Race Selection: The "Reverse Rule 4"

“The Reverse Rule 4” Method

Few things are more frustrating than having a chunky Rule 4 deduction from a good bet, where you didn't even fancy the horse which was withdrawn.

Naturally, the chance of your bet winning is enhanced by the reduced number of rivals, and in any case you might have been wrong not to 'like' the withdrawn horse. But still, it's a situation that is frequently frustrating.

So, in today's video post, I want to highlight a way to put the boot on the other foot.

This strategy is actually about race selection as much as anything, and I know that is an area many readers struggle with - after all, there is rather a lot (ahem) of racing.

Enough with the verbiage and on with the show... click the video below to find out how to put the "Reverse Rule 4" to work for you.





If you have any questions or comments on this, do scribble them below, and I'll try to answer them.


p.s. For those who may be interested, below is the slide deck from the presentation (though most of the value is in the video walkthrough).



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13 replies
  1. deecaldee says:

    Is there a rough transcript even if just the salient points in bullet form for those who are unable to use the video?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi deecaldee

      I’ve appended the slides to the bottom of the post.


  2. Iain MacMillan says:

    Interesting and well thought out video. If you can’t find an alternative to the favourite you could always lay it on Betfair, in fact if you prefer to lay horse then this would be an excellent tool to find ‘at risk favourite’

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks a lot, Iain, and yes, absolutely. I deliberately avoided referring to the laying side of things, but you’re totally right, of course. The one proviso is that if you can’t find anything with which to take on the favourite, then it may well not be as weak as you first thought!


      • Paul Kendall says:

        Absolutely fascinating piece Matt but I can’t see that this is a tool for finding layable favourites when it’s about finding value from opposing them on the basis that the favourite is too short a price

        • Matt Bisogno says:

          Hi Paul

          Not completely sure I understood your comment, but I’ll try based on what I think you’re saying. Do revert if I’ve misunderstood.

          Basically, one person’s value opportunity from an opposable favourite is another person’s lay vehicle. It depends if you’re a backer or a layer, I guess.

          It was interesting in the end to see Wor Lass, who was 11/8 when I recorded the video, eventually sent off at 5/2. Neuf Des Coeurs, 9/4 and 5/2 at that time, went off 15/8 fav.

          Not the greatest results for an example video, but hopefully the method stands up in the macro, if not the micro!


  3. chrisiwyg2 says:

    Fascinating. I’ve used Instant Expert to discount tips quite successfully in the same way, but you are much more thorough than me.

    The idea of finding “false” favourites somehow never occured to me. I like it, like it a lot

    I notice there’s been a few small nibbles at Nonagon on Betfair since around the video time you delved into this one’s recent problems.

  4. Richard says:

    Keep ’em coming Matt. It’s like a punting masterclass all these articles. Truly brilliant work.

  5. sondrio2 says:

    Very informative and i do the same daily to find 2 or 3 lays at short prices, quite easy to do with the instant expert, takes no time at all.

  6. Chud777 says:

    Well I’ve learnt one thing today. When a short priced favourite is screaming out to be taken on, keep it damn simple. I backed two against Miningrocks, (frustratingly each way too!), when I should have quite simply layed him, win and place.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      A sample of one is not really representative, Richard. I think the key is in my closing comments. If you find poor value favourites, you have a great chance to get a solid price on anything else in the race. Obviously, it’s still got to win/place, but over time, getting – in this case – 30-40% bigger odds on what you’ve backed would see monkeys sat at typewriters come out in front!

      Of course, you can lay ’em too, but laying is a far less forgiving game in my experience.


      • Chud777 says:

        Yes fair comments Matt. I have been stung laying before, they always seem to win when you go near the pink!

        Still learnt a lot from the video though, and it was pleasing to see the favourite well beaten regardless.

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