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York Ebor Stats: Draw, Pace and Trainer Profiles

It's York's Ebor meeting next week, with its smattering of Group 1 features as well as the first ever £1,000,000 handicap in British flat racing, attached naturally enough to the race which gives its name to the meeting (and which in turn was derived from the name, Eboracum, the Romans gave to a fort which resided on the site of what is now the town of York).

In view of four heady days on the Knavesmire, with what general information should punters at York arm themselves? This article, revised since last year's meeting, should help.

York Racecourse Configuration

The track at York features a six furlong straight down which races at up to that distance are run. There is a dogleg start from a chute for seven furlong races, and a pretty tight bend into the home straight for races longer than that. You can find more York racecourse insights on our dedicated York course info page.

 

York Draw Information

So what impact, if any, does the shape of the racetrack - and indeed drainage - have on draw positions? The weather is set fair for the week and the going is currently good to firm, good in places - the clerk has stated that he will water to ensure broadly that ground. Using geegeez.co.uk's Draw Analyzer tool, offers the following insights:

Five furlong draw at York

Looking only at bigger field handicaps on good to soft or quicker, we can see that there is a slight bias towards lower drawn horses. It is important, however, to check for an even spread of pace across the track: if high numbers have the most early dash, that could be enough to overcome any implied bias in the data.

 

Six furlong draw at York

Over the longest piste on the straight course, low again seem just about to have the best of it, particularly when reviewing the place data: this reveals a gradation from low (best) to high (worst). There is nothing insurmountable in these straight data but, all other things being equal, lower numbers may shade it.

 

Seven furlong draw at York

On the dogleg, there is a small advantage to be drawn middle to high. Looking at the constitution of the track, that makes sense as such runners can cut the corner of the dogleg, especially if breaking alertly. Again, though, it probably won't make the difference between a horse winning and losing, it's just a mild negative for those drawn low.

1m/ 1m1f draw at York

The mile and nine furlong trips are the first we've considered which take in that sharp bend quite soon after the start of races; that can make life challenging for those trapped wide. As a jockey, do you use up petrol trying to get handy, or take back and ride for luck? This challenge is borne out in the data, which shows those on the outside winning far less often - and placing less often - than those inside (low).

This time I've illustrated using the full draw chart table as well as a chart showing IV3, a unique geegeez perspective of draw based on the average Impact Value* of a stall and its immediate neighbours.

*Impact Value is the name given to an index created from the number of winners having a certain characteristic compared with the number of runners having that same characteristic. In this example, we are looking at the exactly 1000 runners to race in 8/9f 12-runner-plus York handicaps since 2009 (good to firm through to good to soft) which contested the 61 races in that sample.

So, for instance, we can see that the number of stall 1 winners was five, and the number of stall 1 runners was 61.

Our calculation is:

(number of stall 1 wins / number of stall 1 runs) divided by (all wins in the sample / all runs in the sample)

Numerically that's

(5 / 61)    /    (61 / 1000)

which equals

0.0819672131 / 0.061

which equals 1.34 (see the IV column, second from the right)

Your first 30 days for just £1

The IV3 for stall 4, for instance, is the mean average of the IV of stalls 3, 4, and 5. That is, (2.96 + 1.88 + 1.88) / 3 = 2.24

Of course, you absolutely do not need to understand how it is calculated to know that it is useful in probability terms. Not necessarily in profitability terms, which is a different fish entirely. (We use A/E - Actual vs Expected - more of which another day, or here).

All you need to know is that 1.00 is 'par', 'standard', 'normal' and/or otherwise unremarkable. The further away from 1.00 you get the better or worse such horses have fared, bigger numbers being better.

Management summary: numbers greater than 1.00, especially on bigger sample sizes, imply a greater probability of success.

Hopefully that makes sense - don't get bogged down in the method, but do take note of the meaning.

Draw at longer trips at York

There is no noteworthy draw advantage over longer distances at York.

 

**

York Pace Information

So that's draw, but what of pace? Are particular run styles favoured on this expansive track with its near five furlong home straight?

As with most courses, the front is the place to be in sprint handicaps: front runners at York in big field 5f or 6f handicaps win around two-and-a-quarter times as often as random, and are very profitable to back blindly. See the image below, taken from Gold's Pace Analyzer.

Of course, the problem is that we don't know which horse will lead until the race is underway. However, we can often project that fairly accurately based on historical run styles. Naturally, Geegeez Gold will inform you of what you need to know with a couple of mouse clicks.

There is no discernible pace bias at seven furlongs in big field handicaps, though when the going is good to firm those on the speed have a better chance of seeing it through.

Over a mile, it doesn't pay to be too far back as this somewhat linear chart attests. Although the fewest number of races were won from the front, the number to attempt that feat was commensurately small: a win strike rate of 12% compares favourably with the other run style cohorts. We can see from the table below (Place% column) that these data are backed up by those horses to make the frame.

 

There are no nine furlong races at York's Dante meeting, and at ten furlongs there is no discernible pace bias. That said, those trying to make all are 2 from 78 (-40 points, IV 0.4).

And at a mile and a half, it pays to be played later: those which led or raced prominently in big field twelve-furlong handicaps are a collective 21-374 (5.6% strike rate) for a starting price loss of £205.75.

**

Top York Handicap Trainers in August (Ebor meeting)

You may well have seen lists of trainers to follow elsewhere, and fair play to the publishers. Here I want to look at trainer performance overall, and by race type.

York Ebor Meeting: Overall Trainers, 25+ runners, 2014-2018

There are some interest headlines here. First, Mark Johnston runs a lot here but wins with very few. The 21% place rate is way down on this yard's overall rate, normally hitting the frame at around 36%.

Next, Aidan O'Brien. Tony Keenan established chapter and verse on the Ballydoyle Ebor efforts in this excellent post, and it can be seen from the below that York's meeting is not a hugely successful one for the Coolmore head handler: five wins from 56 runners, 0.65 A/E is moderate for this preeminent operation.

Richard Fahey, Brian Ellison, and Richard Hannon are others about whom to be apprehensive in the general context, though further digging below may shine a more favourable light on some sections of their entry.

On a more positive front, William Haggas, famously a Yorkshireman exiled in Newmarket, relishes the opportunity to plunder pots at his home racetrack; and he does so regularly. His 11 winners in the last five years is four better than the next best haul, with Haggas even managing to chisel out a profit and a positive A/E for followers.

And it's been a good meeting for the Godolphin blue, especially the Charlie Appleby team, which has recorded positive punting figures from seven victories. A 24% hit rate is exceptional given the depth of competition at this fixture.

Andrew Balding and Charlie Hills are both solid operators with a mildly positive wagering expectation.

York Ebor Meeting: Handicap Trainers, 15+ runners, 2014-2018

Specifically in handicaps, there is little of value to be gleaned from this table, except perhaps that the place records of Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby and notably William Haggas - whose overall record is so strong - suggest that caution is advised.

Ebor meeting handicaps are notoriously difficult to win and, as such, the hat-tricks notched by Messrs. Ryan, Balding and Appleby (C) are meritorious. In each case the place rate backs up the higher profile statistic.

 

York Ebor Meeting: Pattern (Listed or better) Race Trainer performance, 10+ runners, 2014-2018

In the good races at the Ebor meeting, we see the emergence of Charlie Appleby as a main man. Just nine runners in such races have yielded three winners, and a further placed effort. Although those numbers are unlikely to be completely lost on the market, there may remain some punting nutrition in his Pattern entries.

William Haggas has claimed two wins from ten runs, with four more placed: excellent figures and testament to the 'target' nature of this meeting for his better horses. Note that Haggas has saddled a 20/1 winner and a 14/1 second in that small group.

Nobody else has managed more than two winners.

On the downside, Mark Johnston's zero from 11 is poor, as is an 18% place rate. I'd be against them, on balance. Aidan O'Brien has an overall win rate in UK Pattern races of 15.78% (16th August 2014 to present), which makes his 5.56% Ebor Festival hit rate highly unsatisfactory. Indeed, just three places from 18 runners in this context in the last five years suggests the meeting is not a material consideration for Coolmore.

 

York Ebor Meeting: Class 2 or lower Non-Handicap Trainer performance, selected, 2013-2017

Here we are essentially talking about maiden and/or novice races, and we can see that man Haggas sits top of the tree. Richard Hannon's otherwise middling record at the meeting is solid if not bankable in this race type.

Local lads Ryan and Fahey look to be largely entertaining owners at their marquee home fixture and their entries can be pretty much overlooked in this context, though the latter did hit his mark with 33/1 Red Balloons last year - which paid for a lot of losers!

 

Ebor Trainer Summary

Overall, one does have to be careful with small sample sizes and current trainer form. But, accounting for those, the main trainer takeaways from the last five Ebor meetings are:

- Beware Johnston, Fahey, Ryan and O'Meara. They've collectively won 19 of the 127 races at this fixture since 2014, having saddled 353 of the 1660 runners. An Impact Value of 0.70 compares with their overall five year IV of 1.23 across more than 24,000 runners. It's likely they'll win four or five of the 25 races, but they're also likely to send out around 70 runners most of whose prices will be more indicative of the 'better than peer group' global IV rather than the poorer local IV. That's a verbose way of saying they'll represent poor value overall.

- William Haggas is the man to follow in non-handicaps.

- Charlie Appleby runners should be given two looks without exception.

- Aidan O'Brien appears not to target the meeting, so his runners may make the market for anything else you fancy.

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.20 Nottingham : Cent Flying @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Held up, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra well inside final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.05 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sir Dancealot @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 5-runner, Listed Ganton Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m on Good To Soft ground worth £28355 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 5 yr old gelding who, when presented with similar conditions to today, has achieved the following...

  • 7 wins from 21 (33.3% SR) in non-handicaps
  • 4 from 13 (30.8%) in non-Gr1 races at Class 1
  • 6 from 9 (66.6%) when sent off shorter than 9/2
  • 3 from 7 (42.9%) under today's jockey Gerald Mosse
  • and he has won one of his two starts here at York.

The afore-mentioned jockey Gerald Mosse is 4 from 17 (23.5% SR) here in the UK so far this month and since the start of 2011 has ridden 23 winners in UK Class 1 contests from 138 attempts. That 1 in 6 strike rate has yielded 58.2pts profit at an ROI of 42.2%, including 4 wins from 18 (22.2%) for 9.93pts (+55.2%) on horses trained by David Elsworth.

In fact, this is only the second year that the pair have teamed up, but the fledgling partnership is already worth 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) and 11.47pts (+33.7% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 8 from 27 (29.6%) for 18.47pts (+68.4%) at 6f to 1m
  • 7 from 9 (77.8%) for 25.87pts (+287.5%) at odds of 6/4 to 5/1
  • 7 from 26 (26.9%) for 15.82pts (+60.8%) on 3-5 yr olds
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 12.16pts (+152%) during June to August

...whilst 3-5 yr olds racing over 7f to 1m at odds of 6/4 to 5/1 during June to August are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 16.16pts (+404% ROI), including a hat-trick of wins with Sir Dancealot last summer...

...providing us with... a 1pt win bet on Sir Dancealot @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.25pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, rallied and every chance inside final furlong, edged left and ran on, but beaten by half a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.40 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG  

...in the 11-runner, Listed Rockingham Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Soft/Good to Soft in places ground worth £28355 to the winner... 

Why?

Apologies this morning for the lateness of adding the write-up. We lost power here just after 9pm Friday night and it has only came back on 13 hrs later. As a result the following is a bit more note-form / brief than usual, but rest assured, the pick was made via the usual process : all you're missing is some extra "waffle/padding" from me...

So, we've a 2yr old colt with 3 wins and a place from 5 starts on turf (13511) with a 3 from 3 record on Good to Soft/Soft/Heavy. He's 1 from 1 in Listed company too, also gained on heavy ground (at Ayr LTO 22 days ago), so he shouldn't be found wanting for stamina today.

His yard (trained by Ralph Beckett) is in great form right now with a 30 day record of 18 winners from 71 (25.4% SR) rising to 9/32 (28.1%) over the past fortnight, whilst the last 7 days' tally is an excellent 5 from 16 (31.25%).

Ralph's runners are also 113/690 (16.4% SR) for 232.4pts (+33.7% ROI) over a 6f trip since 2009.

His LTO winners are 77/385 (20%) for 24.7pts (+6.4%) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter since 2013, with those coming off a break of 6 to 60 days winning 65 of 296 (22%) for 33.2pts (+11.2%)

And here at York, Ralph's runners are 10/63 (15.9% SR) for 70.3pts (+111.5% ROI) over the last four seasons, including...

  • 11-60 days since last run : 7/48 (14.6%) for 67.4pts (+140.4%)
  • non-handicaps : 4/22 (18.2%) for 54.3pts (+247%)
  • at Class 1 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 49.8pts (+311.5%)
  • sub-4/1 runners are 5/12 (41.7%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%)
  • and in Listed races : 2/10 (20%) for 51.48pts (+514.8%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG, a price available from a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.25 York : Persian Moon @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.35 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Coronet 6/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 1 contest for Fillies and Mares (Darley Yorkshire Oaks) for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £198485 to the winner...

Why?

Yes, I know that there's a well fancied short priced favourite here, but I do like the chances of this older horse to upset the odds at a nice price. Like last year's winner Enable, who she was the runner-up to, she has come here from the King George at Ascot and her career stats include...

  • 3 wins from 4 under Frankie Dettori
  • 2 wins from 4 on good to firm
  • a win and that runner-up finish last year from 2 runs here at York
  • and she's got winning form over this trip

Like last year's winner, she is trained by John Gosden (who by default therefore had the 1-2 in this race last time with Frankie riding the winner) and John's horses have been running well for a while now, including...

  • over the last 30 days : 19 from 63 (30.2% SR)
  • over the past fortnight : 10/28 (35.7%)
  • and during the last week : 5/15 (33.3%)

More generally over the last seven (including this one) seasons, Mr Gosden's runners are 25 from 106 (23.6% SR) for 12.9pts (+12.1% ROI) on this track, including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 15/8 to 9/1 : 19/74 (25.7%) for 35pts (+47.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 18/72 (25%) for 8.02pts (+11.1%)
  • over trips of 10.5 to 12 furlongs : 19/58 (32.8%) for 35.6pts (+61.4%)
  • females are 12/38 (31.6%) for 6.05pts (+15.9%)
  • in female only races : 12/33 (36.4%) for 11.05pts (+33.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 9/32 (28.1%) for 17.2pts (+53.7%)
  • those ridden by Frankie Dettori are 10/30 (33.3%) for 11.1pts (+37.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 8/30 (26.7%) for 6.68pts (+22.3%)
  • over 1m4f : 6/22 (27.3%) for 14.1pts (+63.9%)

And prior to the start of this year's Festival, Frankie's record over the previous three Ebor meetings in Class 1 non-handicap races stood at 6 wins from 26 (23.1% SR) for 10.93pts profit at an ROI of 42.1%, including 3 wins from 11 (27.3%) for 2.01pts (+18.3%) on those trained by John Gosden...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Coronet 6/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 5.50pm on Wednesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.00 Kempton : Fortune and Glory @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Persian Moon 5/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 3 contest (Tattersalls Acomb Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 2yr old colt couldn't be in better form, coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Yarmouth and then here over course and distance 23 days ago making him the only previous course (and ultimately C&D) winner in today's contest.

He has winning and placed form on good to firm ground and he's 1 from 1 under today's jockey, the excellent Silvestre de Sousa, whose 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes on Tuesday took his 30 day form to 27/111 (24.3% SR) and his 14 day record to 11 from 47 (23.4%).

More long-term (ie since 2010), SdS is 210/671 (31.3% SR) for 123.3pts (+18.4% ROI) on horses trained by the wily Mark Johnston that were sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 and from these 671 runners, of relevance today...

  • those last seen 4-90 days ago are 180/568 (31.7%) for 99.5pts (+17.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 86/247 (34.8%) for 45.75pts (+18.5%)
  • on 2yr olds : 80/229 (34.9%) for 57.8pts (+25.2%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 77/222 (34.7%) for 79.27pts (+35.7%)
  • over 7/8f : 63/188 (33.5%) for 69.75pts (+37.1%)
  • LTO Winners are 49/151 (32.5%) for 18pts (+11.9%)
  • at Class 1 : 11/38 (29%) for 8.67pts (+22.8%)
  • and here at York : 5/23 (21.7%) for 2.54pts (+11%)

...whilst since the start of last season, Mark's runners have won 12 of 76 (15.8% SR) here at York, generating profits of 29.23pts at an ROI of 38.5pts, including...

  • in non-handicaps : 11/31 (35.5%) for 70.2pts (+226.4%)
  • 2yr olds are 9/28 (32.1%) for 57.8pts (+206.4%)
  • LTO winners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 12.91pts (+61.5%)
  • and at Class 1 : 4/17 (23.5%) for 40.04pts (+235.5%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Persian Moon 5/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 6.20pm on Tuesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th October 2017

Friday's Result :

8.45 Kempton : Cool Team @ 10/3 BOG WON at 13/8 : Held up mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon led, kept on well to win by half a length...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

3.50 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

A Class 2, 2yo handicap (nursery) over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 2 yr old filly who won last time out in a similar Class 2 contest at Newmarket a fortnight ago. Her yard is in great form with 23 winners from 83 (27.7% SR) over the last 30 days and 12 from 43 (27.9%) in the past fortnight alone.

On top of his good recent form, trainer William Haggas tends to do well here on the Knavesmire too, saddling up 54 winners from 243 (22.2% SR) for profits of 96.8pts (+39.8% ROI) since 2009 and these include...

  • those who last ran 1-45 days ago : 49/174 (28.2%) for 145.5pts (+83.6%)
  • those with 2 to 10 previous career runs are 44/173 (25.4%) for 122.7pts (+70.9%)
  • in handicaps : 27/123 (22%) for 47.7pts (+38.8%)
  • LTO winners are 17/65 (26.2%) for 19.6pts (+30.1%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 16/64 (25%) for 18.8pts (+29.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG, which was widely available at 6.55pm on Friday, but if you can get the 3/1 offered by Ladbrokes : go for it! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.25 York : Madeline @ 3/1 BOG - 2nd at 7/2 : Keen early, tracked leaders, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and stayed on to go 2nd inside final furlong, not pace to challenge...

Friday's pick also goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dartmouth @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

On a day when there aren't a lot of horses that jump out from a statistical point of view, this is a fairly straightforward/obvious pick. At 50%, he has easily the best strike rate of all 9 runners in this contest, after winning 8 of 16 starts to date and in those 16 races so far, he is...

  • 7/12 in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 5/10 in non-handicap contests
  • 5/7 under Ryan Moore
  • 4/7 in Group races
  • 4/4 at odds of 5/2 to 4/1
  • 3/4 going left handed
  • 3/3 beyond 1m4f
  • 2/3 at Group 2
  • and 1/1 here at York

In addition to his own suitability, his yard is in good form and despite not having a winner here on Thursday they'd landed 10 winners from 28 in the previous fortnight and 5 from 14 in the previous week.

Plus Sir Michael Stoute's runners here at York are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 32pts (+91.3% ROI) over the past couple of seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dartmouth @ 4/1 BOG which was offered in a half dozen places at 6.05pm on Thursday, whilst Hills were best priced at 9/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.15 Kempton : Phalawarba @ 4/1 BOG - 3rd at 7/2 : Raced wide headway to lead over 5f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, beaten by a length...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Madeline @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Wow! Nosebleed time for me at the rarified atmosphere of Group racing, but this 2 yr old filly has enough about her to drag me away from my usual Class 5 provincial handicaps!

She's 2 from 4 so far, including 2 from 3 at this 6f distance and won a Listed race last time out almost five weeks ago.

Trainer Roger Varian / July-October / 2 yr olds with just 2-5 career runs / No jockey claim / ran in a non-handicap LTO = 22/91 (24.2% SR) for 71.9pts (+79% ROI) over the past five seasons, from which...

  • at 5-7.5 furlongs : 20/77 (26%) for 76.2pts (+99%)
  • in non-hcps : 17/73 (23.3%) for 40.1pts (+55%)
  • on turf : 19/72 (26.4%) for 63.9pts (+88.7%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 20/70 (28.6%) for 82.1pts (+117.3%)
  • females are 12/50 (24%) for 57.7pts (+115.4%)
  • ridden by Andrea Atzeni : 9/37 (24.3%) for 32.4pts (+87.5%)
  • in fillies' races : 8/36 (22.2%) for 42.8pts (+118.9%)
  • and at Class 1 : 5/21 (23.8%) for 33.8pts (+160.9%)

Jockey Andrea Atzeni has 14 winners from 67 (20.9% SR) over the last 30 days and is 6/30 (20%) in the last week and when riding for Roger Varian here at York : 7/28 (25% SR) for 8.65pts (+30.9% ROI) over the last four seasons with those runners priced at 15/8 to 6/1 winning 7 of 17 (41.2%) for profits of 19.65pts at an ROI of 115.6%.

...but, for now, it's... a 1pt win bet on Madeline @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2017

Friday's Result :

6.00 Newcastle : Inaam @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 Raced keenly, held up towards rear, driven to chase leaders over 2f out, soon ridden and one pace, well held when lost place inside final furlong

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.05 York...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Defoe @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

Three top 2 finishes from four starts (1201) for this 3 yr old so far and was a winner in this grade over 1m2f on soft ground last time out, 6 weeks ago. The recent rain in the North shouldn't affect him at all, as he's 2/2 on soft ground.

His trainer, Roger Varian, has an excellent record in Flat handicaps at the sharper end of the market and money put down on his runners seems well placed, as since the start of the 2013 campaign, those sent off at odds of 11/8 to 13/2 are 105/425 (24.7% SR) for 59.2pts (+13.9% ROI) profit. This suits the way I go about my betting perfectly as the vast majority of my bets (public and otherwise!) are within those parameters.

Of these 425 'cappers...

  • 3 yr olds are 68/273 (24.9%) for 41.7pts (+15.3%)
  • over trips of 8.5 to 12.5 furlongs : 57/196 (29.1%) for 78.3pts (+39.9%)
  • running 21-75 days after their last outing : 53/187 (28.3%) for 64.7pts (+34.6%)
  • on ground deemed softer than Good : 24/93 (25.8%) for 16pts (+17.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 18/84 (21.4%) for 14.6pts (+17.4%)
  • in the month of July : 23/77 (29.9%) for 32.2pts (+41.8%)
  • and here at York : 4/17 (23.5%) for 5.34pts (+31.4%)

Harry Bentley will be in the saddle today and he seems to have a knack of looking after well backed horses, as his record on favourites since the start of 2015 stands at 61/126 (48.4% SR) for profits of 50.8pts (+40.4% ROI) and these really are excellent figures, as we all know that blindly backing favourites is generally a one-way route to the poorhouse!

That thought aside for one moment, though, because of those 126 Bentley-ridden favs...

  • handicappers are 38/82 (46.3%) for 34.1pts (+41.7%)
  • LTO winners are 16/32 (50%) for 8.08pts (+25.3%)
  • those trained by Roger Varian : 14/28 (50%) for 14pts (+50%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 10/14 (71.4%) for 20pts (+142.8%)

...providing us with...a 1pt win bet on Defoe9/4 BOG which was generally available at 9.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 York...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2016

Friday's Result :

9.10 Newcastle : Rich Again @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Towards rear, ridden over 1f out, ran on, not reach leaders)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.20 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gulliver at 11/4 BOG

Why?

You can tell what kind of form the Hugo Palmer string is in when he can have an off day on a busy Friday with no winners, yet still boast figures of 9 winners from 33 over the last fortnight.

He also fares well here at York with 5 of his 32 (15.6% SR) runners tasting success here so far and a £20 level stake on each of them has made a profit of £514 (+80.2% ROI), with those running on today's forecasted good ground winning 4 of 18 (22.2%) for 33.3pts (+185.2%).

He sends just one here today, our pick Gulliver, who returns from a break of 149 days since a creditable third place on this very track last time out. He was outsprinted late on over 6 furlongs and should appreciate the extra yardage here today.

The selection is also backed up by the fact that Mr Palmer's runners returning from breaks of 90 to 300 days are 20 from 86 (23.3% SR) for 128.2pts (+149.1% ROI) level stakes profits, with the following of relevance/interest today...

  • males are 13/48 (27.1%) for 94.7pts (+197.4%)
  • over the 2015/16 period : 15/48 (31.25%) for 59.2pts (+123.4%)
  • in non-handicap contests : 11/41 (26.8%) for 91.1pts (+222.3%)
  • in maidens : 7/22 (31.8%) for 74pts (+336.3%)
  • over 7 furlongs : 6/18 (33.3%) for 55.1pts (+306.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 20.2pts (+252.7%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 2.22pts (+37%)

AND... from this we get : 2015-16/ males / non-hcps = 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 31.4pts (+209.6% SR) with a 3/7 record in maidens, a 3/4 return over 7f and 2yr olds are 2 from 3.

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Gulliver at 11/4 BOG, from any of Bet365 (my preferred option), Betbright and/or Hills, who led the way at 8.10pm on Friday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 York.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Sat TV Trends: 20th Aug 2016

The C4 cameras remain at York for the final day of their Ebor Meeting, plus they also head to Sandown to take in three more races. As always Andy Newton’s on hand with all the key trends.


tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

YORK Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.15 - Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y CH4

13/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/13 – Had won at least twice in the their career
12/13 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Had won over a mile before
9/13 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
9/13 – Favourites to finish in the top three
8/13 – Placed horses from stall 2
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – Previous Group race winners
6/13 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
6/13 – Won by Godolphin
5/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/13 – Had won at York before
Custom Cut won the race in 2014
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat


2.50 - Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4

11/13 – Not raced at York before
11/13 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/13 – Won carrying 9-0 or less
11/13 – Had won over 1m4f or further
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
10/13 – Had a top 5 finish last time out
8/13  - Drawn in stall 8 or lower
7/13 – Winning distance 1 length or less
5/13 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 8/1

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.25 - Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f CH4

13/13 – Won just 1-2 times before
13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Won just once before
8/13 – Foaled in March or later
8/13 – Had won over 6f before
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – Won by a March foal
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas
2/13 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
1/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2


4.00 - Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4

14/14 – Carried 9-4 or less
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Won from a double-figure stall
11/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/14 – Winning Distance - 1 length or less
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/14 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Had run at York before
5/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/14 – Winning favourites
Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 23/1

 

SANDOWN Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.30 – Redrock Entertainment Atalanta Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m14y CH4

12/14 – Winning distance 1 ¼ or less
12/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
11/14 – Had won over a mile before
10/14 – Aged 3 years-old
10/14 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
9/14 – Rated between 98 and 108
9/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Had won 3 or more times before
9/14 – Had won a Listed or Group class race
5/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Had run at Sandown before
4/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 11/2


3.05 – TCA Abu Dhabi Solario Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f16y CH4

13/14 – Never raced at Sandown before
13/14 – Had won at least one race before
13/14 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
12/14 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Had 2 or more previous runs
8/14 – Had won over 7f before
8/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/14 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
2/14 – Won by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda (two of last 5 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1


3.40 – National Feed & Flour Production Handicap Cl2 1m2f7y CH4

12/14 – Ran at either Haydock, York, Newmarket or Goodwood last time
12/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/14 – Had 4 or more runs that season
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/14 – Won 3 or more times before
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Had run at Sandown before (4 won)
8/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 –Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Take Cover took this race in 2014 and a close second 12 months ago so no issues on the track and trip. Didn't work out at Ascot last time out as the ground went too soft for him and the draw not ideal. In really good form at home and at this course and on this quicker ground confident of a good run. Tough race, but looks a great e/w price."
David C Griffiths

29/07/16 1st 8/1

"Palmerston - Won well for us two runs back beating a fair yardstick in Fort Jefferson. That was over a mile so the return to this trip after trying 1m2f last time is a big plus. Yes, 5lbs higher than that win and higher grade but the horse is very well at home and I think we head here with a great each-way chance at a nice price. We've a few out today, but this one looks the value e/w bet from all my runners."
Mick Appleby

23/07/16 1st 20/1 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

Sat TV Trends: 23rd July 2016

It’s King George day at Ascot this Saturday, while the C4 cameras also head to York – As always, Andy Newton’s got all the big TV race trends & stats.

 

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)


2.45 – Princess Margaret Juddmonte Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

11/13 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Had won just once before
10/13 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/13 – Won over 6f before
7/13 – Winning favourite
5/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Won by the Hannon yard
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred
7 of the last 10 horses from stall 1 were placed
4 of the last 5 winners came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury


3.20 – Woodford Reserve Handicap Cl2 1m CH4

Only 5 previous runnings
4/5 – Carried 8-8 or more
4/5 – Winners between stalls 9-14
4/5 – Had won just once before
3/5 – Won last time out
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Returned 10/1 or bigger in the betting
2/5 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/5 – Irish bred
1/5 – Winning favourite
William Haggas won the race in 2014
Hughie Morrison won the race in 2012

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3.55 – Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

13/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/13 – Had raced at Ascot previously
13/13 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
11/13 – Won over 7f previously
11/13 – Favourites unplaced
10/13 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
9/13 – Won between 2-4 times previously
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
9/13 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
9/13 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/13 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/13 – Ridden by Jimmy Quinn
0/13 – Favourites
Heavens Guest won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 21/1
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

 

4.30 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f CH4

14/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/14 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
13/14 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
12/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Placed last time out
10/14 – Previous Group 1 winner
8/14 – Won their previous race
8/14 – Had run Ascot before
6/14 – Favourites that won
6/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/14 – Won at Ascot before
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009 & 2010
Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2


York Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


3.00 – Win £5,000 With sportinglife.com Pick 6 Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Carried 9-3 or more
7/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
7/8 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Had won over 7f before
6/8 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/8 – Had won at York before
4/8 – Rated between 73 and 80
4/8 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
3/8 – Returned 4/1 in the betting
2/8 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/8 – Won by the David O’Meara yard
1/8 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 6/1


3.35 – Skybet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y CH4

9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/10 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
7/10 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Had won at least 4 times before
7/10 – Rated between 112 and 117
5/10 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/10 – Had run at York before
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Aged 6 years-old
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Tullius won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1


4.10 – Skybet Dash (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

12/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Carried 8-12 or more
11/12 – Had won between 2-6 times before
11/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 5 or younger
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
8/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/12 – Raced at either Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
8/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Had run at York before
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/12 – Won last time out
7 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more
Tanzeel won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

4.45 - Sky Bet Best Odds Guaranteed EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap) Cl3 1m2f88y

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
9/11 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
9/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Had won over at last 1m2f before
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Raced at either Lingfield, Doncaster, Newcastle & Newbury last time out
8/11 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Rated between 79-84
7/11 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
7/11 – Aged 3 years-old
6/11 – Winning favourites (4 of last 5)
5/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Had won just once before
3/11 – Winners from stall 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Eager Beaver - She has not run a bad race all year and she is in really good form, would love to get her first win under her belt and feel this race gives her a good opportunity."
William Muir

20/07/16 1st 7/2

"Masqueraded - Only wins have been on the AW to date so still some questions to answer on the turf. Hoping the drop back to a mile will suit though and this doesn't look the best race into Selling grade again. A bit to find with 3 or 4 on these terms though so a place might be the best we can hope for."
Gay Kelleway

20/07/16 3rd 25/1

"Attain - Is well-handicapped on the turf at present. He is off his old rating here but has gone up 3lbs in future for his second at Beverley last week. Liam takes off 7lbs too so on these terms must have a good e/w chance."
Julia Feilden

20/07/16 1st 4/1

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2016

Friday's Result :

3.00 Ascot : Afandem @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 5/2 (Raced keenly, pressed winner, ridden over 1f out, edged right and lost place inside final furlong, one paced and beaten by a length and three quarters)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.50 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muthmir at 5/1 BOG

Why?

He was only 8th of 11 and beaten by 4.5 lengths when seen last at Haydock 7 weeks ago, but a return to York and to quicker ground are both positives today.

He also drops down in class from Group 2 competition and he's in good hands with course specialist William Haggas, whose record here at York since 2009 is excellent : 39 winners from 177 (22% SR) runners have yielded level stakes profits of 86.8pts at an impressive ROI of some 49%.

Those figures were valid at the start of play Friday, but the yard had 2 winners from 4 at York on Friday too, that aren't counted in my stats today, but in the context of today's race, my top 10 facts about those 177 runners are...

  • 35/146 (24%) for 99.5pts (+68.2%) from those with 2 to 15 previous runs
  • 35/134 (26.1%) for 98.8pts (+73.8%) in the June to September period
  • 35/130 (26.9%) for 115.5pts (+88.9%) from those with a run in the last 45 days
  • 27/126 (21.4%) for 66.9pts (+54.7%) on Good / Good to Firm ground
  • 31/112 (39.7%) for 100.9pts (+90.1%) at odds of 11/4 to 11/1
  • 20/89 (22.5%) for 39.3pts (+44.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 14/63 (15.2%) for 25.6pts (+40.7%) in Class 1 contests
  • 14/60 (23.3%) for 28.6pts (+47.7%) from those whose last outing was either Gr2, Gr3 or Listed
  • 5/25 (20%) for 17.32pts (+69.3%) in Listed races
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 35.82pts (+511.8%) ridden by Andrea Atzeni

...but for now, the call is a 1pt win bet on Muthmir at 5/1 BOG with any of BetVictor, Coral and/or SkyBet who were offering that price at 5.55pm or you can get 5/1 non-BOG with Betway and/or 32Red if you like, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Sat TV Trends: 9th July 2016

It’s the final day of the Newmarket July Meeting, while the C4 cameras are also at York for the John Smith’s Cup, and Ascot too – with 10 LIVE races in all. As always Andy Newton is on-hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE C4 races.

 

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

3.25 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

13/14 – Had won over 7f or further previously
12/14 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/14 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/14 – Unplaced in their last race
7/14 – Favourites unplaced
7/14 – Winners from stall 9 or higher
3/14 – Won their last race
3/14 – Winning Favourites
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 10/1

4.00 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f CH4

13/14 – Won over at least 6f previously
12/14 – Placed in their last race
11/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
11/14 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
9/14 – Won their latest race
9/14 – Won by either a March or April foal
8/14 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
6/14 – Favourites unplaced
4/14 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/14 – Winners from stall 3
4/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
4/14 – Winning Favourites
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 3)
2/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

4.35 - Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f CH4


Recent July Cup Winners.....

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2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011     Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010    Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009    Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008    Marchand d'Or  (5/2 fav)
2007    Sakhee's Secret  (9/2)
2006    Les Arcs (10/1)
2005    Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004    Frizzante (14/1)
2003    Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002    Continent (12/1)

14 Year July Cup Betting Trends

13/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
11/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
11/14 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
10/14 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
9/14 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/14 – Placed last time out
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Won their previous race
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
2/14 – Irish-trained winners
1/14 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 17/2
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968

5.10 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

14/14 – Won over 7f previously
13/14 – Raced 3 or more times that season
10/14 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
10/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
9/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
8/14 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
7/14 – Winners from stall 15 or higher
7/14 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
6/14 – Placed in their last race
3/14 – Favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.5/1
Heaven’s Guest won the race in 2014


York Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


3.00 - John Smith´s Racing Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

12/12 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
11/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/12 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/12 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/12 – Had won between 2-4 times before
8/12 – Rated 90 or less
8/12 – Priced between 7/1 and 14/1
8/12 – Placed last time out
7/12 – Winning distance – ¾ or less
7/12 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Won by a USA-bred horse
3/12 – Had raced at York before
3/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8.5/1
8 of the last 10 winners came from stall 7 or lower
5 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2 or 3

3.40 - John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f CH4

10/10 – Aged 5 or younger
10/10 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
9/10 – Won from stall 10 or lower
8/10 – Didn’t win their previous race
6/10 – Aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Carried 9-5 or less
5/10 – Had run at York before
4/10 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
4/10 – Luca Cumani-trained horses that finished in the top three
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Continuum won the race in 2014

4.15 – 57th John Smith´s Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y CH4


Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners.......

2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 -  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

14/14 – Aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
11/14 – Came from stall 9 or higher
11/14 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
9/14 – Carried 9-2 or less
9/14 – Top 3 finish in their previous race
9/14 – Aged 4 years-old
7/14 – Officially rated between 99-105
6/14 – Had run at York before
3/14 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
3/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 10.5/1

4.50 - John Smith´s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f CH4

Only 5 previous runnings
Out Do won the race 12 months ago
5/5 – Won over 5f before
5/5 – Placed favourites
5/5 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
5/5 – Rated between 101 and 110
4/5 – Had only won at Handicap class before
4/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/5 – Unplaced last time out
3/5 – Won by a neck
3/5 – Won at York before
2/5 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/5 – Ridden by Phillip Makin


Ascot Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)


2.45 - Totescoop6 Heritage Handicap Cl2 5f CH4

Just 3 previous running
3/3 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1 or bigger
3/3 – Carried 8-10 or more
2/3 – Aged 4 years-old
Trainer Roger Varian won the race 12 months ago

3.15 - Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m CH4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
7/9 – Had won over at least a mile before
7/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/9 – Had raced at Ascot before (1 won)
6/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Previous Group race winner
5/9 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/9 – Aged 4 years-old
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Had won a Group 1 before
3/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 13/2
Trainers Quotes

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"Indus Valley - Won at the track before so no issues on that front and will like the ground - the faster the better for this horse. Well weighted at the moment too. Will need a bit of luck in-running as a hold-up horse, but Kieren should keep him out of trouble - looks a decent e/w price to me."
Lee Carter

05/07/16 1st 9/1

"Dawnieriver - Very competitive race and we need to put a recent poor run behind us - been sent off as favourite the last twice. Probably found the shorter trip against her last time, but before that was a solid third of 9 at Uttoxeter and off a pound lower mark would have a chance if running to that level. Had a month off and seems well at home so not without a chance of being involved."
Michael Scudamore

04/07/16 2nd 20/1

 


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Sat TV Trends: 11th June 2016

More LIVE C4 action This Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown, York and Musselburgh and as always Andy Newton’s got all the key trends & stats to help you narrow down the fields - hopefully these will point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.10 – betstars.uk For Horse Racing Handicap Cl3 1m1f CH4

11/14 – Had won just once before
10/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
9/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
9/14 – Rated between 80-87
9/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Had raced at the track before
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 11/1

 

2.45 – BetStars By Pokerstars Handicap Cl2 1m14y CH4

Only 4 previous runnings
3/4 – Aged 4 or younger
3/4 – Winners carried 9-5 or more
3/4 – Rated between 90-94
3/4 – Winners between stalls 6-9 (inc)
3/4 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
2/4 – Won last time out
1/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Mark Johnston won the race in 2012
Trainer Amanda Perrett has a 20% record with her older horses at the track
Andrea Atzeni is just 1 from 32 riding older horses at the track

 

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3.20 – betstars.uk Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y CH4

11/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
9/11 – Had won over 5f before
9/11 – Placed favourites
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
7/11 – Had won at least 3 times before
6/11 – Came from stall 7 or higher
6/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
5/11 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
2/11 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 4/1

 

York Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.50 – Queen Mother´s Cup (Lady Amateur Riders) (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f CH4

12/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Carried 9-11 or more
11/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/13 – Had run over 1m4f or further previously
10/13 – Had at least 2 previous runs already that season (flat)
10/13 – Rated between 80-89
9/13 – Favourites placed in the top four
9/13 – Had run at York before
9/13 – Won from a single-figure stall
8/13 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
8/13 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
7/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/13 – Winners that came from stalls 3 or 4
4/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby
2/13 – Won by trainer Luca Cumani
2/13 – Ridden by Miss J Coward
0/13 – Placed horses from stall 2
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.4/1
Trainer Brian Ellison won the race 12 months ago

 

2.25 – betstars.uk Home of Spin & Bet Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

1 previous running
Trainer William Haggas has a 20% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 2 from 55 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 25 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 13 from 271 with his older horses at the track
Jockey Jim Crowley is only 1 from 41 when riding older horses at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is only 1 from 52 when riding older horses at the track
Jockey David Nolan is only 1 from 38 when riding older horses at the track

 

3.00 – Best Western Hotels Ganton Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m CH4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Aged 5 or younger
4/4 – Irish bred
3/4 – Placed favourites
3/4 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Had won a Listed (or better) race before
3/4 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
2/4 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/4 – Winning favourites
Top Notch Tonto won the race in 2015
Andrew Balding won the race in 2012
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 3/1

 

3.35 - 888Sport Charity Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

11/11 – Rated between 87-97
9/11 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
9/11 – Had won over 6f before
8/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Won by David Nicholls
2/11 – Won by Tim Easterby (inc 2 of the last 3 runnings)
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

 

Musselburgh Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

3.10 - William Hill Scottish Tartan Trophy (A Consolation For Scottish Sprint Cup) (Handicap) Cl3 5f CH4

Only 2 previous runnings
Pearl Acclaim won the race 12 months ago
The last 2 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Both recent winners carried 9-5 or more
Both winners came from double-figure stalls
Trainer Dandy Nicholls won the race in 2015
Trainer David Baron won the race in 2014
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 30% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Nicholls is just 3 from 68 with his older horses at the track

 

3.45 – William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (A Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f CH4

11/12 – Won over 5f before
10/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 -  Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
9/12 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/12 – Had won between 2-5 times before
8/12 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/12 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
7/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Bryan Smart
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Red Baron won the race in 2015

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Entertaining Ben - The saddle slipped at Brighton last time which was frustrating as he was in great form.  He is still working well at home and I am hoping he can go close today - looks a fair e/w price at around 20/1."
William Muir 07/06/16 1st 25/1

 

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