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Stat of the Day, 10th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG a poor 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leader, led 4f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Conkering Hero 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 5, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has won 4 of his 13 A/W races to date and comes here in great form having won each of the last three, culminating in a course and distance success here a week ago and of his 4/13 A/W record, he has the following...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 at the age of 4
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 in a visor
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 over 2m/2m½f
  • 2 wins from 4 in fields of 6/7 runners
  • 2 wins from 3 in July / August
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 with Finley Marsh in the saddle
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (that LTO win a week ago)

Trainer Joseph Tuite is 15 from 74 (20.3% SR) for 18.81pts (+25.4% ROI) with his Flat & A/W LTO winners since the start of 2015, including...

  • 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 7.07pts (+22.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 16.55pts (+57.1%) sent off shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 38.67pts (+133.3%) from June to August
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.89pts (+58.2%) in 2018
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.68pts (+72.3%) 6-10 days after their LTO win
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.15pts (+431.5%) over 1m6f and beyond
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.04pts (+113%) here at Wolverhampton

As I alluded earlier, 5lb claimer Finley Marsh is in the saddle today and so far this year, he is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+177.9% ROI) on the Tuite string of horses, from which he is...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.9pts (+199.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.9pts (+224.2%) when claiming his 5lb allowance
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 27.9pts (+253.7%) when claiming 5lbs in a handicap

And finally for this one (phew!)... Since the start of 2013 in Class 5 A/W contests, horses who won over course and distance last time out by 3 lengths or less at odds of 11/4 to 20/1 are 25 from 52 (48.1% SR) for 51.45pts (+98.9% ROI) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Conkering Hero 5/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 9.45pm on Thursday. with plenty of 9/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 25th

WINDSOR – JUNE 25 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £701.90 (6 favourites: No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 3.7 units went through – 22/1 – 16/1 – 20/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 89.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 66/1 – 10/11*

Race 3: 54.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 6/4*

Race 4: 29.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 13/8*

Race 5: 24.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 11/4 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 3/1 (9/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 6 (Cent Flying), 2 (Spot Lite) & 3 (Spanish Star)

Leg 2 (6.40): 11 (Swiper), 5 (Glory) & 9 (Storm Shelter)

Leg 3 (7.10): 2 (Bella Ferrari) & 6 (Edge Of The World)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Buffer Zone) & 5 (Perfect Hustler)

Leg 5 (8.10): 1 (Desert Path), 5 (Morning Sky) & 2 (Candidate)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Worth Waiting) & 2 (Contrive)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

 

 6.10: CENT FLYING is ten pounds better in with SPOT LITE for a minimum margin defeat on Bath form earlier in the year.  It would not be wise to take that form line too seriously given the different format of the two tracks but even so, the weights and measures act offers the nod to the first named William Muir raider, on principle if nothing else.  Bookmakers have choked on cigars for as long as man can recall when such scenarios have been on place, only for the form lines to become as twisted as Alfred Hitchcock plots down the years.  Should both runners fall wide of the required mark (entirely possible at this level), connections of SPANISH STAR should prove to be the main beneficiaries.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite sent the majority of punters home happy, given that twelve months ago, this was the last race on the card.

 

6.40: Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue.  Tom saddles STORM SHELTER this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride.  That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between SWIPER and GLORY who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting).  Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than BLESSED TO IMPRESS I’ll wager, though BELLA FERRARI and EDGE OF THE WORLD should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  The pair is listed in order of preference, given that the 6/1 quote in a couple of places this morning offers half decent ‘bet to nothing’ prospects about the George Scott’s raider who is a pound better off with that rival on Leicester form last time out, when George’s Bated Breath filly was making her handicap debut.  That said, Ralph Beckett sent one horse up to Pontefract to winning effect yesterday and his hat trick seeker EDGE OF THE WORLD looks set to run her race again on these terms.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Windsor programme.

 

7.40: Ten of the twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which suggest that Kimifive (from 8-6) might struggle against his five rivals this event.  The pick of the relevant quintet will hopefully prove to be BUFFER ZONE, though those working from a working man’s wage might care to row in with Jeremy Noseda’s each way option, namely PERFECT HUSTLER who is closely matched with the hot favourite via two-year-old form.  Jeremy has suffered something of a well-documented traumatic year, though it’s worth noting that his 8/28 record since February is a (29%) ratio which most trainers would settle for.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/1—Buffer Zone (good)

 

8.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6, though even this self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ is taking on the figures this time around with DESERT PATH.  Amanda Perret’s top weight is still on offer at 9/2 at the time of writing, a price that I snapped up in the dead of night, presuming that the odds would not last too long.  MORNING SKYE and CANDIDATE have both been well placed by their respective connections, though DESRT PATH represents a far better chance than the 18% ‘probability quote’ by the layers this morning from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the last 21 years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Desert Path (good)

 

8.40: Starlight Mystery represents some value for money at around the 9/1 mark this morning in the Placepot finale, though the safest options to secure another dividend appear to be WORTH WAITING and CONTRIVE. David Lanigan’s raider WORTH WAITING is the option that I would take if money arrives for the Bated Breath filly, given that a great number of David’s winners are well backed.  Without holding that potential edge by writing this analysis fourteen hours ahead of the race, I will just have to be patient and see what support transpires.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last the previous year (2016 - £455.90)

Despite five winning favourites in the relevant Placepot events, one race did the damage.

Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance.

As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th June

GOODWOOD – JUNE 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £156.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 55.9% units went through – 9/2 – 6/1 – 7/2*

Race 2: 48.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 9/2** - 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 3: 32.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 22/1 – 6/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 55.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 5/1

Race 6: 28.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 9 (Unbridled Spirit), 2 (Cheeky Rascal) & 4 (Marble Bar)

Leg 2 (6.30): 7 (Flowing Clarets), 5 (Incentive) & 8 (Mad Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Sky Eagle), 2 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Arab Moon)

Leg 4 (7.40): 2 (Pretty Jewel), 3 (Arcadian Cat), 4 (Gift Of Hera) & 1 (Reckless Wave)

Leg 5 (8.15): 2 (Silca Mistress)

Leg 6 (8.50): 9 (Supernova), 5 (Great Beyond) & 3 (Crystal King)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

 

  • Nice win for us yesterday with 48 winning 10p lines at Sandown which created a Placepot profit of £212.64 on the day…

 

5.55: Although three of his seven runners won during a good period this time last week, Andrew Balding’s runners continue to blow hot and cold this season, though I’m hoping the flag back at the ranch will by flying at its highest mast after UNBRIDLED SPIRIT scores here, chiefly at the expense of CHEEKY RASCAL and MARBLE BAR I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top priced of 7/1, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.  Five of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

6.30: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in this event, though only John Bridger (FLOWING CLARETS) seems alive to the potential ‘edge’.  Luke Morris might find himself in a tassle to grab the lead aboard John’s raider early doors though either way, I’m adding Flowing Clarets into the mix via my self-confessed anorak tendencies.  Stuart Kittow’s pair INCENTIVE and MAD ENDEAVOUR are included in the Placepot equation in a race which could produce a result which will kill off several thousand Placepot units – hopefully!

Favourite factor: Four of the last five winners (of six in total) have scored at a top price of 5/1, stats which include two (7/2 & 5/2) winners.  That said, only three of the seven market leaders thus far have finished in the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Oeil De Tigre (good to soft)

1/3—Mad Endeavour (soft)

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet only a trio of vintage representatives feature in the nine strong field.  There have been other forecasts gained during the period though the 2015 renewal stood out with four-year-olds securing a 120/1 Exacta Forecast alongside the 345/1 Trifecta dividend!  This year’s trio are SKY EAGLE, HUMBLE HERO and ARAB MOON.  The defence rests its case!

Favourite factor: Only one 7/2 (joint favourite) has obliged during the last decade during which time, just four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/3—Arthur Mc Bride (good & soft)

 

7.40: PRETTY JEWELL would be the call if had to nominate one of the four declarations from a win perspective, though with her course victory having been gained under soft conditions, I feel duty bound to include all four runners in my permutation before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Pretty Jewel (soft)

 

8.15: I have searched through the card for a banker in one of the races, knowing that I was going to have to offer large perms in some races, believing that a good Placepot dividend is on the cards tonight.  I have opted for SILCA MISTRESS, even though Clive Cox’s raider drops down a furlong after scoring at Leicester recently.  Having made all at Leicester, pace should not be an issue and nothing should be staying on stronger in the final furlong.  Adam Kirby’s mount has secured gold and silver medals over this distance in the past via six assignments, whilst her two victories to date have been gained under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first (seventh of nine) it what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

8.50: SUPERNOVA looks a tad big at 9/2 in four places at the time of writing, whilst others added into the Placepot equation are GREAT BEYOND and CRYSTAL KING.  If you are looking for an each way interest in the race, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Sarim I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest to close out the Goodwood programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 6th June

HAMILTON – JUNE 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £88.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.1% units went through – 11/8* (Win only)

Race 2: 95.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/4 & 11/8*

Race 3: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 & 12/1 (11/10)

Race 4: 25.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 & 7/2 (4/5)

Race 5: 65.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 -11/4*

Race 6: 35.8% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Hamiton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 9 (Princes Des Sables) & 1 (Axel Jacklin)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Jonboy) & 11 (Rotherhithe)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Sunrize), 2 (Kings Gold) & 6 (Al Hawraa)

Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Sir Dancealot) & 3 (Laugh A MInute)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Pioneering), 9 (Chinese Spirit) & 8 (Rock N Rolla)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Inexes), 1 (Short Work) & 7 (Start Time)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

 

2.00: I tend to shy away from maidens who have run four times when on offer at skinny prices and whilst Broken Spear will understandably attract thousands of Placepot units, Tony Coyle’s Pastoral Pursuits gelding wouldn’t be winning with my money riding on his back.  Kevin Ryan has saddled 25 juvenile winners down the years at this venue, securing 15 points of level stake profits into the bargain.  PRINCES DES SABLES in entered into the mix accordingly, whilst Mark Johnston’s raider AXEL JACKLIN will attract plenty of interest as usual.  Keith Dalgleish saddled the first winner of the contest twelve months ago but his Choisir filly was not making her debut, as opposed to Keith’s inmate Theatre Of War this time around.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.30: ROTHERHITHE hinted at becoming a bit of a madam having refused to go into the stalls at the first time of asking this year.  Her three silver medal efforts on her first year at school suggested that there was always a race like this in her, though warning signs are flashing now. Anyone fancying the Finjaan filly should have their fingers on the online button ready to offer the green light once she goes into the gate, though probably not before that scenario has ensued.  JONBOY is the call accordingly, with David Barron’s Delegator colt having made up plenty of late ground after being run off his feet early doors at this venue on his seasonal bow.  This additional (sixth) furlong is what the doctor was ordering long before the finish of that race four weeks ago.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Hamilton card.

 

3.00: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared the four renewals, with the younger set looking to hold the edge this time around.  KINGS GOLD and AL HAWRAA look the safest options at the time of writing, though a four-year-old is grabbing my attention as dawn begins to break over Bristol this morning.  SUNRIZE represents David O’Meara and with money coming in for David’s Azamour gelding overnight which adds weight to his chance in this grade/company.  David is very much a ‘London busses trainer’ whose winners tend to come packed together from my observations in recent years whereby another success here would come as no surprise, especially as three of David’s last six runners have obliged.

Favourite factor: We still await the first favourite to score after four renewals thus far. Only one market leader has finished in the frame to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Al Hawraa (good to soft)

 

3.30: On the face of things, SIR DANCEALOT would appear to have a few lengths in hand over LAUGH A MINUTE, with David Elsworth’s four-year-old Sir Prancealot gelding standing ten pounds clear of LAUGH A MINUTE according to the official assessor, though only having to give eight pounds away on this occasion.  That however does not take into account the definite scope for improvement for Roger Varian’s LAUGH A MINUTE which makes a mockery of the trade press quote this morning which suggests that Andrea Atzeni’s mount is “fully exposed” which defies belief to a fashion.  If LAUGH A MINUTE is fully exposed with all of four (and a tad) miles on his racing clock, God knows what the person who made the comment would make of yours truly attempting to make a living with a zimmer frame never far from my reach!  With sire Mayson not reaching his peak until racing as a four-year-old, the comment should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt it deserves at this moment in time.  I have every respect for eleven time winner Kimberella but his Scottish gigs have earned just two bronze medals via seven assignments thus far, albeit this is his first run at Hamilton.

Favourite factor: This Class 2 Conditions event is another new race on the Hamilton Programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/1—Classic Seniority (good)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds came to the gig on a four timer last year (via as many renewals), when the two vintage representatives had to settle for silver and bronze medals behind the five-year-old winner. A trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the field accordingly, namely PIONEERING (another David O’Meara raider with each way claims on the card), CHINESE SPIRIT (trainer back among the winners now) and ROCK N ROLLA who has dropped to a favourable mark, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: We still await the first favourite to score after four renewals thus far. Only one market leader has finished in the frame to date.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Zabeel Star (good to firm)

 

4.30: INEXES comes to the party on a hat trick and with 11/4 offered across the board for Marjorie Fife’s inmate, the 27% probability factor set by layers looks about right.  SHORT WORK and START TIME are the potential party poopers from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Although two of the favourites claimed Placepot positions in the four renewals to date, we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Inexes (good to firm & soft)

2/8—Khelman (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 6th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

8.45 Newcastle : Blazed @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 (Slowly away, towards rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, no impression and no extra final 75 yards)

We continue with Wednesday's...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding on a hat-trick after a win over course and distance was backed up by a success over the same trip at Ayr 15 days ago. He stayed on well to win late on both occasions and with no real discernible pace on offer in this contest, I expect a similar tactic to hopefully produce a similar result.

Previous track knowledge certainly helps around here and that prior C&D win was his only run at the venue, so he's unbeaten here albeit from the smallest sample size imaginable!

His trainer Tim Easterby has had 12 winners from 75 (16% SR) for 10.3pts (+13.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2015 with that low-ish ROI suggesting that his horses attract some support whilst winning more than their fair share and of the 75 mentioned...

  • handicappers are 11/65 (16.9%) for 6.33pts (+9.7%)
  • those sent off at evens to 12/1 are 12/50 (24%) for 35.3pts (+70.6%)
  • males are 10/48 (20.8%) for 18.2pts (+38%)
  • and at Class 6, it's 8/39 (20.5%) for 3.87pts (+9.9%)

...Class 6 male handicappers at odds of Evens to 12/1 are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+64.3% ROI) profit...

Tim's LTO winners are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 11.5pts (+60.6% ROI) this year alone, so he's clearly got into a rhythm of keeping in-form horses to repeat themselves, whilst since the start of 2014, his LTO winners with the CD logo next to their name are 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 34.4pts (+67.4% ROI) profit and these include...

  • over trips shorter than a mile : 6/32 (18.8%) for 34.5pts (+107.7%)
  • 6-15 days since last run : 9/26 (34.6%) for 53.9pts (+207.3%)
  • and male runners : 7/20 (35%) for 32.7pts (+93.3%)

...male runners racing over trips shorter than a mile, 6 ro 15 days after their last run/win are 4/10 (40% SR) for 43.5pts (+435% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG  which was widely available on Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 31st May

HAMILTON – MAY 31 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £65.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.3% units went through – 2/5* & 28/1

Race 2: 38.0% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 5/2 (2/1)

Race 3: 37.4% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 11/2 – 11/1 (2/1)

Race 4: 26.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 9/2 – 33/1

Race 5: 65.6% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 9/2

Race 6: 53.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 – 7/2* - 7/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Delft Dancer) & 5 (Big Ace)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Lexington Place) & 6 (Dapper Man)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Logi), 3 (Redrosezorro) & 6 (Epeius)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Jabbaar), 6 (Artful Rogue) & 4 (Corton Lad)

Leg 5 (4.00): 9 (Song Of Summer) & 2 (Lady Nathaniel)

Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Natajack), 6 (Quiet Moment) & 1 (Prancing Oscar)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

 

2.00: Mark Johnston (see favourite factor comment) saddles his Dutch Art filly DELFT DANCER who won at the second time of asking under soft conditions at Nottingham. Only BIG ACE is standing up against the projected favourite at the time of writing, with trainer Tim Easterby having saddled eleven winners during the last fortnight.  That said, Tim’s juvenile record on turf this season of 2/16 cannot live with Mark Johnston’s 14/48 but then again, few would struggle to get on terms with those two-year-old figures!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market scored having been touted up by yours truly after huge overnight support for the Mark Johnston inmate.

 

2.30: Five four-year-olds have won during the last decade though that said, the last of them prevailed back in 2013.  Four course winners contested last year’s event but we are down to two this time around with conditions seemingly good for LEXINGTON PLACE on this occasion.  DAPPER MAN appears to be the pick of the pair of four-year-olds and there might not be a great deal of daylight between the Placepot nominations at the jamstick.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last ten years though that said, eight of the other nine gold medallists have been returned in single figures.  Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame during the last eleven years.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

2/8—Jacob’s Pillow (good & good to soft))

1/1—Lexington Place (good to firm)

 

3.00: It’s worth having a look at the negative favourite figures below in case you are ready to plunge into one of the fancied horses in the field.  All five winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-7, though only EPEIUS appears to have a hope of winning the race in the face of stern opposition further up the handicap.  The chance or LOGI to go close is there for all to see, whilst the admirably consistent REDROSEZORRO demands respect.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via five renewals which have been won by horses returned at 28/1-18/1-10/1-10/1-8/1.

Record of the two course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Logi (good to firm)

1/4—Straightothepoint (good)

 

3.30: Keith Dalgleish saddles two of the remaining six runners with Trading Punches having been withdrawn.  Keith’s ‘course specialist’ CORTON LAD can rarely be overlooked at this venue, whilst ARTFUL ROGUE would not be winning out of turn for the team.  Either way, both horses are up against it with JABBAAR having been declared to run again following his Chester victory on Saturday.  A six pound penalty might not be enough to stop Iain Jardine’s Medicean gelding in his tracks.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

3/15—Corton Lad (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.00: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 and the Irish raider LADY NATHANIEL looks to have been well placed by canny trainer Ger Lyons.  That said, it might be as well to keep both feet on the ground as Ger’s record this side of the Irish Sea on the level stands at 5/93 down the years on turf.  Iain Jardine has definite claims of potentially saddling two successive winners on the card having declared SONG OF SUMMER, though Iain’s Choisir filly hails from the wrong end of the handicap according to the weight trends.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via six renewals at 4/1** & 5/4.  That said, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1 though conversely, four of the last five market leaders are still being sought by detectives in the area, having finished out with the washing.

 

4.30: Four-year-olds have won all three contests and the trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely NATAJACK, QUIET MOMENT and PRANCING OSCAR.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far by snaring gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 29th May

LEICESTER – MAY 29

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £20.50 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 90.2% units went through – 8/15* - 6/1 – 9/2

Race 2: 24.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 14/1 (2 x 5/2**)

Race 3: 48.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 5/2* - 7/1

Race 4: 79.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 8/1 – Evens*

Race 5: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 14/1

Race 6: 81.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/5* - 15/2 – 11/2

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Ballistic), 6 (Secret Venture) & 2 (Blyton)

Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Flight Of Fantasy), 7 (Infanta Isabella) & 9 (Peace And Plenty)

Leg 3 (2.50): 6 (Shovel It On), 4 (Star Of Zaam) & 5 (Straight Ash)

Leg 4 (3.20): 3 (Angel’s Glory) & 2 (Cavatina)

Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Fanaar) & 5 (Glorious Dane)

Leg 6 (4.20): 16 (Delph Crescent), 5 (I’m A Star) & 1 (Nibras Galaxy)

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BALLISTIC is a general 6/1 chance across the board at the time of writing and given that he finished ‘only’ four lengths adrift of an Aidan O’Brien favourite (finished third) at Newmarket recently, Jim Crowley’s mount represents an each way (potential) bet to nothing investment, albeit to small stakes.  Murqaab looks too skinny from my viewpoint at the third time of asking, whereby I’ll add newcomers SECRET VENURE and BYLTON into the Placepot mix for openers.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Harry Dunlop’s runners (alongside brother Ed’s for that matter) but FLIGHT OF FANTASY should give us a reasonable run for our collective monies in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  It might be worth taking into account that Harry has only saddled more winners at Salisbury than he has managed at this venue down the years and with the ‘Dunlop’ name en masse strongly associated with the Wiltshire racecourse, Harry’s Leicester record is decent enough.  Others to consider from a win and place perspective include INFANTA ISABELLA and PEACE AND PLENTY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite prevailed.

Leicester record of the two course winners in the second event: 

1/2—Flight Of Fantasy (good to soft)

1/1—Bakht A Rowan (heavy)

 

2.50: All nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 which eliminates the top three horses in the handicap, two of which are well fancied according to the trade press. The trio which make most appeal from the other five options in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest are course winner SHOVEL IT ON, STAR OF ZAAM and STRAIGHT ASH.

Favourite factor: Two (6/4 & 5/2) favourites have prevailed via nine renewals to date, whilst seven of the nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Leicester record of the course winner in the field: 

1/3—Shovel It On (soft)

 

3.20: The trio of winners thus far have scored at 33/1, 10/1 & 9/2 with the prices getting bigger year on year!  Hoping those stats will not have put you off having a bet in the race, I’m offering up ANGEL’S GLORY to go very close in this grade/company.  It took a subsequent ‘Listed’ winner to stop the Invincible Spirit filly scoring at the first time of asking this term and it’s doubtful that there is a rival of that class in this field.  Andrea Atzeni will have (presumably) had the option of riding stable companion Elation, which leads yours truly to thinking that CAVATINA is the biggest threat to the selection this afternoon.  Lady Willpower receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor: Both of the (11/4 & 9/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s even money market scrambled home in third place to reduce the deficit.

 

3.50: The Hannon team think a great deal of GLORIOUS DANE, that much I know to be true but there might be a doubt about him beating FANAAR over six furlongs, with Fran Berry’s mount being an Olympic Glory colt.  Either way, I suggest you set the video up for this event to determine just how good Glorious Dane might be later in the the season.  FANNAR did little wrong at the first time of asking and looks something of a Placepot banker, whichever of the pair wins, unless Sir Michael Stoute’s Kingman colt ALNASHERAT proves to be something out of the ordinary.  I urge you to take note of that last sentence, given that Michael has saddled more juvenile winners at Leicester than anywhere else in this green and (blessedly still) pleasant land.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won via twelve renewals, whilst the relevant winners to date scored at a top price of 8/1.  Nine of the fourteen favourites have snared Placepot positions to date.

 

4.20: DELPH CRESCENT appeals at odds of 20/1 in a place this morning, fully expecting Richard Fahey’s raider to contract to around the 14/1 mark before too long as business gets fully under way.  Richard took his ratio to 3/4 at the track yesterday with a winner from the other end of the market, though Paul Hanagan’s mount is still expected to give a decent account at the odds on offer.  Others for the mix include I’M A STAR, NIBRAS GALAXY and IMMORTAL ROMANCE.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

 

  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 10th May

CHESTER – MAY 10 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2017: £42.70 (7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed)

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £102.48 - 47 favourites - 18 won - 16 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 81.2% units went through – 10/11* & 4/1

Race 2: 68.6% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* & 4/1

Race 3: 48.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2** - 9/1 – 8/1 (7/2**)

Race 4: 49.3% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 8/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 & 6/1 (4/6)

Race 6: 52.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 11/1 – 5/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (El Astronaute), 1 (Doctor Sardonicus) & 6 (Hyperfocus)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Rostropovich), 5 (My Lord And Master) & 1 (Kenya)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Tadleel), 8 (Dragon’s Tail) & 1 (Another Batt)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Idaho) & 6 (Muntahaa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Arcadian Rocks) & 6 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Christopher Robin), 3 (Ghostwatch) & 1 (Austrian School)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We started the Chester meeting off with a successful permutation yesterday – let’s hope for more of the same today!

 

1.50:  EL ASTRONAUTE attempts to follow up last year’s success in the race and with trainer John Quinn having scored with four of his last eight runners, Jason Hart’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  DOCTOR SARDONICUS should not be too far away at the jamstick, particularly if Tom Dascombe’s raider is given anything like an easy lead up front, whilst HYPERFOCUS looks a tad too big at 40/1 in a place this morning, despite his negative stall position.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of seven course winners in the opening race:

2/5—El Astronaute (good & good to soft)

2/4—Sir Maximilian (2 x good)

1/6—Reflektor (good to soft)

2/4—Boundsy (2 x good)

2/5—Confessional (good to soft & soft)

3/13—Powerallied (2 x good & soft)

1/4—Bossipop (good to soft)

Draw factor (Five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

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1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event six times via the last eleven renewals in which the team has been represented and with strong candidates such as ROSTROPOVICH and KENYA this time around, Aidan looks sure to go close to extending his recent tally.  That said, MY LORD AND MASTER cannot be left out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 12 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  13 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

3.00: Ten of the last sixteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with TADLEEL and DRAGON’S TAIL (winner on the corresponding card last year) representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  TADLEEL hails from the Ed Dunlop stable which has won with three of its five three-year-old handicappers at Chester during the last five years.  Although Ed’s last seven runners have been beaten, four of them reached the frame (exact science) at 16/1, 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1, whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is an each way player today, despite an unfortunate draw.  Jim is one of the two jockeys which have ridden the Dark Angel colt to victory thus far.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, ANOTHER BATT could prove to be the joker in the pack and it’s worth noting that money was coming in for Silvestre’s mount as dawn broke over Bristol this morning.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include seven winners.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Dragon’s Tail (good)

 

3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals (not represented on one occasion), though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence.  No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That said, Michael is also on the missing list which leaves us eyeing up the prospect of another Aidan O’Brien winner in IDAHO who looks overpriced at the 11/8 quote in the trade press overnight. Indeed, favourite backers might be doing well to obtain 5/6 nearer flag fall, with MUNTAHAA seemingly the only horse standing in his way this afternoon.  The form of Idaho at the top level last year at his best would surely see the five-year-old home here with something to spare.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last twenty years.  17 of the last 19 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  ‘Only’ seven of the twelve market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

Chester record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Duretto (heavy)

1/1—Muntahaa (good)

 

4.05: Mick Channon has saddled eight of his 21 juvenile runners this season to winning effect and with ARCADIAN ROCKS having landed a trap one position, Mick’s Society Rock colt could improve the ratio still further.  YNYS MON is the obvious threat from what we have witnessed to date, especially as any jungle drums beating for newcomers have not reached my ears at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 22 favourites during the last 19 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-1 (7 ran-good)

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: Eleven different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though with the likes of CHRISTOPHER ROBIN, GHOSTWATCH and AUSTRIAN SCHOOL looking to have the race between them, the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.

Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last eleven years, whilst nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2 during the study period.

Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

 

Record of the five course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Al Destoor (soft)

1/5—Dark Devil (heavy)

1/1—Never Surrender (good)

1/8—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

2/6—Berrahri (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 9th May

CHESTER – MAY 9 

 

Seven year Placepot details on day one of the Chester May meeting:

2017: £25.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

2016: £31.30 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £16.30 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £68.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £1,492.00 (8 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)

2012: £110.00 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £69.60 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £259.09 - 50 favourites - 14 winners - 14 placed - 22unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 29.5% units went through – 4/1 – 12/1 – 11/2 (2/1)

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & Evens*

Race 3: 65.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 4/1 – 10/1

Race 4: 29.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 9/1 – 25/1 – 5/1 (4/1) – This race was the Chester Cup which is being contested on Friday this year

Race 5: 62.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – Evens* - 12/1

Race 6: 91.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 9/2 – 11/4

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Linou), 8 (Sir Prancealot) & 5 (Kinks)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Magic Wand) & 1 (Award Winning)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Spoof), 2 (Looks A Million) & 8 (Showmethedough)

Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (Hunting Horn) & 5 (Ispolini)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Argentello) & 2 (Baritone)

Leg 6 (4.35): 7 (Last Page), 5 (Requinto Dawn), 4 (Mr Top Hat) & 6 (Ginbar)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50 ('Lily Agnes'): Potentially, this is the second largest field for the ‘Lily Agnes’ during the last twenty years whereby the draw (heavily favouring low numbers) could well play an important role.  That said (explaining why bookmakers make vast profits year on year) the 2013 result of horses drawn 8-9-10 filling the frame in a twelve runner field defied belief at the time.  The following year, the winner was boxed 10/10 so don’t get too carried away with what media ‘experts’ will be telling you today!  SIR PRANCEALOT is drawn out in stall eight but there has been money for the David Evans trained raider, whilst it’s worth noting that no handler has bettered his score of saddling two winners in the race during the last decade.  That all said, her stable companion LIHOU looks the more obvious winner on paper and there was plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing.  If David and his team is to be denied this time around, KINKS could prove to be the joker in the pack, despite being housed out in the card park.  I see no value in No Lippy who is a top price of just 2/1 as dawn breaks.  Trap four is a superior position to break from, though only if you have enough pace to bag the rail, especially with Mark Johnston only having scored with one of his last eighteen runners.  No Lippy won well at Doncaster at the first time of asking but at 13/8 in places, those layers are suggesting that Mark’s February foal has a 38% chance of winning.  That scenario looks far too tight for my liking.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the last nineteen years.  Seventeen of the last nineteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less.

Draw factor' (five furlongs – most recent results at the top):

3-4-8 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

10-9-3 (10 ran-good)

8-9-10 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-2-8 (8 ran-soft)

2-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (7 ran--good)

5-7-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (6 ran--good)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-2-6 (10 ran-good to soft)

1-2-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

3-2-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

8-1-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

 

2.25 ('Cheshire Oaks'): Aidan O’Brien has won this event five times during the last decade, though the trainer adds confusion into the scenario on this occasion having declared three runners. Not all of Aidan’s winners have looked at ease around the twists and turns of the Roodee but that said, most of them have done what was asked of them and it will come as no surprise if the trainer lands his third victory in the last four years.  MAGIC WAND and TOGETHER FOREVER are expected to represent the Irish maestro to best effect here, though John Godsen stopped the bandwagon in is tracks last year with Enabled, whereby the chance of AWARD WINNING is respected.  I’m not suggesting for a moment that John’s Dubawi filly will live up to her stable companion by any means but that said, there was a lot to like about her successful raid at Wetherby at the second time of asking recently.  Shailene could outrun her 14/1 quote if you’re looking for a big priced individual to give you a decent run from a win and place perspective.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (ten winners) during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-2 (7 ran-good)

6-3-4 (8 ran-good)

2-7-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good)

7-9-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-1 (9 ran-soft)

8-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (7 ran--good)

2-6 (7 ran--good to firm)

4-1-2 (9 ran--good)

4-6-11 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-10-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

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4-3 (6 ran-good to soft)

1-2-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-7-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (5 ran-good)

7-6-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran-good)

 

3.00: Although this is a new race for reasons stated in the ‘favourite factor’ below, the draw stats are worth perusing. Only on four occasions during the last 20 years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a Placepot position in this event. Even though that scenario occurred for the fourth time in 2013, the next stall (three) housed the 12/1 winner.  The haul of just four gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the Placepot stat is impressive given that an average of 13 horses have contested the race during the study period. Whether the fact that the ages of the horses will make a great deal of difference relating to the draw or not, my trio against the field consists of SPOOF (trap three), LOOKS A MILLION (1) and SHOWMETHEDOUGH (4)

Favourite factor: This is classed as a new race because having been open to horses of all ages in the past, the contest is now confined to three-year-olds.

I have left the following draw factor in however, just to give you a feel of the handicap scenario over the minimum trip.

Draw factor: (five furlongs):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of the two course winners in the third event:

1/1—Billy Dillon (good to soft)

1/1—Porchy Party (heavy)

 

3.35 (Chester Vase): Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last eleven renewals and the trainer obviously intends to snare the swag here being responsible for three of the ten declarations.  I invariably question the thoughts of the trainer in such circumstances because I have to believe that Aidan is not convinced that he has a definite winner within the quartet, having paid the expenses for the others to travel over from Ireland.  That said, Aidan comes to the gig on a six-timer whereby HUNTING HORN demands to be included in the Placepot mix from my viewpoint.  Plenty of interesting horses take the Irish raiders on however, with ISPOLINI slightly preferred to Young Rascal as the main hope to prize the swag away from Aidan on behalf of the home team.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 16 years, statistics which include seven (3/1-7/4- 6/4-11/8-10/11-4/9) winners.

 

4.05: Well fancied runners have (aside from the 2015 result) performed well in this event and we appear to have a two horse race to consider, with ARGENTELLO and BARITONE having been declared.  Hailing from the powerful respective stables of John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute, I cannot believe that both horses will finish out of the frame.  If you fancy that an upset could be on the cards, Soldier To Follow could be worth an each way interest.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 18 winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won ten of the last thirteen contests, whilst 17 of the last 21 jollies have secured Placepot positions.  Those stats include the 1/6 (Aidan O'Brien trained) favourite in 2015, though the market leader could only finished second behind an 8/1 winner!

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

3-4-5 (9 ran-good)

4-2 (5 ran-good)

3-8 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-1-4 (11 ran-good)

7-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

11-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-8 (7 ran--good)

10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-4-5 (9 ran--good)

4-10-1 (11 ran-good)

7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

6 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

 

4.35: 14 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of nine stones or less and LAST PAGE could create a first and last Placepot double for David Evans.  REQUINTO DAWN was the beaten favourite in the ‘Lily Agnes’ twelve months ago and Richard Fahey’s representative comes here with and place claims in this grade/company.  MR TOP HAT and GINBAR make up my short list against the field.  Rain is scheduled to arrive at around three o’clock according to the radar I have just spied and softening ground could give GINBAR a realistic chance of going well at around the 20/1 mark, despite his stall 12 positon.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the study period.

Draw factor' (six furlongs):

1-2-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6-7 (11 ran-good)

9-2-6 (12 ran-soft)

9-7-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-9-7 (11 ran-soft)

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)

6-8-1 (10 ran-good)

9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)

1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)

9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Finbar (heavy)

 

Record of the six course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Roaring Forties (good)

1/2—Kenstone (good)

1/13—Intransigent (good to soft)

1/3—Right Touch (soft)

1/1—Roll On Rory (soft)

1/16—Alejandro (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot positions – Wednesday 2nd May

ASCOT – MAY 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £70.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 68.0% units went through – 12/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 71.5% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & Evens*

Race 3: 8.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 & 10/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 4: 75.9% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 7/2 – 10/1

Race 5: 52.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 2/1*

Race 6: 59.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 12/1 – 11/4*

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Dathanna)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Torcedor), 5 (Raheen House) & 6 (Time To Study)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Sound And Silence), 6 (Laugh A Minute) & 4 (Eqtidaar)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Accidental Agent) & 3 (Century Dream)

Leg 6 (4.55): 10 (Balmoral Castle), 5 (Mountain Angel), 2 (Berkshire Boy), 7 (Sayem) & 9 (Saluti)

Suggested stake: 90 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • Much depends on the state of the ground at Ascot because if some of the heavy rain we have endured here at Bristol overnight gets into the ground, you can forget the official going – “good, good to soft in places” quote overnight. That goes for the ground at Bath (I live ten minutes away from the racecourse) – and then some!

 

2.00: If ‘whispers’ are to be believed, THE IRISH ROVER is home and hosed following a half decent debut effort at Dundalk.  That last comment does offers warning signals however because we don’t know how Ryan Moore’s mount will go on turf, especially with rain forecast to reach Ascot well before lunchtime.  There was only a light shower overnight but the wet stuff it set to intensify sooner rather than later this morning.  The trade press price of 8/13 looks wide of the mark via the exchanges this morning, with 4/9 being more likely to be returned.  If that does not sound like a great deal of difference, the differential is similar to a horse being back from 9/1 into 5/1.  You will be in a better position to judge the way the market is swinging later in the morning, whereby I am going to bank on Ryan’s mount in a smaller permutation today than is usually the case because of the uncertainty of conditions.

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Favourite factor: Fifteen of the sixteen winners have scored at 6/1 or less, whilst six favourites have prevailed to date.  Twelve of the eighteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions. This meeting was transferred to Kempton five years ago but I have included the (high profile) results nonetheless.  

 

2.35: Some strange trainer movements are in place today.  All five of John Gosden’s runners turn up at Wolverhampton, whilst only one of Sir Michael’s Stoute’s four representatives are travelling to Ascot.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that Charlie Appleby can be the beneficiary here having declared DATHANNA.  I’m banking on the first two hot-pots on the card, albeit I’m mindful that the opening pair of short priced (5/6 & even money) market leaders twelve months ago failed to oblige.

Favourite factor: 16/17 winners have scored at odds of a top price of 8/1.  Seven favourites have won, whilst twelve of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

3.10: Last year’s £70.90 Placepot dividend would have been so much less but for the two 7/2 joint favourites having finished out of the frame twelve months ago.  Although the two horses that finished in the ‘short field’ frame were only sent off at 15/2 and 10/1, 91.6% of the live units perished!  TORCEDOR looks another lively Irish raider on the card and having claimed one gold medal and two of the silver variety from just three assignments on soft ground, Jessica Harrington’s Fastnet Rock gelding can go close in this grade/company.  RAHEEN HOUSE and TIME TO STUDY are preferred to Desert Skyline in the projected ground.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Nineteen of the last twenty one favourites have been beaten in this ‘Sagaro Stakes’, with just six market leaders finishing in the frame in the process. That said, eighteen of the last twenty winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Raheen House (good to soft)

 

3.45: Although SOUND AND SILENCE won the ‘Windsor Castle’ at last year’s royal meeting on fast ground, Charlie Appleby’s Exceed And Exceed colt had run some decent races under contrasting conditions.  Roger Varian’s runners are beginning to do what they are told now whereby the chance for LAUGH A MINUTE is respected, whilst Sir Michael Stoute’s lone raider EQTIDAAR might prove to be of the liveliest outsiders on the card.  Invincible Army does not light me up at the projected price of 6/4.

Favourite factor: Five of the last thirteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen of the last twenty market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  Twelve of the last fourteen winners have scored at odds ranging between 6/4 and 7/1.

Ascot record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Sound And Silence (good to firm)

 

4.20: Four-year-olds have snared six renewals during the last twelve years and ACCIDENTAL AGENT and CENTURY DREAM can continue the trend on behalf of the vintage. I made a strong case for last year’s 7/2 winner and that would have been the case for CENTURY DREAM but for the fact that ‘headgear’ has been left off, despite the fact that a hood has been worn in each of the last four occasions that Simon Crisford’s Cape Cross colt has won.  This pair should see us safely through to the Placepot finale however.

Favourite factor: Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions (two winners), though it’s worth noting that the 4/9 favourite in a ’win only’ contest was turned over eight years ago.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/3—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

 

4.55: Horses carrying 8-11 or more have secured nine of the ten available Placepot postitions to date and though we have to take allowances into consideration here (hoping that the relevant pilots claim their full entitlements), the field can be narrowed from twenty down to eleven.  My quintet against the field accordingly consists of the 2016 winner BALMORAL CASTLE, MOUNTAIN ANGEL, BERKSHIRE BOY, SAYEM and proven soft ground winner SALUTI.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites secured a Placepot position without winning its respective event two years ago.

Draw factor (One mile straight):

9-10-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

9-7-5-10 (17 ran-good to soft)

15-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Apex King (good to firm)

1/4—Balmoral Castle (good to soft)

1/1—Fire Tree (good)

1/4—Professor (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.