Time For Footy – Brrrring It On!

It is with much anticipation, dear reader, that us 'real' footy fans await the opening fouls, goals, and petulant babyish behaviour of grown men as the traps open once again for the Football League season. Those who prefer their sandwiches with small pink fishy crustaceans in them, and their clubs to be owned by billionaires will have to wait another week.

But for folks like me, tomorrow marks the start of ten months of joy and despair, in vindictively unequal measure, as our local teams take to the park for the first of forty-six league games. (And yes, I know, the SPL starts tomorrow as well. But that's the least competitive league on the planet and doesn't get me going as a result, I'm afraid.)

*Bisogno braces himself for cries of 'foul!' from readers north o'the border*

In fact, if you're a Middlesbrough or Sheffield United fan, the action starts tonight and it's live on the telly.

So what about a bet? Well, I nailed my colours to the ante-post mast a month ago today, and rowed in with the following as an interest wager for the season:

Middlesbrough @ 15/2
Milton Keynes Dons @ 10/1
Bury @ 14/1
Trixie, 4 bets * £10.00 EW

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And, bizarrely, two of these three teams form the headline choices of a new football service's pre-season advice as well.

The service is called The Oracle, and is run by some super-nerds who eat, sleep and breathe footy stats. Seriously, these guys make me look hopelessly innumerate (and regular readers will know how I do like my numbers...)

Anyway, what's all this got to do with you? Well, these fine statto's want you to try out their football selection service and, as a special 'start of the season' deal, they're going to let you have the info gratis for the whole of August. No charge. In fact, you don't even need to register your card details or go through PayPal.

All you have to do is provide your email address (which becomes your username in the  members' area), and that's it.

Get free football advice throughout August here: http://tinyurl.com/GeegeezFooty

There's tons of data there already. Here's the subject headings of articles you can get hold of straight away:

Date                      Title
Thursday, 06-Aug-2009     The Oracle
Thursday, 06-Aug-2009     Ante post lower league overview
Wednesday, 05-Aug-2009     The Oracle
Wednesday, 05-Aug-2009     Ante post part two: Best of the Rest
Wednesday, 05-Aug-2009     Ante post part three - Relegation
Monday, 03-Aug-2009     Ante post preview Part One - The Big Four
Saturday, 01-Aug-2009     Betting Guide Part 3
Friday, 31-Jul-2009     Betting Guide Part 2
Thursday, 30-Jul-2009     Betting Guide Part 1

And, to whet your appetite, here's a sample of one Premier League team in the review. In this case, I've picked out  Manchester City:

MANAGER: Mark Hughes - 45yo - since June 2008
RECORD: Man City   G56     W45% D14% L41%
Career      G244   W44%
FINANCES: Excellent
Robinho            14         (30-1)
Ireland              9          (34-1)
Elano                6          (21-7)
ASISSTS 08/09:
Ireland              9          (34-1)
Robinho            5          (30-1)
W-Phillips         3          (27)
IN: Kolo Toure, Emanuele Adebayor, Carlos Tevez, Gareth Barry, Roque Santa Cruz, Stuart Taylor
OUT: Elano, Ched Evans, Gelson Fernandes, Daniel Sturridge, Danny Mills, Michael Ball, Dietmar Hamann, Darrius Vassell,    Valeri Bojinov, Joe Hart, Felipe Caicedo, Shaleum Logan, Jo
GK Given
RB Richards
LB Bridge
CB Kompany
CB Toure
MD Barry
MD Wright Phillips
MD Ireland
CF Tevez
CF Adebayor
CF Robinho
GK Taylor
DF Dunne
DF Zabaleta
DF Onouha
DF Garrido
DF Ben Haim
MD De Jong
MD Petrov
MD Johnson
MD Etuhu
CF Santa Cruz
CF Bellamy
CF Benjani
STATS 08/09:
HW%                                                                     68
AW%                                                                     11
GOALS FOR                                                           58
GOALS AGAINST                                                    50
GOALS PER GAME (GPG)                                        2.8
GPG V BIG 4                                                          2.5
GPG V BOTTOM 4                                                  3.6
OVER 2.5 GOALS %                                               55
UNDER 2.5 GOALS %                                             45
OVER 3.5 GOALS AT HOME %                                37
OVER 3.5 GOALS AWAY %                                     21
CLEAN SHEETS                                                      10
WON TO NIL %                                                     26
POINTS                                                                 50
POINTS PER GAME (PPG)                                     1.3
PPG V BIG 4                                                         0.5
PPG V BOTTOM 4                                                 1.8
Moneybags Manchester City have spent big over the summer and Mark Hughes will be under a lot of pressure to succeed. The Welshman is favourite to be the first manager of the new season to lose his job and this could be a likely scenario if the team doesn’t gel together quickly. On paper City look to have a very strong squad with plenty of goals in the side. The defence still looks a little weak in comparison to the big four clubs but don’t rule out more signings before the start of the season, starting with Joleon Lescott.
Along with new signings Adebayor, Barry, Toure, Santa Cruz and Tevez, City can also welcome back Michael Johnson from a long term injury and he will be like another new signing. Crucial to City’s success this year will be their away form which let them down badly last season. The Citizens finished twenty two points adrift of fourth place last season and this is a big gap to bridge. Pre season results have not been great either and I think they are going to take quite a while to get going. City are currently trading at 11/10 on Betfair to finish “best of the rest” and this price has crashed in over the summer. However, I think that this is a big overreaction to the expensive new signings who have arrived and whilst City should be favourites for fifth, I feel they are trading far too short. A slow start will see that price drift like a barge and for that reason alone I think they are well worth laying. Much will depend on the patience of their Arab owners and a knee jerk managerial change a couple of months into the season will only add to the time it is going to take City to challenge the big four. I think they need one season to stabilise and with one or two big money signings next summer could be in a very strong position to break the big four stranglehold on the Premiership. For the time being though, I would advise that you lay them for best of the rest with a view to trade on the market during the season.
As you can see, it's pretty comprehensive stuff and, as well as the analysis, stats and tips, there's also some really sound advice on football betting in general. I'd go so far as to suggest that this advice is worth your time to sign up in itself.
Here's the link again: http://tinyurl.com/GeegeezFooty
Now then, as many of you noticed the other day, I posted a video blog. Unfortunately, due to occasional (though increasingly frequent) bouts of buffooneritis, I failed to make the link in the email clickable. Of course, many of you tech-savvy chaps and chapesses were able to copy and paste the link into your browsers. But I know from the deluge of mail I received that lots of you were frustrated by my ineptitude and didn't get to view my video blog debut.
Although it's fair to say that the Palme d'Or is likely to elude me for at least one more year, there was lots of info in it, so it's worth a squint if you haven't already. You can check it out here: Watch Matt on Internet Telly
It's been a pretty quiet week on the horses front, with the best of the beasts having either run at Goodwood last week or being saved for York next week. Still, there's quantity if not quality, and plenty of races means plenty of winners to be unearthed. So unearth I'll try.
One such potential truffle in the mud is a horse called De Soto in Lingfield's 2.10 race. This chap's always been well regarded in the Paul Webber stable, and has been running in chases prior to his last time out fifth in a 1m5f maiden. This is his third run back after a break and, in a race where only a quartet go to post, double digit odds must represent value. He'll definitely be in the first four... 😉
Elsewhere, in the 7.15 at Newmarket tonight, David Elsworth's consistent Everaard might break a sequence of placed efforts by getting his nose in front. Elsy loves a winner at Newmarket and he might just rack another up tonight.
Finally, I'll be in Dublin (Greystones, to be precise) from this afternoon until Sunday night, so please bear with me if you send emails. I'll get to them as soon as I can, but it may not be the usual lightning response.
Have yourselves a great weekend and may your team be a winner in order to push the joy-despair swingometer firmly into the Joy Division...
p.s. Who's your best bet from the lower league football? Leave a comment below and share it with everyone.
p.p.s. Grab a free footy service until the end of the month - no payment details required -here:
Do it now before you forget!
4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold
18 replies
  1. ken weall says:

    Hi Matt, Oxford united are nailed on for the blue square premier @4/1 fill yer boots lads Ken

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Ken

      Good shout. I’d heard that from a reliable source too. Of course, I think they were pretty short last season as well… It’s a very tough division to escape from.


  2. Gavin says:

    No surprise here mate,

    Peterborough at 50/1 for the Championship. Up the Posh!


    P.S. Are we having the usual Posh v Cherries wager?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Yes, ten quid on whichever team finishes higher. To be honest, I’ll be happy if we finish the season at all! Transfer embargo still in place… 🙁

  3. hibby says:

    we footie fans like our football north of the border…ok its not brilliant stuff but at least we get our fix

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Fair play Hibby – I’m guessing you’re not a Jambo’s fan! 😉

      I spent a fair bit of time in Edinburgh in my RBS days, and I know that it’s not all about winning the SPL. In fact, beat the derby side and life’s sweet wherever you finish…


  4. Leo says:

    Hi Matt,
    The first market on the Melbourne Cup see’s
    Dermot Weld’s Profound Beauty as fav at 16-1
    In a racing radio interview Weld said he has
    set Profound Beauty for the Melbourne Cup.
    Last year the horse finished 5th running on.
    Aidan O Briens Changingoftheguard is 17-1 and
    Schiaparelli is at 20-1.
    230 first noms and a maximum field
    of 24.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Leo

      The latest odds here are broadly in line with that:

      Best Odds: Profound Beauty (17) , Rebel Raider (17) , Viewed (17) , Age Of Aquarius (21) , Alessandro Volta (21) , Changingoftheguard (21) , Cima De Triomphe (21) , Roman Emperor (21) , Schiaparelli (21) , Think Money (21) , Basaltico (26) , Cest La Guerre (26) , Doctor Fremantle (26) , Eastern Anthem (26) , Efficient (26) , Precedence (26) , Speed Gifted (26) , Unsung Heroine (26) , Varevees (26) , Capecover (34) – Others 34 or more

      Which of the home squad should UK punters be most aware of? Or is too early to say?


  5. Gary Camplin says:

    Barnsley will do well this season looking at players they have fetched in – back them for a top 6 finish @14/1 . If you really fancy them they are 200s with William Hill or 319s with betfair to win the league . Cum on you reds !!!!

  6. Michael says:

    Hello Matt , best early Australian horses would be Rebel Raider won Victoria Derby at Flemington last spring and South Australia Derby in April. Efficient and Shocking as well as the New Zealand mare Daisy are all expected to “do well”.

  7. Rob says:

    Sorry to rain on your parade Ken but LUTON should have the Blue Square wrapped up by Christmas.

    No minus 30pts to hold us back this season!


  8. C.CARROLL says:

    I hope the ORACLE guys are mor eon the ball with their selections than K.O times. They have Middlesbro’ v Shefff. Utd down for tomorrow lunchtime.

  9. Robert says:

    No problem , Matt, with your analysis of the SPL and it’s lack of competitiveness but black mark for not realising that the SPL does not get under way till August 15th, same as the Premier League in England.

  10. Michael says:

    Correction to my previous message about local early possibles for the Melbourne Cup . The New Zealand mare is called Daffodil ( not Daisy ) .

  11. Michael says:

    One more comment unrelated to this topic . I think Australia might just win the Heddingley Test !!!!!!

  12. Paul says:

    Just a quick mention about the Oracle.

    I’ve been receiving his emails for a good year, maybe two, and his analysis is excellent. The website is maintained by the same guy who runs Mathematician Betting’s site and the Oracle’s football analysis is on par with the horse racing work Guy does.

    I’m not particularly into football, not at all in fact, but I can vouch for his level of professionalism when it comes to statistical analysis.

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