Tag Archive for: Wolverhampton racecourse

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/04/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.10 Naas
  • 3.55 Warwick
  • 4.15 Naas
  • 4.38 Clonmel
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...from which, I've selected the 8.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this looks pretty open for a lowly Class 6 contest, but that the winner might well come from the bottom end of the card, although only 6lbs separates the first eight of the nine runners, of whom Classic Speed and Crafter both won last time out.

Malacanne and Snooze Lane both won two starts ago and the latter made the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst top-weight Coolree was a runner-up on his last start and now wears blinkers for the first time in a bid to end a run of seven defeats. Light Up Our Stars and Zumaaty are also on long losing runs, having lost 12 and 10 on the bounce respectively. Both of these should benefit from a drop in class and three others (top-weight Coolree, The Pug & Graffiti) also all drop down from Class 5 here, whilst Graffiti will now carry a 7lb claimer effectively taking him back to his last winning mark (7 off 65 today vs 3 off 61 over course and distance in November).

All nine runners have been seen inside the last 7-33 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue for any of them and more than half (5) of the field have already scored over course and distance, but Coolree, The Pug and Classic Speed have yet to win over either track or trip, whilst Light Up Our Stars has won here over 7f and 1m½f, albeit not since October. and these course/distance wins (or lack of) lead us nicely into our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...which says that over the last couple of years, most of this field have performed reasonably well under today's conditions, although Coolree is 0 from 7 on the A/W. Light Up Our Stars is 3 from 21 here at Wolverhampton, but has won just 1 of 13 here over the last two years and has been beaten in all six efforts at similar trips. The Pug is also light on wins at track/trip, but has three wins in this grade. That said, none of them are in the red at Class 6, as Coolree drops to this level for the first time and we've no red at all from the bottom four in the weights.

From a place perspective, those races above highlight the consistency of Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug...

Of those four regular placers, Zumaaty, Crafter and Graffiti are drawn lowest of all nine runners here, but our draw analyser suggests that horses coming from the centre of the stalls might have more going for them in terms of assistance from the draw...

And if we look at how those 150+ races have been won, we're told that whilst there's not a huge pace bias, horses running just off the leaders or in mid-division have fared best...

...suggesting that leaders make the frame quite often, but appear to get overhauled mate on (only 30% of placers were winners), whilst prominent runners make the frame more often and win more often overall. Yet, it's the mid-division runners who convert more places (38.8%) into wins. The inference about hold-up horses is that they end up with too much work to do, which based on recent outings...

...might not great news for Crafter, nor Classic Speed, yet the collective pace/draw heat map from those previous Wolverhampton races would suggest that Classic Speed could do very well here along with The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars, who appear to be best suited...

Summary

The ones who caught the eye on form were Classic Speed and Crafter who both won last time out, along with Snooze Lane ( a win and a place from his last two) and Graffiti (placed twice in his last three), whilst it was Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug who were highlighted by Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map seems to favour Classic Speed, The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars and it is from these three categories that I'm going to choose.

Classic Speed, Crafter and The Pug are all mentioned twice there, but Graffiti is the one that would appear to tick all three boxes.

I'd no odds available at 4.15pm on Wednesday, but a tissue made up from the average odds predicted by Oddschecker, Timeform and the Racing Post looked like this...

Classic Speed 10/3
Crafter 4.17/1
Snooze Lane 4.67/1
Graffiti 6.83/1
Coolree 7.33/1
Malacanne 10.33/1
Zumaaty 11/1
Light Up Our Stars 16.67/1
The Pug 22.33/1

...and if that's anywhere near accurate, I'd be interested in Graffiti as a winner (E/W if he gets close to 8's) and a cheeky E/W punt on The Pug (especially as SkyBet are paying four places), but I'll need to check the prices later before doing anything, of course!



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Racing Insights, Friday 16/02/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a trio of tapeta tempters...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.10 Fakenham
  • 4.57 Dundalk
  • 5.02 Kelso
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...and it makes perfect sense to marry up the H4C report with the 'free' race list and have a look at one of the day's highest rated and second most valuable races, as Civil Law tackles nine rivals in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both featured horse Civil Law and Wadacre Gomez were runners-up after winning their penultimate outing and the latter has now won two of his last four, as has the lightly-raced Polling Day with only Al Rufaa from the rest of the field with a win inside their recent form line. I wouldn't be surprised if this quartet produced the winner.

Sadly for Wadacre Gomez, he's up a level here, as is Kojin despite seven defeats on the bounce where he hasn't beaten many runners home. Aikhal, Pleasant Man, Forca Timao and Southern Voyage all move the opposite direction taking a drop down from Class 2, where only Forca Timao made the frame.

Today will be the just second time in a handicap for both Polling Day and Duc de Morny, who will debut in cheekpieces today in a field short on course/distance form. Bottom weight Kojin won over this trip at Clonmel last September and Al Rufaa won here at Wolverhampton over 1f shorter (1m½f) three starts ago but is a class and 6lbs higher here. Only featured runner Civil Law has won over course and distance finishing 12117412 in his eight attempts to go with his 1 from 1 record here over 1m½f and he's understandably the standout from Instant Expert...

Kojin has no recent A/W form and was well beaten on his sole start at Dundalk back in October 2021. The above is fairly self-explanatory, of course with many of these having little relevant data and even the 5yr form doesn't give us much more to work with...

...although it does show Polling Day's entire career and further boost's Civil Law's numbers, whilst recent place form...

...further reiterates the strength of both Civil Law and Washacre Gomez who arrive here in good form, although they'll find themselves starting a fair way apart in stalls 1 and 9 of 10, although the draw hasn't seemed to have been a massive influence in the 220+ similar races here since 2018...

...which keeps both in the hunt, if nothing else. The pace stats for those races above suggests that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place, but anything further forward than a hold-up position has been fruitful...

...and if recent performances are anything to go by, Wadacre Gomez might well be able to control this race from the front...

...and from his high draw, setting the pace would appear to be his best chance of winning this...

Summary

Looks like a toss-up between Wadacre Gomez and Civil Law, based on form and the data above with the only other recent winner Al Rufaa the best of the rest. I'm running a little late this evening, so didn't see the market until just now (6.55pm) and this hasn't really surprised me...

...although I think I prefer Wadacre Gomez to win this one. He's down a pound after a 1.5 length defeat over course and distance, whilst Civil Law is up 2lbs from his last run on Boxing Day. He's also lost his 3lb claimer, but jockey Danny Tudhope could make some of that back.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 10/02/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of runners...

14-day form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.55 Newbury
  • 1.38 Uttoxeter
  • 2.05 Newbury
  • 2.30 Naas
  • 3.50 Newbury
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...but I'm actually going to ignore all of them for one reason or another (do ask, if you're interested) and have a look at what it a very highly rated A/W sprint contest on the evening card. It's the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard tapeta...

This looks like a wide open contest where you could make a case for pretty much all of them, but only One Night Stand comes here on the back of a win, having beaten Alligator Alley (6th) and Silky Wilkie (7th) by the best part of three lengths at Lingfield three weeks ago.

Kinta was a runner-up LTO having won her previous outing and Intervention has been placed second in each of his last three following four straight wins taking his mark from 74 to 92, but he's still in good nick, beaten by just a short head last time. Mondammej was also a runner-up o his last run, but hasn't won any of his last thirty outings! Silky Wilkie is also without a recent win, losing all ten races in the last eleven months.

Mondammej's bid for a first win in thirty-one races won't be helped by stepping up two classes, as does bottom weight Reigning Profit, whilst in-form Intervention is up one class today with Kinta dropping down a level after losing by just a neck in a Listed contest twelve weeks ago. Only Harry Brown (18 weeks) has been rested for the longer witht he other half-dozen all having raced in the last three weeks; Mondammej actually raced last Sunday up at Newcastle!

Despite his long losing run, he's a former course and distance winner, as are Alligator Alley and Reigning Profit, whilst Intervention and One Night Stand have both won over 6f on this track and Silky Wilkie, One Night Stand & Harry Brown have all won over 5f elsewhere.

Instant Expert says that Mondammej isn't the only one to have to failed win on the A/W in the last couple of years, as top-weight Silkie Wilkie has had a tough time too...

Most of these are on higher marks than their last win, but Harry brown is 2lbs lower and has gone well in a small number of outings. Reigning Profit's 2 from 4 on this track have all been over this 5f trip, which is interesting, as is the fact that a few of these have far better place records than you'd expect from their lack of wins above...

I probably wouldn't eliminate any runner on the back of those place stats, which doesn't really help me whittle the field down, but it does show how competitive the race could be.

The draw stats here would tend to suggest that those drawn in the lower half would have an advantage in terms of both winning and making the frame...

...which is good news for the three at the top of the card who also scored well on the Instant Expert place stats, but as we all know pace is often the key in 5f sprints and if we have a look at how those near 200 race above panned out, there's almost a linear advantage in getting away quickly...

So, if any of those drawn in the lower half of the stalls are fast starters, then they're going to be of huge interest here. Thankfully, we know how they've approached their last few races...

...and if they run true tot he above, then it looks like the in-form One Night Stand will burst out from stall 6 and try to get across Intervention and Silky Wilkie in stalls 2 and 3 and I think that these are probably the three I'm most interested in.

Summary

I like One Night Stand from the pace angle and the fact he has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Intervention and Silky Wilkie both stood out on Instant Expert, both are drawn low and both will be keen to get on with things. Of those two, Intervention is in the better form, is drawn slightly lower and has a higher pace score, so Intervention beats Silky Wilkie for me.

I also think that One Night Stand's form and early speed beats Silky Wilkie, so for me it's One Night Stand vs Intervention and there's really very little between them. Both ran well last time out, but One Night Stand won at this Class 2 and Intervention was a runner-up at Class 3 and that might just be the difference. It's a close call but I think I'd take the 11/2 (bet365 @ 5.50pm) One Night Stand to just edge the 5/1 (generally) Intervention out into a fourth consecutive silver medal. If fit, class-dropper and 4/1 fav Kinta is probably the biggest danger after a great run at Lingfield.



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Racing Insights, Friday 09/02/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.40 Kempton
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 2.20 Bangor
  • 3.20 Bangor
  • 4.50 Kempton

...I was going to see if I could find myself an E/W selection or two in the North Wales National, but that's fallen by the wayside now and I'll switch attention to Master of Combat from the H4C report and the 4.07 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

This looks a really competitive affair for a Class 4 handicap and plenty will fancy their chances, but only top-weight Wadacre Gomez won last time out and he's two from three. Featured runner Master of Combat (winner of 3 from 7), Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars all had top three finishes on their last outings.

Law Supreme has failed to win any of his five starts in the UK and has now lost 8 in a row, whilst Buxted Too, Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars are all on winless runs of nine, seven and seven races respectively and with Light Up Our Stars now stepping up in class, I'm not sure he's going to snap that cold spell.

Better news for the fast finishing pair Master of Combat and Ernie's Valentine, who both drop down a class as does Buxted Too who at five weeks since his last run, is actually the longest rested of the whole field. he has yet to win at either track or trip, but Master of Combat and Arcadian Nights are both course and distance winners, whilst Ernie's Valentine, the first-time tongue-tied Eagle Day and Light Up Our Stars have all already won over 1f shorter (1m½f) here at Wolverhampton and those course wins are highlighted below by Instant Expert...

Master of Combat's better form has come over slightly shorter trips, whilst Ernie's Valentine has struggled at both going/class. Arcadian Nights is a Class 5 runner in reality and his better Wolverhampton efforts are well over 2yrs ago. Hale End and Law Supreme both have full lines of red from a small sample size and Light Up Our Stars looks generally weak across the board, despite a 20% strike rate on standard going.

The place stats from those races above look like this...

...and if I was to split that in half, these would be the half dozen who look best on that data...

They're strung across the track in stalls 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 and 10, so if the draw stats show a lower half bias, that could be good for me. Let's check over the last 200 or so similar races...

Not exactly a low bias or much bias at all if truth be told, but those drawn highest have fared less well than the others, so that's not great for Ernie's Valentine from my half dozen and if recent performances are anything to go by, then he's a likely back marker in the early stages here...

...which is also far from ideal over a course and distance that has favoured the runners up with or just off the pace...

Summary

Based on the above and using my shortlisted half-dozen, the one I like best is the 5/1 (bet365 @ 5.25pm) Wadacre Gomez. He won last time out, is two from three, his yard is in good form, he scored well on IE and might well get a very easy/soft lead here. I also like featured horse Master of Combat, but his lack of early pace and the extended trip have dissuaded me from backing him to win this and at 7/1, he's no E/W play for me either, although he should make the frame.

Bet365 offer 4 places and 8/1 about Eagle Day, so that could well be a decent E/W bet, whilst I'm intrigued by the 20/1 offered about My Little Queen and I could well be tempted to have a couple of quid on that as an E/W option too. She's unlikely to win, but 20's looks far too big and the step up in trip should help her, as she has made the frame in half of her 16 races between 1m½f and 1m2f, winning three times.



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Racing Insights, Friday 19/01/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a pair of qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Market Rasen
  • 1.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.10 Lingfield
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...but sadly like racing in general, the free list has been decimated by the weather. That said, the H4C report race is the most valuable UK race to have survived the weather and it's the joint highest rated, so let's a look at the 2.15 Wolverhampton featuring Follow Your Heart, Beauty Choice and eight other runners in a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that the three heading the market at 2.45pm (Al Farabi, Johnny James & Follow Your Heart) would be the ones to best here, but the market isn't always right, nor are my initial thoughts, so let's dive into the card.

Our two featured runners are top and bottom weights here, rated some 17lbs apart, but it's two runners from the middle of the weights, Eden Storm and Wiseacre, who are our LTO winners today. Johnny James and Al Farabi were both runners-up, though, whilst Sir Maxi was third home. All ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings and only Wiseacre has been off the track for six weeks or longer and may well need the run after a 221 day absence.

The card has denoted the bottom three in the weights, Sir Maxi, How Impressive and Beauty Choice as fast finishers, but the latter of that trio steps up a class here. Wiseacre return from a long break to make a yard debut for Des Donovan and also has to contend with stepping up two classes, but both Follow Your Heart and The Turpinator drop two classes.

The well fancied Al Farabi makes a second handicap appearance here following a 1-length defeat on debut three weeks ago, but like all bar Johnny James and the returning Wiseacre, he has already won over today's trip, whilst our four previous Wolverhampton victors, Follow Your Heart, Visibility, Eden Storm and Beauty Choice, have all won over course and distance, giving us a good smattering of green on Instant Expert...

...where How Impressive looks less than impressive (sorry!). There are doubts about Visibility at this level (1 from 11), but despite a fair amount of red, no other real causes for concern. In fact, only Visibilty, Wiseacre and How Impressive fail to have any green from the going/class/course/distance stats and I'd probably rule them out now.

Over the last five years in similar races, those drawn low to middle (especially those in stalls 2 to 6) have fared best...

...whilst those races have rally suited those keen to 'get on with things' early...

...with low to mid-drawn prominent runners faring best...

If we then look at how these runners have tackled their last few races...

Summary

It looks like Johnny James and Al Farabi fit the pace/draw requirements best here. They're both drawn low and both will be keen to hit the front end early. Wiseacre may well attempt to challenge for the lead, but he'll have to come from stall 10 and probably won't be fit enough to maintain his effort.

Both Johnny James and Al Farabi are in great form and I'd expect them to be the first two home. I have them very evenly matched, so it could go either way. That said Johnny james would offer better value at 5/1 than Al Farabi's 5/2, so make of that what you will.

You can then make a case for several of these to make the frame, but as I prefer to take 8/1 or better for an E/W bet, it does rule a few out, but one of our featured horses, Beauty Choice, might be the one, as I think he's better than 10/1 might suggest.



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Racing Insights, Monday 15/01/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 12.50 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Punchestown
  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

It's not a great day of racing in the UK, with twenty-eight of the thirty races rated as Class 5 or 6 alongside a pair of Class 4's at Hereford. Of the three free UK racecards, the latter seems to have the greatest spread of pace profiles (more on this shortly), so we're off to the 4.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

None of these managed to win last time out, in fact none of them have won any of their last seven outings. Hawajes, Billy Mcgarry and Vivency have all lost nine in a row, but the other five are on longer losing runs that than, although Big Narstie was a runner-up (beaten by a neck) last week and Rebel Redemption was a runner-up beaten by 0.75 lengths on Boxing Day with Say Grace in third a further half length back.

The field all carry 9-9 here, which means that Big Narstie and Vivency (both rated 50) are best off at the weights, but the lowest-rated horses, Fragrance and Say Grace are only assessed as vbeing 6lbs worse.

All six raced at Class 6 last time out and all bar Fragrance (off 122 days ) and Vivency (199 days) have raced in the last four weeks. Merry Secret and Vivency have both already won over today's trip elsewhere and Rebel Redemption is a two-time victor over 6f on this track, but only the 5yr old mare Say Grace has won over course and distance, when landing a Class 6 seller 48 weeks ago.

As you'd expect, there's not much to see on the win side of Instant Expert...

...but Big Narstie probably shades it, whilst Say Grace looks the pick on the place stats...

In similar races here at Wolverhampton over the last five years, horses drawn in stalls 3 to 6 seem to have fared best from a draw perspective, whilst those racing prominently have fared best from the pace side of the equation.

And this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map for those races...

...which shows the importance of pace. We know that Say Grace, Billy Mcgarry, Big Narstie and Hawajes will occupy stalls 3 to 6, but who will race prominently? Well,that's where the featyre of the day, the Pace tab comes into its own, as we can show you at a glance how any field has approached its last four races and for this race, it looks like this...

...where Rebel Redemption looks like the front-runner with Say Grace and Billy Mcgarry the prominent chasers, although Big Narstie also has two prominent runs from his last three, incluing LTO which was the best run by any of these runners for a very long time!

We can put those runners into draw order as follows...

...which puts Hawajes as the weakest of the four occupying the best draw.

Summary

Big Narstie comes here off the best recent run of the field, he's likely to race prominently again and has a decent draw. He is however, an 11/10 shot at 7.30pm on Sunday evening and for a horse with little experience of Wolverhampton and on a long losing run, too short for my liking. You'd need deep pockets and plenty of resilience to make decent money from such a bet.

Don't get me wrong, he's probably the one to beat, but I'm more keen on taking the 17/2 about Say Grace on an E/W basis, I just feel that's better value for me, whilst the 10/1 offered by Bet365 about Billy Mcgarry might prove to be generous.



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Racing Insights, Friday 12/01/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.50 Huntingdon
  • 3.07 Sedgefield
  • 7.15 Dundalk
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

It's not the best race in the world (or even on the card!), but it makes sense to try and 'marry up' the daily free feature with the daily free cards, so we're going to look at Hollie Doyle's mount, English Spirit in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

ENGLISH SPIRIT ended an 8-race losing spell with a course and distance success here last time out a couple of months ago, taking his career A/W record to 3 wins from 4 places from 17. Only up 2lbs for the win

LUNARSCAPE is noted as being a fast finisher and now ears cheekpieces for the first time in what will be just her second outing for her current yard, having finished third here over a furlong longer just over a fortnight ago. Has placed 223 in her last three, but is winless in nine.

SURPRISE PICTURE has won over both 6f and 7f at this track, but is winless in seven since his 7f success back in September. Now 2lbs lower than that win, so could be dangerous.

ADMIRAL NELSON won at Newcastle (7f) two starts/a month ago after six indifferent defeats, but failed to back up that return to form when only 8th of 10 at Southwell three days before Christmas. Now goes beyond a mile for the first time in his 26-race career.

PEMBROKESHIRE won over 7f at Musselburgh in mid-October, but has only finished 7th of 10 and then 6th of 7 in two runs over a mile on Newcastle's tapeta track since. He has failed to make the frame in any of seven A/W runs to date and others look a better option.

MR BOSON is a five-race maiden (2 x flat, 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced since May of last year, when just 11th of 13, beaten by over 12 lengths a 1m handicap at Windsor. probably best left watched here.

ASGARD'S CAPTAIN is the other LTO winner in the pack having produced a career-best run to land a 7-runner handicap over 1m1f at Musselburgh on quick ground last August. He's up 14lbs here, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, this might be best left as a watching brief on his first run for new handler Dylan Cunha.

KINGWELL is our other C&D winner in the field, having scored here at Class 6 11 months ago. He's up in class today and hasn't won any of six since that C&D triumph last February. Was fourth of six over track and trip last time out and a similar run won't be good enough here either.

Past relevant form courtesy of Instant Expert looks like this...

...which paints a pretty bleak picture, doesn't it? I know these are Class 5/6 runners, so i wasn't expecting much, but featured horse English Spirit aside, only Surprise Picture makes much appeal, especially at 2lbs below his last win. I think we're going to need the place stats...

These do at least suggest that the field are pretty familiar with the task in hand and whilst they've not been prolific winners, they have made the frame on several occasions. My usual reaction to a graphic like the above would be to remove Admiral Nelson, Pembrokeshire and Mr Boson from my deliberations.

In previous past races, it seems that a higher draw has been more beneficial than a low one...

...which is great news for English Spirit but another blow for Admiral Nelson, who didn't fare too well on Instant Expert. If we then look at how those 300+ races above were won...

...we see that those setting the tempo do very well, but the stalking prominent runners have an even better record of picking the leaders off late on, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...suggest that Kingwell will be that pace-maker who could then become vulnerable to the likes of English Spirit and Mr Boson, whilst we should also remember that Lunarscape was noted as a fast finisher. She might well be left with too much work to do, but if things drop right, she'll be aiming for the places late on.

Summary

English Spirit has a great record here at Wolverhampton, as documented by the H4C report, he comes here off the back of a win and was the eye-catcher on Instant Expert. He seems to have the plum high draw and the ideal prominent running style to win here again and I'm struggling to see who might beat him. he currently (4.50pm) trades at 3/1, which is actually a little longer than I thought he might be, so that's good news.

Asgards Captain is the 5/2 fav and that seems a bit short for a horse making a yard debut up 14lb, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, so he's not for me. I suspect Lunarscape will go well here, having made the frame in each of her last three. She finishes well but might come from too far off the pace. She's good for the frame, I think but probably not the win.

I generally want 8/1 or bigger before I place an E/W bet and with that in mind, if i was to have one here, Surprise Picture might fit the bill, now that he's 2lbs lower than his last win here, but I wouldn't be digging too deep into my pockets for that one.

I'm at a family event from 2pm Friday, so no column for Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. Back Sunday with a preview of a race for Monday, so have a great weekend.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/12/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Smith and Gincident would be of the most obvious immediate interest to me. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.30 Lingfield
  • 1.50 Southwell
  • 3.35 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

I'll swerve Southwell for fear of a second successive abandonment for us and I'll head for the race starring Gincident, which is the highest rated of the races above. It is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

...and our ever informative cards show...

FORM : No LTO winners, but Woodstock City, Talis Evolvere and Urban Sprawl were placed, but the latter is winless in his recent form-line, as is Young Fire. Woodstock City, Queen of Ipanema, Gincident and Visibility have all won two from their last six.

CLASS : Talis Evolvere, Chantico and Young Fire all step up a class, whilst bottom-weight and fast-finishing Visibility is up two classes.

WHAT'S NEW? : Sceptic and Chantico both make debuts for their new yards and the former runs for the first time since wind surgery and the latter is denoted as a fast finisher. Woodstock City runs in handicap company for the first time and also makes a UK debut after 2 wins and 4 third places from ten runs in France.

LAST SEEN? : Most of these have had a run in the last four weeks, but Scepic has been off for eleven weeks and Woodstock City for three months. However, that's nothing compared to the layoffs of Chantico (227d) and Queen of Ipanema (242d) and this pair might well be feeling it in the closing stages if they go off quickly.

COURSE/DISTANCE WINS : Queen of Ipanema has won here over 1m1½f and 1m4f, but Gincident, Young Fire and Visibility are all former course and distance winners and all these course wins are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where, as you'd expect from The Shortlist, Gincident looks very well suited to the task in hand as do to a lesser extent, Sceptic and Queen of Ipanema. Young Fire looks like a blowout after plenty of attempts to get it right here, but Visibility looks interesting if not earth-shattering.

The corresponding place data from those races above looks like this...

...with only Young Fire and Visibility looking suspect. Young Fire does, of course, occupy stall 1, so let's check our Draw Analyser to see if that's usually a help or a hindrance...

Well, it appears that there's a very slight advantage to having a higher draw, but those drawn lowest make the frame more often, but again the advantage is very slight, so I'm going to say that none of these should lose this race purely because if which stall they emerge from.

The likelihood is that much will depend on how they emerge from those stalls and how they proceed to make their way home and our Pace Analyser suggests that you want to be on a prominent/leading runner...

...and the lack of obvious pace in this pack (based on their recent outings) might give an easy opening to Urban Sprawl...

He's not a front-runner by any means, of course, but regularly races prominently and regularly makes the frame by doing so.

Summary

Whilst winless in twelve (seven on the Flat followed by five on the A/W), Urban Sprawl's last five results (all on A/W) read 33243 and was a good third on his Wolverhampton debut last time out. He drops back a furlong here and I fancy him to make the frame again here.

That said, he's probably not the winner (he tends not to be) and that's more likely to be Talis Evolvere who ran weel to finish second over 7f here last time out, having led early on, but was outpaced in the later sprint for the line. The extra yardage should help here.

Unsurprisingly, these two head the market, but they're probably the best two in the race. My longshot who might outrun his odds is Young Fire, who looks better than an 18/1 shot and if a few falter, he could make the frame here.



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Racing insights, Thursday 23/11/23

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.55 Thurles
  • 3.05 Thurles
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

The last of that list is the highest-rated of the UK free races, so let's consider the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner, Sonnerie Power has left Roger Varian's yard in th elast five weeks and makes a debut for his new yard here, but is up two classes. Of his rivals, only Capital Theory was placed last time around and he's up one class here, as is bottom weight El Picador, who is one of five (along with Prydwen, Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent and Inuit) who have been beaten in at least their last seven races on the bounce.

Nolton Cross has been off the track the longest at 75 days, but that shouldn't really be an issue here and he's one of three (Prydwen and Capital Theory being the others) to have already won here at Wolverhampton, but only Zealandia had won over today's trip before.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, shows the field's success (or lack of) under similar conditions and we can show you Flat & A/W wins combined, as well as just the A/W data...

The obvious immediate standouts are Prydwen, Capital Theory and Nolton Cross, but they've hardly set the world on fire at Class 2 with just 2 combined wins from 31 efforts. Mind you, none of this field have particularly shone at this grade,but all bar Prydwen, Inuit, Sonnerie Power, El Picador and Oneforthegutter have won at Class 3.

When there's not much 'green' around on Instant Expert, I tend to then look at the place stats to see who might well run a decent race and be close to or in the frame, because one of those in the frame will go on to win! So here's the corresponding place data to those races above...

...where you could make a case for a handful of runners on Flat & A/W form, but the A/W data is considerably more clear-cut.

Somewhat unusually for a race of this distance, there is actually some semblance of a draw bias, although not huge with those drawn higher tending to do better from a win perspective...

...but this is somewhat tempered/conflicted by the PRB3 data which suggests the lower end of the draw tend to beat more rivals home...

...so maybe there's not a great deal to be made from the draw, I suppose it's down to how you interpret the data. What isn't in doubt, though, is the fact that front-runners really don't do very well over this type of contest...

...which, based on the evidence of the field's last few races, doesn't look too good for the likes of Capital Theory or Rhythmic Intent...

Summary

The two horses I like the most here, Chillingham and Capital Theory are the top two in the market at best prices of 9/2 and 5/1, but the former has little/no experience at trip/surface and the latter looks like failing to win by being the pace-maker. They're both more than capable of making the frame, but I'm not sure I want to put money on them and I think I'd like to focus on the others who made some appeal on Instant Expert ie Prydwen, Nolton Cross and Barenboim.

All three look like they could go well here and if I was pushed to nominate one as a potential winner, then it's be the 5/1 Nolton Cross who looks dangerous off his current mark. The other two might well need some luck in running, but at odds of around 9/1, they might well be of interest to E/W bettors.

PS No post tomorrow (Thursday for Friday) as I'm otherwise engaged, but back again with you on Friday.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/11/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Ffos Las
  • 2.30 Hexham
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners of potential interest...

Both the 'free' list and the TS report have a Class 2 race amongst them, but the A/W option has more runners than the chase, so we're off to the 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W sprint handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Chipstead is the only one of the field to have made the frame last time out, having finished third of eight on heavy ground at Windsor a month ago. He's also the only entire horse in the filed, since Clarendon House has been gelded since his last run twenty weeks ago, but we do have a 3 yr old filly in the shape of Glorious Angel.

Despite no LTO winner, only Clarendon House, May Sonic and Mondammej come here on a string of seven or more consecutive defeats (7, 7, and 27 to be precise) and the latter won't be helped by stepping up a class, as does Alligator Alley.

Bottom weight Strong Johnson actually steps up two classes, but the filly, Glorious Angel, ran in a Listed race at Newcastle recently after three successive runner-up finishes at 5f and she's now down in trip and class here.

We know that Clarendon House might need a run after twenty weeks off and Rocket Rodney's four month break might also pose problems, but the rest of the field have raced in the last month with Strong Johnson spotted at Newcastle last Friday!

All nine runners have won at least once over today's trip and both Alligator Alley and Mondammej are former course and distance winners. In fact, the latter won this race two years ago, but hasn't won any of twenty-seven races since, which is why Instant Expert below shows him racing off a mark 11lbs lower than his last win...

...where the two former C&D winners, Alligator Alley & Mondammej look best suited, but don't forget to factor in the latter's recent poor form. There's no data above for the two returning from a break, as both Clarendon House and Rocket Rodney are making A/W debuts here. The subsequent pace stats from those races above again paint Mondammej in a favourable light...

...and it's worth noting that although his last win was 2 days shy of 2 years ago, his 2-year place stats look like this...

...suggesting that whilst he'd be a surprising winner, he could well make the frame. His cause, however, won't be helped by being drawn in stall 8...

...over a course and distance where the first five stalls seem to be the place to be...

That said, a wide draw isn't necessarily a lost cause, if he can get out quickly...

...and this is backed up by our pace/draw heat map. which also offers a little surprise with the draw...

Sadly for Mondammej, that's where the good news quickly starts and finishes, as his last four outings suggest that he's going to be well down the pecking order for early pace...

...and that we should be looking at the top end of this chart for our 'most likelys' and if we put them in draw order, look at their last three runs and place them onto the heat map, we get...

...with the feeling that Chipstead gets to the bend first followed by Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley hoping the bend keeps him ahead of Clarendon House.

Summary

Based on the pace/draw situation, the two I like most here are Chipstead and Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley looking a danger to them. The latter was the pick of the pack on Instant Expert, too, so these are my shortlisted three for the frame.

Had this not been Chipstead's tapeta debut, then I'd have been backing him at 13/2 (Hills, only price on offer at 4.15pm) and that's a little shorter than I normally place E/W bets at, but your cutoff might be different. I think he holds the filly, Glorious Angel, at bay but she's not a bad bet for the places and at 7/1, you could be tempted there too.

As for Alligator Alley, he ran better than the bare result suggested at Newcastle recently, he's a former course and distance winner and has won four of his last seven on tapeta making him my pick here. his 4/1 ticket isn't massively generous, but probably worth taking.



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Racing Insights, Friday 27/10/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier, who'll hope to be on the right track (sorry!)...

...this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 3.55 Cheltenham
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 5.05 Cheltenham
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Wolverhampton

My sole H4C report qualifier looks like being involved in a fairly competitive affair despite the low standard, so let's take a look at On The Right Track and the 7.15 Wolverhampton. It's a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners here, but featured runner On The Right Track has made the frame in three of his last four and is the only runner to have won any of their last seven starts (aside from Ezmerellda, who has only raced five times so far, failing to place in any). Elsewhere Doublethetrouble and Lord Torranga have been knocking on the door with a string of runner-up finishes, whilst Zivaniya also made the frame on his last outing.

He now drops down from Class 5, as do On The Right Track, Haven Lady and Eagle's Realm with bottom-weight Northern Rose dropping two classes for her second run in a handicap. She's one of four (Zivaniya, Ezmerellda & Corsican Caper being the other) three year olds in the field and they all receive a 7lb weight allowance for their age.

The majority of the field are wearing some form of headgear/equipment, but this is a first time in cheekpieces for the in-form Lord Torranaga who, like On The Right Track and Kittens Dream, is a former Wolverhampton winner with the latter being our only previous course and distance winner, although Lord Torranaga has won over 1m6f at Catterick.

No excuses for fitness today, as all have had at least two weeks rest, but none should be rusty either, as they've all raced in the last four weeks, whilst relative past form (courtesy of Instant Expert, of course) looks like this...

...which On The Track aside is a pretty bleak picture. Kittens Dream and Havens Lady have had the most attempts to put numbers on the board, but both seem totally unsuited to this task ahead, so I'm crossing their names off straightaway from a win perspective. The above graphic pretty much speaks for it self, but I should add that despite a 0 from 8 record at Class 6 on the A/W, Lord Torranaga has three wins and two further places from nine at Class 5 and as you'll now see below, has a 50% place strike rate in those eight Class 6 defeats...

...and he now looks a viable rival to On The Right Track. They'll race fairly close together in stalls 6 and 8 of 10 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn highest in the past...

..but those races haven't been particularly kind to front-runners...

...which looks like being another blow to Haven Lady's chances if the last three races are anything to go by...

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the draw stats, the two I'd want to be with would be On The Right Track, who is proven at this venue, and Lord Torranaga who has been banging on the door for some time. The pace stats have done little to dissuade me from this position and I'm sticking with those two.

I suspect there'll be very little between them and I'd expect both to be priced around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark in a fairly open market and if pushed to pick a winner, I'm going to marginally side with my H4C report runner On the Right Track.

Without any prices to go at, it's hard to suggest an E/W punt, but I'd expect Doublethetrouble to continue his recent fine form and be the main danger to the other two.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 07/09/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Salisbury
  • 5.35 Carlisle
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton
  • 5.55 Clonmel
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm going to do things in a slightly different order today and I've no idea where it will take me/us! The whole premise of my column is that I put my actions into print in real time and sometimes I end up with nothing. This is perfectly fine, because if there's no bet you like, place no bet and move on!

The highest rated of the four UK races above is the 7.15 Wolverhampton and it also has the most Instant Expert data. The race itself is race 32 of this year's Racing League and it's an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta and here's how the place data for Instant Expert looks for this race...

...where based on overall form, this trio catch the eye most...

...not withstanding that the first of the three has yet to win on the A/W, but has made the frame in all four career starts, whilst the other two are higher in the weights than their last A/W successes, but let's look at the whole card now...

We have no LTO winners here, but all bar Koy Roy and Cry Havoc have a win in their recent form line although both were placed on their latest outings. What's The Story has made the frame in each of his last three and Farasi Lane, Parlando were also placed last time out. There's no real standout on form and we've a real lack of past course/distance success too.

The field have 2 wins and 3 further places from 20 visits to Wolverhampton and have made the frame in 61 of 157 (38.9%) contests over 1m to 1m1f, winning 21 times at a rate of just 13.4, but Harswell Duke did win over this trip at Nottingham on soft ground in October of last year and Young Fire was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in March.

Parlando last raced a week ago and United Front was seen ten days back, but the remainder have all had two to six weeks rest since their last efforts, from which five are now racing at a different class with Lir Speciale & United Front dropping down a level from Class 2 with Young Fire and the sole female, Cry Havoc both up one class. Night Arc is up two classes after finishing seventh at Newmarket shortly after winning a Class 4 contest, so I'm not sure what to make of him, other than to say he's inconsistent?

We've seen the place data from Instant Expert, but to complete that picture, here's the win percentages...

Not a lot to crow about there, but Lir Speciale is proven in this grade, whilst Hafeet Alain looks generally weak in this context. What's The Story and Young Fire have struggled on standard going with the latter also not faring too well at Class 3, although the former's place stats are far better. Perhaps he's more of a placer than a winner?

The draw has placed the IE weak-looking Hafeet Alain and the double-class riser Night Arc at opposite ends of the stalls, but the general draw data for similar handicaps over the last five years suggests there's not a great deal to be gained from stalls positions...

...although the actually stall-by-stall data & the PRB3 figures do say that those drawn higher than stall nine have tended to struggle and that makes sense, having to travel wider and/or further...

...so that might affect United Front's chances from stall ten. His best bet here in that case is to try and get out sharpish and keep in touch with the pack, as those races above haven't exactly been kind to hold-up horses...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Cry Havoc & Young Fire based on recent evidence...

If I was to discount that pair from my list of potential winners, based on pace alone and then remove United Front & Night Arc based on the draw, that leaves me with seven. Hafeet Alain looked weakest on Instant Expert and Cry Havoc is winless in seven. Although What's the Story has made the frame in half of his ten A/W starts, he has won just once, way back in June 2018 and has lost eight on the bounce since then, of which five were on tapeta.

Summary

I'm not saying that the discards can't make the frame, but I've enough reasons not to back any of them for the win, leaving just Lir Royale, Koy Koy, Harswell Duke, Farasi Lane and Parlando as potential winners.

And of those, Lir Speciale would be my pick. His A/W record reads 23311, of which he is 311 at Class 3 and although he's up in trip here, the reports from his last two outings/wins on the A/W read...pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well inside final furlong and good headway on inside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on well so the trip shouldn't necessarily be an issue here.

Hills are paying four places on this one and at 8/1, he'd be an ideal E/W bet if you're not entirely convinced about his win credentials. 8/1 is my general/nominal cut-off point for E/W bets, so that would currently discount the 5/1 What's The Story and the 6/1 United Front from my original 'trio of interest', but I'm happy to take the 9/1 about Parlando.

Others of possible interest would include Farasi Lane at 8/1 and Koy Koy at 12's.

 



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Racing Insights, Monday 17/07/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.35 Ayr
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

I don't really do Irish racing, as most of you know and the Ayr race is a 7-runner novice event where the field of 2 yr olds have a total of ten races between them. This hardly builds up a reliable pace profile, so we're off to the 8.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

The indications from Bet365 at 6pm Sunday were that it was a three-horse race (other bookies say four)...

...but if one was to fail we might have a nicely-priced E/W prospect, especially with most firms paying four places so let's see...

At 100/1 in places, I'm just tempted to discard Thunder Sun from the off, but let's crack on with a field with no LTO winners, although Bill Plumb is two from three and Rogue de Vega has a gold and two silvers from hios three career starts. Caesar's Pearl won two starts ago, but we're a bit light of decent form here and Araifjan's chances of ending a 12-race cold spell won't be helped by a step up in class.

Mohareb, Blue Flame, Sergeant Pep and rank outsider Thunder Flame all step down a class here, whilst it's a double drop for top weight Belle Fourche in a race that sees the in-form Rogue de Vega make a handicap debut.

Blue Flame has already won here at Wolverhampton over 7f, whilst Belle Fourche, Bill Plumb, Sergeant Pep, Murbih and Araifjan are former course and distance winners. Of the other half dozen runners, Mohareb, Asadjumeirah and Caesar's Pearl have won over this trip on another track.

The top two on the card, Belle Fourche & Mohareb return from breaks of 231 & 128 days respectively. Bill Plumb has been off for almost ten weeks, but the others have all been in action in the last eight weeks with Asadjumeirah and Erosion Risk having raced this month already.

We have four three year olds in the field in the shape of Rogue de Vega, Sergeant Pep, Caesar's pearl and Erosion Risk and they get a 5lb weight allowance, which should be very useful especially for the in-form handicap debutant Rogue de Vega.

Instant Expert's lowdown on this field's past A/W records show seven former standard going winners and five Class 5 winners as well as the course and distance winners from earlier. Changing the criteria will also give you three Class 3 winners and three to have scored at Class 4...

...and it's definitely the top half of the card that catches the eye, aside from Mohareb. He's already a no from me, based on the above, as are Araifjan & Erosion Risk and if we did exclude Thunder Sun, we're left with eight of our original twelve. We've omitted runners from stalls 2, 3, 4 and 12, so if Sod's Law is anything to go by, the following draw stats will tell me to look for low drawn runners!

I've gone back as far as I needed to get at least 100 past similar contests and thankfully getting a low draw isn't the be all and end all, but high draws can be a struggle...

If we look at the PRB3 stats, then we're advised that the first seven stalls are the place to be...

...and then we need to look at our daily feature pace! Those 110+ races above have tended to go to those displaying good early pace...

Leaders win more than their fair share of contests here, but the data above suggests that prominent runners rein them in late on. Now if Instant Expert wants us to look at horses with lower saddle cloth numbers (1-7?) and those drawn 1 to 7, that's only Bill Plumb and Rogue de Vega. Hmmm, what if either of those have a pace score of around 3.00 or higher? Let's see...

Summary

It's Rogue de Vega for me here and 5/1 looks more than fair about an unexposed, in-form three year old receiving a weight allowance. He's drawn well and has a good pace profile and although only three races in, has yet to run a bad one.

Of the others at the top of the market, I do like Bill Plumb for similar reasons to the selection, but I don't like him quite as much and 4/1 is too short for an E/W bet. Sergeant Pep looks too long at 10's with bet365 and would be a decent E/W pick at that price, but I'm not really keen on anything else.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/03/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple of 'possibles' to consider in the Black Country. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.15 Hexham
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

...and although it's not a great race, it does make sense to consider the chances of a  horse, On The Right Track, in a 'free race' ie the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

None of these come here in any great form, although Belle of Annandale & Haven Lady were both runners-up on their last outings, whilst the latter along with Hashtagmetoo are the only pair to have won any of their last five and they seem to be the most consistent of this bunch.

All bar Iron Heart (down two classes) and This One's For Fred (down one) were in Class 6 action last time around and seven of the field have raced ion the last four weeks. The exceptions to this are Belle of Annandale & The Shortlist horse On The Right Track who now return from breaks of 173 and 239 days respectively and may well need the run.

Kentucky Kingdom, This One's For Fred and Tio Mio are former course winners (at 1m1½f, 1m6f & 1m1½f), whilst Haven Lady and Iron Heart have previous wins over a mile and a half. Belle of Annandale has won at neither track nor trip, but Hashtagmetoo, Starfighter and On The Right Track are all course and distance winners.

Instant Expert also tells us that all bar Belle of Annandale have won on standard A/W and that all bar Belle of Annandale and Iron Heart have won a Class 6 A/W contest...

On the immediate face of it, The Shortlist horse On The Right Track is the eyecatcher, but that optimism has to be tempered by the fact that he hasn't won a race for almost 18 months, although he's now weighted to go well. Obvious concerns surface about Haven Lady, Starfighter, This One's For Fred & Tio Mio on the going, This One's For Fred on Class and both Hashtagmetoo & Starfighter on the trip, but as there's a lack of green above, let's look at place form...

...where again On The Right Track looks best placed but with the same caveats as before. This One's For Fred looks the weakest here and I think we'd probably be best focusing on those with any green on Going, Class, Course and/or Distance, so that's not good for Belle of Annandale (again), Haven lady or Iron Heart.

Other than not getting hampered or cut-up on the bends, there shouldn't really be a massive draw bias in a 9-runner contest over a mile and a half, but let's check the actual stats...

...and they do seem to back up my theory, that aside from a slight disadvantage in the lower quarter of the draw, there shouldn't be too much in it and it's a similar story with pace. Hold-up horses have struggled to make up ground here, but thise racing any further forward all seem to have a decent enough chance of getting involved...

...which based on recent outings...

...wouldn't bode well for the likes of Kentucky Kingdom, Tio Mio or Iron heart and if we use a three-race sample size and arrange the field in draw order using those draw/pace stats abo, we can generate this heatmap...

Summary

It's Hashtagmetoo here for me. He's running consistently well, scores well on Instant Expert for places, is well drawn and has a good pace profile. He won over course and distance earlier this month and looks the most likely to me.

No prices out as of 3.10pm Monday, so I'll check back in later and update and also add an E/W option, if there's a viable price.

Update, Hashtagmetoo opened up at 15/2 with Skybet & Hills not long after 5pm, so he's the E/W pick for me.

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 17/03/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Wolverhampton
  • 5.50 Down Royal
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...so I suppose it makes sense to try and assess the chances of Johnny Boom in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table as both won last time out and they are two from three and three from six respectively. Captain Attridge is a career 0 from 5, but the rest of the field have all won at least one of their last six outings.

The entire field either ran a this class or higher last time around, so, all should used to the standard, especially Poetic Force, Baby Steps & Harbour Vision who drop from Class 4 and Enough Already whose last race was a Class 3 affair.

Captain Attridge has been off the track since 1st October 2021 and is highly likely to need the run on his yard/UK/handicap debut. Of his rivals, Milltown Star's 55-day break is the longest and Harbour Vision, Poetic Force & Johnny Boom all raced less than a fortnight ago.

Enough Already and the maiden Captain Attridge are the two yet to win here at Wolverhampton and of the nine course winners, five (Arcadian Nights, Tiger Beetle, H4C horse Johnny Boom, Harbour Vision & Mafia Power) are course and distance winners.

All bar Captain Attridge have won on standard going A/W tracks with varying degrees of success and we've half a dozen previous Class 5 A/W winners, according to Instant Expert...

One's focus automatically falls on the green blocks and it's pretty safe to say that Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force, Tiger Beetle and Johnny Boom have performed best under these conditions previously, whilst I have concerns over Enough Already (going), Baby Steps (going/distance), Johnny Boom (class), Harbour Vision (class/course), Mafia Power (going/class/distance), English Spirit (going) and Captain Attridge (layoff and generally!).

In fact, I'd not say those I have concerns about couldn't/wouldn't make the frame, but I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle, who will emerge from stalls 2, 5, 9 & 11, so a good spread across the track. I've omitted Johnny Boom from my list of possible winners, because he is 6 from 12 at Class 6 and 0 from 16 any higher, including 0 from 11 at Class 5. He has made the frame in three of six Class 5 A/W handicaps here though, so could be one for minor money.

My quartet of potential winners are spread across the track for a race that has, at first glance, benefited those drawn centrally...

...but the stall by stall analysis doesn't entirely back this up, so I wouldn't be too concerned about where my horse was drawn and I'd be more interested in race tactics. And we look against at those 1600+ runners above, the key here is not to dwell early and get left behind...

Sitting just behind the pacemaker(s) is the preferred option, but again like the draw, you'd not be too worried how your horse ran and from which stall, as long as they weren't held up and this is how this field have approached their most recent races...

Those pace scores are probably another nail in the coffin for Johnny Boom winning here and you'd want Poetic Force to run like he did LTO rather than the three previous races. The thing about PF is that he runs off the same mark as a win LTO, even though he drops in class and that should be enough to overcome any pace bias. The fact he's drawn in 11 might also suggest he'd have to tuck in anyway.

Summary

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table and after looking at Instant Expert, I said that I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle and to be true to my word, I think this is a contest between Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force.

Both are in good form, both scored well on Instant Expert, neither are going to set the pace, although Arcadian Nights does have a better pace profile. Poetic Force, however, runs off an unchanged mark from his LTO win whilst dropping in class whilst Arcadian Nights is up 5lbs for a win at this level and some 9lbs higher than his C&D win here three starts ago and the weight/class might just be the difference.

So, it's marginally Poetic Force over Arcadian Nights (reverse forecast, perhaps?) for me with the other place going to any of a half dozen others, about whom I'll return to make a judgement once I've seen the market open.



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