The Shortlist 19th September 2013

shortlistIn the first of a new feature, replacing the daily placepot posts, which will become occasional around the big meetings, I'd like to introduce you to The Shortlist.

The Shortlist is a simple concept: I go through the Race Analysis Reports each day to find horses which I consider to be of interest. I then publish that list of horses here. Some will win, many will lose. It is hoped that the winners will cover the losers and leave a bit of gravy on the punting platter.

Now, before I go on, I need to make (labour!) a really important point. And it is this:

the Race Analysis Reports are deliberately interpretive. That is, different people will highlight different horses depending on whether they're using the win or place statistics, and which columns they sort on (based on which elements they consider most important in a given race).

So, these will be the horses on MY shortlist. Feel free to do with them what you will.

You may have a different shortlist, and you are most certainly encouraged to go and play with the numbers to find what works best for you.

Today's racecards are here.

OK, with that said, here is today's Shortlist, along with the best odds (all best odds guaranteed prices) at the time of writing.

Escape To Glory e/w - Ayr 3.40 15/2 BetVictor - 3rd 7/1

Grandorio - Ayr 4.40 10/1 BetVictor - 3rd 11/2

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Abou Ben e/w - Listowel 4.05 14/1 Coral - 4th 8/1

Blacklough e/w - Listowel 5.05 16/1 Coral - 2nd 12/1

Victrix Gale - Listowel 5.35 7/2 BetVictor - 3rd 3/1

Jazz Master - Kempton 8.40 - 2/1 Stan James - 2nd 15/8

Admiralofthesea - Kempton 9.10 13/2 Boylesports - 7th 10/3

***

My 'also considered' list comprises:

Swiftly Done - 4.10 Ayr 5/1 Boylesports - 4th 4/1
Circuitous e/w - 3.10 Ayr 11/1 BetVictor - 2nd 11/1
Dreamy Ciara e/w - 2.40 Ayr 33/1 BetVictor - 10th 25/1
Shesastar - 3.20 Yarmouth 11/2 BetVictor - 2nd 11/2
Nullarbor Sky - 4.50 Yarmouth 7/2 Coral - 3rd 10/3
Rocksilla - 5.20 Yarmouth 7/2 Paddy - WON 9/2
Byroness e/w - 7.10 Kempton 28/1 Hills - 5th 16/1

***

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11 replies
  1. Hugh says:

    Ha, following placepot success at Sandown yesterday using race analysis I have had a couple of goes today at Ponte and Yarmouth. Just one Nullaba Sky on both lists. That’s interpretation!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Haha, yes, indeed. It will be different for everyone. As an example, I tend to favour class (esp in 1-3) and going (esp on extremes) over other factors, though I also consider course form on quirky courses…

      Matt

  2. Mike Course says:

    hi Matt i know this isn’t the place but i just wanted your thoughts. Big Buck’s- probably going straight to the world hurdle at cheltenham, long absence, long way off and could plausibly be nothing like his former self but surely if he comes back the same if not better then 4/1 for the world hurdle 2014 is huge?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Mike

      I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole. He’s got to be 4/1 to turn up. Dreadful, awful, terrible bookmaker’s bet.

      Well, you asked for my thoughts!!!

      Matt

  3. kemal says:

    Matt this new race analysis tool looks interesting…but you’re only putting winners in the mix.Don’t you think that by putting second places into it(don’t know how much extra work ) it can give an even more accurate system.I mean if a horse comes second it shows some form..it could have been beaten a short head…or come up against a hot one etc etc. I mean coming second in a field of ten with the third 5 lengths back has got to be worth something..? Kemal

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Kemal (and others),

      I’d really recommend you take five minutes (or ten) to review the link in that post to another video post where I explain how everything works.

      If you do that, you’ll not that there’s a ‘place’ radio button on the Race Analysis Report which, when checked, will show you the horses’ win AND placed form in the same grid format. 🙂

      Best,
      Matt

  4. chris says:

    Like the RAR concept and your suggested shortlist; hope to build these into my daily form study.
    What time are you likely to post the shortlist?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Always depends on what else is going on, Chris, but with luck early – before 8am.

      Matt

  5. mikeaston says:

    Thanks Matt for your sterling efforts with the placepots it certainly pointed me in the right direction although not a heavy stakes man I made a few bucks thanks and I hope to see your major festival pots one thing which has puzzled me for ages and i am afraid to ask the dividend winners are declared to two decimal places when the minimum bet is 10p how does that happen.?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Mike

      Dividend is always declared to £1. You simply divide the percentage you have by that. So if you have 10p of the placepot, you divide the divvy by 10. If you have 20p of it, divide by five, and so on.

      Hope that makes sense,
      Matt

  6. mintyrambler says:

    Matt – Thanks for the placepot experience as it paid a fair chunk towards our holiday recently. The Shortlist is yet another great idea from Geegeez – you are an inspired Team !

    Great Stuff

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