Double Dutch, 20th March 2015
Wow! Rosenbaum's gutsy win aside, I got Thursday spectacularly wrong.
I have high hopes for both picks at Chepstow, but was equally frustrated and disappointed at what I saw. It's A Long Road ran poorly and was pulled up well before the finish, whilst Eaton Rock fared little better, coming home a distant last of the seven finishers, some 38 lengths behind his nearest rival and the best part of 100 lengths behind the winner.
And it actually looked worse than that!
All of which meant that Rosenbaum's later victory was only for pride, but he ran well and should be commended for that, if nothing else, whilst our fourth runner of the day was as poor as the first two, finishing 9th of 12.
Thursday's results were as follows:
Eaton Rock : u/p at 7/1 (adv 6/1)
It's A Long Road : PU at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Rosenbaum : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
That Man of Mine : u/p at 11/4 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
521 winning selections from 1822 = 28.59%
163 winning bets in 472 days = 34.53%
P/L : +115.67pts (+12.26% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After a difficult few days, winners from these would be nice...
Light The City is in great form at present and could be difficult to stop/beat. A winner over hurdles two starts ag and a winner of a chase here at Sedgefield just 10 days ago puts him in contention for a cross code hat-trick today. He jumps well, stays well, like the track and conditions and his six wins on the flat will ensure he's not outpaced either.
All told, Light The City is 3 from 6 here at Sedgefield and 2/4 over course and distance in hurdles contests and a quick look at his career stats suggest this is the best time year to catch him and he prefers small fields on soft ground. Tick, tick, tick and he's 11/4 BOG if you fancy him to beat...
...Mad For Road, who was also a winner last time out, finally getting off the mark after a string of near misses. That win was also over this course and distance and whilst an overall hurdles record of 1/16 isn't confidence-inspiring, he's clearly in the best form of his life so far and that probably explains why he's back out within 19 days of that debut win.
Mind you, he did win well that day, heading Beyondtemptation at the last before opening up a four length lead on the run-in. The runner-up has already turned out again, winning herself by six lengths at Hexham last Thursday. If the form holds out and the bookie of Dougie Costello is as significant as I think it might be, then Mad For Road could follow up at 9/4 BOG.
Friday wouldn't be Friday without some A/W action and this race looks like one we can capitalise from, if things fall in place. It's a non-handicap where all runners carry 9-5, suggesting that those rated highest could be seen as being thrown in and it's no surprise to see that the market is headed by runners rated 79 & 75, with the others on 70, 68 & 61.
Windward Passage is making his A/W debut, but he'll have been schooled on an artificial surface enough before coming here and being by Dubawi should handle this well enough. He's in decent nick, having two wins and a place from his last five starts and is proven at this trip.
Poitin, on the other hand, has raced here in both her starts in Ireland since coming over from England. She was fourth over 1m4f (beaten by less than 3 lengths) five weeks ago, before going on to win over the same trip by 2.5 lengths a fortnight later. She has also won over shorter trips in the past, so the drop back in distance shouldn't be an issue.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Mad For Road / Poitin @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Mad For Road / Windward Passage @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Light The City / Poitin @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Light The City / Windward Passage @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor)