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Stat of the Day, 4th March 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.00 Exeter : Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Prominent, led after 3rd, headed 11th, rallied 4 out, chased winner next, kept on under pressure) : you know your luck's out when you get done by a 66/1 shot!

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old gelding has been in immaculate form since switching from turf to A/W last year. Fifth on Good to Firm ground on his race debut at Newmarket last June and then switched to the A/W where he is now 4 from 4, all at this 6f trip on left handed courses including...

  • 3 after 1-4 weeks rest, 3 for jockey Jack Mitchell and 3 this year
  • 2 in handicaps, 2 on Polytrack, 2 at Lingfield and therefore 2 over course and distance (inc LTO)
  • and 1 at Class 3 (LTO)

In addition to those excellent numbers, his trainer Simon Crisford does really well at this venue from a small, carefully selected number of runners sent here, about whom the market is often a good guide, as his handicappers sent off at odds of 7/4 to 6/1 are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+44.1% ROI) profit on the A/W here, including of note/relevance today...

  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.02pts (+77.4%) in races worth less than £8,000
  • 8/20 (40%) for 12.48pts (+62.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.51pts (+96.7%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/15 (40%) for 12.34pts (+82.25%) with male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.97pts (+85.5%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 11.2pts (+186.6%) over this 6f C&D
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.74pts (+82%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.02pts (+117%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.08pts (+127%) with previous course and distance winners

I don't really want to dilute the dataset too much to create an angle, but you might be interested to know that 3yr olds racing for less than £8k within a month of their last run are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 13.97pts (+155.2% ROI), including males at 3/3 (100%) for 8.28pts (+276%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Wednesday, with some 10/3 elsewhere at Hills & Spreadex but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!