The ‘Penalty Kick?’ Betting System

Penalty Kick System

Penalty Kick System

In today's guest post, Dave Renham of punterprofits.com looks at the effect on performance of horses saddled with a penalty. In it, he looks at various angles before offering a couple of mini-systems which exemplify how to optimally play horses carrying a penalty.

Here's Dave:

Penalty Carriers

This week I am going to look at penalty carriers on the flat racing in the UK. The data has been taken from 2009 to June 17th 2012. All profits and losses quoted in the article are to SP. Backing profits can therefore be improved in real life through use of best odds price taking or using betting exchanges such as Betfair.

So why look at penalty carriers? Well, although they are forced to the carry extra weight of the penalty, trainers often try to take advantage of the horse being in form before being reassessed by the handicapper. Let us see therefore the performance of all penalty carriers over the period of study:

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

2570

588

22.9

-£112.09

-4.4

This is a fairly solid set of figures with losses equating to only 4.4 pence in the £, and a good number of selections to boot. Let us breakdown this data starting by looking at the position in the market:

Market position

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

Favourite

1072

376

35.1

-£42.68

-4.0

2nd Favourite

503

104

20.7

-£19.90

-4.0

3rd Favourite

303

51

16.8

+£17.49

+5.8

4th Favourite

221

24

10.9

-£21.50

-9.7

5+ in betting

471

33

7.0

-£45.50

-9.7

A position in the top three in the betting has been preferable both in terms of strike rate and in terms of returns. Although third favourites have made a small profit I would not advocate backing them blind as I would not expect that profit to be replicated over a similar future time frame.

I looked at the age of runners next:

Age

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

2

133

31

23.3

-£16.38

-12.3

3

743

223

30.0

+£53.70

+7.2

4

603

127

21.1

-£28.26

-4.7

5

436

88

20.2

-£39.92

-9.2

6

285

59

20.7

-£13.07

-4.6

7

199

34

17.1

-£16.41

-8.3

8

96

16

16.7

-£14.63

-15.2

9+

75

10

13.3

-£37.13

-49.5

The record of 3yos looks impressive on the surface.  Conversely, results for horses aged 9 and older are poor and they look worth avoiding. The 3yo performance I felt merited further investigation and a pleasing stat to note is that they have made a profit in every year – 2009, 2010, 2011 and the first half of 2012.

That suggests consistency which is a plus when looking at potential punting angles. Another positive angle worth noting is the performance of 3yo penalty carriers in open handicaps (3yo+ races). They have produced 80 winners from 276 runners (SR 29%) for a profit of £64.88 (ROI +23.5%). The reason why the returns in these contests have been far better than the overall figure is probably down to punter prejudice.

Most punters would expect a 3yo penalty carrier to be less successful when racing older horses as compared to when racing against his/her own age group. Hence in open (3yo+) I suspect these penalty carriers tend to start at slightly bigger prices than they should due to this pre-conception.

Onto class of race next: 

Class

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

1

5

0

0.0

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-£5.00

-100.0

2

231

20

8.7

-£49.75

-21.5

3

113

25

22.1

+£40.57

+35.9

4

509

116

22.8

+£7.09

+1.4

5

838

202

24.1

-£109.19

-13.0

6

825

208

25.2

-£4.34

-0.5

7

49

17

34.7

+£8.53

+17.4

There does seem to be a pattern here with the higher class races (2 and above) performing below expectations, while the lowest class races (6 and 7) performing over expectations and actually making a nominal profit.

Next I wanted to look at claiming jockeys. Trainers sometimes try and ‘offset’ the penalty by putting a claiming jockey on board. Is this a good ploy? Well let’s look at the stats: 

Jockey claim

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

No claim

1722

416

24.2

-£36.48

-2.1

Claim 3lb+

848

172

20.3

-£75.60

-8.9

The figures suggest there is no advantage to be had by placing a claiming jockey on board. In fact, they have performed worse in terms of both strike rate and returns. Indeed, it is worth noting that 7lb claimers have managed a strike rate of only 17% with losses of 27% (27 pence in the £).

Finally let me look at trainers to see whether there are any trainers who are adept at placing horses carrying penalties. Here is a list of those trainers that have secured 7 or more winners.

Trainers

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

Roger Charlton

13

7

53.9

+£0.91

+7.0

Sir Mark Prescott

58

31

53.5

+£4.10

+7.1

Kevin Ryan

38

19

50.0

+£24.51

+64.5

Ian Williams

17

8

47.1

+£9.56

+56.3

Alan Swinbank

16

7

43.8

+£4.07

+25.4

Michael Wigham

16

7

43.8

+£11.67

+73.0

George Baker

21

9

42.9

+£3.24

+15.4

Stuart Williams

24

10

41.7

+£11.90

+49.6

Richard Hannon

24

8

33.3

+£17.00

+70.8

Tim Easterby

24

8

33.3

+£4.21

+17.5

Bryan Smart

29

9

31.0

-£3.35

-11.6

Michael Easterby

23

7

30.4

-£1.38

-6.0

Paul Midgley

31

9

29.0

+£8.97

+29.0

Milton Bradley

29

7

24.1

+£12.88

+44.4

Mark Johnston

114

25

21.9

+£4.25

+3.7

Richard Fahey

42

8

19.1

-£11.68

-27.8

Ruth Carr

43

8

18.6

-£3.00

-7.0

David Evans

61

7

11.5

-£24.25

-39.8

Sir Mark Prescott is renowned for running horses quickly after a win, but despite an excellent strike rate, profits are small. Perhaps the trainer to take out of this is Kevin Ryan – a 50% strike rate is excellent as are returns of 64p in the £.

To conclude you could do a lot worse than backing a good proportion of penalty carriers. I would pay most attention to 3yos (especially in 3yo+ handicaps), and also I would look closely at class 6-7 handicaps. Any penalty carrier trained by one of the trainers with a positive return, most notably Kevin Ryan, are also worth close scrutiny. In terms of negatives, I would avoid horses aged 9 and older, class 2 or higher handicaps and any horse ridden by a 7lb claimer.

Dave Renham

Dave Renham is a research writer for the Racing & Football Outlook newspaper.

Register for free at his  www.PunterProfits.com website to access additional horse racing  research articles from Dave. There is also a premium area where users can get hold of Dave's National Hunt portfolio, and plenty more besides.

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11 replies
  1. Liam says:

    Very interesting indeed I will have a go at it too, I see Gavin has a nice little filly system too.

    I think I will give both a try.

    What a wash out at Newcastle today.

  2. Ray says:

    Hope Renham will guest more regularly at GeeGeez. His analysis is always very interesting and worth delving into deeper.

    Ray

  3. Peter Hodges says:

    Nice one Matt. Those trainers above 40% strike rate look well worth following. Lets hope Newcastle dries out for Saturday, but I doubt it.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Agreed re Newcastle, Peter. That was some flash flood they got earlier. Hard to recover from that.

      Matt

  4. andy campbell says:

    Thanks for the interesting Penalty Kick Sysyem.
    Could you clarify whether it is turf only or does it include all weather?
    Many thanks.

    Andy

  5. thomas brooks says:

    having read the very good penalty system i find it strange that distance has not been mentioned as a factor , surely a penalty in a 5furlong race race would have less effect than a penalty in a 2mile race, it is somewhat counter balanced by the fact that if horses dont get a good start or get hampered or bumped in shorter races has more effect than in a mile and a quarter race and upwards but still worth looking at the stats i feel your thomas ps find the geezer blog exellent

  6. Lee Greenhill says:

    Matt/Dave
    Great piece of research guys and certainly very useful. One other piece of info I’d be interested in is whether the horse was the top weight or whether this mattered or not? I would also be interested to see whether the Class 3’s were Classified stakes or Nursery races as I use these races that normally show the most improvement. Agree with Thomas above with the distance of races as I too believe that a weight penalty over a 5f sprint is less likely to affect performance.
    Keep up the good work.

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