Tag Archive for: Wolverhampton

A Look at Favourites in All-Weather Races

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Favourites in All-Weather (AW) Racing in 2026

Friends of mine who go racing once or twice a year often ring me up beforehand asking for some ‘tips’, writes Dave Renham.

My initial reply is always the same, “what exactly do you mean by tips?”

And their answer is invariably the same, “winners Dave, I want to back as many winners as possible!”

“Ah!”, I reply, “then that’s a simple one – just back all the favourites”.

After my opening gambit I go on to explain the rationale behind such an apparently facetious answer: that in order to give them the best chance of backing as many winners as possible on the day, backing favourites is the way forward.

Of course, for serious punters the question would be different, as making money over the longer term is about finding value, not winners. If it was as simple as backing winners, we would all be backing the favourite and making lots of money. Favourites are like any other market position in that they can offer value, but of course that does not apply to all market leaders.

 

All-Weather Favourites Overall

In this article my quest is to find the groups of favourites that have offered value in the past, or those that have offered poor value. Poor value favourites give us two options essentially; we can lay them on the exchanges, or we can look for a viable option from the remaining runners.

The data for this article relates to UK AW Racing from 2018 to 2025 inclusive. Profits have been calculated to Befair Starting Price (BSP) with returns adjusted for 2% commission. I am using Betfair Exchange favourites (clear favourites only) for this so let me start by showing the results for all such AW market leaders in the eight-year study period:

 

 

Losses are quite modest at just under 3 pence in the £, so there looks to be hope when it comes to finding a positive favourite angle or two. In terms of the betting returns on favourites, here are the annual splits:

 

 

Last year actually would have turned a profit, but 2020, 2022 and 2023 all saw steeper losses of over 5p in £.

 

All-Weather Favourites by Race type

What about different race types? Firstly, let me share the handicap versus non-handicap figures for favs:

 

 

As we can see there have been slightly smaller losses in non-handicaps. Having said that non-handicap maiden favourites lost more than 5% due to 549 winners from 1267 (SR 43.3%) for a loss of £64.28 (ROI -5.1%). In fact, this is where my first two negative angles come in, namely 2yo only maidens and Class 2-4 maidens:

 

 

Once losses hit the 10%+ mark, I see that as a strong negative as far as favourites are concerned. Both these subsets siginificantly beyond that threshold; and, while on the 2yo maidens’ theme, 2yos making their career debuts that start favourite in all-weather maidens have done very poorly thanks to just 38 wins from 126 runners (SR 30.2%) for a loss of £34.66 (ROI -27.5%).

On a more positive note for 2yos, favourites in nursery handicaps have edged into overall profit thanks to 297 wins from 918 (SR 32.3%, +£28.44, ROI +3.2%). This could have been improved upon if we limit qualifiers to horses that had run at least once on the AW before. This cohort won 33.3% of time (232 wins from 697) for a profit of £51.04 (ROI +7.3%). We will of course have to wait for the summer to potentially exploit this in 2026.

One other race type to quickly mention is claiming races. Favourites have secured returns of over 11% in these races, but unfortunately such races on the sand are extremely rare these days. Last year (2025) for example saw just two such races. Hence, unless there is a change in policy it seems unlikely that we are going to get many claiming races to go at.

 

All-Weather Favourites by Course

Have favourites performed any better at some courses compared to others? Let’s see:

 

 

The Southwell stats are based on tapeta races, so only since the change of surface; it seemed to make no sense to combine the fibresand results with them as they are no longer relevant. Southwell’s stats are the worst for favourites with losses edging close to 6p in the £. Wolverhampton has been the happiest hunting ground for jollies closely followed by Kempton.

In terms of Wolverhampton favourites, a group that have performed well are those runners who won last time out on the AW but at a different track (e.g. at any of the other five UK AW tracks). This group recorded a £69.44 profit (ROI +12%) thanks to 239 winners from 581 (SR 28.9%).

 

All-Weather Favourites by Time of Year

I would like to talk about ‘time of year’ now and below are the win strike rates by quarter:

 

 

Favourites have had the best strike rate in the first three months of the year, and the remaining metrics correlate with that time being the best for favs:

 

 

As we can see, January to March favourites would have lost us less than a penny in the £ across over 7000 selections. I am assuming this has been the case because at that time of year 91% of all favourites had raced on the AW last time out, whereas from July to December for example this figure has been less than 60%. Hence, by the start of the first quarter (January) the focus is solely the AW with it being nearly two months into the AW season, and horses are starting to run regularly on an artificial surface rather than potentially switching back and forth from the turf. That would also explain the poorer returns in the final quarter. That is simply a hypothesis but there is a definite logic behind it.

Sticking with that first quarter, we have already seen that Wolverhampton market leaders have returned the smallest losses. If we restrict Wolves favourites to January, February and March only we see the following – 586 winners from 1604 runners (SR 36.5%) for a profit of £96.53 (ROI +6%).

 

All-Weather Favourites by Class of Race

A look at Race Class now. The splits are shown below:

 

 

The highest two classes of race have proved profitable, but what is more interesting perhaps has been the very poor performance of favourites in Class 3 races. The losses have been significant at over 13p in the £. Most Class 3 events were handicaps, and handicaps actually produced losses close 15p in the £.

My initial theory for why favourites performed poorly in this class was that is may just be down to variance, but I back checked the 2010 to 2017 Class 3 results and noted that they produced similar overall losses (11p in the £). I cannot come up with a logical reason why favourites have struggled in these particular races, but the long-term stats suggest that this has been the case.

 

All-Weather Favourites by Days since last run

Moving on to how long it has been since the horse last ran, and there have been a couple of timeframes that have proved profitable over the past eight years:

 

 

Hence favourites having a very recent run, or one coming back off a break of 5 months or more have performed above the norm.

 

All-Weather Favourites by Headgear

Personally I am a little sceptical when it comes to fancied runners wearing headgear and favourites have had a poor record wearing blinkers over this period. They scored 27.2% of the time (382 wins from 1405) for losses of £168.40 (ROI -12%). This performance was worse if we focus on handicaps only – 305 wins from 1203 runners for a loss of £164.90 (ROI -13.7%).

 

All-Weather Favourites by Draw

I wondered how well favourites fared from the poorest draws, although I knew that data for specific course and distance combinations was going to be limited. What I wanted to know is how favourites fared when berthed in one of the three widest draws at Kempton over 6f, Wolves over 5f and Chelmsford over 5f. I currently perceive these three track/trip combos to offer the strongest AW biases - and, from a positive perspective, to inside draws, I should add. I looked at handicaps only as they offer the most robust results as far as draw data is concerned.

 

 

We're dealing with small samples here as I had anticipated, but all three confirm that favourites really struggled.

One other draw bias which I looked at was Kempton over 7f, but my reading of that bias is that horses need to be drawn very wide (in double figure stalls) to be really disadvantaged there. Hence, I looked at the performance of favourites from the three widest draws over 7f at Kempton with the caveat that the draw must be a double figure one. With such restrictions there were only 30 horses that were favourite under those circumstances, but they did struggle with only 5 winning and losses were steep at 46p in the £.

 

All-Weather Favourites by Trainer

Finally I wanted to see which trainers have done well with favourites and which ones have not. Firstly, let me share a chart of the trainers whose A/E index (based on BSP) is 1.15 or higher. This type of figure suggests their favourites have been very good value. To qualify, a trainer must have had at least 75 horses that started as favourite.

 

 

It is nice to see some different trainers appearing and indeed it makes sense that less familiar names would show up when looking in such an obvious place as market leaders. Jim Goldie tops the chart with an outstanding 1.50 A/E index and all seven on the chart have unsurprisingly been blindly profitable as the table below shows:

 

 

Not all trainers have done well when saddling the market leader, though. The table below shows the handlers that had recorded losses of more than 25p in the £ (again 75 runs minimum to qualify).

 

 

The most interesting name in the list for me is Charlie Johnston; his father Mark had a very good record with favourites at the start of this time frame. From 2018 to when he retired at the end of 2022 his record with favourites read an impressive 144 winners from 331 (SR 43.5%) for a profit of £54.25 (ROI +16.4%), A/E(BSP) 1.13. There has been a clear change in success for favourites since Charlie took over, perhaps as a result of a different focus or training modus operandi.

 

Conclusion

This article has highlighted plenty of positives and negatives. I have put the main ones in the table below as a type of ‘ready reckoner’. I have excluded the trainers as their tables are nearby and easy to access.

 

 

I hope this article will prove useful over the rest of the AW season as well as the remainder of 2026 as a whole. Obviously, we cannot always tell who is going to be favourite, especially in very competitive races. However, if we are able to back as close to the off as possible then we should know the favourite pre-race around 95% of the time.

- DR

Derek Thompson signs off at Wolverhampton

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Even though there was a clear winner, a trademark shout of “photo!” from Derek Thompson was an appropriate way of bringing the curtain down on his 60-year commentary career at Wolverhampton.

Thompson announced late last year he would retire from commentating in 2025 and subsequently identified Tuesday night’s six-race fixture at Dunstall Park as his last ahead of his upcoming 75th birthday.

With well wishers aplenty on track, ‘Tommo’ called home the first three winners on the card, his final race being the appropriately named It’s A Photo – Big Fella EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes.

The Marco Botti-trained Space Bear (100-30) was a decisive two-length winner in the hands of Luke Morris, but that did not stop Thompson having some fun inside the final furlong, as he said: “Space Bear now takes it up, from Jowalla, coming from a long way back is Lyra Lea, but it’s Space Bear whose going to win the It’s A Photo – Big Fella European Breeders Fund Maiden Stakes!”

Ian Bartlett commentated on the final three races, but Thompson remained in the thick of the action and was on hand to present the connections of Ballsgrove Boy with their winner’s prize following his success in the concluding Thanks For Everything Tommo – Happy Retirement Handicap.

Thompson told Sky Sports Racing: “It has been absolutely incredible, I’m nearly shedding a tear. It’s a ridiculous as I’m a tough cookie, but this is marvellous tonight.

“I’ve enjoyed it and people have come from all over to be here tonight. Normally after the last race people are rushing off to their cars but we’d had thousands here, it’s superb.”

On his final call, he added: “I’ll never ever forget it. I’m quite moved and it’s difficult to concentrate as I’m not working any more – I’m talking into the microphone, but I’m not holding it.”

Thompson remains one of the most recognisable figures in the racing industry having spent time commentating on-course and for BBC radio, while also presenting for ITV, Channel 4, At The Races and Sky Sports Racing during a nearly 60-year broadcasting career.

He was even part of a three-strong party alongside Lord Oaksey and The Sun’s Peter Campling that attempted to negotiate the release of Shergar after the 1981 Derby winner was kidnapped.

And while his long spell commentating in Britain has come to an end, Thompson has no intention of hanging up his microphone entirely, with several racecourses continuing to use him as a raceday presenter, while he will also continue his association with racing in Jersey.

Derek Thompson at York last year
Derek Thompson at York last year (Mike Egerton/PA)

He said: “I’ve got Ascot at lunchtime on Friday and then York on Friday evening, Ascot on Saturday and then go to Jersey on Saturday night/Sunday.

“I am going to settle down a bit and enjoy. I am going to miss the commentary because the commentary box is the best view and the best seat in the house.”

Speaking to Sky Sports Racing presenter Simon Mapletoft, Thompson signed off perfectly with: “I’ve had a great career. Thanks big fella and by the way, it’s a photo!”

Revisiting All-Weather Draw Biases

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It has been a while since I looked at all-weather draw biases so with plenty more racing on those surfaces to come this winter it seemed a good time to revisit the stats, writes Dave Renham.

Introduction

When I think about draw biases in turf racing, they tend to be far less predictable or consistent than draw biases on the all-weather (AW). There are a few reasons why this tends to be the case:

1. Some turf courses are increasing the number of meetings and they move rails to alter where the horses run. This can nullify or even change a draw bias.

2. The positioning of the stalls can change at some courses altering the track location that the horses are running from each draw. For example, on a straight track a horse could be drawn 1 when the stalls are positioned far side and be next to the far rail, but if the stalls on are the stands’ side the horse drawn 1 could be out in the middle of the course. Hence, if we hypothetically assume that the ground next to the far rail is quicker than the ground down the centre, then a horse drawn 1 could have a big advantage if the stalls are placed far side. Conversely if the stalls are stands' side, then the horse drawn 1 does not have this advantage. Moreover, running against a rail is generally more of an advantage than running in the middle of the track.

3. Turf courses use watering which potentially can change the going on certain parts of a track: that may then have an impact on any bias.

As far as the AW is concerned, these three reasons are not much of an issue. At AW courses the rails are fixed so moving them is not an option, and the position of the stalls doesn’t change either. Also, the going tends to be very similar on all-weather – the surface they race on is clearly the same each time, and whether it rides ‘standard’ or slower than ‘standard’ depends on the specific course surface, any additional harrowing undertaken and possibly the weather conditions.

The table below shows the percentage of races at each course in the past three years that has ridden either ‘standard’ or ‘standard to slow’. Those are the only two going descriptions we have had since the start of 2022.

 

 

As can be seen most of the courses primarily race on ‘standard’ going. At Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton they rarely race on slower going. Kempton has raced on ‘standard to slow’ at every meeting over the past three years (indeed every meeting since 11th July 2018 - when does that become the new 'standard'? - Ed.), while Southwell sees slower ground about one meeting in five.

Newcastle is the course where there is the most even split with just under two-thirds of meetings having raced on ‘standard’, the other third on ‘standard to slow’. It should be noted that between the months of June and September around 60% of the Newcastle meetings have been on ‘standard to slow’, so one could logically surmise that either drier or warmer weather has the most impact in terms of the going there. All the course data points to the fact that how an AW course rides is rarely affected by significant changes in going.

In addition to all of the above, four of the six UK AW tracks see all races run around a bend. This can help in terms of consistency when it comes to the draw. Running around a bend means horses running closest to the rail having to run a shorter distance, thus on round courses lower draws tend to have an edge because they are drawn closer to the inside.

This introduction has made the hypothetical case for more consistent draw bias on the artifical surfaces, so let us see if this has actually been the case. The draw data I have collated goes back to the start of 2017 with the focus on 8+ runner handicaps, which are the best races to analyse when it comes to the draw. I will be looking at four course/distance combinations in detail, arguably the four strongest AW draw biases, starting with the minimum trip at Chelmsford.

Chelmsford 5f

The 5f distance at Chelmsford should favour lower draws because the bend they run starts little more than a furlong into the race and then sweeps round for two further furlongs until they turn into the straight. The racecourse map is shown below:

 

 

Let us look at the draw splits for the whole-time frame in terms of win percentages within each third of the draw:

 


 

As expected, lower draws have an edge over middle drawn runners, who in turn enjoy an advantage over high draw runners. If there was no bias all these figures should be close to the 33.3% mark. The lower the draw the better with horses drawn 1 winning 31 races (18.3% of all races), horses drawn 2 winning 24 (14.2%). Combined, the two lowest draws have won 55 races, compared with the two highest drawn horses in each race who have collectively won 22 between them.

This suggests that horses drawn in the lowest two stalls are 2.5 times more likely to win than those drawn in the highest two stalls. This disparity increases when the number of runners increases, peaking at 4.3 times more likely when the field size is 11 or 12. It should also be noted that horses drawn 1 have made a profit to SP and BSP, as have those drawn 2. The profits are very small to SP, but with 169 runs for each stall position this suggests there is some value backing these two draws.

In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) there is positive correlation with the win data with low on 0.54, middle 0.52 and high down at 0.45.

If we now look at the record of the lowest third of the draw by individual year we might expect to see big fluctuations, due mainly to small sample sizes and standard variances. To counter that, I have grouped the annual data in a slightly different way using a method I first saw in Nick Mordin’s excellent book, Winning Without Thinking. He looked at data in batches / groups of years, which is a good way to compare things more effectively due to more reliable sample sizes. You can also see patterns changing more easily – if indeed they do change. He used five-year batches; I’m going to look at four-year batches. Below is a graph comparing the win percentage for the lowest third of the draw using the batch/group method:

 


 

The bias has remained fairly consistent with all four-year batches showing 40%+ figures. The graph suggests that there may be a slight strengthening of the bias over the last eight years but, regardless of whether that is true, it is clear I hope that this bias is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Before moving on, there seems to be a draw bias ‘cut off point’ at stall 7. Specifically, horses drawn 7 or lower have won 144 races from 1183 runners (SR 12.2%). Those drawn 8 or higher have won 25 races from 424 runners (SR 5.9%). In addition, over this track and trip, horses drawn 11 or 12 (the maximum field size is 12) are 1 win from 50 (SR 2%).

My betting strategy as regards the draw over 5f at Chelmsford is to primarily focus on horses drawn 1 and 2, but I am prepared to look at horses drawn as high as 7. Those drawn 8 or higher will get a line through them unless they have several strong factors to bring to the table.

 

Chelmsford 6f

Remaining at Chelmsford we move up a furlong to six. With the bend being an additional furlong away from the start, one would expect that the low draw bias might be less potent than it is over 5f. Let’s look at the win percentages by third of draw first:

 


 

As expected the edge for low draws is less strong and, also, high draws have fared much better at this trip in terms of wins compared with 5f. However, in Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) terms the figures are more akin to the 5f cohort, especially looking at the low third and the high third. The PRB for low draws stands at 0.55 (0.54 over 5f), middle lies on 0.49 (0.52 over 5f) and high at 0.46 (0.45 over 5f). These figures suggest low’s advantage over high is similar to that of the minimum distance. The win & placed figures are also very similar when comparing the draw thirds over the two distances. Essentially, I would say that from a win perspective, the bias is less strong over six furlongs while in terms of getting placed it is similar.

It should also be noted that the maximum field size over 6f is 14, two more than over five furlongs. It is rare that 13 or 14 runners come to post here but, for the record, no horse drawn 13 or 14 won in the eight-year period from 38 runners to try.

Looking through the value lens, however, using A/E indices, higher draws have scored best. Their figure of 0.92 is well above the low figure of 0.81 and middle one of 0.82. Perhaps bookmakers and punters perceive the bias to be stronger than it is at this distance.

My betting strategy as regards the draw over 6f at Chelmsford is to only rule out horses drawn 13 or 14. Hence for most races that means I would not be put off by any draw position. Indeed, as the A/E indices showed there is probably value looking higher than lower. [In fact, run style is arguably much more material at this course and distance - see this article (from late 2021), partially replicated below.

 

 

Kempton 6f

Traditionally this range at Kempton has produced the strongest and most consistent draw bias on the AW. For years low draws have held sway. There is a similarly strong bias over 5f, but qualifying races are rare with only three in the past three years (that trio were won by horses drawn 1, 1 and 2). Let us look at the win percentage splits for each third of the draw going back to 2017:

 

Low draws have won 46.5% of all races which is the biggest percentage for any all-weather course and distance combination using the 8+ runner handicaps condition. Additionally, the number of races during this time frame was 400 so a strong sample size. Backing horses drawn 3 or 4 would have yielded a profit to BSP of 10p in the £. In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) these figure correlate positively showing that clear edge to lower drawn runners:

 


 

The low to high comparison of 0.57 to 0.42 further illustrates the strength of this bias. From a punting perspective low draws offer the best value as well, with an A/E index of 0.93 compared with 0.88 for middle draws and a lowly 0.68 for high.

Earlier I discussed a Nick Mordin idea of grouping data in yearly batches to give more accurate comparisons over different time frames / years. As I did with Chelmsford over 5f earlier, here are the four-year win percentages over 6f at Kempton for the lowest third of the draw using this grouping method:

 


 

As can be seen this bias has remained consistently strong over the whole of the eight-year time frame. I also used this idea for the PRBs, across all three sections of the draw, and we see excellent consistency once more.

 

 

Before moving on, it should be noted once more that the low draw bias increases as field size increases. The maximum field size is 12 and looking solely at races contested by 11 or 12 runners, the lowest third of the draw won more than half (52.2%) of the races with a PRB of 0.59; the highest third won just a sixth of the time with a PRB of 0.41.

 

Wolverhampton 5f

The fourth and final course/distance combination takes us to Wolverhampton and their minimum trip. Let's start with a look at the draw splits based on win percentage by third of the draw:

 

The implication is again of a decent low draw bias, with a repeat of the pattern seen above in terms of the lower the better. The PRB figures correlate positively with the win percentage splits as the graph below illustrates:

 


 

All things considered one would much rather be drawn low than high.

Let us now compare 2017-2020 with 2021-2024 rather than the 4-yearly groupings I used earlier. I am doing this for two reasons: one, to mix the article up a bit; and two, to clearly highlight the more recent struggles of higher draws. This would have been shown using the earlier Mordin method, too, just so readers know I’m not moving the goalposts in any way:

 


 

The chart illustrates how higher draws have diminished nearly 8% in terms of win success across the two four-yearly time frames. This is quite a steep decline but it is not easy to understand why. One reason may be because the average price of the highest three drawn runners has been slightly higher in the 2021-2024 period compared with 2017-2020. However, the average price difference is negligible really and it could be a 'self-fulfilling prophecy' due to this bias being subsumed in the market, so perhaps something else is going on. Maybe it is down to statistical variance? It is impossible to say.

My final graph this week shows the win success rate of each individual stall / draw position at Wolverhampton over 5f.

 

 

This presents a clear indication that stall 4 is probably the cut-off point for top bias. In fact, if you had backed stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 blind over the eight-year review period you would have ended up with a profit to BSP of £102.79 to £1 level stakes. This equates to a 7p in the £ return.

Summary

To conclude, the draw biases shown have been highly consistent especially in terms of the strongest stall positions which, in each case, has been the lowest drawn third.

Wolverhampton 5f has been less consistent with its high draw data, but overall, the draw biases at these four track/range combos have virtually remained the same throughout the eight-year period. In addition, there is no reason to suggest this might change any time soon (although markets are likely to eventually further cotton on and adjust prices accordingly).

Finally, and the most important thing from a punter’s perspective, low draws continue to offer the best value at each of Chelmsford 5f, Kempton 6f and Wolverhampton 5f, while fielding against the bias with higher draws over 6f at Chelmsford - especially with runners capable of a forward run style - looks the way to go.

Until next week.

- DR

Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases

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A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.

Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.

Introduction

Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable. 

The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.

The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

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Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases

It is time to start the countdown:

10. Kempton 7f

Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.

Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:

 

 

An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.

 

9. Lingfield 6f

Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:


 

Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.

At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.

 

8. Chelmsford 1m

This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs): 

 

 

As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.

 

7. Kempton 6f

Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.

 


 

Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.

 

6. Chelmsford 6f

The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 

 

These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.

Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.

 

5. Wolverhampton 5f

The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:

 


 

This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:

 

 

Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.

In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.

 

4. Chelmsford 7f

The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:

 


 

Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.

It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:

 


 

Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:

 

 

 

Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:

 

 

The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.

 

3. Southwell 5f

This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:

 


 

A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:

 


 

The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.

It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!

 

2. Chelmsford 5f

The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 


 

The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.

In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.

 

1. Lingfield 5f

Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:

 


 

If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.

Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:

 

 

 

Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.

 

--------------------------

Conclusion

The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.

Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.

As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.

For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.

Until next time...

- DR

 

Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez

In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.

And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.

- Matt

Tix Picks, Thursday 24/10/24

/in /by

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Carlisle, Ludlow, Nottingham, Southwell & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Wolverhampton having the biggest pot, let's take in their first six races on standard tapeta, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 4.35, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ apprentice handicap over 1m½f...

Billy McGarry has won three of his last seven and only missed out on completing a hat-trick by less than a length over this course and distance last time out. Cerulean Summer has made the frame in four of her last five and comes here after winning by two lengths over 1m1½f on this track ten days ago. Harbour Vision was headed close over over C&D five days ago, he goes well here at Wolverhampton and will be dangerous of an unchanged mark. Cobh Harbour is still a maiden after 12 starts, but has finished 434533 in his last six, so should be involve again today, whilst bottom-weight and 10-race maiden Just Typical produced his best effort to date when second of ten at Southwell 16 days ago.

Instant Expert's 2yr A/W stats show most of those named above in a good light, plus opens the door for Hellavapace, even if her very recent form is quite poor...

Leaders & prominent runners fare best in this type of race here, but only three runners have an average pace score of 2.50 or higher from their last four runs...

So, I'm definitely taking (4) Harbour Vision today and from Billy McGarry, Cerulean Summer, Cobh Harbour and Sir Titan, I'm going to side with (1) Billy McGarry and (2) Cerulean Summer

Leg 2 @ 5.10, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Front-running My Genghis comes here seeking a hat-trick after a one length win here over 6f was followed by a comfortable 5.5 length success over 5½f at Brighton a week ago. Suanni has a win and a place from his last four and Colors Of Freedom was third at Chelmsford 12 days ago, having won here over course and distance on her penultimate run.

My Kind Of Girl has yet to win after 16 attempts, but has made the frame on four of her last six, finishing as runner-up three times. Banana is somewhat unbelievably still a maiden after 35 races, but has been placed 335373 in her last six, Rockley Point was third twice in a row before finishing last of 12 at Newcastle two days ago and Hi Ho Tonto was second of twelve at Southwell earlier this month.

Instant Expert suggests that My Genghis is the one to beat here, but that plenty of others have it in their locker to get involved...

.Lower drawn runners fare well over this course/distance, which is good news for the likes of Banana, Colors Of Freedom and Hi Ho Tonto, whilst early pace is always beneficial over 5f here...

...so that's (1) My Genghis and (5) Colors Of Freedom on my ticket. (4) Suanni also ticks plenty of boxes and will be up front early, so I'll take him at the expense of Hi Ho Tonto and hope I don't regret it.

Leg 3 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m1½f...

Hillbridge has been third in three of her last four, Izipizi was a good second of eleven at Newbury in a Class 2 race two starts ago, but Magic Dream was last of six in that grade when last seen some 174 days ago, although she was second of fourteen beaten by just a head on debut at Newbury on April. Morrophore was third on debut but has been rested for 106 days after only finishing sixth at Yarmouth on her second outing and Nowhere has made the frame in three of her four starts to date and with all four coming on the A/W she's the most experienced away from turf.

The pace is ikley to come from Izipizi and Hillbridge, although Nowhere and magic Dream did both race prominently last out...

..whilst the lowest drawn runners are Morrophore, Prevasil and Nowhere.

As ever, in these novice events, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but what little I do have steers me towards (3) Hillbridge and (4) Izipizi. I was surprised to see (7) Nowhere out as long as 16/1 and bigger, as she might fare better than that here.

Leg 4 @ 6.15, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

A decent-sized field, but my initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the top end of the card with 10yo veteran Muscika and the sole filly in the race, Crimson Angel the ones to beat.

The former isn't the horse he was (obviously), but drops in class here after some decent efforts this summer. He was a runner-up beaten by just a length in a 21-runner field at York before just going down by a nose at Epsom in mid-August. he wasn't quite at it last time lout, but a drop in class against a modest-looking field and he should be on the premises again, as should Crimson Angel.

This 4yr old filly has dropped in the weights to a dangerous mark and having not been beaten by far in her last two outings, could well be ready to break her cold spell. Elsewhere Lihou won three starts ago and Musical Touch has been third twice in his last three. Honour Your Dreams and Aces Wild both have a win and two places from their last five and bottom weight Phoenix Beach's last five read 33232.

The pace is likely to come from four of those mentioned above, so that's another tick for them...

...whilst the pick of the Instant Expert stats look like this...

...so (2) Muscika is a definite pick here. I'm inclined to stick with my gut feeling about (4) Crimson Angel despite her lack of early pace and in what is a difficult decision between the other three runners on that pace graphic, I'll take the consistent placer (11) Phoenix Beach over Honour Your Dreams and Lihou.

Leg 5 @ 6.45, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

Diamond Ranger is in good nick finishing 2143 in his last four. Lartigue has made the frame in all three starts but hasn't raced for nine months, Gifted Angel comes here seeking a hat-trick and won over course and distance two starts ago. Speriamo is 122 from her last three, Crown of India has been third in five of his last six in 9-11 runner races. Oosterpark won three races ago, Cock And Bull looks in the grip of the assessor finishing 7th of 12 and 4th of 7 after a run reading 21221123 and Dashinwhitesargent has won two of his last four.

So, plenty of this field come here in decent form, but of them Diamond Ranger, Lartigue, Gifted Angel and Dashinwhiteangel seem most suited to the prevalent conditions...

and I'm just going to omit Lartigue from that quartet, as he'll probably ned a ruin after a nine-month break, leaving me with (1) Diamond Ranger, (3) Gifted Angel & (11) Dashinwhitesargent.

Leg 6 @ 7.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m1½f...

Red Treasure has made the frame in her last two starts, Renesmee's last three read 221 having beaten the re-opposing Lia Rose by half a length here over course and distance 19 days ago, but the runner-up is 1lb better off here, so they're closely matched. Lia Rose herself has finished 237232 in her last six, so she's going well, as is Shahnaz with two wins and a place from her last four. Idyllic won three starts ago and her form reads 233174, Darysina Gold's reads 221245 and Bay Dream Believer has finished 11324 in her last five, so this looks a wide-open if not high-class affair.

Of those mentioned above, Red Treasure, Renesmee, Lia Rose and Darysina Gold all step up a class here. We know Renesmme won over course and distance last time out, Kaaress has also won over this track/trip, but as a hold-up horse might struggle today.

None of this field have a particularly great record at Class 5, but that aside, my Instant Expert shortlist only has four runners on it...

All four were mentioned in my preview and if I'm honest, I'm not sure which to omit, so the easy option is to take all four in the hope we've still not tickets in play after 7pm!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Billy McGarry, (2) Cerulean Summer & (4) Harbour Vision

Leg 2: (1) My Genghis, (4) Suanni & (5) Colors Of Freedom

Leg 3: (3) Hillbridge, (4) Izipizi & (7) Nowhere

Leg 4: (2) Muscika, (4) Crimson Angel & (11) Phoenix Beach

Leg 5: (1) Diamond Ranger, (3) Gifted Angel & (11) Dashinwhitesargent

Leg 6: (2) Red Treasure, (3) Renesmee, (6) Lia Rose & (9) Idyllic

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Best of luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 19/10/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ascot, Catterick, Stratford & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

It's an absolutely huge pot on offer at Ascot, but there other writers on Geegeez to write about Champions' Day whilst I stay in my lane with my bread and butter at tracks like Wolverhampton, where the tapeta is unsurprisingly standard for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.27, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...

Simiyann has finished 212 in his last three, won here 12 days ago and was only beaten by half a length two days ago. Grand Duchess Olga also has a win and two places from her last three (133), whilst Daaris has made the first three home in nine of his last eleven without managing to win any.

Trojan Truth has two wins and an LTO runner-up finish from his last five, whilst Baileys Warrior has a win and two runner-up finishes from her last four and it is this group of five who have been the most consistent over the last couple of years...

We're not going to get much help from the draw over such a long trip and most of this field have pretty similar pace profiles, so we're going to lean on recent form and gut feeling here. Former course winner (1) Simiyann brings the best recent form to the table and (6) Baileys Warrior is the only previous course and distance winner, so I'll take both of those as most likely to go on and win here. Winning isn't something that (3) Daaris does often but he barely runs a bad race and tends to always be involved at the finish, so I'll add him at the expense of Grand Duchess Olga.

Leg 2 @ 5.00, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 1m1½f...

A pretty modest looking field that looks like a two-horse race between Corundum and Show Biz Kid. The former struggled at a higher grade last time out, but no drops back in class to the level that he was only beaten by a length and a half at Southwell on early September, which is probably the best run of any of this group.

Show Biz Kid was also a decent third at Nottingham last time out when just over a length and a half behind Phoenix Passion and a neck behind Drink Dry; this pair have both gone on to win since has has ther horse in sixth place. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't been seen since that run 136 days ago during which time he has been gelded and moved yards.

That said, it's still (1) Corundum and (2) Show Biz Kid here for me and the rest are much of a muchness.

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

We'renotreallyhere has a win and three places from his last six, Apache Canyon has been third in each of his last three and gets a 4lbs weight for age allowance. Harbour Vision was a runner-up two starts ago, Jez Bomb also gets that 4lbs allowance and has two wins and three places from his last eight starts, whilst fellow 3yo and eight-race maiden Miss Dandylion has been third four times.

Instant Expert highlights the following on 2yr place form...

...whilst over a course and distance that rewards front-runners, Harbour Vision and We'renotreallyhere might be the ones the others have to chase...

(6) Harbour Vision is a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year off a mark four pounds higher than today, he's running well, has good 2yr figures above and will be upfront here, so I'll take him along with fellow front-runner (4) We'renotreallyhere. (8) Jez Bomb brings the best recent form to the table today and he completes my selections for this one.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

None of these even made the frame last time out, but the 'form' horse must be course and distance winner Monsieur Patat with his three wins and two places in five races before going down by just over a length and a half at Kempton last time out in a race so competitive that the first eight home of the thirteen runners were only a length and three quarters apart and although the race lacks genuine early pace, he's one of those most likely to be at the head of affairs...

...alongside fellow course and distance winner Guiteau. Both of these also caught my eye on Instant Expert...

...as did Twilight Dancer to a lesser degree. She failed to see the mile out at Lingfield five weeks ago fading out of contention in the final 100yds, but was a decent second at the same track over 7f nine days earlier. Back in April, she actually made all to win over 7f at Brighton, where pace is essential, so that early speed is definitely in her locker. She's 6lbs lower than that win today so (4) Twilight Dancer joins (2) Monsieur Patat and (3) Guiteau on my Tix ticket builder.

Leg 5 @ 6.30, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...

Rosenzoo looks a better horse on the A/W than he does on turf where he has been last home of five and last of six on his last two attempts compared with finishes of 122 from his three visits to Wolverhampton, going down by just a head last time out. Warren Hill wasn't seen at this best at Windsor on his last run, but had previously caught the eye when winning there over 1m2f on her penultimate outing. She missed the break, but ran on strongly to win by a length and a quarter with seemingly plenty in the tank.

Handicap debutant Monsieur Fudge is interesting after a couple of solid efforts making the frame at both Newmarket and Salisbury a year apart and a similar run puts him in contention here. I mentioned Drink Dry earlier in this piece after his runner-up finish at Nottingham in June. He then won at Beverley and was a decent third at Sandown last time out. This quartet would be my form shortlist, whilst the pace averages here are headed by three of this group...

I don't think there's a huge advantage to be gleaned from the draw, but the central area (stalls 4 to 7) seem the best place to be...

...which is where Rosenzoo finds himself, whilst my other three possibles are out in 9, 10 & 11 of 11 stalls! (7) Rosenzoo ticks most boxes here for me and I think that the 4yo filly (1) Warren Hill might actually be the best horse in the race irrespective of today's result, so I'm taking those two. It's then a tricky call between the other two, but I'm going to take a punt on the unexposed handicap debutant (4) Monsieur Fudge, who might improve past Drink Dry here.

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...

Salamanca Lad has won three times from his last seven outings, making the frame in two of the four defeats and can still go well of an unchanged mark of 78. Visibility won here over course and distance twelve days ago after two narrow defeats in third place at this track but at a furlong shorter. getting beat so close over the shorter trip and needing all of today's distance to get home last time out suggests he might need a bit further, but he's bang in form and loves it here at Wolverhampton.

Elsewhere Rocket Warrior has two wins and two places from his last six, Local Bay has four wins and two places from his last nine, Charlies Choice has five top-three finishes (2 wins) from his last seven and Secret World has made the frame in three of his last four.

Three of the six mentioned above head the pace averages...

...with (4) Salamanca Lad likely to try and nick the race from the off and both he and (3) Rocket Warrior are drawn in that stalls 4 to 7 range I mentioned in the previous race, so I'll take both of these based on form, draw and pace.

My other four shortlisted runners look like this on Instant Expert...

...so there's a case to be made for any of them, but I just feel that (7) Visibility brings the best recent form to the table and he really loves it here at Wolverhampton.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Simiyann, (3) Daaris & (6) Baileys Warrior

Leg 2: (1) Corundum & (2) Show Biz Kid

Leg 3: (4) We'renotreallyhere, (6) Harbour Vision & (8) Jez Bomb

Leg 4: (2) Monsieur Patat, (3) Guiteau & (4) Twilight Dancer

Leg 5: (1) Warren Hill, (4) Monsieur Fudge & (7) Rosenzoo

Leg 6: (3) Rocket Warrior, (4) Salamanca Lad & (7) Visibility

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck and I hope you have a great weekend. No column Monday, I'm afraid, I'm tied up with hospital appointments with my elderly mother-in-law, so I'll see you next Tuesday.

Chris

 

Tix Picks, Monday 14/10/24

/in /by

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hereford, Kempton, Musselburgh, Windsor & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The largest pot is at Wolverhampton where the tapeta is said to standard for...

Leg 1 @ 4.25, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

No LTO winners here, but fast finisher Lets Go Hugo and Phoenix Beach were both runners-up and the latter has finished 332 in his last three starts (all here at Wolverhampton). Blue Force was third last time out and has a win and two places from his last four, as does Aces Wild who drops in class here.

Of those four, only Blue Force has yet to win over 5f here at Wolverhampton, although he did so at Newcastle a month ago. Betweenthesticks and class-dropper Maharajas Express are also former course and distance winners and all six runners named so far show well on Instant Expert...

...with Aces Wild, Let's Go Hugo & Phoenix Beach the eye-catchers from that. This drawn lower have fared better over this track and trip in the past, but as with most 5f races, pace is key. Symbol of Hope is the most likely from-runner today, but of my shortlisted six, the head of the pace ratings looks like this...

...and with pace having with the same top three as Instant Expert, I have to side with (1) Aces Wild, (4) Let's Go Hugo & (5) Phoenix Beach

Leg 2 @ 5.00, an 8-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 5f...

Binadham is the only former winner in the field and is top rated at 91. He won a Class 5 maiden on debut at Yarmouth in June and backed that up with a creditable 6th of 13 in an Ascot Group 2 race in June. Since then, he has been well beaten at both Gr 2 and Listed class and now drops back to Class 3. Bonnies Boy was a runner-up in each of his first three starts (beaten narrowly in races 2 & 3) before finding a Class 2 handicap a little warm for him next/last time out and he also drops in class here.

Colocolo has made the frame twice in his four starts, Veblen Good was a runner-up on debut at Sandown a month ago and Lucid was also an LTO runner-up, beaten at Kempton but hasn't raced for 166 days now. Optimistic and Queenofdestruction have yet to race and the latter is the bottom weight here and was also a £100k purchase at the Breeze-Up.

Colocolo and Bonnies Boy have both led/raced prominently in their last two starts which is a positive over 5f here at Wolverhampton and of those two I prefer (2) Bonnies Boy. There was much to like about (6) Veblen Good's debut and with these stats behind her...

...I'd be inclined to go with debutante (8) Queenofdestruction at the expense of recently-disappointing Binadham.

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...

Mesaafi has made the frame in four of his last six, Glitterella has been runner-up in two of her last three and handicap debutant Borealis Thunder has been third in two of her three career starts, but the field is short on wins, although Rusheen Boy did go 112 in December/January prior to three modest efforts (506) more recently and he steps up in class here. Ziggy's Queen is down three classes today and Pals Battalion & State of Madness also both drop in class.

The consistent (2) Mesaafi is a fairly easy pick in a fairly open race and I think (6) Pals Battalion might just be the best of the rest. He's also pretty consistent and as ever, his yard/jockey are going well...

As for the rest, you can make a case for and against all of them, but I think that dropping three classes here might just tip things towards (3) Ziggys Queen.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Vaunted won at Bath last time out and drops three classes here. She's noted as a fast finisher and has finished 231U31 in her last six outings. Sonmarg doesn't win often but has been the runner-up in four of her last seven and also finished third in one of them, so he's a consitent placer.

Em Jay Kay won three starts ago, Novak and Snooze Lane both finished third last time out, whilst Buttercross Flyer and A Pint of Bear were runners-up over course and distance, the latter by just a short head.

(2) Sonmarg has got the low draw that seems favoured here and Instant Expert highlights his consistency...

...so I'll be adding him to my Tix ticket builder along with (5) Novak on that evidence above. Elsewhere, I like that recent near-miss by (12) A Pint of Bear over this track/trip, but also the recent form of (10) Vaunted. The latter represents more of a gamble, as she has very little A/W experience and all her best work has been at 5f/5½f, so she misses out here and I Hope it's not a decision that comes back to bite me.

Leg 5 @ 6.30, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...

My initial thoughts here were that this could well be a two-horse race between the six year old mares Baileys Warrior and Addosh with the other six runners scrapping for the £699 third prize

Addosh proved her stamina in a runner-up finish over 2m1f in a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot last month when only beaten by a neck, whilst Baileys Warrior won over this track and trip three weeks ago for a second win in her last twelve outings. That doesn't sound prolific, but in the ten races she failed to win, she was a runner-up five times and finished third once, so she has made the frame in 66.6% of her last dozen races.

This level of consistency is highlighted by Instant Expert, which also suggests that Easy Equation might be the best of the rest...

The truth is that I can't see both (1) Addosh and (2) Baileys Warrior failing to make the frame, so I won't add a third pick, but I might well have a cheeky E/W punt on Easy Equation who looks quite long to me at a generally available 25/1. After all, this approach worked well for me on Saturday with 40/1 shot Bowman.

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

We end with another very open-looking race bereft of recent winners, although Rubellite and Kenstone come here after being runners-up last time out and despite being 11 yrs old, the latter is still running pretty well at this level, making the frame in six of eleven starts over the last year.

Fitz Perfectly was third last time out and Olympic Quest is a former course and distance winner. She has struggled of late with three heavy defeats at Bath in her last four starts, but was only beaten by 2 lengths over today's track and trip three starts ago and might relish a return to the Tapeta, having won here six back in January off 2lbs higher than today.

Over the last two years, Van Zant, Port Noir, Forever Proud, Rubellite and Kenstone set the standard on the A/W, although Port Noir's number are marred by a series of unplaced efforts over shorter trips here at Wolverhampton...

...and with (3) Van Zant also a confirmed front-runner...

...he has to go on my tickets. The manner of (8) Rubellite's runner-up finish at Newcastle suggests that she could go well here too. He won here over 1m1½f at the turn of the year and looks like coming back into form after a recent switch to a more prominent running style. Forever Proud is the likely favourite here today, but she lacks consistency and the results say she has only really run well over 1m2f at Lingfield. This is a shorter trip on a different surface, so I think I'll stick with the consistent old-timer (9) Kenstone for this one.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Aces Wild, (4) Let's Go Hugo & (5) Phoenix Beach

Leg 2: (2) Bonnies Boy, (6) Veblen Good & (8) Queenofdestruction

Leg 3: (2) Mesaafi, (3) Ziggys Queen & (6) Pals Battalion

Leg 4: (2) Sonmarg, (5) Novak & (12) A Pint of Bear

Leg 5: (1) Addosh & (2) Baileys Warrior

Leg 6: (3) Van Zant, (8) Rubellite & (9) Kenstone

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Windsor & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

So let's head for Wolverhampton for a crack at six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 : 4.15 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 5f...

Startling was a revelation in a first time hood last time out, winning here over course and distance nine days ago and needless to say the hood is in place once again. Deal Maker is the only other runner in the field to have won a race, as she scored over 5f at Southwell on debut. Pure Liberty was third behind Startling last time, beaten by a length and three quarters and should get closer now she's 5lbs better off. Top weight Dubai Magic drops two classes here for a handicap debut and also takes a drop in trip. Her yard does well here at Wolverhampton and jockey Clifford Lee has had a great year riding for this stable...

and I think I'll take (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty here.

Leg 2 : 4.50 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ novice stakes over 5f...

My initial shortlist here was All Ways Glamorous, Glowchester, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr. All Ways Glamorous has been knocking on the door of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three with ever decreasing margins of defeat and today could well be the day. Glowchester has also got closer to winning in each of last three runs, finishing 432 and also only went down by a neck last time out, so these two make the ticket.

Of the other three runners to have raced so far, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr have shown more than Gigastar. Of those two, the former has been off the track for almost four months, whilst Mockirr's yard have a good record at Wolverhampton and also do well with runners on their second outing...

...so I'm going with (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester here.

Leg 3 : 5.25 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

The 3yo filly Shamardia has been a winner and a runner-up (half a length down) in her last two starts and she's clearly the horse in form here, although course winner Coconut Bay scored at Catterick three starts ago too. Araifjan, Coast and Neptune Legend have all won over course and distance, but haven't really produced anything in their last three or four outings and to be honest, only four of the field have shown any consistency at all over the last couple of years on the A/W...

(3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay are the more obvious picks for me here and I think I'll also go with course and distance winner (5) Araifjan on his second run after a wind op.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Not the best race you'll ever see, but it certainly looks open/competitive with cases to be made for most of the field. War Chant, Hartswood and Cavalry Call all won last time out, which boosts their claims. Local Bay has won four of his last seven, Winterfair has been placed third in four of his last six whilst bottom weight Between Me And U has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

From a win perspective, Instant Expert is keenest on the three drawn lowest of all...

...whilst the pace in the race looks like coming from...

I definitely want to take Cavalry Call and War Chant here, leaving me with a choice between Winterfair and Between Me And U, I suppose. The latter is in better form, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace, so in a tricky one to assess, I'm with (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Nights Over Egypt won last time out and Kristal Klear won two starts ago, before stepping up in class and going down by just a head as a runner-up at Haydock earlier this month. She's back down in class and the winner from Haydock has since won again and have the horses placed fourth and fifth, so I'd expect Kristal Klear to go well here today. LTO winner Nights Over Egypt is one of only two course winners in the field (Top Button is the other, but looks hindered by being drawn 12 of 12).

Higher drawn runners have fared worse here over this track and trip when it comes to making the frame, so lower drawn horses with early pace have been the ones to look at, which suggests this trio might be in with a shout...

...further cementing the claims of Kristal Klear. I do still want to take Nights Over Egypt, as I think these two are far better than the rest who seem much of a muchness if truth be told. Dynamite Katie has been a runner-up in two of her last four, has the lowest draw possible, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace. She'd be a long shot to win, I'd reckon but I'm taking (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie here.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Swinging Eddie won at Catterick last time out but hasn't raced for almost ten weeks. That said, none of the others even made the frame and Swinging Eddie has 3 win and 2 further places from nine efforts over course/distance, making him one to watch. Lady Wingalong has also had a bit of a break (7 weeks), but with five placed finishes from her last six outings does arrive here in decent nick, as does Awaysmont with two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six. Carvalhal won four races ago and Gilt Edge has two wins and two places from her seven runs this year.

Instant Expert suggests that American Rose could be well suited by conditions here too and she did win on her last A/W start...

...but the draw seems to be against her and Gilt Edge...

...whilst the pace stats back up Swinging Eddie's claims and also suggest that Carvalhal might be difficult to rein in...

I've got to take (1) Swinging Eddie and (3) Lady Wingalong here based on form, but those pace stats also make (8) Carvalhal a live prospect from a middling draw.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester

Leg 3: (3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay & (5) Araifjan

Leg 4: (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U

Leg 5: (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie

Leg 6: (1) Swinging Eddie, (3) Lady Wingalong & (8) Carvalhal

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as ever!
Chris

Pace Wins The Race: 6f All Weather Handicaps

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In my most recent article, we looked at pace bias in 5f handicaps on the all weather, and as promised here is a follow-up looking at the 6f trip, writes Dave Renham.

For regular readers I appreciate the next few lines in some form or other seem to appear in all my pace articles, but for the benefit of new readers I need to clarify the following: when discussing pace the main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. At www.geegeez.co.uk there is a pace tab within the racecards for each race, and the stats in this article are based on the site’s pace data. These pace data on Geegeez are split into four sections each of which are assigned points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). For all my articles I concentrate on the numerical values to create a plethora of hopefully useful stats.

The minimum distance of five furlongs gives the strongest pace bias on the flat as previous articles have illustrated. However, there is still a bias to pace horses/front runners over an extra furlong, which I will demonstrate in what follows.

The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall pace perspective for 6f all weather handicaps with six or more runners (the data for this article has been taken from the last 5 years 2014 to 2018):

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 325 1812 17.9 1.75
Prominent (3) 523 4448 11.8 1.15
Mid Division (2) 155 2003 7.7 0.79
Held Up (1) 357 4886 7.3 0.72

 

These stats give front runners a solid edge – it is not as strong as over 5f but it is still significant. Just for comparison purposes let us look at the strike rates (SR%) and Impact Values (IVs) for 6f and for 5f:

 

Pace comment 6f 5f   6f 5f
  SR% SR%   IV IV
Led (4) 17.9 22.3   1.75 2.04
Prominent (3) 11.8 12.5   1.15 1.15
Mid Division (2) 7.7 6.5   0.79 0.62
Held Up (1) 7.3 6.7   0.72 0.61

 

Over 6f front runners are still winning 1.75 times more often than average so we still have a decent starting point.

The main data for this article covers all-weather six-furlong handicaps with 6 or more runners. I then split the data into different field sizes – 6 to 8 runners; 9 – 10 runners; 11 or more runners. I did this ‘runner split’ for the 5f all-weather data in the previous article, and over that trip bigger fields produced the strongest front-running bias. As it turns out, this is replicated over 6f too:

6 to 8 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 536 104 19.4 1.41
Prominent (3) 1093 167 15.28 1.11
Mid Division (2) 304 27 8.88 0.66
Held Up (1) 988 107 10.83 0.79

 

9 to 10 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 548 100 18.25 1.73
Prominent (3) 1351 163 12.07 1.15
Mid Division (2) 549 43 7.83 0.74
Held Up (1) 1477 113 7.65 0.73

 

11 or more runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 728 121 16.62 1.98
Prominent (3) 2004 193 9.63 1.14
Mid Division (2) 1150 85 7.39 0.88
Held Up (1) 2421 137 5.66 0.67

 

The IV for front runners increases as the number of runners increases. This is somewhat counter-intuitive and is therefore worth bearing in mind.

The article that discussed 5f all weather sprints looked at each course and distance individually. Once again this is the plan here, as different courses have different layouts, and also there are differences between certain track surfaces too. Let's start with Chelmsford and work through alphabetically.

Chelmsford

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 58 278 20.9 1.97
Prominent (3) 71 562 12.6 1.19
Mid Division (2) 31 422 7.3 0.71
Held Up (1) 44 671 6.6 0.62

 

Just over a fifth of the 6f handicap races (SR 20.9%) at Chelmsford have seen the early leader going on to win. This compares with a strike rate of 26.3% over 5f: not quite as strong but with an IV close to 2 the front-running bias is still clear.

It has already been noted that in bigger fields at all of the all-weather courses the front-running bias seems to be more evident. This is certainly the case here: in races of 11 runners or more at Chelmsford, the front runner has prevailed an impressive 21 times from 87 giving a strike rate of 24.1% and an Impact Value of 2.93.

The draw seems to be material here, too, with those horses drawn nearest to the inside rail performing best when taking the early lead (all 6+ runner races). That makes sense as they will be taking advantage of the shortest route. Horses that have led early from one of the three lowest draws in these big field Chelmsford 6f handicaps have won 25% of their races with an Impact Value of 2.28.

 

Kempton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 72 388 18.6 1.85
Prominent (3) 107 938 11.4 1.14
Mid Division (2) 41 542 7.6 0.78
Held Up (1) 84 1123 7.5 0.75

 

The 6f trip at Kempton has a decent number of races each year giving punters plenty of opportunities to get involved. Front runners have a clear edge here and, as with Chelmsford, field size accentuates this.

In 6f handicaps of 11 or 12 runners (12 is the maximum at Kempton), front runners have secured 39 wins from 176 runners (SR 22.2%) with a very high Impact Value of 2.53. However, the draw data suggest there is no clear advantage to front runners drawn near to the inside rail (low).

 

Lingfield

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 68 297 22.9 2.07
Prominent (3) 76 590 12.9 1.16
Mid Division (2) 32 380 8.4 0.79
Held Up (1) 50 745 6.7 0.61

 

The statistics for Lingfield seem to suggest front runners there have the biggest edge compared with the other five UK all-weather courses. Any front runner here that is well fancied has done extremely well: horses that were either favourite or second favourite and led early over 6f here went on to win 39 times out of 80 runners equating to a win rate of nearly 50%.

 

Newcastle

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 23 143 16.1 1.74
Prominent (3) 34 394 8.6 0.94
Mid Division (2) 17 197 8.6 0.97
Held Up (1) 40 485 8.2 0.89

 

Coincidentally, the front running IV over 5f at Newcastle is also 1.74. Front runners do have an edge here but it is not a course I personally get heavily involved with, as the straight track for all distances up to a mile makes it a unique test of an all-weather horse in Britain. That greater emphasis on stamina produces the reverse to Kempton and Chelmsford, with front runners struggling in bigger fields.

 

Southwell

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 33 166 19.9 1.85
Prominent (3) 102 690 14.8 1.38
Mid Division (2) 7 124 5.6 0.57
Held Up (1) 17 491 3.5 0.32

 

A reasonable IV of 1.85 for front runners, but it is also worth noting that horses which come from midfield or off the pace really struggle here just like they do over 5f. One other area worth sharing with you is when a front runner also happens to be in the top 5 of the Geegeez speed ratings, it has won on 22 of 79 occasions (SR 27.9%) producing an IV of 2.50.

 

Wolverhampton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 71 540 13.1 1.33
Prominent (3) 133 1274 10.4 1.06
Mid Division (2) 27 338 8.0 0.87
Held Up (1) 122 1371 8.9 0.9

 

Comfortably the poorest stats for front runners are at Wolverhampton, where there is a very small edge only and little to write home about. Indeed, pace seems to be far more balanced across the run styles at Wolves than at any of the other tracks.

*

Before I finish, in other articles I have used the various figures to create course and distance pace averages. I do this by adding up the pace scores of all the winners at each course and dividing it by the total number of races. The higher the average score, the more ‘biased’ the course and distance is to horses that lead early or race close to the pace.

Here are the 6 furlong handicap C&D pace averages for the six aw courses:

 

Taking all the data into account, six furlong handicaps on the all weather do offer ‘pace’ punters a potential edge. It is, unsurprisingly perhaps, not as strong as over five furlongs, but still strong enough to give clued in bettors a good leg up on the opposition. All we need now is to find a fail-safe method to predict the front runner...

- Dave Renham