Welcome to part 2 - week 2 - of this Three Week "The Price is Wrong" Challenge.
By now you should be comfortable reducing the 35-50 daily races down to between one and five upon which to focus attention. That was the focus of Part 1, Race Selection: if you haven't taken that on board yet, I'd recommend you do. The details are below.
Then, in this second part, we'll review the maths behind why beating the market is the key to long-term success; and we'll then go into shortlisting techniques and examples. There's nothing scary, I promise, though some elements might need a little practice: that's why we do things a week at a time!
Catch Up
First, read this short introductory article.
Part 1, below, is about Race Selection: choosing your battles. Check that out here >
Part 2 - Shortlisting
And now we move the focus from the day's racing to individual races. Our next job is to whittle down a field of eight to ten runners to a handful of contenders. And that is the primary focus of today's video. Have a watch and then put these ideas to work for you.
HINT: If the video speed is a little slow for you (I do speak quite slowly), you can use the 'cog' icon in the bottom right of the video to change 'playback speed'. 1.5x might be an optimal combination of speed and comprehensibility, but you can figure what works best out for yourself!
Matt, Thanks a brilliant insight. The percentages of returns on all the different prices was particularly enlightening. Where do you get all that information from.? Would you be able to post the place returns in a similar manner or could I find the information myself. I like to lay favourites for a place at short prices, in handicaps where they are unfavoured by conditions or they are tackling the conditions for the first time. This information in handicaps would be invaluable.
Thanks for your help. In over 50 years of following the sport I have never had such incredible data as is available on GEEGEEZ.
Cheers. Keith Watson
Hi Keith
Great to hear you’re loving the range of data we have, and thanks for checking in with the videos.
Regarding place returns, I’ll cover that in the QT web broadcast today.
Best,
Matt
Cheers for this video Matt. Appreciate the advice on the shortlisting alongside all the other videos- Im enjoying listening in and Ill be giving it a try over the next few days. Interesting what you are suggesting about the market backing up your decisions. I am always thinking that I am looking for increased value with a higher price to make the most of my insight or edge via the groundwork. I guess over time, going against the market wont pay dividends.
Hi Steve
Thanks for your comment. On prices, value is not an absolute: that is, a higher price is not always value. In fact, as you can see from that table, it’s not often value!
Value is about price in the context of probability. I’d bet all I had on night following day at 1/100, for instance, but wouldn’t have a red penny for Elvis being found alive at 10,000,000/1 – as a ridiculously far-fetched example.
Thanks also for engaging with the challenge, and I hope you find it helpful.
Best,
Matt
thanks. Matt
Whilst accepting the principle of this is all about value, I’m a little surprised that there is no discussion of exchange prices here…..for example, waikiki returned 15.5 bsp….whilst bsp/exchange markets have definitely changed with off course sp calculation, I still think backing anything bigger than 5/1 is usually better on the exchanges
Hi Dave
We don’t have exchange data available to us, so I can’t set a challenge around that.
However, the whole subject of bet selection IS part three of the challenge, so stay tuned!
Matt
Very informative video and I appreciate the Challenge-series as a whole. What the price analysis is concerned, in the first section of the video, is that’s value betting we’re doing here, maybe in it’s truest sense. ‘Value betting’ is not a dirty phrase, but yeah, it’s an expression that’s scattered around and used too quickly at times. Without going into that discussion, I was wondering whether you’d go into this a little in your third video, purely from a bookmaker’s point of view. What are your thoughts on restrictions because of value betting (where ISP is smaller than price taken), what are do’s and don’t’s, the tips and tricks.
I never know whether to back early,mid term or late. Is there any way people have success with how the market is likely to go. Cheers
I find if you can get on early ie the night before racing on average you will be better off. If you can do this and also get best odds guaranteed then you are almost certainly going to be even better off.
Not many bookmakers are now offering both. Obtaining early prices that consistently beat the book though will end up with your account restricted but it is still worth doing. To put said bookmaker off the trail a little try different sports for small bets and the odd acca or lucky 15 on the horses just for fun bets. Withdrawing large amounts draws attention to your account so if you do withdraw then within a few hours re load your account and have a bet. This is to try to make the bookmaker think he has a chance of winning his moneyback. You could back at the bookie and lay on the exchange a few bets to transfer your winnings to betfair for withdrawal this will cost a little but will keep your account safe. Phew hope that all makes sense.
Thanks John – some really interesting insights there.
Matt
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