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Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2013

Davy Russell's well-timed ride on Don Cossack gave us another nice winner at 11/4 yesterday comfortably beating the 13/8 SP he was returned at.

This was the perfect end to a very good week here at SotD and also gave December the flying start I wanted: a start I'm confident of maintaining with today's hat-trick bid running in the...

12.55 Wolverhampton

As I sat down to write today's piece, I suddenly became aware that Matt had also selected this horse for The Shortlist, but I'm going to stick with my selection, as the two selection methods are (in my opinion, anyway!) unrelated.

I'd also like to think that us both siding with Full Speed at 3/1 BOG (Bet365) adds more confidence to the respective bets.

Matt selected the horse via race profiling, but my approach is via a couple of unrelated stats.

Firstly, Full Speed is a male horse running in a Class 6 A/W handicap and isn't changing class by more than one grade (in fact he isn't changing at all). He's top rated officially and will go off as either favourite or joint favourite for this one.

Horses fitting that above profile have won 231 out of 656 races since the turn of 2010. This 35.2% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 103.24pts, or 15.74% of stakes, whilst refining the selections to those priced 13/8 or above yields a slightly lower strike rate of 30.25 % via a 144/476 record, but the ROI improves to a very healthy 24.2% courtesy of a 115.2pts profit.

A 24%+ ROI from backing favourites has to be a good thing, doesn't it?

As this contest is an amateur riders contest, there'll be a claimer in the saddle today and our jockey takes 5lbs off for us here and trainer Philip Kirby is one of the leading exponents at using the 5lb claiming jockeys to good effect.

In handicap contests this year alone, he has employed the services of a 5lb claimer on 30 occasions when the horse was priced at 6/1 or under, netting 8 winners for a strike rate of 26.67% and the ensuing profits run to 11.88pts, or a very healthy 39.6% of all stakes invested.

The combination of the two stats are enough to convince me to place a 1pt win bet on Full Speed at 3/1 BOG with Bet365, but I'm very aware that there are other bookies out there, so to see their prices, simply...

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Double Dutch, 29th November 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 29th November 2013

We got ourselves back in winning mode yesterday, with two winners, a second and a third place from our four selections. The two winners combined for a nice 12/1 double at our BOG advised prices: a great deal better than the 9/1 SP return.

This brings me almost back to my own minimum expectations from this service of 30% individual winners and a 1 in 3 strike rate for the doubles.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Koolala: won at 100/30 (SP 5/2)
Dewala: 3rd at 11/4
---------------------------------
Thomas Brown: won at 2/1 (SP 15/8)
Maestro Royal : 2nd at 100/30 (SP 9/4)
(The Exacta paid £6.60 here)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
72 winning selections from 242 = 29.75%
22 winning doubles in 66 days = 33.33%

Stakes: 130.00pts
Returns: 135.50pts

P/L : +5.50pts (+4.23% ROI)

At 4.23%, we're in Bank ISA territory, I suppose, but I'd really like us to run at an ROI of 10% or above. Hopefully we can get closer to that figure with today's selections, which are as follows:

1.20 Doncaster:

My biggest dilemma in this race was to choose a backup selection to the favourite Highbury High, who actually looks decent value at 13/8 BOG. His detractors will say that he only landed a similar contest to this last week by a length and is now asked to go a furlong further and carry a 7lb penalty. The truth is that he won have won a good margin, but for a really bad error at the last fence.

He sprawled badly on landing, his jockey lost an iron and he was headed on the run in, yet he still rallied to get up to beat an 8/13 favourite. But for that error, he had plenty in hand.

The main challenge, (I think!) will come from 9/2 shot The Mumper, who gets to run here off the same mark as his very creditable third place at Taunton a fortnight ago. That was his first run for six months, yet he stayed this trip well to finish just three lengths down at a good price of 20/1. He'll run fitter for that outing and takes a drop in class here, making him a dangerous prospect.

5.55 Wolverhampton:

This looks a fairly mediocre contest, if truth be told and as such, it's hard to dismiss the chances of That's Plenty scoring his fourth consecutive victory. This son of Dr Fong is 262111 on all-weather surfaces (here and at Dundalk) and he's 2 from 2 here including a course and distance win two starts ago. He is, of course, up another 5lbs, but I still think he's on a very winnable mark and the 5/2 currently on offer looks appealing.

Of the rest, Marcret is probably the most likely to mount a challenge. he's a former Group 3 winner (so there's definitely ability there, maybe the attitude has been suspect), but has lost his way over the last year. He recently moved to David O'Meara's yard and showed some glimpses of past performances when 4th over this course a fortnight ago. He faded late on that day, but the drop back in trip might just make him a viable proposition at 11/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Highbury High / That's Plenty @ 9.19 with BetVictor
Highbury High / Marcret @ 9.84 generally
The Mumper / That's Plenty @ 19.25 with BetVictor and Ladbrokes
The Mumper / Marcret @ 20.63 with BetVictor, Ladbrokes and BetFred

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2013

We got ourselves back amongst the winners yesterday as Milosam justified me taking a lower priced selection than usual by coming home the 2/1 fav (we'd taken 85/40 of course!).

I didn't actually see the race, but I believe he was left with a clear run home after his main rival fell at the second last, handing our pick a win by a massive 28 lengths.

The 2.13pts are a welcome addition to our bottom line which has performed really well in the back-end of the year and I hope/expect to add to it today after the running of the...

6.25 Wolverhampton:

Where Tom Eaves (the jockey, not the Bolton Wanderers reserve team striker!) will ride Dodina for trainer Brian Ellison at a current best price of 4/1 BOG with both Bet365 and Paddy Power for this Class 5 Handicap.

Today will be the first time Dodina has turned out for Brian Ellison after the 3 yr old filly had shown plenty of promise in her seven starts for Peter Chapple-Hyam with finishes of 3212653 and was very unlucky here last time out over course and distance, finishing 3rd and less than 2 lengths from the winner despite getting bumped and then denied a clear run.

With a little more luck in running, she can score on her yard debut here, an occurrence that Brian Ellison is getting quite accustomed to! If we look at horses making their debut for him after having had a least a couple of runs under their belt, the results are excellent. These horses invariably attract market support and most of them go off at an SP of 8/1 or under.

In the last three years, there have been 90 such runners yielding 27 winners (30% SR) and 46.5pts profit, a return equivalent to 51.6% of stakes.

As I said at the top, Tom Eaves takes the ride and these lower class races at Wolverhampton seem to play to his strengths. In the last three years, Tom has ridden 84 horses at 8/1 or under in Class 4 or 5 races here at Wolverhampton. Tom has managed to hit the line first in 22 of those races, a strike rate of 26.2% generating level stakes profits of 48.1pts: an ROI of almost 57.3%.

If we combine the trainer stats with the jockey stats and add in the promise already shown by the horse, then a 1pt win bet on Dodina at 4/1 BOG might just be a good thing. Someone else somewhere must also think so, as she has been backed in from an early 8/1 price, but I was unable to get to a PC until now!

Irrespective of that, 4/1 is still a decent bet in my eyes and I've gone with Bet365 for this one, but I strongly advise you to...

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Stat of the Day, 25th November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th November 2013

We got a typical gutsy, battling performance from our 10/1 shot the veteran Oh Crick yesterday, but unfortunately 4th was the best he could manage.

He seemed to get a second wind on the run-in and looked like he might just be able to push on for a place, but was run out of it in the end, which rounded off a poor weekend for SotD, but we're hoping for better in the...

4.00 Wolverhampton

Former Geegeez syndicate horse Khajaaly might have a reasonable E/W shot here at 8/1 on his favoured Wolverhampton track, but today's shilling is going on the 3/1 favourite (Ladbrokes) Dansili Dutch.

This one made a switch to David O'Meara's yard three races ago and David seems to be getting a good tune out of this 4yr old grey, as she was an 11/1 Course & Dustance winner just nine days ago.

David has a good record with Course and Distance winners running within a month of their last victory with 12 winners from the 49 that have been sent off at 12/1 or less in the last three years. His record this year alone is 7 wins from 23 (30.4%) and he's 2/5 here at Wolverhampton.

That 24.5% strike rate has generated some 14.1pts profits at level stakes, a more than handy return of 28.76% above stakes invested.

Despite having been raised for her recent course and distance win, she is, in theory at least, still well in at the weights as the 5lb claimer David Bergen takes over from David Nolan and that claim more than cancels out the rising mark.

I've staked a 1pt win bet on Dansili Dutch at 3/1 BOG with Ladbrokes, but I highly recommend that you...

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Double Dutch, 23rd November 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd November 2013

We got ourselves back on the winning trail yesterday with our third success in four days, thanks to wins from Beat That and Fago, who combined to give us an 8.38/1 double.

The fact that we got the first two home on our second contest meant that forecast backers (I know a few of you play it this way) were rewarded with a near 13/2 payout.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Beat That: won at 6/4 (SP 5/4)
Sybarite: u/p at 7/2
---------------------------------
Fago: won at 11/4 (SP 9/4)
Simply Ned: 2nd at 9/4
(The forecast paid £7.43 here)

Results to date:
68 winning selections from 219 = 31.05%
21 winning doubles in 60 days = 35.00%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 118.00pts
Returns: 129.00pts

P/L : +11.00pts (+9.32% ROI)

Saturday is usually a difficult day for the doubles, with the racing generally being far more competitive, but I'll be looking to take out ROI into double figures today with these two carefully selected races from the evening's all-weather action...

5.50 Wolverhampton:

Fillies who won within the last five days tend to go well again when turned back out again on the all-weather and provided that this race doesn't come too soon for Porteous, then I'd expect her to run out the 5/2 winner here. She hasn't got things all her own way here, though, as she steps up to Class 5 for this one, but she has run well at a much higher grade than this on turf.

She's also raised 6lbs for her Kempton win on Thursday, which was her All-Weather debut, but if she shows the same attitude today, then 5/2 might prove to be a very good price.

Of her rivals, the one most likely (in my opinion anyway!) to take advantage of Porteous' rise in class and weight should be Kodafine who has been running very well of late and likes it here at Wolverhampton, securing two wins and two runner-up finishes from her six outings here and the 7lb allowance claimed by jockey Eoin Walsh could just be the difference today, making Kodafine a real danger at a decent price of 3/1 BOG.

7.50 Wolverhampton:

This race really should revolve around the top two in the market and there's little to choose between them really.

Tabaayun is currently the favourite at 6/4 with Bet365, courtesy of winning two of his last three outings, including a fairly comfortable success at Lingfield last Saturday. The step up in trip shouldn't be a problem today, as he has already won over this trip this season. This, however, is a tougher contest than the one he faced a week ago and a rise to a mark of 82 (from 75) both combine to make me have a slight preference for...

...Alakhan who seeks a hat-trick of wins after roaring back into form with successes at both Redcar and here at Wolverhampton in his last two starts. He has the advantage over the favourite of course knowledge and that last race was four weeks ago, so he should be fresher and the win was over course and distance, which is always a bonus around here. All of which make him a real contender at 15/8.

He's very lightly raced for his age: just 18 starts for this 7yr old to date, which might mean some selectivity from his handlers (I'm guessing though), but he's 2 from 2 at Classes 5 & 6 (C6 today) and has a creditable 2nd place finish in a Class 2 handicap to his name when hitting the heights of a mark of 85, but turns out off 77 here, the same mark as his C&D victory last time out.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Porteous / Tabaayun @ 8.75 with Bet365
Porteous / Alakhan @ 10.08 with Stan James, BetVictor or Paddy Power
Kodafine / Tabaayun @ 10.00 with Bet365
Kodafine / Alakhan @ 11.52 with Seanie Mac, BetVictor, Paddy Power or BoyleSports

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2013

We returned to winning ways yesterday with our second success inside four days as Super Villan came out on top in what proved to be a very attritional battle in South Wales.

The early 12/1 was all taken up by midnight and this horse attracted support all day before eventually running out a 3/1 winner. We'd gone E/W of course, but still made a juicy 7.5pts profit on the day, as the de Boinville/Bradstock partnership duly obliged for us.

Late night sand action for Saturday in the...

9.20 Wolverhampton

Where I've just taken 5/1 BOG with bet365 about the consistent Men Don't Cry.

This one has been running pretty well ever since winning at Ffos Las four months ago, finishing in the top three in six of seven races since with his last eight outings reading 13326322 and he rarely runs a bad race. He has won at this trip in the past and has gone well here at Wolverhampton, where his last five efforts (over 14 months) have resulted in finishes of 24223.

He does, however, have that annoying habit of finding one just too good for him, but he's fairly well treated at the weights despite his consistency and the booking of Mark Coumbe to take 3lbs off once more might just be pivotal in a race that looks a little poorer than the others he has contested of late.

I'm not deterred by his inability to win in the last 3 months since that Ffos Las victory, his consistency will help here tonight, for horses placed 2nd or 3rd in three successive races before coming to race on Class 5 or 6 contests here at Wolverhampton do have a very good record this year.

The criteria I've applied for today's stats are as follows: horses placed 2nd or 3rd in their last three outings, now running in a Class 5 or 6 contest at Wolverhampton and have enough support to be in the top three of the market and priced at 6/1 or under. Basically, consistent types that are attracting money!

This year alone, such horses have won 26 of 68 races: a strike rate of 38.24% giving rise to level stakes profits of 33pts at betfair SP, the equivalent of 48.5% of stakes invested. Today's trip is 1m4f and the record for qualifying horses at this trip this year reads as 5 wins & 3 places from 10 races. The 50% strike rate producing 8.9pts profit.

I'm aware that today's stat is a little from the left field, but the numbers do stack up and it can only be Men Don't Cry's lack of recent victories that makes him as long as 5/1. I wouldn't be surprised to see that price reduced as the day progresses, so it might be wise to...

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Stat of the Day, 19th November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2013

I signed off for my holidays almost three weeks ago with a nice 9/1 winner, it was unfortunately subject to a 30p in the pound deduction, but the E/W return was 4.78pts about a horse that came home at an SP of 100/30.

Once again, that result highlights the importance of using BOG bookies and I'm pleased to say that, in my absence, SkyBet have now followed suit and are offering BOG prices on all racing.

I'm hoping to pick up where I left off with an evening trip to Dunstall Park for the...

7.00 Wolverhampton

Where I've just taken 7/2 BOG about top weight Jay Bee Blue.

Jay Bee Blue has been in excellent form in the last five weeks or so, having gone down by just a neck at Kempton before securing back to back wins at Lingfield and Kempton. He can be excused his latest run (last Friday), where he was 5th (back at Lingfield) when he was simply given far too much to do. He was drawn out wide that day and the race didn't really play out the way he'd have liked, but more is expected today under talented jockey Oisin Murphy who will also take a valuable 5lbs off his back.

He runs over this course and distance for only the second time in his career, having won on his previous attempt back in September 2012, so he's not a complete stranger to Wolverhampton.

Male horses aged between 3 & 7 years old running in All Weather handicaps within five days of a defeat, where they finished in the top six runners have an excellent record over the last three years, when sent off at 8/1 or lower.

127 winners from 526 runners is not only a good sample size, it also represents a very healthy 24.14% strike rate, which has generated decent profits of 130.45pts, or 24.8% of stakes invested. The figures for 2013 alone read 46/158 (29.11% SR) for 84pts (+53.17% ROI), with Wolverhampton's stats being 17/68 (25% SR) for 25.8pts (+38% ROI) this year.

Jay Bee Blue is in good nick and the stats are there to back up the selection with the added comfort of knowing that Oisin Murphy will be giving it his all to improve his already excellent reputation. His last 100 rides have produced 52pts profit at SP, whilst his 41 rides on the All-Weather to date have generated 34.6pts profit at betfair SP via a 20% strike rate.

As such, Jay Bee Blue looks a good bet at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power and SkyBet (now a BOG bookie) are matching that price, so why not...

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Stat of the Day, 24th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2013

It seems that my error in yesterday's post went unnoticed, as Anglophile was actually ridden by Mickael Barzalona for Charlie Appleby and they proved to live up to their fearsome reputation at HQ. Between them they had two winners and a 4th placed finish.

Unfortunately, for us, we were on the horse that finished 4th. I did, however manage to beat the market quite comfortably, having taken 13/2 about a 3/1 favourite.

For the record, I said Silvestre de Sousa was on board, but he actually rode Devilment for Charlie Appleby in the same race, finishing second. So we'd have lost either way round, I'm afraid.

Late evening sand action awaits us today in the...

8.10 Wolverhampton

Where Marco Botti will be aiming to continue his fine excellent form and also to maintain his tremendous record here at Dunstall Park.

Marco really has got his string in fine fettle at present with 10 winners from 23 in the last fortnight at all odds. That 43.5% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 23.9pts, a return of almost 104% above stakes invested and all 10 winners have come from the 17 runners priced at 7/1 or under.

10 from 17 is a remarkable 58.8% strike rate and the 29.9pts profit represents almost 176% of stakes.

Not only does Marco has an excellent recent record, he has also been consistently turning out winners here at Wolverhampton for a good while now. In fact since the start of 2012, his record here with runners priced at 7/1 or under reads as 36 winners from 99 with 48.4pts (+49% ROI) coming from that 36.4% strike rate. Incidentally, 38 of those 99 runners were fillies, of which 15 (39.5%) were victorious producing 28.1pts (+73.9% ROI) profit.

The reason I mentioned that the girls were outperforming the boys is simply because both of Signor Botti's runners here this evening are female!

Summer Dream is a 9/2 shot in the 6.40 race and has a decent chance of breaking her maiden tag at the 13th attempt. She's not a bad sort, but despite being very consistent (7 top 4 finishes at 7f), she always seems to find one or two too good for her. She's pretty well treated now off a mark of 73, which might just do the trick, but I've passed her over in favour of Wakeup Little Suzy.

Wakeup Little Suzy was a comfortably 5 lengths winner on her only other previous outing here at Wolverhampton off a mark of 71. She then stepped up to Class 4 for a couple of runs and performed well without winning at Goodwood (3rd over a mile) and at Kempton (5th over 7f, but eased down once beaten). She drops back down a grade here and runs off a mark only 3lbs higher than her course victory.

The 7 furlongs seemed too short last time out and they way she ran over the mile at Goodwood suggests that todays 8.5f should be more to her liking. I'm told that she's off to the sales next week, so it's in her connections best interests that she runs under optimum conditions today.

I'd expect Wakeup Little Suzy to go off somewhere in the 4/1 to 5/1 area, so I was pleased to see both William Hill and Paddy Power offering 7/1 BOG. At that price, I think there's enough scope for a safety-first E/W bet, so that's my play for today.

If she goes on to win, a 0.5pts E/W bet at 7/1 BOG returns 4.2pts profit, which won't be too far from my anticipated SP, but with the added insurance of the place bet. To see whether it's still viable to go E/W, simply...

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Stat of the Day, 19th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2013

I suggested that Fun Mac would have no problems seeing out 10 furlongs yesterday and I thought he'd be one for further in time.

It was just as well, as the race was actually a shade over 10.5f, having been run on the outer course at Haydock and Fun Mac wandered about that much, he probably ran eleven and a half!

As it was, he ended up under the stands rail all alone and swept home to score by the best part of three lengths, giving us a nice 4pt profit on a horse that was sent off at 100/30.

From one extreme to the other today, after taking the first on yesterday's Haydock card, we're now aiming at the last one of the day in the...

8.50 Wolverhampton

Where the call is a 9/1 E/W BOG bet on Icy Blue who will be ridden by George Chaloner (claiming 5lbs) for Richard Whitaker.

Icy Blue is another of those horses being turned out quickly after a sudden return to form. In other words, these are horses running on the All-Weather within 30 days of a win last time out, when that win came after a string of three or more unplaced efforts..

Basically, it's a case of trainers trying to strike whilst the iron is still hot. Icy Blue won back to back races within 9 days in August 2011 and then failed to score again until his last run 12 days ago, when he won here at Wolverhampton over this same trip and I'm hoping history repeats itself and he does the double again. he actually went 23 races without a win and qualifies for this micro-system via a run of 7 unplaced efforts before winning last time out in a sequence reading 258445451.

Horses fitting this pattern have won 54 of 175 races this year: a strike rate of 30.9% generating level stakes profits of 64.5pts which is equivalent to almost 37% of stakes invested, a decent return and the place strike rate is over 55%.

George Chaloner takes the ride (and 5lbs off) today and he has a good record when riding for Richard Whitaker. Together they have teamed up on 22 horses that have all been sent off at odds of 14/1 or under and 12 of those horses have made the frame: a near 55% place strike rate that has produced 46.5pts (+105.7% ROI) profits for E/W backers, whilst the braver win only punters have been rewarded with 6 wins from 22 (27.3% SR) for 29pts (+131.9% ROI) profit.

Icy Blue is admittedly a temperamental sort and is often one to be trusted, but he has shown in the past that he can follow up a good run with another shortly after and he still looks quite favourably treated at the weights. This doesn't look to be a great race and there's no reason why he cant' at least grab a place, hence the E/W approach today.

I've placed a 0.5pts E/W bet on Icy Blue at 9/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but Bet365 and Stan James are also matching this price , so I'd suggest that you...

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Double Dutch, 12th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 12th October 2013

We got back amongst the winners again yesterday, where even a huge 45p Rule 4 deduction couldn't stop us making a reasonable profit on the day.

Unfortunately, my favoured horse in race 1 (Franciscan) was withdrawn from the action and at odds of around 11/10, this caused the deduction.

This meant that the 3/1 we'd taken on the alternate pick, Sergeant Mattie, was effectively reduced to 1.65/1 or 33/20 if you prefer. He then opened on track as short as 5/4 before eventually winning comfortably at 10/11!

This gave us 2 shots at the second race with a grand total of 1.825pts going onto each pick. First choice Icon Dance faded badly late on to finish 4th, but it was the second choice who saved the day again.

We'd taken 9/4 on Miguel Grau and he was very impressive, staying on strongly to win by 8 lengths going away at odds of 5/2.

Your first 30 days for just £1

This ensured a 6.39 pts overall return, courtesy of the 5/2 single and the 8.28/1 double.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Sergeant Mattie: won at 33/20 (SP 10/11)
Franciscan: non-runner
---------------------------------
Miguel Grau: won at 5/2
Icon Dance: unplaced

Trial to date:

37 winning selections from 133 = 27.82%
10 winning doubles in 37 days = 27.03%

Stakes: 72.5pts
Returns: 66.17pts

P/L : -6.33pts (-8.73% ROI)

If we can achieve back to back successes as we have done several times before, we could very well threaten to get into profit after these races today...

3.10 Newmarket

It's very hard to see anything other than this becoming a 2-horse race between War Command and Outstrip. Between the pair, they have five wins, as second and a third from their seven outings. They have 3 wins and a second from 4 Group 2 efforts, whilst War Command was third on his Group 1 bow.

I don't think is anywhere near the strongest renewal of this event, which is a shame as it lacks real depth. Best odds of 6/5 and 7/4 with the nearest rival out at 9/1 would tend to back up my thoughts.

6.50 Wolverhampton

It won't make for a massive double today, but I'm struggling to see how Shyron, a 6/4 shot, could lose this one. He comes here in good nick, having shed his maiden tag over this course and distance nine days ago. It's a similar standard of race and the same 7lb claimer jockey is on board. The horse has, of course, been hit with a 5lb rise in the weights, which might be the fly in the ointment to allow Sweet Amaalie to turn the tables on the selection.

She was third in that race here nine days ago and she as only headed inside the final furlong. She's expected to come on for that run and as she only went down by less than length, any improvement could see Sweet Amaalie go close on better terms at 9/2.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
War Command / Shyron @ 5.50 with BetVictor, Stan James and Betfred
War Command / Sweet Amaalie @ 12.10 with BetVictor and Betfred
Outstrip / Shyron @ 6.57 with Stan James
Outstrip / Sweet Amaalie @ 15.13 with Bet365

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2013

Our 100/30 shot Harristown had little/no friends in the market yesterday as he drifted out to a race SP of 5/1. He made an absolute mockery of those odds under a good, patient ride from Kielan Woods, who kept him handy without really exerting him. He took the lead between the last two hurdles, set off for home and was uncatchable, winning by a good 9 lengths.

He could probably have won by far more had he wanted to, but it was a welcome 5pt boost to the bank, which I aim to build on this evening in the...

8.20 Wolverhampton

Where I've taken 3/1 BOG with BetVictor about Marco Botti's filly More Aspen.

Marco has a good recent record with his more-fancied runners here at Wolverhampton and what I mean by more fancied are the ones running at odds of 6/1 or under. In fact in the 2011/13 period he has had 47 winners from his 138 runners in that price bracket here at Wolverhampton: a 34.1% strikerate and level stakes profits of 46.2pts are the equivalent of 33.5% of all stakes put down.

Without restricting the odds parameters too far (and inviting any accusations of backfitting!), if we disregard those who ran below 13/8 (we wouldn't pick those for SotD anyway!) the figures evolve to 34/117, a slightly lower strike rate of 29.1%, but an increased ROI of 36.4% courtesy of a 42.6pts profit.

Marco actually runs two horses here this evening: 9/2 shot Tez has a decent enough chance on his handicap debut in the 6.20 race, but I'm siding with the later runner: More Aspen.

More Aspen also fits the bill for another subsection of horses that I like to back, the ones i dub the "Back To Form" horses. Regular readers are probably bored of reading the rules of this microsystem by now, but just in case...

The horse should have won last time out and within the last month. That win should have come after a string (minimum of 3) of unplaced efforts and will be fancied enough by the market to be sent off at 6/1 or under.

More Aspen's form line reads 5551, three modest efforts in 6f maidens, before scoring on her nursery debut here over course and distance 22 days ago on her first step up to this 7f trip. She won pretty cosily that day and the manner in which she ran on to close the race out suggested to me that a 6lb rise wouldn't be enough to stop her today.

Horses fitting this "Back To Form" profile on the all-weather have 48 of 158 races (30.4%) this year, recording level stakes profits of 57.3pts, or 36.2% of stakes. the figures for Wolverhampton alone are 16/52 = 30.8% SR and 16.75pts (+32.2% ROI) profit.

If we imposed a fairly restrictive (but similar to our usual SotD range) set of odds ie 5/2 to 6/1, the 2013 results are as follows:
All UK A/W Meetings: 30 winners from 107 = a 28% strike rate yielding 62pts profit for an ROI of 57.97%
Just Wolverhampton: 11 winners from 30 = a 36.67% strike rate yielding 25.85pts profit for an ROI of 86.17%

As at the top, I'm on More Aspen at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, but those odds are quite widely available, so my advice would be to...

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Here is today's racecard!

 

Double Dutch, 11th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 11th October 2013

A day of disappointment yesterday, despite Billybuster making all in the opener to win a shade cosily, but the joy was tempered by the fall at the last by our second pick, Do The Bookies.

And then further bad news came in race 2 as both our selections were undone by Tamarkuz and the best we could manage was 2nd and 3rd in a 4-horse race: not good! So, no double landed and not even a consoltion prize of an Exacta.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Billybuster: won at 2/1 (SP 13/8)
Do The Bookies: fell
---------------------------------
Ehtedaam: 2nd at 6/4 (SP 11/8)
Snowboarder: 3rd at 11/10 (SP Evs)

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Trial to date:

35 winning selections from 130 = 26.92%
9 winning doubles in 36 days = 25.00%

Stakes: 70.5pts
Returns: 59.78pts

P/L : -10.72pts (-15.21% ROI)

We could do with another winning day to arrest the recent slide and hopefully I've got just the right balance today...

5.00 Carlisle

Franciscan was a useful performer on the Flat for Luca Cumani before switching to hurdling, where he won on debut last time out. Having won three times over 1m4f, he'll not be found wanting for ground speed and his presence should ensure a decent enough pace is maintained. He won at 4/9 at Bangor almost 7 weeks ago on his hurdles bow and although that race didn't look particularly strong (just three ran!), the runner-up Saint Thomas is 2/2 since, including a 15 lengths victory also at Bangor 17 days later. Franciscan should improve for that first effort and is expected to take this one at 6/5 with BetVictor.

The consistent Sergeant Mattie is the likeliest challenger here and at 3/1 with Stan James might offer a little value. He won an Irish point to point before being sold for over £40,000 (so somebody rates him!) and has subsequently been placed in both his bumper outings to date. His yard is in great form (10 winners and 7 placed from 21 in the last fortnight) and his jockey is showing a 9.15pts level stakes profit this season.

8.10 Wolverhampton

A pretty poor looking maiden here, but the consistent (633432) Icon Dance holds the best of the form of those on show today and runs for a yard showing signs of a belated return to form. This Sixties Icon filly ran on well in defeat last time out and it is hoped that the step up in trip will be enough to shake that maiden tag. The market seems to agree, as she's currently the favourite with the 11/8 on offer from BetVictor the best around.

Of the rest, I'd probably plump for Miguel Grau, who comes back from a lengthy break and runs his first race for Roger Varian, who is pretty good at getting rested horses to fire first time. This one was 4th to Tamarkuz (who won one of our DD races yesterday!) here over 7f in September 2012 in what was his best effort to date and the application of blinkers is expected to help him in what really is a poor contest. It shouldn't take much winning and at 9/4 (Stan James), Miguel Grau is my plan B.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Franciscan / Icon Dance @ 5.23 with BetVictor
Franciscan / Miguel Grau @ 6.60 with BetVictor
Sergeant Mattie / Icon Dance @ 9.00 with Stan James
Sergeant Mattie / Miguel Grau @ 13.00 with Stan James

Double Dutch, 7th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th October 2013

Ballyalton was leading Milord home for another of 1-2 finishes we've had recently, until Milord crashed through the 3rd hurdle from home and ended up in a heap on the floor, leaving Ballyalton with an easy run in and win at an SP of 2/1.

The fact we'd got at 5/2 meant we'd a handy 1.75pts now staked on our fancied runners at Kelso, but Mister Mistopheles was disappointing back in 6th place and Sendiym was reeled in with less than 20 yards to go by fast-finishing 28/1 shot Honourable Gent.

Great news for those of you on the winner, but it meant we were a cricket pitch shy of a 9.5/1 double which would have reduced by current losses by another 44%!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Ballyalton: won at 5/2 (SP 2/1)
Milord: fell
---------------------------------
Sendiym: 2nd at 2/1
Mister Mistopheles: unplaced

Trial to date:

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30 winning selections from 114 = 26.32%
8 winning doubles in 32 days = 25.00%

Stakes: 62.5pts
Returns: 49.78pts

P/L : -12.72pts (-20.35% ROI)

As I look out of window here onto the surrounding farmland, I can see a few horses running round the fields and I wonder if their own private races aren't as good a quality as what's on offer elsewhere today.

Monday's are generally poor fayre, but flat racing at the scrag end of the season in October certainly takes the biscuit.

That said, each of today's 23 races will have a winner, so let's try to find a couple, starting in the...

2.50 Windsor

Elusive Guest, Oasis Fantasy and Throne Room all hold entries for next year's Derby and the three look a cut above the rest of the field here. I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish as the first three home, so I have to make sure I don't discard the winner!

Throne Room (6/4 with Stan James) is my pick here, he's a half-brother to Nathaniel and big things are likely to be expected of him, but he has to start somewhere. He was 4th in a decent enough maiden at Yarmouth on debut almost 3 weeks ago and looked like he needed a longer trip, so the extra furlong and a half should fit the bill nicely.

Of the other two, I'm going to side with Oasis Fantasy, who also has the benefit of recent race experience when beaten by less than 2 lengths on debut and is an ideal back-up at 9/2 (BetVictor).

(Elusive Guest will win races, but hopefully not this one! :D)

5.00 Wolverhampton:

This should all revolve around the pair of three-year olds at the head of the market, where I fancy Train Hard (5/2 Boylesports) to get the better of Inherited (also 5/2, but with Paddy Power). They have the same recent form of 332, but Train Hard is more lightly raced and subsequently less exposed at this level.

Train Hard comes here after a narrow defeat at Bath a week ago, when he was he headed 100yds from the end of a 13f race, the drop back to 12f should be critical for him here today, whilst Inherited has been improving with each run and is knocking on the door of his first win. The booking of Ryan Moore is a definite boost to his chances here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Throne Room / Train Hard @ 8.13 with Stan James
Throne Room / Inherited @ 8.75 with Stan James
Oasis Fantasy / Train Hard @ 17.88 with Bet365, BetVictor and Coral
Oasis Fantasy / Inherited @ 19.25 with William Hill

Double Dutch, 5th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th October 2013

Yesterday's results helped to cheer me up a bit, but I'm still feeling a bit rough! Hopefully more medicine will come in the form of some more winners today?

It was a 12.13/1 double yesterday to take our recent run to 6 winners from the last 12, garnering over 13pts profit in the process: a run I'm keen to maintain today.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Cailin Annamh: won at 11/4 (SP 5/2)
Jennies Jewel: 2nd at 11/8
(Incidentally, the Exacta paid £7.20)
---------------------------------
Parish Hall: won at 5/2 (SP 7/4)
Afonso de Sousa: 3rd at 13/8 (SP 5/4)

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Trial to date:

28 winning selections from 107 = 26.17%
8 winning doubles in 30 days = 26.67%

Stakes: 58.5pts
Returns: 48.28pts

P/L : -10.22pts (-17.47% ROI)

Today we're staying in England for two flat races, one on turf and one on the All-Weather, kicking off with the...

1.40 Redcar

Where a couple of withdrawals has rendered this race (in my opinion, at least) a two-horse race between the top two on the racecard and in the betting. Of those in this race with previous racecourse experience, Erroneous and Alisios have the best form to date, having both finished second last time out. They both look likely to improve for their recent runs and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1-2 finish in that order.

The bookies seem to agree with me, as they're only offering 2/1 and 11/4 respectively for horses in a 17-runner maiden: pretty short odds indeed, but ideal double material.

7.00 Wolverhampton:

Sees Let Me In turned out quickly after an impressive win here at Wolverhampton on Thursday evening, when he scored at 9/2 and the margin of victory could well have been more than the eventual 2.5 lengths, such was his dominance. He goes a furlong further today, but seemed to have plenty left in the tank and the 6lb extra he is burdened with, is virtually offset by the booking of  Daniel Muscutt and his 5lb claim. Daniel's no mug round this track either and should steer his mount home for his hat trick at 7/4 (Boylesports)

Pour La Victoire was third in that same race on Thursday and looks the most likely to challenge this evening, he's very consistent with five consecutive top three finishes and runs off the same mark of 53 as he did two days ago, which is still a pound lower than when he was second in a stronger race than this at Brighton two starts ago. As a backup selection, odds of 3/1 are interesting here,

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Erroneous / Let Me In @ 7.92 with Boylesports
Erroneous / Pour La Victoire @ 12.00 with BetVictor and BetFred
Alisios / Let Me In @ 10.40 with SportingBet
Alisios / Pour La Victoire @ 16.00 with SportingBet

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2013

My woeful week continued yesterday with Royal Peculier running out of steam and struggling under the burden of carrying 10 stone. He ran well enough until headed 2 furlongs from home, but he'd already run his race and had nothing left to offer.

Once headed, he weakened considerably and couldn't even hang on to 3rd place in the closing stages, finally coming home 4th at 11/2 having drifted from our 4/1 BOG. The official margin of his defeat was 4.75 lengths.

Slightly bruised, but undeterred, it's the same venue today for another late show in the...

9.00 Wolverhampton

Despite yesterday's losing bet, the stats are still strong concerning these horses turned out within a month of a return to winning ways.

To briefly recap: 3 or more successive unplaced finishes followed by a win and then turned back out within 30 days on the All-Weather.

This year the figures from those criteria read as 45 winners from 153 with that strike rate of 29.4% producing level stakes profits of 49.99pts or 32.67% of stakes, based on all qualifiers priced between evens and 6/1.

There is just the one qualifier today: Living The Life, a 3yr old filly who showed some promise in her 4 maiden outings (finishes of 4221) before failing to make the frame in any of her first four attempts at handicap level (4658). As a result, her handicap mark dropped to just 70 for her latest run, where she took full advantage to score at Leicester, winning by a good 6 lengths yet was easing down considerably towards the finish.

That race only took place on Monday (5 days ago) which brings me to another stat that will support today's selection.

In the last three years, fillies turned back out in lower grade events within 5 days of a win did particularly well. The criteria here are as follows: fillies, running in Classes 4 to 7, not National Hunt races and won last time out which was in the last five days.

That set of specific instructions when also applied to horses priced between evens and 6/1 has thrown up 45 winners from 122 races, a strike rate of 36.9% and achieved profits of 65.3pts, a return of 53.52% of stakes.

Despite absolutely scooting home last time out, Living The Life isn't penalised for that win, as it came in an apprentices' handicap event, meaning she can turn back out off the same mark of 70 and with Monday's jockey John Lawson on board again, his ability to claim a further 7lbs should help the cause that little bit more.

If she comes here in the same mood as Monday she'll certainly be hard to catch over a trip where her record reads 411 and she is highly likely to be sent off as favourite.

I should also add that trainer Jamie Osborne's fillies tend to run very well here too, a claim backed up by the 14 winners from the 49 fillies he has sent here in the last 4 years. The impressive 28.6% strike rate giving rise to level stakes profits of some 61.8pts, an eye-catching 126% of stakes.

As of 1.30 am, the best price on offer for our 1pt win bet on Living The Life was the 9/4 BOG at bet365, but the market hadn't been fully formed at that time. I'm taking that 9/4, because I think it will shorten, so please be sure to...

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