Pace Wins The Race: 6f All Weather Handicaps

In my most recent article, we looked at pace bias in 5f handicaps on the all weather, and as promised here is a follow-up looking at the 6f trip, writes Dave Renham.

For regular readers I appreciate the next few lines in some form or other seem to appear in all my pace articles, but for the benefit of new readers I need to clarify the following: when discussing pace the main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. At there is a pace tab within the racecards for each race, and the stats in this article are based on the site’s pace data. These pace data on Geegeez are split into four sections each of which are assigned points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). For all my articles I concentrate on the numerical values to create a plethora of hopefully useful stats.

The minimum distance of five furlongs gives the strongest pace bias on the flat as previous articles have illustrated. However, there is still a bias to pace horses/front runners over an extra furlong, which I will demonstrate in what follows.

The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall pace perspective for 6f all weather handicaps with six or more runners (the data for this article has been taken from the last 5 years 2014 to 2018):

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 325 1812 17.9 1.75
Prominent (3) 523 4448 11.8 1.15
Mid Division (2) 155 2003 7.7 0.79
Held Up (1) 357 4886 7.3 0.72


These stats give front runners a solid edge – it is not as strong as over 5f but it is still significant. Just for comparison purposes let us look at the strike rates (SR%) and Impact Values (IVs) for 6f and for 5f:


Pace comment 6f 5f   6f 5f
  SR% SR%   IV IV
Led (4) 17.9 22.3   1.75 2.04
Prominent (3) 11.8 12.5   1.15 1.15
Mid Division (2) 7.7 6.5   0.79 0.62
Held Up (1) 7.3 6.7   0.72 0.61


Over 6f front runners are still winning 1.75 times more often than average so we still have a decent starting point.

The main data for this article covers all-weather six-furlong handicaps with 6 or more runners. I then split the data into different field sizes – 6 to 8 runners; 9 – 10 runners; 11 or more runners. I did this ‘runner split’ for the 5f all-weather data in the previous article, and over that trip bigger fields produced the strongest front-running bias. As it turns out, this is replicated over 6f too:

6 to 8 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 536 104 19.4 1.41
Prominent (3) 1093 167 15.28 1.11
Mid Division (2) 304 27 8.88 0.66
Held Up (1) 988 107 10.83 0.79


9 to 10 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 548 100 18.25 1.73
Prominent (3) 1351 163 12.07 1.15
Mid Division (2) 549 43 7.83 0.74
Held Up (1) 1477 113 7.65 0.73


11 or more runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 728 121 16.62 1.98
Prominent (3) 2004 193 9.63 1.14
Mid Division (2) 1150 85 7.39 0.88
Held Up (1) 2421 137 5.66 0.67


The IV for front runners increases as the number of runners increases. This is somewhat counter-intuitive and is therefore worth bearing in mind.

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The article that discussed 5f all weather sprints looked at each course and distance individually. Once again this is the plan here, as different courses have different layouts, and also there are differences between certain track surfaces too. Let's start with Chelmsford and work through alphabetically.


Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 58 278 20.9 1.97
Prominent (3) 71 562 12.6 1.19
Mid Division (2) 31 422 7.3 0.71
Held Up (1) 44 671 6.6 0.62


Just over a fifth of the 6f handicap races (SR 20.9%) at Chelmsford have seen the early leader going on to win. This compares with a strike rate of 26.3% over 5f: not quite as strong but with an IV close to 2 the front-running bias is still clear.

It has already been noted that in bigger fields at all of the all-weather courses the front-running bias seems to be more evident. This is certainly the case here: in races of 11 runners or more at Chelmsford, the front runner has prevailed an impressive 21 times from 87 giving a strike rate of 24.1% and an Impact Value of 2.93.

The draw seems to be material here, too, with those horses drawn nearest to the inside rail performing best when taking the early lead (all 6+ runner races). That makes sense as they will be taking advantage of the shortest route. Horses that have led early from one of the three lowest draws in these big field Chelmsford 6f handicaps have won 25% of their races with an Impact Value of 2.28.



Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 72 388 18.6 1.85
Prominent (3) 107 938 11.4 1.14
Mid Division (2) 41 542 7.6 0.78
Held Up (1) 84 1123 7.5 0.75


The 6f trip at Kempton has a decent number of races each year giving punters plenty of opportunities to get involved. Front runners have a clear edge here and, as with Chelmsford, field size accentuates this.

In 6f handicaps of 11 or 12 runners (12 is the maximum at Kempton), front runners have secured 39 wins from 176 runners (SR 22.2%) with a very high Impact Value of 2.53. However, the draw data suggest there is no clear advantage to front runners drawn near to the inside rail (low).



Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 68 297 22.9 2.07
Prominent (3) 76 590 12.9 1.16
Mid Division (2) 32 380 8.4 0.79
Held Up (1) 50 745 6.7 0.61


The statistics for Lingfield seem to suggest front runners there have the biggest edge compared with the other five UK all-weather courses. Any front runner here that is well fancied has done extremely well: horses that were either favourite or second favourite and led early over 6f here went on to win 39 times out of 80 runners equating to a win rate of nearly 50%.



Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 23 143 16.1 1.74
Prominent (3) 34 394 8.6 0.94
Mid Division (2) 17 197 8.6 0.97
Held Up (1) 40 485 8.2 0.89


Coincidentally, the front running IV over 5f at Newcastle is also 1.74. Front runners do have an edge here but it is not a course I personally get heavily involved with, as the straight track for all distances up to a mile makes it a unique test of an all-weather horse in Britain. That greater emphasis on stamina produces the reverse to Kempton and Chelmsford, with front runners struggling in bigger fields.



Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 33 166 19.9 1.85
Prominent (3) 102 690 14.8 1.38
Mid Division (2) 7 124 5.6 0.57
Held Up (1) 17 491 3.5 0.32


A reasonable IV of 1.85 for front runners, but it is also worth noting that horses which come from midfield or off the pace really struggle here just like they do over 5f. One other area worth sharing with you is when a front runner also happens to be in the top 5 of the Geegeez speed ratings, it has won on 22 of 79 occasions (SR 27.9%) producing an IV of 2.50.



Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 71 540 13.1 1.33
Prominent (3) 133 1274 10.4 1.06
Mid Division (2) 27 338 8.0 0.87
Held Up (1) 122 1371 8.9 0.9


Comfortably the poorest stats for front runners are at Wolverhampton, where there is a very small edge only and little to write home about. Indeed, pace seems to be far more balanced across the run styles at Wolves than at any of the other tracks.


Before I finish, in other articles I have used the various figures to create course and distance pace averages. I do this by adding up the pace scores of all the winners at each course and dividing it by the total number of races. The higher the average score, the more ‘biased’ the course and distance is to horses that lead early or race close to the pace.

Here are the 6 furlong handicap C&D pace averages for the six aw courses:


Taking all the data into account, six furlong handicaps on the all weather do offer ‘pace’ punters a potential edge. It is, unsurprisingly perhaps, not as strong as over five furlongs, but still strong enough to give clued in bettors a good leg up on the opposition. All we need now is to find a fail-safe method to predict the front runner...

- Dave Renham

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 12/03/13

Stat of the Day: 12/03/13

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2013

Nothing to report from yesterday, as Rocky Bender was a non-runner. The race itself justified my thoughts that Qalinas was the danger, but that's about as involved as we got!

There is hopefully some racing taking place at Cheltenham today, I may have received the odd email or so alerting me to this, but SotD is going to attempt to fly under the radar a little bit by heading to the West Midlands for some All-Weather action. We're looking at a 13-runner, Class 5 Handicap and the trip is a shade under 6 furlongs for the...

5.50 Wolverhampton

Today's piece is going to be short and hopefully sweet. There's no reams of trainer stats, nor years of back data to wade through: today is all about one horse that seems to have "clicked" at the Dunstall Park track of late.

Hab Reeh, whose trainer Mrs Ruth Carr is pretty well-known to Geegeez readers, is today's selection. This horse has really enjoyed running here at Wolverhampton of late and today will be the 7th outing here in 2013 for this 5-year-old grey. His form here since the turn of the year makes for impressive reading at 162113. He has notched up three wins already this year and was very unlucky when finishing second in mid-January. His third place finish last time out off today's mark was by no means a poor show either. I don't think he was kept quite enough to the action that day, but managed another place finish.

His 50% strike rate here this year has generated decent profits of 3pts or 50% of stakes, whilst E/W backers have reaped the rewards too. Five E/W successes from six has given a slightly better rate of return ie 57.33% (6.88pts to be precise!)

It should be pointed out, however, that he has been ridden by apprentice/amateur jockeys during this recent run, yet today the more experienced Amy Ryan is on board. Without casting any aspersions towards the ability of Hab Reeh's previous jockeys, it is hoped that Amy's wealth of experience might just get a little more out of our selection today, as he looks to build on that creditable 3rd place off today's mark.

And that's pretty much that for today. He's in form, he likes the track and acts on it well and we're hoping the change of jockey might just squeeze a little more out of him.

There seems to be enough in the market for a safety-first approach and his placing record suggests this is the way forward too. So, the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Hab Reeh at 7/1 BOG with Stan James, but for your preferred bookie...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.50 Wolverhampton

Sat TV Trends: 9th Mar 2013


Imperial Cup Day At Sandown

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Trainer Stats: 5th March 2013


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N Richards

Look Out For Nicky Richards Runners

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Stat of the Day, 25th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 25/02/13

Stat of the Day: 25/02/13

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2013

If ever there was a metaphorical slap in the face, we got one yesterday. The only thing Earcomesthedream possibly did wrong was that he set off for home a little too early. He attempted to cling on gamely as a pack of four hunted him down. As they came over the last, he really could still have finished anywhere in the first five. Unfortunately for us, he didn't have enough in the tank to hold on and we didn't even get an E/W payout as he was finally placed 4th.

It's back to A/W action today and a trip to Dunstall Park for their opener. This is now an 11-runner (one N/R this morning), Class 5 handicap over a shade (20yds) further than five furlongs for the...

2.30 Wolverhampton

Since teaming up for the first time just under 10 months ago (with a 7/1 winner at Haydock), the trainer/jockey partnership of Paul Green and Joe Fanning has not only proved successful in terms of wins and places, but also from a financial aspect.

Six winners and four other places from twenty runners in ten months is excellent form indeed. The 30% strike rate has produced an amazing 35.5pts (+177.5% POI) profit, whilst a place ratio of 1 in 2 has seen E/W backers rewarded to the tune of 50pts (+125%).

They arrive here today for just one combined ride seeking a third win on the bounce and all with the same horse: M J Woodward.

M J Woodward has a career record of seven wins at 5f to 6f, including six wins on A/W tracks (1411 here since dropping down from 7f to today's 5f). He has made massive progress this winter and is a plucky battling sort who always seems to find just enough. He completed a hat trick at Southwell (6f) last time out when taking his recent run of form to 5 wins from 7 and I fully expect him to be on the premises again today.

He is actually up 4 lbs for that last win, but despite this he hasn't been overhandicapped this season, because he never seems to win by much (usually by half a length or less!): just seeming to know what's required and doing just enough.

The rise in the weights allied to his propensity to do just enough might well cause some concerns, but we're going to get him at a longer price than usual, and considering that BetVictor are showing him at 6/1 BOG this morning (10.30am), the sensible (if a little conservative) option is to take a 0.5pts E/W bet on M J Woodward at those prices, but you can (and should!) always...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Wolverhampton

The full racecard for today's race is right here, too.

Trainer Stats: 13th Feb 2013


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Stat of the Day, 11th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 11/02/13

Stat of the Day: 11/02/13

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2013

I thought Flying Pickets gave a really good account of himself yesterday, despite seemingly being given far too much work to do late on. He was held back too far from the pace for my liking and encountered plenty of traffic when trying to weve his way home. He had to be switched twice and this won't have helped in trying to overcome quite a large deficit in the closing stages. He ran well when asked for an effort and stayed on to the line, but it was yet another second placed finish, I'm afraid. A little light relief for the traders, as our 5/1 shot was sent off at 3/1.

Plumpton's off today, so we're left with two meetings to choose from. And the safer option today would appear to be to avoid the Yorkshire mud at Catterick and head for the Dunstall Park Polytrack once again for a 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap, where the trip is a shade under nine and a half furlongs for the...

4.30 Wolverhampton

Willie Musson's recent record at Wolverhampton has caught my eye this morning. I was just looking over the results from the last year or so and I noticed that since the turn of 2012, he has had nine winners from just 37 runners here at Wolverhampton. That's a very satisfactory return of just over 24.3% and one to attract most people's attentions. If you add in the fact that further seven runners have made the frame, giving a place strike rate of 43.2%.

Quite often, trainers with such good record pay for it in terms of the P/L figures, as 25% winning ratios generally contain plenty of short-priced jollies. This isn't the case here, as the nine winners have produced almost 25pts clear profit at SP (+64.9% POI) and each way backers have benefited from a similar return (24.21pts). A nice bit of gravy, as some would say!

Willie's got just the one runner today and he's a very interesting sort, whilst being a bit of a punt.

The horse is Mountain Range and he makes his debut for Mr Musson today. He was previously trained by John Dunlop and after a decent enough season as a three-year old, seemed to lose his way a little last year and didn't actually win a race in 2012 with a record of 6736780. But after that 10th place finish (12 ran!) in December 2012, he was sold out of John Dunlop's yard for 11,000 Guineas and he's the type of horse that Willie Musson is so adept at getting the best out of.

He has already won twice off higher marks than today (3 career wins to date at 68, 75 and 82: runs off 74 today) as a 3yr old  and is very well handicapped if Mr Musson can get him back to anything like that sort of form; but it does remain to be seen if he'll "get" the Wolverhampton track, his four previous A/W outings have been at Lingfield and Kempton. His three career wins have been at trips ranging from 1m to 1m 2f including a win on polytrack at Kempton, just over a year ago off a mark some 8lbs higher than today.

He is the type that Willie Musson does well with and if a return to his previous form can be found, he looks very well treated at the weights. There are, fo course, several ifs and buts surrounding today's selection, but this is reflected within the price. I've just taken 23.0 for him to win on Betfair and 5.4 for a place, but as I guarantee you'll get the same prices, the official line is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Mountain Range at 16/1 BOG with Stan James (price correct as of 10.30 am and also available at Hills), but please do...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Wolverhampton

Trainer Stats: 5th Feb 2013

Ron Harris

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Stat of the Day, 29th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 29/01/13

Stat of the Day: 29/01/13

Stat of the Day, 29th January 2013

It was abject from Abraq yesterday as he trailed home last of six and we'll hope for better today. Yet again, however, we're faced with just two meetings: both on the A/W and one of those is a jumpers bumper meeting (at Lingfield). It's therefore pretty much Hobson's Choice, as we look (yet again!) at what Wolverhampton has to offer us on a fairly uninspiring looking day.

I've gone for one in a trappy 13-runner, Class 6 handicap over 1m 141yds, the...

4.30 Wolverhampton

Robin Bastiman isn't one of the more familiar trainers at Dunstall Park, having only saddled twelve runners at this venue over the last 11 months or so, but the results achieved from this small number of runners is excellent. A string of results such as 113835641313, have resulted in a strike rate of 33.33% and 66.67% of the runners have made the frame.

Seeing as Robin doesn't send that many here, it's no surprise that he has just the one runner today and that horse is responsible for the last two victories in that sequence: both over today's trip too.

Mr. Bastiman's Kyllachykov is therefore seeking a C&D hat-trick within three weeks and despite an obvious rise in the weights, must stand a decent chance today. This horse had little/no form on the turf, but has been revitalised by being sent out to the Wolverhampton polytrack where he now stands at 2/2, having secured victories at 6/1 and 11/4. Today's contest will be a bit tougher than both of those previous outings and hopefully, we can find some value in the market.

A further positive today is the re-booking of Daniel Tudhope to take the ride. Danny was on board last time out and judged the race perfectly having kept in touch throughout and hitting the front at just the right time. Kyllachykov looked to have something left in reserve that day, so the extra weight might not be too much of a burden. Daniel is generally in decent form at present anyway, boasting a 29% strike rate in the last month (7/24) and he has managed to get his mounts into the frame on no less than seven occasions from eleven in the last fortnight.

As I intimated earlier, we won't have it all our own way today, but should the jockey tackle the ride the same way as last time out and provided the horse performs to a similar level, we should very well be there or thereabouts. There's enough scope in the price to hedge our bets and my play today is 0.5pts E/W bet on Kyllachykov at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor, but as always, you can...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Wolverhampton

Trainer Stats: 23rd Jan 2013

David Simcock

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Stat of the Day, 21st January 2013

SotD : 21/01/13

SotD : 21/01/13

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2013

Apologies all round for the late arrival of SotD today: unforeseen circumstances etc etc.

And it's Hobson's Choice on what looks like a day for favourite backers at Dunstall Park. Our race is a seven runner Class 5 handicap over 1m 6f aka the...

3.05 Wolverhampton

Trainer David Barron hasn't sent many runners of late, but the three he has run so far this year have all appeared here at Wolverhampton, resulting in two winners and a third place finish, so the yard is in decent nick, albeit off a small sample size.

In fact David's runners are 3 wins and a place from 6 runs here in the last three months with one of those wins coming over Course & Distance from today's selection Sohcahtoa.

Sohcahtoa reappeared here on 4th January after a 3 month break and looked as fresh and as good as ever when landing the C&D victory. Hie is unexposed on this surface, that being his only race at this track in his career to date. There should be some decent early pace in this contest today and that should suit him.

He looked full of running towards the end of that last outing and despite a 3lb rise in the weights, a repeat of that effort should be enough to see him home again today, as he did seem to have quite a bit left in reserve. Luke McNiff (5lb claimer) judged the ride perfectly that day and he's back on board again today.

At the moment (1210) he's the 3/1 jt favourite, but don't let that put you off. I actually marked him up at 11/4 and I think he'll probably go off even shorter than that, so there's still some value in taking the 3/1 as I'll be doing. It'll be BOG, of course and I'm using bet365 today, but other are matching this price at present, so why not...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.05 Wolverhampton

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 15/01/13

Stat of the Day: 15/01/13

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2013

No play yesterday as Club House was declared a non-runner. This horse seems interesting, so I'll be looking for him next time out. A tricky day today with very heavy ground at both the NH meetings (Ffos Las & Lingfield). I had an E/W bet in mind on Rosoff in the 2.00 Lingfield, but doubts over the quality of the track (still covered as I wrote this!) have sent me scurrying back to the All-Weather again!

There is, of course an A/W Junior Bumper at Lingfield, but Dunstall Park is the main focus of any All-Weather action today, so that's where we're going. Our race is a twelve-runner, Class 5 Maiden over a mile and a half, the...

3.25 Wolverhampton

A Class 5 Maiden on a Tuesday afternoon on the Wolverhampton polytrack won't be everyone's first choice as a betting medium, but I believe we've an angle that could well prove profitable, as Jeremy Noseda's record in maiden events here has been exceptional in recent years.

In fact, in the last five years, Jeremy has sent 38 horses out to compete in these maiden events at the Dunstall Park track and sixteen of them have returned as winners with a further ten runners making the frame. His win strike rate of  42.1% has generated 24pts profit at level stakes (=89.5% POI), whilst E/W backers have enjoyed a profitable return of 29.6pts, courtesy of the 68.4% place strike rate. This place strike rate, whilst impressive over a five-year period has actually improved to a staggering 76.2% in the last two years, whilst Jeremy has maintained his 42% win ratio.

No prizes for guessing that Mr Noseda has just one runner today, in the form of Shirazz.

Shirazz is an interesting newcomer and makes her belated debut at the age of four. Whilst her dam wasn't rated as anything special, her breeding tends to suggest that this middle distance type of trip will be her forté. She's a half-sister to the 5yr old Peachez who has scored 3 wins and 4 places from 8 races at today's trip and also won twice (plus a place) here at Wolverhampton, so our selection is expected to take to the surface quite readily.

Apprentice Amy Scott (5lb claimer) takes the ride today and she has also ridden Peachez to good effect in the past (3 wins and 6 further places from 13).

All this is, of course, pure conjecture, as nobody really knows which way this one will go on debut, but the breeding ( also related to several USA winners) and the trainers' stats tend to suggest we'll at least get a decent run for our money and that an E/W bet wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to suggest.

At 10.15am, the markets were showing her at anything between 7/1 BOG and 12/1 (non-BOG). So, my play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Shirazz at 11/1 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...


Click here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Wolverhampton


Trainer Stats: 15th Jan 2013


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Stat of the Day, 13th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 13/01/13

Stat of the Day: 13/01/13

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2013

I don't seem to be getting much joy at present. George Nympton (like many of my recent picks) seemed to be travelling really well to a point. He was well placed tracking the leaders before a bad mistake on landing after the seventh fence. In all honesty, you have to take your hat off to Noel Fehily for managing to even stay on board, never mind getting the horse home. The race was gone in an instant and although Noel managed to get his mount travelling again, he was never going to even get close.

We're going to make the short journey back to Dunstall Park today for another of those Class 6 Handicaps over a mile and a half (plus 50yds!), as twelve are set to contest the ...

4.00 Wolverhampton

I gave some serious consideration to backing Royal Holiday at 7/1 in the 2.00 race, because the horse is in good form and the jockey Daniel Tudhope is 4/8 at Wolverhampton this season, but I've decided to go with a multiple course and distance winner who is also going really well at present.

It's another of those old warriors for SotD today, in the form of Kames Park, an eleven year old seemingly enjoying a new lease of life, despite having well over 100 races under his belt.

Kames Park beat both Daring Damsel and Layla's Boy (who re-oppose today) over course and distance nine days ago and he was a narrow second at long odds in a much better race here on Friday, also over course and distance. That race was a Class 3 contest and he drops back to Class 6 today, after going down by just a neck at 25/1, yet was still finishing strongly, despite running from 6lbs out of the handicap on that occasion. He turns out again today on his proper mark, which is just 4lbs higher than his previous victory over C & D, which incidentally was his 5th win at Wolverhampton (4 over today's trip)

Jimmy Quinn takes the ride again on Kames Park today, as he has done on those last two outings and this will be the thirteenth time they've been partnered together, having achieved 4 wins and 4 further places from the previous 12 outings. Backing this partnership has been profitable to the tune of some 35pts to date with the 58.3% place strike rate being of benefit to E/W backers who have made just shy of 50pts from those 12 races.

Any repeat of his form from the last couple of outings should be enough to take this one and I fully expect another bold run from him. There's possibly enough in the price for a safety-first E/W bet, but fortune favours the brave, so they say and I think we'll be rewarded for our faith by taking a 1pt win bet on Kames Park at 6/1 BOG with Bet365. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Wolverhampton