Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2013
Davy Russell's well-timed ride on Don Cossack gave us another nice winner at 11/4 yesterday comfortably beating the 13/8 SP he was returned at.
This was the perfect end to a very good week here at SotD and also gave December the flying start I wanted: a start I'm confident of maintaining with today's hat-trick bid running in the...
As I sat down to write today's piece, I suddenly became aware that Matt had also selected this horse for The Shortlist, but I'm going to stick with my selection, as the two selection methods are (in my opinion, anyway!) unrelated.
I'd also like to think that us both siding with Full Speed at 3/1 BOG (Bet365) adds more confidence to the respective bets.
Matt selected the horse via race profiling, but my approach is via a couple of unrelated stats.
Firstly, Full Speed is a male horse running in a Class 6 A/W handicap and isn't changing class by more than one grade (in fact he isn't changing at all). He's top rated officially and will go off as either favourite or joint favourite for this one.
Horses fitting that above profile have won 231 out of 656 races since the turn of 2010. This 35.2% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 103.24pts, or 15.74% of stakes, whilst refining the selections to those priced 13/8 or above yields a slightly lower strike rate of 30.25 % via a 144/476 record, but the ROI improves to a very healthy 24.2% courtesy of a 115.2pts profit.
A 24%+ ROI from backing favourites has to be a good thing, doesn't it?
As this contest is an amateur riders contest, there'll be a claimer in the saddle today and our jockey takes 5lbs off for us here and trainer Philip Kirby is one of the leading exponents at using the 5lb claiming jockeys to good effect.
In handicap contests this year alone, he has employed the services of a 5lb claimer on 30 occasions when the horse was priced at 6/1 or under, netting 8 winners for a strike rate of 26.67% and the ensuing profits run to 11.88pts, or a very healthy 39.6% of all stakes invested.
The combination of the two stats are enough to convince me to place a 1pt win bet on Full Speed at 3/1 BOG with Bet365, but I'm very aware that there are other bookies out there, so to see their prices, simply...