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York Placepot Picks, 24th August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

Another five out of six day yesterday, and another day where I was left scratching my head at the race which let us down. I couldn't have had the first two at all...

Lots of rain means lots of non-runners today, and a change of going to soft, which might become heavy soon enough. Perfect conditions for crafting a contrarian placepot wager!

2.05 - Leg 1: We start with the Listed Rose Of York Stakes over seven furlongs. Four absentees so far bring us down to six runners, and two places. Sirius Prospect is the one that will appreciate the rain the most: he won in this grade over six soft furlongs back in 2011, and has plenty of placed form on soggy to back that up. He'd been in the doldrums somewhat before a win on his penultimate start, and had a horror draw in the Betfred Mile last time. Dropped back in trip and on ground he enjoys, he's a big chance today.

On B, I'll risk the Fahey pair, Switcher and Fort Bastion. Both have form with give, and both are capable of more than they've shown lately.

Current favourite, Rex Imperator, is a very nice horse but he surely doesn't want it this slow, and if he goes off jolly could take a fair amount of non-runner cash out of the pool with him.

A - 6 (Sirius Prospect)
B - 2 (Fort Bastion), 9 (Switcher)

2.40 - Leg 2: The Melrose Stakes, and I know Tony will be gutted that St Leger aspirant, Great Hall, is a non-runner because of the ground. He's joined by four other defectors, leaving a field of eleven and three places. The trio with winning form on the ground are Mister Impatience, Dashing Star and Divergence. Mister Impatience is clear pick on form of the trio, but has plenty of weight to lug as a consequence. He'd previously won two soft ground races by a combined fifteen lengths (!), and is an obvious A play.

Havana Cooler ran second on debut at a huge price on soft ground and, by Hurricane Run, should be fine on this sort of loose terrain. He's progressive and has Ryan Moore steering for the first time.

A - 2 (Mister Impatience), 7 (Havana Cooler)

3.15 - Leg  3: Seven run in the Group 2 Gimcrack, a race that is always hard to solve and more so this year with a number of unknowns on deep ground. The one known commodity on the surface, and with Group race form is Parbold. Saayerr's trainer, Willie Haggas, was less than confident on The Morning Line this morning about the ground for his horse, who is the Richmond Stakes winner.

Wilshire Boulevard represents Ballydoyle and he ought to go in the ground, though it's a bit of a punt. Likewise Astaire, for whom this is a step up (no pun intended), though he has taken solid support.

My Catch won a nice little Group 3 in France last time, and could lead here; and I don't think Justice Day is out of it either. Very tricky, and I'm spreading out and looking for a result.

A - 6 (Parbold)
B - 2 (Astaire), 4 (Justice Day), 5 (My Catch), 7 (Wilshere Boulevard)

3.50 - Leg 4: The Ebor. But a gettable one, with a glut of non-runners. Number Theory and Opinion will both enjoy the ground, and have touches of class. Irish raider, Ted Veale, will love the ground and the trip, and is in form. He could win if not knackered from a run just three days ago.

Oriental Fox is a stout German bred, by Lomitas, and was third in a Listed event at Baden Baden earlier in his career on soft. He's been running well and if you forgive his Goodwood run, he's been very consistent. Genzy drops down in class and is quite attractively weighted over a trip he should love. He has won on soft before, and makes B.

A - 4 (Opinion), 16 (Ted Veale)
B - 2 (Number Theory), 8 (Oriental Fox), 10 (Genzy)

4.25 - Leg 5: The favourite, Outer Space, is a non-runner now, so two places between six remaining contenders. No soft ground form on show, but Mecca's Angel did win at Southwell - a deep testing track - and by twelve lengths to boot. The down side is that that win was in Class 6, and today she's in a Class 1 Listed race. That's a fair old leap in class!

The ground is a question mark with all of the rest, and Excel's Beauty arguably sets the form standard on her second to Wind Fire in a Newbury Listed race. That one ran third in the Group 2 Lowther, having previously chased home No Nay Never at Royal Ascot. A.

On the basis of cluelessness, I'd love to add the other two non-rags to B, but we've got to take a chance somewhere!

A - 7 (Excel's Beauty), 8 (Mecca's Angel)

5.00 - Leg 6: And so to leg six, a ten furlong handicap where eleven remain standing at time of writing. The soft ground horses are Charles Camoin and Spirit Of The Law, and both are within spitting distance of their last winning handicap marks. Sennockian Star is very high in the weights now, but has been so consistent that it's impossible to rule out another placed effort. And Forgotten Hero is one that could just go well at a big price, especially with Spencer at the wheel.

A - 3 (Charles Camoin), 9 (Spirit Of The Law)
B - 6 (Sennockian Star), 10 (Forgotten Hero), 12 (Hi There)

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Just A's - 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 bets

All picks - 3 x 2 x 5 x 5 x 2 x 5 = 1500 bets (not recommended!!!)

Ticket builder optimized perm - see below.

York Ebor placepot picks

York Ebor placepot picks

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York Placepot Picks, 23rd August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

We about broke even yesterday, with the pot paying very little (£47.60), alas. Es Que Love was a big blow, with Dettori dropping his hands and getting passed for fourth place by a horse with loads of placepot money on it (Frog Hollow). That meant instead of having double lines in a good result, we had single lines in a bad result. Thanks Frankie.

To day three on the Knavesmire, and perhaps it's our turn today... then again, with two seven runner fields and four huge fields, maybe not!

1.55 - Leg 1: Sixteen declared for this, and already a non-runner bringing us down to three places, of course. This is one handicap that has generally gone the way of Newmarket rather than Yorkshire, and they again have a strong hand with Winterlude and Gospel Choir heading the betting. Both have solid chances, with a single knock against each: Winterlude is stepping up a quarter mile and may not stay, while Gospel Choir hasn't run for a year (but won first time up last term).

They make the A ticket, as does Kiama Bay, who was second in this two years ago and for whom the heavy overnight rain will have been a blessing. In a brave-ish opening, I'm taking that trio against the field.

A - 1 (Gospel Choir), 11 (Kiama Bay), 13 (Winterlude)

2.30 - Leg 2: Simenon is the favourite, but the ground might just have gone against him, as he loves it quick, according to his trainer. He was only fifth in this last year, having won twice at Royal Ascot. Times Up won this last year, and the ground has come for him. He didn't stay in the Ascot Gold Cup but connections are quite bullish about their chance today. He ought to go well.

Ahzeemah has been in the first two in his last nine starts (!), and that sequence includes the Dubai Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup (second in both). He seems to always run his race, and Silvestre de Sousa gets on fine with him. I'm not sure the give in the ground is ideal, but he ought to be thereabouts. Stablemate Colour Vision does like it soft, and he won the Ascot Gold Cup as recently as last year, so 9/1 looks a bit of value.

Glen's Diamond is respected, given he can go from the front, and also his course record of 201. On the downside, the 2 and 1 were both in the Yorkshire Cup (a mile and six), and the 0 was in this last year. The ground is probably against Caucus and Askar Tau now.

A - 1 (Ahzeemah), 7 (Times Up)
B - 4 (Colour Vision), 6 (Simenon)

3.05 - Leg  3: The give in the ground could be the key to Pavlosk, a very nice filly in the making. Although she has as much as ten pounds to find with these on official ratings, she has the most scope and the step up in trip should help her show more, as should the sodden turf. In a seven runner race, I'm risking her as a banker, and will take my medicine if she's out of the first two. You might want to take a different course, and that's up to you!

A - 7 (Pavlosk)

3.40 - Leg 4: And so to the Nunthorpe, a cracking Group 1 five furlong sprint. The ground might have gone against Sole Power, and possible Shea Shea too. They're both riskier propositions on the soft side of good at least. It might also be on the slow side for some or all of Swiss Spirit, Tickled Pink, and Kingsgate Native.

Those who should act on it include the progressive pair, Slade Power and Moviesta; and Spirit Quartz, who ran a blinder to be second in this last year. Jwala has an outside squeak if you can forgive her run last time, when she completely fluffed the start.

A - 6 (Shea Shea), 7 (Slade Power)
B - 9 (Spirit Quartz), 14 (Moviesta)

4.20 - Leg 5: Derbyshire has been very heavily backed for the trainer with the best York Ebor meeting juvenile record, Kevin Ryan. Red Galileo is the most obvious form contender and shouldn't be too troubled by the deeper ground. They'll do.

A - 3 (Derbyshire), 6 (Red Galileo)

4.55 - Leg 6: A super-tough final race, a three year old mile handicap. I'm taking plenty of bullets, mindful that it might be a case of closing the stable door after the placepot has bolted...

Hey Dude and Equity Risk look the best of the Yorkshire brigade, while Newmarket could go well with King George River. Others to consider include Tamayuz Star, Secret Art and Irish raider Machete Mark.

A - 2 (Hay Dude), 9 (Machete Mark), 14 (Secret Art)
B - 1 (King George River), 4 (Tamayuz Star), 11 (Equity Risk)

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Just A's - 3 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 3 = 72 bets

All picks - 3 x 4 x 1 x 4 x 2 x 6 = 576 bets

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York Placepot Picks

York Placepot Picks

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York Placepot Picks, 21st August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

Wow, that was a toughie. 10/1 and 25/1 filling out the places and, in truth, my next pick was only good enough for third, so I'd definitely not have had that one, alas. Onwards, to the first big pot of the week on the Knavesmire. These picks are based on my Day One York Preview here.

1.55 - Leg 1: Eighteen of the twenty are still standing as I write, and we should get four places here. It's a dangerous approach but I'm putting all bar one of my eggs in the high draw basket here. On A, I'm keen on Above Standard, Lady Gibraltar and Bogart; whilst on B, last year's winner, the big priced Tax Free, and Goldream, a more obvious choice.

A - 9 (Bogart), 19 (Above Standard), 20 (Lady Gibraltar)
B - 14 (Tax Free), 16 (Goldream)

2.30 - Leg 2: The Grey Gatsby should run well and is A banker material, while I like the look of Il Paparazzi's form for B.

A - 4 (The Grey Gatsby)
B - 3 (Il Paparazzi)

3.05 - Leg  3: Despite being dubious about the merit of Telescope's form to date, the trainer is respected immensely, and the horse gets A status on that basis. He's joined by Secret Number.

A - 4 (Secret Number), 6 (Telescope)

3.40 - Leg 4: A tough race to predict, and a great race to watch. The percentage play is to bank on Al Kazeem, and hope there's some pace in the race, perhaps provided by Trading Leather. So that's what I'll do.

A - 1 (Al Kazeem)

4.20 - Leg 5: This is the hardest race of the day for me. Broxbourne is a filly in form, and she was unlucky last time. And Wyborne looks the type to improve today. Willie Wag Tail has been well supported, and will be the third part of my A triumvirate.

I'm taking B's here too, in the shape of Suraj, Eagle Rock, Martin Chuzzlewit and Crackentorp. Phew.

A -10 (Broxbourne), 11 (Willie Wag Tail), 14 (Wyborne)
B - 2 (Suraj), 8 (Crackentorp), 12 (Martin Chuzzlewit), 13 (Eagle Rock)

4.55 - Leg 6: There just remains the small matter of a fifteen runner nursery handicap to close this thing out. Two absentees have already reduced the available place pool from four to three berths, so we need to be on our mettle. I'm a big fan of Jazz (the horse, not the musical genre), and I think he might have won at Goodwood last time with a soupçon more luck.

I also like Tiger Twenty Two and Tanseeb.

On B, I'll have the unexposed ones: Ventura Quest, Les Gar Gan, and Blurred Vision.

A - 4 (Tanseeb), 6 (Tiger Twenty Two), 7 (Jazz)
B - 11 (Ventura Quest), 13 (Blurred Vision), 17 (Les Gar Gan)

By the way, this week you can get a £10 free bet if you place a £10 totepool bet with BetFred. Click the banner below for more info.

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Just A's - 3 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 3 x 3 = 54 bets

All picks - 5 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 7 x 6 = 840 bets

Ticket builder optimized perm - see below.

York Placepot Picks

York Placepot Picks

Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms.

betfred.com

Place your toteplacepot bets with totepool directly, using the link below:

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