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Stat of the Day, 13th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, rallied and every chance inside final furlong, edged left and ran on, but beaten by half a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.40 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG  

...in the 11-runner, Listed Rockingham Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Soft/Good to Soft in places ground worth £28355 to the winner... 

Why?

Apologies this morning for the lateness of adding the write-up. We lost power here just after 9pm Friday night and it has only came back on 13 hrs later. As a result the following is a bit more note-form / brief than usual, but rest assured, the pick was made via the usual process : all you're missing is some extra "waffle/padding" from me...

So, we've a 2yr old colt with 3 wins and a place from 5 starts on turf (13511) with a 3 from 3 record on Good to Soft/Soft/Heavy. He's 1 from 1 in Listed company too, also gained on heavy ground (at Ayr LTO 22 days ago), so he shouldn't be found wanting for stamina today.

His yard (trained by Ralph Beckett) is in great form right now with a 30 day record of 18 winners from 71 (25.4% SR) rising to 9/32 (28.1%) over the past fortnight, whilst the last 7 days' tally is an excellent 5 from 16 (31.25%).

Ralph's runners are also 113/690 (16.4% SR) for 232.4pts (+33.7% ROI) over a 6f trip since 2009.

His LTO winners are 77/385 (20%) for 24.7pts (+6.4%) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter since 2013, with those coming off a break of 6 to 60 days winning 65 of 296 (22%) for 33.2pts (+11.2%)

And here at York, Ralph's runners are 10/63 (15.9% SR) for 70.3pts (+111.5% ROI) over the last four seasons, including...

  • 11-60 days since last run : 7/48 (14.6%) for 67.4pts (+140.4%)
  • non-handicaps : 4/22 (18.2%) for 54.3pts (+247%)
  • at Class 1 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 49.8pts (+311.5%)
  • sub-4/1 runners are 5/12 (41.7%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%)
  • and in Listed races : 2/10 (20%) for 51.48pts (+514.8%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG, a price available from a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.25 York : Persian Moon @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.35 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Coronet 6/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 1 contest for Fillies and Mares (Darley Yorkshire Oaks) for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £198485 to the winner...

Why?

Yes, I know that there's a well fancied short priced favourite here, but I do like the chances of this older horse to upset the odds at a nice price. Like last year's winner Enable, who she was the runner-up to, she has come here from the King George at Ascot and her career stats include...

  • 3 wins from 4 under Frankie Dettori
  • 2 wins from 4 on good to firm
  • a win and that runner-up finish last year from 2 runs here at York
  • and she's got winning form over this trip

Like last year's winner, she is trained by John Gosden (who by default therefore had the 1-2 in this race last time with Frankie riding the winner) and John's horses have been running well for a while now, including...

  • over the last 30 days : 19 from 63 (30.2% SR)
  • over the past fortnight : 10/28 (35.7%)
  • and during the last week : 5/15 (33.3%)

More generally over the last seven (including this one) seasons, Mr Gosden's runners are 25 from 106 (23.6% SR) for 12.9pts (+12.1% ROI) on this track, including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 15/8 to 9/1 : 19/74 (25.7%) for 35pts (+47.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 18/72 (25%) for 8.02pts (+11.1%)
  • over trips of 10.5 to 12 furlongs : 19/58 (32.8%) for 35.6pts (+61.4%)
  • females are 12/38 (31.6%) for 6.05pts (+15.9%)
  • in female only races : 12/33 (36.4%) for 11.05pts (+33.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 9/32 (28.1%) for 17.2pts (+53.7%)
  • those ridden by Frankie Dettori are 10/30 (33.3%) for 11.1pts (+37.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 8/30 (26.7%) for 6.68pts (+22.3%)
  • over 1m4f : 6/22 (27.3%) for 14.1pts (+63.9%)

And prior to the start of this year's Festival, Frankie's record over the previous three Ebor meetings in Class 1 non-handicap races stood at 6 wins from 26 (23.1% SR) for 10.93pts profit at an ROI of 42.1%, including 3 wins from 11 (27.3%) for 2.01pts (+18.3%) on those trained by John Gosden...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Coronet 6/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 5.50pm on Wednesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.00 Kempton : Fortune and Glory @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Persian Moon 5/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 3 contest (Tattersalls Acomb Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 2yr old colt couldn't be in better form, coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Yarmouth and then here over course and distance 23 days ago making him the only previous course (and ultimately C&D) winner in today's contest.

He has winning and placed form on good to firm ground and he's 1 from 1 under today's jockey, the excellent Silvestre de Sousa, whose 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes on Tuesday took his 30 day form to 27/111 (24.3% SR) and his 14 day record to 11 from 47 (23.4%).

More long-term (ie since 2010), SdS is 210/671 (31.3% SR) for 123.3pts (+18.4% ROI) on horses trained by the wily Mark Johnston that were sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 and from these 671 runners, of relevance today...

  • those last seen 4-90 days ago are 180/568 (31.7%) for 99.5pts (+17.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 86/247 (34.8%) for 45.75pts (+18.5%)
  • on 2yr olds : 80/229 (34.9%) for 57.8pts (+25.2%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 77/222 (34.7%) for 79.27pts (+35.7%)
  • over 7/8f : 63/188 (33.5%) for 69.75pts (+37.1%)
  • LTO Winners are 49/151 (32.5%) for 18pts (+11.9%)
  • at Class 1 : 11/38 (29%) for 8.67pts (+22.8%)
  • and here at York : 5/23 (21.7%) for 2.54pts (+11%)

...whilst since the start of last season, Mark's runners have won 12 of 76 (15.8% SR) here at York, generating profits of 29.23pts at an ROI of 38.5pts, including...

  • in non-handicaps : 11/31 (35.5%) for 70.2pts (+226.4%)
  • 2yr olds are 9/28 (32.1%) for 57.8pts (+206.4%)
  • LTO winners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 12.91pts (+61.5%)
  • and at Class 1 : 4/17 (23.5%) for 40.04pts (+235.5%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Persian Moon 5/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 6.20pm on Tuesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Let’s Tork York…

It's York's Ebor meeting this week, and talk will inevitably focus on the form of Aidan O'Brien and Mark Johnston, among many other things. But with what general info should punters at York arm themselves? This article, revised since first publication for the Dante meeting, should help.

York Racecourse Configuration

The track at York features a six furlong straight down which races up to that distance are run. There is a dogleg start from a chute for seven furlong races, and a pretty tight bend into the home straight for races longer than that. There is more information on our York course info page.

 

York Draw Information

So what impact, if any, does the shape of the racetrack - and indeed drainage - have on draw positions? The weather is set fair for the week and the going is currently good to firm, good in places - the clerk has stated that he will water to ensure broadly that ground. Using geegeez.co.uk's Draw Analyzer tool, offers the following insights:

Five furlong draw at York

Looking only at bigger field fast ground handicaps, we can see that there is a slight bias towards lower drawn horses. It is important, however, to check for an even spread of pace across the track: if high numbers have the early dash, that could well be enough to overcome any implied bias in the data.

A slight bias to low numbers in 5f York handicaps

A slight bias to low numbers in 5f York handicaps

 

Six furlong draw at York

At the longest range on the straight course, the higher numbers have seemed to have the best of it; but that's counter-intuitive when compared with five furlongs. Looking at the place data reveals a more even distribution and it may simply be that the place to be is where the pace is. I'd certainly be wary of calling a high draw bias based on the five- and six-furlong data herein.

Six furlong draw data for big field fast ground handicaps at York

Six furlong draw data for big field fast ground handicaps at York

 

Seven furlong draw at York

On the dogleg, there is an advantage to be drawn middle to high. Looking at the constitution of the track, that makes perfect sense as such runners have less distance to travel around the dogleg. Again, though, it won't make the difference between a horse winning and losing, it's just a mild negative for those drawn low.

The effect of the draw in seven furlong big field fast ground handicaps at York

The effect of the draw in seven furlong big field fast ground handicaps at York

 

1m/ 1m1f draw at York

The mile and nine furlong trips take in that sharp bend quite soon after the start of races, which can make life challenging for those trapped out wide. As a jockey, do you use up petrol trying to get handy, or take back and ride for luck? This is borne out in the data, which shows those on the outside winning far less often - and placing less often - than those drawn inside (low).

Although typically we should be a little wary of ostensible draw inferences at longer race distances, the shape of the racecourse helps to explain this particular - genuine - bias.

Draw impact at a mile or nine furlongs in big field fast ground York handicaps

Draw impact at a mile or nine furlongs in big field fast ground York handicaps

 

Draw at longer trips at York

We then get into the middle distance realms where, generally speaking, we would not expect to see a draw bias. And that is the case: although low is ostensibly unfavoured, there is very little in it in place terms. That said, it is probably not ideal to be drawn low, as the jockey has to choose between being at the head of the peloton and not benefitting from drafting behind other horses, getting subsumed within the pack as wider-drawn horses congregate around. The former is ineffiicent, the latter requires luck as well as judgment.

**

York Pace Information

So that's draw, but what of pace? Are particular run styles favoured on the Knavesmire?

As with most courses, the front is the place to be in sprint handicaps: front runners at York in big field fast ground 5f handicaps win more than two-and-a-quarter times as often as random, and are profitable to back blindly. Of course, the problem there is that we don't know which horse will lead until the race is underway. However, we can project that fairly accurately based on historical run styles. Naturally, Geegeez Gold will inform you of what you need to know with a couple of mouse clicks.

At six furlongs, the advantage to trailblazers is less pronounced but still present. Specifically, they win at an Impact Value of 1.86, a strike rate of 10%, and a modest SP profit. But you might go a long time between drinks with that overall hit ratio.

Those at the front still win most often at seven furlongs in big field fast ground handicaps, but they are not profitable to back blindly and nor will a strike rate of one-in-nine keep you from insanity!

It's worth adding that hold up horses at both six and seven furlongs fare better than those racing either prominently or in mid-division in general run style terms.

Over a mile, slipping the field is tricky - just three of 33 front runners in the studied context managed to achieve it - but it remains better than 8%, 4% and 5% respectively for prominent, midfield and held up runners. Here, those looking to come from off the pace are the most inconvenienced, perhaps because of the impact of that sharp bend.

Your first 30 days for just £1

There are no nine furlong races at York's Dante meeting, and at ten furlongs there is no discernible pace bias. But at a mile and a half, it pays to be played late: those which led or raced prominently in big field fast ground twelve-furlong handicaps are a collective 7-222 (3% strike rate) for a starting price loss of £161.50 (73% of stakes!). Compare that to midfield or hold up racers, and their 8% strike rate and 1.31 impact value.

**

Top York Handicap Trainers in August (Ebor meeting)

You may well have seen lists of trainers to follow elsewhere, and fair play to the publishers. Here I want to look at trainer performance overall, and by race type.

York Ebor Meeting: Overall Trainers, 25+ runners, 2013-2017

There are some interest headlines here. First, if Mark Johnston still needs a winner to get to his 'most winners trained' landmark, it may happen at a place other than York: his record of four winners from 101 runners on the Knavesmire in August is extremely moderate. The 23% place rate suggests there may be some variance in there but even allowing for that Johnston normally hits the frame at around 35%.

Next, Aidan O'Brien. Tony Keenan has established chapter and verse on the Ballydoyle Ebor efforts in this excellent post, and it can be seen from the below that York's meeting is not a hugely successful one for the Coolmore head handler: five wins from 45 runners, 0.72 A/E.

Richard Fahey, Brian Ellison, and Richard Hannon are others about whom to be apprehensive in the general context, though further digging below may shine a more favourable light on some sections of their entry.

On a more positive front, William Haggas, famously a Yorkshireman exiled in Newmarket, relishes the opportunity to plunder pots at his home racetrack; and he does so regularly. His 12 winners in the last five years is almost double the next best haul, with Haggas even managing to chisel out a profit and a positive A/E for followers.

To a lesser degree, and on greater volume, both Kevin Ryan and David O'Meara can be expected to challenge more than once during Ebor week. Their seven winners apiece from 80-odd runners each, as well as their 25% place strike rates (20 placers each) are very similar.

And it's been a good meeting for Godolphin, both Charlie and Saeed recording positive punting figures from ten shared victories. Look out for the blue boys again this week.

York Ebor Meeting: Overall Trainer performance, 25+ runners, 2013-2017

York Ebor Meeting: Overall Trainer performance, 25+ runners, 2013-2017

York Ebor Meeting: Handicap Trainers, 15+ runners, 2013-2017

Specifically in handicaps, there is little of value to be gleaned from this table, except perhaps that the place records of David Barron, Richard Fahey and notably William Haggas - whose overall record is so strong - suggest that caution is advised.

Ebor meeting handicaps are notoriously difficult to win and, as such, Kevin Ryan's four victories, supplemented by a 31% place strike rate, mean his 'cap runners are generally worth a second squint.

Trainer performance: York Ebor meeting, handicaps only, 2013-2017, 15+ runners

Trainer performance: York Ebor meeting, handicaps only, 2013-2017, 15+ runners

 

York Ebor Meeting: Pattern (Listed or better) Race Trainer performance, 10+ runners, 2013-2017

In the good races at the Ebor meeting, we see from where a clutch of Haggas's winners have emerged: six from 26 in Pattern races is an excellent haul, and with 50% of his Pattern runners making the frame for a decent each-way profit, this is a headline takeaway.

Charlie Appleby, too, has fared very well in this subset of races, albeit on a smaller sample to date.

On the downside, Mark Johnston's one from 20 is poor, but 25% placing is less so. I'd still rather be against them, but wouldn't blanket discount. Aidan O'Brien has an overall win rate in UK Pattern races of 18.24% (1st August 2013 to present), which makes his 12.2% Ebor meeting hit rate unsatisfactory. Allied to concerns about the health of some of the team, they have to be swerved just now, notwithstanding that some will probably win: it is simply that the market has yet to account for the negative factors surrounding the yard at this time. [Of course, that could change].

York Ebor Meeting: Pattern (Listed or better) Race Trainer performance, 10+ runners, 2013-2017

York Ebor Meeting: Pattern (Listed or better) Race Trainer performance, 10+ runners, 2013-2017

 

York Ebor Meeting: Class 2 or lower Non-Handicap Trainer performance, selected, 2013-2017

Here we are essentially talking about maiden and/or novice races, and we can see that Haggas again sits top of the tree. Richard Hannon's otherwise poor record at the meeting is solid if not bankable in this race type. Luca Cumani's two from two came in 2014/15 with 25/1 White Lake and 12/1 Beautiful Morning. It may be asking a lot for lightning to strike thrice but any entries should be noted.

Local lads Ryan and Fahey look to be largely entertaining owners at their marquee home fixture and their entries can be pretty much overlooked in this context.

York Ebor Meeting: Class 2 or lower Non-Handicap Trainer performance, selected, 2013-2017

York Ebor Meeting: Class 2 or lower Non-Handicap Trainer performance, selected, 2013-2017

 

Ebor Trainer Summary

The main trainer takeaways for me are:

- Beware Johnston and Fahey, who will hurl a huge amount of clay onto the Ebor meeting wheel, most of which will spin off

- William Haggas is da man, but not in handicaps

- David O'Meara and Kevin Ryan must be kept onside in Ebor handicaps, though it is unlikely to be as simple as blindly supporting them

- Godolphin trainers ought to go well

- Aidan O'Brien is on the 'handle with care' list and his runners may make for better prices elsewhere as current issues are not seemingly factored into APOB entry odds

**

York Big Race Trends

Andy Newton, our big race trends guy, has pored over the data and come up with some pointers for the bigger races. You can find his work here:

York Wednesday Trends

York Thursday Trends

York Friday Trends

York Saturday Trends

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Get Geegeez Gold for York week...

If you're not currently a monthly or annual Gold subscriber, and don't really want the commitment that goes with that, but do want access to Gold for York... you're in luck.

We now offer two-day and week-long passes, which you can take out at the times that suit you. A two day pass costs just £6 or you can access Gold for a week for £12. Both options are available from your My Geegeez page when you're logged in as a free user.

Matt

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th June

NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1

Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)

Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)

Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)

Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)

Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)

Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%.  Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners.  It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint.  The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Hyperfocus

1/3--Outrage

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12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around.  The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case.  DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet.  That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls.  Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms!  FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.

Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dannyday

 

2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around.  Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives.  That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter.  NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms.  The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

1/1—Higher Power

2/3—Natural Scenery

1/1—Island Brave

1/3—Sir Chauevelin

 

2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date.  This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/5—Lopes Dancer

1/8—Good Time Ahead

1/3—Belisa

2/6—Airton

1/5—Sugarloaf Mountain

1/6—Hediddodinthe

 

3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on.  For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days.  I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner!  Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends.  Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday.  This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis.  My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors!  Boyle blessings….

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/12—War Department

1/3—Suzi’s Connoisseur

2/8—Aprovado

1/1—Line House

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 16th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £378.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.2% units went through – 5/2* - 20/1 – 16/1

Race 2: 32.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 25/1 – 7/2*

Race 3: 17.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 10/3 (5/4)

Race 4: 64.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 4/1 – 33/1

Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 13/2 7/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* - 8/1 – 11/2

 

  • Speculative subscribers might have hoped for a bigger dividend last year, given that the ‘Pot was worth £291.88 after five legs. Unfortunately for those that opposed the even money favourite (Bristol Missile) in the Placepot finale, the market leader accounted for 61.9% of the remaining units which in Placepot terms meant that the jolly was an 8/13 chance to finish in the frame - before going on to score.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 4 (Mokaatil), 1 (Sound Of Silence) & 3 (Koditime)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Shamshon), 3 (Rio Ronaldo) & 11 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Chiefofchiefs), 1 (Silver Line) & 6 (Graphite Storm)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Flavius Titus) & 6 (Zalshah)

Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Ibraz), 1 (Deyaarna) & 9 (Simply Breathless)

Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Marechal Ney) & 5 (Jamih)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum in recent times however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/1 during the last thirteen years.  Nine of the last thirteen winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure.  The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour MOKAATIL and SOUND AND SILENCE, whilst the chance of KODITIME is also respected. There are bits and pieces of support for Rock On Baileys at the time of around at around 14/1 which makes for interesting reading

Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via thirteen renewals, though three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame.

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Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Haddaf (good)

1/3—Spoof (good)

 

2.35: This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster.  The trio that should give us a decent shout for our respective monies are SHAMSHON, RIO RONALDO and ISLAND OF LIFE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, including two successful market leaders which were both returned at 5/2.

Record of the five course winners in the second event:

1/1—Rio Ronaldo (good to firm)

1/4—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Babyfact (good to firm)

1/3—Desert Ace (good to soft)

1/1—Jashma (good)

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eighteen available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the six winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders SILVER LINE and GRAPHITE STORM are not discounted from each way and Placepot perspective, though it is five-year-old CHIEFOFCHIEFS which might upset the vintage trends on this occasion.  As a self-confessed stats anorak, I can’t dismiss the fact that James Doyle is only having his third ride for trainer Charlie Fellowes (50% strike rate thus far), whilst Charlie won with his only other runner at the Esher circuit this season.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on Placepot positions, before the subsequent trio of favourites evened up the score by winning their respective events.

Record of the three course winners in the field: 

1/4—Manson (good to firm)

1/1—Chiefofchiefs (good)

1/4—Almoreb (good to soft)

 

3.50: Seven of the last twelve winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which bring FLAVIUS TITUS strongly into the equation.  Roger Varian’s colt looks something of a Placepot banker, whilst there are couple of ‘mistakes’ in the trade press this morning that need reporting, especially with a £2.90 price tag relating to the printed word!  The lads/lasses in the office have ‘priced up’ ZALSHAH at 16/1 which looks well wide of the mark, whilst the reporter on the race offered the following words to round up their comment by literally finishing a sentence about one of the contenders “he was earlier promising”!  Now I can’t talk about ‘typos’ by other people without the term stones/glasshouses being thrown in my direction, but this is printed matter for goodness sake; at £2.90 a copy!  My subscription page today will carry umpteen thousands of words/numerals but I’m hoping not to have many errors thrown in like that one!

Favourite factor: Twelve of the thirteen favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming only five Placepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 two years ago before a 20/1 chance reared its ugly head twelve months later.  Twenty of the 37 horses (54%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card: 

1/1—Rum Runner (good to soft)

 

4.25: Ten of the last fourteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms. The weight stats dilute interest in SIMPLY BREATHLESS to a fashion, though I still cannot bring myself to discard Clive Cox’s raider from a Placepot perspective.  There are no ‘trend worries’ (apart from favourite issues reported below) relating to IBRAZ and DEYAARNA fortunately.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last eighteen years, whilst just eight of the twenty one market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race: 

1/3—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)

 

5.00: There was money overnight for MARECHAL NEY and the 11/4 on offer by three firms at the time of writing might not last too long this morning regarding John Gosden’s Frankel colt.  Indeed, connections of Robert Havlin’s mount might have most to fear from stable companion JAMIH.  I cannot entertain the possibility of both inmates finishing out of the frame.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 15

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.90 (8 favourites: 3 winners & 5 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.4% units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 – 5/4*

Race 2: 68.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 8/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 78.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 3/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 57.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 33/1 – 10/1

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4** - 6/4** - 16/1

Race 6: 68.8% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 3/1** - 3/1**

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Oberyn Martell) & 3 (Good Luck Fox)

Leg 2 (2.35): 12 (Sky Cross), 6 (Glorious Dane) & 5 (Eagle Hunter)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Brigand), 1 (Character Witness) & 4 (Warssan)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Acclimatise) & 6 (Turnpike Trip)

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Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Preening), 8 (Autumn Leaves) & 3 (Affina)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Beringer) & 9 (Hyanna)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Firelight in easy to back at around the 16/1 mark this morning but it will interesting to keep an eye on Andrew Balding’s raider, especially as the trainer has (unusually as I recall) five George Strawbridge juveniles in training this term. More logical winners today include OBERYN MARTELL and GOOD LUCK FOX.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have secured just one bronze medal between them to date.

 

2.35: Mark Johnston (SKY CROSS) leads Richard Hannon (GLORIOUS DANE & DANCING SPEED) 4/3 via recent renewals and I cannot visualise all three horses finishing out of the frame.  That said, the declarations of EAGLE HUNTER and Roger Varian’s late May foal KENZOHOPE complicates matters. Just to add salt into the potential wound, there is plenty of money coming in for Happy Power as I close out the race.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have finished in the frame during the 19 year study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

3.10: With four of his last nine runners having won at the time of writing, William Haggas carries on regardless of where his horses run and at what level. William could be greeting another gold medallist on Friday afternoon with BRIGAND in this event.  That said, this is a lively three-year-old handicap and no mistake, with connections of CHARACTER WITNESS and WARSAAN also have solid reasons for fancying their respective chances.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals to date.  Three of the four relevant horses won their respective events at 13/8, 7/4 and 7/2**.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have secured 20 of the last 37 available Placepot positions in this event, as well as winning six of the twelve contests for good measure (stats include a 12/1 chance).  Four-year-olds are 1/2 to extend the trend before the form book is taken into consideration, with ACCLIMATISE and TURNPIKE TRIP at the head of the overnight list.  I could have really fancied Henry Candy’s latter named raider but for the fast ground, given that his two wins last year were both gained under good to soft conditions.  Given his 11/1 quote in three places at the time of writing, I’m willing to take the gamble, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (exact science), statistics which include five (11/4, 2/1, 11/8, 5/4 & Evens) winners.

 

4.20: AFFINA is attracting money at double figure prices as I drift towards the end of the Placepot card and there is every chance that Simon Crisford’s raider can reach the frame.  From a win perspective however, PREENING and AUTUMN LEAVES will command more attention from the Sandown faithful I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include three (3/1, 6/4** & 5/4) winners.

 

4.50: Eleven of the twelve winners have carried a minimum of 9-1 (nine of the last ten were burdened with 9-3 or more) whereby BERINGER and HYANNA form my permutation in the Placepot finale.  If there is a flat trainer in the land who has improved her ratios better than Eve Johnson Houghton in recent months I would be surprised and her new inmate Hyanna might push the projected favourite Beringer all the way to the line.  For the record, the reserve nomination is awarded to Returning Glory.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won 6/12 of the contests to date, whist ten of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th May

CHESTER – MAY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 93.3% units went through – 9/4 – 7/1 – 11/10*

Race 2: 54.5% of the remaining units when through – 4/1* - 15/2 – 9/2

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 50/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 50.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 5/1 – 5/1 (2/1)

Race 5: 82.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* - 10/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 – 20/1 – 16/1 (2 x 5/2**)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Dragon Moon) & 7 (Wind Storm)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Awesome), 5 (Lamya) & 10 (Stewardess)

Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (South Seas), 6 (Sabador) & 4 (Muntadab)

Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Precision), 3 (Humble Hero) & 1 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 5 (4.05): 6 (Key To Note) & 3 (Port Of Laith)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Jabbarr), 1 (Desert Ruler) & 6 (Be Perfect)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: DRAGON MOON is asked to give eleven pounds to WIND STORM and the concession might be too much for Richard Hannon’s recent Lingfield winner, despite the fact that the form was franked by Crossing The Line on Thursday.  Ralph Beckett’s Holy Roman Emperor filly holds two other entries next week but with only five other rivals to beat, I doubt that Ralph will change his mind, even with WIND STORM having ‘trap six’ to overcome in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

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Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chester.

 

2.20: If there is one word in the dictionary which dives me crackers it’s AWESOME.  Not the actual word you understand, it’s the way that Americans pronounce the term, especially as the word is (seemingly) included in every other sentence they speak!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Clive Cox’s Bahamian Bounty filly should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, though her number nine stall tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  Better housed horses such as LAMYA (1/10) and STEWARDESS (4) can make things interesting in the short straight.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Chester card.

 

2.55: All three winners have carried weights between 8-10 & 9-1 and two horses ‘qualify’ via the weight stats on this occasion, namely, SABADOR and SOUND ADVICE.  Roger Fell is a shrewd trainer and no mistake and his recent 4/10 strike rate catches the eye, especially having secured 13 points of level stake profit during the period.  Roger’s raider MUNTADAB would have been the third qualifier (via the weights) but for a five pound claimer having been booked to ride.  I’m going to add MUNTADAB into the equation given Roger’s great form of late.  The other horse to catch the eye is SOUTH SEAS who has dropped into the positive ‘sector’ of the handicap via another apprentice booking, this time being made by trainer Andrew Balding.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (5/6) winner.

Chester record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/5—Above The Rest (good to soft)

4/10—Sound Advice (3 x good & good to firm)

1/2—Baraweez (good)

1/1—The Feathered Nest (good)

2/7—Penwortham (2 x good)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests, with seven winners carrying a minimum weight of 8-11.  Putting the stats and facts together, PRECISION and HUMBLE HERO stand out from the crowd from my viewpoint.  The pair is listed in order of preference on account of the draw, five over nine in a twelve runner field.  How many horses will be withdrawn because of ‘car park’ positions in the stalls remains to be seen.  NIGHT OF GLORY (1) is offered the reserve nomination, though having only had one ride around the track, five pound claimer Jason Watson will have to be on top form, albeit the young pilot has ridden 28 winners to date.

Favourite factor: All eight race during the last decade have failed to produce a winning favourite, with gold medallists ranging between 5/2 and 25/1 during the period, creating a successful average price of 11/2.  The last five market leaders have all finished out with the washing.

Chester record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

1/1—Tor (good to soft)

1/4—Kajaki (heavy)

1/17—Gabrial’s King (good)

2/8—Zenafire (good & good to soft)

 

4.05: With Tom Dascombe’s local newcomer Smoki Smoka still “looking a bit weak’ back in the spring via a stable tour, I’m inclined to opt for Mark Johnston’s experienced pair PORT OF LEITH and KEY TO POWER against their four rivals in a juvenile event which should not prove difficult to win. Mark’s Slade Power filly KEY TO NOTE beat seven others home on debut when finding one too good on her first day at school at Thirsk.  Any amount of normal improvement (whatever that is) from race one to two should see her home with something to spare from trap four.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.40: With over 53% of Iain Jardine’s winners on the flat being secured at the three tracks which house racing on the level in Scotland, we have to tread carefully when the trainer ventures ‘south’ but Ian might snare his third success on the Roodee with JABBAARR in our final heat.  Iain has become a class act and Phillip Makin’s mount looks set to take maximum advantage of his trap one position.  DESERT RULER (3/10) and BE PERFECT (4) can chase home the selection.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Chester programme.

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Be Perfect (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Friday 18th May

YORK – MAY 18 

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £106.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,948.46 - Favourites stats - 44 in total - 17 winners - 11 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.8% units went through – 4/1** - 4/1** - 16/1

Race 2: 40.8% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 5/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 45.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 40/1

Race 4: 77.85% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 15/8*

Race 5: 46.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 5/1 – 8/1

Race 6: 19.8% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 14/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 10 (No Lippy), 3 (Carrie’s Vision) & 16 (Strings Of Life)

Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (Sheilha Reika) & 6 (Threading)

Leg 3 (3.30): 7 (Stradivarius) & 1 (Desert Skyline)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Valcartier), 3 (Kings Gift) & 9 (Master Carpenter)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Crafty Madam), 3 (Pepita) & 4 (Ifubelieveindreams)

Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Koditime), 5 (Areen Faisal) & 7 (Marnie James)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eleven of the thirteen winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 with the likes of NO LIPPY and CARRIE’S VISION making plenty of appeal this time around towards the top of the market.  Mark Johnston appears to have a typical MJ streetfighter in NO LIPPY who took control early doors in the ‘Lily Agnes’ last week and was not for passing.  This is a tougher assignment obviously, though there is every indication that Mark’s Oasis Dream filly can land the hat trick en route to even better things later in the season.  The other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint is STRINGS OF LIFE in an absorbing start to the final day of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Six of the 15 favourites (thirteen renewals) have obliged to date, whilst ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

9-2-7 (13 ran-soft)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-10-7 (13 ran-good)

6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)

9-1-6 (11 ran-good)

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6-1 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

 

2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via twelve renewals during the last thirteen years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest.  The opening line of the stats immediately below suggest the race could develop between the market leaders SHEIKHA REIKA and THREADING, the horses being listed in that order via slightly more strength on the exchanges overnight for the first named Roger Varian trained representative.  Those looking for an alternative each way play (though this is a ‘short field’ event) could do worse than consider the overnight ‘rag’ in the contest’ namely JULIET FOXTRET at around the 12/1 mark.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 25 of the last 28 horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the thirteen favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

2-5 (6 ran-soft)

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1-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-3-1 (14 ran-good)

2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)

5-3 (7 ran-good)

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-soft)

York record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/1—Awesome Tank (good)

1/1—Threading (good to soft)

 

3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ (thoroughbreds were built for speed rather than endurance from my viewpoint) and I will simply be looking to get through the Placepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that STRADIVARIUS has plenty to offer by way of past results, whilst those of you looking for an each way/Placepot interest in the contest might consider the likes of DESERT SKYLINE and CALL TO MIND.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 21 recent favourites have finished in the frame, whilst seven market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':

4/12—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

1/1—Max Dynamite (good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available Placepot positions. Vintage representatives produced a clean sweep in Placepot terms two years ago and the pick only four 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be VALCARTIER and KINGS GIFT.  That all said, there is the small matter of MASTER CARPENTER having been declared to attempt to defend his crown successfully after blowing his rivals away in no uncertain fashion twelve months ago.  Don’t listen to too much talk of that race having been contested of soft ground, as Rod Millman’s Mastercraftsman raider has won on the course under good conditions as well. Carrying two pounds less on this occasion, Red’s seven-year-old demands Placepot respect at the very least, especially as 7/1 was still on offer at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the 23 favourites have secured Placepot positions in recent times, though only three market leaders have won down the relevant years.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

5-3-6-19 (20 ran-soft)

4-9-2 (13 ran-good)

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of the course winner in the field:

2/4—Master Carpenter (good & soft)

 

4.35: Ryan Moore has a number of each way chances on the card, arguably none more so than CRAFTY MADAM in this contest.  Given Ryan’s 6/18 record for Clive Cox down the years, CRAFTY MADAM is the first name on the team sheet ahead of other PEPITA and a potential each way player in IFUBELIEVEINDREAMS.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 4/1, 7/2 & 11/4.  Detectives are still searching for the unplaced favourite that was sunk without trace.

York record of the course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/6—Dark Intention (good to soft)

 

5.05: 23/38 horses to have gained Placepot positions (via eleven renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with six qualifying runners to consider this time around (jockey claims are taken into account) in a sixteen strong field, potentially at least. KODITIME (another Cox/Moore runner on the card), AREEN FAISAL and MARNIE JAMES get the vote.

Favourite factor: Only two of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-1-14 (12 ran-soft)

15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)

10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)

17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)

17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Marnie James (good to firm)

1/3—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 17th May

YORK – MAY 17

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £10.865.10 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £349.40 (10 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 6 unplaced)

2015: £354.20 (6 favourite: 1 winner - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,473.10 (6 favourite: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2013: £938.30 (6 favourite: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £50.10 (9 favourite: 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £20.40 (6 favourite: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,007.23 - Favourite stats: 49 in total - 10 winners - 13 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.4% units went through – 13/2 – 12/1 – 10/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 6.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 (Win only – 11/8)

Race 3: 43.5% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

Race 4: 40.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/2* - 8/1 – 11/1

Race 5: 6.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/1 (5/6)

Race 6: 37.2% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 – 10/1 – 9/2 (7/2)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 9 (East Street Revue), 17 (Royal Brave), 5 (Copper Knight) & 3 (Edward Lewis)

Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Coronet) & 5 (Mori)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Roaring Lion), 1 (Cross Baton) & 4 (Mildenburger)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Original Choice) & 3 (Cape Byron)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Roussel), 3 (Declarationofpeace) & 9 (Main Desire)

Leg 6 (5.05): 10 (True Belief) & 5 (Kessaar)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eight of the ten winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1-10/1-10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 10/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 103-87-89-95-89-96-92-100-104-90 (average of 94).  Eight of the ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst four of the last eight contests have been secured by seven-year-olds.  Putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of EAST STREET REVUE (only horse running off 94 today), ROYAL BRAVE (pick of the two seven-year-olds) and COPPER KNIGHT.  The reserve nomination is awarded to EDWARD LEWIS.

Favourite factor: Six of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

11-16-8 (12 ran-soft)

4-15-10-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-3-10 (15 ran-good)

4-12-10-11 (19 ran-good to soft)

5-15-6 (15 ran-good)

5-15-14-2 (16 ran-good)

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)

4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-12 (15 ran-good)

1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

York record of the eleven course winners in the opening race:

1/4—Gracious John (good)

1/3—Major Jumbo (good to soft)

1/3—Copper Knight (good)

1/1—Holmeswood (good)

1/8—Desert Law (good to soft)

2/6—East Street Revbue (2 x good)

1/13—Line Of Reason (good to firm)

1/4—George Dryden (good)

1/5—Excessable (good to firm)

1/5—Carlton Frankie (good)

1/5—Rosina (good to firm)

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2.55: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals of this contest, with five-year-olds having won the other six contests. The pair of six-year-olds (Chain Of Daisies and Smart Call) are passed over accordingly, hopefully leaving CORNET and MORI to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Horseplay is booked for the bronze medal from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

York record of the course winner in the second event:

1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four of the last 14 winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby notwithstanding 33/1 winner Libertarian (2013) which finished second to Leader Of The Word at Epsom.  Throw in The Grey Gatsby (won the French Derby in 2014) and we can see why the 'Dante' remains a true Derby trial.  John Gosden has won the last two renewals of this event when represented and the popular trainer would surely have been coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion but for Cracksman having been withdrawn twelve months ago because of the prevailing soft ground. John has declared ROARING LION (fifth in the 2000 Guineas recently) and CROSSED BATON, winner of his last three races, the last of which was the Epsom ‘trial’.  MILDENBURGER is a typical Mark Johnston terrier who will not go down without a fight, though WELLS FARHH GO might have needed softer conditions to slow down the opposition.  I’m not sure that James Cook will be good enough, despite this looking to be a slightly sub-standard field.

Favourite factor:  Five of the last 19 market leaders have obliged, whilst eleven of the 20 jollies have reached the frame during the study period.

York record of the course winner in the Dante Stakes:

2/2—Wells Farhh Go (2 x good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last seventeen renewals, whilst eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.  William Haggas snared a 21/1 double on yesterday’s card and the trainer boasts definite claims here with ORIGINAL CHOICE possessing ticks on both of the trend boxes.  CAPE BYRON appears to be the main threat, whilst ISOMER has an each way chance on the best of his form.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (six winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

12-1-9-13 (17 ran-soft)

16-8-5-11 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-6-17-7 (18 run-good)

1-4-3 (11 ran-good to soft)

16-14-11 (15 ran-good)

3-4-2 (11 ran-good)

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)

4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-8 (15 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)

12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)

6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

York record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Custom Cut (good)

 

4.35: DECLARATIONOFPEACE looks to be the likeliest winner on the card for Aidan O’Brien having won two of his last three races to close out a decent juvenile season.  That said, we have least two home contenders with chances of keeping the prize this side of the Irish Sea, namely the ultra-consistent Charlie Appleby trained ROUSSEL and Michael Bel’s MAIN DESIRE, who could yet be anything following just two juvenile assignments.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten favourites (via nine renewals) have finished in the money to date, statistics which include three (10/3-4/6-4/5) winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-1 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-5-8 (10 ran-good)

2-6 (6 ran-good)

2-8 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

York record of three course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Sound And Silence (good)

1/2—Hey Jonesy (good to soft)

1/1—Main Desire (soft)

 

5.05: The two runners currently at the head of the market look set to complete my Placepot permutation of the middle day for the meeting. There appears to be plenty of confidence in both TRUE BELIEF (Charlie Appleby) and KESSAAR (John Gosden) and unless jungle drums have been beating about any of the other contenders when I have had my headphones on (which I might have missed accordingly), I’ll settle for this pair against the remaining eight entries.

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 20 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst eight favourites have obliged.  13 of the last 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

6-10-9 (8 ran-good to soft)

1-3-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

13-3-7 (12 ran-good)

1-6-8 (8 ran-good)

10-13-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (13 ran-good)

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)

6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)

6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (10-good to firm)

2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)

9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)

7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 16th May

YORK – MAY 16

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £310.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £32.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2015: £3,142.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,860.60 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2013: £305.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £3,044.20 (6 favourites: No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,943.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,662.73 - 45 favourites - 15 winners - 5 placed - 25 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 20.6% units went through – 12/1 – 7/1 – 20/1 – 25/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 37.2% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 6/1** - 14/1 – 8/1 (6/1**)

Race 3: 12.1% of the remaining units went through – 14/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

Race 4: 82.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* & 12/1

Race 5: 69.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 16/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 44.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 4/1 – 12/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 6 (Hamanda) & 7 (Now Children)

Leg 2 (2.55): 16 (Private Matter), 8 (Golden Apollo), 9 (El Hombre) & 12 (Orion’s Bow)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Tasleet) & 1 (Harry Angel)

Leg 4 (4.05): 6 (Highgarden) & 1 (Ceilidhs Dream)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Clubbable), 12 (Cavatina), 6 (Queen’s Sargent) & 3 (Zap)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Charming Kid) & 7 (World Order)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Four-year-olds have won the last five contests, whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won ten of the last fourteen renewals.  Four horses qualify this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be HAMADA and NOW CHILDREN ahead of Tuff Rock and Contango.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty seven market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes six winning favourites.

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen renewals, confirming their ‘recent’ dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result seven years ago via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Twelve of the last thirteen winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Relevant horses PRVATE MATTER (drawn 3/19), GOLDEN APOLLO (16) and EL HOMBRE (14) form my speculative ‘short list’ on this occasion.  If vintage representatives are to be denied this time around, ORION’S BOW (9) might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 28 favourites have secured Placepot positions, with just three favourites prevailing from a win perspective during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result offered first):

8-2-1-16 (16 ran-soft)

5-9-1-4 (18 ran-good)

11-14-4-1 (17 ran-good)

20-5-19-14 (20 ran-soft)

18-3-5 (15 ran-good to soft)

15-6-18-7 (19 ran-good)

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)

11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)

15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)

12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

13-7-12 (13 ran-good)

7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)

1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

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12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)

2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

York record of the six course winners in the second race on the card:

1/6—Terentum Star (good)

1/6—Flying Pursuit (good to soft)

2/10—Out Do (2 x good)

1/3—Golden Apollo (good to firm)

1/4—Classic Seniority (good)

2/4—Dark Defender (good & good to soft)

 

3.30: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 13 of the last 19 renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 8-5 during the period.  It might prove foolish to suggest that last year’s 14/1 winner TASLEET only scored on account of the soft ground, even though his two course victories tell us that moisture in the turf holds no worries for connections.  Equally however, the William Haggas raider has finished in the first two in three of his five assignments on good to firm (including one victory), whereby there should be no excuse on account of today’s conditions.  All that said, HARRY ANGEL is supposedly fit and ready for this event and has “strengthened up” tremendously well over the winter.  Unfortunately, we heard similar words for the connections of Eminent last week at Chester before investors suffered first degree burns on the Roodee.  Outsiders have a really good record in this event but I’m struggling to nominate a winner from that sector, even though Sir Dancealot remains a horse of undoubted potential.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last twenty years, though just three of the other sixteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.  Eight of the last twelve winners have scored at 40/1-25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

9-12-3 (12 ran-soft)

4-9-6 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (15 ran-good)

4-2-5 (13 ran-soft)

18-15-4 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-12-3 (13 ran-good)

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)

1-11-6 (12 ran-good)

3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-1-13 (17 ran-good)

2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)

5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)

8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)

3-5-4 (10 ran-good)

York record of the two course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Sir Dancealot (good)

2/3—Tasleet (Good to soft & soft)

 

4.05 ('Musidora'): John Gosden has won five of the last six renewals when represented and John has offered the green light to his Nathanial filly HIGHGARDEN who might win this ‘trial’ with something to spare, especially when considering that Frankie’s mount is the only Gosden runner on today’s card.  It’s also worth noting that on the one occasion when John did not win the ‘Musidora’ in recent times, his raider (Woodland Aria) made amends next time out at odds of 5/4.  I invariably have plenty of respect of Peter Chapple-Hyam’s raiders when they take in races towards the top end of the events on the calendar whereby the chance of LUBINKA is respected, albeit I slightly prefer CEILIDHS DREAM as the main threat to the selection.  Give And Take is another decent filly, though one win from four assignments is not the best ratio with which to go to war in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include seven winners.

 

4.35: Richard Fahey has landed this event three times in the last nine years and two of his three entries boast Placepot claims at double figures from my viewpoint, namely CLUBBABLE and ZAP.  Horses from the other end of the market have a terrific record however (see stats immediately below), whereby Kevin Ryan’s market leaders COMMANDER HEN and QUEEN’S SARGENT are respected alongside CAVATINA.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed via just ten contests thus far, though the other three market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.  The winners offer level stake favourite profits of 22 points which is something to behold!

York record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Zap (good to soft)

1/2—International Man (good to firm)

 

5.05: There is not a lot of money queuing up on the exchanges for any of the contenders if truth be told which gets the red lights flashing, though the likes of CHARMING KID and WORLD ORDER should land the Placepot dividend for us if we were live going into the final leg of our favourite bet.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites to date have missed out on toteplacepot positions (six winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (nine years ago).  The other twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-2-1 (8 ran-soft)

3-9-6 (9 ran-good)

1 (4 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

1-5-2 (8 ran-good)

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)

5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 14th October 2017

Friday's Result :

8.45 Kempton : Cool Team @ 10/3 BOG WON at 13/8 : Held up mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon led, kept on well to win by half a length...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

3.50 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

A Class 2, 2yo handicap (nursery) over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 2 yr old filly who won last time out in a similar Class 2 contest at Newmarket a fortnight ago. Her yard is in great form with 23 winners from 83 (27.7% SR) over the last 30 days and 12 from 43 (27.9%) in the past fortnight alone.

On top of his good recent form, trainer William Haggas tends to do well here on the Knavesmire too, saddling up 54 winners from 243 (22.2% SR) for profits of 96.8pts (+39.8% ROI) since 2009 and these include...

  • those who last ran 1-45 days ago : 49/174 (28.2%) for 145.5pts (+83.6%)
  • those with 2 to 10 previous career runs are 44/173 (25.4%) for 122.7pts (+70.9%)
  • in handicaps : 27/123 (22%) for 47.7pts (+38.8%)
  • LTO winners are 17/65 (26.2%) for 19.6pts (+30.1%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 16/64 (25%) for 18.8pts (+29.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG, which was widely available at 6.55pm on Friday, but if you can get the 3/1 offered by Ladbrokes : go for it! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th Ocotber

NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £84.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Rastrelli), 5 (Kew Gardens) & 4 (Graffiti Master)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Ghaiyyath) & 7 (Purser)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Expert Eye) & 2 (Emaraaty)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Shrewd), 12 (London Pride), 32 (Withhold), 18 (Lagostivegas) & 34 (Aurora Gray)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Nobleman’s Nest), 4 (Prestbury Park) & 7 (Character Witness)

Leg 6 (4.50): 13 (Tirania) & 10 (Spiritual Lady)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: This Listed juvenile event was the Placepot finale last year and it looks just as tough to start off a wonderful card, especially with just a ‘short field’ of seven runners having been declared.  The only course winner is RASTRELLI and though the ground will be riding faster on Saturday, Charlie Appleby’s February foal is worth his place in the field in search of his hat trick.  There is every chance that KEW GARDENS could start off the day to winning effect for Aidan O’Brien, whilst there is no knowing how punch potential lies beneath the saddle regarding John Gosden’s Dubawi representative GRAFFITI MASTER.  New readers might like to know that the term short field related to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won six of the last eleven contests, whilst every winner during the last twelve years scored at 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Rastrelli (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four renewals of the Autumn Stakes have passed since a favourite obliged as you can plainly see below though that said, the last six market leaders have all finished in the frame if you include the joint favourites in 2012.   A few of the represented leading trainers have failed to win this Group 3 event despite 27 renewals, including Aidan O’Brien who appears to feel frustrated as he has only sent two outsiders over to contest the race this time around.  I called the 12/1 winner Best Solution last year and trying to follow up that winner, I’ll go to the other end of the market with Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH who looks a really promising type judged on his victory at the second time of asking over course and distance.  James Doyle’s mount had disappointed as a beaten 6/5 favourite on debut on Town Moor but Charlie’s late April foal made amends in grand style.  PURSER met with traffic problems in the ‘Solario’ at Sandown or John Gosden’s Mizzen Mast coly might otherwise have been coming here on his fourth assignment defending an unbeaten run. If however, is the biggest word in racing.

Prices of win and placed horses in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes (exact science):

2016: 12/1-16/1-11/4*

2015: 4/1-15/8*-9/2

2014: 10/1-33/1-11/4*

2013: 15/2-6/5*-16/1

2012: 5/2**-5/2**-7/1

2011: 8/1-5/1-11/8*

2010: 33/1-9/1-7/2

2009: 9/1-15/2-9/2

2008: 9/4*-11/4-4/1

2007: 4/7*-16/1-5/1

2006: 6/4*-25/1-4/1

2005: 20/1-13/8*-9/1

Record of the course winner in the Autumn Stakes:

1/1—Ghaiyyath (good to soft)

 

3.00: Aidan O'Brien's sends four representatives over to try and snare his fifth winner of the 'Dewhurst' during the last nine years.  Even the maestro might have his work cut out however, with Sir Michael Stoute sounding bullish about the chance of EXPERT EYE, a scenario which Michael has not been prone to voice down the years, especially relating to his two-year-olds. Michael is not one to get too carried away with his representatives and it’s worth noting that Expert Eye’s only other entry at the time of writing is in the Irish 2000 guineas next year.  Acclamation stock tend to run over a maximum of eight furlongs though that said, the sire has produced 19 runners to win over the Derby distance and beyond.  This race should tell us everything we need to know about next year, proving that the January foal wins of course.  SEAHENGE is my idea of Aidan’s best chance in the race, whilst EMARAATY is the pick of the remaining home contingent.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last eleven renewals, whilst nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.

Record of the course winner in the Group 1 ‘Dewhurst’:

1/1—U S Navy Flag (good to soft)

 

3.40: Recent weight, starting price and Cesarewitch age trends have been shot to pieces during the last few years (I try and be as honest as possible) whereby I am less than confident about the outcome this time around.  That said, ten of the last sixteen Placepot positions have been claimed by horses drawn 12 or higher, statistics which include 66/1 and 50/1 winners amongst their number.  Out of interest, six of the last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of 8-11.  I’m offering five horses against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely SHREWD, LONDON PRIDE, WITHHOLD, LAGOSTOVEGAS and AURORA GRAY.  I doubt that I will become involved in trying to name the winner come sun up.

Prices of win and placed horses:

2016: 7/1-50/1-8/1-9/1

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2015: 50/1-7/1-9/1-16/1

2014: 10/1-25/1-5/1*-16/1

2013: 66/1-20/1-10/1-20/1

2012: 66/1-7/1*-9/1-14/1

2011: 25/1-16/1-20/1-14/1

2010: 16/1-33/1-50/1-14/1

2009: 9/2*-14/1-16/1-16/1

2008: 50/1-15/2-10/1-7/2*

2007: 14/1-33/1-6/1**-25/1

2006: 9/2*-25/1-100/1-25/1

2005: 10/1-20/1-50/1-25/1

2004: 16/1-10/1**-50/1-33/1

2003: 12/1-33/1-50/1-8/1

2002: 12/1-16/1-66/1-12/1

2001: 14/1-66/1-33/1-66/1

2000: 11/1-40/1-9/2*-10/1

1999: 7/1-50/1-25/1-100/1

1998: 11/1-14/1-13/2-10/1

1997: 16/1-5/1*-12/1-10/1

Record of the course winners in the Cesarewitch:

1/4—Watersmeet (good to firm)

1/1—Who Dares Wins (good)

1/4—Shrewd (good)

2/3—Star Rider (good & soft)

 

4.15: Simon Crisford has posted 17 winners since the end of July via a decent strike but more importantly, the trainer has snared 73 points of level stake profit into the bargain.  We will not get fat backing NOBLEMAN’S NEST however, albeit Simon has a fine chance of snaring the prize.  Mark Johnston’s hat trick seeker PRESTBURY PARK (surely a horse destined to run under the other code at Cheltenham one day) looks a typically tough stable representative, whilst CHARACTER WITNESS completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.

Favourite factor: Although there has been a seven furlong Nursery on the card for a number of years, this race has been opened up to colts and geldings as well as fillies, whereby it is (quite correctly to be fair) deemed as a new race.  I try and be as flexible as possible, even though that might not come across at times!  However….

 

4.50: I’m trying to work out why (for the life of me) this Listed ‘Bodicea’ event is being classed as a new race.  It’s still a Listed (Class 1) event raced over six furlongs for the fairer gender so what gives?  For the record, I am keeping my stats intact whereby you can choose to follow suit and stay with the (albeit unofficial) history of the race or you can ignore the stats and facts, that is your prerogative.  William Haggas saddled four consecutive winners of this event between 2007/10 and the trainer has offered the green light to TIRANIA on this occasion.  Three-year-olds have won nine of the last twelve renewals for good measure, albeit that stats relates to 12/13 runners this time around.  Others to consider include QUEEN KINDLY and (particularly) SPIRITUAL LADY with Ryan Moore booked to ride.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six contests, whilst eight of the twelve market leaders during the last decade finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Pixieleen (good)

1/1—Spiritual Lady (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – followed in brackets by the number of winners they have saddled at H/Q on Cesarewitch day during the last five years:

7 runners—Mark Johnston (2)

7—Aidan O’Brien (3)

6—Richard Fahey

6—John Gosden (1)

3—Charlie Hills (2)

3—Alan King (1)

3—Hughie Morrison (1)

3—Willie Mullins

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Charlie Appleby (1)

2—Andrew Balding (1)

2—Ralph Beckett

2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (1)

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—William Haggas (1)

2—Richard Hannon (1)

2—Brian Meehan (1)

2—Evan Williams

2—Ian Williams

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

93 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £198.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Hexham: £30.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

York: £57.90 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: This is a new fixture on the calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 13th October

YORK - OCTOBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £829.30 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Tulip Fever), 2 (Beatbox Rhythm) & 15 (Kyllachy Dragon)

Leg 2 (2.45): 11 (Just Hiss), 19 (Highland Colori), 3 (Zwayyan) & 5 (Bravery)

Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Harrogate), 8 (Malitia) & 1 (Equitant)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Gold Star)

Leg 5 (4.30): 12 (Bashiba), 11 (Tylery Wonder) & 4 (Monsieur Joe)

Leg 6 (5.05): 12 (Zatorius) & 5 (Photonics)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby the top horse in the handicap (Zap) is eliminated from my thoughts, whereas a three pound claimer aboard BEATBOX RHYTHM offers connections of Karl Burke’s Beat Hollow colt some hope.  First and foremost, I should point out that Richard Fahey has saddled 13 winners at the two day fixture during the last five years which is a great achievement given the competitive edge at this stage of the season.  Zap is one of Richard’s three entries in this event, though he might be thwarted here by the likes of TULIP FEVER (William Haggas saddled the second placed favourite last year) and KYLLACHY DRAGON alongside the afore-mentioned BEATBOX RHYTHM.

Favourite factor: Just five of the last fourteen favourites have finished in the frame during which time, only two market leaders prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Zap (good to firm)

1/1—Tulip Fever (good to firm)

1/1—International Man (good to firm)

 

2.45: Only the one renewal to work with. though horses were drawn 14-15-12-11 in last year’s 19 runner event which was contested on good ground, the same conditions which have been projected this time around.  Last year’s winner HIGHLAND COLORI has been allotted stall 10/20 twelve months on, a position which not stop him following up successfully if up to the task.  Others under the microscope from preferable positions in the gate include JUST HISS (15), ZWAYYAN (16) and BRAVERY (9).  The reserve nomination is awarded to Baraweez (20)

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished halfway down the field behind horses which filled the frame at 22/1, 12/1, 16/1 & 10/1.

Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/3—Cote D’Azur (good to firm)

1/3—Classic Seniority (good)

1/6—Home Cummons (good)

1/4—Just Hiss (good)

1/5—Highland Colori (good)

 

3.20: The powers that be have this marked down as a new race via the ‘novice agreement’ they brought into effect a while ago.  I have included my stats because not one ounce of difference marks this race (apart from its title), as it is a Class 3 event over five and a half furlongs as was ever the case.  It is up to you whether you take note of the facts, plain and simple.  This might be the race in which Richard Fahey strikes for the first time on the card having declared MALITIA and EQUITANT.  Although Militia is the more fancied runner of the pair, the three pounds that Adam McNamara claims aboard the stable companion should ensure that there is not too much daylight between Richard’s representatives.  Daniel Tudhope has been beavering away this year and though his 16% strike rate is down on the last couple of years, Daniel is on course to beat his personal record figure of 110 in a year, with just another ten gold medallists required to achieve that feat.  His chance aboard HARROGATE is there for all to see, especially if we take Richard Fahey’s pair out of the equation.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame (winner & two silver medallists) to date via six contests.

 

3.55: Nine of the thirteen runners won at the last time of asking, though I have to report half the field last year had the same credentials but failed to land the contest between them.  Had the ground been a little softer here today, I could have given BRIMHAM ROCKS a chance of repeating that scenario but given the conditions, I will nominate THE GRAND VISIR (from a win perspective) to thwart horses seeking to put successive victories together.  GOLD STAR is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has secured a Placepot position to date, albeit without winning the relevant contest.

 

4.30: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and it would come as no great surprise if Nigel Tinkler pulled a rabbit out of the hat via his Iffraj gelding BASHIBA. Five pound claimer Rowan Scott was the last jockey to ride BASHIBA to winning effect, albeit fifteen assignments have come and gone in that time.  Others to consider in another tough race on the card to asses are Paul Migleys pair TYLERY WONDER and MONSIEUR JOE who landed the forecast positions between them the last day at Naas.

Favourite factor:  Two of the last ten renewals has been claimed by favourites of one description or another, whilst four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

Record of course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

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1/5--East Street Revue (good)

3/11—East Street Revue (2 x good & good to soft)

1/4—Carlton Frankie (good)

1/3—Tylery Wonder (good)

2/22—Bogart (good to firm & good to soft)

1/4—Top Boy (good to soft)

 

5.05: I’m not sure if I have ever had a bet on a juvenile to win a race after it has finished second on debut.  Such horses always strike me representing poor value for money at such a tender age, with media types often over reacting for just one half decent run.  That has not stopped me including umpteen hundreds of the said creatures in my Placepot plans however, and this is the case here with ZATORIUS and PHOTONICS having been declared to run.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the York card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday followed by the number of winners (in brackets) they have saddled on the corresponding card during the last five years:

11 runners—Tim Easterby (1)

10—Richard Fahey (5)

7—Kevin Ryan

5—David Barron (4)

5—Mick Easterby (1)

5—David O’Meara

5—Nigel Tinkler

4—Roger Fell

3—Michael Appleby

3—Andrew Balding (2)

3—James Bethell

3—William Haggas (2)

3—Brian Meehan (2)

3—Roger Varian

2—Karl Burke (1)

2—Declan Carroll

2—Ann Duffield

2—John Gosden (1)

2—Jedd O’Keeffe

2—Mark Johnston (1)

2—Paul Midgley

2—Lawrence Mullaney

Trainers who have only entered one horse at York on Friday who have saddled one winner apiece are as follows: Julie Camacho, Mick Channon, David C Griffiths, John Quinn and Saeed Bin Suroor

+ 27 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

118 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £493.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £229.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 10th September

FONTWELL - SEPTEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £112.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 4 (Kentford Heiress), 5 (Poetic Lady) & 2 (Miss Spent)

Leg 2 (2.50): 9 (Kiruna Peak), 10 (Newt) & 7 (Ulysses)

Leg 3 (3.25): 4 (Code Of Law) & 6 (Humbel Ben)

Leg 4 (4.00): 4 (Workbench) & 1 (Resolution Bay)

Leg 5 (4.35): 1 (Jackblack), 8 (Thisonetime) & 2 (Amadoue)

Leg 6 (5.10): 4 (Bestwork) & 1 (Shady Glen)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: This meeting marks the start of the NH season (proper) for yours truly, given that I choose this fixture over the competitive racing at York year on year. KENTFORD HEIRESS won this event last year and being only marginally worse off this time around (thanks to the booked claimer), there seems no logical reason to desert the three time (good ground) course winner.  Seamus Mullins has a decent enough record at Fontwell in general terms, whereby the 13/2 quote this morning offers each way value at the very least.  Neil Mulholland has saddled nine winners since the start of August under the NH code (21% strike rate) whereby the declaration of his Worcester winner POETIC LADY demands respect, whilst MISS SPENT cannot be overlooked either.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame thus far, both horses having snared silver medals.

Record of the course winner in the first race:

3/6—Kentford Princess (3 x good)

 

2.50: Jonjo O’Neill sends just the one horse to Fontwell today, though Tidal Watch will need to run better than at Worcester recently to become competitive.  More likely (not obvious) winners include KIRUNA PEAK and NEWT.  Ralph Beckett adds some interest having entered ULYSSES though readers should not get too carried away with the declaration as Ralph’s record under this code stands at 2/69 to date.  One of his four previous runners at Fontwell made the frame however whereby all hope is not lost, from an each way/Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (11 winners), whilst 16 of the last 18 winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less.

 

3.25: Eight of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1 which narrows the field down from nine to six, with CODE OF LAW and HUMBEL BEN preferred to Saffron Prince at the time of writing.  I have just looked at the radar which suggests that rain should not arrive (dangerous statement) at the course by the time this race is contested which will suit connections of CODE OF LAW.  A winner here last time out under fast conditions, Code Of Law has also added two silver medals to his tally via just the four runs on similar ground to date.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 10 renewals have fallen the way of favourites of one type or another, whilst five of the eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the courses winner in the third contest on the card:

1/4—Code Of Law (good to firm)

1/2—Humble Ben (good)

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1/8—Houseparty (good)

 

4.00: WORKBENCH should have his conditions and though the stable of Dan Skelton has gone a little quiet this month, his 35% strike rate via 28 winners during the two previous months suggests that it would be churlish to write off Dan’s early season form just yet.  Better off via the official figures here having finished second in the race last year, WORKBENCH has to be considered at the general offer of 8/1 this morning, at least from a Placepot perspective.  Philip Hobbs has saddled three of his last eight runners to winning effect whereby RESOLUTION BAY is considered the main threat, especially and bits and pieces of support are beginning to emerge as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol.

Favourite factor: Search parties were still out looking for the three beaten favourites in this contest before last year’s 3/1 market leader prevailed.

Fontwell record of runners in the fourth event:

3/6—Workbench (3 x good)

2/7—Royal Battalion (good to firm & good to soft)

1/8—Occasionally Yours (soft)

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won the last seven renewals and yet just two vintage representatives have been declared this time around!  JACKBLACK is the pick of the relevant pair, albeit Brett Johnson’s raider only beat two opponents when successful over course and distance last time out.  THISONETIME and AMADOUE are likely to present challenges at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 13 market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst favourites have won three of the last eight renewals.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1.

Fontwell record of runners in the fifth race:

1/2—Jackblack (good to firm)

1/2—White Valient (good)

 

5.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13, a stat which unfortunately only eliminates one horse (Kings Cross) from my enquiries this time around.  BESTWORK appears to be the logical solution in our last race because as a winner of three of his last four races, the ground should offer no problems for connections today.  Two of the three successes were gained under this afternoon’s projected (good) going, whilst the other recent win was registered on good to soft whereby even if rain arrives, Charlie Longsdon’s six year-old should not be inconvenienced.  SHADY GLEN will no doubt turn in another consistent effort from a Placepot perspective, especially as the top weight has a five pound claimer in the saddle to aid and abet his chance.  Rockchasebullett is the alternative option to consider.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have finished in the frame to date (four winners), whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.

Fontwell record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Rothman (soft)

2/5—Lee Side Lady (soft & heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (1/3 – slight loss)

5—Neil Mulholland (4/13 +7)

4—Seamus Mullins (3/12 +11)

3—Chris Gordon (2/13 – loss of 5 points)

3—Gary Moore (0/25)

2—Tom Lacey (No previous runners)

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/3 +2)

2—Michael Madgwick (No previous runners)

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)

2—David Pipe (1/4 +2)

2—Phuil York (No previous runners)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

York: £18.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 2 unplaced