway)
Sir Vinski / Whispering Harry @ 10.92/1 (7/4 & 10/3 : bet365)
Aniknam / Mister Grez @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : Coral)
Aniknam / Whispering Harry @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor)

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stonefield Flyer was a comfortable winner by the best part of four lengths yesterday, as once again Joe Fanning proved how good he is at reading the pace of a race.

It also meant that, for only the second time since inception, that we've now hit five winners on the bounce and thanks to Newcastle's abandonment earlier this week, we're now unbeaten in a whole week.

My only minor gripe about yesterday was the price taken and then the price received. I took 9/4 BOG at 7.40am, but by the time I came to update the blog, a non-runner has knocked me back to 63/40 and the best price available was 5/4, which is now the price we'll declare at.

Mind you, we still made 1.25pts on a day where our runner was a 4/5 winner and as you all know, I'm more than happy to take over 156% of SP every day!

Although we had an easy win on the sand yesterday, my recent rich vein of form has come from jumps racing in testing conditions, so we're now heading to the South West for a crack at the...

3.25 Taunton:

Which is a Class 3 handicap chase over 2 miles plus a half furlong on heavy ground and my selection is the 6yr old gelding Whispering Harry, who I've just backed at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.

His trainer is Henry Oliver...

...who might not be a familiar name to some of you, but he's one that I look out for, not that he has too many runners! He had his first ever runner in February 2013 and has been profitable to follow since.

In his short 23 month training career so far, he has already had 24 winners from 181 runners for a strike rate of 13.3% for level stakes profits of 62.4pts at an ROI of 34.5%. In handicap contests, he fares even better, with 22 winners from 121 (18.2% SR) for 39.6pts (+32.7% ROI).

Henry's yard is just South of Worcester, an area notorious for flooding in recent years and I'm guessing that his horses are trained in muddy conditions, as his record in handicaps on soft/heavy ground are 10 winners from 42 (23.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+35.2% ROI) with a fantastic 6/12 (50% SR) for 12.6pts (+104.7% ROI) on heavy ground.

When his handicappers have been sent off in the narrow 2/1 to 4/1 banding, they have a 40% strike rate (14/35) with the resultant 22.1pts profit equating to 63.2% of stakes. These runners are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 10.7pts (+152.9% ROI) on heavy.

James Davies takes the ride today...

Another who is hardly a household name, but he does ride well on the Oliver string, as a 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 69.1pts (+314% ROI) record will testify. In handicaps, he's 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+79.2% ROI) and in handicap chases, it's 3/12 (25% SR) for 17.5pts (+146% ROI).

The Davies / Oliver / Hcp Chase / Heavy ground combo is 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+227.8% ROI).

Whispering Harry loves the mud...

...winning three of his seven starts over obstacles on heavy ground so far, with the other four runs resulting in a runner-up finish and three third places!

Since the start of 2011 in UK heavy ground handicaps, horses with 2 or more wins on heavy ground from 10 or fewer efforts on heavy have 104 wins from 695 races, with the 15% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 139.8pts at an ROI of 20.1%.

In handicap chases, the figures become 74/438 (16.9% SR) for 88.2pts, also at an ROI of 201.1% and a 2/7 (28.6% SR) record here at Taunton producing 4.8pts at 68.6% ROI.

Conditions in general look ideal for him today...

We already know from above that the heavy going will suit his style, he has won each of his last three races at today's trip. He also has a 131 record when ridden by James Davies, all over fences where he is 4131 and his figures at this Class 3 level read 3131. Whispering Harry has won three from six at odds of below 6/1 and is clearly in good nick.

I do like the look of him here and I'm sure he's the one to beat, so why not join me in placing a 1pt win bet on Whispering Harry at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor? You can also get the same price from Hills or if you prefer to do your own research, you can... here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Taunton

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Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 28th February 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th February 2014

Another symmetrical losing day yesterday I'm afraid. We found one too good in both of our selected races and had to settle for second and third in both contests. Close, but not close enough.

Argent Touch was only beaten by three parts of a length at Southwell with Monsieur Lavene a further 1.25 lengths back in third. The market had agreed with us and backed the runner-up into 7/4 favouritism.

In race 2, our main selection Comical Red led until the last hurdle, but was beaten by 3.5 lengths on the run in, having been sent off as the 15/8 fav in from our huge 11/4 advice. Smiles For Miles travelled well but was badly outpaced late on and was another 12 lengths back in third.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Argent Touch: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Monsieur Lavene: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Comical Red: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 11/4)
Emell: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 15/8)

Results to date:
164 winning selections from 582 = 28.19%
55 winning bets in 154 days = 35.71%

Stakes: 304.00pts
Returns: 347.63pts

P/L : +43.63pts (+14.35% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

I'l be looking to tur those placers into winners today starting with the:

4.00 Newbury:

Where the defection of two of the main protagonists (Great Link & Hawaii Five Nil) has hopefully turned a once competitive-looking race into a two-horse shootout between Whispering Harry and Minella Reception, with both of them obviously shorter in price than earlier, courtesy of the two notable withdrawals.

Whispering Harry is currently the 9/4 BOG favourite and comes here in good nick, having finished 3213 in his last four races over the past two months. He gets in here off a good weight, receiving between 2 and 10 pounds from his rivals, which might prove vital on such testing ground. Incidentally, trainer Henry Oliver has saddled up 7 winners from his 17 handicappers priced below 4/1, a 41.2% strike rate which has produced 12.15pts profit to date, an ROI of 71.5%.

Minella Reception, conversely, carries top weight here today, but you can be sure of him giving a decent account of himself on heavy ground. Trainer Rebecca Curtis' horse tend to perform really well in the mud and this one is no exception with a 1251 record on such going. He might well be 2lbs worse off with Daveron today, despite only winning by a head when they met at Ludlow LTO, but our selection absolutely flattened the last hurdle and won have won by much further had he not done so.

My two for this race might well decide to take it on from the front quite early and if that happens, they'll be difficult to peg back with my slight preference being for Minella Reception at 3/1 BOG with betfred.


5.35 Wolverhampton:

Huzzah comes here seeking a course hat-trick under Ali Rawlinson within the space of three weeks after comfortable victories over 7f and 9.5f, the latest of which was a 4-lengths win eight days ago. The main question waiting to be answered is how the horse handles the extra 2.5 furlongs from last time out. He shaped like he had plenty in the tank on his latest run and if truth be told not many of the runners here have much form over today's trip.

One of the deciding factors in these apprentice jockeys' handicaps is the ability of the jockey themselves and in Ali Rawlinson, we've one of the best of the current crop. He rides well here at Wolverhampton and has a good record on Mick Appleby's horses and if things go to plan, the 9/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor and Hills might look massive this evening.

Of his rivals, Grandiloquent looks interesting on paper racing off a mark some 27lbs lower than when he last won, but that was 17 races and almost two years ago and combine that with his 0/4 (7646) record here at Wolverhampton, you'd have to leave him alone.

The one I will take to oppose Huzzah is 7/2 BOG shot Fair Breeze who seems to be coming into some decent form again. He finished second here when beaten by Waving over 1m6f almost four weeks ago. Waving was ridden by Ali Rawlinson that day and that horse has gone on to win his next three outings too, which makes Fair Breeze's defeat at 18/1 look very good. Fair Breeze then dropped back to today's trip to win over course and distance eleven days ago, staying on strongly to win by a length and a half.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Whispering Harry / Huzzah @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Whispering Harry / Fair Breeze @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Bet365 & Stan James)
Minella Reception / Huzzah @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor & Hills)
Minella Reception / Fair Breeze @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 100/30 : BetFred)