Hi, my name is Ray Thompson. Some of you might remember me as "Mondo Ray" from the old C4 Teletext tipping pages when I was perfecting my system of profiting by backing outsiders. In those days I covered Flat and Jumps, but rapidly distilled the system down to UK & Irish Jumps only as I continued gathering and processing relevant information. My background includes 10 years as an RAF Statistician with both Bomber and Fighter Commands in the 1960s and - believe me - you can't mess around with stats for armed aircraft!
Up to about three years ago, I wasn't keeping my betting records properly, just scraps of paper here and there, but as my system began to come together I realised quite quickly that - as in the Air Force - a system can literally crash without disciplined meticulous chronicling and ongoing modifications and amendments. Which is why, to continue the analogy and leave the metaphors to Matt, I've had this thing up and flying since the few from Teletext got together in November '09 to produce the SpawnofHYS site. And that's where all my selections and monthly collated stats can be found.
So, briefly, 2010 saw 1,075 selections return 1,476 (+401 points) to EP/BOG, and +126 to SP.
2011, we switched to Betfair on Jan 1st to maximise profits, and on 31st Dec the profit was +412 (to me, that was £4,120 to £10 stakes)
Worst months annually are obviously Summertime - late July through to mid-September - so although I'll continue to give out the selections, they come with a "caution" notice for that period.
We don't back anything at less than double figures, preferably 16/1+. Most wins are at 25/1, then 16/1, then 20/1, a handful at 33/1 and 14/1, 2 at 40/1 in 2010.
After studying every single Jumps race from Jan 1st 2010 to April 30th 2012, I now know the age/rating/distance/going/trainer/jockey likely to be one of the many outsiders that win Handicap Hurdles & Chases year upon year, time after time. And although it's a small Strike Rate - 5% last year, 5.6% in 2010, it's a constant source of fun and decent profit.
There's more! In 2010, apart from the 56 winners, there were a FURTHER 157 placed horses, from 3 at 66/1 downwards, added to the winners a 20% Strike Rate on place only bets! I've since condensed that to only taking 5 (4/1) minimum on Betfair, which will increase this year's profits by not betting on the smaller-priced ones.
Most tipsters are out to make a fast buck, a winner a day, a swift but tiny profit; these are the Hares of Aesop's fable, the purveyors of odds-on and short-priced favourites that they have the cheek to call "tips" and even charge you good money for. I'm the Tortoise, I plod along making the occasional big hit that, at the end of the month or year, gives you a nice juicy profit to chew on as you will.
I'll fetch more stats/trends to the table as we progress. But I'm not sprinting; happy strolling guys!
Wednesday 23rd May
There are eight contenders this evening.
Wor 6.50 Wake Board 20/1
Sli 7.10 Tin Town Boy 14/1
Sed 7.30 Arizona High 25/1
Sli 7.40 Seldom Fed 14/1
Sed 8.00 Pen Gwen 14/1
Sli 8.10 Bean Chroi Bhriste 20/1
Sed 8.30 The Black Lion 16/1
Wor 8.50 Priest Field 25/1
Betfair markets aren't formed fully yet for this evening, but the Early industry prices are a fair guide to what to expect - at least half as much again, more if you can get it, when the exchange money comes. Place bets should be made at a MINIMUM of 5 (4/1). For instance Arizona High is already at 7, which I've taken.