Posts

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.15 Hereford : Stepover @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Took keen hold, tracked leader until mistake 4th, shaken up after 3 out, driven after next, one pace and no impression, no extra flat) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old gelding who was beaten by just a length over 8.5f at this very track 5 days ago, he's quickly turned back out off the same mark but takes a drop in trip to a course and distance where he has won previously in the past off this mark of 55.

He's by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3-5 yr olds are 17/105 (16.2% SR) for 47.1pts (+44.9% ROI) in Class 6 A/W handicaps over 7-8 furlongs and whilst that's a nice little micro-system that continues to bear fruit, we've bigger fish to fry here, because...

...since the start of 2013 in UK A/W handicaps over 6 to 8.5f, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a defeat by 3 lengths or less LTO are 131 from 591 (22.2% SR) for 186.7pts (+31.6% ROI). Obviously I'm not saying you should follow them blindly, as 100 or so bets per year from one angle can be too much for many, but it is one you could use if you're not a jumps fan this winter.

If, however, like many you prefer to refine the selection further, there's an absolute myriad of logical, profitable angles (they should always be logical!) you could take. I'm "only" going to scratch the surface and give you 14 possible angles of attack! So, from our original 591 quick returners, in descending order of number of selections...

  • those running off the same mark (OR) as LTO : 118/507 (23.3%) for 176.7pts (+34.9%)
  • males are 104/449 (23.2%) for 158.8pts (+35.4%)
  • those running at the same class as LTO : 89/385 (23.1%) for 164.5pts (+42.7%)
  • Class 6 runners are 71/296 (24%) for 151.7pts (+51.3%)
  • those running on the same track as LTO : 55/237 (23.2%) for 105.4pts (+44.5%)
  • those last seen 5 days ago are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • here at Wolverhampton, it's 51/191 (26.7%) for 115.3pts (+60.4%)
  • those who ran here at Wolverhampton LTO are 44/188 (23.4%) for 91.5pts (+48.7%)
  • those racing over 7f are also 44/188 (23.4%) but for 58pts (+30.9%)
  • those racing on Tapeta are 37/142 (26.1%) for 77pts (+54.2%)
  • 5 yr olds are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • those dropping in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs are 26/90 (28.9%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • those who are running here at Wolverhampton and also did so LTO are 23/87 (26.4%) for 73.5pts (+84.4%)
  • and in October/November : 20/84 (23.8%) for 89.9pts (+107%)

Now, going back to the original 131/591 (22.2%) for 186.7pts (+31.6%), the above examples show how robust the strategy is, regardless of today's result. We've 14 (and there are many more) logical angles, all with a similar strike rate to the original and this is good for us systemites. The original 22.2% only has extremes of 21% and 28.9% in the examples and this shows the stability of the system.

Of course, there's far more variance in the ROI (22.3% to 107%), but this merely shows that the market hasn't yet cottoned on to some of the angles and I'll wrap up for the day by offering a composite from the above for those who want just a few bets each year at a higher SR/ROI than the original...

...as Class 6 males who also ran at Class 6 LTO 3-5 days earlier off the same mark at the same track = 25/67 (37.3% SR) for 86.8pts (+129.5% ROI) including 10 winners from 28 (35.7%) for 38pts (+135.7%) here at Wolverhampton, but these angles are a little more niche/contrived than the original examples!

...but they all point towards... a 1pt win bet on Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Sky Bet & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Monday evening (a price still kicking around at 9.00am Tuesday), although Bet365 were slightly better at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.45 Kempton : Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led 1f, prominent, outpaced over 3f out, no impression after) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding won at this track over 1m4f 27 days ago in a race that came exactly 27 days after he narrowly failed by a neck over the same course and distance, so he should be fresh enough today. Clifford Lee was on board for the win that day and he retains the ride with his 3lb claim today.

The horse, although a previous course winner, hasn't run over this track and trip before, but he does have a win at the distance elsewhere under his belt, so he should stay.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it pretty simple for you this morning...

Trainer Kevin Frost's LTO winners have repeated the feat on 7 of 17 occasions (41.2% SR) already this year and backing eac of them has been worth 14.9pts profit at an ROI of 32.4% and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 31.8pts (+227.1%)
  • at 6/1 and shorter : 6/8 (75%) for 16.73pts (+209.2%)
  • after a break of just 11-30 days : 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.27pts (+115.9%)
  • and on the A/W (all here at Wolverhampton actually) : 3/4 (75%) for 12.87pts (+321.8%)

And finally a quick note about jockey Clifford Lee, because for a jockey still riding with a claim, he has an exceptional record at this particular venue, winning 10 of 59 (17% SR) here since the start of 2017, recording level stakes profits of 89.3pts (+151.4% ROI) with a particular talent for winning in these low-grade contests, winning 7 of 21 (33.3%) at Class 6 for 52pts (+247.8% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by pretty much everyone at 12.10pm on Thursday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.05 Huntingdon : Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leading pair, went right 3rd, outpaced when hit 4 out, not fluent 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on to press for modest 2nd closing stages, no chance with winner) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Keeping it simple today with the inspiration from the pick coming mainly from our Horses for Courses report and also because I like the horse's chances at the prices available!

He's an 8 yr old gelding, who won here at Wolverhampton over 8.5 furlongs 34 days ago on what was just his fourth start for Donald McCain (better known for his NH exploits, of course!). The win took his record for the yard to 2 wins from 4 including 2 from 2 on the A/W, both on this track.

His overall record on the All-Weather is excellent, winning 7 of 21 (33.3% SR) for profits of 40.6pts (+193.5% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those 21 races have produced the following of note...

  • going left handed : 6/19 (31.6%) for 35.6pts (+187.5%)
  • wearing blinkers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 37.6pts (+221.4%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 : 6/15 940%) for 24.7pts (+164.8%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 7/14 (50%) for 47.6pts (+340.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 39.1pts (+325.9%)
  • at the age of 8 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+216.1%)
  • for Donald McCain : 2/2 (100%) for 19.2pts (+960%)
  • at Class 4 : 1/2 (50%) for 9.93pts (+496.5%)
  • over this 1.5 mile trip : 1/2 950%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%)
  • and over today's course and distance : 1/1 (100%) for 8.23pts (+411.5%)

And from the above, it's worth pointing out that when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 here at Wolverhampton (going left handed, of course!) whilst wearing blinkers in fields of 5 to 11 runners, Barnaby Brook has won 4 of 7 (57.1% SR) for 22.2pts profit at an ROI of 317.3%. Of the three he failed to win, he was the runner-up, beaten by a length, 1.25 lengths and 1.5 lengths : so always on the premises under those conditions...

...pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betvictor & SkyBet at 5.20pm on Thursday evening, whilst Bet365 were standouts at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG a poor 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leader, led 4f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Conkering Hero 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 5, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has won 4 of his 13 A/W races to date and comes here in great form having won each of the last three, culminating in a course and distance success here a week ago and of his 4/13 A/W record, he has the following...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 at the age of 4
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 in a visor
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 over 2m/2m½f
  • 2 wins from 4 in fields of 6/7 runners
  • 2 wins from 3 in July / August
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 with Finley Marsh in the saddle
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (that LTO win a week ago)

Trainer Joseph Tuite is 15 from 74 (20.3% SR) for 18.81pts (+25.4% ROI) with his Flat & A/W LTO winners since the start of 2015, including...

  • 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 7.07pts (+22.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 16.55pts (+57.1%) sent off shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 38.67pts (+133.3%) from June to August
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.89pts (+58.2%) in 2018
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.68pts (+72.3%) 6-10 days after their LTO win
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.15pts (+431.5%) over 1m6f and beyond
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.04pts (+113%) here at Wolverhampton

As I alluded earlier, 5lb claimer Finley Marsh is in the saddle today and so far this year, he is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+177.9% ROI) on the Tuite string of horses, from which he is...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.9pts (+199.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.9pts (+224.2%) when claiming his 5lb allowance
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 27.9pts (+253.7%) when claiming 5lbs in a handicap

And finally for this one (phew!)... Since the start of 2013 in Class 5 A/W contests, horses who won over course and distance last time out by 3 lengths or less at odds of 11/4 to 20/1 are 25 from 52 (48.1% SR) for 51.45pts (+98.9% ROI) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Conkering Hero 5/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 9.45pm on Thursday. with plenty of 9/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 25th

WINDSOR – JUNE 25 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £701.90 (6 favourites: No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 3.7 units went through – 22/1 – 16/1 – 20/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 89.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 66/1 – 10/11*

Race 3: 54.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 6/4*

Race 4: 29.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 13/8*

Race 5: 24.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 11/4 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 3/1 (9/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 6 (Cent Flying), 2 (Spot Lite) & 3 (Spanish Star)

Leg 2 (6.40): 11 (Swiper), 5 (Glory) & 9 (Storm Shelter)

Leg 3 (7.10): 2 (Bella Ferrari) & 6 (Edge Of The World)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Buffer Zone) & 5 (Perfect Hustler)

Leg 5 (8.10): 1 (Desert Path), 5 (Morning Sky) & 2 (Candidate)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Worth Waiting) & 2 (Contrive)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

 6.10: CENT FLYING is ten pounds better in with SPOT LITE for a minimum margin defeat on Bath form earlier in the year.  It would not be wise to take that form line too seriously given the different format of the two tracks but even so, the weights and measures act offers the nod to the first named William Muir raider, on principle if nothing else.  Bookmakers have choked on cigars for as long as man can recall when such scenarios have been on place, only for the form lines to become as twisted as Alfred Hitchcock plots down the years.  Should both runners fall wide of the required mark (entirely possible at this level), connections of SPANISH STAR should prove to be the main beneficiaries.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite sent the majority of punters home happy, given that twelve months ago, this was the last race on the card.

 

6.40: Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue.  Tom saddles STORM SHELTER this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride.  That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between SWIPER and GLORY who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting).  Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than BLESSED TO IMPRESS I’ll wager, though BELLA FERRARI and EDGE OF THE WORLD should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  The pair is listed in order of preference, given that the 6/1 quote in a couple of places this morning offers half decent ‘bet to nothing’ prospects about the George Scott’s raider who is a pound better off with that rival on Leicester form last time out, when George’s Bated Breath filly was making her handicap debut.  That said, Ralph Beckett sent one horse up to Pontefract to winning effect yesterday and his hat trick seeker EDGE OF THE WORLD looks set to run her race again on these terms.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Windsor programme.

 

7.40: Ten of the twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which suggest that Kimifive (from 8-6) might struggle against his five rivals this event.  The pick of the relevant quintet will hopefully prove to be BUFFER ZONE, though those working from a working man’s wage might care to row in with Jeremy Noseda’s each way option, namely PERFECT HUSTLER who is closely matched with the hot favourite via two-year-old form.  Jeremy has suffered something of a well-documented traumatic year, though it’s worth noting that his 8/28 record since February is a (29%) ratio which most trainers would settle for.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/1—Buffer Zone (good)

 

8.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6, though even this self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ is taking on the figures this time around with DESERT PATH.  Amanda Perret’s top weight is still on offer at 9/2 at the time of writing, a price that I snapped up in the dead of night, presuming that the odds would not last too long.  MORNING SKYE and CANDIDATE have both been well placed by their respective connections, though DESRT PATH represents a far better chance than the 18% ‘probability quote’ by the layers this morning from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the last 21 years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Desert Path (good)

 

8.40: Starlight Mystery represents some value for money at around the 9/1 mark this morning in the Placepot finale, though the safest options to secure another dividend appear to be WORTH WAITING and CONTRIVE. David Lanigan’s raider WORTH WAITING is the option that I would take if money arrives for the Bated Breath filly, given that a great number of David’s winners are well backed.  Without holding that potential edge by writing this analysis fourteen hours ahead of the race, I will just have to be patient and see what support transpires.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last the previous year (2016 - £455.90)

Despite five winning favourites in the relevant Placepot events, one race did the damage.

Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance.

As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th June

GOODWOOD – JUNE 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £156.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 55.9% units went through – 9/2 – 6/1 – 7/2*

Race 2: 48.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 9/2** - 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 3: 32.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 22/1 – 6/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 55.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 5/1

Race 6: 28.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 9 (Unbridled Spirit), 2 (Cheeky Rascal) & 4 (Marble Bar)

Leg 2 (6.30): 7 (Flowing Clarets), 5 (Incentive) & 8 (Mad Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Sky Eagle), 2 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Arab Moon)

Leg 4 (7.40): 2 (Pretty Jewel), 3 (Arcadian Cat), 4 (Gift Of Hera) & 1 (Reckless Wave)

Leg 5 (8.15): 2 (Silca Mistress)

Leg 6 (8.50): 9 (Supernova), 5 (Great Beyond) & 3 (Crystal King)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

  • Nice win for us yesterday with 48 winning 10p lines at Sandown which created a Placepot profit of £212.64 on the day…

 

5.55: Although three of his seven runners won during a good period this time last week, Andrew Balding’s runners continue to blow hot and cold this season, though I’m hoping the flag back at the ranch will by flying at its highest mast after UNBRIDLED SPIRIT scores here, chiefly at the expense of CHEEKY RASCAL and MARBLE BAR I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top priced of 7/1, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.  Five of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

6.30: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in this event, though only John Bridger (FLOWING CLARETS) seems alive to the potential ‘edge’.  Luke Morris might find himself in a tassle to grab the lead aboard John’s raider early doors though either way, I’m adding Flowing Clarets into the mix via my self-confessed anorak tendencies.  Stuart Kittow’s pair INCENTIVE and MAD ENDEAVOUR are included in the Placepot equation in a race which could produce a result which will kill off several thousand Placepot units – hopefully!

Favourite factor: Four of the last five winners (of six in total) have scored at a top price of 5/1, stats which include two (7/2 & 5/2) winners.  That said, only three of the seven market leaders thus far have finished in the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Oeil De Tigre (good to soft)

1/3—Mad Endeavour (soft)

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet only a trio of vintage representatives feature in the nine strong field.  There have been other forecasts gained during the period though the 2015 renewal stood out with four-year-olds securing a 120/1 Exacta Forecast alongside the 345/1 Trifecta dividend!  This year’s trio are SKY EAGLE, HUMBLE HERO and ARAB MOON.  The defence rests its case!

Favourite factor: Only one 7/2 (joint favourite) has obliged during the last decade during which time, just four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/3—Arthur Mc Bride (good & soft)

 

7.40: PRETTY JEWELL would be the call if had to nominate one of the four declarations from a win perspective, though with her course victory having been gained under soft conditions, I feel duty bound to include all four runners in my permutation before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Pretty Jewel (soft)

 

8.15: I have searched through the card for a banker in one of the races, knowing that I was going to have to offer large perms in some races, believing that a good Placepot dividend is on the cards tonight.  I have opted for SILCA MISTRESS, even though Clive Cox’s raider drops down a furlong after scoring at Leicester recently.  Having made all at Leicester, pace should not be an issue and nothing should be staying on stronger in the final furlong.  Adam Kirby’s mount has secured gold and silver medals over this distance in the past via six assignments, whilst her two victories to date have been gained under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first (seventh of nine) it what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

8.50: SUPERNOVA looks a tad big at 9/2 in four places at the time of writing, whilst others added into the Placepot equation are GREAT BEYOND and CRYSTAL KING.  If you are looking for an each way interest in the race, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Sarim I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest to close out the Goodwood programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 6th June

HAMILTON – JUNE 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £88.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.1% units went through – 11/8* (Win only)

Race 2: 95.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/4 & 11/8*

Race 3: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 & 12/1 (11/10)

Race 4: 25.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 & 7/2 (4/5)

Race 5: 65.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 -11/4*

Race 6: 35.8% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Hamiton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 9 (Princes Des Sables) & 1 (Axel Jacklin)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Jonboy) & 11 (Rotherhithe)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Sunrize), 2 (Kings Gold) & 6 (Al Hawraa)

Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Sir Dancealot) & 3 (Laugh A MInute)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Pioneering), 9 (Chinese Spirit) & 8 (Rock N Rolla)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Inexes), 1 (Short Work) & 7 (Start Time)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.00: I tend to shy away from maidens who have run four times when on offer at skinny prices and whilst Broken Spear will understandably attract thousands of Placepot units, Tony Coyle’s Pastoral Pursuits gelding wouldn’t be winning with my money riding on his back.  Kevin Ryan has saddled 25 juvenile winners down the years at this venue, securing 15 points of level stake profits into the bargain.  PRINCES DES SABLES in entered into the mix accordingly, whilst Mark Johnston’s raider AXEL JACKLIN will attract plenty of interest as usual.  Keith Dalgleish saddled the first winner of the contest twelve months ago but his Choisir filly was not making her debut, as opposed to Keith’s inmate Theatre Of War this time around.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.30: ROTHERHITHE hinted at becoming a bit of a madam having refused to go into the stalls at the first time of asking this year.  Her three silver medal efforts on her first year at school suggested that there was always a race like this in her, though warning signs are flashing now. Anyone fancying the Finjaan filly should have their fingers on the online button ready to offer the green light once she goes into the gate, though probably not before that scenario has ensued.  JONBOY is the call accordingly, with David Barron’s Delegator colt having made up plenty of late ground after being run off his feet early doors at this venue on his seasonal bow.  This additional (sixth) furlong is what the doctor was ordering long before the finish of that race four weeks ago.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Hamilton card.

 

3.00: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared the four renewals, with the younger set looking to hold the edge this time around.  KINGS GOLD and AL HAWRAA look the safest options at the time of writing, though a four-year-old is grabbing my attention as dawn begins to break over Bristol this morning.  SUNRIZE represents David O’Meara and with money coming in for David’s Azamour gelding overnight which adds weight to his chance in this grade/company.  David is very much a ‘London busses trainer’ whose winners tend to come packed together from my observations in recent years whereby another success here would come as no surprise, especially as three of David’s last six runners have obliged.

Favourite factor: We still await the first favourite to score after four renewals thus far. Only one market leader has finished in the frame to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Al Hawraa (good to soft)

 

3.30: On the face of things, SIR DANCEALOT would appear to have a few lengths in hand over LAUGH A MINUTE, with David Elsworth’s four-year-old Sir Prancealot gelding standing ten pounds clear of LAUGH A MINUTE according to the official assessor, though only having to give eight pounds away on this occasion.  That however does not take into account the definite scope for improvement for Roger Varian’s LAUGH A MINUTE which makes a mockery of the trade press quote this morning which suggests that Andrea Atzeni’s mount is “fully exposed” which defies belief to a fashion.  If LAUGH A MINUTE is fully exposed with all of four (and a tad) miles on his racing clock, God knows what the person who made the comment would make of yours truly attempting to make a living with a zimmer frame never far from my reach!  With sire Mayson not reaching his peak until racing as a four-year-old, the comment should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt it deserves at this moment in time.  I have every respect for eleven time winner Kimberella but his Scottish gigs have earned just two bronze medals via seven assignments thus far, albeit this is his first run at Hamilton.

Favourite factor: This Class 2 Conditions event is another new race on the Hamilton Programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/1—Classic Seniority (good)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds came to the gig on a four timer last year (via as many renewals), when the two vintage representatives had to settle for silver and bronze medals behind the five-year-old winner. A trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the field accordingly, namely PIONEERING (another David O’Meara raider with each way claims on the card), CHINESE SPIRIT (trainer back among the winners now) and ROCK N ROLLA who has dropped to a favourable mark, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: We still await the first favourite to score after four renewals thus far. Only one market leader has finished in the frame to date.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Zabeel Star (good to firm)

 

4.30: INEXES comes to the party on a hat trick and with 11/4 offered across the board for Marjorie Fife’s inmate, the 27% probability factor set by layers looks about right.  SHORT WORK and START TIME are the potential party poopers from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Although two of the favourites claimed Placepot positions in the four renewals to date, we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Inexes (good to firm & soft)

2/8—Khelman (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 6th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

8.45 Newcastle : Blazed @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 (Slowly away, towards rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, no impression and no extra final 75 yards)

We continue with Wednesday's...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding on a hat-trick after a win over course and distance was backed up by a success over the same trip at Ayr 15 days ago. He stayed on well to win late on both occasions and with no real discernible pace on offer in this contest, I expect a similar tactic to hopefully produce a similar result.

Previous track knowledge certainly helps around here and that prior C&D win was his only run at the venue, so he's unbeaten here albeit from the smallest sample size imaginable!

His trainer Tim Easterby has had 12 winners from 75 (16% SR) for 10.3pts (+13.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2015 with that low-ish ROI suggesting that his horses attract some support whilst winning more than their fair share and of the 75 mentioned...

  • handicappers are 11/65 (16.9%) for 6.33pts (+9.7%)
  • those sent off at evens to 12/1 are 12/50 (24%) for 35.3pts (+70.6%)
  • males are 10/48 (20.8%) for 18.2pts (+38%)
  • and at Class 6, it's 8/39 (20.5%) for 3.87pts (+9.9%)

...Class 6 male handicappers at odds of Evens to 12/1 are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+64.3% ROI) profit...

Tim's LTO winners are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 11.5pts (+60.6% ROI) this year alone, so he's clearly got into a rhythm of keeping in-form horses to repeat themselves, whilst since the start of 2014, his LTO winners with the CD logo next to their name are 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 34.4pts (+67.4% ROI) profit and these include...

  • over trips shorter than a mile : 6/32 (18.8%) for 34.5pts (+107.7%)
  • 6-15 days since last run : 9/26 (34.6%) for 53.9pts (+207.3%)
  • and male runners : 7/20 (35%) for 32.7pts (+93.3%)

...male runners racing over trips shorter than a mile, 6 ro 15 days after their last run/win are 4/10 (40% SR) for 43.5pts (+435% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG  which was widely available on Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 31st May

HAMILTON – MAY 31 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £65.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.3% units went through – 2/5* & 28/1

Race 2: 38.0% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 5/2 (2/1)

Race 3: 37.4% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 11/2 – 11/1 (2/1)

Race 4: 26.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 9/2 – 33/1

Race 5: 65.6% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 9/2

Race 6: 53.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 – 7/2* - 7/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Delft Dancer) & 5 (Big Ace)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Lexington Place) & 6 (Dapper Man)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Logi), 3 (Redrosezorro) & 6 (Epeius)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Jabbaar), 6 (Artful Rogue) & 4 (Corton Lad)

Leg 5 (4.00): 9 (Song Of Summer) & 2 (Lady Nathaniel)

Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Natajack), 6 (Quiet Moment) & 1 (Prancing Oscar)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.00: Mark Johnston (see favourite factor comment) saddles his Dutch Art filly DELFT DANCER who won at the second time of asking under soft conditions at Nottingham. Only BIG ACE is standing up against the projected favourite at the time of writing, with trainer Tim Easterby having saddled eleven winners during the last fortnight.  That said, Tim’s juvenile record on turf this season of 2/16 cannot live with Mark Johnston’s 14/48 but then again, few would struggle to get on terms with those two-year-old figures!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market scored having been touted up by yours truly after huge overnight support for the Mark Johnston inmate.

 

2.30: Five four-year-olds have won during the last decade though that said, the last of them prevailed back in 2013.  Four course winners contested last year’s event but we are down to two this time around with conditions seemingly good for LEXINGTON PLACE on this occasion.  DAPPER MAN appears to be the pick of the pair of four-year-olds and there might not be a great deal of daylight between the Placepot nominations at the jamstick.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last ten years though that said, eight of the other nine gold medallists have been returned in single figures.  Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame during the last eleven years.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

2/8—Jacob’s Pillow (good & good to soft))

1/1—Lexington Place (good to firm)

 

3.00: It’s worth having a look at the negative favourite figures below in case you are ready to plunge into one of the fancied horses in the field.  All five winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-7, though only EPEIUS appears to have a hope of winning the race in the face of stern opposition further up the handicap.  The chance or LOGI to go close is there for all to see, whilst the admirably consistent REDROSEZORRO demands respect.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via five renewals which have been won by horses returned at 28/1-18/1-10/1-10/1-8/1.

Record of the two course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Logi (good to firm)

1/4—Straightothepoint (good)

 

3.30: Keith Dalgleish saddles two of the remaining six runners with Trading Punches having been withdrawn.  Keith’s ‘course specialist’ CORTON LAD can rarely be overlooked at this venue, whilst ARTFUL ROGUE would not be winning out of turn for the team.  Either way, both horses are up against it with JABBAAR having been declared to run again following his Chester victory on Saturday.  A six pound penalty might not be enough to stop Iain Jardine’s Medicean gelding in his tracks.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

3/15—Corton Lad (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.00: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 and the Irish raider LADY NATHANIEL looks to have been well placed by canny trainer Ger Lyons.  That said, it might be as well to keep both feet on the ground as Ger’s record this side of the Irish Sea on the level stands at 5/93 down the years on turf.  Iain Jardine has definite claims of potentially saddling two successive winners on the card having declared SONG OF SUMMER, though Iain’s Choisir filly hails from the wrong end of the handicap according to the weight trends.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via six renewals at 4/1** & 5/4.  That said, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1 though conversely, four of the last five market leaders are still being sought by detectives in the area, having finished out with the washing.

 

4.30: Four-year-olds have won all three contests and the trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely NATAJACK, QUIET MOMENT and PRANCING OSCAR.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far by snaring gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 29th May

LEICESTER – MAY 29

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £20.50 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 90.2% units went through – 8/15* - 6/1 – 9/2

Race 2: 24.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 14/1 (2 x 5/2**)

Race 3: 48.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 5/2* - 7/1

Race 4: 79.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 8/1 – Evens*

Race 5: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 14/1

Race 6: 81.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/5* - 15/2 – 11/2

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Ballistic), 6 (Secret Venture) & 2 (Blyton)

Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Flight Of Fantasy), 7 (Infanta Isabella) & 9 (Peace And Plenty)

Leg 3 (2.50): 6 (Shovel It On), 4 (Star Of Zaam) & 5 (Straight Ash)

Leg 4 (3.20): 3 (Angel’s Glory) & 2 (Cavatina)

Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Fanaar) & 5 (Glorious Dane)

Leg 6 (4.20): 16 (Delph Crescent), 5 (I’m A Star) & 1 (Nibras Galaxy)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BALLISTIC is a general 6/1 chance across the board at the time of writing and given that he finished ‘only’ four lengths adrift of an Aidan O’Brien favourite (finished third) at Newmarket recently, Jim Crowley’s mount represents an each way (potential) bet to nothing investment, albeit to small stakes.  Murqaab looks too skinny from my viewpoint at the third time of asking, whereby I’ll add newcomers SECRET VENURE and BYLTON into the Placepot mix for openers.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Harry Dunlop’s runners (alongside brother Ed’s for that matter) but FLIGHT OF FANTASY should give us a reasonable run for our collective monies in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  It might be worth taking into account that Harry has only saddled more winners at Salisbury than he has managed at this venue down the years and with the ‘Dunlop’ name en masse strongly associated with the Wiltshire racecourse, Harry’s Leicester record is decent enough.  Others to consider from a win and place perspective include INFANTA ISABELLA and PEACE AND PLENTY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite prevailed.

Leicester record of the two course winners in the second event: 

1/2—Flight Of Fantasy (good to soft)

1/1—Bakht A Rowan (heavy)

 

2.50: All nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 which eliminates the top three horses in the handicap, two of which are well fancied according to the trade press. The trio which make most appeal from the other five options in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest are course winner SHOVEL IT ON, STAR OF ZAAM and STRAIGHT ASH.

Favourite factor: Two (6/4 & 5/2) favourites have prevailed via nine renewals to date, whilst seven of the nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Leicester record of the course winner in the field: 

1/3—Shovel It On (soft)

 

3.20: The trio of winners thus far have scored at 33/1, 10/1 & 9/2 with the prices getting bigger year on year!  Hoping those stats will not have put you off having a bet in the race, I’m offering up ANGEL’S GLORY to go very close in this grade/company.  It took a subsequent ‘Listed’ winner to stop the Invincible Spirit filly scoring at the first time of asking this term and it’s doubtful that there is a rival of that class in this field.  Andrea Atzeni will have (presumably) had the option of riding stable companion Elation, which leads yours truly to thinking that CAVATINA is the biggest threat to the selection this afternoon.  Lady Willpower receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor: Both of the (11/4 & 9/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s even money market scrambled home in third place to reduce the deficit.

 

3.50: The Hannon team think a great deal of GLORIOUS DANE, that much I know to be true but there might be a doubt about him beating FANAAR over six furlongs, with Fran Berry’s mount being an Olympic Glory colt.  Either way, I suggest you set the video up for this event to determine just how good Glorious Dane might be later in the the season.  FANNAR did little wrong at the first time of asking and looks something of a Placepot banker, whichever of the pair wins, unless Sir Michael Stoute’s Kingman colt ALNASHERAT proves to be something out of the ordinary.  I urge you to take note of that last sentence, given that Michael has saddled more juvenile winners at Leicester than anywhere else in this green and (blessedly still) pleasant land.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won via twelve renewals, whilst the relevant winners to date scored at a top price of 8/1.  Nine of the fourteen favourites have snared Placepot positions to date.

 

4.20: DELPH CRESCENT appeals at odds of 20/1 in a place this morning, fully expecting Richard Fahey’s raider to contract to around the 14/1 mark before too long as business gets fully under way.  Richard took his ratio to 3/4 at the track yesterday with a winner from the other end of the market, though Paul Hanagan’s mount is still expected to give a decent account at the odds on offer.  Others for the mix include I’M A STAR, NIBRAS GALAXY and IMMORTAL ROMANCE.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!