The Shortlist 2nd October 2013

shortlist

Nothing much went right for us yesterday, and although enough ran OK, none were good enough to win and there were a few horror stories. Ben Cee Pee M being brought down at the first about summed it up.

Onwards, and I especially like Bowstar, and have wagered her accordingly.

Today's racecards are here.

OK, with that said, here is today's Shortlist, along with the best odds (all best odds guaranteed prices) at the time of writing.

3.55 Sal - Charles Camoin - 16/1 bet365
8.40 Kem - Troopingthecolour e/w - 16/1 Lads
9.10 Kem - Bowstar - 9/2 Betfred

***

My 'also considered' list comprises:

4.00 Sli - Highdown Hill - 8/1 PP
5.00 Sal - Miliika e/w - 10/1 bet365
5.20 New - Lizzy's Dream - 5/1 PP
5.20 New - Pearl Noir e/w - 12/1 Betfred
6.40 Kem - Tennessee e/w - 10/1 BetVictor
7.10 Kem - Diplomatic e/w - 12/1 bet365

***

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The Shortlist is a simple concept: I go through the Race Analysis Reports each day to find horses which I consider to be of interest. I then publish that list of horses here. Some will win, many will lose. It is hoped that the winners will cover the losers and leave a bit of gravy on the punting platter.

Now, before I go on, I need to make (labour!) a really important point. And it is this:

the Race Analysis Reports are deliberately interpretive. That is, different people will highlight different horses depending on whether they're using the win or place statistics, and which columns they sort on (based on which elements they consider most important in a given race).

So, these will be the horses on MY shortlist. Feel free to do with them what you will.

You may have a different shortlist, and you are most certainly encouraged to go and play with the numbers to find what works best for you.

As regular readers will know, it makes absolute sense to get the best price you can about any selection you're backing. Put another way, it makes no sense whatsoever to accept a shorter price than the best available unless you've got too much money and are keen to give some away! 😉

So, if you don't already have accounts with all the main bookmakers, you should get them. Seriously. Not only will they give you free bets when you start, but you'll also - more importantly - always get the best value on any bet you make by ensuring you take the top price. It's just daft not to.

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31 replies
  1. martin says:

    Hi Matt…we are a contrarian lot….no winners…no comments.

    I backed Gran Canaria Queen, Beat The Tide and Cheeky Wee Red using the RARs and would agree with your comments that the horses ran O.K without winning or placing. Gran Canaria Queen and Beat The Tide travelled well enough for much of their respective races but when push came to shove they didn’t have much extra at the end. Cheeky Wee Red was disappointing even factoring in the long break from the track.

    Yesterday just goes to show that despite the quality of RARs, your not going to win everyday and it isn’t a ‘golden goose’. A reality check of sorts.

    Martin

  2. martin says:

    Hi Matt I can’t believe you have put Bowstar up, on your analysis it seems a poor bet, but the other 2 look to have good e/w chances. matin

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Martin,

      From what I can see, it’s a poor race with no clear selection. However, if you click the Place button… 😀

      Chris

      PS I’m not speaking for Matt here, just my own observation.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Re Bowstar, here’s a little snippet from the trainer:

      Bowstar – ex-Juddmonte horse, this was the one which really caught the trainer’s eye. She’s only rated 62, but Attwater believes she could eventually be as high as 80, and thinks she’s extremely well handicapped. She has had her problems, and she’ll come on for her first (next) run in a couple of weeks time, but Mike hopes to win at least a couple with her. Best handicapped horse in the yard.

      If you look at the full horse form tab, you’ll see that two of her three 7f runs were in her first three starts, when she was uncompetitive in maidens. Her third 7f run was two starts back when she got badly bumped at the start. That aside, she’s a classic RAR type, and nominated on my shortlist accordingly. Remember, the RAR is interpretive in any case. 😉

      Matt

  3. martin says:

    Hi Chris that puts a different perspective on it, perhaps Matt meant to put it up as having an e/w chance. which I agree with. Martin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      ps I’m not asking you to agree with me. This is MY list. Feel free to share your own shortlist here in the comments. In fact, I might encourage that in future days. 🙂

      • Paul says:

        Hi Matt, Tried the RAR ‘solo’ for the first time on Sunday and found two winners from six. I did think at the time though that it would be good to argue and discuss my selections with others so if you can make space for that on a Sunday, I for one would welcome it.
        Paul

        • Matt Bisogno says:

          Hi Paul

          I’m keen to make space for users to discuss things more widely, and of course the RAR output too, and that’s in the ‘coming soon’ folder for geegeez. But yes, I definitely think a users’ Sunday forum in lieu of The Shortlist is a good idea. Will try to get that set up.

          Matt

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      She ran three weeks ago, AJ, and needed that run. In the circumstances, she did very well to be less than a length third. Ought to have come on plenty for that.

  4. martin says:

    This is going to get confusing….The first Martin posting (9.17am) (me) isn’t the same as the second Martin who posted @ 9.58am and 10.16am….tricky this commenting business-;)

    Posting this because anyone reading the postings may think they are at odds with each other…two different Martins.

    Martin

  5. David says:

    I’m a Bowstar fan too. Best figures I have are all over a mile but she is a prominent racer who usually just fails towards the end. The most recent 7f run can be excused due the bump at the start Matt mentioned and the 5/1 looks juicy enough to me…

    David

  6. david palmer says:

    we all have different ways for picking any selection.
    my selection is, figure of speech 4/30 salisbury—-5/4
    i dont mind backing short prices.
    good luck.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It’s the Race Analysis Report, Danny. That’s a tab in the racecards. Click a race, then you’ll see four tabs: Card, Result, Full Horse Form, and Race Analysis. The last one we call the RAR for short. 🙂

      Matt

  7. Karl says:

    Everyone uses these cards in different ways, I personally look for longer priced horses who are proven at the grade, then going and then distance. If a horse has 2 lots of green in these fields and the rest of the fields are yellow I’m interested, I’ll even consider red areas if the horse in question is young enough to improve over a distance, or they have had 1 or 2 runs and no wins . I click over to place cards and look at that. Since these cards started I have had a good deal of success, because of the visual aid rather than previously looking at a spreadsheet of numbers. Todays picks, (done last night at 01.00 hrs were Charles Camoin (non runner) Cape Samba (won, backed at 8/1), Willbeme (2nd Backed at 12/1) and Magic Secret, (won backed at 20/1). A very nice return on a small each way lucky 15. This is the third substantial payout for me in the last 3 weeks.

    Keep up the brilliant work Matt.

    Karl

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Excellent work, Karl, and your example is a perfect illustration of how different people will use the info in different ways. As you rightly say, one of its strongest assets, is the ease with which you can see what you need to see, irrespective of what specifically you are looking for.

      Well done on the nice returns!

      Matt

  8. Blokeshead says:

    Nice call on Troopingthecolour, Matt. I’m happy already. However, I also have the same beast in a double with Bowstar. I’ll be a lot happier if that one comes in.

    Squeaky Bum Time! 🙂

  9. john Begg says:

    The last at Kempton – a horse with a career low mark and a 7lb claimer with a low draw I am quite keen on Sea Soldier myself.

  10. John Begg says:

    I Bow to the wisdom of the Star(s) in this blog well done to those who picked it.

  11. Paul says:

    Hi Matt,
    I suppose you think you’re the dog’s blocks now but I have to tell you that we all know you’re only using the very excellent RAR to find your winners.
    Highest Regards (I’ve just made a tidy sum and there’s a small smile on my face),
    Paul

  12. martin says:

    Hi Matt got to hand it to you, you were spot on regarding Bowstar didn’t back it myself but did have Troopingthecolour e/w. Martin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It’s (very) nice when they win, Martin, but it would have still been the right pick for me even if she’d lost. The fact that the trainer thinks she’s an 80 horse (running there off 62) did influence my judgement, I admit 😉

      Matt

  13. cronic says:

    Hi Matt, long time listener, first time caller….. 2 quid double on Troupingthecolour and Bowstar returned 178 from Betfair… from 2 quid, oh, did i mention it was 2 quid!!!, and loving the new race cards, thank you
    ,

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi cronic,

      Good to have you on board. It’s amazing what the RAR can do your account balance!

      Matt

      p.s. how much did you stake? 😉

  14. simon royle says:

    Thanks Matt..an EW double at the end of the day was a bit of a get out of jail card.
    Simon
    ps couldnt work out why you chose trooping , until I switched to place button

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Simon,

      Well done! Re trooping, the clue was in the “e/w” bit 😉

      Matt

  15. mintyrambler says:

    Excellent finish to the day 20.10 Kemp. WIN (D.D. comes up – again) – 20.40 Kemp. WIN at a tasty 14/1 – 21.10 Kemp. Matt’s NAP strolls home at 5/1 (took 9/2 on BOG with 365 earlier). You are stars, all of you !

    Cheers Guys

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