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Stat of the Day, 14th October 2017

Friday's Result :

8.45 Kempton : Cool Team @ 10/3 BOG WON at 13/8 : Held up mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, soon led, kept on well to win by half a length...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

3.50 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

A Class 2, 2yo handicap (nursery) over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 2 yr old filly who won last time out in a similar Class 2 contest at Newmarket a fortnight ago. Her yard is in great form with 23 winners from 83 (27.7% SR) over the last 30 days and 12 from 43 (27.9%) in the past fortnight alone.

On top of his good recent form, trainer William Haggas tends to do well here on the Knavesmire too, saddling up 54 winners from 243 (22.2% SR) for profits of 96.8pts (+39.8% ROI) since 2009 and these include...

  • those who last ran 1-45 days ago : 49/174 (28.2%) for 145.5pts (+83.6%)
  • those with 2 to 10 previous career runs are 44/173 (25.4%) for 122.7pts (+70.9%)
  • in handicaps : 27/123 (22%) for 47.7pts (+38.8%)
  • LTO winners are 17/65 (26.2%) for 19.6pts (+30.1%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 16/64 (25%) for 18.8pts (+29.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG, which was widely available at 6.55pm on Friday, but if you can get the 3/1 offered by Ladbrokes : go for it! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th Ocotber

NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £84.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Rastrelli), 5 (Kew Gardens) & 4 (Graffiti Master)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Ghaiyyath) & 7 (Purser)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Expert Eye) & 2 (Emaraaty)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Shrewd), 12 (London Pride), 32 (Withhold), 18 (Lagostivegas) & 34 (Aurora Gray)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Nobleman’s Nest), 4 (Prestbury Park) & 7 (Character Witness)

Leg 6 (4.50): 13 (Tirania) & 10 (Spiritual Lady)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: This Listed juvenile event was the Placepot finale last year and it looks just as tough to start off a wonderful card, especially with just a ‘short field’ of seven runners having been declared.  The only course winner is RASTRELLI and though the ground will be riding faster on Saturday, Charlie Appleby’s February foal is worth his place in the field in search of his hat trick.  There is every chance that KEW GARDENS could start off the day to winning effect for Aidan O’Brien, whilst there is no knowing how punch potential lies beneath the saddle regarding John Gosden’s Dubawi representative GRAFFITI MASTER.  New readers might like to know that the term short field related to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won six of the last eleven contests, whilst every winner during the last twelve years scored at 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Rastrelli (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four renewals of the Autumn Stakes have passed since a favourite obliged as you can plainly see below though that said, the last six market leaders have all finished in the frame if you include the joint favourites in 2012.   A few of the represented leading trainers have failed to win this Group 3 event despite 27 renewals, including Aidan O’Brien who appears to feel frustrated as he has only sent two outsiders over to contest the race this time around.  I called the 12/1 winner Best Solution last year and trying to follow up that winner, I’ll go to the other end of the market with Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH who looks a really promising type judged on his victory at the second time of asking over course and distance.  James Doyle’s mount had disappointed as a beaten 6/5 favourite on debut on Town Moor but Charlie’s late April foal made amends in grand style.  PURSER met with traffic problems in the ‘Solario’ at Sandown or John Gosden’s Mizzen Mast coly might otherwise have been coming here on his fourth assignment defending an unbeaten run. If however, is the biggest word in racing.

Prices of win and placed horses in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes (exact science):

2016: 12/1-16/1-11/4*

2015: 4/1-15/8*-9/2

2014: 10/1-33/1-11/4*

2013: 15/2-6/5*-16/1

2012: 5/2**-5/2**-7/1

2011: 8/1-5/1-11/8*

2010: 33/1-9/1-7/2

2009: 9/1-15/2-9/2

2008: 9/4*-11/4-4/1

2007: 4/7*-16/1-5/1

2006: 6/4*-25/1-4/1

2005: 20/1-13/8*-9/1

Record of the course winner in the Autumn Stakes:

1/1—Ghaiyyath (good to soft)

 

3.00: Aidan O'Brien's sends four representatives over to try and snare his fifth winner of the 'Dewhurst' during the last nine years.  Even the maestro might have his work cut out however, with Sir Michael Stoute sounding bullish about the chance of EXPERT EYE, a scenario which Michael has not been prone to voice down the years, especially relating to his two-year-olds. Michael is not one to get too carried away with his representatives and it’s worth noting that Expert Eye’s only other entry at the time of writing is in the Irish 2000 guineas next year.  Acclamation stock tend to run over a maximum of eight furlongs though that said, the sire has produced 19 runners to win over the Derby distance and beyond.  This race should tell us everything we need to know about next year, proving that the January foal wins of course.  SEAHENGE is my idea of Aidan’s best chance in the race, whilst EMARAATY is the pick of the remaining home contingent.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last eleven renewals, whilst nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.

Record of the course winner in the Group 1 ‘Dewhurst’:

1/1—U S Navy Flag (good to soft)

 

3.40: Recent weight, starting price and Cesarewitch age trends have been shot to pieces during the last few years (I try and be as honest as possible) whereby I am less than confident about the outcome this time around.  That said, ten of the last sixteen Placepot positions have been claimed by horses drawn 12 or higher, statistics which include 66/1 and 50/1 winners amongst their number.  Out of interest, six of the last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of 8-11.  I’m offering five horses against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely SHREWD, LONDON PRIDE, WITHHOLD, LAGOSTOVEGAS and AURORA GRAY.  I doubt that I will become involved in trying to name the winner come sun up.

Prices of win and placed horses:

2016: 7/1-50/1-8/1-9/1

2015: 50/1-7/1-9/1-16/1

2014: 10/1-25/1-5/1*-16/1

2013: 66/1-20/1-10/1-20/1

2012: 66/1-7/1*-9/1-14/1

2011: 25/1-16/1-20/1-14/1

2010: 16/1-33/1-50/1-14/1

2009: 9/2*-14/1-16/1-16/1

2008: 50/1-15/2-10/1-7/2*

2007: 14/1-33/1-6/1**-25/1

2006: 9/2*-25/1-100/1-25/1

2005: 10/1-20/1-50/1-25/1

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2004: 16/1-10/1**-50/1-33/1

2003: 12/1-33/1-50/1-8/1

2002: 12/1-16/1-66/1-12/1

2001: 14/1-66/1-33/1-66/1

2000: 11/1-40/1-9/2*-10/1

1999: 7/1-50/1-25/1-100/1

1998: 11/1-14/1-13/2-10/1

1997: 16/1-5/1*-12/1-10/1

Record of the course winners in the Cesarewitch:

1/4—Watersmeet (good to firm)

1/1—Who Dares Wins (good)

1/4—Shrewd (good)

2/3—Star Rider (good & soft)

 

4.15: Simon Crisford has posted 17 winners since the end of July via a decent strike but more importantly, the trainer has snared 73 points of level stake profit into the bargain.  We will not get fat backing NOBLEMAN’S NEST however, albeit Simon has a fine chance of snaring the prize.  Mark Johnston’s hat trick seeker PRESTBURY PARK (surely a horse destined to run under the other code at Cheltenham one day) looks a typically tough stable representative, whilst CHARACTER WITNESS completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.

Favourite factor: Although there has been a seven furlong Nursery on the card for a number of years, this race has been opened up to colts and geldings as well as fillies, whereby it is (quite correctly to be fair) deemed as a new race.  I try and be as flexible as possible, even though that might not come across at times!  However….

 

4.50: I’m trying to work out why (for the life of me) this Listed ‘Bodicea’ event is being classed as a new race.  It’s still a Listed (Class 1) event raced over six furlongs for the fairer gender so what gives?  For the record, I am keeping my stats intact whereby you can choose to follow suit and stay with the (albeit unofficial) history of the race or you can ignore the stats and facts, that is your prerogative.  William Haggas saddled four consecutive winners of this event between 2007/10 and the trainer has offered the green light to TIRANIA on this occasion.  Three-year-olds have won nine of the last twelve renewals for good measure, albeit that stats relates to 12/13 runners this time around.  Others to consider include QUEEN KINDLY and (particularly) SPIRITUAL LADY with Ryan Moore booked to ride.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six contests, whilst eight of the twelve market leaders during the last decade finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Pixieleen (good)

1/1—Spiritual Lady (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – followed in brackets by the number of winners they have saddled at H/Q on Cesarewitch day during the last five years:

7 runners—Mark Johnston (2)

7—Aidan O’Brien (3)

6—Richard Fahey

6—John Gosden (1)

3—Charlie Hills (2)

3—Alan King (1)

3—Hughie Morrison (1)

3—Willie Mullins

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Charlie Appleby (1)

2—Andrew Balding (1)

2—Ralph Beckett

2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (1)

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—William Haggas (1)

2—Richard Hannon (1)

2—Brian Meehan (1)

2—Evan Williams

2—Ian Williams

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

93 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £198.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Hexham: £30.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

York: £57.90 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: This is a new fixture on the calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 13th October

YORK - OCTOBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £829.30 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Tulip Fever), 2 (Beatbox Rhythm) & 15 (Kyllachy Dragon)

Leg 2 (2.45): 11 (Just Hiss), 19 (Highland Colori), 3 (Zwayyan) & 5 (Bravery)

Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Harrogate), 8 (Malitia) & 1 (Equitant)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Gold Star)

Leg 5 (4.30): 12 (Bashiba), 11 (Tylery Wonder) & 4 (Monsieur Joe)

Leg 6 (5.05): 12 (Zatorius) & 5 (Photonics)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby the top horse in the handicap (Zap) is eliminated from my thoughts, whereas a three pound claimer aboard BEATBOX RHYTHM offers connections of Karl Burke’s Beat Hollow colt some hope.  First and foremost, I should point out that Richard Fahey has saddled 13 winners at the two day fixture during the last five years which is a great achievement given the competitive edge at this stage of the season.  Zap is one of Richard’s three entries in this event, though he might be thwarted here by the likes of TULIP FEVER (William Haggas saddled the second placed favourite last year) and KYLLACHY DRAGON alongside the afore-mentioned BEATBOX RHYTHM.

Favourite factor: Just five of the last fourteen favourites have finished in the frame during which time, only two market leaders prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Zap (good to firm)

1/1—Tulip Fever (good to firm)

1/1—International Man (good to firm)

 

2.45: Only the one renewal to work with. though horses were drawn 14-15-12-11 in last year’s 19 runner event which was contested on good ground, the same conditions which have been projected this time around.  Last year’s winner HIGHLAND COLORI has been allotted stall 10/20 twelve months on, a position which not stop him following up successfully if up to the task.  Others under the microscope from preferable positions in the gate include JUST HISS (15), ZWAYYAN (16) and BRAVERY (9).  The reserve nomination is awarded to Baraweez (20)

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished halfway down the field behind horses which filled the frame at 22/1, 12/1, 16/1 & 10/1.

Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/3—Cote D’Azur (good to firm)

1/3—Classic Seniority (good)

1/6—Home Cummons (good)

1/4—Just Hiss (good)

1/5—Highland Colori (good)

 

3.20: The powers that be have this marked down as a new race via the ‘novice agreement’ they brought into effect a while ago.  I have included my stats because not one ounce of difference marks this race (apart from its title), as it is a Class 3 event over five and a half furlongs as was ever the case.  It is up to you whether you take note of the facts, plain and simple.  This might be the race in which Richard Fahey strikes for the first time on the card having declared MALITIA and EQUITANT.  Although Militia is the more fancied runner of the pair, the three pounds that Adam McNamara claims aboard the stable companion should ensure that there is not too much daylight between Richard’s representatives.  Daniel Tudhope has been beavering away this year and though his 16% strike rate is down on the last couple of years, Daniel is on course to beat his personal record figure of 110 in a year, with just another ten gold medallists required to achieve that feat.  His chance aboard HARROGATE is there for all to see, especially if we take Richard Fahey’s pair out of the equation.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame (winner & two silver medallists) to date via six contests.

 

3.55: Nine of the thirteen runners won at the last time of asking, though I have to report half the field last year had the same credentials but failed to land the contest between them.  Had the ground been a little softer here today, I could have given BRIMHAM ROCKS a chance of repeating that scenario but given the conditions, I will nominate THE GRAND VISIR (from a win perspective) to thwart horses seeking to put successive victories together.  GOLD STAR is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has secured a Placepot position to date, albeit without winning the relevant contest.

 

4.30: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and it would come as no great surprise if Nigel Tinkler pulled a rabbit out of the hat via his Iffraj gelding BASHIBA. Five pound claimer Rowan Scott was the last jockey to ride BASHIBA to winning effect, albeit fifteen assignments have come and gone in that time.  Others to consider in another tough race on the card to asses are Paul Migleys pair TYLERY WONDER and MONSIEUR JOE who landed the forecast positions between them the last day at Naas.

Favourite factor:  Two of the last ten renewals has been claimed by favourites of one description or another, whilst four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

Record of course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/5--East Street Revue (good)

3/11—East Street Revue (2 x good & good to soft)

1/4—Carlton Frankie (good)

1/3—Tylery Wonder (good)

2/22—Bogart (good to firm & good to soft)

1/4—Top Boy (good to soft)

 

5.05: I’m not sure if I have ever had a bet on a juvenile to win a race after it has finished second on debut.  Such horses always strike me representing poor value for money at such a tender age, with media types often over reacting for just one half decent run.  That has not stopped me including umpteen hundreds of the said creatures in my Placepot plans however, and this is the case here with ZATORIUS and PHOTONICS having been declared to run.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the York card.

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday followed by the number of winners (in brackets) they have saddled on the corresponding card during the last five years:

11 runners—Tim Easterby (1)

10—Richard Fahey (5)

7—Kevin Ryan

5—David Barron (4)

5—Mick Easterby (1)

5—David O’Meara

5—Nigel Tinkler

4—Roger Fell

3—Michael Appleby

3—Andrew Balding (2)

3—James Bethell

3—William Haggas (2)

3—Brian Meehan (2)

3—Roger Varian

2—Karl Burke (1)

2—Declan Carroll

2—Ann Duffield

2—John Gosden (1)

2—Jedd O’Keeffe

2—Mark Johnston (1)

2—Paul Midgley

2—Lawrence Mullaney

Trainers who have only entered one horse at York on Friday who have saddled one winner apiece are as follows: Julie Camacho, Mick Channon, David C Griffiths, John Quinn and Saeed Bin Suroor

+ 27 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

118 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £493.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £229.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 10th September

FONTWELL - SEPTEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £112.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 4 (Kentford Heiress), 5 (Poetic Lady) & 2 (Miss Spent)

Leg 2 (2.50): 9 (Kiruna Peak), 10 (Newt) & 7 (Ulysses)

Leg 3 (3.25): 4 (Code Of Law) & 6 (Humbel Ben)

Leg 4 (4.00): 4 (Workbench) & 1 (Resolution Bay)

Leg 5 (4.35): 1 (Jackblack), 8 (Thisonetime) & 2 (Amadoue)

Leg 6 (5.10): 4 (Bestwork) & 1 (Shady Glen)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: This meeting marks the start of the NH season (proper) for yours truly, given that I choose this fixture over the competitive racing at York year on year. KENTFORD HEIRESS won this event last year and being only marginally worse off this time around (thanks to the booked claimer), there seems no logical reason to desert the three time (good ground) course winner.  Seamus Mullins has a decent enough record at Fontwell in general terms, whereby the 13/2 quote this morning offers each way value at the very least.  Neil Mulholland has saddled nine winners since the start of August under the NH code (21% strike rate) whereby the declaration of his Worcester winner POETIC LADY demands respect, whilst MISS SPENT cannot be overlooked either.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame thus far, both horses having snared silver medals.

Record of the course winner in the first race:

3/6—Kentford Princess (3 x good)

 

2.50: Jonjo O’Neill sends just the one horse to Fontwell today, though Tidal Watch will need to run better than at Worcester recently to become competitive.  More likely (not obvious) winners include KIRUNA PEAK and NEWT.  Ralph Beckett adds some interest having entered ULYSSES though readers should not get too carried away with the declaration as Ralph’s record under this code stands at 2/69 to date.  One of his four previous runners at Fontwell made the frame however whereby all hope is not lost, from an each way/Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (11 winners), whilst 16 of the last 18 winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less.

 

3.25: Eight of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1 which narrows the field down from nine to six, with CODE OF LAW and HUMBEL BEN preferred to Saffron Prince at the time of writing.  I have just looked at the radar which suggests that rain should not arrive (dangerous statement) at the course by the time this race is contested which will suit connections of CODE OF LAW.  A winner here last time out under fast conditions, Code Of Law has also added two silver medals to his tally via just the four runs on similar ground to date.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 10 renewals have fallen the way of favourites of one type or another, whilst five of the eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the courses winner in the third contest on the card:

1/4—Code Of Law (good to firm)

1/2—Humble Ben (good)

1/8—Houseparty (good)

 

4.00: WORKBENCH should have his conditions and though the stable of Dan Skelton has gone a little quiet this month, his 35% strike rate via 28 winners during the two previous months suggests that it would be churlish to write off Dan’s early season form just yet.  Better off via the official figures here having finished second in the race last year, WORKBENCH has to be considered at the general offer of 8/1 this morning, at least from a Placepot perspective.  Philip Hobbs has saddled three of his last eight runners to winning effect whereby RESOLUTION BAY is considered the main threat, especially and bits and pieces of support are beginning to emerge as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol.

Favourite factor: Search parties were still out looking for the three beaten favourites in this contest before last year’s 3/1 market leader prevailed.

Fontwell record of runners in the fourth event:

3/6—Workbench (3 x good)

2/7—Royal Battalion (good to firm & good to soft)

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1/8—Occasionally Yours (soft)

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won the last seven renewals and yet just two vintage representatives have been declared this time around!  JACKBLACK is the pick of the relevant pair, albeit Brett Johnson’s raider only beat two opponents when successful over course and distance last time out.  THISONETIME and AMADOUE are likely to present challenges at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 13 market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst favourites have won three of the last eight renewals.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1.

Fontwell record of runners in the fifth race:

1/2—Jackblack (good to firm)

1/2—White Valient (good)

 

5.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13, a stat which unfortunately only eliminates one horse (Kings Cross) from my enquiries this time around.  BESTWORK appears to be the logical solution in our last race because as a winner of three of his last four races, the ground should offer no problems for connections today.  Two of the three successes were gained under this afternoon’s projected (good) going, whilst the other recent win was registered on good to soft whereby even if rain arrives, Charlie Longsdon’s six year-old should not be inconvenienced.  SHADY GLEN will no doubt turn in another consistent effort from a Placepot perspective, especially as the top weight has a five pound claimer in the saddle to aid and abet his chance.  Rockchasebullett is the alternative option to consider.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have finished in the frame to date (four winners), whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.

Fontwell record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Rothman (soft)

2/5—Lee Side Lady (soft & heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (1/3 – slight loss)

5—Neil Mulholland (4/13 +7)

4—Seamus Mullins (3/12 +11)

3—Chris Gordon (2/13 – loss of 5 points)

3—Gary Moore (0/25)

2—Tom Lacey (No previous runners)

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/3 +2)

2—Michael Madgwick (No previous runners)

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)

2—David Pipe (1/4 +2)

2—Phuil York (No previous runners)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

York: £18.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th August

YORK – EBOR HANDICAP DAY - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £423.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 5 (Mustashry) & 7 (Make Time)

Leg 2 (2.25): 12 (Bush House), 6 (Master Singer) & 8 (The Grand Visir)

Leg 3 (3.00): 11 (Stormbringer), 8 (Nobleman’s Quest) & 5 (Headway)

Leg 4 (3.35): 20 (Magic Circle), 17 (Wild Hacked) & 11 (Star Storm)

Leg 5 (4.10): 12 (Falabelle), 13 (Formidable Kitt) & 8 (To Wafij)

Leg 6 (4.40): 6 (Weekend Offender), 16 (Brorocco) & 13 (Storm King)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last 13 renewals and yet MUSTASHRY is the only vintage representative in the line up on this occasion.  If this were an NH event with similar trends in place on a big race day, Paul Nicholls would be all over it like a disease, not wanting just to trainer the winner, but also the second and the third!  That is one of the main differences between the codes, in that NH trainers follow the trends more, no matter what ‘media types’ would have you believe.  Fortunately Sir Michael Stoute is wise to the ‘edge’ this time around and I expect Michael’s recent Chelmsford winner to transfer his A/W form to turf successfully.  MAKE TIME is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest ahead of MONDIALISTE.

Favourite factor: Five of the last thirteen favourites have scored.  The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

Course record in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes:

1/3—Master The World (good)

1/4—Mondaliste (good)

 

2.25: 13 of the last 14 winners of the 'Melrose' carried weights of 9-4 or less whereby my speculative quartet against the field consists of MASTER SINGER, HERE AND NOW, BUSH HOUSE and THE GRAND VISIR.  All four horses are expected to outrun their current odds, with 16/1 about BUSH HOUSE arguably being the value for money call if you wanted yours truly to name one individual.  Hugo Palmer’s Canford Cliffs gelding is closely match with Bin Batutta on earlier form this season and yet Jo Gordon’s mount is twice the price of the Godlphin raider.  The other point to consider is that John Gosden’s only runner on the card is MASTER SINGER which makes for interesting reading to say the very least.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last 16 favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium during which time, whilst the last eight winners have scored at prices ranging between 8/1 & 28/1.

 

3.00: Kevin Ryan has secured the two of the last five renewals of this ‘Gimcrack‘ event (last year’s stable representative was pulled up), also having saddled Aamadeus Wold to score twelve years ago.  Kevin’s recent Redcar winner STORMBRINGER could be the ‘dark horse’ in the line up, though I trust Redcar form as much Arsenal’s defence these days.  Kevin becomes ‘attached’ to juvenile races when he gets his claws into the relevant contests and given the ammunition he has back at the ranch, his decision to offer the green light to his Dutch Art representative is good enough for me, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  Others to consider include Mark Johnston’s typically tenacious juvenile CARDSHARP alongside potential improvers in HEADWAY and NOBLEMAN’S QUEST.

Favourite factor:  Only two favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, albeit eleven of the last twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Eight of the sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

4-10-7 (10 ran-good)

9-5-4 (8 ran-good)

5-6-9 (9 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

6-7-23 (8 ran-good)

1-4-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

4-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-2-4 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

9-7-6 (13 ran-good)

2-4-3 (11 ran-soft)

9-5-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-4-1 (11 ran-good)

9-7-2 (9 ran-good)

2-5-3 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5-8 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

 

3.35: The number of three-year-old declarations in the Ebor Handicap has dropped, with only the very best vintage representatives able to take their place in the line-up which disappoints yours truly to a fashion. The last junior winner was recorded in 2001 and once again, three-year-olds are conspicuous only by their absence on this occasion.  The 2015 seven-year-old winner was the first older horse (seven or more) to win in over 35 years.  12 of the last 15 winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only two winners drawn in single figures during the study period. The last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests.  Taking the facts and stats into account, my ‘short list’ for the contest consists of MAGIC CIRCLE, WILD HACKED, NAKEETA and STAR STORM.  I immediately had the thought that MAGIC CIRCLE could be ‘thrown in’ for his next race when Ralph Beckett’s five year-old won the other day, without realising at the time that he was still entered in this event.  Getting in off the bottom mark in the race suggests to yours truly that the current 9/1 quote might just be the subject of a right old gamble leading up to flag fall.  We shall see, given that stall five does present us with a negative factor.  The reserve nomination is offered to LORD YEATS who just misses out via his mark in the handicap having done us a fine favour earlier in the season.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via the last 18 renewals with 10 market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

Course winners in the Ebor Handicap:

1/1—Lord Yeats (soft)

1/2—Scarlet Dragon (good)

4/11—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

2/2—Magic Circle (good & good to soft)

 

4.10: Second and third favourites have decent records in this event of late, whilst the likes of FALABELLE, FORMIDABLE KITT and TO WAFIJ boast claims from my viewpoint in another difficult race to assess on the card.  The latter named Roger Varian raider has not done a great deal wrong thus far whereby it could be argued that Roger’s Kodiac colt could be given another chance at a half decent price.  The first named pair both hail from stables which have saddled winners this week (I’m writing this column before racing took place on Friday), whereby the trio should give us a decent run for our collective Placepot monies, if we are fortunate enough to be in the mix this late in the day.

Favourite factor:  Three favourites have won via the last 18 renewals, whilst 12 of the other 16 market leaders failed to reach the frame.  Only one favourite has obliged via 12 renewals during the last 13 years, though 10 of those gold medallists were returned at a top price of 17/2.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-8-1 (8 ran-good)

8-4-7 (9 ran-good)

1-6-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (6 ran-soft)

3-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

10-1-4 (10 ran-good)

9-13-6 (13 ran-good)

2-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2-7 (10 ran-good)

6-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

4-6-7 (10 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-soft)

2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-9 (10 ran-good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

8-4-2 (8 ran-good)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

7-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good)

Course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, whilst securing 24 of the last 47 available toteplacepot positions.  Vintage representatives are 6/4 to improve the ratio via eight relevant declarations this time around.  11 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby a value for money ‘short list’ of WEEKEND OFFFENDER, BROROCCO and STORM KING emerges.  The latter named David Griffiths raider does not fit the vintage trend but David knows how to place his horses well enough to include his hat trick seeker in the equation. It might be as well to consider David’s impressive 3/7 stats here at York at the time of writing, with the trainer boasting 19 points of level profit stakes for good measure.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to UAE PRINCE.

Favourite factor:  Ten of the last nineteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which includes five winners during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a furlongs):

2-12-13-6 (16 ran-good)

15-7-17 (15 ran-good)

9-16-5 (15 ran-good)

10-5-6 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-11-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)

7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)

14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)

14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)

8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-4-2 (9 ran-good)

16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)

1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)

5-4-11 (11 ran-good)

3-9-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-14-9-4 (16 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4--Snoano (good to soft)

1/5—Weekend Offender (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Saturday:

7 runners—Richard Fahey

7—Mark Johnston

7—David O’Meara

4—Kevin Ryan

4—Sir Michael Stoute

3—Andrew Balding

3—Declan Carroll

3—Tim Easterby

3—William Haggas

3—Iain Jardine

3—Hugo Palmer

3—Saeed Bin Suroor

3—Roger Varian

2—David Barron

2—Ralph Beckett

2—John Best

2—Clive Cox

2—Tom Dascombe

2—Michael Dods

2—Mick Easterby

2—David C Griffiths

2—Richard Hannon

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

113 declared runners 

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Goodwood: £253.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newmarket: £59.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Redcar: £203.50 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £60.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Cartmel: £51.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.25 York : Madeline @ 3/1 BOG - 2nd at 7/2 : Keen early, tracked leaders, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and stayed on to go 2nd inside final furlong, not pace to challenge...

Friday's pick also goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dartmouth @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

On a day when there aren't a lot of horses that jump out from a statistical point of view, this is a fairly straightforward/obvious pick. At 50%, he has easily the best strike rate of all 9 runners in this contest, after winning 8 of 16 starts to date and in those 16 races so far, he is...

  • 7/12 in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 5/10 in non-handicap contests
  • 5/7 under Ryan Moore
  • 4/7 in Group races
  • 4/4 at odds of 5/2 to 4/1
  • 3/4 going left handed
  • 3/3 beyond 1m4f
  • 2/3 at Group 2
  • and 1/1 here at York

In addition to his own suitability, his yard is in good form and despite not having a winner here on Thursday they'd landed 10 winners from 28 in the previous fortnight and 5 from 14 in the previous week.

Plus Sir Michael Stoute's runners here at York are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 32pts (+91.3% ROI) over the past couple of seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dartmouth @ 4/1 BOG which was offered in a half dozen places at 6.05pm on Thursday, whilst Hills were best priced at 9/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 25th August

YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 3 - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.50 (9 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 4 (Fidaawy), 1 (Appeared) & 9 (Game Starter)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Dai Harraild), 9 (Thomas Hobson) & 8 (St Michel)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Jalotta), 7 (Mix And Mingle) & 15 (Daban)

Leg 4 (3.35): 12 (Lady Aurelia) & 9 (Battaash)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Commander Han), 6 (Dowell) & 9 (Gabr)

Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Battered), 7 (Mojito) & 10 (Harroob)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eleven contests or eight of eleven if you prefer, as two vintage representatives dead heated in 2015!  The last nine winners have carried 9-3 or more which was extremely relevant to last year’s year’s contest, as just two horses passed the weight 'qualification' which included the 5/1 winner. Indeed as a four-year-old, Barsanti was the only horses to possess tick in the two relevant boxes.  That honour this year is bestowed upon 14/1 chance FIDAAWY from Sir Michael Stoute’s in form yard whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  The other three horses via the weight trends all have win and place claims on the best of their form, namely APPEARED, RED GALILEO and ERIK THE RED.  If the weight stats go base over apex on this occasion, the joker in the pack would probably prove to be the unexposed Godpolohin representative GAME STARTER.

Favourite factor: One clear and two joint favourites have won via the last fourteen renewals, with four winners scoring at odds ranging between 33/1 and 50/1. That said, six of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (12 furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

2-8-4 (15 ran-good to firm_

10-8-19-1 (17 ran-good to soft - dead heat 1st place)

6-18-4-5 (16 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

17-14-3-4 (19 ran-good)

2-1-4-11 (20 ran-good to soft)

10-8-17-2 (16 ran-good)

12-10-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

16-8-6-4 (19 ran-good)

11-9-8-1 (19 ran-good to soft)

8-14-16-9 (18 ran-good)

19-3-1-17 (21 ran-good)

6-19-7-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

11-16-12-13 (20 ran-good)

11-14-4-9 (20 ran-good)

10-7-3-15 (18 ran-good)

6-4-3-16 (18 ran-good)

10-8-14 (14 ran-good)

14-4-10 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Appeared (good)

1/5—Mukhayyem (good to firm)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests whilst securing ten of the last twenty three available toteplacepot positions, despite the vintage not having been represented in two of the last three years. Course winner DAI HARRAILD and ST MICHEL appear to be the pick of this year’s relevant trio, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  Willie Mullins has given THOMAS HOBSON a rest since his two races within the space of five days at Royal Ascot.  The successful first sortie in the Ascot Stakes offered an impressive performance to say the least and it might have been asking too much to take in the ‘Queen Alexandra’ over an additional furlongs later that week.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 15 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 19 contests.  13 of the 19 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Course winners in the Lonsdale Cup:

1/1—Dartmouth (soft)

1/1—Dai Harraild (good to firm)

1/2—Sheikhzayedroad (good to firm)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests in a race which was held on the Saturday of the four day fixture until a few of years ago.  Only two vintage representative have been declared this year which I cannot understand, though upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that both MIX AND MINGLE and VISCOUNT BARFIELD can outrun their respective prices of 14/1 and 33/1 at the time of writing.  JALLOTA finished third in this race last year and runs off just a one pound lower mark this time around off the same weight.  Charlie Hills still remains enthusiastic about this horse and boasting a 40% strike rate this venue on good going, JALOTTA is the win and place option I will be taking. Others to consider in a tough heat include DABAN and MUBTASIM.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won via the last nineteen renewals, whilst fifteen market leaders have reached the frame in the process.  Favourites of one description or another have won the last three renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last nine years was sent off at 7/1.

Draw factor' (7 furlongs):

7-4-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-3-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-good)

3-8 (6 ran-soft)

8-5-11 ( 9 ran-good to soft)

8-6-3 (11 ran-good)

6-15-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

11/12 (dead heat)-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

3-1-8 (14 ran-good)

6-4-8 (10 ran-soft)

5-4-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-11-6 (11 ran-soft)

8-4-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-5-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (8 ran-good)

7-8-9 (11 ran-good)

4-10-5 (11 ran—good)

6-2 (6 ran-firm)

6-3-2 (9 ran-good)

Course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gordon Lord Byron (good to soft)

1/1—Aeolus (good)

2/5—Jalotta (2 x good)

1/4—So Believed (good)

1/2—Viscount Barfield (good to firm)

 

3.35: People have been suggesting to me that I have been less than respectful to supposed ‘top notch‘ sprinters in recent years but let’s have a look at the facts shall we.  Sharpo achieved the true sense of a hat trick back in the eighties, whilst other brilliant speedsters to win include Never So Bold, Lochsong and the truly outstanding Dayjur.  The last two-year-old winner of the race (there have only been two juvenile winners during the last 37 years) was Kingsgate Native back in 2007 though no two-year-old raiders have been declared this time around.  Finally, we look to have a race to live up to the billings of ‘yesteryear’, with the flying filly LADY AUERLIA being challenged by BATTAASH.  The ground should be perfect for a fast run race by tomorrow afternoon accord to the weather experts, whereby there should be no excuses offered by beaten connections.  If you want a really speculative type to carry your each way cash, TAKE COVER would be the call.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Five favourites landed the ‘Nunthorpe’ in successive seasons between 1999 and 2003, though 12 of the other 15 market leaders failed to add to the record during the study period.  Just six of those beaten favourites managed to snare additional toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last ten winners scored at 100/1-40/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-9/1-15/2.

Draw factor (5 furlongs):

7-4-12 (19 ran-good)

10-4-5 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

8-5-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

8-10-1 (19 ran-good)

11-15-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-13-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-11-9 (16 ran-good to firm)

13-7-16 (16 ran-good)

6-16-2 (14 ran-soft)

8-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-11-15 (12 ran-soft)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

15-16-11 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-8-3 (10 ran-good)

1-14-10 (13 ran-good)

13-1-3 (16 ran-good)

2-4-8 (17 ran-firm)

Course winners in the ‘Nunthorpe’:

1/1—Alpha Delphini (good)

2/5—Duke Of Firenze (good to firm & soft)

1/3—Profitable (good)

3/6—Take Cover (2 x good & soft)

1/1—Marsha (good)

 

4.15: There are worse outsiders on the card than the Champagne Stakes and the Royal Lodge entry COMMANDER HAN I’ll wager, especially with Kevin Ryan boasting a much better record with his juveniles here at York than with his older runners.  Indeed, Kevin's strike rate with two-year-olds during the last five years at York stands at 17% via 19 winners at the time of writing, compared to a ratio of 4% via six winners with his older raiders.  Others to consider in something of a lottery include two of the runners with experience, namely DOSWELL and GABR.

Favourite factor:  Five of the eight favourites (via seven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions (two 15/8 & 6/4 winners) in a race which has been revamped in recent years.

Draw factor (7 furlongs):

2-16-12 (18 ran-good to soft)

10-7-12 (16 ran-good)

2-10-13 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-4-8 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-12-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

 

4.50: Eleven of the fourteen available toteplacepot positions thus far have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum weight of 9-2 and though four renewals hardly constitutes a trend, this self-confessed 'anorak' has to have something to cling to in offering an 'edge', especially when the figures include three (33/1-16/1-5/1) of the four winners.  The Haggas pair BATTERED and MOJICO and HORROOB will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale, with BALESTRA offered up as the overnight reserve.

Favourite factor: All three (5-1-4/1-11/4) favourites had finished out with the washing before two of the three 5/1 co favourites landed the forecast between them twelve months ago.  The third market leader was well in arrears however.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2--Syphax (good to firm)

1/5--Battered (soft)

1/3--Appointed (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday and their number of winners on the corresponding day at York during the last six years:

6 runners—William Haggas (2 winners)

6—Charlie Hills (1 winner)

5—Mark Johnston

5—Roger Varian (1 winner)

4—Tim Easterby (1 winner)

4—Richard Fahey (1 winner)

4—Sir Michael Stoute

3—Mick Easterby

3—Richard Hannon

3—David O’Meara (1 winner)

3—Kevin Ryan (1 winner)

2—Andrew Balding (1 winner)

2—Clive Cox (1 winner)

2—Ed Dunlop

2—John Gosden

2—David C Griffiths

2—Tony Martin

2—Hugo Palmer (1 winner)

2—Sir Mark Prescott

2—David Simcock

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3 winners)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

92 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £35.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

Goodwood: £89.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Hamilton: £1,716.90 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unoplaced

Salisbury: £610.80 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Ffos Las: £70.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.15 Kempton : Phalawarba @ 4/1 BOG - 3rd at 7/2 : Raced wide headway to lead over 5f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, beaten by a length...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Madeline @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Wow! Nosebleed time for me at the rarified atmosphere of Group racing, but this 2 yr old filly has enough about her to drag me away from my usual Class 5 provincial handicaps!

She's 2 from 4 so far, including 2 from 3 at this 6f distance and won a Listed race last time out almost five weeks ago.

Trainer Roger Varian / July-October / 2 yr olds with just 2-5 career runs / No jockey claim / ran in a non-handicap LTO = 22/91 (24.2% SR) for 71.9pts (+79% ROI) over the past five seasons, from which...

  • at 5-7.5 furlongs : 20/77 (26%) for 76.2pts (+99%)
  • in non-hcps : 17/73 (23.3%) for 40.1pts (+55%)
  • on turf : 19/72 (26.4%) for 63.9pts (+88.7%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 20/70 (28.6%) for 82.1pts (+117.3%)
  • females are 12/50 (24%) for 57.7pts (+115.4%)
  • ridden by Andrea Atzeni : 9/37 (24.3%) for 32.4pts (+87.5%)
  • in fillies' races : 8/36 (22.2%) for 42.8pts (+118.9%)
  • and at Class 1 : 5/21 (23.8%) for 33.8pts (+160.9%)

Jockey Andrea Atzeni has 14 winners from 67 (20.9% SR) over the last 30 days and is 6/30 (20%) in the last week and when riding for Roger Varian here at York : 7/28 (25% SR) for 8.65pts (+30.9% ROI) over the last four seasons with those runners priced at 15/8 to 6/1 winning 7 of 17 (41.2%) for profits of 19.65pts at an ROI of 115.6%.

...but, for now, it's... a 1pt win bet on Madeline @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday August 23rd

YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £51.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (Edward Lewis), 5 (Orion’s Bow), 2 (Moviestar) & 4 (Line Of Reason)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Dee Ex Bee), 5 (Fleet Review) & 8 (Lansky)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cracksman) & 8 (Venice Beach)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Churchill) & 3 (Ulysses)

Leg 5 (4.15): 15 (Theydon Grey), 10 (My Reward) & 11 (Oceane)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Zap), 6 (Green Fortune) & 13 (Areen Faisal)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Seven of the eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 in the opening event, whilst high numbers have generally been favoured when the ground is riding on the fast side.  Only seven of the 20 declarations qualify via the weigh trend this time around.  With conditions (hopefully) set to favour the top stalls early at the meeting at the very least, the likes of EDWARD LEWIS, ORION’S BOW and MOVIESTAR post ticks in both of the relevant boxes, with LINE OF REASON (trap 3) added into the mix as last year’s gold medallist broke from stall five.  Paul Midgley (LINE OF REASON) has saddled three horses to finish in the frame on day one of the meeting during the last six years and on each occasion, the Placepot positions were claimed in this event.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events.

Draw factor (five and a half furlongs – most recent result listed first):

5-2-19-4 (20 ran-good to firm)

5-3-7-6 (20 ran-good to soft)

15-8-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10-5 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-18-13-15 (19 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

15-16-8 (15 ran-good)

18-13-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/10—Out Do (2 x good)

1/6—Moviestar (soft)

1/3—Gracious John (good)

1/13—Line Of Reason (good)

2/5—Thesme (2 x good)

3/15—Hoof It (good to firm)

1/8—Robot Boy (good)

1/3—Shamson (good)

 

2.25: Trainer Mark Johnston (DEE EX BEE) is looking to win the race for the fourth time, albeit his last winner was recorded way back in 2004 which for a trainer of Mark's distinction, is somewhat surprising.  Aidan O'Brien's two victories in the contest emerged way before Mark's last gold medallist whereby FLEET REVIEW would not be winning out of turn. Both trainers are saddling their fair share of winners just now, though they can hardly the match the recent Jeremy Noseda ratio of 4/5, his loser having finished second behind a Sir Michael Stoute hot-pot on Monday.  Jeremy saddles LANSKY with win and place claims after a debut success at Winsdor though as a son of Dark Angel, some more showers would not have gone amiss for connections of this ‘Dewhurst’ entry. Accordingly, DEE EX BEE and FLEET REVIEW are marginally preferred from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 17 winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less (eight winning favourites), whilst 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

6-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to firm)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-7-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

9-3 (7 ran-good)

7-10-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

9-4 (7 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (6 ran-good)

7-2-3 (9 ran-good)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

2-4 (5 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-4-6 (9 ran-good)

Record of the course winners in the 'Acomb':

1/1—Ulshaw Bridge (good)

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1/1—Wells Farhh Go (good to soft)

 

3.00: Aidan O’Brien (whose previous – only - success in this event was gained back in 2003 with Powerscourt before last year’s victory with Idaho) confuses matters given that the popular Irish trainer saddles three of the eight runners (three of seven the previous year without success), with the Chester Vase bronze winner VENICE BEACH expected to lead his two stable companions home on this occasion.  Whether any of Aidan's runners will be able to cope with CRACKSMAN is debateable however, with John Gosden’s Frankel colt gaining the bronze medal at Epsom before going one better to snare silver at Curragh in the two Derby events at the tracks this year.  CRACKSMAN surely deserves to get his first Group race under his belt here.

Favourite factor: 15 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

 

3.35: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 14 of the last 20 renewals of the 'Juddmonte' between them, with the four-year-olds leading their senior rivals 10-4 in the process.  This is the race in which Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard in the inaugural year of 1972.  Since then the 45 renewals have produced the following vintage trends; 3YO: 15 wins--4YO: 21 wins--5YO: 9 wins.  That said, the three-year-olds might gain the day on this occasion with BARNEY ROY and CHURCHILL having been declared, though Sir Michael Stoute will be just as confident as the other connections I’ll wager, having offered the green light to his four-year-old representative ULYSSES who is seemingly still progressing from race to race. ULYSSES ran out of gas at Ascot in the ‘King George’ last time out whereby this drop back in trip will suit.  If you fancy the main protagonists to be thwarted, CLIFFS OF MOHER and SHUTTER SPEED (could have done with more juice in the ground) appear to be the pick of the opposition.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders have won this event during the last 19 years alongside a joint favourite. 14 of the 20 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Every winner during the previous 11 years had been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, before Arabian Queen scored at 50/1 to inflict one of just two defeats during the career of Golden Horn (4/9) in the contest two years ago.

Record of course winners in the 'Juddmonte' field:

1/1—My Dream Boat (good to soft)

1/1—Shutter Speed (soft)

 

4.15: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the eight contests thus far, with THEYDON GREY deserving top billing, the four-year-old coming to the gig on a four timer.  Georgia Cox’s mount receives the benefit of the five pound claimer in the saddle who remains great value for the allowance.  Throw in the fact that William Haggas is by far the most successful trainer at the meeting during the last six years (sixteen winners) and THEYDON GREY jumps off the page.  MY REWARD cannot be overlooked given his record of two gold medals and one of the silver variety in races contested over two miles or more, whilst last year’s winner OCEANE completes my trio against the field.   Trainer Alan King looks to have mapped this race out for his five-year-old gelding again, given that OCEANE is only one pound ‘wrong’ compared to twelve months ago taking the official rating and weight into consideration.

Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include two (9/2 & 5/2) winners.

Course winners in the marathon contest:

2/5—Yorkidding (good)

1/1—Saigon City (good to firm)

1/5—Shrewd (good)

1/1—Magic Cirsle (good)

1/2—Oceane (good to firm)

1/2—Edge Of Sanity (good to firm)

3/4—Theydon Grey (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.55: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners of the race and comes to the party on a hat trick this time around. Stable companion AREEN FAISAL will be preferred my many of Richard’s supporters with Paul Hanagan doing the steering, but has Richard demanded the services of a claimer in order for ZAP to run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap?  GREEN FORTUNE is the other William Haggas runner on the card and with Willie being one of four trainers who has saddled three winners on the first day of the meeting during the last six years, his Sayif colt boasts definite claims. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to KILAGIA who represents Mark Johnston who probably deserves to win the race having saddled the second (20/1), third (10/1) and fourth (50/1) placed runners twelve months ago!

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via 15 renewals of this two-year-old handicap.  Six of the last nine winners have scored at 33/1-33/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.

Course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Zap (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

8 runners—Mark Johnston (1/23 – loss of 12 points)

6—Aidan O’Brien (0/1)

4—Richard Fahey (3/81 – loss of 62 points)

4—David O’Meara (4/54 - +18)

3—Andrew Balding (3/8 - +27)

3—Tim Easterby (8/49 - +41)

3—Richard Hannon (0/13)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/29 – loss of 21 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (3/13 - +13)

2—Mick Channon (0/9)

2—Roger Charlton (0/2)

2—Clive Cox (0/1)

2—Michael Easterby (0/8)

2—John Gosden (1/5 – loss of 3 points)

2—William Haggas (11/27 - +31)

2—Charlie Hills (0/9)

2—Iain Jardine (1/7 - +14)

2—Paul Midgley (1/17 – loss of 2 points)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/10)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £73.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £168.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £39.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Kempton: £185.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 29th July

ASCOT - JULY 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £341.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Spring Cosmos) & 5 (Nyaleti)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Masham Star), 4 (Naval Warfare), 6 (Pealer) & 5 (Mustarrid)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Fastnet Tempest), 4 (Remarkable) & 5 (Above The Rest)

Leg 4 (3.35): 10 (Enable) & 2 (Highland Reel)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 3 (Being There)

Leg 6 (4.45): 8 (Imperial State), 13 (Tommy G), 2 (Supersta) & 5 (Georgian Bay)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: NYALETI looks a tad short around the 7/4 mark at the time of writing, albeit Mark Johnston’s filly will be included in my Placepot mix alongside SPRING COSMOS and (possibly) DANCE DIVA.  If I had to have a bet from a win perspective, SPRING COSMOS would have to be the value for money call at 5/1 even though Indicia let the form down to a fashion at this venue yesterday.  SPRING COSMOS still holds an entry for Wednesday’s Goodwood Group 3 ‘Molecomb’ event, whereby you should keep an eye on the non-runners board in case Charlie Appleby believes the ground is too soft when he arrives at the track today.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won during the last fourteen years alongside two joint favourites.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

2.25: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-8 which eliminates half the field (6/12) if you believe in trends.  MASHAM STAR appeals as one of the better each way bets on the day, especially as Mark Johnston has won with two 33/1 chance on this card in recent years, albeit not in this particular race.  MASHAM STAR handles the ground and runs off the same mark as when runner up two starts ago in the same grade.  Others to consider include NAVAL WARFARE, PEALER and MUSTARRID who is weighted to beat the favourite for this event (Century Dream) according to my abacus.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have finished in the frame by securing gold and silver medals.

 

3.00: I made a strong case for 33/1 winner Galician four years ago, whilst Heavy Metal was the first horse mentioned in dispatches at the same price twelve months on! Four-year-olds have won 12 of the last 17 renewals, whilst 15 of the last 19 winners have scored at 9/1 or more.  11 of the last 13 gold medallists have carried weights of 8-9 or more and adding all the stats and facts together produces a short list of FASTNET TEMPEST, REMARKABLE and ABOVE THE REST.

Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourites have won via eighteen renewals to date, whilst just five of the twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

1/8—Buckstay (good)

1/3—Yuften (good)

1/11—Squats (good to firm)

1/3—Fastnet Tempest (good to firm)

2/15—Heaven’s Guest (soft & good to soft)

2/14—Jack Dexter (good to soft & soft)

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eleven renewals during the last fourteen years in the ‘King George‘, the other three contests having been secured by three-year-olds.  Six consecutive favourites scored between 2004 and 2009, though there was a gap of six years until the next market leader obliged twelve months ago.  There is no doubting that dual Oaks winner ENABLE (by an aggregate of ten and a half lengths) deserves her place at the head of the betting though once again. HIGHLAND REEL is being offered at a price which defies belief for a horse which has answered so many questions against him positively.  Granted, conditions today might stop Ryan Moore’s mount from actually winning but there will be tens of 5/1 chances today that have less chance of scoring that Aidan O’Brien’s fine servant.  A similar (slightly shorter) price is available about John Gosden’s ‘second string’ JACK HOBBS but by comparison to the Aidan’s raider, the 2015 Irish Derby winner still has much to prove, albeit this surface will suit compared to when ‘Jack’ contested a Royal Ascot assignment five weeks ago.  Any further rain before flag fall (which is entirely possible) might shorten up the current 28/1 price about MY DREAM BOAT.  If the wet stuff does not evolve, BENBATI could outrun his 16/1 price tag.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last sixteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the last eighteen gold medallists have emerged via the front five in the betting.

Record of course winners in the 'King George':

1/1—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

2/3—Highland Reel (2 x good to form)

1/1—Idaho (good to firm)

1/2—My Dream Boat (soft)

1/1—Benbati (good to firm)

 

4.10: ‘Team Hannon‘ have won two of the last five renewals and there is every chance that course and distance winner TIGRE DU TERRE can improve the ratio further still.  A facile winner at the first time of asking on good ground, it could be argued that only soft conditions might stop Richard’s Le Havre colt from following up successfully.  By comparison, the victory of BEING THERE at the second time of asking was hardly convincing though time and again, proven seven furlong winners make a mockery of the form book.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have finished nearer last than first to date.  That said, four of the last eight market leaders have obliged.

Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/1—Tigre Du Terre (good)

 

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4.45: Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 18 contests, whilst you should always look out for pilots which ride winners of these races (for lady riders) on a regular basis. Putting those stats and facts together produces a short list of IMPERIAL STATE, TOMMY G, SUPERSTA and GEORGIAN BAY.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Majestic Moon.  If you are still in trouble after the Placepot races, I can pass on an each way word for Zambeasy in the last race at Ascot today (5.20) at around the 16/1 mark, especially as trainer Philip Hide has won with three of his last five runners.  Zambeasy acts under these conditions for good measure.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), whilst the returned prices of winners include those at 33/1-33/1-20/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-11/1 during the study period.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/9—Majestic Moon (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by relevant winning prices for trainers who have saddled winners on this corresponding (‘King George’) card during the last five years:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (1 winner at 7/1)

6—John Gosden (1 winner at 7/2)

4—Charlie Appleby

4—William Haggas (2 winners at 10/1 & 15/8*)

4—Mark Johnston (4 winners at 33/1, 33/1, 2/1* & 7/4*)

3—Andrew Balding

3—Karl Burke

3—Jim Goldie

3—David O’Meara

3—Kevin Ryan

3—Ian Williams (1 winner at 14/1)

2—Michael Appleby

2—George Baker

2—David Barron

2—Roger Charlton (1 winner at 4/6*)

2—Richard Hannon (1 winner at 7/4)

2—Gary Moore

2—Aidan O’Brien (1 winner at 13/8*)

2—George Scott

2—Saeed Bin Suroor

Trainers who have 1 runner at the meeting who have saddled winners during the last five years:

1—Sir Michael Stoute (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1)

1—Clive Cox (2/1*)

1—Simon Crisford (13/8*)

1—Michael Mullineaux (16/1)

+ 29 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £297.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £256.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £33.70 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £265.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Salisbury: £24.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £174.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 28th

ASCOT - JULY 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:

Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Expressly), 11 (Stream Song) & 4 (Indicia)

Leg 2 (2.10): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 8 (Strategist)

Leg 3 (2.45): 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (UAE King)

Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Mittens), 3 (Nathra) & 7 (On Her Toes)

Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Red Galileo), 6 (Tawddea) & 1 (Galapiat)

Leg 6 (4.25): 9 (Soie D’Leau), 3 (Yalta), 10 Shamshon) & 11 (Coofitch)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: INDICIA will be the first name on many lips this morning, though bookmakers have made wonderful profits down the years when punters plunge on juveniles who have finished second on their debuts, only to get turned over as favourites next time out.  With EXPRESSIY and (arguably) JOUSY having also been declared however, it is debatable if INDICIA will be returned as the market leader in a typically warm Ascot two-year-old contest.  STREAM SONG also catches the eye at an each way price at the foot of the list in the familiar George Strawbridge (white with a green hoop) colours.

Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ascot card via the ‘novice status’ of races brought in by the BHA around 18 months ago.

 

2.10: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick and given the amount of juveniles in his yard to choose from, we can suppose that MAGHWEER is among the top ranked two-year-old at base camp this season.  I’ve had to stop in my tracks as Richard’s raider has been scratched from the contest as I write.  No doubt Maghweer is one to keep an eye on.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MYTHICAL MAGIC and STRATEGIST are now probably the safest options from a Placepot viewpoint given that we have a ‘short field’ to assess.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Last year’s wording before the 5/2 favourite obliged; Although winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence during the last 15 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1.

 

2.45: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this Class 2 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig last year!  Thankfully Roger Varian (UAE KING) and Mark Johnston (MISTER MANDURO) are wise to the stats this time around and this pair are expected to duel all the way to the line from my viewpoint.  Mark Johnston has saddled no less than ten winners at this two day fixture during the last five years whereby from a value for money perspective at least, I’m taking MISTER MANDURO to marginally win the day.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include seven successful favourites.

 

3.20: Three-year-olds have now secured 11 of the last 15 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests. Little wonder then that two of the three-year-olds have attract plenty of each way support overnight, namely the progressive pair MITTENS and ON HER TOES.  Both horses are guaranteed places in my Placepot mix, though the softened ground might have gone against Tisbutadream who would otherwise have been added into the mix.  John Gosden’s NATHRA is elevated into the equation accordingly.  A winner on soft and good to soft ground on both of her previous seasonal debut assignments, Frankie’s mount would take the beating if cherry ripe for the task in hand.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 15 years, whilst 12 of the 15 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.

Course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Mittens (good)

1/2—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

 

3.55: I can report overnight win and place money for RED GALILEO which does not come as a great surprise with the Saeed Bin Suroor stable having hit top form recently, with nine of their last 21 runners having been saddled to winning effect.  Others for the melting pot include GALAPIAT and TAWDEEA, given that any value in Appeared has long since disappeared, if you’ll pardon the play on words.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market finished last of six runners (beaten 23 lengths), with favourite backers hoping for a distinctly better run for their money on this occasion.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Appeared (good to firm)

1/3—King Bolete (goot to fim)

1/4—Sennockian Star (good)

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4.25:  Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 three years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented.  Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 twelve months ago.  Unbelievably (I don’t believe it!) just one relevant horse has been declared this time around, with SOIE D’LEAU being the first name on the team sheet.  Ryan Moore boasts a 33% strike rate for Mark Johnston this season which can only aid and abet the cause of YALTA.  The recent Newmarket winner SHAMSHON finished fourth last year off a six pound higher mark, whilst COOLFITCH cannot be left out of the equations with conditions to suit.

Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed six years ago.  The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last four winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1.  14 of the last 18 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Shamson (soft)

1/13—Jack Dexter (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Mark Johnston (3/30 – loss of 8 points)

4—David Elsworth (1/8 – Profit of 4 points)

4—William Haggas (4/29 – loss of 12 points)

4—Roger Varian (2/26 – loss of 16 points)

3—John Gosden (2/38 – loss of 21 points)

3—Richard Hannon (4/40 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (4/28 – Profit of 15 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/13)

2—Robert Cowell (0/7)

2—Tim Easterby (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/5)

2—William Knight (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/19 – Profit of 7 points)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Derek Shaw (No Previous runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £306.20 – 7 Favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £39.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Thirsk: £24.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

York: £65.60 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplced

Uttoxeter: £426.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday July 15

NEWMARKET - JULY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £29.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 11 (Sizzling) & 7 (Poetic Charm)

Leg 2 (2.15): 7 (Cheval Blanche), 8 (Tropical Rock) & 3 (Gymnaste)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (City Of Joy), 1 (Masham Star) & 7 (Maths Prize)

Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Bossy Guest), 2 (Buckstay), 3 (Tashweeq), 14 (Sir Dancealot) & 15 (Withernsea)

Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (Gustav Klimt) & 3 (Etefaaq)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Caravaggio) & 7 (The Tin Man)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.45: Aidan O’Brien’s record of 2/4 at the meeting this week is backed up by a 10/1 runner up which points the way to SIZZLING in the opening event, a contest Aidan won two years ago.  Only Charlie Appleby has saddled more winners on the July course this week (3/12 – see all the stats below) whereby his Dubawi filly POETIC CHARM is taken as the principle danger, especially as the filly holds an entry in an Irish Group 1 race later in the year.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

2.15: 18 of the last 20 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (9/10 qualify) from my viewpoint are CHEVAL BLANCHE, TROPICAL ROCK and GYMNASTE.  That said, I’m sure there will be worse outsiders on the card than MARIE OF LYON who looks overpriced at around 18/1 at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 20 years, whilst 14/26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

2.50: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried 9-1 or more and it's worth noting that just 16 'qualifiers' have run in total via the last four contests to produce decent priced winners at 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2.  There are only five horses to choose from this time around, with the pin coming down on the side of CITY OF JOY, MASHAM STAR and EXECUTIVE FORCE via the relevant quintet.  Of the horses below the ‘superior weight barrier’, MATHS PRIZE appears to be the value for money option.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last eighteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.25: The last nine winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 21 of the last 23 horses to have secured Placepot positions.  Although this scenario ‘only‘ eliminates nine (possibly eleven via claims) of the 20 declarations, all assistance is required in trying to track down the winner of the Bunbury Cup, as ever was the case.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, whilst five-year-olds have 'dominated' of late, snaring four of the last six contests. My quartet against the field take into account the facts and stats are BOSSY GUEST, BUCKSTAY (joint favourite for race last year), TASHWEEQ and WITHERNSEA in the Placepot mix.  That said, I will probably have an each way saver (single) on VON BLUCHER at 33/1 (thereabouts), albeit the ex-John Gosden raider carries sixteen ounces less than what the weight trend recommends.  There is no way that the four-year-old would have been priced up at those odds if John still trained the course winner and I would not be surprised if P J McDonald’s mount figured prominently.  SIR DANCEALOT could outrun his price to reward each way investors too.

Favourite factor: 10 of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on nine occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame,

Record of course winners in the ‘Bunbury Cup:

1/4—Buckstay (good to firm)

1/1—Tashweeq (good to soft)

1/5—Bossy Guest (good to firm)

1/1—Boomshackerlacker (soft)

1/2—Von Blucher (good to firm)

1/1—Robero (good)

 

4.00:  'Team Hannon' have saddled five of the last sixteen winners of this race which is named after the 1983 July Stakes winner Superlative.  Richard saddles ETEFAAQ this time around, albeit Aidan’s O’Brien’s Curragh winner GUSTAV KLIMT will probably take the beating.  You can certainly ignore the 7/4 quote in the trade press about the favourite who might get close to even money by the time that flag fall arrives.  Aidan’s juveniles have run well at the meeting thss far and his Galielo colt is expected to go one better than his beaten favourite last year who ran behind a 7/1 winner trainer by Charlie Appleby who saddles AQABAH this time around.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have claimed win and place positions during the study period, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the Superlative Stakes:

1/1—Etefaaq (good to soft)

 

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4.35: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn, as was the case for a good while until last year.  I readily admit that the last couple of renewals have now looked like the real deal and in CARRAVAGIO we have a storm trooper who has that rare quality of speed and fortitude/resilience, call it what you like.  Unbeaten thus far following six assignments, it might need an off day to beat him, rather than any of his rivals, albeit they are a decent group of thoroughbreds and no mistake.  LIMATO is good on his day (won this race last year) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereas I am sick and tired of THE TIN MAN proving me wrong on so many occasions!

Favourite factor: Ten of the last 15 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 15 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Limato (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday followed by their stats at the July meeting this week:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/9)

5—Mark Johnston (1/8 – winner at 8/1)

4—Charlie Appleby (3/12 – winners at 9/2, 7/2 & 11.10*)

4—John Gosden (1/11 – winner at 9/4*)

4—Richard Hannon (1/12 – winner at 13/2)

4—Aidan O’Brien (2/5 – winners at 6/4* & 11/8*)

3—Michael Bell (0/3)

3—Mick Channon (0/1)

3—William Haggas (0/2)

2—Karl Burke (No previous runners this week)

2—Ed Dunlop (1/2 – winner at 7/1)

2—Mick Easterby (No previous runners this week)

2—Charlie Hills (0/6)

2—Gary Moore (No previous runners this week)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/5)

2—George Peckham (No previous runners this week)

2—Kevin Ryan (0/2)

Trainers with 1 runner on Saturday who have saddled a winner this week:

1/1—Hughie Morrison (11/4)

1/2—Jeremy Noseda (6/1)

1/5—Roger Varian (13/2)

+ 31 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on Saturday’s card

85 declared runners

For the record, three other trainers have saddled one winner each (all from three opportunities) but are not represented at Newmarket today, namely Andrew Balding (7/1), Brian Meehan (7/2) & Stuart Williams (7/1) = total of 15 winners at Newmarket this week going into today’s final day

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £41.70 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Chester: £22.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Hamilton: £16.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Salisbury: £122.60 – 6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

York: £448.90 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 14

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £4,871.50 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Fawaareq), 8 (Parfait), 7 (Swift Approval) & 17 (Ripoli)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Clemmie) & 8 (Out Of The Flames)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Titi Makfi), 7 (Monticello) & 9 (Oasis Charm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Wuheida) & 5 (Roly Poly)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Gold Town), 2 (Starlight Mystery), 11 (Merchant Marine) & 9 (Arabian Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Being There) & 10 (Rastrelli)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Course winners are few and far between in the other races at Newmarket today but three of the six relevant runners here are worth a second glance.  PARFAIT is the most obvious contender I guess for John Gosden, though all eight of his runners were beaten at the venue yesterday on a day in which the trainer has done well in recent years.  PARFAIT cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, though I am wondering if any value for money long since disappeared relating to William Buick’s mount.  FAWEEREQ boasts a 2/2 ratio and having won under opposite conditions whereby connections have no worries on account of the ground.  SWIFT APPROVAL beat just nine rivals in the contest last year when trained by Kevin Ryan, though he has yet to prove himself for the Stuart Williams team.  That said, Stuart saddled a winner here yesterday and the trainer has never been frightened of running horses that are seemingly up against superior rivals.  Running off the same mark as last year, SWIFT APPROVAL is arguably worth a small saver at around the 20/1 mark.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RIPOLI I’ll wager, even though Sylvester Kirk’s four time A/W winner has yet to open his account on turf.  The strength of his three Kempton wins make the current 25/1 mark look attractive from an each way perspective.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites to date won its respective contest at 5/1 before last year’s 11/4 market leader finished out with the washing.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Makzeem (good to soft)

2/2—Fawaareq (good to firm & soft)

1/4—Gunmetal (good to soft)

1/1—Swift Approval (good to firm)

1/1—Parfait (good)

2/5—Majestic Moon (2 x good to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that ‘Team Hannon‘ is the only training establishment to have saddled three winners of this event during the last thirteen years and saddling the Queen Mary bronze medallist OUT OF THE FLAMES gives Richard a sporting chance of landing another victory on behalf of the stable.  Time could prove that finishing three lengths adrift of Heartache at Royal Ascot was a fine effort.  William Buick was quoted as saying that Heartache was a ‘class apart’ from the other juvenile winners at Ascot this year and OUT OF THE FLAMES could add weight to William’s argument.  CLEMMIE disappointed at Ascot a few weeks back but came bouncing back to form via a Group 3 victory and this one grade hike might not be beyond Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo filly.  Roly Poly took a similar route to the circle reserved for the winner in last year’s race for the yard and lightning could strike twice this afternoon to leave Irish eyes smiling.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the last seventeen favourites have won whilst 15/22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has won the last four renewals and in TITI MAKFI and MONTCELLO, Mark has definite claims of saddling his sixth winner of the race within the last 11 years.  The pair are listed in order of preference, though there may not be a great deal of daylight between the stable companions at the jamstick.  If Mark is to be denied another success, OASIS CHARM could prove to be the joker in the pack with Charlie Appleby’s team in great form just now.  That said, when are Charlie’s runners anything but prominent on the racecourse?  The weight concession is against Leshlaa who is overlooked accordingly, though I still expect to Godolphin raider to run well.

Favourite factor: 10 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last 10 gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won 10 of the last 20 renewals of this Group 1 event and the junior course winners look to have a firm grip on the contest this time around.  ROLY POLY is as tough as teak and not many fillies would want to get into street battle with Aidan O’Brien’s raider who won the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on the corresponding card twelve months ago.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi filly WUHEIDA could yet be anything, given that she is a winner of her two races to date, her second success coming in the Group 1 ‘Marcel Boussac’ last back end.  If she can turn Roly Poly over here on her seasonal debut, the sky could literally be the limit for William Buick’s mount.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Falmouth Stakes:

1/1—Roly Poly (good to firm)

1/1—Wuheida (good to firm)

 

4.10: Six of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones in this two-year-old handicap contest, albeit I am little hesitant in dismissing the chances of GOLD TOWN and SRTARLIGHT MYSTERY from the 'inferior' sector of the weights, especially as more recent renewals have gone the way of horses higher up the handicap.  Indeed, three of the last four winners have carried 9-5 or more which supports my argument in nominating the top pair in my Placepot mix.  Ralph Beckett saddled last year’s winner and his Epaulette colt MERCHANT MARINE in not without place claims, arguably alongside ARABIAN JAZZ.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the 14 market leaders have reached the frame (six winners) in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.  Although market leaders have won six of the twelve renewals to date, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 16/1-12/1-8/1-8/1-11/2.

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4.45:  Six of the last 13 renewals have fallen the way of market leaders in a race which has produced plenty of decent winners in the past.  From a Placepot perspective, Charlie Appleby looks to have this contested all wrapped with a pretty bow given that BEING THERE will surely take a great deal of kicking out of the frame following a highly promising debut.  Add his expensive breeze-up newcomer RASTRELLI into the equation and we should be able to spend the rest of the afternoon in the bar.  Perhaps later in the day you could look up the film Being There and finish off Friday by watching the truly superb performance of Peter Sellers in a captivating movie (imo).

Favourite factor:  Eight clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  13/24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just eight Placepot positions via 116 representatives during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday + ‘scoresheet’ from Day 1 at Newmarket July meeting!

7 runners—Charlie Appleby (2/6 on the 1st day at 7/2 & 9/2 = 23/1 double)

6—Richard Hannon (0/6)

4—Richard Fahey (0/5)

4—Charlie Hills (0/2)

4—Mark Johnston (1/4 - winner at 8/1)

3—John Gosden (0/8)

3—John Quinn (No runners yesterday)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

3—Stuart Williams (winner at 7/1)

2—Ralph Beckett (No runners yesterday)

2—Michael Bell (0/1)

2—Simon Crisford (No runners yesterday)

2—Luca Cumani (No runners yesterday)

2—Robert Cowell (0/1)

2—Jim Goldie (No runners yesterday)

2—William Haggas (No runners yesterday)

2—Stan Moore (No runners yesterday)

2—Jeremy Noseda (No runners yesterday)

2—Aidan O’Brien (0/2)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—Ian Williams (No winners yesterday)

1 runner today—Andrew Balding (1/2 yesterday - winner at 7/1)

1 runner today—Brian Meehan (1/2 yesterday – winner at 7/2

+ 25 different other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £152.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chepstow: £4,779.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Musselburgh: £276.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £573.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday July 1

NEWCASTLE – JULY 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend - was Turf until 2015 - now A/W:

2016: £125.50 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 9 (Mazzini), 1 (Al Qahwa) & 2 (Amazour)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Ornate), 11 (Koropick) & 9 (Perfect Pastures)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (London Prize) & 7 (I Am Not Here)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Natural Scenery), 6 (Seamour), 14 (Lord George) & 18 (Champagne Champ)

Leg 5 (4.05): 11 (Carthage) & 8 (Go George Go)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Rockwood), 6 (Auspicion) & 7 (Archipeligo)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 29/60, which equates to over 48%.  If you put that record into terms of odds, it would suggest that these runners are 21/20 to win their respective events!  Upwards and onward by informing that only five four-year-olds contested last year’s first running of this event but it was enough to secure a 117/1 Exacta forecast between two vintage representatives.  Just three relevant horses have been declared this time around, with MAZZINI slightly preferred to AL QAHWA and THE COMMENNDATORE this time around.  AMAZOUR returns to defend his crown and his 2/2 record over course and distance make the five-year-old a definite threat.  Ismail Mohammed winners tend to be well backed so watch out for any market support in the lead up to the contest.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position last year when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/2—Amazour

1/1—Unabated

1/1—Robero

1/1—Mazzini

2/3—Poet’s Society

 

2.25: With nine of the last twelve gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals.  Quite why ORNATE is the only vintage representative baffles yours truly on this occasion and with four of Robert Cowell’s last twelve runners having won, Ornate’s 10/1 quote this morning makes plenty of win and place appeal.  Hugo Palmer was boasting 3/3 recent stats at one point yesterday before his next four runners capitulated, though with his inmates showing improved form, Hugo’s KOROPICK (the only three-year-old in the field) is also kept on the right side from a Placepot perspective.  The world and his dog seem to be aware that Michael Easterby tends to do most of his winning on the flat in the early months of the season and with 20 gold medallists having been recorded in April/May/June this year, Michael’s PERFECT PASTURES completes my trio again the other eight contenders.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.00: Punters latched onto last year’s winner who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and LONDON PRIZE will be equally popular to go close here, especially as the Ian Williams raider ran the track well to finish second to Natural Scenery (my tip for the big race) back in February and it might only take a repeat of that effort to give the bookmakers a real fright leading up to the main event.  Connections are expected to have most to fear from I AM NOT HERE whose trainer Brian Ellison secured a 23/1 double yesterday via both codes of our favourite sport.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 market duly obliged.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—I Am Not Here

 

3.30: 14 of the last 19 winners of the ‘Pitman’s Derby’ have carried weights of 8-12 or less and I could give chances to both LORD GEORGE and Rod Millman’s 25/1 chance CHAMPAGE CHAMP form that sector of the handicap.  That said, I am sweet on the chance of NATURAL SCENERY with four-year-olds having secured 11/27 contests in recent times.  Josephine Gordon is riding like a ‘woman possessed’ right now, though she will not be happy to read that gender is mentioned as she is now well and truly ‘one of the lads’.  I’ll wager that Ben Curtis will be told to be a little more patient than when booting SEAMOUR for home with the race seemingly won a furlong from home twelve months ago.  His chance from a Placepot perspective is there for all to see again, whilst Natural Beauty’ stable companion GOOD RUN is expected to outrun his 20/1 quote.  For all that I quoted the long term weight stats to open the analysis for this event, it’s worth noting that four of the last five winners have carried 9-3 or more to victory, stats which suggest that NATURAL SCENERY and SEAMOUR could go clear of the field on the run to the line.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 12 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 19 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 12 of the 23 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of the course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

2/2—Natural Scenery

2/2—Fly Me To The Stars

1/3—Good Run

1/3—Gavlar

 

4.05: GO GEORGE GO was a fine example of the talent that Alan Swinbank had in training horses and ‘Plate day’ will not quite be the same with Alan and Dandy Nicholls in attendance this year.  Sally Haynes has picked up the thread to fine effect however and tears could be in the offing if this four time course and distance winner can go in again today in front of the massive crowd.  Ben Curtis was just touched off in this this race too following the ‘Plate’ last year but I have a mind that the pilot could go close aboard CATHAGE here, albeit the six-year-old is seemingly only the second string (of three in total) that Brian Ellison has declared.   Fellow inmate SUITOR has obvious claims, but CARTHAGE represents value for money from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite found one too good from a win perspective, though Placepot players were happy with the outcome.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Wor Lass

1/1—Suitor

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1/5—Lac Leman

1/3—Airton

4/5—Go George Go

1/1—Falcon’s Fire

 

4.45: Karen McLintock remains one of the most underrated of trainers in my book and Karen has a good chance of putting the record straight here having declared ROCKWOOD.  Fellow course and distance winners AUSPICION and ARCHIPELIGO might offer most resistance as the field aim for the jamstick.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader sent the majority of punters back into the city centre in a buoyant form, even though it was via a southern trained (Luca Cumani) winner!

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

4/13—Testa Rossa

1/4—Auspicion

1/4--Archipeligo

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newcastle card on Saturday:

11—runners—Brian Ellison

8—Richard Fahey

6—Mick Easterby

4—Keith Dalgleish

4—James Fanshaw

3—Tim Easterby

3—Mark Johnston

2—Marco Botti

2—Mick Channon

2—Jim Goldie

2—Gay Kelleway

2—William Knight

2—David O’Meara

2—Paul Midgley

2—David Simcock

2—Saeed Bin Suroor

2—James Tate

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

86 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £122.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Doncaster: £263.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield (turf): £127.10 - Last year’s meeting was contested on the A/W track

Newmarket: £214.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £310.90 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

York: This is a new meeting

 

 

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2017

Friday's Result :

6.00 Newcastle : Inaam @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 Raced keenly, held up towards rear, driven to chase leaders over 2f out, soon ridden and one pace, well held when lost place inside final furlong

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.05 York...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Defoe @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

Three top 2 finishes from four starts (1201) for this 3 yr old so far and was a winner in this grade over 1m2f on soft ground last time out, 6 weeks ago. The recent rain in the North shouldn't affect him at all, as he's 2/2 on soft ground.

His trainer, Roger Varian, has an excellent record in Flat handicaps at the sharper end of the market and money put down on his runners seems well placed, as since the start of the 2013 campaign, those sent off at odds of 11/8 to 13/2 are 105/425 (24.7% SR) for 59.2pts (+13.9% ROI) profit. This suits the way I go about my betting perfectly as the vast majority of my bets (public and otherwise!) are within those parameters.

Of these 425 'cappers...

  • 3 yr olds are 68/273 (24.9%) for 41.7pts (+15.3%)
  • over trips of 8.5 to 12.5 furlongs : 57/196 (29.1%) for 78.3pts (+39.9%)
  • running 21-75 days after their last outing : 53/187 (28.3%) for 64.7pts (+34.6%)
  • on ground deemed softer than Good : 24/93 (25.8%) for 16pts (+17.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 18/84 (21.4%) for 14.6pts (+17.4%)
  • in the month of July : 23/77 (29.9%) for 32.2pts (+41.8%)
  • and here at York : 4/17 (23.5%) for 5.34pts (+31.4%)

Harry Bentley will be in the saddle today and he seems to have a knack of looking after well backed horses, as his record on favourites since the start of 2015 stands at 61/126 (48.4% SR) for profits of 50.8pts (+40.4% ROI) and these really are excellent figures, as we all know that blindly backing favourites is generally a one-way route to the poorhouse!

That thought aside for one moment, though, because of those 126 Bentley-ridden favs...

  • handicappers are 38/82 (46.3%) for 34.1pts (+41.7%)
  • LTO winners are 16/32 (50%) for 8.08pts (+25.3%)
  • those trained by Roger Varian : 14/28 (50%) for 14pts (+50%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 10/14 (71.4%) for 20pts (+142.8%)

...providing us with...a 1pt win bet on Defoe9/4 BOG which was generally available at 9.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 York...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!