Posts

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.00 Ayr : Mecca's Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong. but beaten by 4L)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Emily Goldfinch 9/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

A 5 yr old mare who won here over course and distance two starts ago in a higher grade than today and although she's now rated 6lbs higher than that run, talented claimer Ryan Rossa takes the ride and is more than good value for a 3lb claim.

Both her career wins have been over a 7f trip, both were on good to firm ground (she has 2 wins and a place from 5 on this going) and one was of course over this track and trip.

Her trainer Phil McEntee's handciappers racing over 6/7 furlongs are 40/301 (13.3% SR) for 109.3pts (+36.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these include the following of relevance today...

  • 4/5 yr olds are 27/134 (20.1%) for 166.9pts (+124.6%)
  • 6-10 days since last run : 14/84 (16.6%) for 77.1pts (+91.8%)
  • on good to firm ground : 6/44 (13.6%) for 62.8pts (+142.7%)
  • at Yarmouth : 4/30 (13.3%) for 9.25pts (+30.8%)
  • and under Ryan Rossa : 2/8 (25%) for 4.26pts (+53.3%)

OR... you could have simply backed Phil's 4/5 yr olds racing within 15 days of their last run for 20 winners from 84 (23.8% SR) and profits of 100.6pts (+119.7% ROI).

Meanwhile, jockey Ryan Rossa is still profitable to back blindly after nearly 500 rides, having won 60 of 468 (12.8% ROI) for profits of 39.9pts (+8.53% ROI), including 23 from 165 (13.9%) for 32.7pts (+19.8%) over trips of 6/7 furlongs, whilst this year alone in Class 6 handicaps over 6f to a mile for Phil McEntee, Ryan is 3 from 10 (30%) for 7.35pts (+73.5%), from which...

  • at odds of 5/2 to 6/1 : 3/6 (50%) for 11.35pts (+189.2%)
  • on the Flat : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • here at Yarmouth : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • on good to form ground : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • and here at Yarmouth on good to firm ground at odds of 5/2 to 6/1 : 2/2 (100%) for 10.93pts (+546.5%)...

...suggesting...a 1pt win bet on Emily Goldfinch 9/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.10 Bath : Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd and no extra towards finish)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, bear with me here, as some of you might have noticed that this 7 yr old gelding is currently on 13-month/16-race losing run, so that's got to end soon, surely?

All joking apart, now that he's tumbled in the weights, he has shown some signs of a return to previous form, beaten by just two lengths in a higher grade than this two starts ago at Newbury, before finishing fourth at Wolverhampton nine days ago.

In that Wolverhampton contest, he fared best of the hold-up horses and was possibly a little unlucky to be hampered at a crucial time, just as he was winding up for a run, so to come here off a career low mark, some 12lbs below that last win, could just be the right time to get back to winning ways.

He has won 6 of 15 races when sent off at 4/1 or shorter, so the market will be a good indicator of his chances, he's also 3 from 9 in this grade and John Egan has already ridden him to victory.

And since 2009 in Class 4 to 6 Flat & A/W handicaps, Michael Wigham's horses on losing streaks of more than 5 but less than 25 races and now racing off a lower mark than the one they last won off are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 39.7pts (+59.2% ROI), including...

  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 20.6pts (+73.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20.7pts (+94.2%)
  • and those now rated 8 to 15lbs lower than their last winning mark are 5/21 (23.8%) for 14.9pts (+71%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, SkyBet & UniBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th June

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £235.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 63.6% units went through – 5/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 2: 46.5% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 11/2

Race 3: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 7/2 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 7/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 44.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 19.9% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 10/3 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 1 (Marilyn), 2 (Pour La Victoire) & 7 (Garth Rocket)

Leg 2 (6.10): 4 (Lover’s Knot) & 7 (Rollicking)

Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Nicklaus), 2 (Rogue) & 4 (Kakhoor)

Leg 4 (7.20): 4 (Midnight Blue), 2 (Pippin) & 3 (Poetic Steps)

Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Gorgeous Noora) & 1 (Tirania)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Breath Caught) & 2 (Capton)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.35: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 20 of the 38 horses (53%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective.  The last ten winners (and twelve of the thirteen in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of POUR LA VICTOIRE, MARILYN and GARTH ROCKET.  Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MARILYN fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage.  Whatever happens in the race, the trade press quote of the recent course winner POUR LA VICTOIRE was well wide of the mark at 9/2.  5/2 could be nearer the mark if current overnight support is sustained.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date.  Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until four years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame.  That said, three subsequent results have reverted to type. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Pour La Victoire (good to firm)

 

6.10: There is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Richard Hannon’s Holy Roman Emperor filly ROLLICKING at the time of writing, despite the fact that LOVER’S KNOT comes to the gig with a good reputation from the guys and gals down on Charlie Appleby’s estate.  The latter named Invincible Spirit filly is a half-sister to Key Victory who won on his only start as a juvenile, whilst Rollocking kept on well for pressure behind New Winds recently.  It’s difficult to envisage both of these horses finishing out of the frame in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning the two renewals to date.

 

6.45: All ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 which eliminates just the one runner in the list unfortunately. I find it more than a little surprising that the analysis written by the trade press reporter mentions four horses in the race without including NICKLAUS who is the first name on my Placepot team sheet this evening.  William Haggas continues to send out his horses to great effect in all grades of races and this is another inmate which has been supported on the exchanges overnight, which comes as no surprise to yours truly at all.  Connections might have most to fear from ROGUE and FAKHOOR at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.

 

7.20: Mt Augustus looks weighted out of the equation from my viewpoint in this win only contest, though the other three runners all have claims on the best of their form, thoughts which suggest that the 4/7 quote about MIDNIGHT BLUE in the trade press looks too skinny.  Indeed, Sir Mark Prescott’s projected favourite is not far off the even money mark at the time of writing which if anything, is a little generous!  Whichever way the (betting) wind blows, MIDNIGHT BLUE will be joined by PIPPIN and POETIC STEPS in my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured three Placepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners.

 

7.55: TIRANIA is another Haggas representative on the card which is attracting support, with connections probably having most to fear from Luca Cumani’s Raven’s Pass filly GORGEOUS NOORA who was beaten less that two lengths on her seasonal bow.  Looking at the form figures in the race, Magical Dreams can be expected to attract tens of thousands of units but that could be a good reason to swerve James Fanshawe’s raider on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/9—Syrian Pearl (good to firm & good to soft)

 

8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager and KNOW YOUR LIMIT is a sporting selection to extent the vintage trend.  Four of the last six runners sent out by trainer Ed Walker have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (13/2 & 9/2) winners for good measure.  My trio against the remaining six contenders is complete by BEREATH CAUGHT and CAPTON.

Favourite factor:  All nine winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Brorocco (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £285.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 48.1% units went through – 80/1 – 3/1 – 5/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 93.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 4/7* - 14/1

Race 3: 29.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/4* - 7/1

Race 4: 12.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 6/1 – 16/1

Race 5: 19.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 11/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 76.2% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 10/3 – 10/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Almurr), 3 (Confiding) & 4 (Daafr)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Klassique), 2 (Feline Groovy) & 9 (Solar Echo)

Leg 3 (2.20): 8 (Snow Wind) & 7 (Scottish Jig)

Leg 4 (2.55): 1 (Sea Of Class) & 3 (Dramatic Queen)

Leg 5 (3.30): 5 (Dourado), 1 (Madeleine Bond) & 9 (Wind In My Sails)

Leg 6 (4.00): 1 (Agar’s Plough) & 3 (Mountain Peak)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.20: ALMURR was the subject of some market activity overnight and there was plenty to like about Brian Meehan’s Dandy Man representative when beaten less than three lengths on debut at Leicester.  CONFIDING has been pleasing connections back at Martin Meade’s ranch, whilst DAAFR should be there or thereabouts entering the final furlong.

Favourite factor: Only one of three favourites has secured a Placepot position to date.  The relevant 4/7 market leader finished second last year as we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective after three renewals.

 

1.50: This is a guessing game to a fashion, though the Galieo filly KLASSIQUE could be a tad overpriced with a couple of firms at the time of writing.  William Haggas continues his relentless run of decent form and Tom Marquand’s mount might prove to be the safest option, from a Placepot perspective at least.  Others catching the eye include stable companion FELINE GROOVY and SOLAR ECHO.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.20: With a couple of likely looking representatives in the first heat of this contest, William Haggas looks to have a fairly strong hold, having declared his High Chaparral filly SNOW WIND.  Bet365 are out on a limb at 9/2 as I pen this column and that could look a very decent price in an hour or two I’ll wager.  SCOTTISH JIG has experience on her side (to a fashion) and John Gosden’s Speightstown raider also looks sure to go close.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card. The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.55: SEA OF CLASS and DRAMATIC QUEEN hail from the William Haggas yard which is seemingly seeking to take over the meeting given their declarations on Thursday.  SEA OF CLASS looks to be the clear pick of the pair, though readers should take note of the ‘favourite factor’ below before diving in with both feet!

Favourite factor: Only one of the last four favourites that failed to win their respective events has finished in the frame, stats which include the last two odds on favourites.  That said, market leaders have won three of the last seven renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sea Of Class (good to firm)

 

3.30: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured six of the available eight Placepot positions to date, stats which include all three winners at odds of 25/1, 15/2 and 6/1, albeit via 70% of the total number of runners.  Upwards and onward using that ‘edge’ by naming DOURADO, MADELEINE BOND and WIND IN MY SAILS against the remaining thirteen contenders.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests, whilst only one of the market leaders has secured a Placepot positon during the period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

1/2—Madeleine Bond (good)

1/2—Wind In My Sails (good to firm)

1/1—Kyllachys Tale (good to firm)

1/9—Cricklewood Green (good)

 

4.00: If any of the 15/2 on offer about AGAR’S PLOUGH is still available, I would be inclined to make an investment in a race in which barely any other horse has attracted support overnight.  MOUNTAIN PEAK is nominated as the most obvious threat.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged via the last ten contest, though seven gold medallists during the study period scored at a top price of 7/1.  Five of the ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.20 Chelmsford : Danzay @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up mid-division, one pace when switched outside over 1f out, soon ridden, went 3rd and kept on inside final furlong, not pace to trouble front pair)

We continue with Thursday's...

4.10 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4 handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding is making just his 7th start today and just his third at this trip, having won on his first attempt before finishing as a runner-up LTO 12 days ago. He was headed late on in the piece on soft ground it is hoped/expected that quicker conditions here will help, as should the change of jockey, which is interesting.

The actual placing of this horse into this contest and the associated conditions drew me to the selection rather than his won past form and it all centres around the trainer John Gosden and his shy retiring jockey, a certain Mr Dettori. Let me explain more in numbers!

...over the last 30 days...

  • Mr Gosden is 25 from 83 (30.1% SR)
  • Mr Dettori is 9 from 34 (26.5%)
  • and together they are 6/15 (40%)

...the last fortnight...

  • trainer = 8/29 (27.6%)
  • jockey = 5/13 (38.5%)
  • together = 3/3 9100%)

and the last week?

  • trainer is 5/15 (33.3%)
  • jockey is 3/8 (37.5%)
  • together : 2/2 (100%)

Now, there are probably very few surprises there, but they do suggest that although both are in great form, they're better as a partnership.

Which now brings me to this horse in this race. John Gosden has three runners today, but only one here at Yarmouth, whilst Frankie makes the admittedly relatively short journey to the seaside for just this one ride : he has nothing else anywhere today. I might be overplaying that angle, but  who knows? After all it's only a Class 4 handicap worth less than £6k!

Yarmouth has been very good for Mr Gosden over the years and since the start of the 2015 campaign, his runners are 16 from 43 (37.2% SR) for 31.7pts profit (+73.7 ROI), from which...

  • on good to firm : 14/29 (48.3%) for 38.2pts (+111.5%)
  • males : 11/26 (42.3%) for 16.2pts (+62.2%)
  • 3 yr olds : 10/21 (47.6%) for 32.3pts (+153.8%)
  • Class 4 : 6/21 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+12.4%)
  • at 7/2 and shorter : 12/19 (63.2%) for 14.9pts (+78.4%)
  • over the 1m C&D : 6/19 (31.6%) for 12pts (+63%)
  • in handicaps : 5/12 (41.7%) for 30.5pts (+254.5%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 7/10 (70%) for 7.93pts (+79.3%)
  • John's only runner at the track that day : 4/10 (40%) for 12pts (+120%)
  • Frankie's only ride at the track that day : 3/3 9100%) for 2.48pts (+82.7%)
  • and John's only runner at the track & ridden by Frankie = 1/1 (100%) for 0.48pts (+48%)

And this simple stripped back approach is enough to satisfy me today...

...and reinforces the placing of...a 1pt win bet on Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Wednesday evening, although Ladbrokes were slightly better at 10/3  BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th June

HAMILTON – JUNE 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £197.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 29.9% units went through – 5/1 – 33/1 – 17/2 (11/4)

Race 2: 21.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 11/2 (8/13)

Race 3: 57.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 13/2

Race 4: 47.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 5: 46.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 28/1

Race 6: 45.8% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 9/2 – 14/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 3 (Berlios), 2 (Vallarta) & 7 (Merdon Castle)

Leg 2 (6.30): 3 (March For Men) & 4 (Mr Diamond)

Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Rosemay), 6 (Titus Bolt) & 5 (Granite City Doc)

Leg 4 (7.30): 3 (Mr Wagyu) & 6 (Cameo Star)

Leg 5 (8.00): 3 (Natajack), 7 (Colur Contrast) & 4 (Haymarket)

Leg 6 (8.30): 1 (Afandem) & 3 (Logi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.00: Although representing no value for money whatsoever, it’s difficult to ignore the claims of BERLIOS, especially from a Placepot perspective whilst others to consider in this amateur rider event (careful where you tread) include VALLARTA and MERDON CASTLE.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last decade, though other gold medallists included those returned at 40/1, 20/1 12/1 & 10/1.  That said, five of the last six market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

2/3—Dodgy Bob (good to firm & soft)

1/5—Mitchum (soft)

1/6—Picks Pinta (good to firm)

1/5—Gaelic Wizard (good to firm)

 

6.30: Diviner has at least won a race from three assignments thus far but it would be disappointing in the extreme if either MARCH FOR MEN and/or MR DIAMOND failed to finish ahead of Mark Johnston’s Wolverhampton scorer who has subsequently disappointed.  The relevant newcomers hail from the powerful yards of Tom Dascombe and Richard Fahey respectively and connections would be miffed to say the least if their youngsters failed to become involved in the finish of such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 favourite failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

7.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which definitely brings the likes of TITUS BOLT and GRANITE CITY DOC into the equation.  There has been overnight support for ROSEMAY however which adds interest to proceedings.  Ian Jardine’s Mayson filly has been well placed by the trainer and but for the negative weight trend in place, Joe Fanning’s mount would be a strong selection.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite via seven renewals to date.  That said, six of the nine market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/6—Falcon’s Fire (soft)

 

7.30: There will be worse outsiders on the card than Zumurud I’ll wager, one of five raiders on the card for Rebecca Bastiman whose ratio at the track this year stands at 3/9, stats which have produced a level stake profit thus far.  That all said, MR WAGYU commands plenty of respect, whilst the Placepot chance for CAMEO STAR is also there for all to see.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite duly obliged.

 

8.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which eliminate three horses from the field from my perspective if we take potential jockey ‘allowances’ into consideration.  At various positions in the market this morning, the trio which make most appeal consists of NATAJACK, COLOUR CONTRAST and HAYMARKET.

Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have secured five of the seven renewals thus far, with favourites coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  Six of the eight favourites finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/8—Haymarket (good)

1/14—Rioja Day (good to soft)

 

8.30: Whilst I bypassed one of Mark Johnston’s horses (Diviner) with a supposedly obvious chance earlier on the card, I will not desert Mark’s representative AFANDEM in this grade/company, especially with the Vale Of York gelding having attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the hat trick seeker LOGI.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Hamilton card.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Logi (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Zylan (good to firm)

7/33—Economic Crisis (3 x good to soft – 2 x soft – good & heavy)

5/21—Alexandrakollantai (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft – heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 7th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

201: £53.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.8% units went through – 8/1 & 1/2*

Race 2: 27.1% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 -16/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 & 7/2 (9/4)

Race 5: 87.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 9/4* - 6/1

Race 6: 54.3% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 11/4 – 16/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 3 (Heartwarming) & 9 (Satisfying)

Leg 2 (6.25): 7 (Manor Park), 2 (Sharja Silk) & 1 (Ghostwatch)

Leg 3 (7.00): 6 (George Villiers) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (7.35): 7 (Jack Regan), 3 (Infastructure) & 2 (Corgi)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 5 (8.05): 1 (Cross Counter) & 4 (Al Muffrih)

Leg 6 (8.40): 11 (Railport Dolly), 13 (Chantresse) & 5 (Fondest)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.55: To commence, I should point out that there are no course winners at Sandown this evening, just in case you thought I had forgotten to include the service today!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that it’s worth noting that HEARTWARMING was withdrawn from a race at Nottingham at the back end of last month on account of the soft ground, despite having been backed on the exchanges prior to being taken out of the contest.  Clive Cox looks sure to go ahead with his Showcasing filly here as she has no other entries at the time of writing, notwithstanding tonight’s ground which should just about be perfect for racing on the level.  SATISFYING is the only rival to be standing up against the projected favourite on the exchanges, with just threepenny and sixpenny bits around for ZAPLA.  That said, that is more than is being spent on Sir Michael Stoute’s Dubawi filly Vivionn who will surely need a distance of ground before beginning to show the best of her potential.  Against that however, we should observe that the dam (Giant’s Play) was only beaten ‘three parts’ at the first time of asking on Kempton’s all weather surface.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 1/3 favourite was beaten when securing a Placepot position, flanked by horses which were returned at 8/1 and 5/1.

 

6.25: A ‘dual purpose’ trainer (Anthony Honeyball) won the first running of this event twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Alan King to follow suit, with Alan proving so successful with three-year-old stayers in the making these last few years.  Alan saddles MANOR PARK here with his progressive Medicean gelding now stepping up two and a half furlong in trip, whereby nothing can be taken as read prior to flag fall.  Alan has proved himself to be a good judge at this level however and Martin Harley’s mount should be the one in the field to bustle up Charlie Appleby’s projected market leader GHOSTWATCH.  Not the only horse to have endured traffic problems at Chester last time out, GHOSTWATCH has been made favourite on three of his four assignments to date, only scoring on one occasion thus far.  The other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly is SHARJA SILK who was doing all his best work at the finish over twelve furlongs at Ascot the last day.  The additional quarter of a mile should certainly suit Roger Varian’s Dubawi colt.

Favourite factor: Last year’s biggest favourite casualty on the Placepot front occurred when the 6/5 jolly failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame in this event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

7.00: Although there is some each way support for BAMBASTIC coming in as light begins to appear in the sky over Bristol this morning, this race should chiefly concern GEORGE VILLIERS and MASHAHEER in a contest which is likely to produce several future winners (well worth recording).  The main pair are marginally listed in order of preference, though the market has already spoken up in favour of the latter named William Haggas representative.  That said, there was plenty of like about the win of GEORGE VILLIERS back in November at Kempton when shrugging off as many as seven rivals who all had chances in the last furlong.  ‘George’ led a long way from home and despite looking vulnerable when racing well wide of the far rail after the ‘cut away’, the Dubawi gelding showed great determination with the jockey not having to go for everything close home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leader finished nearer last than first (ninth of eleven contenders) when over 76% of the remaining Placepot units in leg three went up in smoke.

 

7.35: I tend to find that I have better luck with Amanda Perrett’s runners at each way prices whereby I am overlooking the chance of Desert Path in favour of JACK REGAN, INFASTRUCTURE and CORGI in a typically fascinating Sandown event.  There is no surprise that this race has already lost its original ‘dead eight’ stats as Sandown hosts more six/seven runners races (under both codes) than any other track in the land, or so my experience tells me, invariably leading to great Placepot puzzles on the majority of occasions.

Favourite factor: Over half of the live units made it through to the penultimate leg twelve months ago, despite the (9/4) market leader finishing out with the washing.  The fact that the second and third favourites filled another ‘short field frame’ helped the majority of ‘Potters’ out twelve months ago.

 

8.05: Another classic encounter of the Sandown kind, albeit I am playing on words to a fashion with CROSS COUNTER making plenty of appeal given the ‘8.6’ quote on the exchanges overnight.  What has to be taken into account however, is that Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old is asked to give seven pounds to AL MUFFRIH whereby the top weight will only be backed by yours truly from a win and a Placepot perspective.  10-1 is a heavy burden for one so young, which is why I will probably pass up the each way option as I cannot believe that William Buick will be hard on the Teofilo gelding if his chance of winning the race has gone.  I can’t help myself putting Charlie’s raider in the mix though, alongside the Sea The Stars foal AL MUFFRIH.  Elwazir also has plenty of scope for improvement holding definite Placepot claims.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

8.40: Only three-year-olds can be seriously taken into account in these mixed vintage handicaps at this time of year, especially in the case of a ‘fillies’ only event.  CHANTRESSE is a northern challenger to consider here (see favourite stats below) given that the somewhat unusual nine furlong trip could play to her strengths.  RAILPORT DOLLY is another in the field that could benefit for this type of distance, whilst the Placepot chance for FONDEST is there for all to see, albeit the slightly cramped 9/4-5/2 odds on offer at the time of writing dilute confidence in backing the James Fanshawe raider, albeit the trainer has been back among the winners of late after a lean period.  Just one winner in May via 35 runners should emphasize my point.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (northern trained) 9/4 favourite duly obliged for the Mark Johnston team and plenty of Mark’s followers.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 16th May

YORK – MAY 16

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £310.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £32.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2015: £3,142.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,860.60 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2013: £305.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £3,044.20 (6 favourites: No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,943.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,662.73 - 45 favourites - 15 winners - 5 placed - 25 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 20.6% units went through – 12/1 – 7/1 – 20/1 – 25/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 37.2% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 6/1** - 14/1 – 8/1 (6/1**)

Race 3: 12.1% of the remaining units went through – 14/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

Race 4: 82.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* & 12/1

Race 5: 69.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 16/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 44.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 4/1 – 12/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 6 (Hamanda) & 7 (Now Children)

Leg 2 (2.55): 16 (Private Matter), 8 (Golden Apollo), 9 (El Hombre) & 12 (Orion’s Bow)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Tasleet) & 1 (Harry Angel)

Leg 4 (4.05): 6 (Highgarden) & 1 (Ceilidhs Dream)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Clubbable), 12 (Cavatina), 6 (Queen’s Sargent) & 3 (Zap)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Charming Kid) & 7 (World Order)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Four-year-olds have won the last five contests, whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won ten of the last fourteen renewals.  Four horses qualify this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be HAMADA and NOW CHILDREN ahead of Tuff Rock and Contango.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty seven market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes six winning favourites.

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals, confirming their ‘recent’ dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result seven years ago via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Twelve of the last thirteen winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Relevant horses PRVATE MATTER (drawn 3/19), GOLDEN APOLLO (16) and EL HOMBRE (14) form my speculative ‘short list’ on this occasion.  If vintage representatives are to be denied this time around, ORION’S BOW (9) might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 28 favourites have secured Placepot positions, with just three favourites prevailing from a win perspective during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result offered first):

8-2-1-16 (16 ran-soft)

5-9-1-4 (18 ran-good)

11-14-4-1 (17 ran-good)

20-5-19-14 (20 ran-soft)

18-3-5 (15 ran-good to soft)

15-6-18-7 (19 ran-good)

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)

11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)

15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)

12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

13-7-12 (13 ran-good)

7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)

1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)

2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

York record of the six course winners in the second race on the card:

1/6—Terentum Star (good)

1/6—Flying Pursuit (good to soft)

2/10—Out Do (2 x good)

1/3—Golden Apollo (good to firm)

1/4—Classic Seniority (good)

2/4—Dark Defender (good & good to soft)

 

3.30: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 13 of the last 19 renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 8-5 during the period.  It might prove foolish to suggest that last year’s 14/1 winner TASLEET only scored on account of the soft ground, even though his two course victories tell us that moisture in the turf holds no worries for connections.  Equally however, the William Haggas raider has finished in the first two in three of his five assignments on good to firm (including one victory), whereby there should be no excuse on account of today’s conditions.  All that said, HARRY ANGEL is supposedly fit and ready for this event and has “strengthened up” tremendously well over the winter.  Unfortunately, we heard similar words for the connections of Eminent last week at Chester before investors suffered first degree burns on the Roodee.  Outsiders have a really good record in this event but I’m struggling to nominate a winner from that sector, even though Sir Dancealot remains a horse of undoubted potential.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last twenty years, though just three of the other sixteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.  Eight of the last twelve winners have scored at 40/1-25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

9-12-3 (12 ran-soft)

4-9-6 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (15 ran-good)

4-2-5 (13 ran-soft)

18-15-4 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-12-3 (13 ran-good)

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)

1-11-6 (12 ran-good)

3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-1-13 (17 ran-good)

2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)

5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)

8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)

3-5-4 (10 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Sir Dancealot (good)

2/3—Tasleet (Good to soft & soft)

 

4.05 ('Musidora'): John Gosden has won five of the last six renewals when represented and John has offered the green light to his Nathanial filly HIGHGARDEN who might win this ‘trial’ with something to spare, especially when considering that Frankie’s mount is the only Gosden runner on today’s card.  It’s also worth noting that on the one occasion when John did not win the ‘Musidora’ in recent times, his raider (Woodland Aria) made amends next time out at odds of 5/4.  I invariably have plenty of respect of Peter Chapple-Hyam’s raiders when they take in races towards the top end of the events on the calendar whereby the chance of LUBINKA is respected, albeit I slightly prefer CEILIDHS DREAM as the main threat to the selection.  Give And Take is another decent filly, though one win from four assignments is not the best ratio with which to go to war in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include seven winners.

 

4.35: Richard Fahey has landed this event three times in the last nine years and two of his three entries boast Placepot claims at double figures from my viewpoint, namely CLUBBABLE and ZAP.  Horses from the other end of the market have a terrific record however (see stats immediately below), whereby Kevin Ryan’s market leaders COMMANDER HEN and QUEEN’S SARGENT are respected alongside CAVATINA.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed via just ten contests thus far, though the other three market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.  The winners offer level stake favourite profits of 22 points which is something to behold!

York record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Zap (good to soft)

1/2—International Man (good to firm)

 

5.05: There is not a lot of money queuing up on the exchanges for any of the contenders if truth be told which gets the red lights flashing, though the likes of CHARMING KID and WORLD ORDER should land the Placepot dividend for us if we were live going into the final leg of our favourite bet.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites to date have missed out on toteplacepot positions (six winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (nine years ago).  The other twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-2-1 (8 ran-soft)

3-9-6 (9 ran-good)

1 (4 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

1-5-2 (8 ran-good)

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)

5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.55 Wolverhampton : Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (in touch, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

We kick off the new month via Tuesday's...

4.15 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 5,  7f Fillies Handicap (4yo+) on Good To Soft worth£3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is in decent form right now, having finished 112 in her last three outings and was only beaten by three quarters of a length when last seen 33 days ago. That was over 8.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton off a mark of 62.

She now drops back in trip and jockey Nicola Currie is back in the saddle (she didn't ride LTO, but did ride the two recent wins) and she takes 5lbs off a mark already 3lbs lower for the switch back to turf, so we're effectively 8lbs better off and a shorter trip! So, providing she handles the conditions today, she could potentially be very well treated at the weights.

She's only won twice in her career so far, but she's 2 from 6 at 7/8 furlongs and 2/2 under Nicola Currie. Both wins have come this year, in fields of 8-11 runners whilst wearing cheekpieces and one win was at this Class 5 level.

And the class of the race is quite pertinent, as her trainer Mick Appleby is a dab hand at winning such contests and is profitable to follow in Class 5 Flat handicaps with 55 winners from 443 (12.4% SR) providing followers with 420.9pts profit at a 95% ROI since 2010 and with today's race in mind, the following dozen angles are also profitable for those not wanting to back all 443 qualifiers...

  • in races worth less than £4,000 : 52/418 (12.4%) for 422.65pts (+101.1%)
  • those beaten by further than a neck LTO are 52/381 (13.7%) for 462.45pts (+121.4%)
  • those rated (OR) 56 to 70 are 43/353 (12.2%) for 446pts (+126.4%)
  • those who last ran 11 to 90 days earlier are 43/307 (14%) for 453.75pts (+147.8%)
  • those racing in midweek (Tues-Thurs) are 34/222 (15.3%) for 448.6pts (+202.1%)
  • those racing over trips of 6 to 9 furlongs are 27/202 (13.4%) for 386.8pts (+191.5%)
  • those now rated (OR) 2 to 6lbs lower than LTO are 17/120 (14.2%) for 388.8pts (+324%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 19/100 (19%) for 69.12pts (+69.1%)
  • those dropping in trip by 1 to 2 furlongs are 14/78 (17.9%) for 73.48pts (+94.2%)
  • those racing at this 7f trip are 8/51 (15.7%) for 53.25pts (+104.4%)
  • those ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs are 6/44 (13.6%) for 25.47pts (+57.9%)
  • and those sent here to Yarmouth are 5 from 38 (13.2%) for 20.66pts (+54.4%)

You can, of course, then combine some of the above to make micros for yourself, but I'll leave it here for now...

...by placing...a 1pt win bet on Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 24th April

BRIGHTON – APRIL 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £56.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 32.5% units went through – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 67.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 9/4* - 10/3

Race 3: 47.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* & 9/2

Race 4: 43.7% of the remaining units went through –8/1 – 13/2 – 3/1 (5/2)

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 6/1 – 13/8*

Race 6: 34.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* & 20/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (4.15): 4 (Baltic Prince) & 3 (Tigerwolf)

Leg 2 (4.50): 3 (It’s the Only Way), 6 (Al Manhalah) & 7 (Knockabout Queen)

Leg 3 (5.25): 7 (Andalusite), 3 (Art Echo) & 5 (Madrinho)

Leg 4 (5.55): 6 (Prince Jai), 3 (Violet’s Lads) & 10 (Joyful Dream)

Leg 5 (6.30): 7 (Becca Campbell), 8 (Let’s Be Happy) & 6 (Poetic Force)

Leg 6 (7.05): 10 (The Secret’s Out) & 2 (Hint Of Grey)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

4.15: BALTIC PRINCE is the each way call in the contest from my viewpoint, even though TIGERWOLF has a favourite’s chance in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Trainer Tony Carroll (BALTIC PRINCE) is on a great run just now, boasting a 40% strike rate via six recent winners, gold medallists which have produce 34 points of level stake profits during the period.

Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders secured Placepot positions (one winner) via three renewals.

Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Ocean Temptress (good to soft)

1/8—Swiss Cross (good to firm)

1/3—Baltic Prince (good)

4/25—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

4.50: KNOCKABOUT QUEEN was as green as grass at the first time of asking and can only do better for in form Mick Channon, albeit I was expecting the Sixties Icon filly to be targeted at a more conventional track than Brighton where the gradients can catch seasoned thoroughbreds out on occasions.  That taken into account, I will hold back from a win perspective, whilst adding IT’S THE ONLY WAY and AL MANHALAH into my Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.

 

5.25: Not the easiest ‘short field’ event to assess, with course and distance winners ART ECHO and ANDALUSITE being the first to horses short listed. John Gallagher saddles the latter named raider with the trainer boasting 24 winners at the track in eighteen year of having held a license.  John’s next best haul is ten (Goodwood) whereby you can detect that this must be his favourite venue.  ART ECHO won on soft ground when successful here, which probably means that I will add MADRINHO into the Placepot mix. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year when the 7/2 market leader snared a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.

Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card.

1/1—Sayesse (good to firm)

4/16—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/2—Art Echo (soft)

3/7—Andalusite (2 x good to firm & good)

 

5.55: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 10-6 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (21 up for grabs) gained via seven renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared six of the seven contests to date.  I’m taking a trio of vintage representatives to get us through to the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, namely PRINCE JAI, VIOLETS LADS and JOYFUL DREAM.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/1, 7/2 & 11/4) winners.

Record of the six course winners in the field:

1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)

1/4—Hidden Stash (good)

2/7—Indus Valley (good & good to firm)

3/13—Live Dangrously (2 x good to soft & good)

3/26—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)

1/9—Ettie Hart (good to form)

 

6.30I’m struggling to put lines though the names of the two course winners here, despite both runners on offer at double figure prices at the time of writing.  BECCA CAMPBELL (Eve Johnson Houghton) and LET’S BE HAPPY (Ali Stronge) look sure to give supporters a decent run for their collective monies, nominating   POETIC FORCE as the potential joker in the pack as far as our outsiders are concerned.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

3/7—Becca Campbell (3 x good)

1/3—Let’s Be Happy (good to firm)

 

7.05: I have only left myself two options for the competitive looking Placepot finale but that said, the likes of THE SECRET’S OUT (should revert to consistent form now that he has had his pipe opener for the campaign) and HINT OF GREY (strong local contender for Gary Moore) can do the Placepot business for us in the lucky last.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Brighton card.

Record of the three course winners in the line up:

1/2—Hint Of Grey (good)

2/15—Solveig’s Song (good to form & good to soft)

2/10—With Approval (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 24th November

EXETER - OCTOBER 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.00 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 7 (Jaunty Inflight), 8 (Theatre Stage) & 12 (Lady Longshot)

Leg 2 (2.50): 8 (Kapcorse) & 11 (Lord Duveen)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Vieux Bleu), 8 (Zephyros Bleu), 4 (Duelling Banjos) & 2 (Alvarado)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Midnight Glory), 2 (Midnight Request) & 8 (Braw Angus)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Market Road) & 10 (Not At All)

Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Yanworth) & 5 (Sternrubin)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Miss P Fuller may not be a name we are familiar with immediately, though it’s worth reporting that she has ridden 21 winners under rules whereby my immediate negative look at the booking aboard JAUNTY INFLIGHT has changed.  Having ridden six winners for the underrated trainer Chris Down via a 21% strike rate, it’s also worth noting the partnership has produced 23 points of level stake profit into the bargain.  Evan Williams (THEATRE STAGE) saddles his first runner of the season at Exeter and I was a little surprised to find that Evan does not raid this venue as often as you might think.  Evan averages just eight runners a season of late, though those figures include eight winners (20% strike rate) which have produced black figures (+3) as far as level stake investment are concerned. In terms of value for money, LADY LONGSHOT is preferred to Get Ready Freddy in making up my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals (including eight of the last fifteen), and with KAPCORSE (Paul Nicholls) and LORD DUVEEN (Philip Hobbs) hailing from their ranks on this occasion, the trend looks set to be extended.  I understand the reason behind siding with Lalor by the trade press correspondent but the comment about Nicholls/Hobbs usually winning this event is underplayed in the extreme, with the said trainers having won eight renewals between them during the last decade.  Indeed, Philip Hobbs has secured three of the last four contests and five in total during the last ten years!  I have no problem with people selecting another horse that I am ‘swerving’ but ‘scant reporting’ relating to major facts is not offering readers a decent insight into relevant races, win, lose or draw.  However, I do appreciate the potential of Lalor (and Onefortheroadtom) which makes this year’s renewal a potentially exciting race to witness.  I would be erring myself if I did not draw your attention to the great record of market leaders in the race listed below.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 14 of the last 19 renewals, whilst second favourites have ensured that bookmakers have endured a torrid time by snaring four of the other five contests!

 

3.20: Don’t be at all surprised if old ALVARADO runs a reasonable race here at the first time of asking this season, especially as there have been bits and pieces of money for him on the exchanges overnight.  I have joined in the fun at 20/1 at the time of writing, albeit to extremely moderate (each way) stakes.  I can’t believe that the current exchange prices of 12/1 & 10/1 with the main two companies will be maintained though that said, four bookmakers have shortened up the price to 14/1.  VIEUX LILLE, ZEPHYROS BLEU and DUELLING BANGOS are (arguably) more obvious winners in the line up.

Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the three (4/1-11/4-9/4) favourites thus far.

Records of course winners in the third race on the card:

3/4—Vieux Lille (2 x heavy & good)

1/1—Gingili (good)

3/10—Umberto D’Olivate (2 x soft & good)

1/6—Bindon Mill (soft)

1/2—Bears Rails (good to sodft)

 

3.50: It might prove to be churlish in the extreme to ignore the positive market moves for MIDNIGHT GLORY which seem to be gaining momentum as I write this column.  You can certainly forget about the 7/1 quote in the trade press as 4/1 is solid right across the board at the time of writing.  The other ‘midnight’ raider MIDNIGHT REQUEST boasts each way/Placepot claims from my viewpoint, possibly alongside BRAW ANGUS.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 favourite finished out of the frame (exact science) in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the terms short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/5—Midnight Request (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/7—Shoofly Milly (soft)

 

4.20: Three horses appear to stand out from the crowd, with overnight support coming for EDDY and MARKET ROAD, with preference offered to the latter named Even Williams representative.  This is especially the case as soft ground would seemingly be against Eddy.  I will opt for NOT AT ALL accordingly to add to Evan’s representative in terms of the Placepot permutation, though nothing could be further from my thoughts in having a bet in this contest from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Eddy (good)

 

4.50: Plenty of potential investors will be pleased that YANWORTH makes his chasing debut here before the ’10 to follow’ competition starts this winter.  So many people would have otherwise included Alan King’s raider in the hope that he took to fences whereas now, they should have a clearer perspective following this event.  Only STERNRUBIN can have any chance against the favourite and even then, at least two serious blunders might have to ensue to give the Philip Hobbs entry any chance, particularly under these projected soft conditions.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, albeit just two renewals have been contested.  One Placepot position has been snared thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Sternbuin (good)

1/1—Yanworth (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

5 runners—Colin Tizzard (1/4 – loss of 1 point)

4—Philip Hobbs (1/3 +4)

4—Jonjo O’Neill (No previous runners this season)

4—Jeremy Scott (0/1)

4—Evan Williams (No previous runners)

3—Pail Henderson (No previous runners)

3—Alan King (0/2)

3—David Pipe (1/4 +7)

2—Kim Bailey (0/2)

2—Ron Barr (0/1)

2—Vic Dartnall (0/2)

2—Chris Down (1/23 +19)

2—Johnny Farrelly (No previous runners)

2—John Flint (0/1)

2—Jimmy Frost (0/1)

2—Harry Fry (1/2—slight loss)

2—Sue Gardner (3/7 +14)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nick Gifford (No previous runners)

2—Grace Harris (0/3)

2—Tom Lacey (1/1 +2)

2—Seamus Mullins (0/1)

2—Fergal O’Brien (No previous runners)

2—Dan Skelton (0/2)

2—Tim Vaughan (0/3)

2—Richard Woollacott (0/1)

+ 23 trainers with just one runner at the meeting

89 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Yarmouth: £ £211.00 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Kempton: £33.11 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £194.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 16th October

WINDSOR - OCTOBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £68.50 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 7 (La Belle Maison), 5 (Adulate) & 4 (Aquadabra)

Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Garrick) & 5 (Sparte Quercus)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (All Out), 5 (Desert Spirit) & 4 (Convinced)

Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Clef), 9 (Sandy Shores) & 4 (Killay)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Zeelander) & 6 (Miss Liguria)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Paddy Power), 13 (Abiento) & 7 (Buccaneers Vault)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four of the six Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which include both (16/1 & 7/1) winners.  It’s (arguably) worth noting that Richard Fahey saddles more runners here at Windsor today (five in total) that he has done all season, whereby LA BELLE MAISON might have enough about her to win at the fourth time of asking in a two-year-old handicap which should not prove difficult to secure.  Paul Hanagan has made the long trip down to Windsor which is also worth noting, given that the stable has 13 runners spread across the country this afternoon.  The pick of opposition from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights (albeit via a brief trend) should prove to be ADULATE and AQUADABRA, given that any value in the price of Global Exceed has long since departed.

Favourite factor: Both favourites to date have finished out with the washing.

 

2.30: Three and four-year-olds have equally split the eight renewals of this event to date, whilst five of the last six winners carried 8-13 to more to victory. John Gosden’s Galileo colt GARRICK should follow up his debut Newcastle victory successfully if adapting to turf.  It took time for the penny to drop at Gosforth Park but distancing himself from the runner up to good effect inside the final furlong, GARRICK made a pleasing enough debut to suggest that another win is on the cards in this grade/company.  SPARTE QUERCUS has offered plenty of consistent form thus far and we can expect Ed Dunlop’s raider to gain another Placepot position, probably without winning on this occasion.  The reserve nomination is award to the only course winner in the race, namely Grapevine.

Favourite factor: Level stake investors would have gained five points to date by backing the market leaders in this event. Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) thus far.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Grapevine (good)

 

3.00: Richard Hannon’s only two runners on the card clash in the same race, with his debut Nottingham winner ALL OUT joined by stable companion CONVINCED who is an Invincible Spirit newcomer.  Richard should snare a Placepot position at the very least between this pair, though I will add DESERT TRIP from David Menuisier’s yard for ‘insurance’ purposes.  David does well with his small string of runners with plenty of his juveniles having shown ability this term.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.  That said, you might like to look at the following facts because as far as I can determine, this is (in principle) the same race as has been the case for many years, given that the powers that be only deem this to be a new event because of the novice prefix which I have spouted on about for far too long this season.  It is (simply) your choice if you believe my figures or their non-existent ones! 11 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period, whilst eight of the last thirteen contests have fallen the way of market leaders.  The last fourteen winners have produced a top priced gold medallist of 10/1.

 

3.30: All four winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 via three renewals which in theory eliminates eight of the ten horses in the handicap.  The pick of the two qualifiers on this occasion appears to be the fast ground course winner SANDY SHORES, though the one exception to my trend with a chance here is CLEF who saddled by the astute Richard Fahey who rarely misses a trick.  Richard saddled last year’s winner off a similar mark and with three of the four contests having fallen to three-year-olds, I expect the ratio to be extended here.  That all said, Eve Johnson Houghton has enjoyed a fabulous season and the chance for KILLAY to secure a Placepot position is there for all to see despite the negative weight trend.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one 5/1 winner) via four contests thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Fastnet Spin (soft)

1/6—Sandy Shores (good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

4.00: Nine of the thirteen runners carry 8-13 or more, as have the last seven winners of this contest.  The last six runners saddled by Roger Varian have been beaten which is a rare (negative) stat to offer these days as far as the popular trainer is concerned.  Roger should put that run to an end here with his only runner on the card, namely ZEELANDER who looks to be tailor made for his first attempt in a handicap.  My eye is also drawn to MISS LIGURIA who is given a chance to put a beaten favourite effort behind her at potentially rewarding odds.  The general 14/1 quote this morning make plenty of appeal albeit from a win perspective, ZEELANDER is the undoubted call.

Favourite factor: Two winning favourites have been recorded during the last decade, with nine of the ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 10/1.

 

4.30:  Four-year-olds have won six of the last 13 renewals and it defied belief that there was only one vintage representative twelve months ago! Upwards and onward by informing that there are three such creatures potentially facing the starter today, the pick of which appears to be PADDY POWER. Ed Walker saddles another each way type on the card in ABIENTO (Miss Liguria in the previous race is also a stable contender at the meeting), whilst BUCCANEERS VAULT completes my trio against the remaining twelve entries.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via 20 renewals, whilst six other market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

1/1—Abiento (good to firm

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday followed by their ratios at the track this season + profit/losses accrued:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/4)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/18)

3—Andrew Balding (3/25 – loss of 9 points)

3—Luca Cumani (0/4)

3—David Evans (5/66 – loss of 34 points)

2—Mick Channon (1/22 – loss of 18 points)

2—Charlie Fellows (2/13 +1)

2—John Gosden (4/15 – loss of 3 points)

2—Richard Hannon (14/63 +5)

2—Charlie Hills (3/25 – loss of 7 points)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/1)

2—George Margarson (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—David Menuisier (No previous runners this season)

2—Paul Midgley (No previous runners this season)

2—Gary Moore (0/18)

2—Amanda Perrett (1/13 – loss of 4 points)

2—Brendan Powell (1/20 – loss of 7 points)

2—John Ryan (0/6)

2—Marcus Tregoning (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Ed Walker (8/27 +9)

+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

93 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £174.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Yarmouth: £67.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st September

PONTEFRACT – SEPTEMBER 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £104.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 5 (Malitia) & 3 (Harrogate)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Election Day) & 2 (Briyouni)

Leg 3 (3.25): 8 (Ludorum), 5 (Azzir) & 1 (Kharbetation)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Kassia), 5 (Tirania) & 2 (Clon Coulis)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Chebsey Beau), 5 (Transpennine Star) & 4 (Tyrell)

Leg 6 (5.05): 7 (Mesbarr) & 6 (Heron)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Going projection: Good to soft

Radar: Suggests that moderate rain will reach Pontefract by lunchtime

 

 

2.20: The favourite stats below make for compulsive reading though something might have to give here with layers offering 5/2 (thereabouts) the field on this occasion.  Either way, it would be churlish in the extreme to overlook the Placepot chances of MALITIA and HARROGATE, even though they are drawn wide in stalls eight and thirteen respectively.  All that might do is increase their prices which given previous results in this contest, could prove disastrous for bookmakers.  We will have to wait and see with bated breath!

Favourite factor: This is one of the strongest races for favourites throughout the entire year at Pontefract, with seven of the last ten market leaders having won. Indeed, the biggest priced winner during the last decade was recorded at just 10/3.

 

2.50: All ten winners during the study period carried 8-10 or more to victory, statistics which eliminate three horses in the handicap from my enquiries, one of which is via a jockey claim. ELECTION DAY looks the safest Placepot call, whilst noting each way support overnight for BRIYOUNI who will not start at the trade press price of 14/1 in all probability.  8/1 could be the nearer the mark about Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old representative, albeit faster ground would have offered additional confidence according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last six years.  All ten winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the second event:

1/2—Echo Of Lightning (soft)

1/2—Mt Cool Cash (good to soft)

2/9—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

 

3.25: There is not too much to report regarding overnight interest in the race, though 14/1 looks a little too big about the chance of KHARBETATION at the time of writing.  David O’Meara saddles six runners at the track and though posting the odd score now and then, the popular trainer will be desperate for more consistent winners by now after a really ordinary season by David’s high standards.  LUDORUM is by far the last exposed runner in the field and warrants plenty of respect accordingly, arguably alongside course and distance winner AZZIR who could also go close on the best of his form, especially if the rainclouds swerve Pontefract Park this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have snared Placepot positions by winning their respective events.  The other pair of market leaders finished well down the field.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/6—Save The Bees (good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/2—Azzir (good)

1/1—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

 

4.00: Three-year-olds have recorded six victories in the last ten years, stats which include three of the last four winners of this Class2 handicap for fillies.  Boasting a course record of 2/2 to her name here at Pontefract, it is hardly surprising that KASSIA have been the subject of each way support since the layers chalked up overnight prices for this contest.  Mick Channon’s filly carries an additional four pounds off the relevant mark which looks fair enough given the relevant ease of her victory in the race twelve months ago.  I have to adhere to my vintage stats obviously, offering the likes of TIRANIAS and CLON COULIS (preferred in that order) as the main threats this time around.

Favourite factor: Four winning favourites to report during the last decade, with eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2.  That said, the two winners were returned at 33/1 & 16/1.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/2—Kassia (good & good to firm)

2/6—Sandra’s secret (good & good to firm)

 

4.30: Here we go (yet) again with the ever present staying contest on a Pontefract card which is just about the only negative vibe I report relating to the lovely west Yorkshire venue.  Regular readers will know that I really don’t like these glorified ‘greyhound races’ in which the runners shake hooves as they enter the stalls, before deciding which one of them is going to win today.  Believing that I am in a minority of one, I will offer up CHEBSEY BEAU, TRANSPENNINE STAR and TYRELL against their ten rivals before retiring to the bar.

Favourite factor: Two successful clear market leaders have been registered during the last decade alongside two joint favourites.  All ten winners during the study period scored at a top price of 11/1.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

1/2—Almost Gemini (heavy)

1/4—Bulas Belle (good to firm)

1/1—Wordiness (good)

1/5—La Fritillaire (good to soft)

2/18—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)

2/19—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)

 

5.05: The three obvious runners here have all been drawn which adds interest to proceedings.  That said, before last year’s trap one raider scored, five of the previous six winners had scored from stalls 6/7/8 whereby connections of MESBARR and HERON have cause for optimism.  Hat’s Off To Larry is drawn widest of all in the ten stall and at around 6/4 at the time of writing, I’m willing to oppose Mick Channon’s representative on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders have scored during the last decade during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 6/1.  For the record, the other two gold medallists were returned at 50/1 & 10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David O’Meara (8/35 +9)

5—Richard Fahey (5/62 +4)

4—Michael Dods (1/21 – loss of 4 points)

3—Mick Channon (1/8 – loss of 5 points)

3—Roger Fell (0/10)

3—Richard Guest (2/12 +19)

3—Micky Hammond (2/22 – loss of 4 points)

2—David Barron (0/5)

2—Robert Cowell (No previous runners this season)

2—Tim Easterby (7/32 +9)

2—Les Eyre (1/9 – loss of 4 points)

2—James Given (2/12 – slight loss)

2—Anthony McCain (No previous runners this season)

2—Karen McLintock (1/4 +37)

2—Amy Murphy (0/1)

2—Jason Ward (0/2)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £1,290.10

Yarmouth: £7,407.20

Chelmsford: £8.60