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Stat of the Day, 25th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2014

Chris' parting shot before taking a weekend away was to nominate a 17/2 piledriver. Pearl Castle hacked up in a good race on Friday, and the half point each way call was a prudent one with such strength in depth. Of course, if we'd known then what we know now, it'd have been an all in play, but that's the beauty of hindsight!

It's Chelters for Saturday's selection, and the...

1.50 Cheltenham:

A hyper-competitive handicap chase is arguably a curious place to weigh the SotD anchor, especially one in which I'm rolling with an eleven year old carrying top weight on ground that the trainer feels is less than ideal. But hear me out, if you will...

Wishfull Thinking may be eleven, but he remains in fine fettle, as a game second to the precocious Unioniste at Aintree last time out demonstrated. He won this race back in 2011, so there are no concerns on course, distance or class scores.

As for that going niggle, well he's actually four from six on soft ground, so I'd have to take minor issue with Mr Hobbs, his trainer. In point of fact, Hobbs is in excellent form currently, with a 38% strike rate in the last fortnight (11 winners from 29 runners).

A mark of 156 for a horse that won a Grade 2 as recently as last February is fair, if not lenient, and I'm expecting him to run well under the big weight, something he's done many times before.

BetVictor offer 13/2 and that looks good to me, all in to win, but please feel free to...

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Sat TV Trends – 3rd Dec 2011

Will Nicholls Make It Nine Tingle Creeks?

Can Paul Nicholls land the Tingle Creek for a seventh year on the spin? See all the trends ahead of Saturday’s TV races......... Read more

Alleged Stakes 2011 Review

Unaccompanied has St Nicholas Abbey and the rest well beaten off

Unaccompanied has St Nicholas Abbey and the rest well beaten off

It was fantastic to be back in Dublin last weekend for the first time since I managed a team of developers over at Park Gates on the other side of Phoenix Park, for the geegeez.co.uk Alleged Stakes.

Not only was this my first (and possibly last) foray into race sponsorship, but the race was also blessed with one of the most talked about horses of recent years, St Nicholas Abbey. Champion juvenile after hosing up in the Racing Post Trophy of 2009, St Nicholas Abbey had just the one run last season when sent off the impossibly short even money favourite in the 2000 Guineas.

He ran well enough in sixth, beaten just three and a half lengths by Makfi. But of course he was expected to take the mantle of the amazing Sea The Stars as the greatest race horse for a generation. (That impossible burden is borne by Frankel this year - good luck to him!)

And then.... nothing. St Nicholas Abbey suffered a 'muscle problem' prior to the Derby which led to his being scratched from the race, and then a late attempt to get him back to the track before season end was again scuppered.

So it was to much anticipation that the Ballydoyle A-Lister made his seasonal debut, and he was sent off a red hot 4/11 chance to make it a triumphant opener. He was reportedly 80% fit for this and, as you'll see in the video below, he was blowing through his pipe after the contest. There's no doubt St Nich will come on a ton for this, if he runs again.

But he was up against a very nice sort in the mare who finished second in the Triumph Hurdle a couple of weeks ago, Unaccompanied. She is a beautiful beast, and I had the honour - and straightforward task - of awarding her 'best turned out'. This really was simple. She was head and shoulders the paddock pick to even my untutored eye (and my other, slightly more tutored eye!)

They went down, loaded up and came back in the heavy ground. Unaccompanied ran them ragged and was never in danger of being defeated. She paid 4/1 and will have offered little salvation to bookies who must have taken a caning on the day. St Nicholas Abbey was six and a half lengths back in third, with the unheralded Cillium running a PB to separate them.

After the race, the difference between the winner and the third - in terms of their demeanour and how much they were feeling the prior exertion - was as strong a contrast as you'll see. If you're ever at the races and want to know which horse will improve most from this run to their next, take a look at the example below. Poor St Nich looked like me after I finished in the gym this morning (although I'm not expecting to come on very much for the run!)

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Then there was the presentation, and my moment of fame, such as it was. The lady who shared the podium with me was the very lovely Eva Maria Haeftner, head of Moyglare Stud, and heiress to a billion dollar fortune. It's not every day one gets to kiss a billionaire three times! 😉

Incidentally, in an excellent piece by the excellent Nick Mordin, he alluded to Aiden O'Brien's woeful record with seasonal debutantes in big races. Specifically, O'Brien has won with just one of his thirty pattern race runners that he's brought back off a break longer than seven months in March or April over the last fifteen years. That sole winner was in a five runner Listed race by a head.

Moreover, it's Mordin's contention that St Nicholas Abbey was 'tying up', which apparently is akin to getting a stitch only more pronounced. Mordin questions whether St Nich will ever get back to top form again. Personally, whilst I can see the argument, and despite my statements in support in the video (where I question whether St Nich will be retired now), I suspect he will come back a fitter, sharper horse next time.

But I'd be loathe to pile on in a Group 1 or 2 race for now.

The day concluded with me finally breaking a run of bad luck that has stretched out over four weeks, with a decent bet on Samain in the bumper series final, and a more decent bet on Torphichen in the concluding handicap, both of whom won as they wished.

It was a cracking day at the Curragh, and we were very well looked after by Evan, Trish and Collette, so my thanks to them. Whether I'll be able to get the geegeez.co.uk name back up in lights next year remains to be seen. Sponsorship is not cheap, and early indications are that it wasn't hugely effective. Nevertheless, it was great fun and I feel truly lucky and privileged to have been able to represent our little website community on such a grand stage.

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Just a couple of quick lines to close today. Firstly, I need your applications by midday tomorrow (Thursday) if you want to be considered for what I'm calling my PEER3 business training.

To remind you, I'm looking to work with a very small group of people who already have a business that is making sales, with the objective of taking things to the next level. If that's not (yet) you, then please hold fire this time, as I might have something more appropriate in the near future.

If that might be you, then do please take a look at the video over at mattbisogno.com and fill out the short no obligation form beneath if you're interested.

Last shout is midday tomorrow if you'd like your business to be considered.

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Finally, you'll be aware that the Aintree Festival starts tomorrow. It normally feels a little bit like 'after the Lord Mayor's show', but this time around we're kicked straight into life with Big Buck's vs Grands Crus, followed by the Triumph Hurdle first vs third, then the Denman show, and finally Wishfull Thinking vs Medermit.

It really is a top, top class first day's racing from Aintree, and I'll have much more news and views on the meeting tomorrow. I'll be heading to the track on Friday for Ladies Day (which I'm very much looking forward to - haven't been to Aintree since Rough Quest won way back in 1996, when I was a poor student), but will get my posting out before I go, and be back in good time for some Saturday opinion as well, in case you have access to your computer on weekends.

That's all for now - I'm off to study the form for Aintree!

Matt

p.s. who do you like in the big races tomorrow, and of course, THE big race on Saturday? Leave a comment and let us all know where we should put our money. 🙂

Carnivals and Festivals: Weekend Review

Quarter Horses are fast!

Quarter Horses are fast!

Horse racing is a sport enjoyed across the length and breadth of the globe, dear reader, and it manifests itself in a multitude of different guises. From the bottomless slog of a four mile chase at Towcester, via two furlong 'quarter horse' dirt races at greyhound tracks masquerading as horse racing tracks in the US, to the slick monied - slightly surreal - racing of Meydan's tapeta track in Dubai, there really is something for everyone in racing.

Last weekend saw countless clues for both the Carnival and the Festival: Dubai's culminating World Cup meeting on March 26th, and Cheltenham four day National Hunt season highlight running from March 15th to 18th.

First, roving reporter Ross relates the latest Godolphin / de Kock domination in the Emirates, then I'll expound on my views of the virtues (or otherwise) of this weekend's Festival trials from Britain and Ireland. Over to Ross, and a somewhat unpatriotic rallying cry (unless you happen to be Gallic)...

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Vive la France! Forgive me, as patriotic as this website is (it is geegeez.co.UK after all), I have never been so pleased to see the French show up just at the right time (makes a change).

After last week’s dominance of the Dubai Carnival’s second meeting by Godolphin and Mike de Kock - 5 winners, 3 seconds and 7 thirds between them - it looked like things were going to go the same way this Thursday after the boys in blue claimed the first race with City Style and then had a 1-2-3 in races three and four.

Although a great achievement for Sheikh Mohammed and his team, this kind of dominance does become tedious to watch. It’s not as though we can profit from their success either as their apparent third string runner is often as likely to win as the horse Frankie Dettori chooses.

We did get a slight respite from the navy blue marauders as the French-trained Win For Sure lived up to his name and sailed home to land the concluding handicap under Gregory Benoist. The trainer's name is fairly unpronounceable, but is spelt like this: Nakkachdji. Very nice too.

Bronze Cannon wins in Meydan

Bronze Cannon wins in Meydan

Earlier in the evening, Bronze Cannon scored a cosy victory in what looked a competitive conditions race. I can boast a small connection to this bay colt. As you may know, Brighton handler Gary Moore does occasionally train some runners for Bronze Cannon’s owner, Ramzan Kadyrov, to get them ready before they are transferred to Herman Brown’s Dubai yard and so it happened that Bronze Cannon followed this same path in 2010 whilst I was working for Gary.

The horse had won at Royal Ascot for John Gosden before being bought for a reported £1.3m by his current owner. I was lucky enough to ride him most days on the Downs in Brighton and I struggled to believe that this was the Bronze Cannon that I'd been sitting on. After all, he was absolutely tiny, no bigger than a pony.

To add to this, he moved like a cripple and cantered as though he needed three miles and a good load of fences in front of him! Admittedly he wasn't doing any serious work when I was with him but it just goes to show you that some horses come alive at the races and you shouldn’t believe everything you see on the gallops at home.

Regular readers will remember that I gave a good word for Luca Cumani’s Drunken Sailor last time and I almost got it right for once as he ran a blinder to finish 4th behind Whispering Gallery in the 1m6f handicap. He has obviously acclimatised well and is worth backing next time. I also mentioned the yard’s puzzlement surrounding Man of Iron’s poor runs and it seems it all came to a head this Thursday as he was pulled-up entering the straight but reports suggest that there was no serious injury to him. He’s one to steer well clear of though.

Cumani did receive some consolation when the enigmatic Presvis romped home in the Group 2 Al Rashidiya Stakes. I’m sure we all know this horse from losing plenty of money on him in the past but on his day, like this time, he is a talented animal. It remains to be seen whether he can put two good efforts together next time.

On another note, what attracts many owners, trainers and jockeys to Meydan is the apparently generous prize money. It’s all well and good promising people decent purses but reports have reached me that payments are very slow in coming and last season (which ended in March) some jockeys didn’t receive their riding fees and percentages until August. Let’s hope this wasn’t the same for the owners - if you upset them, they likely won’t be coming back in a hurry!

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To the weekend past, and altogethrer soggier, muddier and more robust racing types. And that's just the racegoers. Friday's Doncaster card had little in the ways of future clues except, perhaps, that the track was unlikely to survive for Saturday's feature meeting.

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In winning the juvenile novice hurdle, Empire Levant put the final nail in the coffin of the Franklino ante-post punt, seeing that one off by a wide margin. The bookies were singularly unimpressed with the 2.5 lengths winning verdict over Palawi, from John Quinn's yard, and still have him as a 33/1 shot.

For me, Sam Winner looks the best value in that race. Despite being beaten in a real slog at Chepstow last time, the overall balance of his form is as good as anything in here at the moment, and the remaining 12's in a few places might be worth small money.

Over at Gowran Park on Friday were some strong clues. Whilst Grands Crus may have bagged Saturday's headlines to take clear second place in the World Hurdle market (more on that in a moment), Mourad made a less well-publicised claim for the same race with an equally impressive victory over a field that included dual World Hurdle third, Powerstation.

Mourad is only a six year old, and he seems to be improving with age and racing. Third in last season's Punchestown World Hurdle, the 10/1 about this one is pretty fair. And the 5/1 without Big Buck's offered by Stan James and bet365 (1/4 1-2-3) looks an each way steal.

To Saturday's racing and most interest by far was at Cheltenham's Trials Day meeting. First up were the juvenile novices and my Third Intention aspirations were left pretty much as they were before the race.

Third Intention had been a 25/1 shot prior to proceedings and, in running two length second to Local Hero - the favourite here, he remains a 25/1 shot for the Triumph. The winner has truncated slightly, to 16's and 20's generally, but it's clear that the bookies a) are happy to take bets on any horse you want to back in this race, because b) they - and we - haven't a clue!

Moving on from the insoluble conundrum that is the current Triumph Hurdle picture, and The Giant Bolster put himself firmly in the picture for the RSA Chase - or maybe the Jewson - with an extremely game, if slightly error strewn, performance here. And herein lies the problem with ante-post betting in many of the races now.

With the Cheltenham Festival having moved to four days from three, there are now six more races. These races tend to be at intermediate distances (like the Ryanair Chase over 2m5f and the Jewson Novices' Chase over 2m4f), which means whether you fancy one in the speed races (i.e. Queen Mother Champion Chase or Arkle) or in the stayers' races (Gold Cup or RSA Chase), there's always a danger that your horse will be redirected to the intermediate (and often softer) race, thus doing the ante-post dough.

This is a problem that never used to exist, and as a number of my horses are near the top of the markets for these mid-distance races, I'm not happy. Of course, once I've recovered from my hissy fit, I'll acknowledge that it's my own fault and will make it a rule only to back horses ante-post where the race they're likely to run in is all but certain... (Trouble is, I'm far too indisciplined, and like the look of a big priced horse far too much, to ever do this!!!)

Moving on, Wishfull Thinking was a smooth and ultimately clear winner of the 2m5f novice chase, and his trainer, Philip Hobbs, seems to have improved the horse's jumping markedly. That being the case, he looks a strong contender for the Jewson Novices Chase. Or maybe the Centenary Novices Chase. Or perhaps the RSA Chase. Or... the Arkle? He's quoted in all four. How the hell are we supposed to take a view on these bloody nags?!

Assuming the ground is good to soft or better, I'd imagine he'll go for the Jewson, for which he's the 10/1 favourite. Those odds reflect more the uncertainty around which horses - including Wishfull Thinking - will run in the race. Indeed, it may very well be wishful thinking taking a price on this one for any of the novice events. Wait until plans are firmer - or you can get non-runner no bet - and take a shorter price on an insured wager.

My worst bet of the day - and for a very long time - came in the next race on Punchestowns. I figured that Nicky Henderson would have left a fair bit to work with, and he might get beaten here. But I decided he couldn't be out of the first two, bar a fall, and backed him for a place accordingly. I am an idiot, sometimes.

Tidal Bay looks a Tidy outsider for Gold Cup glory

Tidal Bay looks a Tidy outsider for Gold Cup glory

Neptune Collonges was allowed an easy lead in front, and relished it, jumping impeccably from fence to fence. He was never in any danger until Tidal Bay made his usual late challenge. Alas, it was too late and the 'Bay took silver medal honours. Punchestowns was beaten 30 lengths by the pair of them so I have no complaints.

40/1 about Tidal Bay is a decent each way bet for the Gold Cup, if you're ok with a) the fact that he might sulk and not perform and b) he might run in something else and c) he might not be good enough!

In fairness, those three imponderables can be leveled at pretty much all horseflesh two months before the races, so he'd be a more credible outsider than many.

As for Punchestowns, well I'm certain he's far better than that and, given the trainer's statements after that he'll not just have needed it but he wants to get another race into him between now and the Festival, all may not yet be lost. He's also 40's, but a stylish win in a race like the Aon Chase would see those odds halved. My suspicion is that Punchestowns may end up racing in some obscure Kelso affair (remember Zaynar's defeat there at odds of 1/14 (!!!!) last mid-February prior to a third place finish in the Champion Hurdle?).

Arguably the most competitive race of the day was the staying novice hurdle, so it was strange that Backspin was wagered to the virtual exclusion of all others. He ran probably his best race to date, but that was only good enough for fourth. The winner was another Henderson inmate, Bobs Worth, and - mindful of how many of Henderson's ran with something still to work on between now and Cup Final day - the manner of this one's victory was taking.

He is likely to take in the Neptune Novices over 2m5f at the Festival, so it's no surprise to see him installed the 5/1 favourite there. Not much value meat on those odds bones, but probably fair enough in the context of what's he's achieved and the relative certainty about which race he'll contest.

Rock On Ruby ran on resolutely to be the only danger at the last, and is 10's for the Neptune, but 14's for the Supreme. I didn't think he was stopping here, so would be surprised if he dropped back in trip to the mininum for the Supreme. But then, I'm often surprised at the actions of horses, jockeys and trainers! 😉

The 3.35 - Cleeve Hurdle - was easily the most eye-catching race, as Grands Crus continued his rapid ascent of the staying hurdler's ranks with a facile cantering win by ten lengths. Enough of the right horses finished in the right order behind him to believe this was a serious performance, and the race has been THE World Hurdle trial in recent seasons with Big Buck's and Inglis Drever using it as their springboard historically.

It has long been a contention of Nick Mordin, one of the best judges of race times / performances I know, that Big Buck's dominates a weak division. If that's the case, then the emergence of both Grands Crus and to a lesser extent Mourad, as well as potential improvers like Oscar Whisky, present serious threats to Big Buck's.

So much so, in fact, that there is a slight temptation to lay the favourite at odds on... actually, I'm not that brave, and I think there are better ways to play the race. I can certainly see Big Buck's being sent off around evens on the day though, which does offer a trading opportunity if you agree with that view.

Although I can't say why (you'll know if you are a Festival Trends member), Gavin from Nag Nag Nag will have been delighted with the result of the concluding handicap hurdle, as it sets his ante-post plunge up very nicely for the big target race at the Festival. Nice one, Gavin!

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Yesterday's Punchestown card lost some of its lustre when the opening PP Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase was abandoned. Historically the number one prep race for the Cross Country race at the Festival, this leaves a few key contenders - notably Sizing Australia and Garde Champetre - seeking a tune up event in the next few weeks. Expect to see them line up in modest staying hurdle affairs!

In the Grade 2 Tied Cottage Chase over two miles, there was a real turn up as Big Zeb was turned over by Golden Silver for the first time in five attempts. Again, the nature of the race is that I'd expect Big Zeb to easily confirm previous form if both went to Cheltenham and, in fact, the 7/2 about Zeb may be one of the best prices on any horse in any race at the Festival.

My abominable record in the race precludes me from piling in, but I will be taking a keen interest in the Zeb-edee in the Spring (geddit?!)

Hugely disappointing for me was Sizing Europe's moderate third here. It's unlikely he will run in the Champion Chase at the Festival, but the fact that he raced here implies connections are loathe to go as far as the Gold Cup either. So, the Ryanair may well be where this one lands, leaving my ante-post Gold Cup punt grounded.

Finally, in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle, the horse I was most interested to see - Byerley Bear - ran below par in fifth behind a Willie Mullins 1-2 of Gagewell Flyer and Earlson Grey. The front two pulled ten lengths clear of the rest, and added further ballast to the formidable Mullins team ahead of the Festival.

In fact, Willie had five of the six winners on the day! He may have his best ever Cheltenham Festival with established winning horses like Quevega supported by a cast of many in the novice events. Especially ask yourself Where's Willie in the handicap hurdles. Thousand Stars last year was a prime example, popping up at 20/1.

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So, the picture clears ever so slightly. Or did it getting a tad cloudier? Who can say for sure before the middle of March? Whichever way your views lie on the evidence of the last few days, the Carnivals and Festivals are barely beginning! 😀

Matt / Ross