It was a successful afternoon at Wolverhampton for The Horse Watchers syndicate, capped by Royal Zabeel’s triumph in the BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes.
Trained by Michael Appleby and ridden by Alistair Rawlinson, the bay was an 11-2 chance after an impressive campaign on the all-weather so far this winter.
He was well positioned throughout under his rider, kept handy in the early stages of the seven-furlong trip and then ridden to challenge around the turn for home.
The gelding took up the lead in the straight and would not be passed, staying ahead of the fast-finishing Witch Hunter to prevail by three-quarters of a length on the line.
“We’re really pleased with that, he’s done it well and we’ve always thought he’s a decent horse,” said Appleby.
“This has been the target for him for the winter and it’s good that it’s worked out and he’s gone and won it.
“He’s not done much wrong and he’s been progressing well all the while.
“We’ll switch to turf now and it will be interesting to see what he can do on grass.”
The Horse Watchers had already been successful at the meeting when Symbol Of Light won the first race, the BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap.
The six-year-old is trained by Julie Camacho and was ridden by Jason Watson as a 7-1 shot for the contest.
From a wide draw, the gelding was driven out on the line to score by a short head from Farasi Lane.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/274519511-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-03-08 17:19:522025-03-08 17:19:52Royal Zabeel lands Lady Wulfruna prize
It has been a while since I looked at all-weather draw biases so with plenty more racing on those surfaces to come this winter it seemed a good time to revisit the stats, writes Dave Renham.
Introduction
When I think about draw biases in turf racing, they tend to be far less predictable or consistent than draw biases on the all-weather (AW). There are a few reasons why this tends to be the case:
1. Some turf courses are increasing the number of meetings and they move rails to alter where the horses run. This can nullify or even change a draw bias.
2. The positioning of the stalls can change at some courses altering the track location that the horses are running from each draw. For example, on a straight track a horse could be drawn 1 when the stalls are positioned far side and be next to the far rail, but if the stalls on are the stands’ side the horse drawn 1 could be out in the middle of the course. Hence, if we hypothetically assume that the ground next to the far rail is quicker than the ground down the centre, then a horse drawn 1 could have a big advantage if the stalls are placed far side. Conversely if the stalls are stands' side, then the horse drawn 1 does not have this advantage. Moreover, running against a rail is generally more of an advantage than running in the middle of the track.
3. Turf courses use watering which potentially can change the going on certain parts of a track: that may then have an impact on any bias.
As far as the AW is concerned, these three reasons are not much of an issue. At AW courses the rails are fixed so moving them is not an option, and the position of the stalls doesn’t change either. Also, the going tends to be very similar on all-weather – the surface they race on is clearly the same each time, and whether it rides ‘standard’ or slower than ‘standard’ depends on the specific course surface, any additional harrowing undertaken and possibly the weather conditions.
The table below shows the percentage of races at each course in the past three years that has ridden either ‘standard’ or ‘standard to slow’. Those are the only two going descriptions we have had since the start of 2022.
As can be seen most of the courses primarily race on ‘standard’ going. At Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton they rarely race on slower going. Kempton has raced on ‘standard to slow’ at every meeting over the past three years (indeed every meeting since 11th July 2018 - when does that become the new 'standard'? - Ed.), while Southwell sees slower ground about one meeting in five.
Newcastle is the course where there is the most even split with just under two-thirds of meetings having raced on ‘standard’, the other third on ‘standard to slow’. It should be noted that between the months of June and September around 60% of the Newcastle meetings have been on ‘standard to slow’, so one could logically surmise that either drier or warmer weather has the most impact in terms of the going there. All the course data points to the fact that how an AW course rides is rarely affected by significant changes in going.
In addition to all of the above, four of the six UK AW tracks see all races run around a bend. This can help in terms of consistency when it comes to the draw. Running around a bend means horses running closest to the rail having to run a shorter distance, thus on round courses lower draws tend to have an edge because they are drawn closer to the inside.
This introduction has made the hypothetical case for more consistent draw bias on the artifical surfaces, so let us see if this has actually been the case. The draw data I have collated goes back to the start of 2017 with the focus on 8+ runner handicaps, which are the best races to analyse when it comes to the draw. I will be looking at four course/distance combinations in detail, arguably the four strongest AW draw biases, starting with the minimum trip at Chelmsford.
Chelmsford 5f
The 5f distance at Chelmsford should favour lower draws because the bend they run starts little more than a furlong into the race and then sweeps round for two further furlongs until they turn into the straight. The racecourse map is shown below:
Let us look at the draw splits for the whole-time frame in terms of win percentages within each third of the draw:
As expected, lower draws have an edge over middle drawn runners, who in turn enjoy an advantage over high draw runners. If there was no bias all these figures should be close to the 33.3% mark. The lower the draw the better with horses drawn 1 winning 31 races (18.3% of all races), horses drawn 2 winning 24 (14.2%). Combined, the two lowest draws have won 55 races, compared with the two highest drawn horses in each race who have collectively won 22 between them.
This suggests that horses drawn in the lowest two stalls are 2.5 times more likely to win than those drawn in the highest two stalls. This disparity increases when the number of runners increases, peaking at 4.3 times more likely when the field size is 11 or 12. It should also be noted that horses drawn 1 have made a profit to SP and BSP, as have those drawn 2. The profits are very small to SP, but with 169 runs for each stall position this suggests there is some value backing these two draws.
In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) there is positive correlation with the win data with low on 0.54, middle 0.52 and high down at 0.45.
If we now look at the record of the lowest third of the draw by individual year we might expect to see big fluctuations, due mainly to small sample sizes and standard variances. To counter that, I have grouped the annual data in a slightly different way using a method I first saw in Nick Mordin’s excellent book, Winning Without Thinking. He looked at data in batches / groups of years, which is a good way to compare things more effectively due to more reliable sample sizes. You can also see patterns changing more easily – if indeed they do change. He used five-year batches; I’m going to look at four-year batches. Below is a graph comparing the win percentage for the lowest third of the draw using the batch/group method:
The bias has remained fairly consistent with all four-year batches showing 40%+ figures. The graph suggests that there may be a slight strengthening of the bias over the last eight years but, regardless of whether that is true, it is clear I hope that this bias is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Before moving on, there seems to be a draw bias ‘cut off point’ at stall 7. Specifically, horses drawn 7 or lower have won 144 races from 1183 runners (SR 12.2%). Those drawn 8 or higher have won 25 races from 424 runners (SR 5.9%). In addition, over this track and trip, horses drawn 11 or 12 (the maximum field size is 12) are 1 win from 50 (SR 2%).
My betting strategy as regards the draw over 5f at Chelmsford is to primarily focus on horses drawn 1 and 2, but I am prepared to look at horses drawn as high as 7. Those drawn 8 or higher will get a line through them unless they have several strong factors to bring to the table.
Chelmsford 6f
Remaining at Chelmsford we move up a furlong to six. With the bend being an additional furlong away from the start, one would expect that the low draw bias might be less potent than it is over 5f. Let’s look at the win percentages by third of draw first:
As expected the edge for low draws is less strong and, also, high draws have fared much better at this trip in terms of wins compared with 5f. However, in Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) terms the figures are more akin to the 5f cohort, especially looking at the low third and the high third. The PRB for low draws stands at 0.55 (0.54 over 5f), middle lies on 0.49 (0.52 over 5f) and high at 0.46 (0.45 over 5f). These figures suggest low’s advantage over high is similar to that of the minimum distance. The win & placed figures are also very similar when comparing the draw thirds over the two distances. Essentially, I would say that from a win perspective, the bias is less strong over six furlongs while in terms of getting placed it is similar.
It should also be noted that the maximum field size over 6f is 14, two more than over five furlongs. It is rare that 13 or 14 runners come to post here but, for the record, no horse drawn 13 or 14 won in the eight-year period from 38 runners to try.
Looking through the value lens, however, using A/E indices, higher draws have scored best. Their figure of 0.92 is well above the low figure of 0.81 and middle one of 0.82. Perhaps bookmakers and punters perceive the bias to be stronger than it is at this distance.
My betting strategy as regards the draw over 6f at Chelmsford is to only rule out horses drawn 13 or 14. Hence for most races that means I would not be put off by any draw position. Indeed, as the A/E indices showed there is probably value looking higher than lower. [In fact, run style is arguably much more material at this course and distance - see this article (from late 2021), partially replicated below.
Kempton 6f
Traditionally this range at Kempton has produced the strongest and most consistent draw bias on the AW. For years low draws have held sway. There is a similarly strong bias over 5f, but qualifying races are rare with only three in the past three years (that trio were won by horses drawn 1, 1 and 2). Let us look at the win percentage splits for each third of the draw going back to 2017:
Low draws have won 46.5% of all races which is the biggest percentage for any all-weather course and distance combination using the 8+ runner handicaps condition. Additionally, the number of races during this time frame was 400 so a strong sample size. Backing horses drawn 3 or 4 would have yielded a profit to BSP of 10p in the £. In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) these figure correlate positively showing that clear edge to lower drawn runners:
The low to high comparison of 0.57 to 0.42 further illustrates the strength of this bias. From a punting perspective low draws offer the best value as well, with an A/E index of 0.93 compared with 0.88 for middle draws and a lowly 0.68 for high.
Earlier I discussed a Nick Mordin idea of grouping data in yearly batches to give more accurate comparisons over different time frames / years. As I did with Chelmsford over 5f earlier, here are the four-year win percentages over 6f at Kempton for the lowest third of the draw using this grouping method:
As can be seen this bias has remained consistently strong over the whole of the eight-year time frame. I also used this idea for the PRBs, across all three sections of the draw, and we see excellent consistency once more.
Before moving on, it should be noted once more that the low draw bias increases as field size increases. The maximum field size is 12 and looking solely at races contested by 11 or 12 runners, the lowest third of the draw won more than half (52.2%) of the races with a PRB of 0.59; the highest third won just a sixth of the time with a PRB of 0.41.
Wolverhampton 5f
The fourth and final course/distance combination takes us to Wolverhampton and their minimum trip. Let's start with a look at the draw splits based on win percentage by third of the draw:
The implication is again of a decent low draw bias, with a repeat of the pattern seen above in terms of the lower the better. The PRB figures correlate positively with the win percentage splits as the graph below illustrates:
All things considered one would much rather be drawn low than high.
Let us now compare 2017-2020 with 2021-2024 rather than the 4-yearly groupings I used earlier. I am doing this for two reasons: one, to mix the article up a bit; and two, to clearly highlight the more recent struggles of higher draws. This would have been shown using the earlier Mordin method, too, just so readers know I’m not moving the goalposts in any way:
The chart illustrates how higher draws have diminished nearly 8% in terms of win success across the two four-yearly time frames. This is quite a steep decline but it is not easy to understand why. One reason may be because the average price of the highest three drawn runners has been slightly higher in the 2021-2024 period compared with 2017-2020. However, the average price difference is negligible really and it could be a 'self-fulfilling prophecy' due to this bias being subsumed in the market, so perhaps something else is going on. Maybe it is down to statistical variance? It is impossible to say.
My final graph this week shows the win success rate of each individual stall / draw position at Wolverhampton over 5f.
This presents a clear indication that stall 4 is probably the cut-off point for top bias. In fact, if you had backed stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 blind over the eight-year review period you would have ended up with a profit to BSP of £102.79 to £1 level stakes. This equates to a 7p in the £ return.
Summary
To conclude, the draw biases shown have been highly consistent especially in terms of the strongest stall positions which, in each case, has been the lowest drawn third.
Wolverhampton 5f has been less consistent with its high draw data, but overall, the draw biases at these four track/range combos have virtually remained the same throughout the eight-year period. In addition, there is no reason to suggest this might change any time soon (although markets are likely to eventually further cotton on and adjust prices accordingly).
Finally, and the most important thing from a punter’s perspective, low draws continue to offer the best value at each of Chelmsford 5f, Kempton 6f and Wolverhampton 5f, while fielding against the bias with higher draws over 6f at Chelmsford - especially with runners capable of a forward run style - looks the way to go.
A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.
Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.
Introduction
Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable.
The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.
The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:
Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.
Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.
Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.
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Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases
It is time to start the countdown:
10. Kempton 7f
Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.
Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:
An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.
9. Lingfield 6f
Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:
Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.
At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.
8. Chelmsford 1m
This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs):
As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.
7. Kempton 6f
Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.
Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.
6. Chelmsford 6f
The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.
Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.
5. Wolverhampton 5f
The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:
This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:
Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.
In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.
4. Chelmsford 7f
The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:
Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.
It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:
Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:
Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:
The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.
3. Southwell 5f
This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:
A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:
The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.
It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!
2. Chelmsford 5f
The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.
In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.
1. Lingfield 5f
Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:
If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.
Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:
Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.
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Conclusion
The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.
Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.
As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.
For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.
Until next time...
- DR
Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez
In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.
And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.
- Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/David_Marco.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-12-04 09:16:202024-12-04 09:16:20Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
And with Wolverhampton having the biggest pot, let's take in their first six races on standard tapeta, starting with...
Leg 1 @ 4.35, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ apprentice handicap over 1m½f...
Billy McGarry has won three of his last seven and only missed out on completing a hat-trick by less than a length over this course and distance last time out. Cerulean Summer has made the frame in four of her last five and comes here after winning by two lengths over 1m1½f on this track ten days ago. Harbour Vision was headed close over over C&D five days ago, he goes well here at Wolverhampton and will be dangerous of an unchanged mark. Cobh Harbour is still a maiden after 12 starts, but has finished 434533 in his last six, so should be involve again today, whilst bottom-weight and 10-race maiden Just Typical produced his best effort to date when second of ten at Southwell 16 days ago.
Instant Expert's 2yr A/W stats show most of those named above in a good light, plus opens the door for Hellavapace, even if her very recent form is quite poor...
Leaders & prominent runners fare best in this type of race here, but only three runners have an average pace score of 2.50 or higher from their last four runs...
So, I'm definitely taking (4) Harbour Vision today and from Billy McGarry, Cerulean Summer, Cobh Harbour and Sir Titan, I'm going to side with (1) Billy McGarry and (2) Cerulean Summer
Leg 2 @ 5.10, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...
Front-running My Genghis comes here seeking a hat-trick after a one length win here over 6f was followed by a comfortable 5.5 length success over 5½f at Brighton a week ago. Suanni has a win and a place from his last four and Colors Of Freedom was third at Chelmsford 12 days ago, having won here over course and distance on her penultimate run.
My Kind Of Girl has yet to win after 16 attempts, but has made the frame on four of her last six, finishing as runner-up three times. Banana is somewhat unbelievably still a maiden after 35 races, but has been placed 335373 in her last six, Rockley Point was third twice in a row before finishing last of 12 at Newcastle two days ago and Hi Ho Tonto was second of twelve at Southwell earlier this month.
Instant Expert suggests that My Genghis is the one to beat here, but that plenty of others have it in their locker to get involved...
.Lower drawn runners fare well over this course/distance, which is good news for the likes of Banana, Colors Of Freedom and Hi Ho Tonto, whilst early pace is always beneficial over 5f here...
...so that's (1) My Genghis and (5) Colors Of Freedom on my ticket. (4) Suanni also ticks plenty of boxes and will be up front early, so I'll take him at the expense of Hi Ho Tonto and hope I don't regret it.
Leg 3 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m1½f...
Hillbridge has been third in three of her last four, Izipizi was a good second of eleven at Newbury in a Class 2 race two starts ago, but Magic Dream was last of six in that grade when last seen some 174 days ago, although she was second of fourteen beaten by just a head on debut at Newbury on April. Morrophore was third on debut but has been rested for 106 days after only finishing sixth at Yarmouth on her second outing and Nowhere has made the frame in three of her four starts to date and with all four coming on the A/W she's the most experienced away from turf.
The pace is ikley to come from Izipizi and Hillbridge, although Nowhere and magic Dream did both race prominently last out...
..whilst the lowest drawn runners are Morrophore, Prevasil and Nowhere.
As ever, in these novice events, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but what little I do have steers me towards (3) Hillbridge and (4) Izipizi. I was surprised to see (7) Nowhere out as long as 16/1 and bigger, as she might fare better than that here.
Leg 4 @ 6.15, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...
A decent-sized field, but my initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the top end of the card with 10yo veteran Muscika and the sole filly in the race, Crimson Angel the ones to beat.
The former isn't the horse he was (obviously), but drops in class here after some decent efforts this summer. He was a runner-up beaten by just a length in a 21-runner field at York before just going down by a nose at Epsom in mid-August. he wasn't quite at it last time lout, but a drop in class against a modest-looking field and he should be on the premises again, as should Crimson Angel.
This 4yr old filly has dropped in the weights to a dangerous mark and having not been beaten by far in her last two outings, could well be ready to break her cold spell. Elsewhere Lihou won three starts ago and Musical Touch has been third twice in his last three. Honour Your Dreams and Aces Wild both have a win and two places from their last five and bottom weight Phoenix Beach's last five read 33232.
The pace is likely to come from four of those mentioned above, so that's another tick for them...
...whilst the pick of the Instant Expert stats look like this...
...so (2) Muscika is a definite pick here. I'm inclined to stick with my gut feeling about (4) Crimson Angel despite her lack of early pace and in what is a difficult decision between the other three runners on that pace graphic, I'll take the consistent placer (11) Phoenix Beach over Honour Your Dreams and Lihou.
Leg 5 @ 6.45, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...
Diamond Ranger is in good nick finishing 2143 in his last four. Lartigue has made the frame in all three starts but hasn't raced for nine months, Gifted Angel comes here seeking a hat-trick and won over course and distance two starts ago. Speriamo is 122 from her last three, Crown of India has been third in five of his last six in 9-11 runner races. Oosterpark won three races ago, Cock And Bull looks in the grip of the assessor finishing 7th of 12 and 4th of 7 after a run reading 21221123 and Dashinwhitesargent has won two of his last four.
So, plenty of this field come here in decent form, but of them Diamond Ranger, Lartigue, Gifted Angel and Dashinwhiteangel seem most suited to the prevalent conditions...
and I'm just going to omit Lartigue from that quartet, as he'll probably ned a ruin after a nine-month break, leaving me with (1) Diamond Ranger, (3) Gifted Angel & (11) Dashinwhitesargent.
Leg 6 @ 7.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m1½f...
Red Treasure has made the frame in her last two starts, Renesmee's last three read 221 having beaten the re-opposing Lia Rose by half a length here over course and distance 19 days ago, but the runner-up is 1lb better off here, so they're closely matched. Lia Rose herself has finished 237232 in her last six, so she's going well, as is Shahnaz with two wins and a place from her last four. Idyllic won three starts ago and her form reads 233174, Darysina Gold's reads 221245 and Bay Dream Believer has finished 11324 in her last five, so this looks a wide-open if not high-class affair.
Of those mentioned above, Red Treasure, Renesmee, Lia Rose and Darysina Gold all step up a class here. We know Renesmme won over course and distance last time out, Kaaress has also won over this track/trip, but as a hold-up horse might struggle today.
None of this field have a particularly great record at Class 5, but that aside, my Instant Expert shortlist only has four runners on it...
All four were mentioned in my preview and if I'm honest, I'm not sure which to omit, so the easy option is to take all four in the hope we've still not tickets in play after 7pm!
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Billy McGarry, (2) Cerulean Summer & (4) Harbour Vision
Leg 2: (1) My Genghis, (4) Suanni & (5) Colors Of Freedom
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
It's an absolutely huge pot on offer at Ascot, but there other writers on Geegeez to write about Champions' Day whilst I stay in my lane with my bread and butter at tracks like Wolverhampton, where the tapeta is unsurprisingly standard for our six races that kick off with...
Leg 1 @ 4.27, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...
Simiyann has finished 212 in his last three, won here 12 days ago and was only beaten by half a length two days ago. Grand Duchess Olga also has a win and two places from her last three (133), whilst Daaris has made the first three home in nine of his last eleven without managing to win any.
Trojan Truth has two wins and an LTO runner-up finish from his last five, whilst Baileys Warrior has a win and two runner-up finishes from her last four and it is this group of five who have been the most consistent over the last couple of years...
We're not going to get much help from the draw over such a long trip and most of this field have pretty similar pace profiles, so we're going to lean on recent form and gut feeling here. Former course winner (1) Simiyann brings the best recent form to the table and (6) Baileys Warrior is the only previous course and distance winner, so I'll take both of those as most likely to go on and win here. Winning isn't something that (3) Daaris does often but he barely runs a bad race and tends to always be involved at the finish, so I'll add him at the expense of Grand Duchess Olga.
Leg 2 @ 5.00, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 1m1½f...
A pretty modest looking field that looks like a two-horse race between Corundum and Show Biz Kid. The former struggled at a higher grade last time out, but no drops back in class to the level that he was only beaten by a length and a half at Southwell on early September, which is probably the best run of any of this group.
Show Biz Kid was also a decent third at Nottingham last time out when just over a length and a half behind Phoenix Passion and a neck behind Drink Dry; this pair have both gone on to win since has has ther horse in sixth place. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't been seen since that run 136 days ago during which time he has been gelded and moved yards.
That said, it's still (1) Corundum and (2) Show Biz Kid here for me and the rest are much of a muchness.
Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...
We'renotreallyhere has a win and three places from his last six, Apache Canyon has been third in each of his last three and gets a 4lbs weight for age allowance. Harbour Vision was a runner-up two starts ago, Jez Bomb also gets that 4lbs allowance and has two wins and three places from his last eight starts, whilst fellow 3yo and eight-race maiden Miss Dandylion has been third four times.
Instant Expert highlights the following on 2yr place form...
...whilst over a course and distance that rewards front-runners, Harbour Vision and We'renotreallyhere might be the ones the others have to chase...
(6) Harbour Vision is a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year off a mark four pounds higher than today, he's running well, has good 2yr figures above and will be upfront here, so I'll take him along with fellow front-runner (4) We'renotreallyhere. (8) Jez Bomb brings the best recent form to the table today and he completes my selections for this one.
Leg 4 @ 6.00, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...
None of these even made the frame last time out, but the 'form' horse must be course and distance winner Monsieur Patat with his three wins and two places in five races before going down by just over a length and a half at Kempton last time out in a race so competitive that the first eight home of the thirteen runners were only a length and three quarters apart and although the race lacks genuine early pace, he's one of those most likely to be at the head of affairs...
...alongside fellow course and distance winner Guiteau. Both of these also caught my eye on Instant Expert...
...as did Twilight Dancer to a lesser degree. She failed to see the mile out at Lingfield five weeks ago fading out of contention in the final 100yds, but was a decent second at the same track over 7f nine days earlier. Back in April, she actually made all to win over 7f at Brighton, where pace is essential, so that early speed is definitely in her locker. She's 6lbs lower than that win today so (4) Twilight Dancer joins (2) Monsieur Patat and (3) Guiteau on my Tix ticket builder.
Leg 5 @ 6.30, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...
Rosenzoo looks a better horse on the A/W than he does on turf where he has been last home of five and last of six on his last two attempts compared with finishes of 122 from his three visits to Wolverhampton, going down by just a head last time out. Warren Hill wasn't seen at this best at Windsor on his last run, but had previously caught the eye when winning there over 1m2f on her penultimate outing. She missed the break, but ran on strongly to win by a length and a quarter with seemingly plenty in the tank.
Handicap debutant Monsieur Fudge is interesting after a couple of solid efforts making the frame at both Newmarket and Salisbury a year apart and a similar run puts him in contention here. I mentioned Drink Dry earlier in this piece after his runner-up finish at Nottingham in June. He then won at Beverley and was a decent third at Sandown last time out. This quartet would be my form shortlist, whilst the pace averages here are headed by three of this group...
I don't think there's a huge advantage to be gleaned from the draw, but the central area (stalls 4 to 7) seem the best place to be...
...which is where Rosenzoo finds himself, whilst my other three possibles are out in 9, 10 & 11 of 11 stalls! (7) Rosenzoo ticks most boxes here for me and I think that the 4yo filly (1) Warren Hill might actually be the best horse in the race irrespective of today's result, so I'm taking those two. It's then a tricky call between the other two, but I'm going to take a punt on the unexposed handicap debutant (4) Monsieur Fudge, who might improve past Drink Dry here.
Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m1½f...
Salamanca Lad has won three times from his last seven outings, making the frame in two of the four defeats and can still go well of an unchanged mark of 78. Visibility won here over course and distance twelve days ago after two narrow defeats in third place at this track but at a furlong shorter. getting beat so close over the shorter trip and needing all of today's distance to get home last time out suggests he might need a bit further, but he's bang in form and loves it here at Wolverhampton.
Elsewhere Rocket Warrior has two wins and two places from his last six, Local Bay has four wins and two places from his last nine, Charlies Choice has five top-three finishes (2 wins) from his last seven and Secret World has made the frame in three of his last four.
Three of the six mentioned above head the pace averages...
...with (4) Salamanca Lad likely to try and nick the race from the off and both he and (3) Rocket Warrior are drawn in that stalls 4 to 7 range I mentioned in the previous race, so I'll take both of these based on form, draw and pace.
My other four shortlisted runners look like this on Instant Expert...
...so there's a case to be made for any of them, but I just feel that (7) Visibility brings the best recent form to the table and he really loves it here at Wolverhampton.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Simiyann, (3) Daaris & (6) Baileys Warrior
Leg 2: (1) Corundum & (2) Show Biz Kid
Leg 3: (4) We'renotreallyhere, (6) Harbour Vision & (8) Jez Bomb
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck and I hope you have a great weekend. No column Monday, I'm afraid, I'm tied up with hospital appointments with my elderly mother-in-law, so I'll see you next Tuesday.
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
The largest pot is at Wolverhampton where the tapeta is said to standard for...
Leg 1 @ 4.25, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...
No LTO winners here, but fast finisher Lets Go Hugo and Phoenix Beach were both runners-up and the latter has finished 332 in his last three starts (all here at Wolverhampton). Blue Force was third last time out and has a win and two places from his last four, as does Aces Wild who drops in class here.
Of those four, only Blue Force has yet to win over 5f here at Wolverhampton, although he did so at Newcastle a month ago. Betweenthesticks and class-dropper Maharajas Express are also former course and distance winners and all six runners named so far show well on Instant Expert...
...with Aces Wild, Let's Go Hugo & Phoenix Beach the eye-catchers from that. This drawn lower have fared better over this track and trip in the past, but as with most 5f races, pace is key. Symbol of Hope is the most likely from-runner today, but of my shortlisted six, the head of the pace ratings looks like this...
...and with pace having with the same top three as Instant Expert, I have to side with (1) Aces Wild, (4) Let's Go Hugo & (5) Phoenix Beach
Leg 2 @ 5.00, an 8-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 5f...
Binadham is the only former winner in the field and is top rated at 91. He won a Class 5 maiden on debut at Yarmouth in June and backed that up with a creditable 6th of 13 in an Ascot Group 2 race in June. Since then, he has been well beaten at both Gr 2 and Listed class and now drops back to Class 3. Bonnies Boy was a runner-up in each of his first three starts (beaten narrowly in races 2 & 3) before finding a Class 2 handicap a little warm for him next/last time out and he also drops in class here.
Colocolo has made the frame twice in his four starts, Veblen Good was a runner-up on debut at Sandown a month ago and Lucid was also an LTO runner-up, beaten at Kempton but hasn't raced for 166 days now. Optimistic and Queenofdestruction have yet to race and the latter is the bottom weight here and was also a £100k purchase at the Breeze-Up.
Colocolo and Bonnies Boy have both led/raced prominently in their last two starts which is a positive over 5f here at Wolverhampton and of those two I prefer (2) Bonnies Boy. There was much to like about (6) Veblen Good's debut and with these stats behind her...
...I'd be inclined to go with debutante (8) Queenofdestruction at the expense of recently-disappointing Binadham.
Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...
Mesaafi has made the frame in four of his last six, Glitterella has been runner-up in two of her last three and handicap debutant Borealis Thunder has been third in two of her three career starts, but the field is short on wins, although Rusheen Boy did go 112 in December/January prior to three modest efforts (506) more recently and he steps up in class here. Ziggy's Queen is down three classes today and Pals Battalion & State of Madness also both drop in class.
The consistent (2) Mesaafi is a fairly easy pick in a fairly open race and I think (6) Pals Battalion might just be the best of the rest. He's also pretty consistent and as ever, his yard/jockey are going well...
As for the rest, you can make a case for and against all of them, but I think that dropping three classes here might just tip things towards (3) Ziggys Queen.
Leg 4 @ 6.00, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Vaunted won at Bath last time out and drops three classes here. She's noted as a fast finisher and has finished 231U31 in her last six outings. Sonmarg doesn't win often but has been the runner-up in four of her last seven and also finished third in one of them, so he's a consitent placer.
Em Jay Kay won three starts ago, Novak and Snooze Lane both finished third last time out, whilst Buttercross Flyer and A Pint of Bear were runners-up over course and distance, the latter by just a short head.
(2) Sonmarg has got the low draw that seems favoured here and Instant Expert highlights his consistency...
...so I'll be adding him to my Tix ticket builder along with (5) Novak on that evidence above. Elsewhere, I like that recent near-miss by (12) A Pint of Bear over this track/trip, but also the recent form of (10) Vaunted. The latter represents more of a gamble, as she has very little A/W experience and all her best work has been at 5f/5½f, so she misses out here and I Hope it's not a decision that comes back to bite me.
Leg 5 @ 6.30, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f...
My initial thoughts here were that this could well be a two-horse race between the six year old mares Baileys Warrior and Addosh with the other six runners scrapping for the £699 third prize
Addosh proved her stamina in a runner-up finish over 2m1f in a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot last month when only beaten by a neck, whilst Baileys Warrior won over this track and trip three weeks ago for a second win in her last twelve outings. That doesn't sound prolific, but in the ten races she failed to win, she was a runner-up five times and finished third once, so she has made the frame in 66.6% of her last dozen races.
This level of consistency is highlighted by Instant Expert, which also suggests that Easy Equation might be the best of the rest...
The truth is that I can't see both (1) Addosh and (2) Baileys Warrior failing to make the frame, so I won't add a third pick, but I might well have a cheeky E/W punt on Easy Equation who looks quite long to me at a generally available 25/1. After all, this approach worked well for me on Saturday with 40/1 shot Bowman.
Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...
We end with another very open-looking race bereft of recent winners, although Rubellite and Kenstone come here after being runners-up last time out and despite being 11 yrs old, the latter is still running pretty well at this level, making the frame in six of eleven starts over the last year.
Fitz Perfectly was third last time out and Olympic Quest is a former course and distance winner. She has struggled of late with three heavy defeats at Bath in her last four starts, but was only beaten by 2 lengths over today's track and trip three starts ago and might relish a return to the Tapeta, having won here six back in January off 2lbs higher than today.
Over the last two years, Van Zant, Port Noir, Forever Proud, Rubellite and Kenstone set the standard on the A/W, although Port Noir's number are marred by a series of unplaced efforts over shorter trips here at Wolverhampton...
...and with (3) Van Zant also a confirmed front-runner...
...he has to go on my tickets. The manner of (8) Rubellite's runner-up finish at Newcastle suggests that she could go well here too. He won here over 1m1½f at the turn of the year and looks like coming back into form after a recent switch to a more prominent running style. Forever Proud is the likely favourite here today, but she lacks consistency and the results say she has only really run well over 1m2f at Lingfield. This is a shorter trip on a different surface, so I think I'll stick with the consistent old-timer (9) Kenstone for this one.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Aces Wild, (4) Let's Go Hugo & (5) Phoenix Beach
Leg 2: (2) Bonnies Boy, (6) Veblen Good & (8) Queenofdestruction
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
So let's head for Wolverhampton for a crack at six races on standard tapeta...
Leg 1 : 4.15 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 5f...
Startling was a revelation in a first time hood last time out, winning here over course and distance nine days ago and needless to say the hood is in place once again. Deal Maker is the only other runner in the field to have won a race, as she scored over 5f at Southwell on debut. Pure Liberty was third behind Startling last time, beaten by a length and three quarters and should get closer now she's 5lbs better off. Top weight Dubai Magic drops two classes here for a handicap debut and also takes a drop in trip. Her yard does well here at Wolverhampton and jockey Clifford Lee has had a great year riding for this stable...
and I think I'll take (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty here.
Leg 2 : 4.50 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ novice stakes over 5f...
My initial shortlist here was All Ways Glamorous, Glowchester, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr. All Ways Glamorous has been knocking on the door of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three with ever decreasing margins of defeat and today could well be the day. Glowchester has also got closer to winning in each of last three runs, finishing 432 and also only went down by a neck last time out, so these two make the ticket.
Of the other three runners to have raced so far, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr have shown more than Gigastar. Of those two, the former has been off the track for almost four months, whilst Mockirr's yard have a good record at Wolverhampton and also do well with runners on their second outing...
...so I'm going with (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester here.
Leg 3 : 5.25 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...
The 3yo filly Shamardia has been a winner and a runner-up (half a length down) in her last two starts and she's clearly the horse in form here, although course winner Coconut Bay scored at Catterick three starts ago too. Araifjan, Coast and Neptune Legend have all won over course and distance, but haven't really produced anything in their last three or four outings and to be honest, only four of the field have shown any consistency at all over the last couple of years on the A/W...
(3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay are the more obvious picks for me here and I think I'll also go with course and distance winner (5) Araifjan on his second run after a wind op.
Leg 4 : 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...
Not the best race you'll ever see, but it certainly looks open/competitive with cases to be made for most of the field. War Chant, Hartswood and Cavalry Call all won last time out, which boosts their claims. Local Bay has won four of his last seven, Winterfair has been placed third in four of his last six whilst bottom weight Between Me And U has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.
From a win perspective, Instant Expert is keenest on the three drawn lowest of all...
...whilst the pace in the race looks like coming from...
I definitely want to take Cavalry Call and War Chant here, leaving me with a choice between Winterfair and Between Me And U, I suppose. The latter is in better form, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace, so in a tricky one to assess, I'm with (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U.
Leg 5 : 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Nights Over Egypt won last time out and Kristal Klear won two starts ago, before stepping up in class and going down by just a head as a runner-up at Haydock earlier this month. She's back down in class and the winner from Haydock has since won again and have the horses placed fourth and fifth, so I'd expect Kristal Klear to go well here today. LTO winner Nights Over Egypt is one of only two course winners in the field (Top Button is the other, but looks hindered by being drawn 12 of 12).
Higher drawn runners have fared worse here over this track and trip when it comes to making the frame, so lower drawn horses with early pace have been the ones to look at, which suggests this trio might be in with a shout...
...further cementing the claims of Kristal Klear. I do still want to take Nights Over Egypt, as I think these two are far better than the rest who seem much of a muchness if truth be told. Dynamite Katie has been a runner-up in two of her last four, has the lowest draw possible, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace. She'd be a long shot to win, I'd reckon but I'm taking (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie here.
Leg 6 : 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Swinging Eddie won at Catterick last time out but hasn't raced for almost ten weeks. That said, none of the others even made the frame and Swinging Eddie has 3 win and 2 further places from nine efforts over course/distance, making him one to watch. Lady Wingalong has also had a bit of a break (7 weeks), but with five placed finishes from her last six outings does arrive here in decent nick, as does Awaysmont with two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six. Carvalhal won four races ago and Gilt Edge has two wins and two places from her seven runs this year.
Instant Expert suggests that American Rose could be well suited by conditions here too and she did win on her last A/W start...
...but the draw seems to be against her and Gilt Edge...
...whilst the pace stats back up Swinging Eddie's claims and also suggest that Carvalhal might be difficult to rein in...
I've got to take (1) Swinging Eddie and (3) Lady Wingalong here based on form, but those pace stats also make (8) Carvalhal a live prospect from a middling draw.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty
Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester
Leg 3: (3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay & (5) Araifjan
Leg 4: (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U
Leg 5: (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie
Leg 6: (1) Swinging Eddie, (3) Lady Wingalong & (8) Carvalhal
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Sir Michael Stoute had his first ever Racing League winner when the regally-bred Reaching High formed part of an incredible five-timer for Team East on the second night of action.
By Sea The Stars and out of Gold Cup winner Estimate, the three-year-old, owned by the King and Queen, made a sweeping move under Luke Morris and sprinted clear to win for the first time at the seventh attempt by seven and a half lengths, relishing the step up in trip.
Morris said: “He’s a gorgeous, big, scopey horse and I feel awful winning so far on him but it was a very messy race. I think he’ll make into a really nice stayer in the future.
Reaching High looks booked for a bright future (Nigel French/PA)
“It’s great to see such top connections supporting the Racing League.”
Following three winners at Yarmouth on the opening night, the team managed by Chris Hughes and assisted by trainer Charlie Fellowes, extended their league at the top of the table in some style
Morris got the night off to a flyer on Terry Kent’s Habooba (9-1) while there were also victories for Neil Callan on Fellowes’ Glam Squad (9-1) and two for Danny Muscutt on Kevin Philippart De Foy’s Bint Al Daar (10-1) and James Fanshawe’s Willem Twee (7-2 favourite)
Hughes told ITV 4: “We seem to be winning every other race at the moment!
The grey Glam Squad was one of four Team East winners (Nigel French/PA)
“It’s great because we have great sets of owners and for Kevin to get a winner on his birthday is great. Hopefully we keep charging.
“It’s the beauty of the Racing League, good prize money has attracted good horses which attracts good crowds as well. I’ve seen loads of racing people here.
“Hopefully people get behind it. We’ve had loads of support and it’s an easy game when you are winning.”
Yorkshire opened their account for the new season, aptly given August 1 is Yorkshire Day, when Longlai (9-1) won for Michael Wigham and David Allan while Thunder Blue (13-2) led home one a one-two for Wales & The West, winning for for Jamie and Saffie Osborne.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/277027178-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-08-01 19:57:342024-08-02 10:30:06Reaching High bolts up for noteworthy Racing League success
Scott Dixon was left to reflect on what for him proved an “incredibly strange” last race at Wolverhampton on Monday night, where only two runners eventually lined up after a false start.
The stalls did not seem to open when the starter’s flag fell in the closing Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap but then released moments later, causing the starter to wave his flag to signal a false start.
By that point the horses were already a stride or two into the seven-furlong race and though the call to pull up appeared to spread fairly quickly, that was easier said than done for many of the riders.
Sue Gardner’s Kimifive and Dixon’s Mudlahhim were already locking horns and several other horses were reluctant to stop behind them.
The rules state horses are automatically withdrawn if they complete the course after the false start flag is waved, meaning all eight horses that crossed the line could not then partake in the rerun of the race. Oriental Spirit’s trainer Stuart Kittow decided not to take part after his horse ran keenly before being pulled up near the line, adding to earlier non-runner Captain Wentworth.
Eventually only two horses lined up for the delayed running, with Dixon’s other runner A Pint Of Bear losing out by three-quarters of a length to an old stablemate in John O’Shea’s Rose Fandango.
“It was an incredibly rare situation, from what I can gather the stalls didn’t open when they pressed the button,” Dixon said.
“I’ve watched the race back and I think it was all of them, it wasn’t a select few.
“The rule is if you cross the line you’re out and there were some horses that just couldn’t pull up and one of those was definitely mine.
“I had two runners, I had Mudlahhim and A Pint Of Bear. Mudlahhim is an unbelievably keen horse in his home work and he can be in his races. He just thought he was in a race.
“When my assistant and I saw what happened we both looked at each other and said there was zero chance of getting him back before the finishing line.
“Ultimately that’s what happened, him and another horse did another circuit and they were just taking each other on which wasn’t helping matters.”
The matter has been forwarded to the British Horseracing Authority for review after all riders, the starters, the starting stalls team leader, clerk of the course Fergus Cameron and others were interviewed and shown recordings of the incident.
“It was just incredibly strange, and to make it even stranger for me was that the horse we ended up in a match race with, Rose Fandango, I used to train,” Dixon added.
“His last win was with me, so it got even weirder! I ran down to the start and saw A Pint Of Bear myself to make sure he was all right.
“Phil (Dennis, jockey) and I thought he was fine and he was looked at by the vet and he was all good to go.
“It’s not going to be ideal for any of them but he was 100 per cent fine to run, we made the decision to let him have a go and sadly for us we lost the match race.
“All the horses were fine and all the jockeys were fine and that’s all that matters, really.
“It seems like it was a mechanical fault, which ultimately can just happen, and even human error is always going to happen occasionally.
“It’s just one of those things, you’ve got to feel sorry for people with horses that couldn’t run – they have spent the money and taken the time to go, it is very unfortunate but it is just one of those things.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/270630213-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-04-09 11:59:452024-04-09 11:59:45Dixon unlikely to forget chaotic events at Wolverhampton in a hurry
Nine Tenths continued to demonstrate her ability with a smart success in the BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton.
William Haggas’ four-year-old has been faring well on the all-weather over the winter, winning over course and distance on debut before finishing second in both a Newcastle handicap and the Listed Tandridge Stakes at Lingfield.
She was the only filly in a field of six on her return to Wolverhampton and started as the 15-8 favourite under William Buick.
After allowing others to make the running, she pounced on the turn for home and pulled clear of her rivals to prevail by a length and a quarter, leaving Misty Grey in second and Shouldvebeenaring in third place.
“She did everything right there, seven furlongs is probably her trip and she won very well,” Buick told Sky Sports Racing.
“She looked a picture beforehand and she had race fitness on her side, she was very fluent throughout the race – very smooth and relaxed.”
Kingdom Come overcame a slow start to land the BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap.
Clive Cox’s five-year-old was partnered by Rossa Ryan and started as the 11-4 favourite after two good runs on the all-weather so far this year, including finishing third behind Dear My Friend at Lingfield last time out.
The gelding rocked backwards in his stall at the start of the contest, however, briefly unbalancing himself and Ryan.
They began the race on the back foot as a result, but Ryan did not panic and weaved through the field to find a more competitive position.
In the the final half-furlong he hit the front and held off the challenging Final Voyage to prevail by a head.
“He has tended to be slow out of the gates, my plan was to jump and go forward and let the pace from out wide come across and get in but it didn’t work,” Ryan said.
“I punted round, I had the horse when I needed him.
“Clive’s held this lad in high regard all the time, always has done, the middle of the season last year didn’t go to plan for him.
“He’s got back on track, I think we would have given Dear My Friend a proper race last time but we went so slow.
“The draw didn’t help and he has to drop in because he’s keen, but Clive has a plan with him this year and he’s really developing into a lovely horse.
“I think when he gets on a bit of fast ground, he’ll be a happy horse.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2385c6ea-0c02-496b-aea6-e0e3b8e7b2fa.jpg7201441Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-03-09 17:19:522024-03-09 17:19:52Nine Tenths takes possession of Lady Wulfruna title
Richard Hannon possesses a strong hand in Saturday’s BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton – but stresses Group One performer Shouldvebeenaring will not be in optimum condition for his seasonal reappearance.
Owned by Middleham Park Racing, the four-year-old sets a clear standard on what he achieved last season, finishing the campaign by placing in top tier events both at Haydock and ParisLongchamp.
He drops to Listed level for his return to action, but with many big days and a long summer ahead of him, Hannon has warned the mount of Sean Levey will not be fully tuned up for his Dunstall Park appearance.
Shouldvebeenaring in action on the all-weather (Richard Sellers/PA)
Hannon said: “He’s going to need it badly, it is going to be quite a busy year for him and we’re just giving him a run to get him ready for some of the bigger races later in the year.
“He’ll enjoy having a run round there and he might still win, but I imagine he will improve massively on this whatever he does.”
Hannon has won this race twice in the last four years and is also represented by 2021 champion Mums Tipple, who although well held after meeting trouble in running at Lingfield recently, is expected to come on for the run in the hands of Hollie Doyle.
“Mums Tipple has had the advantage of having a run and he won’t be far away, he’s working great,” continued Hannon.
Mums Tipple is a proven operator at the level (Nigel French/PA)
While both Shouldvebeenaring and Mums Tipple are proven performers, Geoff Oldroyd’s Doctor Khan Junior is very much taking a step into the unknown on his first try in Pattern company.
Proven in the West Midlands, the five-year-old is unbeaten in his last four outings – all on the all-weather – and his handler feels there is no better time than the present to test the waters at a higher level.
“He just keeps progressing and we’ve got to the stage now where he is rated 99 and it is probably going to be hard in handicaps,” explained Oldroyd.
“There aren’t that many races around for him at the moment, so we’re just going to pop him up into a Listed race and see how we get on.
“He likes Wolverhampton and comes alive around there, so while he’s healthy and in good nick, it’s probably a good time to find out if he is good enough to go up in that grade.”
Another attempting to make her mark at this level is Nine Tenths, who has always been a consistent performer for trainer William Haggas and owners St Albans Bloodstock and having gained black type when second to Dear My Friend at Lingfield last month, will now bid to go one better.
“She’s quite lightly raced for a four-year-old but she has been very consistent and I think she has only been out of the first four once in her career to date,” said the owners’ racing manager Richard Brown.
“She got her black type last time which is important and she looks to have a fair chance of getting some more. Whether that is winning black type though, I don’t know and we will find out.
“Richard Hannon’s horse will be hard to beat on the ratings, but she’s fit and well and ready to go and we’ve obviously got William (Buick) on board which is always a great help. We’re hoping for a big run and she goes there match fit, which we hope will give us some bit of advantage.”
Course-and-distance winners Misty Grey (David O’Meara) and Intervention (Mick Appleby) complete the sextet heading to post for this seven-furlong feature.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/273663548-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-03-08 12:39:072024-03-08 12:39:07Hannon issues Wolverhampton warning for Shouldvebeenaring
Joe Fanning is set for a short spell on the sidelines after being knocked out in a fall at Wolverhampton on Monday night that led to three-time champion jockey Oisin Murphy being hit with a nine-day ban.
Fanning and his mount Sennockian passed the post a nose in front of the Murphy-ridden Dr Foster in an extended one-mile handicap at Dunstall Park, but was unseated just after the winning line.
The 53-year-old regained consciousness prior to leaving the track, but was taken to hospital for precautionary tests before later returning home.
“Joe is fine. He had precautionary scans on his head and everything at New Cross Hospital in Wolverhampton and they came back clear,” said his agent Niall Hannity.
“He got home late last night and I spoke to him this morning and he is fine.
“I’m not sure how long he’ll be out for. He’ll have to pass a baseline concussion test and it will be up to Dr Jerry Hill when he’ll be able to take that.
“We’ll see how he is in the next day or two, but he obviously won’t be riding this weekend or next week, I wouldn’t have thought.”
A stewards’ enquiry was called to consider the placings after several incidents of interference in the home straight.
The stewards ruled that Fanning had not committed any riding offences and that the placings should remain unaltered, but Murphy was found guilty of careless riding.
A stewards’ report read: “Murphy was suspended for nine days as he allowed his mount to drift approximately two horse widths right-handed away from the whip causing interference to Sennockian, before then using the whip again in the left hand whereupon his mount shifted further right-handed causing interference to Sennockian, with Fanning being unseated after the line.”
Murphy will be out of action on March 11 and 12 and from March 18 to 24, meaning he is set to miss the first weekend of the British Flat turf season at Doncaster.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/275034184-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-02-27 10:28:232024-02-27 10:28:23Fanning ‘fine’ but facing brief layoff after Wolverhampton KO
Bookmakers have reported turnover on Sunday evening’s historic meeting at Wolverhampton “on a par” with a typical midweek all-weather fixture.
Racing took place at Dunstall Park as the first of six trial meetings scheduled on Sunday evenings through the winter, in an attempt to boost racing’s finances through increased contribution from bookmakers to the Levy.
The card featured strong numerical fields and enhanced prize-money with a minimum of £15,000 per race, with most races run for almost three times the minimum value for their respective grade.
However, concerns remain about the well-being of the participants and winning jockeys Callum Shepherd and Robert Havlin both spoke out against the trial but felt they would lose rides in the future if they did not take part.
Coral spokesperson David Stevens said: “New initiatives such as this should always be given time to bed-in, and this first meeting was up against a big FA Cup match live on terrestrial TV (Arsenal versus Liverpool), which would have had an impact, but overall it was a very solid start, with turnover on a par with a typical evening meeting.”
Betfred’s Matt Hulmes offered a similar assessment, saying: “We took what we would normally expect on an evening all-weather meeting – it was our best performing Wolverhampton meeting of the week, but you would expect that to be the case given the increased prize-money.
“It was broadly what we take at most evening all-weather meetings, but it was the second-highest turnover meeting on the all-weather last week.”
Paddy Power painted a brighter picture, with the firm’s Paul Binfield saying the new meeting was among their best staking fixtures of the week.
He said: “The new Sunday evening fixture performed really well with competitive fields of more than 11 runners and an average favourite SP of more than 2-1.
“The card was in our top five highest-staking fixtures of the week with a double-figure stakes increase on the average Wolverhampton card over the last three months.”
Wolverhampton is part of Arena Racing Company and their group operations director Mark Spincer told Sky Sports Racing on Sunday a view would be taken after all six of the trial meetings had taken place.
“As a group we decided Sunday night could be an area that would drive Levy, it gives us opportunity to own an area – when I say ‘us’, I’m talking about the all-weather tracks – that currently doesn’t have a huge amount of sport in which could mean increased turnover, which means better Levy and overall better financial performance,” said Spincer.
“I can only speak for ARC tracks and from our point of view, whatever public we get we want to accommodate. I think there’s a nice crowd, probably 6/700 being a part of history.
“I think we need to try new things, things take time to grow, look at the Racing League or Good Friday, things take time to get established, last year’s Racing League was our best attendance, Good Friday was a record attendance last year as well.
“Can we make something of the Sunday evenings? I’m sure we can at some point remembering that there are six, it’s a trial and then we pull up stumps and everybody looks at how well it has performed or not performed and then decisions will be made on the future. I’m not prepared to make any comments past six because it’s agreed as a trial and that is exactly what we are in.”
Richard Wayman, chief operating officer at the British Horseracing Authority, said one of the main aims of Sunday racing was to help grow interest in British racing.
“One of the things we are trying to do as part of the Industry Strategy is to try to grow interest in racing and grow the number of people who follow the sport,” he said.
“We’ve got various workstreams in relation to the fixture list which are designed to try to achieve that. Make more of the big stuff on a Saturday through Premierisation and we want to improve the quality of Sunday racing and through listening to our colleagues in the betting industry, who have told us there is significant growth in the amounts of money being bet generally on a Sunday evening, (we are staging the trial).
“What we don’t know at this stage is the appetite for betting on British racing on a Sunday evening, so the purpose of the six trial meetings is just to try to ascertain what demand there is. These six fixtures will tell us what the demand is.
“Callum’s comments are perfectly understandable as this does put a lot of strain on those people servicing the fixtures such as jockeys, trainers, stable staff, our own staff, the racecourse staff servicing those fixtures as there are a lot of people involved in putting a race meeting on, so as part of the trial we will get feedback from all of those people.
“At the end of those six fixtures we’ll take a view on whether this is something we should be thinking about long term or not, but only by trying it can we make that decision.
“The betting industry will make the figures available to the BHA and we have set targets. We’d like to see these meetings outperform a regular all-weather night meeting by 15-20 per cent, even if it does do that it doesn’t necessarily mean it will carry on.”
The next Sunday evening fixture is scheduled for Chelmsford on January 21.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/264932648-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-01-08 14:52:102024-01-08 14:52:10Bookmakers report steady start for first Sunday evening fixture
Callum Shepherd questioned the need for Sunday evening racing after his mount Charlie’s Choice entered the record books as a new era for British racing began under the lights at Wolverhampton.
Floodlit all-weather meetings on a Sunday evening are being trialled throughout the winter as part of the British Horseracing Authority’s wide-range of initiatives to improve the sport, with the enhanced prize-money incentives on offer attracting a bumper field of entrants to Dunstall Park.
Eleven went to post for the opening Find More Big Deals At BetUK Handicap and it was David Simcock’s Charlie’s Choice (3-1) who came home best in the hands of Shepherd to score by three-quarters of a length.
Shepherd was booked for four mounts on the Wolverhampton card, with his final ride scheduled for the last race of the day at 8.30pm, and after claiming the opener, he voiced his opinion on Sunday racing.
“It would be nice if it wasn’t a Sunday evening,” Shepherd told Sky Sports Racing.
“We don’t need to be here on a Sunday evening. I think in the summer, during peak season, you accept it is part and parcel and jump racing can facilitate Sunday racing throughout the winter as we do through the summer.
Wolverhampton hosted the first Sunday evening floodlit meeting (David Davies/PA)
“Bar the festive period, I don’t think there is any great need for Sunday racing and certainly not Sunday evening racing.
“We might get a couple of hundred quid extra in our pockets, but I don’t think it is healthy.
“I want to be able to go watch football with my dad and things like that and if this becomes a regular thing – which it will – you just cross that brink between having absolutely no work-life balance and I don’t think that is right.
“My desire to ride winners and my desire to ride for David outweighs that, and it has to as a rider with the dedication it requires, it is not an option not to come. So I will always be available. But I don’t think I should be here at 8.30pm on a Sunday night.”
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Today’s meeting at Huntingdon has been abandoned following flooding of the course last night.
The Peterborough Chase card survived inspections on Thursday and Friday but the Cambridgeshire track could not cope with further rain.
This afternoon’s fixture at Kelso was called off yesterday due to excess rainfall and areas of false ground.
That leaves Britain without a Sunday National Hunt meeting, although there will be Flat racing on Wolverhampton’s all-weather circuit.
Over in Ireland, Cork will stage a high-class jumps card featuring three Graded races, including the reappearance of El Fabiolo in the Bar One Racing Hilly Way Chase.
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