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Dashing Roger success could lead to bigger things

Dashing Roger could be aimed at some major handicaps later in the season on soft ground following his victory in the Coral Whitsun Cup Handicap at Sandown.

William Stone’s four-year-old improved in leaps and bounds during the last campaign, seeing his mark rise 21lb in the process.

He had failed to cut much ice in three races this season to date, but back on his favoured soft ground looked a different proposition.

Marco Ghiani struggled to get him to settle in the early stages, but once he did he was in the perfect position to strike and took two lengths out of the field.

Sword Beach began to close and Dashing Roger’s stride shortened up the hill, but he clung on for a fifth career success.

“He just loves the ground, that’s the key to him, it’s got to be soft,” said Stone of the 5-1 winner.

“Literally the softer the better. I think that is why he has been struggling, putting him back on this has helped.

“He was very keen and I was a bit worried he might get caught, but luckily the line came quick enough.

“I’d have to leave his targets up to the owner (Ron Spore), but they think a lot of him and we know it’s the ground that counts.

“Maybe the Balmoral at the end of the season (at Ascot) would be an option, but the main thing is the ground.”

Stone was narrowly denied a double when the Hollie Doyle-ridden Final Watch was just touched off in the Coral “Supporting Prostate Cancer” Handicap by Coul Kat (9-1).

Rod Millman’s three-year-old stuck to his task well under Ben Curtis to win by a length.

Rob Hornby in action aboard Sweet Reward (left, yellow/blue)
Rob Hornby in action aboard Sweet Reward (left, yellow/blue) (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Earlier on the card Jonathan Portman got saddled a welcome winner when Sweet Reward (10-1) came home in front in the Play Coral “Racing-Super-Series” For Free Handicap.

It was a first winner in 24 days for the trainer, who said: “His ideal trip is nine furlongs. He did stay today, but I was just worried about the stiff mile and a quarter on this sticky ground. Rob (Hornby) said he definitely stayed and he had to fight off several horses.

“He likes to get his toe in and he wouldn’t want it too firm. He is a very brave horse and it has taken a couple of races to blow the cobwebs away. I would have been disappointed if he wasn’t in the first three today. We’ve not run very many, but that was very welcome.”

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

6.40 Kempton : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led over 1f, soon steadied in 3rd, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd again entering final furlong, soon every chance, no extra and well held when edged left final 100 yards)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

As ever the Geegeez racecard and report suite provide a stack of information, starting with the card itself...

...and then our ratings...

...before heading over to check the Shortlist (win)...

... and the Shortlist (place)...

...which lead us back to the card and the Instant Expert tab set to win...

...and then its place variant...

All of which combine to form a fairly compelling case for a horse suited by conditions, hailing from an in-form yard that has done well here at Yarmouth in the past. I don't want to add too much to the above for fear of information overload, but to just add a little meat to those bones, I'd say...

...that the horse has won 2 of 11 starts, but both wins have come from just two attempts in 8-10 runner handicaps over 7f/1m of a mark in the 70's this year, within 2 to 5 weeks of his last run, all of which are in situ today.

I'd also like to briefly touch on trainer William Stone's record here at Yarmouth highlighted by the C1 and C5 icons. I won't go into the actual 1yr and 5yr data with you, because you can click the trainer icon on the card to see those instantly, but what I do want to show you is a quick direct comparison between William's overall record of...

...which isn't much to shout about if we're honest, but since the start of 2019, his 2-5 yr olds in 8-11 runner handicaps during June-October here at Yarmouth have finished 411112 with the latest qualifier only beaten by a nose here 17 days ago. Stat-wise, those six runners are...

...and I think that's where I'll leave this for today...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.45 Chepstow : Daheer @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Stayed in centre early, prominent when edged across to join field after 2f, ridden 3f out, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Starting as usual with the UK's most informative racecard...

As you can see, this horse was of immediate interest, because his trainer William Stone is one of a number of trainers I look out for in Class 5 handicaps. In fact, since the start of last season, both Class 5 & 6 contests have proved to be very rewarding for Mr Stone's followers, as shown below...

...with the average win price suggesting that today's long-ish odds shouldn't put you off taking a punt here.

A quick look at the 12 from 40 record shows...

  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 80.24pts (+250.8%) during April to July inclusive
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 86.43pts (+332.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 85.41pts (+294.5%) at odds ranging from 7/2 to 20/1
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 81.44pts (+313.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m2f
  • 7/20 (35%) for 27.47pts (+137.4%) on good to firm ground
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 50.95pts (+268.2%) with LTO placers
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 51.96pts (+399.7%) at class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 47.95pts (+532.8%) here at Yarmouth
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 8.68pts (+124%) for today's jockey Marco Ghiani...

...whilst those sent off at 7/2 to 20/1 in 7-11 runners contests over 6f to 1m2f during April to July are 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for some 84.45pts (+767.8% ROI) with the four beaten runners including two runners-up, a third and a fourth place, whilst those 11 runners have a 2 from 2 record here at Yarmouth...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday with bet365 BOG, buts always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.