Posts

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

12.45 Southwell : Azari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 4/1 (Made all, quickened 3 lengths clear 3f out, ran on unchallenged to win by 7 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was only beaten by a short head last time out, when running over this very same course and distance 25 days ago, finishing 2 lengths clear of The Golden Cue, who went on to win over 6f last week.

That result took our boy's career figures to 6 wins and 4 places from 18 starts on the A/W with the 33.3% win strike rate generating level stakes profits of 43.9pts at an ROI of some 243.7%, all in handicaps. With regards to this contest, those figures include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 44.9pts (+264.1%) in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 27.3pts (+210.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 35.67pts (+396.3%) after a break of just 11-25 days
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 18.1pts (+362%) with the above three conditions all in play together

His suitability for the task ahead is backed up by the fact he and his fellow offspring of the sire Pastoral Pursuits (who himself had 6 wins and 2 places from 8 at 6/7 furlongs, including winning a Group 1) are 40 from 170 (23.5% SR) for 108.9pts (64.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 6/4 to 12/1 over 5f to a mile on Tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of 8-14 runners : 37/154 (24%) for 105.6pts (+68.6%)
  • in handicaps : 32/146 (21.9%) for 102.8pts (+70.4%)
  • competing for less than £4,000 : 34/135 (25.2%) for 110.4pts (+81.8%)
  • males : 28/125 (22.4%) for 88.5pts (+70.8%)
  • over the last 3yrs : 31/121 (25.6%) for 103.6pts (+85.6%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 30/111 (27%) for 84.8pts (+76.4%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 22/69 (31.9%) for 61.8pts (+89.6%)
  • Class 5 : 17/63 (27%) for 54.5pts (+86.5%)
  • over 6f : 13/59 (22%) for 46.8pts (+79.4%)
  • 5/6 yr olds : 17/55 (30.9%) for 41.4pts (+75.2%)
  • off a mark of 70-80 : 14/45 (31.1%) for 38.6pts (+85.8%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 5.50pm on Thursday evening, although those with an unrestricted Coral account could get an extra half point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.35 Haydock : Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG 7th at 9/1 (Led until 1st, led and not fluent next, headed 8th, mistake 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner... 

Why?

Our horse...

...is a 4yr old gelding who won over course and distance LTO at a higher grade 11 days ago and now comes here with a record that includes making the frame in 9 of 19 runs (47.4%) on this track, including winning four times (21% SR).

On the A/W in general, he has 5 wins and 6 places from 15 runs this year, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 11 races at this 7f trip, including 3 wins and a place from 7 efforts over course and distance and he has four wins and three places from the 8 contests that he was sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter.

Our trainer...

...is David Loughnane, whose 30-day record stands at 5 wins from 17 (29.4% SR) for 29.84pts (+175.9% ROI) profit and this includes...

  • on Tapeta : 5/11 (45.5%) for 35.84pts (+325.8%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 3/8 (37.5%) for 28.42pts (+355.3%)
  • and over 7f on Tapeta : 3/5 (60%) for 22.76pts (+455.1%)

Our jockey...

...Jason Watson has won 11 of 46 (23.9% SR) races here at Wolverhampton in the past nine months, generating level stakes profits of 37pts at an ROI of 80.4%, including...

  • at 5f to 8.5f : 11/38 (28.9%) for 45pts (+118.4%)
  • in hcps : 7/35 (20%) for 32.4pts (+92.4%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 10/27 (37%) for 16pts (+59.3%)
  • and at Class 5 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8pts (+47%)

And our horse's sire...

...is Art Connoisseur, whose offspring are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 42.9pts (+186.4% ROI) over 6/7 furlongs on Tapeta over the last two years, including...

  • in hcps : 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) - all males
  • at Wolves : 5/17 (29.4%) for 38.8pts (+228.1%) - all male handicappers
  • 4 yr olds are 3/7 (42.9%) for 20.7pts (+295%) - all males in Wolves hcps
  • and Class 5 male handicappers here at Wolves are 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 10.4pts (+173.2%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from pretty much everyone at 12.35am on Wednesday morning, but Bet365 were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out/away from my PC on Boxing Day afternoon, so Thursday's pick will appear later than usual on Wednesday night.

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

4.20 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 (Held up in mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd near finish, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 161 in his last three runs, all under today's jockey CJ McGovern, who once again claims 3lbs. The latest of those runs was a course and distance success here where our boy was more comfortable than a one length success would suggest, having been clear for the best part of the final furlong.

That win took his career stats to a point that includes the following...

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 25 over 6 furlongs (2w, 3pl from 9 on A/W)
  • 2 from 6 in a visor (2/3 on A/W)
  • 2 from 5 under CJ McGovern (2/3 on A/W)

His trainer, Julie Camacho, isn't exactly a household name outside of her own home and she's not what you'd call prolific, but she's quietly pretty good at getting certain horses to win certain races and although it would have been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, you might be surprised to hear/read that blindly backing all her handicappers over the last six years would have been a profitable venture!

Numerically, you'd be looking at 66 winners from 589 runners with the resultant 11.2% strike rate yielding 66.05pts profit at an ROI of 11.2%. Neither the SR nor the ROI are earth shattering on the face of it, but to make more than 10% from a "set & forget" approach is actually very good. To see which types of runners/races work best for Julie...

  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 63/554 (11.4%) for 71.7pts (+12.9%)
  • males are 55/485 (11.3%) for 115.2pts (+23.8%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 52/368 (14.1%) for 188.1pts (+51.1%)
  • Mondays to Thursdays : 36/314 (11.5%) for 50.3pts (+16%)
  • Class 5 : 26/247 (10.5%) for 69pts (+28%)
  • in 2018 : 21/136 (15.4%) for 17.9pts (+13.2%)
  • over 6f : 14/106 (13.2%) for 77pts (+72.6%)
  • November to February : 15/100 (15%) for 46.4pts (+46.4%)
  • on Mondays : 12/89 (13.5%) for 61.5pts (+69.1%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 18/84 (21.4%) for 88.2pts (+105%)
  • 6 yr olds are 13/80 (16.25%) for 26pts (+32.5%)
  • and those ridden by CJ McGovern are 3/10 (30%) for 17.7pts (+177%)

...and from the above... Since the start of 2013, Julie Camacho's male handicappers racing over trips shorter than a mile for a prize of less than £13,000 are 41 from 276 (14.9% SR) for profits of 225.3pts (+81.6% ROI), from which her 3-6 yr olds are 37/229 (16.2%) for 243.2pts (+106.2% ROI) : an angle worth noting and popping in your portfolio.

...and which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor & Unibet at 6.05pm on Sunday evening with an extra quarter of a point available from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

4.20 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 (Held up in mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd near finish, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 161 in his last three runs, all under today's jockey CJ McGovern, who once again claims 3lbs. The latest of those runs was a course and distance success here where our boy was more comfortable than a one length success would suggest, having been clear for the best part of the final furlong.

That win took his career stats to a point that includes the following...

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 25 over 6 furlongs (2w, 3pl from 9 on A/W)
  • 2 from 6 in a visor (2/3 on A/W)
  • 2 from 5 under CJ McGovern (2/3 on A/W)

His trainer, Julie Camacho, isn't exactly a household name outside of her own home and she's not what you'd call prolific, but she's quietly pretty good at getting certain horses to win certain races and although it would have been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, you might be surprised to hear/read that blindly backing all her handicappers over the last six years would have been a profitable venture!

Numerically, you'd be looking at 66 winners from 589 runners with the resultant 11.2% strike rate yielding 66.05pts profit at an ROI of 11.2%. Neither the SR nor the ROI are earth shattering on the face of it, but to make more than 10% from a "set & forget" approach is actually very good. To see which types of runners/races work best for Julie...

  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 63/554 (11.4%) for 71.7pts (+12.9%)
  • males are 55/485 (11.3%) for 115.2pts (+23.8%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 52/368 (14.1%) for 188.1pts (+51.1%)
  • Mondays to Thursdays : 36/314 (11.5%) for 50.3pts (+16%)
  • Class 5 : 26/247 (10.5%) for 69pts (+28%)
  • in 2018 : 21/136 (15.4%) for 17.9pts (+13.2%)
  • over 6f : 14/106 (13.2%) for 77pts (+72.6%)
  • November to February : 15/100 (15%) for 46.4pts (+46.4%)
  • on Mondays : 12/89 (13.5%) for 61.5pts (+69.1%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 18/84 (21.4%) for 88.2pts (+105%)
  • 6 yr olds are 13/80 (16.25%) for 26pts (+32.5%)
  • and those ridden by CJ McGovern are 3/10 (30%) for 17.7pts (+177%)

...and from the above... Since the start of 2013, Julie Camacho's male handicappers racing over trips shorter than a mile for a prize of less than £13,000 are 41 from 276 (14.9% SR) for profits of 225.3pts (+81.6% ROI), from which her 3-6 yr olds are 37/229 (16.2%) for 243.2pts (+106.2% ROI) : an angle worth noting and popping in your portfolio.

...and which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor & Unibet at 6.05pm on Sunday evening with an extra quarter of a point available from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She's actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners...

  • those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
  • females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
  • after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
  • and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
  • over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there's a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including...

  • in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
  • female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
  • female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
  • and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She's actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners...

  • those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
  • females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
  • after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
  • and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
  • over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there's a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including...

  • in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
  • female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
  • female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
  • and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Catterick : Scented Lily @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Held up behind, headway when hit 7th, driven to chase front pair before 2 out, soon ridden, never on terms, weakened last) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fume @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

I'm away for the weekend and I've got connectivity issues, so I'll keep this relatively brief, but rest assured the usual amount of research has gone into the pick!

Here we have a 2 yr old gelding (son of Frankel) who carries top weight (9st 9lbs off a mark of 72) who drops down in class after only being beaten by a neck in a Class 4, 7f Nursery at Kempton 10 days ago. The drop in class is a positive as is the booking of Oisin Murphy to take the ride, as Oisin is in good nick and has a decent record at this venue.

There are three main angles of interest with this horse/race today, starting with...

...this horse has never been to Wolverhampton or raced on Tapeta before but since the start of 2014, trainer Ralph Beckett's (who also does well here) 2/3 yr olds with 1-7 previous career runs are 52 from 205 (25.4% SR) for 70.7pts (+34.5% ROI) when trying a new A/W surface for the first time, including 16 from 62 (25.8%) for 19.6pts (+31.6%) here at Wolverhampton.

*

Then we have the fact that since the start of 2013, top weights in Wolverhampton Nursery races are 44 from 219 (20.1% SR) for 45.7pts (+20.9% ROI), from which those carrying 9st 7lbs or more are 39/170 (22.9%) for 68.7pts (+40.4%).

*

And finally, we know that both jockey and trainer are in decent form and both have fared well at this venue in recent years. Surprisingly, they have very rarely teamed up here at Wolverhampton, but overall when working together, they are 41 from 216 (19% SR) for 59.6pts (+27.6% ROI) since the start of 2014...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fume @ 7/2 BOG , prices offered by Bet365, BetVictor & BlackType respectively at 8.20pm on Friday evening. (extra half point is available from sky) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

12.40 Chepstow : Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led before 2nd, challenged before 2 out, stayed on strongly to win by 2.25 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Finoah @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery  for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner...

Why?

This 2 yr old gelding was a 3-lengths winner over 6 furlongs when last seen 24 days ago, whilst he was only 3 lengths adrift in a Listed contest two starts ago. His only previous visit to Wolverhampton resulted in him going down by just a short head to Sporting Chance, who has himself since won a 6f Listed race!

Since the start of 2016, trainer Tom Dascombe's 2 yr old have a decent record here on this track, winning 12 of 80 (15% SR) for 26.9pts (+33.6% ROI) but it seems that the ones to follow are those ridden by his first choice jockey Richard Kingscote, because of those 80 2yr olds, the trainer/jockey combination is 11 from 56 (19.6% SR) for 47.4pts (+84.7% ROI), including...

  • on horses rested for 11-45 days : 8/30 (26.7%) for 37.5pts (+125%)
  • in fields of 5-9 runners : 9/28 (32.1%) for 65.5pts (+234%)
  • over this 6f C&D : 5/21 (23.8%) for 17.94pts (+85.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.86pts

...and from the above...those racing in fields of 5-9 runners over 6f after a break of 11-45 days are 3/6 (50% SR) for 26.43pts (+440.5% ROI)...

Tom Dascombe also has a pretty impressive record of getting his LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 107 of 430 (24.9% SR) occasions since the start of 2012. A simple £20 stake on each of those runners would have netted a cool £3484 profit at a healthy ROI of some 40.5%! And that's from just blindly backing all his LTO winners.

Of course, we wouldn't necessarily suggest such an approach, so if you wanted fewer bets...

  • those rested for 11-60 days are 84/312 (26.9%) for 178.72pts (+57.3%)
  • those sent off shorter than 8/1 are 96/291 (33%) for 113.17pts (+38.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 75/280 (26.8%) for 175.11pts (+62.5%)
  • those racing at the same distance as LTO are 63/241 (26.1%) for 118.4pts (+49.1%)
  • those running on the A/W are 39/120 (32.5%) for 18.33pts (+15.3%)
  • 2yr olds are 29/118 (24.6%) for 94.64pts (+80.2%)
  • Class 4 runners are 29/102 (28.4%) for 39.66pts (+38.9%)
  • those racing over 6f are 28/95 (29.5%) for 71.32pts (+75.1%)
  • in the final quarter of the year (Oct-Dec) : 20/70 (28.6%) for 22.65pts (+32.4%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 17/42 (35.4%) for 24.76pts (+51.6%)
  • and on Tapeta : 10/33 (30.3%) for 12.79pts (+38.8%)

...and a composite from above?...Richard Kingscote on sub-8/1 runners racing over the same distance as an LTO win 11-60 days earlier = 30/79 (38% SR) for 39.4pts (+49.9% ROI) and this includes 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) here at Wolverhampton producing profits of 14.5pts (+181%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Finoah @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by at least 8 firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with BetBright for the few of you able to get on with them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

12.40 Southwell : Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden and every chance from over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a neck) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 2 Fillies Conditions Stakes for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £12291 to the winner... 

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively (by my standards anyway) short and hopefully very sweet today with a 5 yr old mare who has knocked on the door of late finishing third in each of her last three starts. In her defence, I should add that they were all at Listed Class and today she takes both a drop in class and trip back to her preferred 7f.

All 3 career wins to date are over 7 furlongs within 12-24 days of her last outing (15 days this time) and she has 1 win and 2 places from 3 Class 2 efforts whilst she also has a win and a place from 3 over this very course and distance.

Franny Norton rides her for the first time today, but he's having a good year on Mick Channon's horses when called upon. The partnership is 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) this year, including of relevance today...

  • 8 from 35 (22.9%) for 15.7pts (+44.9%) when sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) for 34.7pts (+119.7%) on horses rested for 11-45 days
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 52.5pts (+228.4%) over trips of 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 44.3pts (+233.1%) on female horses
  • 6 from 16 (37.5%) for 41.6pts (+259.9%) in non-handicap races
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+353.6%) on horses placed 3rd LTO
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 8.45pts (+169%) on the A/W
  • and 1 from 2 950%) for 2.09pts (+104.5%) here at Wolverhampton...

...and from the above...Norton + Channon + 2018 + females + 5/4 to 10/1 + 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs + 11-45 dslr = 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.42pts (+388.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.15 Hereford : Stepover @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Took keen hold, tracked leader until mistake 4th, shaken up after 3 out, driven after next, one pace and no impression, no extra flat) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old gelding who was beaten by just a length over 8.5f at this very track 5 days ago, he's quickly turned back out off the same mark but takes a drop in trip to a course and distance where he has won previously in the past off this mark of 55.

He's by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3-5 yr olds are 17/105 (16.2% SR) for 47.1pts (+44.9% ROI) in Class 6 A/W handicaps over 7-8 furlongs and whilst that's a nice little micro-system that continues to bear fruit, we've bigger fish to fry here, because...

...since the start of 2013 in UK A/W handicaps over 6 to 8.5f, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a defeat by 3 lengths or less LTO are 131 from 591 (22.2% SR) for 186.7pts (+31.6% ROI). Obviously I'm not saying you should follow them blindly, as 100 or so bets per year from one angle can be too much for many, but it is one you could use if you're not a jumps fan this winter.

If, however, like many you prefer to refine the selection further, there's an absolute myriad of logical, profitable angles (they should always be logical!) you could take. I'm "only" going to scratch the surface and give you 14 possible angles of attack! So, from our original 591 quick returners, in descending order of number of selections...

  • those running off the same mark (OR) as LTO : 118/507 (23.3%) for 176.7pts (+34.9%)
  • males are 104/449 (23.2%) for 158.8pts (+35.4%)
  • those running at the same class as LTO : 89/385 (23.1%) for 164.5pts (+42.7%)
  • Class 6 runners are 71/296 (24%) for 151.7pts (+51.3%)
  • those running on the same track as LTO : 55/237 (23.2%) for 105.4pts (+44.5%)
  • those last seen 5 days ago are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • here at Wolverhampton, it's 51/191 (26.7%) for 115.3pts (+60.4%)
  • those who ran here at Wolverhampton LTO are 44/188 (23.4%) for 91.5pts (+48.7%)
  • those racing over 7f are also 44/188 (23.4%) but for 58pts (+30.9%)
  • those racing on Tapeta are 37/142 (26.1%) for 77pts (+54.2%)
  • 5 yr olds are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • those dropping in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs are 26/90 (28.9%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • those who are running here at Wolverhampton and also did so LTO are 23/87 (26.4%) for 73.5pts (+84.4%)
  • and in October/November : 20/84 (23.8%) for 89.9pts (+107%)

Now, going back to the original 131/591 (22.2%) for 186.7pts (+31.6%), the above examples show how robust the strategy is, regardless of today's result. We've 14 (and there are many more) logical angles, all with a similar strike rate to the original and this is good for us systemites. The original 22.2% only has extremes of 21% and 28.9% in the examples and this shows the stability of the system.

Of course, there's far more variance in the ROI (22.3% to 107%), but this merely shows that the market hasn't yet cottoned on to some of the angles and I'll wrap up for the day by offering a composite from the above for those who want just a few bets each year at a higher SR/ROI than the original...

...as Class 6 males who also ran at Class 6 LTO 3-5 days earlier off the same mark at the same track = 25/67 (37.3% SR) for 86.8pts (+129.5% ROI) including 10 winners from 28 (35.7%) for 38pts (+135.7%) here at Wolverhampton, but these angles are a little more niche/contrived than the original examples!

...but they all point towards... a 1pt win bet on Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Sky Bet & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Monday evening (a price still kicking around at 9.00am Tuesday), although Bet365 were slightly better at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.45 Kempton : Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led 1f, prominent, outpaced over 3f out, no impression after) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding won at this track over 1m4f 27 days ago in a race that came exactly 27 days after he narrowly failed by a neck over the same course and distance, so he should be fresh enough today. Clifford Lee was on board for the win that day and he retains the ride with his 3lb claim today.

The horse, although a previous course winner, hasn't run over this track and trip before, but he does have a win at the distance elsewhere under his belt, so he should stay.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it pretty simple for you this morning...

Trainer Kevin Frost's LTO winners have repeated the feat on 7 of 17 occasions (41.2% SR) already this year and backing eac of them has been worth 14.9pts profit at an ROI of 32.4% and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 31.8pts (+227.1%)
  • at 6/1 and shorter : 6/8 (75%) for 16.73pts (+209.2%)
  • after a break of just 11-30 days : 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.27pts (+115.9%)
  • and on the A/W (all here at Wolverhampton actually) : 3/4 (75%) for 12.87pts (+321.8%)

And finally a quick note about jockey Clifford Lee, because for a jockey still riding with a claim, he has an exceptional record at this particular venue, winning 10 of 59 (17% SR) here since the start of 2017, recording level stakes profits of 89.3pts (+151.4% ROI) with a particular talent for winning in these low-grade contests, winning 7 of 21 (33.3%) at Class 6 for 52pts (+247.8% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by pretty much everyone at 12.10pm on Thursday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.05 Huntingdon : Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leading pair, went right 3rd, outpaced when hit 4 out, not fluent 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on to press for modest 2nd closing stages, no chance with winner) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Keeping it simple today with the inspiration from the pick coming mainly from our Horses for Courses report and also because I like the horse's chances at the prices available!

He's an 8 yr old gelding, who won here at Wolverhampton over 8.5 furlongs 34 days ago on what was just his fourth start for Donald McCain (better known for his NH exploits, of course!). The win took his record for the yard to 2 wins from 4 including 2 from 2 on the A/W, both on this track.

His overall record on the All-Weather is excellent, winning 7 of 21 (33.3% SR) for profits of 40.6pts (+193.5% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those 21 races have produced the following of note...

  • going left handed : 6/19 (31.6%) for 35.6pts (+187.5%)
  • wearing blinkers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 37.6pts (+221.4%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 : 6/15 940%) for 24.7pts (+164.8%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 7/14 (50%) for 47.6pts (+340.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 39.1pts (+325.9%)
  • at the age of 8 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+216.1%)
  • for Donald McCain : 2/2 (100%) for 19.2pts (+960%)
  • at Class 4 : 1/2 (50%) for 9.93pts (+496.5%)
  • over this 1.5 mile trip : 1/2 950%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%)
  • and over today's course and distance : 1/1 (100%) for 8.23pts (+411.5%)

And from the above, it's worth pointing out that when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 here at Wolverhampton (going left handed, of course!) whilst wearing blinkers in fields of 5 to 11 runners, Barnaby Brook has won 4 of 7 (57.1% SR) for 22.2pts profit at an ROI of 317.3%. Of the three he failed to win, he was the runner-up, beaten by a length, 1.25 lengths and 1.5 lengths : so always on the premises under those conditions...

...pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betvictor & SkyBet at 5.20pm on Thursday evening, whilst Bet365 were standouts at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG a poor 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leader, led 4f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Conkering Hero 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 5, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has won 4 of his 13 A/W races to date and comes here in great form having won each of the last three, culminating in a course and distance success here a week ago and of his 4/13 A/W record, he has the following...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 at the age of 4
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 in a visor
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 over 2m/2m½f
  • 2 wins from 4 in fields of 6/7 runners
  • 2 wins from 3 in July / August
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 with Finley Marsh in the saddle
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (that LTO win a week ago)

Trainer Joseph Tuite is 15 from 74 (20.3% SR) for 18.81pts (+25.4% ROI) with his Flat & A/W LTO winners since the start of 2015, including...

  • 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 7.07pts (+22.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 16.55pts (+57.1%) sent off shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 38.67pts (+133.3%) from June to August
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.89pts (+58.2%) in 2018
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.68pts (+72.3%) 6-10 days after their LTO win
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.15pts (+431.5%) over 1m6f and beyond
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.04pts (+113%) here at Wolverhampton

As I alluded earlier, 5lb claimer Finley Marsh is in the saddle today and so far this year, he is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+177.9% ROI) on the Tuite string of horses, from which he is...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.9pts (+199.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.9pts (+224.2%) when claiming his 5lb allowance
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 27.9pts (+253.7%) when claiming 5lbs in a handicap

And finally for this one (phew!)... Since the start of 2013 in Class 5 A/W contests, horses who won over course and distance last time out by 3 lengths or less at odds of 11/4 to 20/1 are 25 from 52 (48.1% SR) for 51.45pts (+98.9% ROI) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Conkering Hero 5/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 9.45pm on Thursday. with plenty of 9/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!