Roge is in blinding form right now...

The Newmarket Backend Trainers with a 41.98% ROI

Roge is in blinding form right now...

Roge is in blinding form right now...

The Cambridgeshire meeting, running from today through until Saturday, forms part of a clutch of meetings at Newmarket between now and the end of the season. It may pay to note the quintet of trainers in this post, who have all historically punched well above their weight from September onwards at flat racing's HQ.

Charlie Appleby

Having only taken over from the disgraced Mahmood al Zarooni, himself a late season Newmarket demon, at the start of last season, Appleby has continued to pump out the winners in similar vein.

Indeed, in his first season last year, he ran twenty horses, winning with seven of them, for a return of 21.98 units at SP (26.4 BSP). It should be noted that the yard is in excellent fettle right now, and I have a fair fancy for one of theirs this afternoon (Billingsgate).

It might be pertinent to note that all seven of Appleby's winners in the sample were 2yo's, from fourteen of that age group to face the starter.

Appleby's Newmarket entries this week:

Today
2.00 Chorus Of Lies
4.50 Billingsgate

Friday
1.40 Zibelena
3.15 Outstrip
3.45 Penglai Pavilion

Saturday
2.00 Pulcinella
4.25 Serene Beauty

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Jim Bolger

An Irish raider, Bolger loves to stake a claim for some of the big late season juvenile events, a tactic he's deployed to great effect for a generation. In the period in question - 2010+ - his record is three from eleven with a further two placed, for an SP profit of 14.8 points (BSP +18.83).

Bolger's score card was bolstered by 20/1 Parish Hall, but he also added Dawn Approach and Trading Leather to his win tally. Expect any of his winners here to be well above average. Note that Bolger also had placed horses at 14/1 and 33/1, and a third of six (so unplaced, just) also at 33/1. They don't come over for the break, it would appear.

Bolger's Newmarket entries this week:

Friday
2.40 Lucida

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Roger Charlton

The boss of Beckhampton has a tremendous record at Newmarket in late season over the past few years, with six winners and three placed from 29 runners. Those winners accrued 17.75 units of starting price profit (24.43 BSP), and hit at a rate of better than one in five.

Charlton has the likeable Captain Cat entered tomorrow, amongst others.

Charlton's Newmarket entries this week:

Tomorrow
3.15 Captain Cat
5.00 Border Legend

Saturday
5.35 High Church

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John Gosden

No review of Newmarket trainers would be complete without an entry for Johnny G. He is a master of his craft, and he regularly demonstrates that at his local course. If there is a problem with following the yard blindly it is one of volume: Gosden runs a lot of horses at Newmarket late season.

In fact, since 2010, he's run 122 horses from September to the end of the season, hauling in 18 winners and a profit of 37.12 units at starting price (62.4 BSP). As that SP/BSP disparity implies, Gosden has scored with big priced horses. In fact, it might be surprising to discover that he's had four 20/1 winners in the sample, including Taghrooda last year.

And, for whatever reason - most likely coincidence - Gosden has scored with just two of his 54 horses priced between 9/2 and 12/1 in that time. With just three from 37 three-year-olds notching, they might be a group to cast an accusing eye upon.

Gosden's Newmarket entries this week:

Today
2.00 Tempus Temporis
2.00 Secateur
4.15 Flying Officer

Friday
1.40 Belle d'Or
2.10 Criteria
3.15 Wannabe Yours
3.45 Nabucco
4.25 Nota Cambiata
5.00 Gm Hopkins

Saturday
3.10 Tendu
3.50 Maverick Wave
3.50 Cornrow
4.25 Jazzi Top
4.25 Entertainment

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Roger Varian

Roger Varian is the man of the late season so far, claiming the Group 1 St Leger and then nabbing the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes the next day. He's in flying form generally just now, and is included more on that basis than his overall profit of 6.33 (13.15 BSP) from 48 runners and eight winners.

It might be worth noting that Varian tends to only strike when expected at Newmarket at this time of year, as all of his winners have been priced 12/1 or shorter, eliminating eleven of the initial 48 superset.

Varian's Newmarket entries this week:

Today
2.00 Tawaasheeh

Friday
2.10 Familliarity
2.40 Tigrilla
3.45 Ayrad
5.00 Miguel Grau

Saturday
4.25 Skip And Jump
4.25 Bella Lulu

**

Collectively, that quintet of hot handlers has run 231 horses at Newmarket from September until the end of the season since 2010. They've bagged 42 pots between them (18.18% of two-in-eleven), and have recorded profit at starting price of 96.98 points, which ramps up to 144.2 points at Betfair Starting Price.

There's little doubt that this Fabulous Five will have winners this week, and continue to do so at HQ in the coming weeks. I wouldn't go so far as to suggest blindly backing their runners, but give all of them at least a second thought when poring through the Newmarket cards.

Good luck!

Matt

p.s. thanks a lot for all the interest in the writer/developer opportuntities. I'm not accepting any more applicants at this time.

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1 reply
  1. chris says:

    It may be relevant to remember that Michael Jarvis never used to win with debutant 2yr olds at Newmarket, in relation to Tawaasheeh; has that trend continued under Roger V.?

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