The free feature of the day on Wednesdays is the Trainer Stats Report. This detailed report not only gives a clear indication of the trainers who are most and least in form but can also be used to cross reference previous performance at today’s racecourses where they have entries. This highlights possible courses the trainers target with their best chances of winners.
There are another 6 free races of the day too on Wednesday…
The 5.22 at Yarmouth, a 1m class 6 handicap for older horses, is the only flat handicap on that list so that’s my preference for Wednesday. Despite rain around the country in recent days this race is set to be run on good to firm and there are 10 runners entered.
As I have in recent days, I’m going to rely on the draw and pace combination heat map to hopefully highlight any possible draw and pace biases, killing two birds with one stone, or graph as the case may be
The above is generated from similar field sizes in races run on either good, or good to firm ground. There doesn’t seem to be a strong draw or pace bias here. It seems high drawn runners that race in mid division can be at a slight disadvantage, as are prominent racers from that same position, but higher drawn hold up horses do best of all the hold up horses which doesn’t quite fully make sense given they’ll mostly be charting the same course.
Overall the individual pace setup in the race should have a far larger bearing on the outcome than any course biases. This brings me nicely on to the pace map for this race.
Quite an unusual pace scenario for this race, showing the importance of looking at likely pace setups before having a bet in any race. Here we have just two runners that aren’t habitually held up. Those two runners are Arlo’s Sunshine and Aletoile. The former has been prominent at the least on all of his last four outings but only led last time out. The latter has gone to the front early on two of her last four runs and could be a more likely early leader than Arlo’s Sunshine. Either way these are the two pace options and some of those that are usually help up will have to find themselves racing prominently which might not necessarily suit. Both Arlo’s Sunshine and Aletoile should enjoy a significant advantage here, but do they have a form chance?
Was third last time out but that was when enjoying the run of the race at Chelmsford in a race that was won by a horse shedding his maiden tag at the 39th attempt. Three of his four turf starts have come at this venue and although he’s yet to win on turf he was 2nd here over course and distance off this same mark, beaten by a warm favourite. He looks likely to run well on form but he doesn’t look especially well treated.
Has a bit more of a convincing profile than Arlo’s Sunshine, running well here three times last summer, but she disappointed on her final start last season at Kempton, when sent off favourite, and hasn’t been seen in the past 211 days. Chris Dwyer tends to do pretty well at Yarmouth, scoring a PRB of 0.60 here in the past 5 years, but with Thore Hammer Hansen riding that PRB goes up to 0.76. Dwyer has had a close 4th and a winner from two runners who have returned to handicaps after a 60+ day break over the past few months which is a good indication that Aletoile should be fit here and this could be a good opportunity for her to shed her maiden tag on her 13th start - lucky for some.
Of the remainder of the field, those with the best chance appear to be Cents In The City, who may appreciate this trip but does have to prove himself on turf (might be suited by cut in the ground on turf), and also Amal who was last seen running on well in a fair handicap at Nottingham. She ran okay here twice last summer off marks around a stone higher than this and her latest effort was a return to form so she could build on that and pose even more of a threat here.
Amal is quite interesting but there is potentially for this race to be run at a very modest early gallop and the safest choice, and probably value choice, is going to be to go for something that is likely to benefit from that steady pace. Top of the list is Aletoile who has several trainer/jockey stats going for her and proven course form in the book. A slow gallop over a mile might just prove perfect and she should be the pick of these ahead of Arlo’s Sunshine who looks less well handicapped but has a fair chance based on likely early position.