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Racing Insights, 22nd October 2020

I highlighted Serenading as the pick of my four-runner shortlist for Wednesday's race with Dancing Feet in seciond. Serenading was withdrawn whilst the Watson/Doyle combo grabbed the win with Dancing Feet.

Thursday's free feature is the Instant Expert tab for all races, whilst the free racecards are for the following...

  • 12.35 Carlisle
  • 1.20 Navan
  • 2.15 Carlisle
  • 2.50 Carlisle
  • 3.40 Navan
  • 5.20 Navan

And with Instant Expert firmly in mind, I've decided to take a look at the 4.05 Wolverhampton : an 11-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta that's certainly worth winning at a prize of £11828.

We start with the racecard in Geegeez Speed rating order, where I've purposely hidden the odds, as I find they can have an unhealthy sway on our decision making process in the early stages...

Working on the assumption that green is good and red less so, Verne Castle (form and jockey track record), Top Breeze (form and trainer track record), Han Solo Berger (Trainer and Jockey both have good track records), Watchable (form and jockey/track) and El Guanache (form and jockey/track) are all positives early on, whilst Fizzy Feet, Embour and Verne Castle head the Speed Ratings.

Next in my process is a look at the Instant Expert (place) tab...

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At present I wouldn't get too hung up about the field size tab, but I am interested in any runner with any green anywhere else ie Ornate, Leodis Dream, Pistoleeto, Fizzy Feet, Embour, Benny and the Jets, Han Solo Berger and most particularly Top Breeze with a full line of green. Then I like to see how that translate to regular placers turning those runs into wins and the Instant Expert win tab tells us...

...that again Leodis Dream, Pistoletto, Fizzy Feet, Top Breeze and Benny and the Jets continue to score well, with Leodis Dream probably edging it here, especially with a such a good record over this minimum trip and as this is a 5f sprint, we really should consider pace & draw and the Geegeez heatmap, which suggests being on the front end and preferably not in the middle stalls (these are better just off the pace) would be the best place to be...

and when we add the horses and their recent styles, we get this suggested order of events...

...which also augurs very well for Leodis Dream, drawn against the fence and a confirmed front runner, whilst similar applies to Ornate but the draw hasn't been as kind there, but if Fizzy Feet and Verne Castle also crack on from just inside Ornate, that could well help the latter.

And whilst that's a full run through of what area on the card, I'd be looking at, I  could/should mention that several of these runners also feature on my own "stats checklist" for this race...

Wolv Trainer 16:05 Wolv Fizzy Feet
TapSprSire JC1 16:05 Wolv Han Solo Berger
GGZ SL Wolv Trainer 16:05:00 Wolv Leodis Dream
Wolv Trainer 16:05 Wolv Pistoletto
GGZ SL 16:05 Wolv Top Breeze
TJC1/5 16:05:00 Wolv Watchable

...which I'll briefly explain...

Fizzy Feet's trainer David Loughnane's Wolverhampton handicappers sent off at 3/1 to 14/1 are 29 from 143 (20.3%) at an A/E of .50 since the start of 2018 and he also trains Leodis Dream, who features on the Geegeez Shortlist, as does Top Breeze.

Han Solo Berger is by Lord Shanakill, an American sire, whose offspring are 5 from 20 (25%, A/E 1.81) in handicaps over 5f to 1m on Tapeta since the start of 2017, whilst his jockey Jack Mitchell is 35 from 137 (25.6%, A/E 1.39) in handicaps here over the same 2017-20 timeframe.

Pistoletto is trained by John Ryan who is 8 from 34 (23.5%, A/E 1.43) with Wolverhampton handicappers sent off at Evens to 12/1 since 2018, whilst Watchable represents the two Davids, O'Meara & Nolan who have combined for 10 winners from 18 (55.6%, A/E 2.64) here at Wolverhampton since 2017 at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

And after all of the above, I've got four horses on my shortlist, which (in alphabetical order) are Fizzy Feet, Han Solo Berger, Leodis Dream and Top Breeze.

Summary

It's at this point that I'd then look at the market to see whether I'd want to back any of my four possibles and the market suggests a two-horse race between Top breeze and Benny and the Jets. We can get 11/4 about Top Breeze and that's a fair price in my opinion about an in-form runner knocking on the door, so I'd be happy to have a couple of  quid on that.

If the market is right about it being a two-horse race, then the door is open for a decent-priced placer and Fizzy Feet, Han Solo Berger & Leodis Dream are currently quoted at 9/1, 14/1 and 16/1 respectively.

I thought HSB might have been a bit longer than that and although I might reget it, I'll give him a miss at 14's. But 9/1 about Fizzy Feet and particularly 16/1 about Leodis Dream look decent and I'd be happy to take both of those E/W.

It's rare that I'd back three in a race, I often don't back any after analysing it, but Leodis Dream has every chance of going well at a silly price if he gets out quickly and toughs it out, of course.

Racing Insights, 13th October 2020

Tuesday's feature of the day is the Shortlist report, so that's where I'm going to base this piece.

So, without further ado, here is the Shortlist for Tuesday...

...where one horse, Beau Geste, leaps from the page with a maximum score of 15. He's currently available to back at around the 11/4 to 3/1 mark and I want to take a closer look at him to see if he justifies being towards the head of the market and also whether he's possibly worth sticking a quid or two on.

We'll start with the racecard...

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...which immediately alerts us to two wins and two places from his last five runs, he's dropping in class (↓1) from a 4th place finish (on turf) 44 days ago and he'll be ridden by Hollie Doyle, who herself has a good record at this venue (C5). His Geegeez Speed Rating of 79 is well clear of the next best rated, which is also another bonus.

The Instant Expert tab on the racecard adds numbers to the colours indicated on the Shortlist, as follows...

...based around the above, I can also tell you that his entire A/W career form reads 12113, all at Class 6, including the 3 from 3 here at Wolverhampton over 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs and he has finished 1211 under jockey Hollie Doyle, who herself has the C5 icon next to her name on the racecard.

In fact, since the start of 2019, Hollie has a near 1-in-5 record on this track, winning 40 of 202 races, including 32 from 89 (36%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, 25 from 108 (23.2%) on male runners and 19 from 97 (19.6%) at Class 6, whilst she is 8 from 25 (32%) on Class 6 males sent off at 6/1 and shorter.

I don't want to labour this too much, but it's probably worth looking to see how trainer Tony Carroll fares here at Wolverhampton, as I prefer not to see trainers relying on one horse for winners and thankfully my fears on that score are allayed as he has a marginally better than 1-in-7 record here this year courtesy of 12 winners from 82.

They include 11 from 64 (17.2%) from horses with a run in the previous seven weeks, 10 from 62 (16.1%) for male runners, 9 from 30 (30%) from those sent off at odds ranging from 5/4 to 9/2, 8 from 51 (15.7%) from 3/4 yr olds and 6 from 23 (26.1%) over trips of 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, whilst his 3/4 yr old males at 5/4 to 9/2 are 5 from 10 (50%) having ran in the previous 7 weeks and they include 2 from 2 in the last 6 weeks alone.

Whether Beau Geste goes on to win here or not, there are plenty of useful angles above that you can put into your query tool to generate future runners/winners going forward. Research is always a long-term project and whilst instant success is always welcome, it's not the be all and end all.

Summary

Beau Geste is currently the 11/4 favourite in the early market and the above analysis would appear to back that up. He's better than his last 4th place effort would suggest when staying on under hands and heels after being hampered on ground probably a bit to soft for him.

Can he win here? I'd say so, despite him being a hold-up horse. The pace profile of this contest suggests that he shouldn't win, but with a 3 from 3 record at this track, being held up hasn't stopped him yet. He might need some luck in running, but Hollie Doyle knows what she's doing and the braver amongst you might wait until the race goes in-play for a higher price on the exchanges if he is held up again.

 

Racing Insights, 5th October 2020

Saturday's piece looked at a couple of runners at Newmarket, where I felt Hyanna was a better proposition than Inclyne and so she was by some 17 lengths, but that was as far as it went for us. No gloating in finding the 5th & 7th home of 7 and no return from a speculative 20/80 bet at Betfair SPs of 14.5 and 4.43 respectively.

Next up is...

Monday 5th October

Feature of the Day is Pace Tab on all races , which is free on Monday to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

Monday's free Races of the Day are

3.15 Stratford
3.35 Killarney
4.45 Wolverhampton
7.00 Wolverhampton

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I'm going to swerve the first two, as Novice Hurdles really aren't my thing, leaving us with a choice of two from which I've plumped for the..

4.45 Wolverhampton : an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner.

Where my starting point is Instant Expert and those with at least 2 blocks of green on their profile ie...

What jumps out here is Fast Spin's consistency and her 100% record at this venue, whilst Poetic Force is also one to note on this track and runs off a mark 2lbs lower than his last win on the A/W, albeit six months ago. Fast Spin's blocks of green are also replicated on the shortlist report...

From here we'll move back to the main card and the Geegeez ratings...

Here we're instantly drawn back to Fast Spin, as both her yard and her jockey are both in good form (14 30) and have good records at this course (C1 C5), whilst Poetic Force's jockey is in good nick and Kodiac Pride hails from another yard with a good Wolverhampton record. Lequinto however may not have any of those green icons and his yard haven't fared too well recently, but he is top of our ratings with Fast Spin and Kodiac Pride also in the top four.

Hand in hand with 7 furlong ratings comes pace and as the pace tab is today's feature, let's look at the pace/draw heat map for our shortlisted quartet.

Positives here once again are Fast Spin and Kodiac Pride and they're also the two form horses of the race.

Summary

Of the four horses I shortlisted for this race, I'd boil it down to a 2-horse contest between Fast Spin and Kodiac Pride with a preference for the former, based on the details above. Despite the evidence I've shown here, I don't think she'll unbackably short and you should be able to get 3/1 about her, thanks to not being particularly well drawn out in stall 10. Kodiac Pride will probably be around the 4/1 mark and could/should run Fast Spin close.

If pushed for a small punt, it'd be 0.75pts Fast Spin with a 0.25pt saver on Kodiac Pride or you could do a straight dutch or even a reverse forecast, but my marginal preference here is for Fast Spin.

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.50 Bath : Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by Vet ; Lame)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard, which shows two of my own angles...

...and a 6 yr old gelding who won LTO 15 days ago (over 8.5f here at Wolverhampton). That win took his career A/W record to...

...from which he is...

  • 7/43 (16.3%) in handicaps
  • 7/32 (21.9%) within 15 days of his last run
  • 7/22 (31.8%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 6/35 (17.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/26 (19.2%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 5/20 (25%) at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.1%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1/1 (100%) under jockey Ray Dawson (from LTO)

And now to my two saved angles, starting with "TapSprSire", which is basically a collection of sires whose offspring fare well in shorter races on the Tapeta. In today's case, the sire is Art Conoisseur and the angle is...

...and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/51 (19.6%) at odds of 3/1 to 14/1
  • 9/67 (13.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/64 (14.1%) from males
  • 8/45 (17.8%) during 2018-20
  • 6/35 (17.1%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 6/32 (18.75%) over 7f
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for trainer David Loughnane
  • 5/31 (16.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/16 (18.75%) from 6 yr olds
  • 2/6 (33.3%) from jockeys claiming 5lbs
  • 1/1 (100%) for jockey Ray Dawson

And finally to my cunningly entitled "Wolv" angle, which you might have guessed revolves around this course and here we're looking at trainer stats, namely...

...including...

  • 40/264 (15.2%) in handicaps
  • 33/229 (14.4%) in 9-12 runner contests
  • 31/143 (21.7%) at 3/1 to 11/1
  • 29/189 (15.3%) during 2019-20
  • 28/203 (13.8%) from males
  • 16/123 (13%) at Class 6
  • 15/100 (15%) over this 7f C&D
  • 11/79 (13.9%) in fields of 12 runners
  • 10/60 (16.6%) during August/September
  • 5/24 (20.8%) with a jockey claiming 5lbs
  • and 4 from 21 (19.1%) with 6 yr olds

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.05 Newton Abbot : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led 1st, headed after 3 out, no extra 2 out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4,  A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, the racecard would suggest we've a fighting chance here...

...with a 4 yr old who loves this track, tops the Geegeez ratings and will be ridden by an in-form jockey. All of that, however, is pretty self explanatory by the way we lay it out on the cards.

So, I'll focus on my own "AW Stay" angle for my data today and this basically refers to a group of trainers (six in total) who I keep an eye out for in longer distance A/W handicaps : many of my personal angles really are that simple!

In trainer William Knight's case, my starting point is any such race over a trip of 1m3f and beyond, which since 2015 has given us...

... a 1 in 5 strike rate at an A/E of 1.37 and a profit at Betfair SP of almost 93p for every pound wagered. These are exceptional numbers when you consider we're approaching almost 200 runners over a decent time frame and closer analysis of those 185 runners when faced with similar conditions to today reveals the following dozen ways Mr Knight got his 37 winners...

  • 34/144 (23.6%) for 152.87pts (+106.2%) in races worth up to £8,000
  • 33/160 (20.6%) for 132.64pts (+82.9%) from male runners
  • 30/113 (26.6%) for 148.96pts (+131.8%) with 3-5 yr olds
  • 26/108 (24.1%) for 153.78pts (+142.4%) ran on the A/W LTO
  • 24/126 (19.1%) for 151.26pts (+120.1%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/49 (42.9%) for 30.06pts (+61.4%) sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 19/74 (25.7%) for 84.14pts (+113.7%) at trips of 1m6f and beyond
  • 18/58 (31%) for 117.9pts (+203.3%) at Class 4
  • 12/61 (19.7%) for 42.13pts (+69.1%) during August to October
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 27.67pts (+120.3%) on Tapeta
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.65pts (+92.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 8.52pts (+142.1%) over today's 1m6f trip...

...whilst 3-5 yr old males competing for less than £8k at 6-45 days after a run on the A/W LTO are...

...and although I'm wary of over-diluting the sample size, it's worth noting (IMO, at least), that this smaller set of 35 runners includes...

  • 10/16 (62.5%) for 57.34pts (+358.4%) at 1m6f and beyond
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 14.58pts (+76.7%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 6/12 (50%) for 41.89pts (+349.1%) at Class 4
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.71pts (+437.1%) in September & October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

7.45 Hamilton : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Led to post and taken down early, tracked leaders, effort when not clear run 2f out, switched left over 1f out, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,881 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is often the case, with the racecard...

Jockey James Doyle is in excellent form right now, as seen above and also has a 50% strike rate here at Wolverhampton (18 from 36) since the start of 2018, including 5 wins from 8 over this 7f course and distance.

He comes here for the first time since the 7th December to ride a 4 yr old gelding who was only beaten by a head last time out at Chelmsford when finishing strongly over 6f, so the extra distance allied to James' talents might just make all the difference today for a horse that already has a win and a place from his two previous efforts on this track and is three from ten at Class 5.

More generally, since 2015, Roger Teal's handicappers returning within two weeks of a top three finish where they either won or were beaten by two lengths or less are 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 52.92pts (+129.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 63.92pts (+213.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 45.29pts (+188.7%) in the second half of the year
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 49.03pts (+213.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 37.62pts (+179.2%) were beaten by a head to two lengths
  • 6/20 (30%) for 27.62pts (+138.1%) over trips of a mile or shorter
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 51.42pts (+395.5%) stepping up in trip by 1-2 furlongs
  • and 5 from 17 (29.4%) for 33.04pts (+194.4%) at Class 5...

...whilst in 6-11 runner contests worth less than £4k in the second half of the year, they are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 35.4pts (+295% ROI) at an A/E of some 2.98...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG or bigger in places as was available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Chester : Power of States @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Raced keenly in mid-division, no real headway when switched sharply left entering final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Going to keep it short and hopefully sweet today with a filly who finished second last time out at Class 5 to a colt who had previously run in the Gr 2 Coventry at Ascot. She now drops another grade, but is burdened with top weight of 9st 12lbs off a mark (OR) of 62 here today, based on that last run.

There are differing opinions about having to carry more weight than other juveniles, but the stats tell me that since the start of 2015, top weighted horses in Wolverhampton nurseries are 29 from 126 (23% SR) for 76.2pts (+60.2% ROI) profit when carrying 9st 7lbs or more off a mark of 60-85 and these include...

  • 24/114 (21%) for 66pts (+57.9%) on races worth £2k-4k
  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 64.7pts (+87.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 15/72 (20.8%) for 60.8pts (+84.4%) at Class 6
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 53.8pts (+138%) on handicap debut
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 53.6pts (+116.4%) dropping down a class
  • and 5/13 (38.5%) for 23.6pts (+181.6%) during July & August...

...whilst in 9-11 runner, Class 6 contests worth £2k-4k, they are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 59.9pts (+139.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.15am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, never near leaders, beaten by 6 lengths). Tough week so far, but we crack on.

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W  handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, as is generally the case, the racecard is our first port of call...

This suggests that aside from LTO, this horse has tended to be there or thereabouts (he doesn't win enough to be honest) and will be ridden by an excellent jockey with a good record on this track. What the above doesn't say is that his last four races haven't been on Tapeta and that he has made the frame twice in three starts here at Wolverhampton.

He's only ever won one race from 27 efforts so far, making the frame in just four other starts, but has one win and one place from two runs under today's jockey, so let's deal with that JC1 icon first before I look at other supporting data. We're told that Hollie Doyle is 23 from 115 (20% SR) here over the last year and she arrives here today in scintillating form after finishes of 122111 here at this venue yesterday.

Of that 23/115 yearly record here, Hollie has 11 wins from 55 (20% SR) at Class 6 and 10 wins from 38 (26.3% SR) over trips of 5/6 furlongs, suggesting she's a good judge of pace on lower grade races on a surface not all jockeys "get".

A quick look at the Geegeez speed ratings is self-explanatory too...

As, hopefully, is the pace/draw heat map...

And now I want to wrap this up by returning to my earlier suggestion that this horse might run better back at Wolverhampton after recent efforts on turf and there's some evidence that would be the case via his breeding, as offspring of the sire Camacho have fared better returning to the Tapeta after running elsewhere. This is probably better explained pictorially, so my saved micro-system is...

And of that 14/53 record, Camacho's offspring are...

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 30.4pts (+95%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 7/25 (28%) for 24.27pts (+97.1%) at Class 6
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 16.6pts (+75.5%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 22.6pts (+141.3%) in 3 yr old races
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.46pts (+180.4%) over 6f
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) within 10 days of their last run

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps here at Wolverhampton over 5-7 furlongs, they are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.34pts (+131% ROI), including 3 from 7 (42.9%) in 3yo contests and 3/7 (42.9%) at 1-10 dslr...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

3.10 Southwell : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1 (Mid-division, took keen hold, mistake 1st, lost place and not fluent 6th, no impression 2 out).

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Claiming Stakes for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we'll start with the racecard that I've expanded to show my two angles from the parameters I have set in the report suite...

This shows a 10 yr old gelding in prime form having won his last three outings, the latest of which was a Class 4, 6f contest here at Wolverhampton 20 days ago. Most of you know this already, as we backed him for SotD that day too (see here, as much of that piece is still very valid).

He now drops down 2 classes to run in this claimer and I think he should have too much for a group of rivals who look to be (a) out of form, (b) in need of a run or (c) both!

The reports and icons tell us that trainer Michael Herrington has done well at this venue for a number of years (TC5), especially thanks to this horse, jockey and horse/jockey combo, so let's take a quick look at the numbers, starting with the horse...

...whose 7 from 24 here at Wolverhampton includes...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 25.54pts (at BFSP, of course) at an ROI of 170.2%
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.8%) at 5/1 and shorter
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.03pts (+158.6%) in fields of 6-10 runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 17.88pts (+446.9%) after a win LTO
  • 3/3 (100%) for 17.86pts (+595.3%) with Tom Eaves in the saddle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.17pts (+239%) at Class 6
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) in claimers

...whilst in fields of 6-10 runners at 5/1 or shorter competing for less than £5k, Steelriver is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 10.4pts (+173.3% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.

Next we turn our attention to the trainer and his recent record at this venue...

...and these include...

  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 50.2pts (+86.6%) at odds of evens to 11/1
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 48.2pts (+65.1%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 44.3pts (+130.3%) at Class 6
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 54.3pts (+452.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 6/23 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+69.1%) with Tom Eaves doing the steering

...whilst LTO winners sent off shorter than 7/1 in Class 6 contests are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 18.9pts (+472.6% ROI)

And finally, back to the trainer/jockey combo, which I've just said was standing at 6 wins from 23 since the start of 2018. Those figures include of relevance today...

  • 3 winners from 10 (30%) for 8.03pts (+80.3%) at Class 6
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 21.96pts (+732.1%) on LTO winners

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available in several places at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.40 Lingfield : Almqvist @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Raced wide chasing leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong) : one of a couple of poor Johnston runners today.

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

It looks like a day of poor racing to me and the majority of runners on my overnight shortlist have failed on the final check ie price/value, so we're going with one that might need a bit of luck but is a far bigger price than his record/stats suggest he should be, but let's see.

We start off with the racecard as usual which shows that this 10 yr old gelding is returning to the track after just over three months' rest to attempt to complete a hat-trick (all here at Wolverhampton by the way)...

...you'll also see that he has a good record here at Wolverhampton (Horses for Courses) and that his trainer has also done well here (C5 icon and also one of my Wolverhampton trainers to look out for : the "Wolv" angle), so let's assess those separately.

We start off with Steelriver's record here at Wolverhampton, as he transforms a career record of...

...into the following here at Wolverhampton...

And of those 23 previous runs here, he is...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+43.9% ROI) for trainer Michael Herrington (more on him very shortly)
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+43.9% ROI) in races worth less than £8k
  • 5/13 (41.7%) for 9.11pts (+75.9%) since the start of 2019
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 5.97pts (+66.3%) in fields of 10/11 runners
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.19pts (+119.8%) stepping up in class
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.24pts (+141.5%) after a win LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 4.23pts (+211.5%) under jockey Tom Eaves
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.8pts (+60%) at Class 4

And now to the trainer Michael Herrington's record at Wolverhampton, where in handicaps he has achieved the following...

And of those 96 handicappers to run here in the past almost 4.5 years...

  • those aged 5 or older are 14/63 (22.2%) for 46.63pts (+74%)
  • since the start of 2018, they are 13/71 (18.3%) for 36.89pts (+52%)
  • 5yo+ since 1/1/18 are 12/45 (26.7%) for 53.34pts (+118.5%) *this is where my interest lies
  • over this 6f C&D : 7/31 (22.6%) for 32.32pts (+104.3%)
  • LTO Winners are 6/13 (46.7%) for 36.08pts (+277.6%)
  • and in June/July : 4/10 (40%) for 23.84pts (+238.4%)

And as Steelriver was a course and distance winner here last time out, I though we'd take a quick look at the trainer's record when taking horses who won last time out back to a track where they've previously won over C&D ie...


from which those runners (all on the All-Weather btw) are...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 33.43pts (+417.9%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 34.43pts (+491.9%) in 9-13 runner contests here at Wolverhampton
  • 4/10 (40%) for 24.34pts (+243.4%) over the same C&D as that LTO win
  • 3/6 (50%) for 20.56pts (+342.7%) last year alone (just 1 run so far in 2020, unsurprisingly)
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 19.56pts (+279.3%) over a 6/7 furlong C&D LTO
  • 3/5 (60%) for 23.7pts (+474%) over a Wolverhampton C&D LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) for 16.91pts (+422.6%) over a Wolves C&D at 6/7f LTO
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 19.86pts (+993%) in June/July

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 8.15am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.15 Haydock : Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Led, driven and headed 1f out, held towards finish) : right on the pace as expected, but couldn't hold on.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bavardages @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old colt has finished 112 in his last three starts, all in A/W handicaps and he has the benefit of having had a pipe-opener this season already, when a half-length runner-up on Newcastle's Tapeta six days ago. That was coming off a break of 198 days and I'd expect him to come on for the run.

PJ McDonald rides for Mark Johnston here and the pair have already had 4 winners from 14 together since the resumption and they make a pretty good team in A/W handicaps as is best shown as follows...

...and those figures include of relevance today...

  • 20/109 (18.4%) for 44.7pts (+41%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 17/61 (27.9%) for 74.4pts (+122%) on horses raced in the previous 6 to 20 days
  • 15/78 (19.2%) for 44.8pts (+57.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/34 (17.7%) for 7.6pts (+22.2%) at class 5
  • and 5/32 (15.6%) for 25.8pts (+80.5%) here at Wolverhampton

Of the above, it makes sense to me to focus on the first three subsets of data and since the start of 2017, combining the three gives us this workable angle...

*

Bavardages' recent run was as I said, his first in over six months and trainer Mark Johnston has a good recent record with A/W handicappers at the sharper end of the market, who have only had 1 other handicap outing in the previous 90 days. It's not as complicated as it sounds, but a picture often illustrates better ie

...from which we can again apply some logical/relevant filters like...

  • 18 from 43 (41.9%) for 42.1pts (+98%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.7pts (+138.7%) for those who ran on Tapeta LTO
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 21.75pts (+128%) at Class 5
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.1pts (+186.8%) with PJ McDonald in the saddle
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 4pts (+40%) here at Wolverhampton

I won't combine the above into an angle for fear of over-diluting the sample size, but I think I've enough grounds...

...to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Bavardages @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral and Bet365 respectively at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!