The Value Thief

The Value Thief Review

The Value Thief

The Value Thief

The Value Thief Review

Our take on The Value Thief...

The Value Thief is another service from the small portfolio of tipsters that operate under the Tipster Street umbrella whose aim is to provide profitable services at affordable prices.

The Value Thief (TVT from now on!) was launched in March 2014 and is profitable across all codes of racing, but does seem to get its best returns from Flat Turf racing, making the next two months an ideal time to test him out!

We are told to expect an average of 60 selections per month from TVT, as has been the case with 713 selections in the first full year of the service. All the selections are straight win bets and there's no staking system either: all bets are 1pt bets at Betfair SP and the service tends to focus on selections in 3/1 to 10/1 zone seeking out some value.

Since inception in March 2014 to the end of February 2015, the results for TVT were as follows:
713 selections for total stakes of 713pts,
202 winners at a strike rate of 28.33%,
555.17pts profit at betfair SP (less 5% commission, of course!) at an ROI of 77.86%!

Should TVT replicate those excellent numbers over the next two months, then we should expect the trial to come in at around 34 winners from 118 bets, making around £925 from an £1180 outlay, this would make TVT one of the best we've ever reviewed, so no pressure! 😀

That would also make the subscription fees look very reasonable indeed and they are currently set at £19.95 per month or just £39.95 (33% discount) per quarter with the added bonus of the first month at a mere £4.99.

This effectively means those signing up for the quarterly package would pay £44.94 for four months access, a deal only bettered by the £159.95 fee for lifetime membership.

David Sutton will be reviewing The Value Thief for the next couple of months using a level £10 stake for each bet and declaring our results daily at Betfair SP, less 5% commission from any winning bets, of which we expect plenty!

Chris Worrall
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The Value Thief Review Results

TVT Day 1 : 16/03/2015

2.35 Southwell - Billy Cuckoo u/p at 25.37

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 0/1 (0.00% SR) : -£10.00

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TVT Day 2 : 17/03/2015

4.55 Southwell - What Asham won at 3.00

Daily Results : 1/1 : +£19.00
Overall : 1/2 (50.00% SR) : +£9.00

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TVT Day 3 : 18/03/2015

3.35 Warwick - Belmount won at 4.01

Daily Results : 1/1 : +£28.59
Overall : 2/3 (66.67% SR) : +£37.59

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TVT Day 4 : 19/03/2015

3.15 Wolverhampton - Captain Revelation 2nd at 3.00

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 2/4 (50.00% SR) : +£27.59

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TVT Day 5 : 20/03/2015

3.45 Newbury - Wuff 2nd at 4.20
6.45 Wolverhampton - Kyllach Me won at 3.80

Daily Results : 1/2 : +£16.60
Overall : 3/6 (50.00% SR) : +£44.19

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TVT Day 6  : 21/03/2015

2.40 Stratford - Warrant Officer 3rd at 12.00
3.15 Stratford - Take The Mick u/p at 5.30
3.25 Kelso - Gallery Exhibition u/p at 7.96
5.00 Stratford - Native Explorer 3rd at 10.89
5.25 Fontwell - Onwiththeparty u/p at 3.37

Daily Results : 0/5 : -£50.00
Overall : 3/11 (27.27% SR) : -£5.81

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TVT Day 7 : 22/03/2015

3.05 Market Rasen - The Society Man u/p at 5.64
3.05 Market Rasen - Sir Lynx won at 6.00
3.55 Wincanton - Hatters River n/r

Daily Results : 1/2 : +£37.50
Overall : 4/13 (30.76% SR) : +£31.69

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TVT Day 8 : 23/03/2015

3.00 Towcester - Cannon Fodder u/p at 12.00
3.00 Towcester - A Shade Of Bay pu at 9.85
3.20 Taunton - Barton Rose f at 13.50
4.10 Wolverhampton - Fantasy Gladiator 3rd at 8.87
4.30 Towcester - Cosway Spirit won at 3.05
5.20 Taunton - Elton Fox pu at 7.68

Daily Results : 1/6 : -£30.53
Overall : 5/19 (26.31% SR) : +£1.16

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TVT Day 9 : 24/03/2015

No selections today

Overall : 5/19 (26.31% SR) : +£1.16

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TVT Day 10 : 25/03/2015

4.10 Newton Abbot - Brody Bleu won at 3.81
4.10 Newton Abbot - Bravo Riquet u/p at 4.97

Daily Results : 1/2 : +£16.69
Overall : 6/20 (30.00% SR) : +£17.85

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TVT Day 11 : 26/03/2015

4.45 Newbury - Champagne Rian pu at 13.51

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 6/21 (28.57% SR) : +£7.85

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TVT Day 12 : 27/03/2015

2.00 Lingfield - Margot Rose 3rd at 4.11
4.05 Lingfield - Smidgen won at 3.60

Daily Results : 1/2 : +£14.70
Overall : 7/24 (29.17% SR) : +£22.55

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TVT Day 13 : 28/03/2015

No selections today

Overall : 7/24 (29.17% SR) : +£22.55

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TVT Day 14 : 29/03/2015

No selections today

Overall : 7/24 (29.17% SR) : +£22.55

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TVT Day 15 : 30/03/2015

4.20 Kempton - Morgans Bay u/p at 9.20

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 7/25 (28.00% SR) : +£12.55

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TVT Day 16 : 31/03/2015

3.05 Exeter - Russborough won at 9.93
4.00 Southwell - Samtu u/p at 2.66

Daily Results : 1/1 : +£74.83
Overall : 8/26 (30.76% SR) : +£87.38

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TVT Day 17 : 01/04/2015

2.10 Towcester - Crouching Harry u/p at 6.50
3.40 Towcester - Alder Mairi 2nd at 3.20
3.50 Wincanton - Days Ahead 2nd at 5.30
3.50 Wincanton - Royal Native n/r at 0.00
7.45 Kempton - Jarlath u/p at 6.20

Daily Results : 0/4 : -£40.00
Overall : 8/30 (26.67% SR) : +£47.38

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TVT Day 18 : 02/04/2015

3.00 Ludlow - Drumshambo u/p at 11.80
3.20 Taunton - Polstar u/p at 6.80
4.00 Ludlow - Workbench u/p at 7.40

Daily Results : 0/3 : -£30.00
Overall : 8/33 (24.24% SR) : +£17.38

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TVT Day 19 : 03/04/2015

4.30 Musselburgh - Presssure Point u/p at 5.12

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 8/34 (23.53% SR) : +£7.38

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TVT Day 20 : 04/04/2015

1.25 Haydock - Village Vic pu at 3.40
2.15 Kempton - Speculative Bid won at 5.50
3.00 Newton Abbot - Grey Gold u/p at 4.10

Daily Results : 1/3 : +£22.75
Overall : 9/37 (24.32% SR) : +£30.13

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TVT Day 21 : 05/04/2015

3.15 Plumpton - Noble Friend won at 4.58
3.15 Plumpton - Sportsreport u/p at 9.60
3.00 Plumpton - Ethelred 2nd at 6.37

Daily Results : 1/3 : +£15.80
Overall : 10/40 (25.00% SR) : +£45.93

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TVT Day 22 : 06/04/2015

1.30 Chepstow - Audacious Plan u/p at 3.45
4.00 Plumpton - Un Anjou u/p at 6.40
3.00 Market Rasen - Engrossing u/p at 10.00

Daily Results : 0/3 : -£30.00
Overall : 10/43 (23.25% SR) : +£15.93

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TVT Day 23 : 07/04/2015

3.00 Pontefract - Edgar Balthazar u/p at 6.20

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 10/44 (22.72% SR) : +£5.93

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TVT Day 24 : 08/04/2015

3.20 Catterick - Asteroidea u/p at 3.60
3.30 Lingfield - McDelta u/p at 4.10
7.45 Kempton - Fit The Bill 2nd at 3.85

Daily Results : 0/3 : -£30.00
Overall : 10/47 (21.27% SR) : -£24.07

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TVT Day 25 : 09/04/2015

4.50 Taunton - Australia Day n/r

Daily Results : 0/0 : +£0.00
Overall : 10/47 (21.27% SR) : -£24.07

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TVT Day 26 : 10/04/2015

4.50 Fontwell - Town Mouse won at 9.38
4.50 Fontwell - Very Noble 2nd at 5.35

Daily Results : 1/2 : +£69.61
Overall : 11/49 (22.45% SR) : +£45.54

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TVT Day 27 : 11/04/2015

No selections today

Overall : 11/49 (22.45% SR) : +£45.54

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TVT Day 28 : 12/04/2015

No selections today

Overall : 11/49 (22.45% SR) : +£45.54

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TVT Day 29 : 13/04/2015

No selections today

Overall : 11/49 (22.45% SR) : +£45.54

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TVT Day 30 : 14/04/2015

3.00 Exeter - Adrenalin Flight 2nd at 4.95

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 11/50 (22.00% SR) : +£35.54

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TVT Day 31 : 15/04/2015

Your first 30 days for just £1

No selections today

Overall : 11/50 (22.00% SR) : +£35.54

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TVT Day 32 : 16/04/2015

5.40 Newmarket - Mohatem u/p at 4.71

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 11/51 (21.56% SR) : +£25.54

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TVT Day 33 : 17/04/2015

3.35 Ayr - Vengeur De Guye f at 12.00
5.55 Southwell - To The Sky 3rd at 3.81

Daily Results : 0/2 : -£20.00
Overall : 11/53 (20.75% SR) : +£5.54

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TVT Day 34 : 18/04/2015

1.25 Ayr - Puffin Billy won at 5.21
3.10 Ayr - Duke Of Navan won at 5.54
3.10 Ayr - Yorkist 2nd at 9.20

Daily Results : 2/3 : +£73.12
Overall : 13/56 (23.21% SR) : +£78.66

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TVT Day 35 : 19/04/2015

4.40 Wincanton - Bang On Time won at 2.58

Daily Results : 1/1 : +£15.01
Overall : 14/57 (24.56% SR) : +£93.67

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TVT Day 36 : 20/04/2015

No selections today

Overall : 14/57 (24.56% SR) : +£93.67

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TVT Day 37 : 21/04/2015

2.10 Ludlow - Town Mouse 3rd at 4.20
7.50 Brighton - Poetic Choice u/p at 4.73

Daily Results : 0/2 : -£20.00
Overall : 14/59 (23.73% SR) : +£73.67

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TVT Day 38 : 22/04/2015

2.00 Catterick - Takafol 2nd at 5.00
4.05 Perth - Edmund Kean 2nd at 3.60
5.10 Perth - Amilliontimes n/r
5.15 Taunton - Flashy Star u/p at 3.00

Daily Results : 0/3 : -£30.00
Overall : 14/62 (22.58% SR) : +£43.67

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TVT Day 39 : 23/04/2015

2.10 Warwick - American Spin n/r
5.25 Perth - One For Hocky 3rd at 9.47

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 14/63 (22.22% SR) : +£33.67

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TVT Day 40 : 24/04/2015

2.40 Perth - Witness In Court n/r
3.45 Perth - Ubaltique 2nd at 8.36
5.25 Plumpton - Golanova won at 4.92
7.40 Chepstow - Leith Hill Legasi pu at 5.00

Daily Results : 1/3 : +£17.24
Overall : 15/66 (22.72% SR) : +£50.91

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TVT Day 41 : 25/04/2015

5.10 Ripon - Elusive Epona u/p at 7.80

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 15/67 (22.38% SR) : +£40.91

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TVT Day 42 : 26/04/2015

No selections today

Overall : 15/67 (22.38% SR) : +£40.91

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TVT Day 43 : 27/04/2015

No selections today

Overall : 15/67 (22.38% SR) : +£40.91

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TVT Day 44 : 28/04/2015

No selections today

Overall : 15/67 (22.38% SR) : +£40.91

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TVT Day 45 : 29/04/2015

4.30 Wolverhampton - Luna Mission u/p at 4.91
6.55 Lingfield - Perfect Bounty 3rd at 4.58

Daily Results : 0/2 : -£20.00
Overall : 15/69 (21.73% SR) : +£20.91

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TVT Day 46 : 30/04/2015

2.45 Sedgefield - Classinaglass u/p at 3.87
4.20 Sedgefield - Generous Chief u/p at 4.00
8.05 Newton Abbot - Faith Jicaro n/r

Daily Results : 0/2 : -£20.00
Overall : 15/71 (21.12% SR) : +£0.91

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TVT Day 47 : 01/05/2015

No selections today

Overall : 15/71 (21.12% SR) : +£0.91

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TVT Day 48 : 02/05/2015

3.30 Uttoxeter - Still Believing u/p at 7.00

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 15/72 (20.83% SR) : -£9.09

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TVT Day 49 : 03/05/2015

No selections today

Overall : 15/72 (20.83% SR) : -£9.09

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TVT Day 50 : 04/05/2015

1.35 Beverley - Horsforth u/p at 8.00
1.40 Windsor - Mia San Triple u/p at 4.23
1.45 Warwick - Artifice Sivola u/p at 6.80

Daily Results : 0/3 : -£30.00
Overall : 15/75 (20.00% SR) : -£39.09

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TVT Day 51 : 05/05/2015

4.10 Sedgefield - Scorpions Sting n/r 
6.50 Exeter - Sedgemoor Express n/r 

Overall : 15/75 (20.00% SR) : -£39.09

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TVT Day 52 : 06/05/2015

No selections today

Overall : 15/75 (20.00% SR) : -£39.09

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TVT Day 53 : 07/05/2015

1.50 Worcester - Vujiyama ur at 5.50
2.20 Worcester - Fond Memory won at 4.10
3.00 Newton Abbot - Lucky Jim u/p at 8.95
3.35 Newton Abbot - The Happy Warrior won at 3.44
8.20 Wincanton - Kentford Myth won at 9.00

Daily Results : 3/5 : +£108.63
Overall : 18/80 (22.50% SR) : +£69.54

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TVT Day 54 : 08/05/2015

No selections today

Overall : 18/80 (22.50% SR) : +£69.54

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TVT Day 55 : 09/05/2015

3.10 Ascot - Solar Magic 2nd at 5.03
4.40 Lingfield - Tigers Tail u/p at 4.50

Daily Results : 0/2 : -£20.00
Overall : 18/82 (21.95% SR) : +£49.54

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TVT Day 56 : 10/05/2015

No selections today

Overall : 18/82 (21.95% SR) : +£49.54

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TVT Day 57 : 11/05/2015

7.00 Towcester - High Kite pu at 7.44
7.00 Towcester - By The Boardwalk won at 5.50

Daily Results : 1/2 : +£32.75
Overall : 19/84 (22.62% SR) : +£82.29

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TVT Day 58 : 12/05/2015

4.15 Sedgefield - Degooch f at 4.80
5.50 Southwell - Owen Na View 2nd at 6.80
5.50 Southwell - Emral Silk f at 4.30

Daily Results : 0/3 : -£30.00
Overall : 19/87 (21.84% SR) : +£52.29

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TVT Day 59 : 13/05/2015

8.15 Bath - Moonrise Landing u/p at 4.70

Daily Results : 0/1 : -£10.00
Overall : 19/88 (21.59% SR) : +£42.29

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TVT Day 60 : 14/05/2015

No selections today

Overall : 19/88 (21.59% SR) : +£42.29

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This concludes a successful trial for The Value Thief which overall would get a tentative thumbs up for this review.  TVT hasn't replicated the performance noted in the service introduction (15 winners and 29 runners short of the prediction!) but it did win money and looks to have potential.

A/E Expected Winners Archie Winners Runners
1.11 17.13 0.25 19 89

Like it's fellow Tipster Street service Tevin Rynard Racing, it finished in profit (+£42.29).  The Value Thief didn't provide as many selections and the strike rate of 21.59% is more indicative of the price range TVT works in.  It also shows that strike rate in isolation doesn't give you a full reflection of performance because the A/E value (actual winners vs. expected winners ratio) is very similar (marginally better) to TRR.  My view is that TVT is providing some value to customers as befitting it's name.  It is quite possible that over time, this service will provide good profits but you have to have more patience and be more tolerant of losing streaks.

At £10 per point, the service won enough money to cover the expense of the service for the couple of months of the trial but only just. Nonetheless, if we consider that the period between Cheltenham and the Guineas is notoriously difficult, this outcome is satisfactory.

Profit : £42.29

Cost of service : 2 x £19.95 = £39.90

Net profit : £2.39

The month-by-month is as follows:-

March : £87.38 (16 days)
April : -£86.47
May : £41.38 (14 days)

April did prove to to be the undoing for The Value Thief, with the early profit gains from March wiped out by a poor show in April.  Thankfully, May has proved to be much, much better. The graph below doesn't show this too well but it does show the big winners and longer losing sequences of using TVT:-

image (1)

The service from Tipster Street for TRR and The Value Thief was excellent and consistent. The email arrived in my inbox between 9:30 and 10:15 without fail for the trial period. Without checking the exact timings, I'd say the weekday emails are sent at 10:00, the weekend emails are sent at 9:30 and if you have an email before that time, it generally means there's no bet.  All this gives the impression of a professional setup with good back office systems to support customer service.

Your first 30 days for just £1