The Bookie Demolisher – re-visited

Initial Review – 27th July to 21st August 2009

With a name like the “Bookie Demolisher” the system had an awful lot to live up to. Unfortunately, during the period of our review it failed to live up to its name. We experienced  a loss of £93.35 using £10 level stakes at SP.

The basic tenet of the system does have merit though whether it can achieve the published successes of the past in the future is debatable. A number of good priced horses were pipped on the line during the review period however; racing is full of “ifs” and “buts”.

For those of you who have already purchased the system I would suggest sticking with it though I would personally ‘paper trade’ it for a bit longer before committing cash to the bookie.

Second Review – 1st August to 31st October 2009

This second review period will probably be the most extensive you will encounter on the Internet. So did it perform? Unfortunately a "Bookie Demolisher" it was not as we accrued cumulative losses of £153.37 using £10 level stakes at SP.  The author of the system had stated "whilst not all selections will win or place the results have already been sustained for 26 months without a losing run".

During our extended review period we had two losing months out of three with only October realising a profit.  Details of the results follow:

System Results – August 2009

Total potential qualifiers = 173

Winners = 27 (excluding one non-qualifier).

Second = 21

Third = 20

Unplaced = 77

Non-qualifiers = 28 (including a 10/3 winner, 12 non-runners and 1 withdrawn).

Strike Rate = 18.62%

Level stakes loss to SP = £196.93

System Results – September 2009

Total potential qualifiers = 122

Winners = 17 (excluding one non-qualifier).

Second = 15

Third = 14

Unplaced = 53

Non-qualifiers = 23 (including a 28/1 winner and 9 non-runners).

Strike Rate = 17.17%

Level stakes loss to SP = £83.87

System Results – October 2009

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Total potential qualifiers = 163

Winners = 29 (excluding one non-qualifier).

Second = 11 (excluding one non-qualifier).

Third = 13 (excluding one non-qualifier).

Unplaced = 78

Non-qualifiers = 32 (including 5 non-runners).

Strike Rate = 22.14%

Level stakes profit to SP = £127.43

Summary

My view on this system after this extended review period  remains the same in that the results do not support the claims that this is a "Bookie Demolisher". The system is based on an analysis of results for the past 2+ years. My own analysis of the same trainer/course combinations over a longer time period has identified some fundamental weaknesses in the original analysis for the “Bookie Demolisher”.

1). Some of the identified trainers had what can only be described as ‘purple patches’ at certain courses during 2007 and 2008. The results prior to 2007 and during 2009 paint a totally different picture of losses to level stakes.

2). Other readily identified trends (positive and negative) were also noted during my analysis.

The basic tenet of the system does have merit though whether in its current format it can achieve the published successes of the past in the future is, as we have shown, unlikely. If the 28/1 non-qualifier (see above) had been included then the review would be showing a profit.  However, once you start on the route of 'bending' the system rules then you would also have to bet on all of the other non-qualifiers with the exception of the non-runners, if you had done this the outcome would be a bigger accumulated loss than that already reported.

One trainer in particular kept the losses down on this system and certainly helped the system into profit during October. The form of the Godophin horses as trained by Saeed Suroor was excellent when they were qualifiers (see below):

August 2009

Strike Rate = 40% (2 winners from 5 actual runners)

September 2009

Strike Rate = 100% (3 winners from 3 actual runners)

October 2009

Strike Rate = 75% (12 winners from 16 actual runners)

Stop Press

Saeed Suroor had one qualifier on the 1st November and this won at 9/4.

Happy punting

John

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