Stat of the Day, 21st August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.20 York : Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Held up in mid-division, not clear run and switched sharply left inside final 2f, 6th and one pace towards finish) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.45 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG the 10-runner, Group 2, Gimcrack Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £56,710 to the winner...


We start with the racecard...

...that shows a horse running well, for a yard in good recent form and one that has done well at York over the years. Our runner is well placed on the Geegeez SR ratings and I'd say a low draw would be be advantageous today.

Our 2yr old colt has been a runner-up in back to back Gr2 efforts this summer so far and will aim to go one better here and I'd hope/expect that his experiences at this level will stand him in good stead, but it's the trainer's record that I'm basing the bet upon today.

If you click the trainer form button below the horse's name (I've highlighted it in red), you'll see how William Haggas has performed in the last 30 days and also here at York in the last 1 and 5 years, as highlighted by 30, C1 and C5, so I won't insult your intelligence by running you through those numbers, but I will add that... at the Ebor meeting since 2015, William Haggas' runners sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 4/1 (where we'll surely end up today) are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 16.2pts (+101.2% ROI) at an A/E of 1.89 and whilst this is a small-ish sample size, it does include a surprisingly large number of relevant angles at play in today's contest, such as...

  • 7/10 (70%) for 18.06pts (+180.6%) in non-handicaps
  • 7/10 (70%) for 17.6pts (+176%) at 20-45 dslr
  • 6/10 (60%) for 14.75pts (+147.5%) in fields of 7-13 runners
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 15.97pts (+177.5%) with male runners
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.85pts (+173.2%) at Class 1
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 12.51pts (+156.4%) with 2 yr olds
  • 4/5 (80%) for 12.58pts (+251.5%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 3/5 (60%) for 8.52pts (+170.3%) at Gr 2
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.22pts (+144.5%) over this 6f C&D
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 7.81pts (+260.3%) with LTO runners-up

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG as was available at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race... here for the betting on the 2.45 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!