Posts

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Catterick : Scented Lily @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Held up behind, headway when hit 7th, driven to chase front pair before 2 out, soon ridden, never on terms, weakened last) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fume @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

I'm away for the weekend and I've got connectivity issues, so I'll keep this relatively brief, but rest assured the usual amount of research has gone into the pick!

Here we have a 2 yr old gelding (son of Frankel) who carries top weight (9st 9lbs off a mark of 72) who drops down in class after only being beaten by a neck in a Class 4, 7f Nursery at Kempton 10 days ago. The drop in class is a positive as is the booking of Oisin Murphy to take the ride, as Oisin is in good nick and has a decent record at this venue.

There are three main angles of interest with this horse/race today, starting with...

...this horse has never been to Wolverhampton or raced on Tapeta before but since the start of 2014, trainer Ralph Beckett's (who also does well here) 2/3 yr olds with 1-7 previous career runs are 52 from 205 (25.4% SR) for 70.7pts (+34.5% ROI) when trying a new A/W surface for the first time, including 16 from 62 (25.8%) for 19.6pts (+31.6%) here at Wolverhampton.

*

Then we have the fact that since the start of 2013, top weights in Wolverhampton Nursery races are 44 from 219 (20.1% SR) for 45.7pts (+20.9% ROI), from which those carrying 9st 7lbs or more are 39/170 (22.9%) for 68.7pts (+40.4%).

*

And finally, we know that both jockey and trainer are in decent form and both have fared well at this venue in recent years. Surprisingly, they have very rarely teamed up here at Wolverhampton, but overall when working together, they are 41 from 216 (19% SR) for 59.6pts (+27.6% ROI) since the start of 2014...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fume @ 7/2 BOG , prices offered by Bet365, BetVictor & BlackType respectively at 8.20pm on Friday evening. (extra half point is available from sky) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

12.40 Chepstow : Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led before 2nd, challenged before 2 out, stayed on strongly to win by 2.25 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Finoah @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery  for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner...

Why?

This 2 yr old gelding was a 3-lengths winner over 6 furlongs when last seen 24 days ago, whilst he was only 3 lengths adrift in a Listed contest two starts ago. His only previous visit to Wolverhampton resulted in him going down by just a short head to Sporting Chance, who has himself since won a 6f Listed race!

Since the start of 2016, trainer Tom Dascombe's 2 yr old have a decent record here on this track, winning 12 of 80 (15% SR) for 26.9pts (+33.6% ROI) but it seems that the ones to follow are those ridden by his first choice jockey Richard Kingscote, because of those 80 2yr olds, the trainer/jockey combination is 11 from 56 (19.6% SR) for 47.4pts (+84.7% ROI), including...

  • on horses rested for 11-45 days : 8/30 (26.7%) for 37.5pts (+125%)
  • in fields of 5-9 runners : 9/28 (32.1%) for 65.5pts (+234%)
  • over this 6f C&D : 5/21 (23.8%) for 17.94pts (+85.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.86pts

...and from the above...those racing in fields of 5-9 runners over 6f after a break of 11-45 days are 3/6 (50% SR) for 26.43pts (+440.5% ROI)...

Tom Dascombe also has a pretty impressive record of getting his LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 107 of 430 (24.9% SR) occasions since the start of 2012. A simple £20 stake on each of those runners would have netted a cool £3484 profit at a healthy ROI of some 40.5%! And that's from just blindly backing all his LTO winners.

Of course, we wouldn't necessarily suggest such an approach, so if you wanted fewer bets...

  • those rested for 11-60 days are 84/312 (26.9%) for 178.72pts (+57.3%)
  • those sent off shorter than 8/1 are 96/291 (33%) for 113.17pts (+38.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 75/280 (26.8%) for 175.11pts (+62.5%)
  • those racing at the same distance as LTO are 63/241 (26.1%) for 118.4pts (+49.1%)
  • those running on the A/W are 39/120 (32.5%) for 18.33pts (+15.3%)
  • 2yr olds are 29/118 (24.6%) for 94.64pts (+80.2%)
  • Class 4 runners are 29/102 (28.4%) for 39.66pts (+38.9%)
  • those racing over 6f are 28/95 (29.5%) for 71.32pts (+75.1%)
  • in the final quarter of the year (Oct-Dec) : 20/70 (28.6%) for 22.65pts (+32.4%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 17/42 (35.4%) for 24.76pts (+51.6%)
  • and on Tapeta : 10/33 (30.3%) for 12.79pts (+38.8%)

...and a composite from above?...Richard Kingscote on sub-8/1 runners racing over the same distance as an LTO win 11-60 days earlier = 30/79 (38% SR) for 39.4pts (+49.9% ROI) and this includes 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) here at Wolverhampton producing profits of 14.5pts (+181%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Finoah @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by at least 8 firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with BetBright for the few of you able to get on with them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

12.40 Southwell : Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden and every chance from over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a neck) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 2 Fillies Conditions Stakes for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £12291 to the winner... 

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively (by my standards anyway) short and hopefully very sweet today with a 5 yr old mare who has knocked on the door of late finishing third in each of her last three starts. In her defence, I should add that they were all at Listed Class and today she takes both a drop in class and trip back to her preferred 7f.

All 3 career wins to date are over 7 furlongs within 12-24 days of her last outing (15 days this time) and she has 1 win and 2 places from 3 Class 2 efforts whilst she also has a win and a place from 3 over this very course and distance.

Franny Norton rides her for the first time today, but he's having a good year on Mick Channon's horses when called upon. The partnership is 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) this year, including of relevance today...

  • 8 from 35 (22.9%) for 15.7pts (+44.9%) when sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) for 34.7pts (+119.7%) on horses rested for 11-45 days
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 52.5pts (+228.4%) over trips of 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 44.3pts (+233.1%) on female horses
  • 6 from 16 (37.5%) for 41.6pts (+259.9%) in non-handicap races
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+353.6%) on horses placed 3rd LTO
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 8.45pts (+169%) on the A/W
  • and 1 from 2 950%) for 2.09pts (+104.5%) here at Wolverhampton...

...and from the above...Norton + Channon + 2018 + females + 5/4 to 10/1 + 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs + 11-45 dslr = 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.42pts (+388.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.15 Hereford : Stepover @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Took keen hold, tracked leader until mistake 4th, shaken up after 3 out, driven after next, one pace and no impression, no extra flat) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old gelding who was beaten by just a length over 8.5f at this very track 5 days ago, he's quickly turned back out off the same mark but takes a drop in trip to a course and distance where he has won previously in the past off this mark of 55.

He's by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3-5 yr olds are 17/105 (16.2% SR) for 47.1pts (+44.9% ROI) in Class 6 A/W handicaps over 7-8 furlongs and whilst that's a nice little micro-system that continues to bear fruit, we've bigger fish to fry here, because...

...since the start of 2013 in UK A/W handicaps over 6 to 8.5f, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a defeat by 3 lengths or less LTO are 131 from 591 (22.2% SR) for 186.7pts (+31.6% ROI). Obviously I'm not saying you should follow them blindly, as 100 or so bets per year from one angle can be too much for many, but it is one you could use if you're not a jumps fan this winter.

If, however, like many you prefer to refine the selection further, there's an absolute myriad of logical, profitable angles (they should always be logical!) you could take. I'm "only" going to scratch the surface and give you 14 possible angles of attack! So, from our original 591 quick returners, in descending order of number of selections...

  • those running off the same mark (OR) as LTO : 118/507 (23.3%) for 176.7pts (+34.9%)
  • males are 104/449 (23.2%) for 158.8pts (+35.4%)
  • those running at the same class as LTO : 89/385 (23.1%) for 164.5pts (+42.7%)
  • Class 6 runners are 71/296 (24%) for 151.7pts (+51.3%)
  • those running on the same track as LTO : 55/237 (23.2%) for 105.4pts (+44.5%)
  • those last seen 5 days ago are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • here at Wolverhampton, it's 51/191 (26.7%) for 115.3pts (+60.4%)
  • those who ran here at Wolverhampton LTO are 44/188 (23.4%) for 91.5pts (+48.7%)
  • those racing over 7f are also 44/188 (23.4%) but for 58pts (+30.9%)
  • those racing on Tapeta are 37/142 (26.1%) for 77pts (+54.2%)
  • 5 yr olds are 25/119 (21%) for 26.6pts (+22.3%)
  • those dropping in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs are 26/90 (28.9%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • those who are running here at Wolverhampton and also did so LTO are 23/87 (26.4%) for 73.5pts (+84.4%)
  • and in October/November : 20/84 (23.8%) for 89.9pts (+107%)

Now, going back to the original 131/591 (22.2%) for 186.7pts (+31.6%), the above examples show how robust the strategy is, regardless of today's result. We've 14 (and there are many more) logical angles, all with a similar strike rate to the original and this is good for us systemites. The original 22.2% only has extremes of 21% and 28.9% in the examples and this shows the stability of the system.

Of course, there's far more variance in the ROI (22.3% to 107%), but this merely shows that the market hasn't yet cottoned on to some of the angles and I'll wrap up for the day by offering a composite from the above for those who want just a few bets each year at a higher SR/ROI than the original...

...as Class 6 males who also ran at Class 6 LTO 3-5 days earlier off the same mark at the same track = 25/67 (37.3% SR) for 86.8pts (+129.5% ROI) including 10 winners from 28 (35.7%) for 38pts (+135.7%) here at Wolverhampton, but these angles are a little more niche/contrived than the original examples!

...but they all point towards... a 1pt win bet on Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Sky Bet & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Monday evening (a price still kicking around at 9.00am Tuesday), although Bet365 were slightly better at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.45 Kempton : Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led 1f, prominent, outpaced over 3f out, no impression after) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding won at this track over 1m4f 27 days ago in a race that came exactly 27 days after he narrowly failed by a neck over the same course and distance, so he should be fresh enough today. Clifford Lee was on board for the win that day and he retains the ride with his 3lb claim today.

The horse, although a previous course winner, hasn't run over this track and trip before, but he does have a win at the distance elsewhere under his belt, so he should stay.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it pretty simple for you this morning...

Trainer Kevin Frost's LTO winners have repeated the feat on 7 of 17 occasions (41.2% SR) already this year and backing eac of them has been worth 14.9pts profit at an ROI of 32.4% and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 31.8pts (+227.1%)
  • at 6/1 and shorter : 6/8 (75%) for 16.73pts (+209.2%)
  • after a break of just 11-30 days : 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.27pts (+115.9%)
  • and on the A/W (all here at Wolverhampton actually) : 3/4 (75%) for 12.87pts (+321.8%)

And finally a quick note about jockey Clifford Lee, because for a jockey still riding with a claim, he has an exceptional record at this particular venue, winning 10 of 59 (17% SR) here since the start of 2017, recording level stakes profits of 89.3pts (+151.4% ROI) with a particular talent for winning in these low-grade contests, winning 7 of 21 (33.3%) at Class 6 for 52pts (+247.8% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Calvinist @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by pretty much everyone at 12.10pm on Thursday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.05 Huntingdon : Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leading pair, went right 3rd, outpaced when hit 4 out, not fluent 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on to press for modest 2nd closing stages, no chance with winner) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Keeping it simple today with the inspiration from the pick coming mainly from our Horses for Courses report and also because I like the horse's chances at the prices available!

He's an 8 yr old gelding, who won here at Wolverhampton over 8.5 furlongs 34 days ago on what was just his fourth start for Donald McCain (better known for his NH exploits, of course!). The win took his record for the yard to 2 wins from 4 including 2 from 2 on the A/W, both on this track.

His overall record on the All-Weather is excellent, winning 7 of 21 (33.3% SR) for profits of 40.6pts (+193.5% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those 21 races have produced the following of note...

  • going left handed : 6/19 (31.6%) for 35.6pts (+187.5%)
  • wearing blinkers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 37.6pts (+221.4%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 : 6/15 940%) for 24.7pts (+164.8%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 7/14 (50%) for 47.6pts (+340.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 39.1pts (+325.9%)
  • at the age of 8 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+216.1%)
  • for Donald McCain : 2/2 (100%) for 19.2pts (+960%)
  • at Class 4 : 1/2 (50%) for 9.93pts (+496.5%)
  • over this 1.5 mile trip : 1/2 950%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%)
  • and over today's course and distance : 1/1 (100%) for 8.23pts (+411.5%)

And from the above, it's worth pointing out that when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 here at Wolverhampton (going left handed, of course!) whilst wearing blinkers in fields of 5 to 11 runners, Barnaby Brook has won 4 of 7 (57.1% SR) for 22.2pts profit at an ROI of 317.3%. Of the three he failed to win, he was the runner-up, beaten by a length, 1.25 lengths and 1.5 lengths : so always on the premises under those conditions...

...pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betvictor & SkyBet at 5.20pm on Thursday evening, whilst Bet365 were standouts at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG a poor 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leader, led 4f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Conkering Hero 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 5, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has won 4 of his 13 A/W races to date and comes here in great form having won each of the last three, culminating in a course and distance success here a week ago and of his 4/13 A/W record, he has the following...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 at the age of 4
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 in a visor
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 over 2m/2m½f
  • 2 wins from 4 in fields of 6/7 runners
  • 2 wins from 3 in July / August
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 with Finley Marsh in the saddle
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (that LTO win a week ago)

Trainer Joseph Tuite is 15 from 74 (20.3% SR) for 18.81pts (+25.4% ROI) with his Flat & A/W LTO winners since the start of 2015, including...

  • 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 7.07pts (+22.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 16.55pts (+57.1%) sent off shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 38.67pts (+133.3%) from June to August
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.89pts (+58.2%) in 2018
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.68pts (+72.3%) 6-10 days after their LTO win
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.15pts (+431.5%) over 1m6f and beyond
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.04pts (+113%) here at Wolverhampton

As I alluded earlier, 5lb claimer Finley Marsh is in the saddle today and so far this year, he is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+177.9% ROI) on the Tuite string of horses, from which he is...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.9pts (+199.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.9pts (+224.2%) when claiming his 5lb allowance
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 27.9pts (+253.7%) when claiming 5lbs in a handicap

And finally for this one (phew!)... Since the start of 2013 in Class 5 A/W contests, horses who won over course and distance last time out by 3 lengths or less at odds of 11/4 to 20/1 are 25 from 52 (48.1% SR) for 51.45pts (+98.9% ROI) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Conkering Hero 5/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 9.45pm on Thursday. with plenty of 9/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

8.45 Newcastle : Blazed @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 (Slowly away, towards rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace final furlong, no impression and no extra final 75 yards)

We continue with Wednesday's...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old gelding on a hat-trick after a win over course and distance was backed up by a success over the same trip at Ayr 15 days ago. He stayed on well to win late on both occasions and with no real discernible pace on offer in this contest, I expect a similar tactic to hopefully produce a similar result.

Previous track knowledge certainly helps around here and that prior C&D win was his only run at the venue, so he's unbeaten here albeit from the smallest sample size imaginable!

His trainer Tim Easterby has had 12 winners from 75 (16% SR) for 10.3pts (+13.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2015 with that low-ish ROI suggesting that his horses attract some support whilst winning more than their fair share and of the 75 mentioned...

  • handicappers are 11/65 (16.9%) for 6.33pts (+9.7%)
  • those sent off at evens to 12/1 are 12/50 (24%) for 35.3pts (+70.6%)
  • males are 10/48 (20.8%) for 18.2pts (+38%)
  • and at Class 6, it's 8/39 (20.5%) for 3.87pts (+9.9%)

...Class 6 male handicappers at odds of Evens to 12/1 are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+64.3% ROI) profit...

Tim's LTO winners are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 11.5pts (+60.6% ROI) this year alone, so he's clearly got into a rhythm of keeping in-form horses to repeat themselves, whilst since the start of 2014, his LTO winners with the CD logo next to their name are 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 34.4pts (+67.4% ROI) profit and these include...

  • over trips shorter than a mile : 6/32 (18.8%) for 34.5pts (+107.7%)
  • 6-15 days since last run : 9/26 (34.6%) for 53.9pts (+207.3%)
  • and male runners : 7/20 (35%) for 32.7pts (+93.3%)

...male runners racing over trips shorter than a mile, 6 ro 15 days after their last run/win are 4/10 (40% SR) for 43.5pts (+435% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mischief Managed @ 3/1 BOG  which was widely available on Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Leoro @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Held up, headway after 2f, went 2nd over 11f out, led 3f out, clear 2f out, eased towards finish, but still won by 3.25 lengths)

Our last pick of the month goes in Monday's...

4.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

A 9-runner, Class 4,  1m4f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £5757 to the winner... 

Why?

This was actually my second best selection for Saturday behind Leoro, our 5/1 winner, but this was a non-runner and quickly reappears. Here's why I was (and still am) keen to back it...

He's a 6 yr old gelding in the form of his life right now, having won seven of his last eleven, finishing as a runner-up in two of the four defeats. All 11 were in A/W handicaps, including a course and distance win here last time out, 23 days ago, which took his A/W handicap tally to 9 wins from 31, including of relevance today...

  • 7 from 26 over 1m3f/1m4f and 8 from 23 with less than 26 days rest
  • 6 from 19 over 1m4f and 6 from 12 under jockey Joe Fanning
  • 6 from 12 at odds of 4/1 & shorter and 3 from 11 here at Wolverhampton
  • 5 from 9 in blinkers and 3 from 9 over course and distance
  • 6 from 8 as a 6 yr old and 4 from 8 in fields of 9/10 runners

So, he's comfortable with the task ahead, what about his trainer?

Well, Jennie Candlish's horses are 20 from 80 (25% SR) for 46.25pts profit at an ROI of 57.8% in A/W races since the start of 2016 and with today's contest firmly in mind, those 80 are...

  • 19/71 (26.8%) for 49.6pts (+69.9%) in handicaps
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 26.83pts (+63.9%) at Wolverhampton
  • 10/37 (27%) for 31.83pts (+86%) in handicaps here at Wolves
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 29.76pts (+124%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 26.1pts (+118.7%) in hcps with Mr Fanning riding
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.5%) in April
  • 4/10 (40%) for 18.05pts (+180.5%) with Joe Fanning in Wolves hcps
  • 4/8 (50%) for 29pts (+362.7%) in April handicaps
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 15.52pts (+776%) in Wolverhampton April handicaps with Joe Fanning in the saddle!

Phew, but wait, there's more!

Since the start of 2015, Jennie's LTO winners have won again 29 times from 103 (28.2% SR) generating profits of 65.24pts (+63.3% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 27/92 (29.4%) for 67.58pts (+73.5%)
  • those who last raced in the previous 45 days are 27/90 (30%) for 55.21pts (+61.3%)
  • handicappers within 45 days of last run are 25/81 (30.9%) for 55.55pts (+68.6%)
  • on the A/W : 7/17 (41.2%) for 30.05pts (+176.8%)
  • over 1m4f to 1m6f : 6/12 950%) for 36.58pts (+304.8%)
  • with Joe Fanning  : 6/9 (66.6%) for 27.19pts (+302.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 4/8 (50%) for 28.76pts (+359.5%)

And I think I'll stop there before I lose you!

...final advice is...a 1pt win bet on Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG which was available from at least half a dozen firms at 7.35pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Leoro @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Held up, headway after 2f, went 2nd over 11f out, led 3f out, clear 2f out, eased towards finish, but still won by 3.25 lengths)

Our last pick of the month goes in Monday's...

4.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  1m4f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £5757 to the winner... 

Why?

This was actually my second best selection for Saturday behind Leoro, our 5/1 winner, but this was a non-runner and quickly reappears. Here's why I was (and still am) keen to back it...

He's a 6 yr old gelding in the form of his life right now, having won seven of his last eleven, finishing as a runner-up in two of the four defeats. All 11 were in A/W handicaps, including a course and distance win here last time out, 23 days ago, which took his A/W handicap tally to 9 wins from 31, including of relevance today...

  • 7 from 26 over 1m3f/1m4f and 8 from 23 with less than 26 days rest
  • 6 from 19 over 1m4f and 6 from 12 under jockey Joe Fanning
  • 6 from 12 at odds of 4/1 & shorter and 3 from 11 here at Wolverhampton
  • 5 from 9 in blinkers and 3 from 9 over course and distance
  • 6 from 8 as a 6 yr old and 4 from 8 in fields of 9/10 runners

So, he's comfortable with the task ahead, what about his trainer?

Well, Jennie Candlish's horses are 20 from 80 (25% SR) for 46.25pts profit at an ROI of 57.8% in A/W races since the start of 2016 and with today's contest firmly in mind, those 80 are...

  • 19/71 (26.8%) for 49.6pts (+69.9%) in handicaps
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 26.83pts (+63.9%) at Wolverhampton
  • 10/37 (27%) for 31.83pts (+86%) in handicaps here at Wolves
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 29.76pts (+124%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 26.1pts (+118.7%) in hcps with Mr Fanning riding
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.5%) in April
  • 4/10 (40%) for 18.05pts (+180.5%) with Joe Fanning in Wolves hcps
  • 4/8 (50%) for 29pts (+362.7%) in April handicaps
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 15.52pts (+776%) in Wolverhampton April handicaps with Joe Fanning in the saddle!

Phew, but wait, there's more!

Since the start of 2015, Jennie's LTO winners have won again 29 times from 103 (28.2% SR) generating profits of 65.24pts (+63.3% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 27/92 (29.4%) for 67.58pts (+73.5%)
  • those who last raced in the previous 45 days are 27/90 (30%) for 55.21pts (+61.3%)
  • handicappers within 45 days of last run are 25/81 (30.9%) for 55.55pts (+68.6%)
  • on the A/W : 7/17 (41.2%) for 30.05pts (+176.8%)
  • over 1m4f to 1m6f : 6/12 950%) for 36.58pts (+304.8%)
  • with Joe Fanning  : 6/9 (66.6%) for 27.19pts (+302.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 4/8 (50%) for 28.76pts (+359.5%)

And I think I'll stop there before I lose you!

...final advice is...a 1pt win bet on Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG which was available from at least half a dozen firms at 7.35pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.15 Doncaster : Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, held towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Saturday's...

6.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Leoro @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 6,  1m6f A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

A lightly raced (just 2 hurdle outings followed by 3 on A/W so far) 4 yr old who was a course and distance winner on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton. That was two starts ago and he narrowly failed to follow that up when beaten by half a length stepped up by 2f last time out four weeks ago at Chelmsford.

Back down in trip and back on tapeta, he stands a really good chance at a decent price today representing trainer Charlie Mann, who doesn't actually send many to run on the A/W at all, just 37 since 2008 in fact!

Of those 37, 8 (21.6% SR) have been winners and have produced 62.5pts profit at an ROI of some 168.9% and with today's race in mind, those 37 are...

  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 57.8pts (+175.2%) in handicaps
  • 8/32 (25%) for 67.5pts (+210.9%) in the October to May period
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 38.48pts (+167.3%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 9.2pts (+43.8%) at Class 6
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 49.77pts (+261.9%) since 2013
  • 6/15 (40%) for 70.27pts (+468.5%) at 1m3f to 1m6f
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 28.6pts (+190.5%) from 4 yr olds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.21pts (+77.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) on tapeta here at Wolverhampton
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.44pts (+48%) ridden by Shane Kelly.

More recently (ie over the last two years), Charlie's Flat/AW runners at 1m3f to 1m6f are 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 57.7pts (+480.7% ROI) profit with a record of 2/4 (50%) for 8.85pts (+221.2%) at 1m6f.

It's also worth noting that as Leoro is Charlie's only runner anywhere today that since 2013, his "solo entries" are 48/258 (18.6% SR) for 173.1pts (+67.1% ROI) in handicaps, from which...

  • those rested for 11-30 days are 36/162 (22.2%) for 176.7pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO runners-up are 11/37 (29.7%) for 37.3pts (+100.9%)
  • in April : 7/35 (20%) for 31.4pts (+89.7%)
  • those who lost by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO are 12/30 (40%) for 59.8pts (+199.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/15 (26.7%) for 62.7pts (+417.8%)
  • on the Flat/AW : 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.21pts (+147.8%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.75pts (+221.9%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 2/5 (40%) for 4.77pts (+95.4%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Leoro @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, Paddy Power, Totesport & Unibet at 6.20pm on Friday with Betfair offering a half point more at 11/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!