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Stat of the Day, 6th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/04/13

Stat of the Day: 06/04/13

Stat of the Day, 6th April 2013

Well, yesterday's performance by Dolphin Village seemed to sum up my own personal form quite well: ridden hard but made no impression! All joking apart, our mount never looked like making any headway into the race at all. He eventually finished 3.5 lengths outside the places and a further 5 lengths away from the eventual winner.

I'm leaving for Egypt at 9.00am Saturday morning, so I'm posting this selection up earlier than normal (ie 10.30pm on the Friday!) and we're going back to the all-weather for an evening encounter. It's a Class 5 fillies' handicap and the trip is a shade under 6 furlongs for the 8 runners contesting the...

7.20 Wolverhampton:

Saturday's stat is short and sweet and goes something like this:

When Silvestre de Sousa rides for Brian Ellison at Wolverhampton, the results are very good. The partnership has currently scored six winners from nineteen making a healthy profit of some 23.35pts in the process, a profit of 122.9% over stakes invested.

If we look at handicap contests only, the strike rate remains very similar (five winners from sixteen), but the profits rise to 24.25pts and the ROI to 151.6%.

Mr de Sousa is booked in for three rides here, whilst Brian sends two horses to race. However, they only combine for the one race with Al Freej being the selection.

Al Freej is a lightly raced 4 yr old filly making only her seventh start on the all-weather, having already secured two victories and two runner-up positions. She is a confirmed front-runner and is very handily drawn today. If she can hit the front early on, the chasing pack might well find her tough to overhaul.

There doesn't seem to be any standout horses in the field and whilst our selection is likely to be a little too short to hedge our bets with an E/W punt, I think that she has what's required to take this one if things go her way.

As of 10.45pm the best price available was 9/2 BOG with Bet365, so I've had a 1pt win bet with them on Al Freej, but considering I have written this over 20 hours before the race, it might be wise to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.20 Wolverhampton

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2013

Stat of the Day: 22/03/13

Stat of the Day: 22/03/13

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2013

Mixed emotions yesterday, as Thomas Wild secured a place at 6/1 (we were on at 15/2, of course), beating both the market leaders in due course. This delight was slightly tempered by the fact that the 16/1 outsider of the six runners had romped home in front. nevertheless, it's another 0.44pts in the kitty and on to today.

Which is a trip to the West Midlands for a 9.5f Class 5 handicap, as six runners contest the...

7.30 Wolverhampton

Gerard Butler has an excellent record at Wolverhampton in recent times, and has been represented 41 times here to good effect in the 18 months or so. However, he has just the one runner today, Welsh Sunrise, who features in tonight's fourth race..

Thirteen (31.7%) of Gerard's forty-one runners have won here in that timeframe for profits of 38.75% = 94.5% ROI. The profit figures from handicap races alone are also very impressive at 23pts from 27 races (85.2%)

Welsh Sunrise makes only her second appearance tonight, having won quite cosily on debut over course and distance six weeks ago and she'll be looking to build on that performance today.

The very able Luke Morris is on board again tonight and his experience should help our unexposed filly along.

I was expecting a bet of around the 3/1 mark today, and a bit of money seems to have started coming in already for this one. However, as things stand, we can still get 11/2 about Welsh Sunrise (from an earlier 6/1).

Considering I was expecting to bet 1pt at 3/1, the call is a safety first 0.5pts E/W bet on Welsh Sunrise at 11/2 BOG, as a win will still give us 3.44pts profit, but a place will still give us a small 19% return. I've placed my bet with Stan James, who will also give you a free tenner to bet if you open an account and bet a tenner.

stanjames.com

Of course, prices can change, so make sure you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton

 

Monday Placepot, 28th January 2013

Placepot Picks

Placepot Picks

Well, this series has started quite interestingly. In our first two attempts at the placepot, we managed to find all six winners in week one at Wolverhampton, and notch the placepot again in week two at Plumpton. Alas, on both occasions, the placepot dividend was less than perfect and my desire to publish a 'winning' combination led to more permutations than ideal, I suspect.

So, with a couple of weeks experience behind us, and after a week of quiet reflection last Monday, we'll take a bit more of a risk this week in search of a bit more reward, and slim the pemutation down to a more manageable number of lines.

Again, it's Wolverhampton that we go at, as I'm not much of a fan of Kempton's all weather circuit (read, I can't seem to find winners there!).

Leg 1 - 1.40
The first of two low grade amateur rider sprint handicaps, and that sets the tone for what could be a trappy afternoon's fare here at Dunstall Park.

This race is made more interesting by the prospect of the short-priced favourite, Hab Reeh, being a non-stayer at this six furlong distance. Whilst Hab Reeh did win a six furlong race, that was a maiden handicap on fast ground, and races don't get much worse than maiden handicaps!

In his Wolves 6f spins, he's been outpaced when trying to lead. I'm not sure if they'll send him to the front here but, if they do, I think he'll be out of the frame. However, with a couple of fancied horses now non-runners, he still has to make the ticket. He's ridden by Serena Brotherton who is one of very few jockeys that are trustworthy at this level.

I'll support him on my main ticket with the consistent Miserere Mei who, along with Hab Reeh, has the best jockey in Simon Walker. He finds winning tough, but is usually thereabouts and it would be a surprise to see him out of the top four or five again here.

Prigsnov Dancer is interesting at a price, and makes the B ticket, as does Glennten, who has run well on both starts over course and distance (including one win).

A - 1, 8
B - 2, 12

Leg 2 - 2.10
The second division of the same handicap, and we're faced with the same conundrum. Lord Buffhead, the joint favourite, looks like he much prefers five furlongs to six and, with a full field of bad pace judges charging from trap to line, he might get run off his hooves. All four of his wins have been at five furlongs, and his sole decent run over this course and distance was in a short seven runner field when he was still beaten nearly five lengths. Not for me.

Against him, I like the look of the other joint jolly in the early exchanges, Artful Lady, and also Whiskey Junction.

Artful Lady has only had two runs here and finished second, beaten a head in a seven furlong race, and then won over this trip four starts back. The pistes at Kempton and Lingfield are a bit quicker than here, and it might be that she's far better suited by the deeper dirt in the Midlands.

Whiskey Junction doesn't have an ideal draw for his like to lead style, but if the latest Carson off the production line can get him to the front, he'll take some catching. He's been in the first three in 26 of his 68 career starts, and four of his last eight. This won't take too much winning, and at least six furlongs is his trip.

A - 2, 6

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 3 - 2.40
It doesn't get easier, with a non-runner here making this a seven runner contest, and therefore we only have two places to shoot at, with four horses trading at 5/1 or shorter.

Luckily, there are three which look complete no-hopers, so we can at least narrow it down to the short odds quartet. Of those, the most likely winner is Hiddon Coin, David O'Meara's all weather improver. Having his first start on the sand last time over track and trip, he readily pulled clear of the re-opposing and consistent, Windforpower. That one is quirky enough however, and has needed the considerable riding skills of champion all weather rider, Luke Morris, to get him home in his two recent wins.

Today, Joe Fanning takes over and, whilst he's a very good jockey, he doesn't know this fellow... and this fellow takes some knowing. He's capable of making the frame, but not a reliable proposition so to do. Windforpower's form is tied in closely with that of Marmot Bay, a horse which might be a tad less capable than the first named, but is a good bit more reliable.

In truth, I don't really like either of them in the context of this race, and I prefer Bill Turner's Hillbilly Boy. Bill has saddled two horses in this contest in the last four years, and both of them won. Now, that might be coincidence, as I doubt it's a race people look to when planning campaigns (!), but he at least knows what's required to win it.

Hillbilly Boy was a well beaten fifth of five on his last start, but that was his first trip to the track for six months and he's sure to have needed it. More match fit today, and dropped in grade, the Boy is the highest rated horse in the race and fully ten pounds clear of the third highest rated. As such, he gets a space on the B ticket billing, with Hiddon Coin on A.

A - 1
B - 2

Leg 4 - 3.10
A seven runner maiden, featuring exposed form versus newcomers from respected stables, makes this fiendish. On the face of it, Bouyrin has the best form in the book, and is most likely to reproduce it here. He gets tentatively scribbled onto A.

The favourite is Mark Johnston's well bred but unraced Henry The Aviator, unsurprisingly a son of Henrythenavigator. Henry cost 130,000 guineas in April last year, and that's an almighty whack of cash in the context of a race like this. If he's anything close to matching his price tag with his ability, he should win and win well. A.

It would be far from a shock if Willie Haggas' Botteen was good enough to trouble the judge first time up in this race, but I've got two bullets to fire here and I've fired them at Bouyrin and Henry.

A - 3, 7

Leg 5 - 3.40
In my personal placepot perms, I normally go with what I call 'one brave race'. This is a race in which I 'bank' on one horse making the frame for me. And today, that race will be leg five, a ten runner seven furlong handicap, and that horse will be Bussa, a highly consistent type.

Bussa has been in the first four in his last seven starts, and he acts perfectly well on this track, as he showed when just beaten a head last time over course and distance.

With the overnight favourite, Jack My Boy, pulled out (he had a car park draw), and the second favourite, Restless Bay, also having a poor draw to overcome - they start the seven furlong races here on the crown of a bend - it looks set fair for Bussa to hit the board once more, assuming the exertions of his run on Friday haven't left their mark.

Of the rest, Needwood Ridge is better than a 25/1 shot, but I'm siding with Bussa as a banker.

A - 8

Leg 6 - 4.10
Just when you thought it couldn't get any trickier, the 'lucky last' is a four runner, win only contest. With all four closely rated - and certainly closely weighted against their ratings - and all of them wearing headgear, three of them for the first time, it's anybody's guess what will happen here!

None of them have won over this trip, and only Amelia Hull has won at all..! I'm covering all of them: Amelia Hull and  Mick Dundee on A, and Handsome Stranger and Silk Scarf on B.

This means that I'm guaranteed to win a share of the pool if I get to the sixth leg with one B line or less used that in getting there. Consequently, I'll be able to insure my position in leg 5 by laying Bussa for a place, if the dividend looks worth winning.

If that last paragraph made no sense to you, don't worry. I'll explain it another day. (I did actually spend an hour and a half recording a 'how I research the placepot' video last night, only to find when I came to edit it that I'd not picked up the sound..!!!).

A - 2, 4
B - 3, 6

So, here's how the placepot looks today:

Basic Version, A’s only

2 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 = 16 bets

Basic Version, A’s and B’s

4 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 4 = 128 bets

Advanced Version, using ticket builder

This is using a 20p base stake, but you could do it for as low as 5p's. Note the weighting on tickets 1-4. Ticket 1, all A's, has a 4x weighting. In other words, I have staked this to four times my base stake of 20p (i.e. 80p per line). Ticket 2-4 have a 2x weighting and are therefore 40p per line.

Wolverhampton placepot perm

Wolverhampton placepot perm

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2013

SotD : 28/01/13

SotD : 28/01/13

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2013

Well, the apparent good thing that was Pont Alexandre won in that manner, but Sizing Gold took the forecast position and paid us place pieces at 9/1 (9/5 on the place part).

Not much to go at today, with just Wolves (again!) and Kempton (again!!) surviving the snow/waterlogging, and it's a tentative effort in the...

4.40 Wolverhampton

A six runner mile and a quarter handicap, and four recent course winners in opposition. So, clearly, SotD is going with one of the non-winners!

Ed Dunlop is a trainer to side with here, as his 21% strike rate (35 winners from 170 runners) attests. 21 of those winners were 3yo's, like today's entry, Abraq, and they were collectively worth a profit of 31.5 points.

So far in seven starts, Abraq has yet to finish in the first three, but this is not nearly as strong a race as it might look from a cursory study of the digits to the left of the names. Abraq started life in very good Newmarket maidens, so was clearly highly regarded. Since then, he'd dropped from an initial handicap mark of 73 down to a workable 67.

In truth, Abraq probably won't be getting too many chances for his current trainer - a man from whom we bought Khajaaly a few years ago when he had a similar profile (three wins since) - and he really needs to show something this afternoon.

Despite the short field, there are a couple who like to go on and a couple more who like to race prominently, which is good news considering our chap is normally held up. Stevie Donohoe does the steering today, and he's a fair man to have on side when the money's down. I'm not sure that the money will be down today (except ours, of course), but I think Abraq has a better chance than his price suggests and, with only two places to play for, I'm siding win only at 17/2 BOG with BetVictor.

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.40 Wolverhamton

 

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2013

SotD : 26/01/13

SotD : 26/01/13

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2013

A lot better yesterday with Tyrur Ted, and just mugged by the favourite, having been sent off at 8/1. Our advised best odds guaranteed each way bet took advantage of the better starting price, and returned a small profit on the day.

It's a similar drill at the same track today, in the...

5.00 Wolverhampton

A horse for the course today, and specifically a horse for the course and distance. Outlaw Torn is a specialist here, and has been in the frame in five out of his six runs over track and trip, and just about all for today's rider, Robbie Fitzpatrick.

Indeed, Fitzpatrick's form on Outlaw Torn is 381311, with the last four being here at Wolves.

The horse's form at Wolves is 043313115. That last time out fifth was when the pace was too much up front for our boy, and today he ought to be able to sit behind a quick early gallop behind Miami Gator and Haywain.

BetVictor's 8/1 BOG offer is too good to pass up, and we'll be playing each way once more, on the back of Outlaw's consistent track record.

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Wolverhampton

 

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2013

SotD : 25/01/13

SotD : 25/01/13

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2013

We're not really getting much of a run for the shekels this week, and Club House yesterday was another who never got competitive. We're still nicely in front on the month, but need to work on the latest mini-cold snap.

It's all weather only today, so we'll head to Wolverhampton's opener, the...

4.30 Wolverhampton

It's another SotD revisited today, with a former non-runner returning under very similar condition. Frank Sheridan is the man with the +100 points record with older horses (4yo+) at the course, with 20 winners from 154 runners. Sheridan trains here at Dunstall Park, so it's no surprise his best numbers on this strip.

The horse in question is Tyrur Ted, an ex-Irish nag who was beaten 31 lengths last time out. On the face of it, he's a mountain to climb then, but as usual, that's not the whole story.

Tyrur Ted was actually a pretty fair hurdler in Ireland, but his flat distance is a bit shorter than the mile and a half he spun over that last day. In fact, something close to today's nine furlongs looks ideal, and this is a truly basement affair.

Prior to that long loss last time, Tyrur Ted had finished just a length and a half back over ten furlongs. That form line gives him every chance in what is a weaker race than your average seller.

With a fair bit of pace in the race, I can see Ted being held up and coming with a late run to mow down... well, hopefully all of his rivals, but at least most of them. As such, each way is the play, at a general 6/1 BOG.

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Wolverhampton

 

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 17/01/13

Stat of the Day: 17/01/13

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2013

SotD's 'binary January' continued yesterday, as Laura Mongan took her own personal binary record in that particular race to 01010: two wins and three last placed horses, as First Avenue was unsuited by the slow pace and never got involved.

Today, with a change of chair and frost in the air, I'm swerving the turf in case it's cancelled and heading for the beach at Dunstall Park, and the...

7.00 Wolverhampton

A very trappy Class 4 handicap is not ideal, but there's really very little to go at today, so go at it we shall.

The horse for this course is Michael Easterby's Desert Vision, a 47 race veteran. He's run fifteen of those 47 races here, and won five of them. Indeed, his full course record is a supremely consistent 562811212131332. Thus, in his last eleven races here, he's not been out of the frame. And he's won three of his seven starts at this trip.

This afternoon's contest sees him race two grades below the level in which he was third - beaten less than two lengths - on his penultimate start. True, he was a disappointing second when sent off as an odds-on chance in a claimer last time, but he looks sure to run his race again this evening.

Pace in the race could come from the SotD stalwart, Dubawi Island or perhaps Spifer or Copperwood, with Desert Vision's own prominent run style matched by his middle draw. Graham Gibbons knows his way round Dunstall Park better than most, with a 19% win and 38% place strike rate.

After a win or nowhere sort of month so far, Desert Vision is the type to be there or thereabouts almost inevitably, so each way is the only way to play. 6/1 was the best available as I wrote this at 11pm last night, so make sure you click the link below to find the pick of the odds when you read SotD...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

 

 

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 11/01/13

Stat of the Day: 11/01/13

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2013

Red Somerset was a clunker yesterday, I'm afraid. Friendless in the on-course market and slow away from the stalls. The veteran never got involved in the race until it was far too late and even then when staying on at the death only passed one rival.

We're staying on the A/W today, but we're heading North to the West Midlands for Dunstall Park's last race of the evening. We've currently got ten runners set to battle it out over a mile and a half (plus 50 yards, of course!) for the...

7.30 Wolverhampton

Of all the trainers with runners at Wolverhampton tonight, David O'Meara possesses the best strike rate in the last two years. In this time he has saddled up 13 winners from 41 (31.7%) and has returned a 17pt profit at level stakes = 41.5%.

In fact, he has been represented here at Wolverhampton thirteen times in 2013 already, recording nine wins and three places, such is the current form of the yard.

David has two runners at the track this evening and whilst Art History has a decent chance of a place in the 6.30 race (6/1 at present), our focus is on the quick re-appearance of Icy Quiet an hour later.

Icy Quiet ran really well when finishing a close third to the re-opposing Easydoesit over this course and distance on Monday and is now well weighted to reverse that defeat. This bay mare was only beaten by a length and a quarter on Monday and now tackles her conqueror 6lbs better off, so a repeat of that run should be enough today.

I expect her to attract some decent market support as the day goes on, so the advice is a 1pt win bet on Icy Quiet at the current (8.45am) best price of 9/2 BOG with Bet Victor, as she's already as low as 10/3 in places, but for further information, please......

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton

 

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 4/1/13

Stat of the Day: 7/1/13

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2013

Well, SotD has found a bit of form, with winners advised at 11/2 (returned 5/1) and 3/1 (returned 2/1) over the weekend. My own personal run is three in a row, having nominated 16/1 Jupiter Rex a week ago. That one runs again at Taunton today, but is odds on to prevail and, whilst he probably will, I never back odds on in handicaps, despite many of them winning (Gevrey Chambertin at Wincanton on Saturday, for instance).

To today, and the hat-trick bid for Stat of the Day. It's moderate even by Monday standards today, and I can see a fair number of shorties winning. One race which is truly terrible and looks like an interesting one for a selection is the...

3.20 Wolverhampton

A 0-60 handicap with the favourite having form figures of 0000000, and having beaten just seven of 66 opponents in those runs. That he comes from the John Butler (i.e. gambling) yard, and that he's been backed in a few places, is interesting, but on form, this fellow has little chance, even on his best old runs.

He makes the market for anything else you like in here, and I like one trained on the track (well, 'like' is probably too strong a term, but I do think he's interesting). Frank Sheridan is a man who rewards patient punters on the Wolverhampton beach, as he scores occasionally with big priced nags. He trains right here on the track, so there's never a concern about a horse acting on the surface.

Frank's record round here is profitable, and exclusively with older horses. With four year olds and up, he's had twenty winners from 151 runners here (13%) for a profit of a stonking 103 points! Like I say, he does bang some biggies in.

Today sees the turn or Tyrur Ted, an Irish import to the Sheridan yard. Eight years young now, Ted won a Curragh handicap as a 3yo, and has mostly been hurdling since, a sphere in which he's been in the frame on six of seventeen occasions (winning once). His last run over obstacles was at the 2010 Galway Festival, where he finished mid-division in a competitive event.

He next popped up, in the Sheridan colours, at Kempton more than two years later, in October 2012. Fifth was all he could muster, but he was only beaten a length and a half over today's ten furlong trip. Since then, he ran once more over a mile and a half, where he showed nothing (as a 4/1 poke) and probably 'bounced' (that is, was suffering the effects of a hard race after a long break).

Tyrur Ted has been given a month off to recover, and he's back to ten furlongs, which might be optimal for him. The big field ought to suit his hold up style, and in a desperate race, I think he's each way value at around 14/1 BOG (Bet Victor, Stan James). Or you can take the 16/1 with betinternet as I am (not BOG). Or, as I write, there are bits of 27/1 on Betfair for the win.

Each way the play, officially at the 16/1 betinternet. Of course, make sure you...

[STOP PRESS: betinternet's 16's went almost immediately so, in the interest of fairness, we'll use 14/1 BOG as the odds for this one, should we need to record in the profit column of the ledger.]

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.20 Wolverhampton

 

 

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 4/1/13

Stat of the Day: 5/1/13

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2013

In front for January now, after Amigo - recommended at 11/2 - came home in front at 5/1. Not much to stir the punting loins today, and I'm heading to the beach in the...

2.15 Wolverhampton

It's all about the horse today, and he's a little shorter than some people's tastes, perhaps, but I consider him to represent value all the same.

Lean On Pete is his name, and he's something of a track specialist. Indeed, here at Wolves, his record is 32211.

Over this trip he's 2211, and with today's jockey he's 115 (the 5 being at Kempton, which is a very different surface from Wolves).

There's really not much more to say, except that trainer Ollie Pears is in great form, with a winner (at 16/1) and a second from his last three runners; and that I think 3/1 is about three-quarters of a point bigger than I think he should be. As such, I'm happy to side win only with Lean On Pete...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.15 Wolverhampton

 

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2013

Stat of the Day 2/1/13

Stat of the Day 2/1/13

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2013

Well, our 10/1 E/W shot Theatrical Star almost got 2013 off to a flying start as he attempted to make all for us at Exeter yesterday. He attracted quite a bit of market attention, but the presence of a short-priced favourite at least ensured an SP of 6/1.

He gave us a cracking run for our money, but was unfortunately overhauled in the last 100 yards or so, eventually going down by just over a length. Still, it's a half point profit to start the year as we now turn back to the All-Weather to look at one becoming somewhat of a Course & Distance specialist in today's...

3.40 Wolverhampton

No trainer stats today, but back to one of our occasional "horses for courses" type of selection and today we're looking at Balti's Sister.

Balti's Sister had a largely unsuccessful thirteen race career for Michael Easterby, recording just one victory (at 11/4) from 12 turf outings and winning her only A/W race at 9/2 here at Wolverhampton some 18 months ago.

She moved to Terry Clement's yard last summer and Terry has managed to bring the best out of this 4 yr old bay filly. She was placed second on her debut for the yard in a 6f Lingfield Handicap on good ground back in August and her overall record for the Clement yard now reads as an impressive 221611, with the 6th place finish coming on totally unsuitable heavy ground at Yarmouth over an equally unsuitable 1 mile trip, back at the end of October.

Since she moved to Terry Clement, her three wins from six have produced 8.38pts profit at SP and the 5 places from 6 have rewarded E/W backers to the tune of 14.72pts, so she's clearly a beast in form.

Her overall A/W record now reads 12111 with all five races taking place here at Wolverhampton and producing 14.9pts profit for win backers and 20.85pts for E/W followers. All bar one of those five races have been at today's favoured 7f trip, where her record is 2111 (+10.38pts to win and +15.22pts @ E/W).

Balti's Sister won back to back races over C&D within 16 days in November/December 2012 and despite incurring a 6lb rise, she looks to have strong claims of landing a hat trick in this contest today. Incidentally the rise in weights is compensated by an apprentice's claim of 7lbs from today's jockey Georgean Buckell.

So, we have a quadruple course / triple C&D winner aiming for a hat-trick today running under her preferred conditions. I don't expect her to have all her own way today, but provided the jockey doesn't hold her up for too long and doesn't get into any trouble, I'd expect her to be on the premises when the prizes are given out.

A quick check on the early prices shows that both Boylesports and bet365 are offering a fairly attractive 4/1 BOG, whilst there's 6.4 currently available with betfair. There's not a massive amount of liquidity on the exchanges at present, so the official SotD play today is a 1pt win bet on Balti's Sister at 4/1 BOG. I've got yesterday's winnings in my bet365 account, so I'll use some of that, but please feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Wolverhampton

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2012

Stat of the Day 27/12/12

Stat of the Day 27/12/12

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2012

We had to settle for a third place finish yesterday, after Coole River was backed in from our 4/1 to be a 3/1 jt fav at the off. Due to the shortness of the price, there was no E/W option and it goes down as a loss of 1pt. I think we'd have got second place, but for being badly hampered by a faller late on, but we were never to going to catch the other jt fav Rajdhani Express who won very easily if truth be told and may be one to follow again.

We're going to swerve all this mud and heavy ground today and go back to the West Midlands for a tea time spin on the Polytrack. The race isn't quite as illustrious as others around today, as it's a 13-runner, Class 6 Handicap and the trip is 6 furlongs (give or take 4 yards!) for the...

5.00 Wolverhampton

William Stone is probably not one of the first names you'd think of if you were looking to place a bet at Wolverhampton. His career strike rate of just 11% (4/44) at this track is also less than inspiring. There is, however, a little more comfort in the fact that 19 from 44 E/W bets (43.2%) here have been successful and have generated almost 10pts profit at SP (10.6%).

These E/W figures, whilst profitable, aren't good enough for us to use as reasoning for SotD purposes, but they are long-term results. Mr Stone's more recent record at Wolverhampton offers far more encouragement to us. 2012 has been a pretty good year for William's horses here at Dunstall Park, as an impressive 14 out of 16 runners have made the first five home with ten of them being placed for E/W purposes. This 62.5% place strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 15.5pts at SP (48.4% ROI) and it should also be noted that three of them have gone on to win, giving a further profit of 5.5pts.

Mr Stone's sole entrant today is Imjin River, a pretty consistent performer on the All-Weather himself. He has managed to make the frame on four of six starts this year including two runs over Course & Distance. He suffered a couple of narrow margin defeats on the Polytrack during the autumn, both by less than a length whilst staying on at the end of 6 furlongs.

His last outing here over C&D resulted in a defeat by just 0.75 lengths back in September off a mark just a pound lower than today's OR of 58. This slight rise is, however, more than compensated by the booking of the promising Natasha Eaton, who will take a welcome 5lbs off today.

Imjin River has had a bit of a break (off the track since 9th October) and is expected to come back fresh. He is fitted with a tongue tie for the first time today, which is also expected to help him.

His recent time off, coupled with the fact that both the horse's and trainer's stats are better as E/W bets mean that the prudent option today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Imjin River at 14/1 BOG with William Hill. This price will invariably fluctuate during the day, so please avail yourselves of the opportunity to...

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Stat of the Day, 21st December 2012

Stat of the Day 21/12/12

Stat of the Day 21/12/12

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2012

My personal drought continued yesterday as our selection failed to complete the race. He weakened very quickly after the fourth to last fence, jumped one more and was then pulled up before the penultimate obstacle.

We're looking to an old SotD friend to help us out of the small hole we're sat in, so we're off to the Black Country for a class 6 Fillies' Maiden. It's not the highlight of the card by any means, but there'll still be a winner, which hopefully we can find! The trip today is just 6 yards short of six furlongs and we expect seven runners to contest the.…

 

3.50 Wolverhampton

 

Regular readers of this column will know that Roger Varian is one of my favourites, but I'd only put one of his horses forward if the stats merited the selection. As it is, Roger's record at Wolverhampton is excellent with eleven winners from thirty races (36.67%) for 25pts (83.33%) profit and a total of twenty-two place finishes (73.33%) from that thirty giving E/W backers a profit of some 37.5pts (+62.5%)

Those figures alone are impressive enough to grab my interest, however we need to look at the record when isolated to non-handicap events, as many trainers' figures are skewed towards handicap events after having used these non-handicap races as a testing ground to get a handicap mark!

Yet even still, Mr Varian's record stands up to scrutiny over these races, too. His record at Wolverhampton in non-handicap contests is actually very similar to his overall record here, showing a good level of consistency. His horses have contested nineteen such events, of which he has been victorious on seven occasions (36.84%) and a grand total of sixteen from nineteen have been placed: an amazing place strike rate of 84.21%.

Therefore, I'm immediately on alert when I see that Roger has only one horse declared to run today and that the horse in question (Sherrin) is entered in a non-handicap contest at Wolverhampton.

Sherrin is making only her third appearance today and she showed signs of decent ability when second in a Newmarket 6f maiden in the summer, she was then away from the track for four months, before returning to finish seventh in a maiden at Kempton just 16 days ago. She will have come on for that pipe-opener as she looked like she needed the run that day.

She did wander about a little on that occasion and ran out of steam somewhat as she ran into some traffic problems. She'll be wearing a hood today and if that has the desired effect, her debut run and her breeding (from Refuse To Bend) suggest she should be on the premises.

I'm not concerned about the fitting of the hood so early in her career, Mr Varian has resorted to this tactic here at Wolverhampton in these maiden races twice in the past, with both Havin A Good Time and Afraah going on to win their races.

I'm also not unduly worried about this being Sherrin's first venture onto the Dunstall Park track either: Roger's record with Wolverhampton first-timers is eight wins from twenty-four (33.33%) with a total of 18 of them making the frame (75%).

All the stats point to a decent performance today and barring the world ending at 11.11 this morning 😀 , I'd hope to be collecting some money at around 4pm. As you'd expect, the world is pretty wise to Roger Varian's Wolverhampton exploits, so we're never going to rich off his runners, but Stan James' 3/1 BOG looks very inviting indeed, so the play is a simple 1pt win bet on Sherrin at 3/1 BOG with Stan James, but for all the other odds elsewhere...

 

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Stat of the Day, 13th August 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2012

A good run for our money yesterday, though by the finish Charger needed plugging in, as he could only plug on at the one pace, and finished out of the frame.

Maybe it will be lucky 13 for us today, as we head to dear old Dunstall and the…

6.10 Wolverhampton

Another trainer in form today, this time the excellent Ian Williams. The Worcestershire based trainer has been in fine fettle over the past few days, notching three wins and three further places from twelve runners in the last week.

Tonight he saddles just the one - and that in a seller - and I'm hopeful of a big run.

The beast I'm backing is Spartan King, a four year old Kings Best gelding. He'll be covering a mile and a half against seven rivals so, non-runners notwithstanding, we'll get three places to play for.

Spartan King won six starts back, and since then has been performing mostly with credit, despite form figures which might suggest otherwise.

He was beaten just a length and three quarters last time out, which was only good enough for fifth place, but more importantly which masked what was a pretty good effort.

Previously, he's been second and third here at Wolves, but has yet to get his head in front here.

Franny Norton - a powerhouse jock - takes the ride, so we'll not want from the saddle either.

In what is a truly moderate affair, with a group of thoroughly unreliable punting propositions, I'm happy to take a small chance with a trainer in form and a horse whose price may not factor in the merit of his most recent run.

A BOG best price of 6/1 has some appeal each way, but I think this one might go longer so make sure you bet with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Click here for the latest odds for the 6.10 Wolverhampton.

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 30th July 2012

A nice little tilt on the 'randomizer' button yesterday for SotD followers, as 25/1 advised poke Lodgician plugged on for third at a returned SP of 10/1. It did look like a bookie 'rick' (when they make a mistake with the odds) and so it proved, with us claiming a little over 6/1 for the place element.

It's really trappy today, and I was tempted to side with Dermot Weld at Galway (more on that at the bottom) but I'm going to head for the beach, and the…

9.05 Wolverhampton

It's horses for courses tonight, and a chap who may not be the force he was at the age of eight, but who absolutely loves it round Dunstall Park.

Majuro has run here five times in his career, and his finishing positions are 13111. He won a Class 3 handicap as recently as last season, and his last run - a bold front-running third to a well-handicapped rival, beaten three lengths - shows he's still in some heart. Today he races in Class 5 company.

The '3' was in a Class 2 six furlong handicap, and the other four 1's were all plus or minus 100 yards of nine furlongs of this course and distance.

He's won his last three races here, granted in sellers and claimers, by TEN lengths, SIX lengths and EIGHT lengths (!), so clearly there was no fluke about them.

He's drawn stall five today, which is ideal if they elect to front run again, and 9/1 BOG looks a cracking each way bet to me. I'm on.

As ever, make sure you get the right price, so…

Click here for the latest odds for the 9.05 Wolverhampton.

Now then, as a bonus 'stat of the week' for you, here's a quick breakdown of when to back Dermot Weld at Galway this week.

The top man at Ballybrit has an incredible record and ended up winning seventeen races at last year's Festival. But all his runners are not equally well-placed, so when is the right time to take a short price about a Weld runner at Galway?

Quite simply, when they're not in handicaps. Weld's handicap runners in recent years have won 18% of the time (perfectly respectable) for a profit of 9.86 units (again, perfectly respectable).

But in non-handicaps, he's won a ridiculous 43% of the time for 37.64 units!

Specifically, in maidens, Weld is 48% and +26.39; and in National Hunt flat races, he's a 50% +15.25 record.

Finally, horses having their first public run under rules have won a scarcely believable 55% of the time, for a 15.05 point profit.

As such, I'd be interested in Thunder Mountain (5.00) and Silver Concorde (7.10) tonight, and looking out especially for first time starters from the stable. Enjoy!