Tag Archive for: Willie Mullins

2026 Punchestown Gold Cup Trends

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Staged at the five-day Punchestown Festival in April/May - the Punchestown Gold Cup is a Grade One contest run over 3m1f.

The race version we see today was first run back in 1999 and since then has been won by some leading names, including Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Imperial Call, Kicking King, War Of Attrition & Don Cossack - while the 2012 Grand National winner, Neptune Collonges, took this twice before he landed the Aintree marathon.

Last year's winner was the Martin Brassil-trained Fastorslow, who lowered the colours of that year's Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs - for a second time in the race.

Did you know – 15 of the last 22 Punchestown Gold Cup winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old, while 17 of the last 22 winners were Irish-trained?

Here at GeeGeez, we take a look back at recent Punchestown Gold Cup winners, plus highlight the key stats ahead of the 2026 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 29th April 2026.

Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2025 - GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (5/6 fav)
2024 - FASTORSLOW (7/2)
2023 – FASTORSLOW (20/1)
2022 – ALLAHO (6/5 fav)
2021 – CLAN DES OBEAUX (10/3)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

19/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
17/22 – Irish-trained winners
16/22 – Aged 8 or younger
15/22 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
12/22– Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
11/22 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
11/22 – Winning favourites
10/22 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
9/22 – Won last time out
6/22 - Trained by Willie Mullins (6 of the last 12)
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 11/2
10 of the last 20 favourites have won
Only 5 of the last 20 winners aged 9+
Paul Townend has only 2 winners in the race (Galopin Des Champs 2025 & Allaho 2022)
11 of the last 17 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 3 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
12 of the last 26 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase

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Monday Musings: BBC Shows National Apathy

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Have you ever needed to get somewhere but have found yourself stuck in traffic, writes Tony Stafford. Of course you have. At £1.90 a litre for diesel (if you’re lucky) you would imagine there would be fewer than usual cars out on the North Circular Road in London, early on a Saturday April afternoon, but no.

I needed to get home to watch the Grand National having undertaken an errand but realised it unlikely unless I wanted to collect a guaranteed speeding ticket. Brainwave! Didn’t BBC Radio Five Live cover every race of the Cheltenham Festival’s four days uninterrupted last month, with Gina Brice at the helm? Why wouldn’t they give some attention to the event their admirable chief commentator (and West Ham United fan) John Hunt rightly described as the “most famous race in the world”?

We had the vital matter beforehand of full commentary of Brentford versus Everton from 3pm but with the big race starting an hour later, Steve Crossman, hosting the day’s coverage from Aintree, assured racing fans that there would be the best build-up to the race, with the football switching to Radio Five Sports Extra while we were at Aintree.

Needless to say, there were five additional minutes to the first half at Brentford, so it wasn’t until 3.50 and 35 seconds that the half-time whistle blew.

Once more, this time by commentator Ian Dennis, we were promised all the build-up was on its way. If you want to stay with the football, retune to Sports Extra, otherwise here it’s all about the 178th Grand National.

Crossman by now had the microphone, announcing there’s ten minutes to go and that he had just “seen I Am Maximus in the golden dark brown colours” (sic). Then without a second breath he added, “half times in the football, Burnley/Brighton” and we got a brief report on that so important match.

Next Steve was “in the parade ring with the suits, dresses – all the colours of the rainbow. On the course, John Hunt”. “Can Willie Mullins win it again and make it three in a row to equal Vincent O’Brien’s feat of 70 years ago?”

John spotted Panic Attack and Gerri Colombe, one of five runners for Gordon Elliott, and noted JP McManus and his six runners.

Steve jumped in, “Half-time Oxford 1-0, St Mirren…, Southampton 0 Derby 1. Other half-times <without reports>”.

Seamlessly, he switched back to Aintree and Davy Russell, twice the winner on Tiger Roll. “When you go out to ride in the Grand National what do you feel?”

Davy says, “You have to keep calm, take your routine, think about which horses you want to be around, and those you don’t want to be near <in the race>.

Again Steve showed his nimbleness. “Half-time, Hearts… Could the door be creaking open for Celtic? The reporter said, “Celtic are dominating the ball…”

Steve again: “Other scores, League 2 Newport/ Harrogate. That reporter informed Grand National fans hanging on every word that Newport had achieved the great escape in avoiding relegation from the Football League nine years ago and now that fate seems destined for basement club Harrogate.

Back to John. “The last chance for punters to have a bet.” Over to Rob Nothman who has been at the BBC since the time they used to broadcast live sport on TV. “Betting movements. I Am Maximus is favourite at 13/2, Jagwar second favourite at 15/2 ahead of Panic Attack at 8/1.”

Time marches on, but it stands still if you want football info. Live scores… but even as the last dregs of the halftimes around the country were dribbled out, the sound of bugles could be heard in the background.

Steve again. “This sound tells us that it’s nearly time, the buglers of the King’s Guard in their red tunics and black caps. Davy is still with us.”

Davy: “So many bright colours, bays, greys, all the jockeys’ colours. Gerri Colombe is a good horse, Oscars Brother, trained by Connor King and ridden by his brother, Daniel. “

Steve: “The jockeys climb on board … and walk past Blackmore’s Bar named after Rachael, the first woman to ride the winner of the race. Then Red Rum’s Bar. Toby McCain-Mitchell, grandson of three-time winner Red Rum’s trainer Ginger McCain has the ride on Top Of The Bill.”

Back to John. “They are cantering down right in front of us” and then John introduces his three co-commentators, in order Darren Owen, Gary O’Brien and Gina Brice, the first woman, they say, to commentate on the race. Do I not remember though in the dim and distant past, Aintree’s then owner Mirabel Topham, an actress in her younger days, once making a very amateurish attempt at doing so when the normal commentator stayed away?

Back to Steve. “Davy, I bet the heart rate goes through the roof when the race starts.”

Davy: “Yes, but it’s eerily quiet all the way round.” Davy valiantly and generously tries to get Andrew Thornton, another former jockey and regular Sky Sports Racing man in the north, also one of the pillars of the Cheltenham radio coverage, into the discussion, but he’s shut down.

Steve now must bring in the script he presumably wrote that morning, thus. “You might love the manicured greens of Augusta, the clean white lines of the football but this is all about the torn-up turf, mud, sand and hammering hooves.”

John says: “And torn-up tickets! It’s the biggest betting race of the year, so Rob?”

“I Am Maximus is down to 11/2 clear favourite ahead of 7/1 Panic Attack and 8/1 Jagwar.”

By now they were standing at the start and at 4.02 23, 12 minutes and two seconds after the half-time whistle at Brentford, they were off. The money had continued to go on I Am Maximus, apparently principally a £100k winning bet, reputedly from none other than his owner JP McManus. A hundred grand bet from JP is like a tenner from most of the punters there on the day and in the betting shops of the UK. Not to mention a fiver for you and me!

I stopped off straight after the race to get a bar of chocolate in a petrol station and got back to the car at 4.15 on the dot. Radio Five Live happily had sorted all the post-race thoughts from its team by then and we were back at Brentford. No need to retune then!

Bang on 5pm, the strains of the introduction to the station’s long-running Sports Report programme, still with Steve in the saddle, as it were, from Aintree. He did have a quite lengthy and informative interview with Willie Mullins, keeping John Hunt nearby to help Steve avoid the obvious blunders that the once-a-year “expert” can make.

Willie said how he had wanted to concentrate on the Gold Cup for I Am Maximus and leave the Grand National alone as he’s already won it. “But thankfully, JP was firm wanting him to have another try.”

Mullins suggested there would still be time to win a Gold Cup. “Didn’t L’Escargot win a Gold Cup and then a Grand National?”

Quite right in some respect, but the amazing L’Escargot won two Gold Cups, age seven and eight, then at the age of 12, at the fourth Aintree attempt, overturned a previous defeat in the race by Red Rum, by 15 lengths all from the last fence! How good was he? That was one of two second places for the race’s greatest alongside the three wins. Even the very classy I Am Maximus would do well to match that!

Having backed L’Escargot for that first Gold Cup at 14/1 ante-post I watched him drift to 33’s on the day, but it remains one of the thrills of my racing life being there to see him win, as it was on my first ever visit to the meeting when he won a division of the Gloucestershire Hurdle.

To win a Grand National five years after a first Gold Cup was astonishing. His owner, Raymond Guest, also went down in history for a similarly amazing double. He was the winning owner of one of the great Derby winners, Sir Ivor, trained by Vincent O’Brien after the legendary handler had packed up the jumping game as he had nothing more to prove.

Last week I said I was bored with the Grand National as it had all become too predictable. Mullins did win it again, but he only had a fifth and an eighth among his other seven runners. There were again two UK horses in the first ten, McManus’ Iroko and Johnnywho (4th). The former followed I Am Maximus through late on to pip Joseph O’Brien’s Jordans for second after the Jordans had looked to have the race won under Ben Jones’ aggressive ride.

That meant last year’s second and fourth moved up one spot and two respectively, as the winner, Mullins’ Nick Rockett, was a late withdrawal. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero reckon runner-up Iroko can make it third time lucky next year.

Although rated 150, so guaranteed to get in the race, Jordans had only one win from 11 runs over fences on his card, but fortunately that was over three miles, otherwise he wouldn’t have been qualified to run. Joseph O’Brien is sure to exploit him to great effect in the future.

There was a measure of unpredictability this year, as seven horses fell with another seven unseating their riders as 16 of the 34 finished the course. At the first fence Patrick Mullins, last year’s winning rider, was unseated from his father’s Grangeclare West, the third home last year. Two more casualties quickly followed: Quai De Bourbon, also Mullins, 33/1, fell at the second and Panic Attack, badly hampered by the latter there, departed at the big ditch that followed.

So Dan Skelton didn’t bring home the Grand National, but four winners on the day (184 on the season) brought him to £4,762,920 against Mullins’ Grand National-enhanced figure of £2,668,886. Dan could be in reach of that unprecedented £5 million seasonal haul with money aplenty on offer at Ayr and Sandown and loads of little fish in between (little fish are sweet, as Arthur Stephenson used to say). I think he can do it.

As to the BBC, I don’t want you to think that Steve Crossman made a bad job of things. It’s just that whoever produced that show ought to have switched the entire football coverage from 3pm onwards to Sports Extra, leaving a full hour to dissect the many interesting aspects of what they did repeatedly say was the world’s biggest race. Then another period of reflection bringing it up to 5pm and Sports Report.

In the end, it was 12 minutes and two seconds, with at least half of it given away to keep us racing fans abreast of events at St Mirren and the travails of Harrogate Town.

I wonder how the executives at the beleaguered Beeb can equate six minutes as the “best build-up to the biggest betting race in the world” – with the reputed (was it 70?) BBC staff being sent across to cover the Masters golf at the same time at licence-payers’ expense. That’s another major event you need to search for elsewhere to see it live.

The BBC has had more than its share of scandals in recent times. That they no longer televise the Grand National is shameful enough, leaving it to ITV and Racing TV. But to think that six minutes is regarded as the best build-up coverage shows just how warped the Corporation’s values have become.

- TS

Monday Musings: Bored of the National?

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Are you bored with the Grand National? I am and I would never have believed it could happen in the days when I used to make my selection in the Daily Telegraph for the race straight after going to the weights press conference, writes Tony Stafford.

That started, believe it or not, when Red Rum got up to beat Crisp in 1973 – he won it twice more, of course – and happened another eight times in my three decades of trying. Then there were 40 runners, stiff, unforgiving fences, many fallers, few completions and the race, if not stopping a nation, as the Melbourne Cup reputedly does, was the vehicle for office sweepstakes all around the country, mainly eagerly contested by people who never bet otherwise.

Last year, with the new limitation on runners, down to 34, easier obstacles and a slightly shorter trip, it has become almost another long-distance steeplechase on a park course to be mopped up by the big Irish brigades.

With no incentive not to run as the need for specialist jumping skills other than getting from one side to the other has become irrelevant, the same old names will be trotted out year on year.

The 2025 version had the full complement of 34 runners and 16 of them (41%) completed. The so-called “fearsome” Aintree fences, 30 of them, accounted for only five casualties. Three horses fell, one unseated the rider and a fifth was brought down, so just 14% actual casualties. Additionally, 13 were pulled up.

I could have landed anywhere over the past half Century, but I thought 20 years would be enough for most racing fans’ appetites. That year, 40 horses took their place in the line-up, just nine finished – Numbersixvalverde, trained by Martin Brassil in Ireland, beating the 2005 winner Hedgehunter, notable as the first Grand National winner for Willie Mullins.

Hedgehunter had another three attempts, during sparing campaigns between tries, while in 2006, the 2004 winner, Amberleigh House, ridden by Graham Lee with to my mind the outstanding ride in the race during my seven decades of watching, was pulled up as a 14-year-old behind Numbersixvalverde.

It took another 19 years before Ireland’s perennial champion trainer added to it with I Am Maximus, who tried valiantly to repeat history for the stable last April, failing but only in an honourable second place as Hedgehunter had done almost two decades earlier.

Here, Saturday’s top-weight had to give best to the almost unconsidered Nick Rockett, a 33/1 shot ridden by the trainer’s son and supreme amateur Patrick Mullins.  He too will be back again, second highest-rated after having an interrupted career since.

To complete the Mullins stranglehold in terms of recent Aintree form, we have Grangeclare West, third last year and now nicely into form having won the Bobbyjo Chase, often a good guide to the big one. There he beat another of the high-weighted horses in Saturday’s line-up in Gordon Elliott’s Gerri Colombe.

Gerri Colombe is one of five Elliott horses guaranteed to run, and with the riches on offer, £500,000 to the winner and a total of £1,000,000 to disperse, it’s hardly surprising that we’ll be lucky to get more than one or two absentees by race time.

Elliott trained Silver Birch, the 2007 winner, so early into his training career that he had yet to train a single winer in Ireland. He has proved throughout the subsequent two decades, with a blip or two along the way, that he knows how to prepare an Aintree horse, winning twice with Tiger Roll, who probably would have equalled Red Rum’s three wins if Covid hadn’t intervened to stop the 2020 edition of the race.

Belatedly back to 2006, I must say there was one element I hadn’t either been aware of or simply forgot. The winner’s owner, Mr Carroll, collected a few pennies short of £400,000. With the loss of value due to annual inflation over the intervening time, that equates to an equivalent of almost £700,000 today.

So, while we gasp at the big prize pool on offer, it still hasn’t kept pace with inflation, not that Mullins minded 12 months ago when he copped £885k of the million total on offer.

In 2006, in a field of 40, nine got round. Eleven fell, six unseated rider and two refused. As last year, there were plenty of pulled-up horses, 12 against 13 last year. Thus only 22% finished the course and another 46% were casualties.

If you thought Elliott had a strong hand as he aims for a fourth win in the race, Mullins with nine of the 34 guaranteed places, has 26% of the entire field. Add the other three top Irish jumps trainers, Gavin Cromwell, Henry de Bromhead and Joseph O’Brien, and you get 21 of the 34, almost two-thirds. Only nine UK-trained horses are guaranteed a run, two of them, Iroko and Jagwar, owned by JP McManus and trained by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, both with decent chances.

Others I would like to see win are Mr Vango, trained by my long-term Daily Telegraph colleague, the late John Oaksey’s daughter Sara Bradstock and Panic Attack, trained by Dan Skelton.

Panic Attack has been a star already this season, the ten-year-old mare impressively winning the Coral Gold Cup (formerly Hennessy) over 3m2f and after another easy win at Cheltenham In January, she then finished third to Mullins’ brilliant mare Dinoblue in the Grade 1 Mares Chase when dropping back to 2m4f at the Festival last time out.

Panic Attack has been a stand-out contributor to Dan Skelton’s season in which he has become the first trainer ever to break the £4 million barrier in a season. Last year Mullins earned £3,570k from his UK runners, but that had twice previously been exceeded by Paul Nicholls, Skelton’s mentor.

Nicholls set a mark of £3,646,511 in 2007/08 and then exceeded it by a paltry £75 another 15 seasons later. If Skelton could win with Panic Atack it would push his takings towards an almost unthinkable £5 million. To achieve that though he would need to pick up many of the valuable prizes this week at Aintree, next week at Ayr and on finals day at Sandown later in the month.

It would be a supreme achievement should Panic Attack win. She would be the first mare to do so since the Jack O’Donoghue-trained Nickel Coin in 1951, 75 years ago. Neville Crump, three years earlier, won with Sheila’s Cottage, the first of her sex to be successful in the race since 1902. It isn’t easy – only 13 mares have won in the near 200 year history of the race, most in the days when they were walked to the course! If she does win, it would rank as Dan’s most treasured career moment.

Meanwhile, with the UK turf flat campaign still in its “phoney war” phase, most interest this Easter is with the domestic Mullins/Elliott rivalry at Fairyhouse and Cork yesterday and today.

Numerically there isn’t much between them with Mullins running a total of 52 horses over the two days and Elliott 48, but as ever it is in the Graded races where Mullins holds the advantage. He needed to retrieve a little over £300k on his rival, having lodged €4,175,250 with 172 wins from 704 runs and 284 individual horses.

Elliott’s 171 wins have come from 1066 runs from 314 individual horses. They don’t race every day in Ireland by a long shot but that’s an average of two runs every day for Mullins and three for Elliott. Would you want to take them on? That makes it even more admirable that young Mr Skelton – maybe not so young now – has managed to see everyone off and in record-breaking fashion too!

The feature of yesterday’s racing was Harry Cobden’s continuing quest, eventually into the 30s, to ride a first winner in Ireland. JP McManus’ retained jockey for next season finally got the job done on the last of six Mullins runners, five of them favourites, and four, like the sole winner Funiculi Funicula, at odds-on.

As to my Grand National 1-2-3 it’s Panic Attack from Banbridge (Joseph O’Brien) and Mr Vango. Sorry Willie, but there’s always next year.

- TS

2026 Irish Grand National Trends

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Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2026 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.

The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday, which this year falls on 6th April 2025. While several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – I Am Maximus, Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.

But this year the Irish National comes BEFORE the Aintree Grand National, which is on 11th April.

Regarding the stats - did you know?

The 19 of the last 22 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 16 of the last 22 successful horses were Irish-bred.

We’ve also seen just three winning favourites in the last 22 renewals, while in 2021 we saw a 150/1 winner of the race - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN - and 11 of the last 22 returned 20/1+.

To prove any horse really can win this National.

I Am Maximus (2023) gave Willie Mullins just his second win in the race but also provided Paul Townend with his first. As mentioned he went onto win the Aintree Grand National the following season.

In 2024 Intense Raffles won the Irish National, but despite being well-fancied for the Aintree National was pulled up.

While last year (2025) the Rebecca Curtis-trained Haiti Couleurs raided Ireland to win the Irish Grand National - he went onto win the Welsh National the following season (2025/26)

Recent Irish Grand National Winners

2025 - HAITI COULEURS (13/2)
2024 - INTENSE RAFFLES (13/2)
2023 – I AM MAXIMUS (8/1)
2022 – LORD LARIAT (40/1)
2021 - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN (150/1)
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav)
2018 - GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1)
2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)

Irish Grand National Betting Trends

20/22 – Won over at least 3m previously
20/22 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
19/22 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
19/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
16/22 – Irish bred
16/22 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
16/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price
14/22 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
13/22 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Finished fourth or better last time out
11/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/22 – Rated between 130-137
5/22 – Won by an English-based trainer
5/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/22 – Winning favourites (3 in the last 11)
2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2007 & 2014)
2/22 – Trained by Thomas Gibney (2 in last 13)
Trainer Dermot A McLoughlin has trained 2 of the last 5
Trainer Willie Mullins has trained 2 of the last 6
Trainer Gordon Elliott has only won the race once (2018, General Principle)
Only 5 winners since 1996 have carried 11st 1lb+ (but 2 of the last 3 carried 11-1+)
11 of the last 22 winners returned 20/1 +
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 25/1
Only 4 British-trained winners since 2005
Only 4 horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Intense Raffles (2024), I Am Maximus (2023), Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)

 

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Monday Musings: We’re Ready

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The days are getting appreciably longer, writes Tony Stafford. We’ve already snatched back three and a half hours of daylight from the miserly spans of midwinter, and Cheltenham starts tomorrow. In other words, 2026 begins now.

Two septuagenarians, Messrs Henderson and Mullins, have for decades been the major forces at the meeting, and neither is ready to lie down as the opening day entries show, but such as Dan Skelton, Ben Pauling and Olly Murphy on this side of the Irish Sea, and grittily determined Gordon Elliott, Willie’s Irish shadow for the past decade and more, as well as Gavin Cromwell and Henry de Bromhead, will be poised if either drops off from their usual lofty excellence.

Not everything will be the same. For the first time since 2011, Henderson will not be represented in the Champion Hurdle, a race he has won nine times. In the competitive absence of Group-seeking flat-minded nine-year-old Constitution Hill and injured Sir Gino, he can instead watch with pride the former’s gracing of the paddock before the race we thought he might win three or even four times before injury and a strange later aversion to jumping at racing speed took over.

Mullins has three chances, principally with the mare Lossiemouth, backed over the past few days into favouritism. Less obvious are Poniros, last year’s shock Triumph Hurdle winner, and Anzadam, runner-up in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle to Golden Ace late last year.

Two more from Ireland, the drifting third-favourite and Lossiemouth last-time humbler Brighterdaysahead (Gordon), and Workahead (Henry). Maybe this 66/1 shot isn’t a feasible contender but surely Henry De Bromhead is entitled to have another crack having won the race both in 2021 and the following year with Honeysuckle.

That great course specialist, along with now-retired Rachael Blackmore, came back to win the Mares’ race as a career finale in 2023, wisely side-stepping Constitution Hill when Nicky’s phenomenon was at his peak.

It wasn’t feasible either we thought before Jeremy Scott’s Golden Ace pounced last year following Constitution Hill’s early exit and most crucially State Man’s last flight fall when Mullins’ 2024 hero looked certain to follow up. He too is missing this year through injury.

We’ve been waiting for something to emerge from where I knew not, so with all the trials and tribulations out of the way, we’re left with The New Lion, worthy, dependable, much in the way of his trainer Dan Skelton, set for a final tally of more than £4 million for the season.

The New Lion, winner of the Turners novice hurdle over 2m5f last year, could have been returning with a faultless career record, but it’s now five from six following his being the second fall guy (along with Constitution Hill) in Golden Ace’s Newcastle success, secured at another massive price.

Skelton’s big hope appeared to have the race won on his first start since last March when falling late on, leaving Golden Ace to hold off Mullins’ Anzadam. The New Lion took his time to assert in what ended up a penalty kick on Trials Day at Cheltenham, but he comes here with the right profile. Brighterdaysahead’s dominant display against Lossiemouth at the Dublin Racing Festival, it seems, hasn’t been taken seriously by the market, presumably because of her capitulation last March.

So, the three most powerful stables in the two countries this season take centre stage. Their records for the campaign domestically are remarkably similar, numerically and in money terms. Skelton’s inexorable rise to a first trainer’s championship cannot be cheated this time, even if Mullins takes all the races he contests this week, has a clean sweep of the ten paying positions in the Grand National, and nicks all the other big prizes there and at Ayr and Sandown next month.

Skelton is on £3,462k, a full £3,160k more than Mullins. Even if Willie matches last year’s four Cheltenham daily takeaways of respectively £267k, £245k, £243k and a finishing £475k – which didn’t include the Gold Cup – that would ‘only’ amount to £1,230k. I doubt Dan will be heading off on holiday over the last seven weeks of the season either.

I love looking at stats in my customary now and again mode. Which of Mullins and Elliott do you think leads the prizemoney table in Ireland? As has often been the case at this stage, and sometimes even later, it’s Elliott. It’s taken 305 individual horses and 1,002 runs, 164 of them winners, to earn €4,340k. Mullins, much more sparing with runs from his 274 individual horses, has won 161 of 661, so 500 losers for €3,963K. I wonder how many of them were odds-on [55 odds-on losers from 127 - Ed.]

Over the last fortnight Mullins has won with 13 of 35 runners, supplying in that time the same number of odds-on shots. Tomorrow, between them, Mullins and Elliott have almost half the 45 Irish-trained runners on the opening day card. The home team has 67, with Henderson striking off early with favourite Old Park Star (Supreme) against Mullins’ Mighty Park (JP McManus), then Lulamba close in the market against Willie’s favourite and last year’s Supreme winner Kopek Des Bordes in the Arkle, with another mare Kargese as the Irishman’s back-up in a terrific seven-horse line-up.

Gary and Josh Moore were the stars of Saturday’s Sandown card, and their Hansard is worthy of his place against better-publicised opponents. Add Sam Thomas’s Steel Ally, who saw off Ben Pauling’s candidate and reopposing Mambonumberfive when they met at Kempton, and it’s a heady mix.

Lulamba won the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury despite showing obvious signs of inexperience and that was never the case with Steel Ally at Kempton. In three runs over fences, he has won with increasing facility each time and has the sexiest of French jumping pedigrees being by Doctor Dino out of a mare by Martaline. At 12/1, he’s worth a second look.

When I peeped at the Racing Post last Wednesday to check I was still alive, I was described as Tony Stafford – former Daily Telegraph tipster, or was it journalist? My memory! Anyway, I am still here, and reckon that in the first race, reviving my old tipster role, I’m looking for Elliott to disappoint both Henderson and Mullins with El Cairos.

With Gary and Josh Moore last season, he did very well when amateur-ridden by then owner David Maxwell and was sold at the owner’s dispersal for £410k. The Moores will not have been surprised by the talent he is showing over hurdles, stumbling and falling unluckily on the run-in when in the lead on debut and then an easy winner from a Mullins horse last time. No doubt Gary wishes he still had him to train.

For a value bet number three, let’s go with Faye Bramley’s Winston Junior – no not named after Sir Keir – winner of his latest of three runs at Ascot in scintillating front-running style. His owners might give a clue as to why he’s 8/1 in a massive field for what deserves forever to be known as just the Fred Winter, despite whoever adds their name to it.

The trio of connections – Ronnie Bartlett, Justin Carthy (JP’s mate) and Mrs Paul Shanahan (and her husband of course) – know how to line up a winner from whichever yard their horses happen to run.

Just as I’d stopped looking, a name from a year or so ago jumped out at me. Walking On Air began life in the Nicky Henderson stable, running very well in bumpers in the colours of Mrs Doreen Tabor. He didn’t always live up to the promise of those early days and, since late in 2024, various owner combinations including Justin Carthy and Mrs Shanahan have been alongside his name.

Now it’s the Cheeky Pups and again trainer Faye Bramley, a protégé of AP McCoy’s, who trains him. The nine-year-old’s last run was a good third to Geegeez’ Dartmoor Pirate in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last month.

I mentioned top French breeding earlier. Walking On Air’s pedigree takes some beating. He’s by Michael Tabor’s Derby runner-up, the wonderful jumps sire Walk in The Park, out of his smart long-distance mare Refinement. It’s 18 years since I was alongside Harry Taylor in the Cheltenham paddock watching on the big screen as Refinement came to the line just in front in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle.

Just before the line, I turned to Harry and said, “She’s won!”.

Eyes still on the screen, Harry said, “She hasn’t!” and she hadn’t, letting Whiteoak get back by a short head. She had one more run, another second place for Jonjo O’Neill and AP McCoy in Ireland, and then retired.

I asked Michael if she would go to stud. “Me send a jump mare to stud? How f…ing old would I be before she got a runner?” Well, Michael did relent and Refinement has bred four nice jumps winners including Walking On Air. A 12/1 shot for tomorrow and also from the Bramley yard, he can make it a memorable afternoon for his young trainer.

- TS

Monday Musings: A Short Delay

/in /by

Normally we would have had both days of the Dublin Racing Festival to reflect upon this not so bright Monday morning, but it’s rather like the 1997 Grand National, writes Tony Stafford. Then, at the height of the IRA’s bombing campaign in the UK, a bomb threat led to 60,000 racegoers (including me) being evacuated from Aintree.

The race was delayed for 49 hours to the following Monday and those that could – unfortunately I couldn’t – reconvened for a single race off at 5.00 p.m. in the afternoon.

Naturally, my original tip for the race, Lord Gyllene, owned by Sir Stanley Clarke, also owner of Uttoxeter racecourse, trained by Steve Brookshaw and ridden by Tony Dobbin won the 36-runner race and its £178k prize by 25 lengths from Charlie Brooks’ Suny Bay. He started 14/1 and I don’t think I backed it!

This weekend the only villain of the piece was the ground on Saturday morning for the opening instalment of what is best known as the Willie Mullins Benefit Weekend. That card was rescheduled for today and in view of the lead up to yesterday’s programme, the ground didn’t look too bad.

The great man did win two of the Grade 1 races on the card, impressive scorers for the JP McManus/Mark Walsh team that will soon be dissolved when Harry Cobden takes over the job as his stable rider in the two countries.

First, in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase over 2m5 1/2f, Kaid d’Authie (5/1) rather than Mullins’ hotpot Final Demand (100/30 on) took the spoils. Willie had supplied three of the four runners. Then in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (2m1f) Majborough dispelled any fears about his technique over fences. He made all to beat favourite and last year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Marine Nationale by 19 lengths with an exhilarating display of front-running and fast jumping.

Majborough is now the deserved favourite for this year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase and there isn’t much that can happen in the six weeks that remain before the Festival to remove him from that position.

Mullins then had a later, and possibly even more unexpected reverse, with 10/11 shot Lossiemouth, regarded in many places as the likely Champion Hurdle winner next month following the departure from calculations of Sir Gino last weekend. In what looked beforehand a virtual match race for the Timeless Sash Windows Irish Champion Hurdle – great sponsorship that! - Lossiemouth was never going as well and was unable to match the finishing verve of Gordon Elliott’s Brighterdaysahead. That market rival was thus emphatically reversing the one-length Christmas defeat by Lossiemouth over the same course and distance.

Brighterdaysahead has now won ten of her 14 career starts. One reverse was when she failed to live up to second favouritism in last year’s Champion Hurdle, finishing a long way behind Golden Ace in fourth, a placing that even flattered her on the day.

It was won with a fair portion of good fortune by that seven-year-old mare, trained by Jeremy Scott. If anything, Golden Ace has improved her profile since. First, she ran a fine second at Punchestown last spring behind State Man, who had been denied a second Champion Hurdle victory when falling in a clear lead at the final hurdle last March. The margin of just over four lengths at Punchestown suggested Golden Ace was progressing. A gritty win in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and second to Sir Gino in the Christmas Hurdle show her continuing improvement.

State Man is another absentee this time around. We could still be seeing the 2023 champion Constitution Hill if he comes through that tantalising hurdle-avoiding gallop round Southwell on Friday evening the 20th of this month. It’s strategically placed timing-wise before the big race, Southwell having grafted Hendo’s star’s target onto an original seven-race Friday night card.

Including that new race, there’s a total of £245k on offer during the evening, and Constitution Hill’s event could hardly have been more sensitively framed. It’s a 4yos and upwards novice over 1m4f. I hope there are some nice animals to make Constitution Hill work for the £21k first prize. Make a note in your diary, 5.00 p.m. off time, first leg of that Friday night bonanza.

He is down to a 6/1 chance, despite that litany of falls in his latest appearances. Brighterdaysahead and Dan Skelton’s The New Lion, workmanlike at Cheltenham the previous weekend, vie for favouritism, with Constitution Hill coming next. Such is the paucity of serious contenders at this stage, Lossiemouth is still fourth favourite with Golden Ace just behind her.

Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth are age seven. I remember when Ruby Walsh was talking on ITV the other day, he pointed out that Lossiemouth also has the mares’ race as a Cheltenham option – and that was before yesterday’s disappointment. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Willie decides on that course of action.

Now you know I love a statistic, even if as the Editor will be the first to point out, my interpretation is not always flawless. Mullins was matched for winners yesterday by Gordon Elliott who also picked up a valuable handicap hurdle with Bowensonfire (10/1). The UK champion jockey of that name, Sean Bowen, making his first visit to Leopardstown, is indeed “on fire” and he didn’t waste any time getting a winner. He was on Backmersackme who took another nice €88k’s worth for the Emmet Mullins’ (Willie’s nephew) stable.

Sorry Sean, you slipped in there before I could illustrate again what an unbalanced affair top Irish jumps racing is – as if it wasn’t already obvious. Yesterday Wilie Mullins had 32 runners on the card while Gordon Elliott had just the meagre ten, so 42 between them from a total of 96 on the day.

Today, Willie has 19 declared to Gordon’s 23, so between them 42 of 77, and over the two days 84 from 173, slightly more than 48 per cent. I think that’s ridiculous.

Willie’s UK raids continue to be hit-and-miss. On Saturday, impressive Kempton Christmas winner Kitzbuhel was widely expected to dominate Sandown’s Scilly Isles Novices Chase. Perhaps it was being denied an early lead that unsettled him, with the Fergal O’Brien-trained Sixmilebridge setting a fast pace in front. He never looked in danger of defeat once the favourite and a re-routed Paul Townend checked out at the sixth fence, where the rider was unseated after some poor right-handed leaps.

As I’ve already awarded the trainers’ championship to Dan Skelton, who sensibly kept away from Leopardstown, I must report over the past two weeks he’s had 20 winners from 54 runners, barely half Mullins and Elliott will have jointly sent out over two days in Dublin. Now past £3 million, it’s time to toast a great young force in the training ranks.

- TS

2026 Irish Gold Cup Trends

/in /by

Staged at Leopardstown racecourse the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup is run over a distance of 3m 1/2f, with 17 fences to be tackled.

First run in 1987, the contest now another recognised trial for the Cheltenham Gold Cup run a month later with Jodami (1993), Imperial Call (1996), Sizing John (2017), Galopin Des Champs (2023 & 2024) the only horses to take both races in the same season.

Leading Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is always feared as he’s sent out 13 of the last 25 runnings, including 4 of the last 6 renewals (Gordon Elliott the other two), while UK raiders have only taken 2 of the last 17 runnings with popular greys The Listener (2008) and 2012 Grand National hero, Neptune Collonges (2009).

Mullins is back for more in 2026 with his three-time winner Galopin Des Champs back to try and win the race for a fourth time.

If he can win again, he'll join Florid Pearl on four wins in the race.

However, the other main Irish yards of Gordon Elliott (2 wins), despite winning it in 2020 and 2022 and Henry de Bromhead (no wins) are yet to really stamp their mark on this prize the way Willie Mulins has.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners and gives you all the key stats to take into the 2026 renewal – this year run on Saturday 31st January.

Recent Irish Gold Cup Winners

2025 - GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (1/2 fav)
2024 - GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (1/3 fav)
2023 – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (30/100 fav)
2022 – CONFLATED (18/1)
2021 - KEMBOY (11/4)
2020 - DELTA WORK (5/2)
2019 - BELLSHILL (2/1)
2018 - EDWULF (33/1)
2017 - SIZING JOHN (100/30)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (20/1)
2015 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (4/1)
2014 – LAST INSTALMENT (8/1)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (11/8)
2012 – QUEL ESPRIT (5/4 fav)
2011 – KEMPES (5/1)
2010 – JONCOL (9/4 fav)
2009 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/13 fav)
2008 – THE LISTENER (2/1 fav)
2007 – BEEF OR SALMON (11/4)
2006 – BEEF OR SALMON  (2/5 fav)
2005 – RULE SUPREME (11/2)
2004 – FLORIDA PEARL (5/1)
2003 – BEEF OR SALMON (Evs fav)

Irish Gold Cup Betting Trends

23/23 – Had run at Leopardstown over fences before
22/23 – Last ran was 6 weeks or less
20/23 – Had won over at least 3m before in their career (any code)
19/23– Aged 9 or younger
19/23 – Had won a Grade 1 Chase before
17/23 – Ran in the Savills Chase (Leopardstown) last time out
17/23 – Placed favourites
17/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/23– Winners that went onto run in that season’s Gold Cup (3 winners, Galopin Des Champs 2023, 2024, Sizing John 2017)
16/23 – Had won between 3-5 times over fences (rules) before
15/23 – Had won over fences at Leopardstown before
15/23 – Rated 160 or higher
15/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/23 – Irish-bred
13/23 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/23 – Trained by Willie Mullins (14 wins in total)
10/23 – Won last time out
9/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/23 – Won by a UK-based trainer
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 5/1

 

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2026 Thyestes Chase Trends

/in /by

Staged at Gowran Park racecourse, in Ireland, the Thyestes Chase is run over a distance of 3m, and is often contested by horses that go onto run in the Grand National later in the season.

That said, we’ve not seen any winners of this race go onto win the Aintree race that same season, but Hedgehunter (2004) and Numbersixvalverde (2005) did go onto glory in the Aintree marathon later in their careers.

In recent years, the Willie Mullins yard have won the Thyestes Chase SEVEN times in the last 13 runnings, and TEN times in all – he looks to have another strong hand this year too.

Gordon Elliott has won the prize twice since 2018, while 12 months ago we saw another Willie Mullins winner when Nick Rockett won the race and later go onto land the Grand National at Aintree.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at recent winners and highlights the key stats to take into the 2026 running – this year staged on Thursday 22nd January.

==========================================

Recent Thyestes Chase Winners

2025 - NICK ROCKETT (9/2 jfav)
2024 - AIN'T THAT A SHAME (14/1)
2023 - CAREFULLY SELECTED (9/2 fav)
2022 – LONGHOUSE POET (9/1)
2021 – COKO BEACH (9/1)
2020 – TOTAL RECALL (16/1)
2019 – INVITATION ONLY (4/1 fav)
2018 - MONBEG NOTORIOUS (7/2 fav)
2017 – CHAMPAGNE WEST (7/1)
2016 – MY MURPHY (16/1)
2015 – DJAKADAM (9/2)
2014 – ON HIS OWN (12/1)
2013 – JADANLI (25/1)
2012 – ON HIS OWN (10/1)
2011 – SIEGEMASTER (16/1)
2010 – WHINSTONE BOY (5/1)
2009 – PREISTS LEAP (20/1)
2008 – PREISTS LEAP (20/1)
2007 – HOMER WELLS (16/1)
2006 – DUN DOIRE (9/4 fav)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (8/1)
2004 – HEDGEHUNTER (10/3 fav)
2003 – BE MY BELLE (4/1)

Thyestes Chase Betting Trends

23/23 – Won by an Irish-based stable
21/23 – Irish bred
21/23 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (rules) before
20/23 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
16/23 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
16/23 – Aged 9 or younger
15/23 – Placed favourites
13/23 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/23 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/23 – Had run at Gowran Park over fences before
10/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/23 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
9/23 – Trained by Willie Mullins (won the race 10 times in all)
8/23 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (1 winner, Nick Rockett, 2025)
6/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Won last time out
3/23 - Ridden by Paul Townend (3 of the last 12)
2/23 - Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 8)
2/23 - Trained by Henry De Bromhead (2 of the last 9)
2/23 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 10/1

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2025 Savills Chase Trends

/in /by

Staged at Leopardstown racecourse, Ireland, the Grade One Savills Chase (formerly the Lexus Chase) is run over a distance of 3m and is often seen as a decent guide ahead of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, run later that season.

Some great names in recent years to land both races are Denman (2007/08) and Best Mate (2003/04), while considering the contest is staged in Ireland, we’ve actually seen eight UK-based horses come over and win the prize in the last 24 years.

While for the last two seasons (2023 and 2024) we've seen the Willie Mullins-trained Galopin Des Champs romp away with the prize.

Here at GeeGeez, we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key trends ahead of the 2025 renewal - Sunday 28th December 2025.

Recent Savills Chase Winners

2024 - GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
2023 - GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
2022 – CONFLATED
2021 - GALVIN
2020 - A PLUS TARD
2019 – DELTA WORK
2018 - KEMBOY
2017 - ROAD TO RESPECT
2016 – OUTLANDER
2015 – DON POLI
2014 – ROAD TO RICHES
2013 – BOBS WORTH
2012 – TIDAL BAY
2011 – SYNCHRONISED
2010 – PANDORAMA
2009 – WHAT A FRIEND
2008 – EXOTIC DANCER
2007 – DENMAN
2006 – THE LISTENER
2005 – BEEF OR SALMON
2004 – BEEF OR SALMON
2003 – BEST MATE
2002 – BEEF OR SALMON

Savills Chase Betting Trends

23/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
23/24 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
22/24 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
22/24 – Aged 8 or younger
20/24 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
19/24 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/24 – Won by an Irish bred horse
16/24 – Placed favourites
14/24 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
12/24 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
9/24 – Winning favourites
8/24 – Won by a UK-based stable
6/24 – Won last time out
4/24 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/24 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/24 – Ridden by Jack Kennedy (3 of the last 9)
3/24 – Went onto win that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
Trainers Gordon Elliott (4) and Willie Mullins (4) have won 8 of the last 10 runnings

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Monday Musings: It’s Hard to Wait

/in /by

When you happen to be 78 years of age and own a racehorse that not only is the best you’ve ever had but also could be a future steeplechase champion, it’s hard not to be impatient, writes Tony Stafford. It must have been excruciating for Harry Redknapp to have to wait 331 days for his hitherto unbeaten young chaser The Jukebox Man to make his reappearance over the weekend after injury kept him away from last March’s big spring festivals.

The year before, The Jukebox Man and his trainer Ben Pauling had tried valiantly to keep the Irish at bay with second places at both Cheltenham and Aintree. He got to within a head of the Gordon Elliott-trained Stellar Story – no relation Wilf! – at Cheltenham, then was five and a half lengths behind Mullins’ Dancing City at Aintree, but more than seven lengths ahead of third-placed Cherie D’Am for Dan Skelton.

The two novice chases he contested last winter were comfortably annexed. First, he dropped to 2m4f for a Grade 2 at Newbury and beat Alan King’s Masaccio a couple of lengths before winning Kempton’s big Christmas novice chase, the three-mile Kauto Star with another similarly controlled performance.

So now it was Haydock and an Intermediate Chase over an intermediate distance of 2m5.5f, but that track takes plenty of stamina and jumping prowess. Again, the margin was modest, once more a couple of lengths, but Ben Jones always had everything under control and the Greenall/Guerrerio-trained and J P McManus-owned Iroko is no ordinary horse to brush aside.

His last run before Saturday was a few miles west along the East Lancs Road at Aintree where he started as the 13/2 favourite for the Grand National and finished a creditable fourth. Iroko predictably kept galloping all the way to the line under Jonjo junior’s urgings on Saturday but never looked like getting to the winner.

The King George, which would be a Boxing Day return to Kempton for Harry’s horse, is the hope but as a former much-respected manager of Tottenham Hotspur and other football clubs, he knows well that injuries to man or horse can happen at any time.

He was talking with friends about his increased involvement in racing on Champions Day at Ascot last month. And it was clear that it was fingers crossed that nothing would go wrong before Haydock. It didn’t, and now there’s no doubt this Poplar-born phenomenon has no wish to slow down, kept solid by his 58-year marriage to Sandra.

There must be something about a working-class upbringing in that part of East London that instils permanency. <I started life a few miles north of there at Hackney Wick in the early days after World War 2>. My mate Harry Taylor beat me by a few months, half a mile away and he celebrated an 80th birthday bash with friends and his lovely family on Saturday afternoon.

Organised as ever, I’d lost the original invitation but checked with him on Saturday morning. “Yes, it’s Northwick Park Golf Course.” Rain made the journey tortuous but once I got to the place, near Harrow in West London, my phone’s Maps feature sent me to a golf venue of sorts. I went inside, asked at reception where was the party and I was directed to a room hosting an Indian wedding! The food smelled great, but I thought I’d better persevere.

Harry had me going around in circles up and down the roads around the massive Northwick Park Hospital, once saying “I know where you are!” and I was just about to give best when his grandson Connor called on Harry’s phone. “It’s at a different golf club, near where we live in Harpenden <that’s Hertfordshire!>. You should make it in an hour!” I did and loved the Englebert Humperdinck tribute guy. If only school mate Tony Peters (my exact birth twin, formerly known as Zahl) had been there; he’s been doing unwitting tributes to the singer for years!

A much more venerable son of that part of East London is 92-year-old Bill Gredley, who while still very active with flat-racing home-bred horses from his well-established operation at Stetchworth Park Stud in Newmarket, has also developed a formidable jumps team. Almost everything nowadays is in training with James Owen. Tim Gredley, Bill’s son, after a spell riding as he modestly says, “Rolls Royces in point-to-points, I didn’t need to be much good!” is back with his first love and is hoping to get into the Great Britain show-jumping team for the next Olympics.

A much better-known veteran of show jumping obviously has a major connection with the foremost UK jumps training operation. Nick Skelton, for decades one of the best show jumping riders in the world and winner of a gold medal at the London Olympics in 2012, was at the time finalising plans for his sons’ burgeoning enterprise in Warwickshire.

That has become extremely powerful and their Grey Dawning, the impressive winner of Haydock’s Betfair Gold Cup an hour or so after The Jukebox Man’s romp, looks very over-priced to me at 16/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Day after day, illustrations of the skills of three recent champion jockeys, in order Harry Skelton, Harry Cobden and the latest Sean Bowen are offered to an admiring public. All three can be devastating, especially when riding waiting races, to the extent they often don’t get involved in their winning races until many in the stands have probably already given up. Grey Dawning on Saturday just breezed up (to coin a cliché) to last year’s winner Royale Pagaille, drew alongside and then won with a fair amount in hand. How much, you’d have to ask Harry?

This performance will have added to the Redknapp/Pauling team’s confidence in The Jukebox Man as runner-up Iroko had been second to the Skelton horse in his pre-National warm-up at Kelso last March.

Royale Pagaille also took plenty of beating as a horse with four Haydock wins. Before you say that surely as an 11-year-old his powers might be fading, that’s not to understand Venetia Williams’ training, especially of her experienced chasers.

In Horses In Training 2025, her 79-strong stable had 18 horses aged ten or older and another 22 age eight or nine. Don’t be shocked if the softer ground we’re getting heralds a characteristic midwinter bonanza for the Hereford handler.

Talking of venerable phenomena, Willie Mullins, having been putting his feet up over in Ireland after his killer pounce on the Breeders’ Cup, eased back into action with a nice little Euro 88k for the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown.

It wasn’t that surprising an outcome. Lossiemouth, in making it eight Grade 1 wins in her career, started 5/1 on for the four-horse affair. The one surprise was that the nine-length runner-up, collecting €28k was not the second favourite and Mullins second string Irancy in the McManus colours, but Glen Kiln, a 28/1 shot trained by David Harry Kelly. Some turn for him!

Lossiemouth is around 3/1 for the Champion Hurdle but we’re waiting to see what Nicky Henderson and Constitution Hill will have to say about that in Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle on Saturday.

Mullins also won the beginners’ chase on the Punchestown card with odds-on Kitzbuhel, running for the first time since he put eight grand into the Mullins coffers for his third place on the final day of the season at Sandown last April. The way Dan Skelton’s going, though, I doubt there will be as much in it at the finish this time around between the respective powerhouses of the UK and Ireland – or even that the result will be the same way around.

- TS

An Irish National Hunt Trainers Analysis

/in /by

An exploration of Irish National Hunt trainers using the Geegeez Query Tool

Gold members of Geegeez have so many benefits and for the first part of this article I am going to discuss how I used one of these, the Query Tool, to obtain a wealth of trainer data, writes Dave Renham. The second part of the piece will crunch some of those numbers.

My focus was Irish racing and hence Irish trainers in National Hunt races. Data has been taken from 1st January 2018 to 30th September 2025 with profits and losses calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) with a 2% commission applied on any winning bets.

 

Setting Up With Query Tool

So, the starting point for using the Query Tool was straightforward: by inputting the date range, then going to the RACE menu where, on the Country tab, I ticked ‘Ire’ and then, going to the Race Code tab, I ticked all of the NH code boxes. The screenshot below shows the filters used:

 

 

So, this gave me all the Irish data I was looking for so – over 11,000 races as can be seen from the 'Wins' column:

 

 

 

Next I went to the RUNNER menu and then clicked on the ‘Trainer’ radio button, which groups the criteria by the selected variable (in this case, trainer), and then I clicked 'Generate Report'. This gave me the records for every single Irish trainer who had had a runner during the period of study. The first few trainers in alphabetical order are shown below:

 

 

From here I wanted to focus only on the trainers who sent out the most runners in order to have big enough sample sizes to drill down into other areas. I ordered the trainers by runs in the Query Tool and decided on 800 runs or more as my cut off point. This gave me 29 trainers to review. By ticking the ‘+’ sign to the left of each of these 29 trainers' names (and, when doing this, the plus sign became a minus sign meaning the trainer had been selected), I added them to my shortlist. Once all were ticked, I generated a new report with only these 29 trainers shown:

 

 

I then went back to the SUMMARY tab (top of the main part of the page) and used the 'COPY' button to paste all of the trainer data into a Microsoft Excel file I had already opened. With the 29 trainers logged in the Query Tool, I then went about generating numerous reports by changing the Query Tool variables or options. Once generated, new reports were pasted into a worksheet and I added an additional column with the specific variable for that report. I created 30 different reports, all copied across to my Excel worksheet. This took no more than 20 minutes tops, and I now had all the data I needed to analyse and number crunch.

 

Irish NH Trainers, by Win Strike Rate

The rest of this article will take a more familiar format for regular readers, although I may discuss some Excel methods I used along the way, in case you want to do some digging for yourself!

First things first, let me share the results for each of the 29 trainers over the timeframe (trainers ordered by win strike rate):

 

 

One immediate point to share is that Irish racing has had bigger average field sizes when compared to the UK in recent years, and that helps to explain why the trainer strike rates are generally lower than we are be used to seeing when looking at UK trainer data. The maestro that is Willie Mullins was head and shoulders above the rest in terms of win strike rate having hit a touch more than one win in every four. His runners, if backed ‘blind’, made a very small profit to BSP. The second and third listed trainers, Henry de Bromhead and Joseph O’Brien, were also profitable to BSP. A handful of other trainers made a profit to BSP, but all of these had at least one massive BSP priced winner to skew their bottom line somewhat.

 

Irish NH Trainers, by 'Favourite' performance

One advantage of copying the 30 different reports into Excel meant I could create a Pivot Table to easily compare the data sets and see if there were any significant patterns or angles that were worth sharing. Pivot tables are an extremely useful way to number crunch data in Excel. For those interested in finding out more about them there are plenty of easy to follow YouTube videos around.

I started off by analysing some betting market stats beginning with trainer data for favourites. In order to have a big enough sample, I decided that a trainer must have saddled at least 100 or more favourites during the period of study. I wanted to start by comparing their overall win strike rate for 'All favs' with their strike rates for market leaders specifically in chases or hurdle races. The sample size for NH Flat favourites was too small for most trainers, so I have opted not to show that. The splits were thus:

 

 

Don’t be too put off by the huge variance in strike rates between, say, Mullins and Rothwell, because 88% of market leaders for Mullins were in non-handicaps, and 84% of Rothwell’s were in handicaps. Non-handicap favourites start at much shorter prices on average than handicap jollies, so Mullins was always going to have a much higher strike rate when comparing the two of them. Talking of handicaps and non-handicaps it makes sense for me to share and compare their win strike rates to help illustrate my previous point:

 

 

Most trainers conformed to the pattern of much better win rates in non-handicaps, although a few did buck this trend. Declan Queally, for example, had virtually the same strike rate in both race types and when we analyse his results in full, we see the following:

 

 

Favourites in handicaps produced excellent returns for Queally and anyone following his market leaders in these contests would have been counting their money. Philip Rothwell has fared far better in handicaps than non-handicaps with favourites, but the vast majority of his market leaders were in handicaps (only 18 in non-handicaps).

It's time to narrow down the research a little by looking at a handful of the most successful trainers.

 

Irish NH Trainers: Specific Handlers

Willie Mullins

I called him the ‘maestro’ earlier and he has been in a different league to his peer group in recent years. Clearly, he has the backing of some huge owners and gets many of the best horses, but one still needs to deliver. I have shared some of his market leader stats already, and below is a graph sharing his ROI percentages (BSP) in more specific race types – handicap chases, handicap hurdles, non-handicap chases, non-handicap hurdles and NH Flat races.

 

 

As can be seen, Mullins produced excellent returns when saddling the favourite in non-handicap chases. The full stats read 316 wins from 536 (SR 59%) for a profit of £116.47 (ROI +21.7%). He also showed a blind profit with market leaders in non-handicap hurdle races thanks to 540 wins from 1028 runners (SR 52.5%) for a profit of £75.68 (ROI +7.5%). He was less successful in handicaps, making a loss in both chase and hurdle race types. His worst record with favourites was in NH Flat races where losses were close to 9 pence in the £.

Switching to all runners rather than just favourites, Mullins had some powerful stats during the period of study when we analyse the run style of his runners in chase contests. Regular readers of my articles will know that chases tend to offer front runners a solid edge over all other run styles. Mullins conformed to this pattern in such races going back to the start of 2018 as the graph below, which shows his win strike rate across the different run styles, highlights:

 

 

Mullins’ horses that have taken the lead at the start of their chase races went onto win nearly 45% of their races. If we had known pre-race which of his horses would front run and backed them accordingly, we would have been in profit to the tune of £185.78 (ROI +36.1%). Compare this to the potential returns of midfield and held up runners, which would have lost 18p and 30p in the £ respectively.

Moving on to the very best contests, Class 1 events. Here, Mullins produced a blind profit and, considering he had 2536 runners in them, this was an impressive performance, even more so considering every Irish (and British) punter knows what this trainer has achieved. His record in Grade 3 races produced the best results: 117 wins from 457 (SR 25.6%) for a profit of £74.58 (ROI +16.3%).

Henry de Bromhead

Henry de Bromhead had some amazing wins in the UK during this timeframe, especially at the Cheltenham Festival, but here I will drill into his Irish record in more detail. His overall record showed a blind profit equating to over 6p in the £ and his yearly splits are shown in the graph below:

 

 

2021 was a poor year from a returns’ perspective, and 2020 showed a small loss, but the other six years all returned a profit. Hence, de Bromhead has been extremely consistent over this timeframe.

Like Mullins, de Bromhead has some interesting stats connected with run style but his most interesting numbers have been in hurdle races. His win strike rate splits have been as follows:

 

 

Horses that have led early have been the most successful by far and, if our crystal ball had been in tip top working order, backing these runners pre-race would have yielded a very healthy return of nearly 70p in the £.

From a personal perspective it will be sad that we will not see the iconic Rachael Blackmore riding for him in the future. They have been one of the best trainer/jockey combos of recent years and gave racing fans some great memories.

Gordon Elliott

For Gordon Elliott I would like to share his record with favourites in NH Flat races. Each year Elliott has had numerous runners in NH Flat races of which roughly 28% of them have started favourite. His record with these market leaders was as follows:

 

 

For favourites to return over 30p in the £ across a good number of bets is rare, so Elliott has performed well above the norm with this cohort of runners.

Elliott is another trainer who produced some very interesting run style stats during this time period. The stats for hurdle races were as follows:

 

 

As we know, the run style each Elliott horse employed was only known after the start of its race. Hence, the profit figures for leaders and prominent runners were not something we could have achieved in reality. However, what it does show once again is that for the majority of races the importance of being up with the pace rather than off the pace.

Geegeez Gold members interested in run style research can investigate further by using the Pace Analyser if wishing to dig into specific courses and/or distances. The example screenshot below shows some Carlisle data:

 

 

Parameters of race code, course, distance, going, number of runners, handicap/non-handicap and time frame can all be tweaked. Also we can check out both Irish and UK courses.

Members can also use the Query Tool for run style research like I have done for this article exploring other areas such as trainers, jockeys, etc.

Joseph O’Brien

Jospeh O’Brien, like Gordon Elliott, has produced positive stats when it comes to NH Flat races. The table below shows his overall record in these races, his record with favourites, and his record with horses that were in the top three of the betting:

 

 

O’Brien has clearly excelled in these races, and it will be interesting to see what happens over the coming season.

Like the other trainers discussed, O’Brien has worthwhile run style stats to share. Below is a graph showing the win percentages for each run style group in both chases and hurdle races:

 

 

Once again, we see front runners from his stable had a huge edge over prominent racers who in turn had a significant edge over horses that were held up or raced in midfield.

 

**

 

I hope this article has served two purposes. Firstly, I wanted to show that research can be undertaken very quickly to generate useful stats and across a variety of areas; and secondly, I have shared some data relating to the highest volume Irish trainers which we should be able to use to our advantage this coming winter and beyond.

Finally, I hope some members will be tempted to use the content here to inspire your own research using Query Tool, Pace Analyser and the other tools in the Geegeez Swiss Army Knife.

Until next time...

- DR

 

Monday Musings: Divided

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There are different opinions as to whether it was Oscar Wilde or George Bernard Shaw who suggested England and America were two nations divided by a common language, writes Tony Stafford. Once again over 14 races at the Breeders’ Cup in Del Mar, California, horse racing was the common theme, but American dirt is as foreign to European trainers as their own turf seems to be to the Americans.

All weekend, European horses mopped up where they ought to have done but among the stream of fantastic performances in either discipline, I have to nominate Willie Mullins and his extraordinary achievement in winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf with Ethical Diamond.

I never stop hearing from my friend Maurice Manasseh that his son David, who owns half of the top hurdler Ballyburn, swears by anything Willie Mullins tells him. Indeed, if he’d phoned that morning to say he’d walked across the Irish Sea rather than catch a plane to come to Cheltenham, he probably would have believed that too.

I’m sure that the Heffernan family, two of whose members that own Ethical Diamond would also believe that and anything else you told them about Ireland’s greatest jump trainer. His achievements even outdo those of Vincent O’Brien for the few years the great man and former incumbent at Ballydoyle bothered with the winter game.

In May 2022 at Arqana sales, Mullins and his talent spotter Harold Kirk paid €260k for the 11-times-raced Absurde from the stable of Carlos Laffon-Parias on behalf of the same Heffernan-based syndicate that was to own Ethical Diamond.

Within three months the then five-year-old had easily won a novice hurdle then was second to his star stable-companion Vauban in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot. Unplaced then at the Galway Festival in a novice hurdle, he beat the high-class stayer Sweet William for the Ebor Handicap and its £300k prize at York.

The following year, 14 months after the other inspired purchase, the magical duo shelled out 320,000gns at Tattersalls July sale for the three-year-old Ethical Diamond a couple of weeks after he had broken his maiden at the third attempt for trainer Michael Wiliam O’Meara.

It took a little longer for him to match the achievement of Absurde, indeed he finished 51 lengths adrift of stable companion Majborough in the 2024 Triumph Hurdle on his third attempt in juvenile hurdles for Mullins. Yet after one run back on the flat, he was backed down to 7/4 for a handicap at Royal Ascot.

He didn’t win that day under Ryan Moore, but he put that to rights again under Ryan at 3/1 this June, and I remember David (and Maurice) telling anyone who would listen that “he’s a certainty”. Ryan was committed to riding a Coolmore horse in the Ebor, so William Buick stepped in and Ethical Diamond gave him an armchair ride in achieving that eye-watering double within two years for trainer and owners.

Moore, no doubt still bemoaning his luck at missing all the rides for Coolmore at the meeting – one winner from the top-class juvenile Gstaad was their return – will probably have been amazed by the performance of his former partner. The same will have gone for William Buick, especially as when he and Rebel’s Romance shot clear in the straight in the attempt to win the Turf race for the third time, it was the horse he’d ridden in the Ebor only a couple of months earlier that denied him.

I mentioned earlier the two nations that are divided by a common language. The otherwise well clued-up main US television experts dismissed the Ebor as “not even a Stakes race”. No boys, it’s just the most valuable handicap in Europe. Also, Jessica Harrington, one of whose former inmates is now being trained in the US, might not have been delighted to learn it “had been trained in England”.

While he has made a habit of winning flat-race races like the Cesarewitch and Ascot Stakes along with the Queen Alexandra Stakes, also at Ascot, Willie is still regarded as a jumps trainer per se. Not now though and I’m sure that while many UK trainers admired his achievement on Saturday, with his first runner at a Breeders’ Cup at the age of 69, they will be dreading his name appearing in many more of our valuable handicaps from now on.

The 28/1 winner was ridden with great confidence, coming from the widest draw of all by Dylan Browne McMonagle, the newly crowned, youthful and very articulate Irish champion jockey, who has been a mainstay of Joseph O’Brien’s team for a few years now.

Meanwhile Mullins and the two Heffernan boys were quickly out to San Diego airport to fly to Australia where Absurde runs in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. There’s no reason why the £2.2million prize there should be beyond this versatile performer who has a County Hurdle win at Cheltenham on his dance card.

Kerrin McEvoy, who spent time with Godolphin in the UK, comfortably manages his 8st6lb weight. Vauban, now with Gai Waterhouse and her training partner Adrian Bott, is also in the 24-runner field in the race that stops the nation.

I thought the win of Forever Young for his Japanese connections in the $7 million Classic was tremendous, not just for the result but the fact that the same three horses filled the first three places as they did a year ago.

Then, Forever Young had finished third behind fellow three-year-olds Sierra Leone and Fierceness. Here he overtook Fierceness coming to the last furlong and held off the strong and expected late finish from Sierra Leone. As he had also been only narrowly denied by Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone (nose and the same) in the Kentucky Derby on his earlier US sortie, this was due reward for trainer Yoshito Yahagi, who in 2021 had given Japan two other Breeders’ Cup wins on the same Del Mar track.

The alteration to the programme which has brought the Classic from its place as the climax of the card to having three more races to follow isn’t to everyone’s taste. The last of them, the Filly and Mare Turf, went to the pin up boys of French racing, Francis-Henri Graffard and Mickael Barzalona.

They had teamed up to win the Arc last month with Daryz and the Champion Stakes at Ascot two weekends ago with Calandagan. Now they struck again here with the filly Gezora, winner of the French Oaks in the summer but unplaced in unfavourably soft ground and from a very difficult draw when partnered by Tom Marquand in the Arc. She had been the morning line favourite on Saturday but drifted alarmingly in the market on the race, starting at a rewarding 9/1 as she ran down She Feels Pretty in the last half-furlong, winning by half a length.

She Feels Pretty will travel straight across to Kentucky where she will be offered for sale. Having already collected more than £2 million from eight wins and three second places in only 13 runs, She Feels Pretty will be on most of the big players’ sights.

It was good to see a smart ride by William Buick and a brilliant tactical plan by Charlie Appleby pay off with an easy, drawing-away win for 2024 2,000 Guineas victor Notable Speech in the Mile turf race. He was unluckily beaten a neck behind Diego Velazquez in the Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville in the summer.

Sam Sangster and the National Stud where Sangster’s shrewd acquisition will stand as a stallion next year will be delighted to advertise him as having beaten Classic winner Notable Speech in a Group 1 race. Sam won’t be bothered at all that had William Buick got him out of a tangle a couple of strides earlier, that crucial Group 1 win probably would not have happened.

- TS

Ethical Diamond sparkles with decisive Ebor strike

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Ethical Diamond provided all-conquering trainer Willie Mullins with a third victory in the Sky Bet Ebor at York.

Although better known for his exploits under National Hunt rules, the Closutton handler had previously landed Britain’s richest Flat handicap with Sesenta in 2009 and Absurde in 2023 and fired a three-pronged assault at this year’s renewal.

Ethical Diamond, who was last seen striking Royal Ascot gold in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, was a well backed 5-1 favourite for the £500,000 feature under William Buick, who appeared keen to play his cards as late as possible aboard a horse who has been known to race enthusiastically.

But after again travelling powerfully in the middle of the pack as the field turned for home, the five-year-old got a dream run against the stands’ rail when being delivered with his challenge and picked up well to run out an emphatic two-and-a-half-length winner over Ascending, with Queenstown in third.

Mullins said: “William said he was a copybook ride. He popped off, settled and did everything he wanted him to do.

“He said once he let him go, he quickened up well.

“He won’t go to (the) Melbourne (Cup) as he won’t pass the vets down there in Australia, so we wiped that off straight away. He’s got a screw in his leg from an old injury and that is a straight no-no from them.

“That’s fine, those are the rules and at least we know now and not when they let us get all the way down there.

“I don’t know if he’s an Irish Cesarewitch horse or we let him run in an Irish Leger, we’ll have to see but I’d definitely like to move him up in grade to a Group Two or a Group Three at some stage.”

William Buick celebrates winning the Sky Bet Ebor on Ethical Diamond
William Buick celebrates winning the Sky Bet Ebor on Ethical Diamond (Richard Sellers/PA)

He went on: “We’ve just been trying to find the right tactics that suit him but it’s taken me 18 months to do that and now he’s won at Royal Ascot and the Ebor.

“Now that we have a way to ride him, he’d probably win a nice race over hurdles, I think tactics have been the making of him.”

Of landing a major summer prize, Mullins added: “Winning races on the Flat like this gives me exactly the same buzz as winning big races over jumps, for sure. To come here and win races like this, it’s why you do the game.”

Buick said: “He won the Duke of Edinburgh so well and any time Willie asks you to ride a horse, you’re grateful for the call-up – they don’t come over for the fun of it.

“I had a good trip from a wide draw. We were never going to fight to get in or do anything spectacular, we accepted it. Willie just said stay out there and let him get in his rhythm and if you get a tail to follow then great.

“I was comfortable throughout the whole race really and he’s got that killer turn of foot which set him apart from the others today.”

It was a one-two-three for Ireland with Henry de Bromhead training the runner-up Ascending and Aidan O’Brien saddling third-placed Queenstown.

De Bromhead said of his runner: “I’d say he just lacked a bit of speed late on, I thought he’d quicken a bit better.

“Seamie gave him a super ride and I thought we were going better than anything but the other lad quickened past him.

“He gave me my first Ascot winner, we’re delighted to be here, we’ve had a really good day and he’s ran an absolute belter.”

Hipop De Loire one of three Ebor chances for Willie Mullins

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Hipop De Loire, Ethical Diamond and Charlus give the all-conquering Willie Mullins a formidable hand in his bid for a third victory in the Sky Bet Ebor at York on Saturday.

The Closutton maestro saddled the mare Sesenta to score in 2009, while high-class dual-purpose performer Absurde also landed Britain’s richest handicap two years ago.

Hipop De Loire (Colin Keane) heads the market, having suffered trouble in running on his way to finishing fifth 12 months ago. He warmed up for his second attempt with a dominant victory over hurdles at Galway.

Patrick Mullins, assistant to his father, said: “Hipop looked very unlucky last year and we’ve planned to get him back here in one piece and in good form.

“He had a good confidence booster in Galway, obviously he’s got plenty of weight (9st 10lb), but it looks like he has everything – he just needs to get the rub of the green he didn’t get last year.”

Ethical Diamond (William Buick) won the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, but does have to contend with an 8lb rise for that emphatic victory, while Charlus (Jamie Spencer) disappointed as a leading fancy for the Copper Horse Stakes at the Royal meeting and was well-held in third in a Galway conditions event.

Ethical Diamond winning the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot
Ethical Diamond winning the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot (David Davies/PA)

Mullins added: “Ethical Diamond is stepping up a little bit in trip, but the whole thing with him is just getting him to settle.

“He’s drawn wide (stall 21) and William will probably have to get him settled and ride a race after that, I’d imagine.

“Charlus had a bad draw in Ascot and ran too keen. We might change tactics with him and we definitely haven’t seen the best of him, but it is going to be a big ask.”

There are plenty of other major contenders from Ireland including Aidan O’Brien’s pair of London City and Queenstown, Joseph O’Brien’s Mr Percy and the Henry de Bromhead-trained Ascending, who has won his last three Flat starts including the Ascot Stakes on his most recent appearance.

French Master after winning the Copper Horse Stakes
French Master after winning the Copper Horse Stakes (John Walton/PA)

The home team is headed by John and Thady Gosden’s French Master, winner of the Copper Horse for the Wathnan Racing team before coming up short in the Goodwood Cup.

Connections are hoping the application of a visor might help raise his game on his return to handicap company, with Wathnan’s racing manager Richard Brown saying: “He’s got a wide draw (stall 22), which I think in a funny way might actually suit him.

“James (Doyle) is unfortunately off, but Rab (Robert Havlin) knows him well and I’m sure he will be able to take his time from that draw back down into a handicap after running in the Group One at Goodwood.

“It was a very big performance when he won at Royal Ascot and big enough that John and Thady were happy to jump him straight up to Group One company. It’s slightly calmer waters, but it’s obviously a hugely competitive race and we’ll need a lot of luck.

“He’s a classy horse though, and we’re still hoping at some stage he will turn into a stakes performer.”

At bigger odds Brian Ellison is hoping for a positive showing from his stable star Onesmoothoperator, who was fourth behind Al Qareem in the Silver Cup at York last month.

Ellison said: “He worked on Tuesday and it was probably as good a piece of work he has done in a while, so hopefully he is peaking just right.

“This has always been the plan after going to Dubai, to give him a couple of runs and come here and he seems to be in great fettle.

“It’s always a hard race, but we’re hopeful.”

Willie Mullins says Thurles closure ‘a huge blow’ for Irish racing

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Willie Mullins has described the shock closure of Thurles racecourse as a “huge blow for Irish racing”.

The champion trainer has saddled more than 250 winners at the County Tipperary circuit, where the first ever recorded race meeting took place in 1732.

Thurles, Ireland’s only privately-owned racehorse, has been in the hands of the Molony family since the early 1900s, but in a statement released on Friday morning, Riona Molony confirmed the track is to close with immediate effect.

Mullins told the PA news agency: “It was a major shock this morning to hear the news. It will be a huge blow for Irish racing, more specifically Irish jump racing and winter jump racing.

“Thurles is a track that always had beautiful ground in the winter when other tracks couldn’t.

“It’s the last family-run track in Ireland, I believe. Pierce Molony ran it for years, his father ran it before him and Riona and family have run it since Pierce died and they’ve been fantastic for the Irish jump fraternity over the years.”

The late Pierce Molony took over the running of Thurles from his father Dr Paddy Molony in 1974, with his widow Riona and family leading operations since his death in 2015.

In a statement, Riona Molony said: “It has been an honour and a privilege for our family to have run Thurles Racecourse, and I am officially announcing our retirement today.

“We are very proud of the immense contribution our family has made to racing and we are most grateful to our extended racecourse family, our dedicated staff, generous sponsors, loyal patrons and the wider racing community for all your support.

“Horse racing is part of the fabric of our family, and we have been very fortunate to have made so many great friends within the industry over the years. My family and I look forward to going racing with you again, as spectators.

“Since my beloved husband Pierce passed away in 2015, with the help of our four daughters Patricia, Helen, Ann Marie and Kate and our wonderful staff, we’ve managed to keep the show on the road and I know he would be very proud of us for that.

“The girls all have their own families, careers and lives to live. Ever increasing industry demands and the cost of doing business has also been a major factor.

“We’re going to enjoy this time together and relax now the decision is made and the news is out before we consider our options.”

Although Thurles is licensed to race until December 31 and is scheduled to stage 11 fixtures in the 2025/26 Irish racing calendar, the Molony family have no plans to continue.

However, Mullins has not given up hope of racing again taking place at the track, adding: “I think we’ll be doing our best to see if there’s any way we can save the track for racing in Ireland.

“It will need a lot of local support. However, on the bigger scale, Irish winter jump racing needs it too I think.”

Thurles stages a number of high-profile races including the Horse and Jockey Hotel Chase, formerly known as the Kinloch Brae.

The Grade Two contest has an illustrious roll of honour, having been won by the likes of Native Upmanship, Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Newmill, Cheltenham Gold Cup heroes Don Cossack and Sizing John and the top-class Allaho, who won two Ryanair Chases, a John Durkan Memorial Chase and a Punchestown Gold Cup for Mullins.

Suzanne Eade, CEO of Horse Racing Ireland, said in a statement: “Thurles Racecourse has been a cornerstone of the National Hunt programme in Ireland during the winter months, and today’s news was a surprise to everyone in the industry.

“I am sure this announcement was a hugely difficult one for Riona Molony, and her daughters Patricia, Helen, Ann Marie and Kate, and I respect their decision to take a step back from running racing at Thurles.

“Riona’s husband Pierce contributed significantly to the Irish racing industry for many years and the Molony family, led by Riona, certainly stepped up following his untimely passing.

“I will be seeking a meeting with the Molony family in the near future to discuss their position.”