Tag Archive for: Wolverhampton tips

Racing Insights, 20th December 2021

I’m filling in for Chris for Monday’s column. He’ll be back with Tuesday’s write up.

The Free Feature of the Day on Monday is the pace tab for all races. Arguably the biggest time saving tool of all on Geegeez Gold and it’s completely free for every single race on both Sundays and Mondays to free registered users..

There are also three races of the day where all racecard features are available for free, again to registered users. These fee races on Monday are:

2.15 Musselburgh
4.30 Wolverhampton
6.30 Wolverhampton

I’m more interested in the offerings at Wolverhampton and since the 4.30 is a 2yo Novice race it’s a pretty easy decision to concentrate on the handicap scheduled two hours later, run over the extended mile. 

This is a 9 runner, class 5 race with a likely short priced favourite so we’ll at least have the option of finding a decent each way with at least two extra places up for grabs, even if the favourite does justify his odds.

First of all let’s look at potential pace biases for this race.

The pace data seems to slightly favour those that race prominently with that run style producing the best win and place percentages but it is only narrowly favoured over mid division. There is then a slight drop off to both front runners and held up which are both closely matched, proving that extreme run styles here are not ideal but neither are they hugely disadvantaged. All things being equal we probably want to favour something that races prominently to mid division here.

Looking at the predicted pace for this race in the pace map, we could see two runners contest the early speed. Those runners are Canagat and One Last Dance. If they do end up cutting each other’s throats then that could definitely help mid division over prominent but there is no evidence that this will be an overly strong pace, more so we should see a solid pace.

Only 9 runners in this so we shouldn’t make too much of the draw but it’s still worth taking into account.

It does seem that in a field of this size there isn’t much of a draw bias. The highest individual stall PRB is 0.53 and the lowest is 0.46 and the other seven stalls are between 0.51 and 0.47 so the draw shouldn’t play too much of a part. There would be a slight preference for being drawn lower than higher though, however stall 1 isn’t seemingly advantaged at all here.

It’s extremely difficult to make a case for Moving For Gold, Star Of St James or Forbearing so I’m not going to go into detail on that trio. Star Of St James does have a tendency to improve for a run so he may come on for his last effort after 211 days off but he was in poor form before the break too so it’s difficult to suggest he’ll be involved.

So is this favourite the most likely winner of the race? Umm Hurair seemed to appreciate the drop to this trip last time out on handicap debut when accounting for ten other runners comfortably. The 4th has come out and got slightly closely to winning but there is little to suggest at this stage how strong that form really was. Visually he was pretty impressive and he’s very lightly raced so a 7lb rise could be unlikely to stop him - he certainly looks the most likely winner here but whether you’d want to get involved at the odds I’m not so sure.

If we’re not backing Umm Hurair that then leaves us with five possible choices for an each way wager. 

Bearwith has been in good form recently, finishing in the places on his last five starts. His only career win was a 7 length victory over course and distance (now 11lbs higher) and since then he’s finished 2nd and 3rd over a mile at Kempton. His latest 3rd was decent enough form with the winner placing since and the runner up winning next time out. He looks almost certain to be in the places but he might not be a big enough price to back each way.

One Last Dance was well backed last time out stepped up to 11f at Southwell but he failed to give his running, beaten before stamina came into play. Prior to that he had finished runner up three starts in a row and it’s worth noting that two of the runners that beat him won again next time out and the other one finished 2nd on his next start. That means he shouldn’t be judged too harshly for failing to get the job done and that was pretty warm form in all those races too. He does have to bounce back to form here and he’s running over the shortest trip he’s faced in over a year but perhaps an aggressive ride over this trip is what he needs. A few question marks but capable of running well.

Canagat hadn’t really shown much on the track in almost 18 months before a 3rd place last time out at Southwell. He was still beaten 4.5 lengths and although he may build on that, he has dropped 21lbs in the handicap this year after all, he’s probably just as likely to go the other way so he’s not one you could back with much confidence.

First Lott hasn’t looked particularly well handicapped in recent starts and he now tries a new trip to try and find some improvement. He shapes as though he might stay but equally he shapes as though he’s simply averagely treated at his optimum trip. Meanwhile Never Said Nothing was 6 lengths behind the favourite here last time out and is now 8lbs better off. Before that he was 4 lengths behind Bearwith at Kempton and he’s only 1lb better off with that rival here so it’s difficult to see him getting close to either Umm Hurair or Bearwith in this. 

Summary

Unfortunately the early betting has this race spot on. Umm Hurair looks the most likely winner, Bearwith is probably the one most likely to follow him home and One Last Dance, although with something to prove, looks the best of the rest.

The only bets at backable prices I could really find for this would be Umm Harair to beat Bearwith in a straight forecast with One Last Dance possibly worth including as the 3rd place option in a small tricast. Had he come here without that blip at Southwell last time out he’d have been a much more confident call to finish in the places and that money for him last time out suggests he is still well treated, as do the horses he was finishing behind in his previous starts. He’s perhaps one to note with a view to backing after this if he runs well in defeat again.

Racing Insights, 20th July 2021

Tuesday’s free feature of the day is the Shortlist Report, an extremely popular part of Geegeez Gold. The Shortlist Report highlights horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in Instant Expert everyday in attempt to flag up runners that are most likely to enjoy conditions – and therefore run to form and run well. It can be used for both win and place purposes and is completely free on Tuesday’s to all free registered users of Geegeez.

The free races for free registered users on Tuesday will be:

2.30 Ffos Las
4.30 Wolverhampton
5.25 Ballinrobe
5.55 Ballinrobe

With limited form on offer in the 4.30 at Wolverhampton this is an opportunity to highlight an often under appreciated part of Instant Expert.

The 4.30 at Wolverhampton is a 12f novice auction stakes open to 3yos and 4yos and thankfully six of the seven runners have had at least one run so we won’t be completely in the dark.

First of all I want to start with Instant Expert. Looking at the runners in Instant Expert isn’t going to give us a ton of information given the limited form on offer but by looking at the sire data we will hopefully find some useful snippets that can be used to narrow the field and highlight those likely to go well.

Looking at the data above, you’d have to have some reservations about Bashful and Jerriais on the surface as their sires, Manduro and Geordieland, have much poorer place records on standard going than the rest of the field. Jerriais has run here on his only start but he was beaten 11 lengths so perhaps connections need to seek turf opportunities instead.

Interestingly Casamento, sire of Flamingo Rose, has a slightly better record on standard than Mount Nelson, sire of Fort Nelson, but Mount Nelson seems to have a far superior record at Wolverhampton compared to Casamento. Something to note.

The sire information for distance could also be quite telling. There is no distance data for Geordieland, sire of Jerriais, but given Geordieland was a two mile winner and placed in the Ascot Gold Cup you’d expect Jerriais to stay well and need all of this trip and then some. Once again things look bleak for Bashful as his sire, Manduro, has a poorer record at this distance. Kendargent, the sire of Bascule, has the best place record at this trip followed by Animal Kingdom, sire of Hanafy.

Overall looking at the above, ignoring what they have achieved on track to date you’d probably be most interested in Hanafy and then Bascule with Fort Nelson also considered.

Note that there is no sire Instant Expert data for the unraced Samara Star who is by Adaay.

The Profiler tool suggests Adaay’s offspring are better on softer turf than either fast ground or all weather surfaces.

There isn’t much form to go on, but let’s take a look at what the runners have achieved so far.

Fort Nelson

Well beaten in two starts at this sort of distance and early warning signs being tried in blinkers on debut and a hood last time out. He’s already tried an all weather surface (at Lingfield) and there is little to suggest he’ll improve here.

Hanafy

Ran a decent 3rd on debut in a national hunt flat race in January for Kevin Bishop before not showing much in one hurdle start. Moved to Mitchell Hunt and was beaten 15 lengths in a novice on stable debut but that was a strong race (winner rated 95, runner up rated 88, 4th rated 89). You’d expect him to get much closer in a much more moderate race here.

First time cheekpieces go on. Worryingly the trainer has used first time cheekpieces twice before and neither runner beat a rival home. A small sample though.

Flamingo Rose

Won a maiden national hunt flat race at Southwell (turf) in May after a wind op, sporting a first time tongue tie. Attempted to follow up last month over two furlongs shy of this trip at Chelmsford but was beaten 16.5 lengths, looking in need of further. The winner of that is now rated 84 so this is likely to be easier but she does need to improve for the extra trip.

Bascule

One of two runners to have a handicap rating (74) and has finished runner up on his last two starts. All three runs to date have come over a mile but the sire stats in Instant Expert pointed to this sort of trip suiting and the dam also stayed this trip. If he improves for the extra half mile he’ll surely go very close and even a reproduction of his previous form at this trip could be enough.

The booking of William Buick catches the eye, he is 3 from 4 for Richard Hughes on the all weather in the past five years.

Bashful

Also rated 74 and also stepping up in trip (from 10f). He’s finished runner up on all three starts this season, including in handicap company last time out, so he’s clearly capable of running to this mark. He possibly didn’t want to go past last time out if you were being critical and probably isn’t one to put too much faith in at shortish prices. This will be his all weather debut and Instant Expert flagged a slightly poor record for Manduro on standard going which is another negative.

Jerriais

Very likely to improve for his first run given that came over less than 10f and he’s by stayer Geordieland. He certainly looked in need of further that day. Geordieland is yet to sire anything rated higher than 65 on the flat and the dam was only rated 67 so it’s unlikely he’ll amount to much on the level, whatever the trip.

Samara Star

Makes her handicap debut for Simon and Ed Crisford. A half sister to Tactician so potential to be smarter than several of these. Obviously the betting will give us plenty of clues but the fact that the sire’s offspring tend to do better on turf than all weather is a slight concern.

Summary

This isn’t going to be a betting heat for many and based on all of the information I have Bascule looks a fair bit more interesting than Bashful and undoubtedly looks the one to beat. Samara Star could be anything but unless there is a significant market move she could be one to wait for on turf.

Of the remainder, Hanafy and Flamingo Rose should get a lot closer than they have to date. Preference of the two would be for Hanafy who is bred for the all weather and ran in a pretty hot novice last time out, albeit well beaten. He can hopefully improve on Mitchell Hunt’s poor record so far with first time cheekpieces and it's a slight shame each way betting is restricted to two places in this as he might have been worth chancing each way (or even place only) at a big price if getting three places. It’s Bascule they all have to beat though.

Racing Insights, 18th December 2020

Chris got Thursday's race pretty much spot on with his runners of interest finishing 1st and 3rd at Hereford. He'll be taking a short break from Racing Insights but hopefully the standard of analysis won't drop in his absence.

Friday’s feature of the day is the Horses For Courses report which is available in its entirety to all free registered users. The free races for free registered users are as follows:

12.37 Uttoxeter
1.35 Navan
4.10 Wolverhampton
4.30 Dundalk
5.00 Dundalk
7.00 Dundalk

All weather sprints often present a bias or two we can take advantage of so that 4.10 at Wolverhampton is of particular interest here and worth further investigation. The race is a class 6, 5f race worth £5,593 and looks an open contest.

Time To Reason has been out of form in two recent runs after a 252 day break. Both of those runs came at Southwell, a course where he had no previous form, so it’s entirely possible that the surface hasn’t suited and these two runs have got him both cherry ripe and 4lbs lower in the handicap.

His sole UK victory came off a 10lb higher mark back in February 2019 over this distance at Chelmsford and he has a solid record here at Wolverhampton with form figures of 63263022. When narrowing it down to runs here at this distance his form reads 32322 and all those runs came off marks either in the high 50s or mid 60s so that form entitles him to plenty of respect here off 54 and he may well have been laid out for this.

Jockey Richard Kingscote knows the horse well, he rides the horse more often than not and was on board for all five of those course and distance efforts. He has a place strike rate of 34.48% overall and that rises to 39.56% at Wolverhampton so this is clearly a venue he performs well at.

His partnership with trainer Charlie Wallis is much more potent on the all weather than turf. The pair have a 21.43% place strike rate when teaming up on turf and a 41.54% place strike rate on artificial surfaces.

Thegreyvtrain outran her odds of 20/1 last time out in first time cheekpieces when 3rd over this course and distance and she now tries first time blinkers in an attempt to eek out more improvement.

The Profiler is capable of shedding some light on how much difference the blinkers could make compared to the cheekpieces.

Looking at the sire data in Profiler for handicaps, offspring of Coach House have a 7.89% win strike rate and a 26.32% place strike rate in cheekpieces compared to a 7.5% win strike rate and 22.5% place strike rate in blinkers so chances are her performance here will be similar and possibly marginally worse than last time.

This runner has a poor strike rate when it comes to getting her head in front, she’s just 2 from 37. Her place strike rate is much better though (17 from 37) and she’s finished either 2nd or 3rd in 5 of her last 8 starts. It’s easy to see why connections have been reaching for headgear.

The majority of her course and distance runs have come off slightly higher marks than today and her form figures here at 5f read 779253283 so she looks a place contender at best.

Arcavallo is another with a fairly modest win and place strike rate, Michael Dods’ gelding has 3 wins, 5 2nds and 2 3rds from 33 career starts. He’s yet to win from 11 runs on the all weather but has finished 2nd once and 3rd twice.

He’s found a fairly consistent level on her last seven starts with form figures of 4293374 but his mark has been creeping up for not winning. He’s yet to race around here but has put some decent enough efforts in on Newcastle’s tapeta surface. He doesn’t look obviously well handicapped but perhaps racing around a bend will suit this habitual front runner better than the straight track at Newcastle.

Mansfield ran poorly at Catterick on soft ground in October but has never run well in testing conditions and has been withdrawn several times on account of that ground so that effort is easily forgiven. Prior to that he had run well in defeat at Musselburgh and had won here over course and distance off a 4lb lower mark than he carries here.

He won comfortably enough on that occasion in a race where several of those behind have run consistently well since. He seems to struggle at most all weather courses except for Wolverhampton and Lingfield. He’s run six times over course and distance, winning one of those and placing a further twice. It’s worth noting that when he won here he was ridden more prominently than usual (can often be held up) and he’d also shown more early enthusiasm on his previous run too. It could be that not getting too far behind is ideal for the horse. His trainer does have just a 2.13% win record here though and a WIN PL of -86.

Red Allure, a maiden elsewhere, has two wins over course and distance but was slightly disappointing last time out here when a well enough beaten 6th. The response of his connections to that run has been to reach for a first time visor. It’s worth noting that he is 0-15 without headgear and 2-11 with headgear. When he wore blinkers for the first time he was a winner here so the switch in headgear could be what he needs.

His two wins have come off marks of 45 and 47 and he’s rated 50 here so certainly not out of it on that score but he isn’t the most consistent runner.

Superseded has a similar profile to Time To Reason in that he recently returned from a long break (257 days) and has put in two poor performances since. What’s different here is those runs haven’t come when trying a new surface, they have come here and also at Newcastle.

He's done the majority of his racing on the all weather (22 of his 30 starts have come on artificial surfaces) and both his career wins came here over course and distance off much higher marks, but that was almost 18 months ago now.

He's run poorly in all five course and distance runs that have followed those victories so it’s certainly not a case that this venue could spark a revival and it’s difficult to build a case for him in this.

The main positive is the current form of the John Butler yard.

He’s had 6 winners from his last 17 runners at the time of writing with a further 3 places in that sample.

Raspberry is potentially very interesting. She hadn’t shown much in her previous six runs (beaten 10+ lengths in five of those runs) before showing signs of life off a much reduced mark here last time out. She’s now dropped from a mark of 75 (has finished 2nd off 67) down to 48.

That run last time came off the back of an 87 day break so whatever had been bothering her may well have been sorted and that looked a decent enough race for the grade (the winner has placed since and the runner up won on Thursday).

She's finished 2nd off 67 over 5f at Newcastle, 7th (beaten 4.5 lengths) off 67 again here and 4th last time off 49. Given that last race looked stronger than this she’s of interest here off the current mark based on all three of those runs.

Jessie Allan has done most of her racing over 6f and 7f but drops back to 5f here. She’s never got closer than 3rd over the minimum distance and has been unplaced in 10 out of 11 attempts at 5f. She’s very easy to oppose on that basis.

Rank outsiders Trulove and Diamonds Dream are also easy to oppose. The former is on her last winning mark but she hasn’t placed in over a year and beat just two home off the same mark here last time out. Diamonds Dream has been beaten over 9 lengths in all 4 starts to date and was beaten 16 lengths on handicap debut last time out.

Over this course and distance there is an edge towards front runners and those who race closer to the pace, as demonstrated by the historical pace data shown in the pace tab.

The further back in the field a runner is placed, the less likely it is to perform well.

A possible contested pace here according to the Geegeez Pace Map which could compromise the chances of likely pace angles Thegreyvtrain and Arcavallo. The former looked place only material on the form check and Arcavallo didn’t have amazing claims for win or place so neither would stand out as likely bets now based on the pace map, despite the advantage pace horses often have here.

Red Allure should be well placed from his low draw and has good claims on his previous course and distance form but he's no guarantee to give his running.

Mid division is probably as far back as you want to be here, even with contested pace, and Raspberry and Time To Reason plus outsiders Trulove and Diamonds Dream are likely to be placed there, but the latter two are drawn wide and therefore may have to race wide or race even further back than ideal.

In this field size there is an edge for those that are drawn middle to low. The PRB (Percentage of rivals beaten) highlight an advantage to those in the lower stalls and an equal disadvantage to those that come from the higher numbers. That would be a slight concern for Arcavallo who is drawn in stall 6 which is on the middle to high end of the scale in this field.

Summary

The main trio I would be interested in here are Time To Reason, Red Allure and Raspberry. Time To Reason would be an interesting place only bet given his course and distance record but he does look vulnerable for win purposes and will probably find one or two too good. Red Allure is interesting but risky. He’s not the most consistent and is trying new headgear which is a bit of extra risk but chances are he will run well too over a course and distance he generally enjoys.

Raspberry stands out at the early prices though. She’s been rated much higher in the past, seems to go pretty well on tapeta over the minimum distance and gave a strong hint last time that she was on her way back in what was probably a better race. The fact that her best effort by far during that run of six poor races came here is an added bonus.