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Racing Insights, 20th October 2020

Very happy with the way Monday's race panned out. I initially eliminated four of the seven runners and my final three were the first three home. Had I been a bit braver, I'd be celebrating a 3/1 winner, but I'd wanted a bit more juice in the price.

So, with a moral victory of sorts behind us, let's move on to Tuesday, where the free feature is The Shortlist and the free racecards cover the following contests...

  • 12.25 Yarmouth
  • 12.55 Yarmouth
  • 2.15 Exeter
  • 2.40 Tipperary
  • 3.40 Fairyhouse
  • 4.20 Yarmouth

Of the six races above, only the Exeter one was of initial interest, but there's likely to be an odds-on favourite in there and the going is likely to see a few pull out, so I've decided to leave it alone and look at The Shortlist report to see if any of the runners featured might be worth sticking a quid (or more) on.

So, without further unnecessary ado...

A trio to consider with plenty of green to look at, so let's go in time order and start with Intrinsic Bond...

He has been in good form for some time now with 3 wins and 2 places from 7 runs over the last year (more on that shortly) and hails from a yard with three winners from seven (42.9%) so far this month and a decent record here at Newcastle including 7 winners from 33 (21.2%) this year, of which those racing over this course and distance are 3 from 7 (42.9%)

Next up, Instant Expert...

This is what gets him on the shortlist and over the last year, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 starts, including 3 wins and a place from 6 on a straight run, 3 wins and a place from 5 where the market deemed he had a chance, 3 wins and a place under Jason Hart, two wins and a place from four over 6f, two wins from three at Class 4, but just one placed effort in this grade and he won on his only previous visit to this track (over course and distance).

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He's drawn right out in 14 of 14, but that's not always a negative, as (a) there are no bends to contend with 9b) our pace/draw heat map suggests he could actually be in a decent spot out wide...

Overall, I'd expect him to be well suited to the task, but he's up 3lbs for a nice win on soft ground at Redcar last time out and also steps up in class. He handles the surface well enough and gets on great with today's jockey and his yard is in decent general form and also more long-term at this venue. Definite chance here.

And now to Skyace...

Trainer John Joseph Hanlon's runner here makes a second attempt at landing a handicap but the stats aren't good on that front, as the yard's stats with 2nd timers stands at just one win from the last 23 efforts, although that win was just 2 qualifiers ago. The hanlon runners are 4 from 15 (26.7%) here at Tipperary since the start of 2019, which is promising, but at 1/5 over hurdles, 0/5 in handicaps and 0/2 in handicap hurdles, the optimism does diminish.

But how might this one fare under today's conditions...

Well, he has two wins and a place from five efforts over hurdles, but after winning his first two, has struggled under weights of 11 stone-plus, toiling to a combined deficit of some 114 lengths in the three defeats since, but he's not on the shortlist for no reason, as his three placed finishes came in less valuable races like this one, he has won in a hood and did win here over course and distance.

In such races here at Tipperary, it has paid to remain in touch, but not race too prominently as shown below...

...but I feel a change of tactics would be needed here, as he has tended to race a bit more keenly of late and that's not going to be beneficial here.

Overall, he's out of sorts and represents a yard with a poor record with 2nd time handicappers and a poor record at this venue in this kind of race. He clearly has ability, but carries too much weight again here for my liking and I'm calling him as one to avoid.

Last up for today is Molly Shaw, who goes in one of our free races of the day, a 16-runner, Class 6, 6f  soft-ground "sprint", so you can see why I wasn't keen on a full race analysis of this one, but let's see if Molly Shaw might be in with a shout...

As the snippets show, the yard has done well here at Yarmouth over the past year, whilst Jack Mitchell has enjoyed plenty of success riding the Wall runners. Incidentally, on the trainer/jockey/course angle, the last five runners have finished 11152 including a win for today's runner back in August.

For her part, Molly is 113 in handicaps, all over a straight 6f strip including 2 from 2 at Class 6, 2 from 2 under Jack Mitchell and despite no run on soft ground, she did win her only attempt on good to soft ground.

Pace/draw-wise, it looks like wide-drawn prominent runners hold the key to success in this type of contest...

...and whilst Young John looks set to get out and make the pace, he's probably 20/1 for a reason and if our girl follows him, she could be expertly placed to pick up the pieces as the leader weakens late on, as reports from 5 of his last 6 outings suggest he will.

Summary

I've little/no interest in the Tipperary runner, there's not much in what I've seen that would make me believe he'll suddenly start winning again, but our other two runners have serious chances, but you'd want a price on them.

Both run in very competitive big-field contests and Intrinsic Bond is up in weight and class and is unproven at that level, whilst Molly Shaw has no form on soft ground at all. That doesn't mean she won't handle it, of course, but it's a big unknown. I expect both to give good accounts of themselves.

Both should be there or thereabouts and if she handles the ground Molly Shaw could be a nice pick at odds of 7/1 or hopefully better. Ideally I'd want at least 8's if not double digits, so you could then take a 4-place E/W run at her.

As for Intrinsic Bond, I do like him, but I'm not sure he's quite good enough at this level and he's already as low as 10/3 which is too short for my liking.

Racing Insights, 12th October 2020

For Monday's piece, I'm going to look at the Trainer Statistics report and have a look at trainer George Boughey's performance in handicaps over the last year. His numbers are excellent and I'm going to see if there are any suggestions/pointers within the racecards and report suite to suggest if he's likely to add to the tally soon.

So, I suppose the best place to start is the Trainer Stats, 1 year handicap report as follows..

A good strike rate for both win and place, profitable at both win and place plus good figures for A/W and IV all point to the possibility of a winner. George has three bites of the cherry across two cards, where Yarmouth will be soft ground and it'll be heavy at Windsor. It's a Class 4, 6f contest at Windsor, whilst the Yarmouth races are both Class 5, 7f affairs, whilst the Windsor runner is the sole male of the trio.

In respect of Monday's races, George's 15 from 62 record in handicaps over the last year includes 9 wins from 30 (30%) on the Flat from which he is 2 from 2 at Yarmouth and 1 from 1 at Windsor. He 3 from 15 (20%) at Class 4 and 6 from 31 (19.35%) at Class 5, whilst males at 11/43 (25.6%) have outperformed females at 4/19 (21.1%), but none of this is negative.

Age-wise, 2yos are 2/8 (25%), 4yos are 7/21 (33.3%) and 5yos are 2/5 (40%), whilst all 15 runners have come from the 48 runners (31.25% SR) sent off at 12/1 or shorter. With an eye on the trip, 6f runners are certainly less successful at 1/8 (12.5%) as opposed to 4/17 (23.5%) over 7f, whilst overall those racing at 6-45 dslr are 13 from 47 (27.7%) and those racing is fields of 9-12 runners are 8/31 (25.8%).

And the last piece of the data jigsaw before race analysis is the the fact that George is using three jockeys. Oison Murphy hasn't ridden for the yard in the last year, but Ben Curtis is 2 from 7 (28.6%), whilst William Buick is an excellent 3 from 6 (50%).

My overall view of the data breakdown is that I'm still positive about the chances of all three so far but with an obvious caveat about Rock Sound running over a trip that the yard hasn't fared too well at. Maybe the racecards will assuage that fear? We'll not know until we look, so let's do that (in race time order as above), starting with Miss Fernanda...

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and the pace/draw heatmap, set to last three runs, because over half of the filed don't have four runs yet...

So, we see that she's drawn out in 10 of 10, but a high draw for a prominent racer has proved successful here in the past, so I'm not as concerned as I might be about the draw. We said Oisin Murphy hadn't ridden a Boughey handicapper in the last year, but he is 14 from 73 (19.2%) on this track over the last three seasons.

Miss Fernanda also tops the Geegeez Speed ratings, but I think she might well struggle here today. She did, admittedly improve from race 1 to race 2 and then again to race 3 where she won making all at Bath over 5.5f on good to firm ground. Both runs since then have been disappointing, especially her 18-length defeat over 6f at Leicester on handicap/nursery debut three weeks ago, also on good to firm. She was sent off at 18/1 that day and I'd say the market would be a good indicator of her chances on her soft ground bow.

Next up, we have Rock Sound...

No snippet from the Speed ratings, as he sits 5th of 12 on that stat and the pace/draw heatmap isn't too encouraging either at...

In his favour, however, is Ben Curtis who aside from riding a couple of winners for George Boughey over the last year is also 131053 here at Windsor so far this season and he'll now take his chance upon this 5 yr old gelding who is having his first outing since leaving Declan Carroll's yard.

He's a former winner at both 6f (fibresand) and 7f (soft/heavy) and does tend to run well towards the end of the year. He won on 5th November last year and was then a runner-up beaten by a neck a month later and that was the last we saw of him until he finished 12th of 15 at Ripon last month. That was, of course, his first run for 9 months, so he's more than entitled to come on for the pip-opener. Incidentally that win almost a year ago was also a yard debut.

He's definitely of interest and has proven form at class, trip and going.

And finally, we go back to Yarmouth and easily the most experienced (25 runs to date) of the trio, Redemptive...

She lies 4th on the Speed Ratings at 58, whilst the pace/draw heatmap isn't ideal...

...but she is what she is : a hold-up horse of late, but who has raced more prominently in the past and I wonder if the prediction of "probable lone speed" from a centrally drawn runner might just push her on a bit quicker. Jockey William Buick has a good record on the Boughey 'cappers and is 2 from 2 on this horse and also 7 from 26 (26.9%) at Yarmouth over the last two seasons including 3 from 6 over this 7f track and trip, so I'd expect him to judge the pace well enough.

It's also worth pointing out that Redemptive has won over course and distance herself. That was just over six weeks ago, also under William Buick at this grade from a hold up position. The report for the race read...held up towards rear, smooth headway 2f out, weaved between runners entering final furlong to lead...so the pace/draw heatmap might not be as bad as it first looks.

More generally...her 3 from 25 record isn't too inspiring, but she is 3 from 13 at this trip with a further 3 placed efforts. She has won on good to soft ground and did, of course score over course and distance five starts ago.

She has been in the handicapper's grip of late, but now runs off a mark just 1lb higher than her last win and her 5th place finish last time out was a better effort than it seems on paper, as she overcame an awkward start to get involved before her interest was ended by being hampered in the final furlong. One of her rivals that day has run since and landed another C5 7f hcp.

Summary

The trainer's record over the last year under Monday's conditions would suggest all three are worth a second glance, but I'd say his chances seem to improve as the day goes on. It'd be a watching brief for me in the opener, as I feel Miss Fernanda is really up against it and the market will probably show that to be true.

As for the other two, neither are obvious winners tomorrow, but both are quite capable of at least making the frame. Redemptive is marginally the most likely for me, but she's going to need a bit of luck in running waiting for the gaps to appear. If those gaps don't come, she's going to get trapped on the rail or will need switching out, which invariably loses ground.

 

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

6.40 Kempton : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led over 1f, soon steadied in 3rd, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd again entering final furlong, soon every chance, no extra and well held when edged left final 100 yards)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

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As ever the Geegeez racecard and report suite provide a stack of information, starting with the card itself...

...and then our ratings...

...before heading over to check the Shortlist (win)...

... and the Shortlist (place)...

...which lead us back to the card and the Instant Expert tab set to win...

...and then its place variant...

All of which combine to form a fairly compelling case for a horse suited by conditions, hailing from an in-form yard that has done well here at Yarmouth in the past. I don't want to add too much to the above for fear of information overload, but to just add a little meat to those bones, I'd say...

...that the horse has won 2 of 11 starts, but both wins have come from just two attempts in 8-10 runner handicaps over 7f/1m of a mark in the 70's this year, within 2 to 5 weeks of his last run, all of which are in situ today.

I'd also like to briefly touch on trainer William Stone's record here at Yarmouth highlighted by the C1 and C5 icons. I won't go into the actual 1yr and 5yr data with you, because you can click the trainer icon on the card to see those instantly, but what I do want to show you is a quick direct comparison between William's overall record of...

...which isn't much to shout about if we're honest, but since the start of 2019, his 2-5 yr olds in 8-11 runner handicaps during June-October here at Yarmouth have finished 411112 with the latest qualifier only beaten by a nose here 17 days ago. Stat-wise, those six runners are...

...and I think that's where I'll leave this for today...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.45 Chepstow : Daheer @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Stayed in centre early, prominent when edged across to join field after 2f, ridden 3f out, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Starting as usual with the UK's most informative racecard...

As you can see, this horse was of immediate interest, because his trainer William Stone is one of a number of trainers I look out for in Class 5 handicaps. In fact, since the start of last season, both Class 5 & 6 contests have proved to be very rewarding for Mr Stone's followers, as shown below...

...with the average win price suggesting that today's long-ish odds shouldn't put you off taking a punt here.

A quick look at the 12 from 40 record shows...

  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 80.24pts (+250.8%) during April to July inclusive
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 86.43pts (+332.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 85.41pts (+294.5%) at odds ranging from 7/2 to 20/1
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 81.44pts (+313.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m2f
  • 7/20 (35%) for 27.47pts (+137.4%) on good to firm ground
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 50.95pts (+268.2%) with LTO placers
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 51.96pts (+399.7%) at class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 47.95pts (+532.8%) here at Yarmouth
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 8.68pts (+124%) for today's jockey Marco Ghiani...

...whilst those sent off at 7/2 to 20/1 in 7-11 runners contests over 6f to 1m2f during April to July are 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for some 84.45pts (+767.8% ROI) with the four beaten runners including two runners-up, a third and a fourth place, whilst those 11 runners have a 2 from 2 record here at Yarmouth...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday with bet365 BOG, buts always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.35 Kempton : Olympic Conqueror @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead and edged right over 1f out, ran on to win by a length) Nice to get a winner early in the week, gives us some "free hits".

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Dubious Affair @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old filly, who was a Class 5 winner last time, albeit almost six months ago. She was pretty comfortable over 1m2f that day and many of her most recent efforts have suggested today's step up in trip will suit her.

She's by a sire you've all heard of, Frankel and although his progeny tend to get to overbet due to his own legendary stature, those offspring have still proved profitable to follow blindly, clocking up 257 winners from 1199 (21.4% SR) runs.

I'd never suggest backing all 1199 blindly, but if you had, then a £10 level stake on each would have seen you walk away with profits of £1253, a useful 10.5% return on your money for simply spotting Frankel's name.

As usual, I'd suggest applying some logical filters to the main dataset and in the context of today's race, those 1199 baby-Frankels are...

  • 190/866 (21.9%) for 200.7pts (+23.2%) on the Flat
  • 187/749 (25%) for 69.1pts (+9.2%) at Classes 2 to 6
  • 87/403 (21.6%) for 106.3pts (+26.4%) in handicaps
  • 36/119 (30.3%) for 192.6pts (+161.9%) after a 5 to 10 month break
  • 15/63 (23.8%) for 169.9pts (+269.7%) over a 1m6f trip
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 184.6pts (+879.2%) after a break of 5 to 6 months
  • and 8/24 933.3%) for 54.9pts (+228.9%) here at Yarmouth

Advice? Back Frankel's offspring in Class 2-6 Flat handicaps as they are 54/221 (24.4% SR) for 129.2pts (+58.5% ROI)

She is trained by Charlie Fellows and was initially flagged up by my settings in the excellent Geegeez Query Tool Report, which told me that Charlie had a runner in a Class 5 handicap. I look out for such runners because they are 31 from 180 (17.2% SR) for 26.1pts (+14.5% ROI) since 2015, a nice steady little angle that, with today's race in mind, has produced...

  • 28 winners from 119 (23.5%) for 50pts (+42%) at odds of Evens to 8/1
  • 19 from 96 (19.8%) for 45.9pts (+47.8%) during May to September
  • 16 from 91 (17.6%) for 16.6pts (+18.2%) with Stephen Donohoe in the saddle
  • 10 from 45 (22.2%) for 13.5pts (+29.9%) with female runners
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 6.15pts (+32.3%) with LTO winners
  • and 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 1.66pts (+18.4%) here at Yarmouth

Advice? Back Charlie Fellows' Class 5 handicappers sent off at Evens to 8/1 during May to September for 16 winners from 63 (25.4% SR) for 41.8pts (+66.4% ROI) since 2015

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Dubious Affair @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365, Skybet & Hills at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!