Posts

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2019

Monday's pick was...

8.40 Ripon : Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG 13th at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, took keen hold, headway and hung right over 2f out, weakened over 1f out

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Poet's Pride @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has won two of his last four starts, including a course and distance success last time out 15 days ago when ridden by today's jockey, Robert Winston for the first time, taking this horses' record on the A/W to 2 wins and a place from 5 runs, including...

  • 2 wins and a place from 4 as a 4 yr old
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 on tapeta
  • 2 from 3 on Standard going
  • 2 from 2 here at Wolverhampton
  • a win and a place from two efforts at Class 5
  • 1 from 2 over a 7f trip
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance (LTO)
  • and 1 from 1 under Robert Winston (LTO)

Robert also comes here in good form, having ridden 8 winners from 33 (24.2% SR) for 49.9pts (+151.2% ROI) over the last 30 days, including three wins from three (100%) for 9.82pts (+327.4%) here at Wolverhampton, where over the last 8 months, he is 8/44 (18.2%) for 8.3pts (+18.8%) including 4 wins from 6 (66.6%) for 19.06pts (+317.7%) over this 7f course and distance.

And finally for today, our trainer is David Barron and his runners are 19/95 (20% SR) for 65.9pts (+69.4% ROI) here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today...

  • 15/69 (21.7%) for 67.7pts (+98%) from male runners
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 64.9pts (+85.5%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 7/25 (28%) for 38.8pts (+155.2%) over this 7f C&D
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 31.6pts (+108.9%) at Class 5
  • and 6/30 (20%) for 9.98pts (+33.3%) from those racing within 15 days of their last run...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Poet's Pride @ 5/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.20 Carlisle : Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Held up in mid-division, headway 3f out, chased winner and edged right over 1f out, edged right inside final furlong, kept on but couldn't catch winner who got first run)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tha'ir @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f  on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding has a win and two places from his last three runs (all here at Wolverhampton over different distances) and it's fair to say that he saves his best for this venue with 4 wins and 5 further places from just 13 appearances here with a 30.8% win strike rate generating profits of 4.34pts at an ROI of 33.4%, including...

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 4/6 (66.6%) for 11.34pts (+189%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 4/10 (40%) for 7.34pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.03pts (+100.5%)
  • and in handicaps : 2/8 (25%) for 5.92pts (+74%)

...whilst at 8/1 and shorter within three weeks of his last run = 4/8 (50% SR) for 9.34pts (+116.7% ROI).

Only one of the above wins was for current trainer Phil McBride, for whom he has a win and two places from three efforts, but Phil himself has a more than respectable record on the Tapeta here at this venue with 16 winners from 57 (28.1% SR) for 31.7pts (+55.5% ROI) from those sent off at 8/1 and shorter since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today...

  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 32.7pts (+71.1%) from those with a run in the previous six weeks
  • 14/50 (28%) for 32.2pts (+64.4%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 13/32 (40.6%) for 47.1pts (+147.2%) in the March-September period
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 14.2pts (+40.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 17.6pts (+65.1%) at Class 6
  • and 6/18 (33.3%) for 30.8pts (+170.9%) since the start of 2018

...from which, horses running in March to September for prizes of less than £4,000 within 6 weeks of there last run are 12 from 26 (46.2% SR) for 43.2pts (+166% ROI), with the following applicable today...

  • 2018/19 : 6/13 (46.2%) for 35.8pts (+275.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/15 (40%) for 19.6pts (+131%)
  • in handicaps : 5/15 (33.3%) for 17.8pts (+118.3%)
  • 2018/19 handicaps : 4/10 (40%) for 18.61pts (+186.1%)
  • 2018/19 at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.6pts (+237.4%)
  • in Class 6 handicaps : 2/9 (22.2%) for 4.59pts (+51%)
  • and 2018/19 in C6 hcps = 2/6 (33.3%) for 7.59pts (+126.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tha'ir @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Musselburgh: Port Swtan @ 9/2 BOG Fell at 5/2 (Chased leaders on inside, went wrong and fell over 3f - fatally injured)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 7-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 3yo fillies over 7f on Standard worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

It's deja vu, as Matt steps in for Chris on another Monday and looks to replicate the 5/1 winning trick of my previous temporary stewardship. Specifically...

James Tate's three-year-old Morpheus filly is making her handicap debut in this contest. The trainer continues to  excel with handicap debutant(e)s and has now won with 13 of the 39 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +16.19, A/E 1.8).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 112111278611126.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with five of the 13 runners he's sent out in the past fortnight (38.46%, +1.63, A/E 1.2). In the past 30 days, his record is 9/25, and again positive figures for P/L and A/E.

The trainer record at Wolverhampton is remarkable in the past year: eight winners from 16 runners (50% SR, +18.75, A/E 1.96).

Evolutionary has a bit to find on the book with the likes of favourite Diamond Oasis, but she's likely to improve notably for her first run of the year and the first attempt at handicap company. As always, the price - along with the stat - makes the play...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG which was available generally at 7.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Musselburgh: Port Swtan @ 9/2 BOG Fell at 5/2 (Chased leaders on inside, went wrong and fell over 3f - fatally injured)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 7-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 3yo fillies over 7f on Standard worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

It's deja vu, as Matt steps in for Chris on another Monday and looks to replicate the 5/1 winning trick of my previous temporary stewardship. Specifically...

James Tate's three-year-old Morpheus filly is making her handicap debut in this contest. The trainer continues to  excel with handicap debutant(e)s and has now won with 13 of the 39 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +16.19, A/E 1.8).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 112111278611126.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with five of the 13 runners he's sent out in the past fortnight (38.46%, +1.63, A/E 1.2). In the past 30 days, his record is 9/25, and again positive figures for P/L and A/E.

The trainer record at Wolverhampton is remarkable in the past year: eight winners from 16 runners (50% SR, +18.75, A/E 1.96).

Evolutionary has a bit to find on the book with the likes of favourite Diamond Oasis, but she's likely to improve notably for her first run of the year and the first attempt at handicap company. As always, the price - along with the stat - makes the play...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG which was available generally at 7.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2019

Monday's pick was...

4.40 Hexham : Ravished @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, led before 7th, went right 13th, clear with winner after 4 out, ridden and headed turning in, soon one pace, edged right and kept on closing stages, beaten by just a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Corinthia Knight @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Conditions Stakes for 4yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £7159 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding looks well suited by the task ahead and has already won 7 of 18 starts on the A/W prior to today, and with today's contest in mind, that 7/18 record includes...

  • 6/13 after 10 to 40 days rest
  • 6/13 in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 6/12 in non-handicap races
  • 5/10 over 5 furlongs
  • 5/10 when sent off shorter than 4/1
  • 3/9 ridden by Ed Greatrex
  • 2/5 on Tapeta
  • 2/2 in April
  • and 1 from 2 over course and distance

...whilst from the above...when sent off shorter than 4/1 in 5f non-handicaps against 4-8 rivals after a 10-40 day break, he is 3 from 3 (100% SR) for 4.14pts (+137.8% ROI) profit.

His trainer, Archie Watson is in decent form right now, too, with a 14-day record reading 8 from 28 (28.6 SR) for 12.3pts (+43.9% ROI), from which 5f sprinters are 3 from 7 and jockey Ed Greatrex is 2 from 6.

Ed himself is 3/12 over the past fortnight and 2 from 7 in the last week, so he's also riding well enough...

...to support... a 1pt win bet on Corinthia Knight @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by most bookies at 5.30am on Tuesday (12.30am here), although Paddy Power were slightly more generous at 10/3 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 13th April 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.35 Kempton : Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Held up, headway chasing leaders 7th, 3rd and one pace from 4 out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zapper Cass @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has three wins and a place from his last five runs and is dropped back down to 5f after failing to make the frame here over 6f last Saturday (I tipped him that day too!).

To date on the A/W , he has...

  • 3 wins from 10 at Class 5
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 at 5f
  • 2 wins from 4 in a visor
  • and 1 win from his only previous crack at this track and trip.

Jockey Mark Crehan claims 7lbs again today and his record on Mick Appleby-trained horses currently stands at 14 from 50 (28% SR) for 67.1pts (+134.2% ROI) since they first teamed up last May and these include...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 24.4pts (+54.2%) in handicaps
  • 14/43 (32.6%) for 74.1pts (+172.2%) from male runners
  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 48.3pts (+115.1%) when Mark claims 7lbs
  • 13/36 (36.1%) for 33.4pts (+92.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 7.34pts (+18.8%) on the A/W
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 59.6pts (+283.7%) at Class 5
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 10.66pts (+152.3%) already this month!

...and from the above... Appleby + Crehan + hcps + males + 7lbs claim + 8/1 & shorter = 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+85.6% ROI)

And since this horse has been turned out just a week after his last run, you might find it interesting to know that...

... 2017-19 + Mick Appleby + 6-7 days since last run = 22/109 (20.2% SR) for 47.4pts (+43.5% ROI) including...

  • 6/7 yr olds at 9/37 (24.3%) for 49.4pts (+133.5%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 4/1 (where I expect to end up) : 15/34 (44.1%) for 23.1pts (+67.8%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.6pts (+45.9%)
  • over 5f : 6/18 (33.3%) for 24.1pts (+133.9%)
  • and those beaten by 3-4 lengths LTO are 4/13 (30.8%) for 37.2pts (+286.1%)

...whilst 6/7 yr olds sent off at 6/4 to 4/1 are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 12.4pts (+82.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Zapper Cass @ 9/2 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 9.55pm on Friday (4.55pm here),. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 6th April 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.40 Aintree : Champ @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up towards rear, not fluent 7th, headway approaching 4 out, led going well when not fluent 2 out, clear flat, ridden out, comfortably clear by 3 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zapper Cass 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 1131 in his last four outings, the latest being a win here at Wolverhampton over 5f four days ago. He steps back up to 6f today, but looked like he'd plenty left in the tank last time.

Jockey Mark Crehan is on board again seeking to utilise his 7lb claim to further an already excellent record on this horse that shows 3 wins and a place from 8 rides to date. Mark is actually quietly establishing a bit of a reputation in the Mick Appleby yard, having ridden 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for the yard so far, generating level stakes profits of 66.5pts (+144.6% ROI) and these include...

  • on 4-7 yr olds : 13/42 (31%) for 70.5pts (+167.9%)
  • on males : 13/39 (33.3%) for 73.5pts (+188.5%)
  • when claiming 7lbs : 8/38 (21.1%) for 47.8pts (+125.8%)
  • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 12/33 (36.4%) for 31.9pts (+96.6%)
  • 4-25 dslr : 10/31 (32.3%) for 65.4pts (+211%)
  • over trips of 6f to 1m : 11/30 (36.7%) for 64.3pts (+214.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 61.6pts (+324%)
  • over 6f : 3/8 (37.5%) for 52.2pts (+652.3%)
  • and in April : 2/3 (66.6%) for 10.14pts (+338.1%)

...whilst Crehan + Appleby + 4-7 yr old males + 6f-1m + 8/1 and shorter = 10/18 (55.6% SR) for 28.7pts (+159.3%)...

It's also worth noting that since the start of 2017, Mick Appleby runners turned back out after just 3-7 days rest are 37/187 (19.8% SR) for 46.4pts (+24.8%), from which...

  • at Class 5 : 21/71 (29.6%) for 43.9pts (+61.8%)
  • 6-9 yr olds : 17/64 (26.6%) for 83.2pts (+129.9%)
  • LTO winners are 11/35 (31.4%) for 5.88pts (+16.8%)
  • and when using a jockey claiming 7lbs : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.77pts (+48.1%)

...and from the above... Appleby + 3-7 dslr + 2017-19 + 6-9 yr olds + Class 5 = 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 42.6pts (+157.7% ROI), including...

  • LTO winners = 4/4 (100%) for 9.43pts (+235.8%)
  • with a 7lb claim : 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%)
  • and with a 7lb claimer on an LTO winner : 2/2 (100%) for 5.7pts (+285%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Zapper Cass 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 28th March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.35 Lingfield : Harry Callahan @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 4f out, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, no extra final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gantier 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 3 yr old son of Frankel who seems to haven taken to the A/W quite well, finishing 2212 in four efforts so far and was only beaten the 0.75 lengths LTO 5 weeks ago here at Wolverhampton over 9.5 furlongs. He was staying on well enough that day against a short priced jolly and I think the extra 2.5 furlongs today will suit him. He's trainer John Gosden's only runner at the meeting and will be partnered by Kieran O'Neill, which I'm happy about, because...

...Gosden + O'Neill = 13 from 59 (22% SR) for 36.7pts (+62.2% ROI), from which...

  • 9 from 33 (27.3%) for 32.1pts (+97.2%) on the A/W, including...
  • 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 15.65pts (+195.7%) here at Wolverhampton, which isn't too surprising when you realise/consider that...

...John Gosden + Wolverhampton + Tapeta = 65/188 (34.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+13.3% ROI) from blindly backing all his runners here! If you wanted to be more selective, you could look at the following angles at play today...

  • sub-5/1 shots are 63/141 (44.7%) for 42.2pts (+30%) and you could realistically stop here
  • 3 yr olds are 33/97 (34%) for 12.84pts (+13.2%)
  • 21-60 days since last run = 23/53 (43.4%) for 27.9pts (+52.7%)
  • up in trip by 1 to 2.5 furlongs = 14/40 (35%) for 21.2pts (+53.1%)
  • over this 1m4f course and distance : 6/12 (50%) for 13pts (+108.3%)

...and from the above... 3yr olds sent off shorter than 5/1, 21 to 60 days after last outing are 11 from 24 (45.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.6% ROI), with those stepping up in trip winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 9.02pts (+69.4%).

And finally for today, with Mr Gosden having just one runner at this venue, it might interest some of you to know that since 2013 when sending just one runner to a track that day, those horses are 63/249 (25.3% SR) for 36pts (+14.4% ROI) profit in handicaps, from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 47/185 (25.4%) for 15.8pts (+8.54%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 48/180 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+29.1%)
  • prize of £8k or less : 40/168 (23.8%) for 11.89pts (+7.1%)
  • males : 42/166 (25.3%) for 38.3pts (+23.1%)
  • Class 4/5  : 35/140 (25%) for 20.71pts (+14.8%)
  • on the A/W : 30/124 (24.2%) for 13.6pts (+11%)
  • up in trip by 0.5 to 3 furlongs : 29/99 (29.3%) for 54pts (+54.6%)
  • and over this 1.5 mile trip : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.7pts (+24.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gantier 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Lingfield : Executive Force @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along 2f out, headway entering final furlong, ridden and stayed on to lead close home, won gamely by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old filly making just her sixth start, having finished 313 in her last three outings and was beaten by less than a length last time out. That was at Lingfield 10 days ago in a similar Class 5, 6 furlong contest to this one.

Her trainer James Tate is 11 from 32 (34.4% SR) over the last 60 days and 5 from 16 (31.25%) in the past month, whilst on the All-Weather at trips shorter than 10 furlongs, his runners are 38/166 (22.9% SR) for 57.5pts (+34.7% ROI) since the start of 2018, including of relevance today...

  • at Class 5 : 26/118 (22%) for 32.3pts (+27.4%)
  • those sent off shorter than 10/1 are 35/106 (33%) for 70.6pts (+66.6%)
  • in handicaps : 19/61 (31.2%) for 18.2pts (+29.9%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 13/53 (24.5%) for 8.2pts (+15.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 13/46 (28.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.8%)
  • and with David Allan in the saddle : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.53pts (+19.1%)

...whilst in Class 5 handicaps shorter than 10/1, these runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 26.45pts (+110.2% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 (50%) for 13.75pts (+171.8%) here at Wolverhampton...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, 888Sport & BetVictor at 7.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Lingfield : Executive Force @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along 2f out, headway entering final furlong, ridden and stayed on to lead close home, won gamely by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old filly making just her sixth start, having finished 313 in her last three outings and was beaten by less than a length last time out. That was at Lingfield 10 days ago in a similar Class 5, 6 furlong contest to this one.

Her trainer James Tate is 11 from 32 (34.4% SR) over the last 60 days and 5 from 16 (31.25%) in the past month, whilst on the All-Weather at trips shorter than 10 furlongs, his runners are 38/166 (22.9% SR) for 57.5pts (+34.7% ROI) since the start of 2018, including of relevance today...

  • at Class 5 : 26/118 (22%) for 32.3pts (+27.4%)
  • those sent off shorter than 10/1 are 35/106 (33%) for 70.6pts (+66.6%)
  • in handicaps : 19/61 (31.2%) for 18.2pts (+29.9%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 13/53 (24.5%) for 8.2pts (+15.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 13/46 (28.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.8%)
  • and with David Allan in the saddle : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.53pts (+19.1%)

...whilst in Class 5 handicaps shorter than 10/1, these runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 26.45pts (+110.2% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 (50%) for 13.75pts (+171.8%) here at Wolverhampton...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, 888Sport & BetVictor at 7.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2019

Monday's Pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Arrowzone @ 4/1 BOG 11th at 7/1 (Raced keenly towards rear, never on terms)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flood Defence 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Well, when I'm on a bit of a losing run right now, it might seem strange to plump for a 5 yr old mare who hasn't won any of her last 12 races over the past 16 months since landing a Class 5 handicap over 1m2f at Sandown off a mark of 66.

In her defence, she has run well here over course and distance lately, finishing third on each of her last two visits, both at Class 5. She's down at Class 6 today, off a mark of 61, so a win wouldn't actually be a massive surprise.

Trainer Iain Jardine's yard is in good nick right now and in their last 6 days of racing (spread over the last fortnight), his horses have won 5 of 13 (38.5% SR) for 9.86pts (+75.9% ROI)

Our jockey today is Adam Kirby, who is 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 5pts (+12.2% ROI) on horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter over the last three weeks, including 4 winners from 10 (40%) for 4.33pts (+43.3%) on tapeta.

The tapeta form is no surprise either, as since 2015, he has 122 winners from 562 (21.7% SR) rides here at Wolverhampton in Class 5/6 contests over trips of 8.5 to 14 furlongs, resulting in profits of 85.8pts at a healthy ROI of 36.4%.

And before I wrap this up, I want to touch back on the horse's losing run and falling rating, because it's handy to know that in Flat/AW handicaps since the start of 2105, Iain Jardine's horses running off a mark 1 to 9lbs lower than their last win and are on a losing run of up to 15 races have actually gone on to break that run on 18 of 141 (12.8% SR) occasions, generating 90.5pts profit at an ROI of 64.2%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Flood Defence 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.10pm on Monday evening, but if you can, do take the 4/1 BOG from Bet365 as I've done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.50 Lingfield : Deep Intrigue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Arrowzone 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta, worth £2264 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding seems to love it here winning 5 of 18 starts, with the last win coming two runs ago off a mark of 59. He couldn't replicate that form under a penalty last time out, but now back to his proper mark, should give another good account of himself under favourable conditions, as from his Wolverhampton record of 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 4.18pts (+23.2% ROI), all at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, he is...

  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) on the Tapeta track
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.19pts (+58.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.19pts (+44.2%) at Class 6
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7.19pts (+55.3%) off a mark of 50-60
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.19pts (+68.2%) wearing blinkers
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.18pts (+83.5%) in fields of 12-13 runners

...AND...when, like today, all of the above factors are in play :  4/7 (57.1% SR) for 13.19pts (+188.4% ROI).

Moreover, his trainer Kevin Frost is 19 from 138 (13.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+22.6% ROI) in handicaps here over 6 to 9.5 furlongs since 2014, and with today's conditions in mind, here's how he got some of those 19 winners...

  • 17 from 118 (14.4%) for 34.1pts (+28.9%) from male runners
  • 17 from 100 (17%) for 41.8pts (+41.8%) running 1 to 6 weeks after their last run
  • 16 from 55 (29.1%) for 34.3pts (+62.4%) who were sent off at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 15 from 79 (19%) for 44.5pts (+56.3%) from those with 1 to 4 previous track wins
  • 14 from 103 (13.6%) for 43pts (+41.7%) from those racing in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 13 from 74 (17.6%) for 20pts (+27.1%) from those racing off a mark of 46 to 61
  • 10 from 59 (16.9%) for 45.4pts (+76.9%) from those aged 6 to 8 yrs old
  • 10 from 50 (20%) for 35.2pts (+70.4%) from those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 8pts (+133.3%) with Jason Hart in the saddle

...whilst, since the start of 2016 : males + 5/4 to 6/1 + 1-4 track wins + 1-6 weeks since last run = 10/21 (47.6% SR) for 20.7pts (+98.4% ROI)...

...giving us a... a 1pt win bet on Arrowzone 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Bet365 & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. There was also some 9/2 non-BOG in places, but if you can, do take the 5/1 BOG from Hills as I've done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.50 Lingfield : Deep Intrigue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arrowzone 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta, worth £2264 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding seems to love it here winning 5 of 18 starts, with the last win coming two runs ago off a mark of 59. He couldn't replicate that form under a penalty last time out, but now back to his proper mark, should give another good account of himself under favourable conditions, as from his Wolverhampton record of 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 4.18pts (+23.2% ROI), all at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, he is...

  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) on the Tapeta track
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.19pts (+58.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.19pts (+44.2%) at Class 6
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7.19pts (+55.3%) off a mark of 50-60
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.19pts (+68.2%) wearing blinkers
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.18pts (+83.5%) in fields of 12-13 runners

...AND...when, like today, all of the above factors are in play :  4/7 (57.1% SR) for 13.19pts (+188.4% ROI).

Moreover, his trainer Kevin Frost is 19 from 138 (13.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+22.6% ROI) in handicaps here over 6 to 9.5 furlongs since 2014, and with today's conditions in mind, here's how he got some of those 19 winners...

  • 17 from 118 (14.4%) for 34.1pts (+28.9%) from male runners
  • 17 from 100 (17%) for 41.8pts (+41.8%) running 1 to 6 weeks after their last run
  • 16 from 55 (29.1%) for 34.3pts (+62.4%) who were sent off at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 15 from 79 (19%) for 44.5pts (+56.3%) from those with 1 to 4 previous track wins
  • 14 from 103 (13.6%) for 43pts (+41.7%) from those racing in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 13 from 74 (17.6%) for 20pts (+27.1%) from those racing off a mark of 46 to 61
  • 10 from 59 (16.9%) for 45.4pts (+76.9%) from those aged 6 to 8 yrs old
  • 10 from 50 (20%) for 35.2pts (+70.4%) from those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 8pts (+133.3%) with Jason Hart in the saddle

...whilst, since the start of 2016 : males + 5/4 to 6/1 + 1-4 track wins + 1-6 weeks since last run = 10/21 (47.6% SR) for 20.7pts (+98.4% ROI)...

...giving us a... a 1pt win bet on Arrowzone 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Bet365 & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. There was also some 9/2 non-BOG in places, but if you can, do take the 5/1 BOG from Hills as I've done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2019

Monday's Pick was...

3.55 Ayr : Casual Cavalier @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, led 4 out, strongly challenged 2 out, headed final 50 yards, no extra)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Debbonair 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £2911 to the winner...

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in decent enough form on the A/W this winter finishing 132, all on Polytrack and always looking like he needs further. Well, he steps up another 2f tonight for his Tapeta/Wolverhampton debut and I'd expect him to go well again.

Ben Curtis is in the saddle tonight and although this is his first ever ride here at Wolverhampton on a Hugo Palmer-trained horse, he did ride 12 winners from 32 (37.5% SR) for the trainer last year with a £10 bet on each runner yielding £197 profit at an ROI of 61.5%, including 10 wins from 18 (55.6%) for 11.21pts (+62.3%) at Class 5 and 2 from 8 (25%) for 2.06pts (+25.7%) on the A/W.

Hugo Palmer's own record here at Dunstall Park is good with 31 winners from 117 (26.9% SR) for 73.2pts (+62.6% ROI) profit since 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • on Tapeta : 28/104 (26.9%) for 38.5pts (+37%)
  • Wolves debutants : 23/85 (27.1%) for 55.3pts (+65%)
  • Class 5 : 21/73 (28.8%) for 64.1pts (+87.9%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 22/72 (30.6%) for 69.6pts (+96.7%)
  • Tapeta debutants : 21/72 (29.2%) for 56.5pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 19/56 (33.9%) for 23.4pts (+41.8%)
  • in handicaps : 13/50 (26%) for 50.9pts (+101.8%)
  • 2nd to 5th LTO : 19/49 (38.9%) for 79.7pts (+162.6%)
  • up in trip : 11/43 (25.6%) for 39.6pts (+92.1%)
  • and in February : 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.59pts (+36.9%)

...whilst more generally, Hugo's runners stepping up in trip are 106/578 (18.3% SR) for 378.5pts (+65.5% ROI), which is an angle worth keeping an eye on, as is the fact that in UK A/W contests, his runners with at least 1 career run to their name, now tackling a particular A/W surface for the first time are 62/230 (27% SR) for 112.2pts (+48.8% ROI), including...

  • Tapeta debuts : 28/86 (32.6%) for 55.8pts (+64.9%)
  • in handicaps : 21/80 (26.3%) for 69.3pts (+86.6%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 19/56 (33.9%) for 65.6pts (+117.2%)

...from which...tapeta debutants in Wolverhampton handicaps are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 15.79pts (+83.1% ROI), with 5 winners from 14 (35.7%) for 9.93pts (+70.9%) since the start of 2017...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Debbonair 10/3 BOG which was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2019

Friday's Pick was...

2.50 Warwick : Doitforthevillage @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, hit 2nd, steady headway on outside chasing leaders before 2 out, hung left between last 2, switched right and kept on run-in, went never nearer 3rd towards finish, 2.25L off the pace)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 6f on Tapeta, worth £2426 to the winner...

Why?

Well, you'd be forgiven for thinking I'd lost the plot in backing a 9 yr old gelding who hasn't won for a while (56 races over almost 52 months if we're being specific!), but in my/his defence he has looked more like winning since returning to Michael Herrington's yard, where he was relatively successful during a 13-month stay in 2014/15.

He has made the frame in each of the three races since the switch of yard and his three defeats have come at a combined deficit of less than 1.5 lengths and only went down by a neck LTO, 8 days ago in another Class 6, 6f, A/W (Tapeta) handicap, when partnered by today's jockey for the first time.

His long losing run has taken his career record from a reasonable 3/20 to an admittedly pretty poor 3/76, but it's interesting (to me, at least!), that of his three career victories...

  • all were on the A/W
  • 2 were in handicaps
  • 2 for Michael Herrington
  • 1 at 6f
  • 1 here at Wolverhampton

Trainer Michael has himself had some joy here at Dunstall Park in recent years, especially at the sharper end of the market, with 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 61.4% with runners sent off at 6/1 or shorter in handicaps here since the start of 2015. Of relevance today of those 31 runners...

  • over trips of 5/6f : 6/19 (31.6%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 18.26pts (+107.4%)
  • Feb-April : 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.14pts (+115.3%)
  • in 2018 (no quals yet this year) : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.87pts (+63.3%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • 7-14 days since last run : 6/12 (50%) for 17.56pts (+146.3%)
  • and over this 6f C&D : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.37pts (+67%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Steelriver 9/2 or 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Hills respectively at 5.45pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!