Posts

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, never near leaders, beaten by 6 lengths). Tough week so far, but we crack on.

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W  handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, as is generally the case, the racecard is our first port of call...

This suggests that aside from LTO, this horse has tended to be there or thereabouts (he doesn't win enough to be honest) and will be ridden by an excellent jockey with a good record on this track. What the above doesn't say is that his last four races haven't been on Tapeta and that he has made the frame twice in three starts here at Wolverhampton.

He's only ever won one race from 27 efforts so far, making the frame in just four other starts, but has one win and one place from two runs under today's jockey, so let's deal with that JC1 icon first before I look at other supporting data. We're told that Hollie Doyle is 23 from 115 (20% SR) here over the last year and she arrives here today in scintillating form after finishes of 122111 here at this venue yesterday.

Of that 23/115 yearly record here, Hollie has 11 wins from 55 (20% SR) at Class 6 and 10 wins from 38 (26.3% SR) over trips of 5/6 furlongs, suggesting she's a good judge of pace on lower grade races on a surface not all jockeys "get".

A quick look at the Geegeez speed ratings is self-explanatory too...

As, hopefully, is the pace/draw heat map...

And now I want to wrap this up by returning to my earlier suggestion that this horse might run better back at Wolverhampton after recent efforts on turf and there's some evidence that would be the case via his breeding, as offspring of the sire Camacho have fared better returning to the Tapeta after running elsewhere. This is probably better explained pictorially, so my saved micro-system is...

And of that 14/53 record, Camacho's offspring are...

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 30.4pts (+95%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 7/25 (28%) for 24.27pts (+97.1%) at Class 6
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 16.6pts (+75.5%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 22.6pts (+141.3%) in 3 yr old races
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.46pts (+180.4%) over 6f
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) within 10 days of their last run

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps here at Wolverhampton over 5-7 furlongs, they are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.34pts (+131% ROI), including 3 from 7 (42.9%) in 3yo contests and 3/7 (42.9%) at 1-10 dslr...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

3.10 Southwell : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1 (Mid-division, took keen hold, mistake 1st, lost place and not fluent 6th, no impression 2 out).

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Claiming Stakes for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we'll start with the racecard that I've expanded to show my two angles from the parameters I have set in the report suite...

This shows a 10 yr old gelding in prime form having won his last three outings, the latest of which was a Class 4, 6f contest here at Wolverhampton 20 days ago. Most of you know this already, as we backed him for SotD that day too (see here, as much of that piece is still very valid).

He now drops down 2 classes to run in this claimer and I think he should have too much for a group of rivals who look to be (a) out of form, (b) in need of a run or (c) both!

The reports and icons tell us that trainer Michael Herrington has done well at this venue for a number of years (TC5), especially thanks to this horse, jockey and horse/jockey combo, so let's take a quick look at the numbers, starting with the horse...

...whose 7 from 24 here at Wolverhampton includes...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 25.54pts (at BFSP, of course) at an ROI of 170.2%
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.8%) at 5/1 and shorter
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.03pts (+158.6%) in fields of 6-10 runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 17.88pts (+446.9%) after a win LTO
  • 3/3 (100%) for 17.86pts (+595.3%) with Tom Eaves in the saddle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.17pts (+239%) at Class 6
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) in claimers

...whilst in fields of 6-10 runners at 5/1 or shorter competing for less than £5k, Steelriver is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 10.4pts (+173.3% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.

Next we turn our attention to the trainer and his recent record at this venue...

...and these include...

  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 50.2pts (+86.6%) at odds of evens to 11/1
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 48.2pts (+65.1%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 44.3pts (+130.3%) at Class 6
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 54.3pts (+452.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 6/23 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+69.1%) with Tom Eaves doing the steering

...whilst LTO winners sent off shorter than 7/1 in Class 6 contests are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 18.9pts (+472.6% ROI)

And finally, back to the trainer/jockey combo, which I've just said was standing at 6 wins from 23 since the start of 2018. Those figures include of relevance today...

  • 3 winners from 10 (30%) for 8.03pts (+80.3%) at Class 6
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 21.96pts (+732.1%) on LTO winners

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available in several places at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.40 Lingfield : Almqvist @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Raced wide chasing leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong) : one of a couple of poor Johnston runners today.

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

It looks like a day of poor racing to me and the majority of runners on my overnight shortlist have failed on the final check ie price/value, so we're going with one that might need a bit of luck but is a far bigger price than his record/stats suggest he should be, but let's see.

We start off with the racecard as usual which shows that this 10 yr old gelding is returning to the track after just over three months' rest to attempt to complete a hat-trick (all here at Wolverhampton by the way)...

...you'll also see that he has a good record here at Wolverhampton (Horses for Courses) and that his trainer has also done well here (C5 icon and also one of my Wolverhampton trainers to look out for : the "Wolv" angle), so let's assess those separately.

We start off with Steelriver's record here at Wolverhampton, as he transforms a career record of...

...into the following here at Wolverhampton...

And of those 23 previous runs here, he is...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+43.9% ROI) for trainer Michael Herrington (more on him very shortly)
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+43.9% ROI) in races worth less than £8k
  • 5/13 (41.7%) for 9.11pts (+75.9%) since the start of 2019
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 5.97pts (+66.3%) in fields of 10/11 runners
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.19pts (+119.8%) stepping up in class
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.24pts (+141.5%) after a win LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 4.23pts (+211.5%) under jockey Tom Eaves
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.8pts (+60%) at Class 4

And now to the trainer Michael Herrington's record at Wolverhampton, where in handicaps he has achieved the following...

And of those 96 handicappers to run here in the past almost 4.5 years...

  • those aged 5 or older are 14/63 (22.2%) for 46.63pts (+74%)
  • since the start of 2018, they are 13/71 (18.3%) for 36.89pts (+52%)
  • 5yo+ since 1/1/18 are 12/45 (26.7%) for 53.34pts (+118.5%) *this is where my interest lies
  • over this 6f C&D : 7/31 (22.6%) for 32.32pts (+104.3%)
  • LTO Winners are 6/13 (46.7%) for 36.08pts (+277.6%)
  • and in June/July : 4/10 (40%) for 23.84pts (+238.4%)

And as Steelriver was a course and distance winner here last time out, I though we'd take a quick look at the trainer's record when taking horses who won last time out back to a track where they've previously won over C&D ie...


from which those runners (all on the All-Weather btw) are...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 33.43pts (+417.9%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 34.43pts (+491.9%) in 9-13 runner contests here at Wolverhampton
  • 4/10 (40%) for 24.34pts (+243.4%) over the same C&D as that LTO win
  • 3/6 (50%) for 20.56pts (+342.7%) last year alone (just 1 run so far in 2020, unsurprisingly)
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 19.56pts (+279.3%) over a 6/7 furlong C&D LTO
  • 3/5 (60%) for 23.7pts (+474%) over a Wolverhampton C&D LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) for 16.91pts (+422.6%) over a Wolves C&D at 6/7f LTO
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 19.86pts (+993%) in June/July

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 8.15am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.15 Haydock : Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Led, driven and headed 1f out, held towards finish) : right on the pace as expected, but couldn't hold on.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bavardages @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old colt has finished 112 in his last three starts, all in A/W handicaps and he has the benefit of having had a pipe-opener this season already, when a half-length runner-up on Newcastle's Tapeta six days ago. That was coming off a break of 198 days and I'd expect him to come on for the run.

PJ McDonald rides for Mark Johnston here and the pair have already had 4 winners from 14 together since the resumption and they make a pretty good team in A/W handicaps as is best shown as follows...

...and those figures include of relevance today...

  • 20/109 (18.4%) for 44.7pts (+41%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 17/61 (27.9%) for 74.4pts (+122%) on horses raced in the previous 6 to 20 days
  • 15/78 (19.2%) for 44.8pts (+57.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/34 (17.7%) for 7.6pts (+22.2%) at class 5
  • and 5/32 (15.6%) for 25.8pts (+80.5%) here at Wolverhampton

Of the above, it makes sense to me to focus on the first three subsets of data and since the start of 2017, combining the three gives us this workable angle...

*

Bavardages' recent run was as I said, his first in over six months and trainer Mark Johnston has a good recent record with A/W handicappers at the sharper end of the market, who have only had 1 other handicap outing in the previous 90 days. It's not as complicated as it sounds, but a picture often illustrates better ie

...from which we can again apply some logical/relevant filters like...

  • 18 from 43 (41.9%) for 42.1pts (+98%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.7pts (+138.7%) for those who ran on Tapeta LTO
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 21.75pts (+128%) at Class 5
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.1pts (+186.8%) with PJ McDonald in the saddle
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 4pts (+40%) here at Wolverhampton

I won't combine the above into an angle for fear of over-diluting the sample size, but I think I've enough grounds...

...to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Bavardages @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral and Bet365 respectively at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!