The Bookie Demolisher â€“ Final review
The author has tested this system for over 2 years with no claims whatsoever that he/she has actually backed the selections that the system produces. The system has clearly been developed by back fitting results to SP over the reviewed period.
To quote the author directly â€œIf you had backed every selection that the system has produced since June 1st 2007, you would have made the following profits:â€
â€œJune 1st 2007 to Dec 31st 2007 â€“ 436.64 points profit = Â£43,664.00 at Â£100 stakesâ€
â€œ2008 â€“ 521.33 points profit = Â£52,133.00 at Â£100 stakesâ€
â€œ2009 to July â€“ 348.91 points profit = Â£34,890.90 at Â£100 stakesâ€
Whilst not all selections will win or place it is claimed â€œthat the results have already been sustained for 26 months without a losing runâ€.
Mode of Operation
Whilst the system itself is very simple to operate in terms of identifying potential qualifiers, this simplicity is somewhat undone by the confused instructions on when you bet. To quote the author directly
â€œWhat has been produced is a system that will allow you to place your bets at any point in the day. It has no trading or price watching involved, so if you are out during the day you can use the system just as effectively as those that are fortunate enough to be able to watch the racing each afternoon!
The rules are simple, you follow a strict set of guidelines, and if the correct conditions are met then you have a bet. If they are not met, then you leave the race and wait for the next qualifier.â€
However, key aspects of correctly identifying and backing qualifiers are clearly defined in the rules for the system e.g.
1). Ignore if less than or greater than specific odds, or
2). Double stakes if favourite, or
3). If within a specified odds range, back E/W
Clearly, if you put on bets the night before or at any point just before the â€œOffâ€ then some of the specific rules could not be applied or could be incorrectly applied. This is contrary to what the author states. A prime example of this confusion occurs as follows:
31/08/2009 Goodwood â€“ a potential qualifier was Laa Rayb. This particular horse was quoted at 20/1 the night before in the Sporting Life Online race card and thus a qualifier. However, on the day of racing it was freely available at 40/1 and never dropped below its final SP of 25/1. The horse won but during our review this was marked as a non-qualifier.
System Results â€“ 27th July to 21st August 2009
Potential Qualifiers = 168
Actual Qualifiers = 144
Winners = 25
Second = 15
Third = 20
Unplaced = 84
Non-qualifiers = 24 (including a 5/2 and 25/1 winner, 7 non-runners and 1 withdrawn).
Strike Rate = 17.36%
Total Stakes = Â£1630.00
Total Return = Â£1536.65
Loss to SP = - 9.335 points (- Â£93.35)
With a name like the â€œBookie Demolisherâ€ the system has an awful lot to live up to. Unfortunately, during the period of our review it failed to live up to its name. Indeed, in the 2 betting days since our review ended, the system has lost another 3+ points.
The system is based on an analysis of results for the past 2+ years. My own analysis of the same trainer/course combinations over a longer time period has identified some fundamental weaknesses in the original analysis for the â€œBookie Demolisherâ€.
1). Some of the identified trainers had what can only be described as â€˜purple patchesâ€™ at certain courses during 2007 and 2008. The results prior to 2007 and during 2009 paint a totally different picture of losses to level stakes.
2). Other readily identified trends (positive and negative) were also noted during my analysis.
The basic tenet of the system does have merit though whether it can achieve the published successes of the past in the future is debatable. If the 25/1 non-qualifier (see above) had been included then the review would be showing a profit. Additionally, a number of good priced horses were pipped on the line during the review period however; racing is full of â€œifsâ€ and â€œbutsâ€.
For those of you who have already purchased the system I would suggest sticking with it though I would personally â€˜paper tradeâ€™ it for a bit longer before committing cash to the bookie. Finally, I have provided Matt with a spreadsheet of all potential qualifiers during the review period.