Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Friday 11/10/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chepstow, Kempton, Newmarket & York.

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Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The big money is at Newmarket & York and we'll head to HQ and good to soft ground for the day's richest races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.07, a 15-runner, Class 2, 2yo fillies stakes over 7f...

Head To Head, Luna Girl and Wilhelmina all finished as runner-up on debut last month, whilst Rockin The Boat and Wild Angel both have two third place finishes from their two starts. Mother Mara is the only other with a run behind her and although she was five lengths down as 4th of 6 at Haydock on debut, it was at this grade and on good to soft ground.

Of those who have raced before, I'm unsure about Luna Girl and Wilhelmina stepping up two classes, so I'll omit them, but I am going to take (3) Head To Head because her debut run was the most impressive of this field, she represents the formidable O'Brien/Moore combo and has these numbers behind her...

I'll also take (12) Rockin The Boat who is a half-sister to quite a few runners, has shaped well in both stars so far and also has some good stats to support her as a selection...

...whilst of the debutantes (you just know at least one will go well!), it's very hard to ignore the claims of the Godolphin entry (13) Verse of Love. It's Newmarket, it's Godolphin, the breeding is good and it's Appleby & Buick and again the numbers are incredible...

Leg 2 @ 1.47, an 11-runner, 2yo Group 3 contest over 5f...

Kullazain, Treasure Isle and Blue Zodiac all won last time out (UK races) and Midnight Thunder comes here seeking a hat-trick. Mr Lightside and Coto de Caza have both won twice already, but Treasure isle's Listed class success at the Curragh is the only Class 1 win amongst this field's fifteen successes to date, although The Strikin Viking has a pair of Group 2 runner-up finishes to his name, beaten by just half a length each time.

Elsewhere at Class 1, La Bellota was a Gr 2 runner-up beaten by just a neck last time out, Mr Lightside was 3rd of 15 in the Gr3 Molecomb beaten by less than a length in July, Coto de Caza was 3rd of 14 in a Listed race at Ayr three weeks ago and Grande Marques was 3rd of 13 in a Group 3 race at Ayr a day later.

From all this, I'd take (3) Midnight Thunder as the form horse, (5) The Strikin Viking for his Group 2 performances and (6) Treasure Isle for consistency at a bigger price.

Leg 3 @ 2.25, a 10-runner, 2yo Group 3 contest over 7f...

All ten have won at least one race, but none at Class 1, although the consistent Flight (2213 so far) was third of nine at Group 2 last time out, headed late on and will hopefully appreciate the drop back to 7f, whilst Miss Fascinator was only beaten by half a length as a runner-up behind the promising Tabiti too good in a Group 3 race Salisbury last month and she has already won here at newmarket, albeit on the July course.

Charlie Appleby & William Buick won this race last year with Dance Sequence and they team up again here with the 2 from 2 Magical Trail although this looks tougher for her after a pair of Class 4 Novice races. William Haggas' First Instinct is also two from two and she comes here off the back of a Class 2 Novice success on good to soft ground at haydock, so the going should be fine and it's a smaller step up in class, although she has only raced at 6f so far.

And my shortlist is completed by Cathedral and Ecstatic. Cathedral's breeding is impeccable and she showed a blistering change of pace in an easy win on debut. Hard to tell what she'll end up as, but plenty of promise from that first run, whilst Ecstatic is probably/possibly better than her 5th of 10 at Doncaster last time out might suggest. She blew the start and stumbled out of the gates. It took her a little while to get going and then had to play catch-up, but did get to within four lengths of the winner and was two lengths behind Flight.

Our pace/draw heat map suggests the front end is the place to be, advancing the claims of Flight, Magical Trail, Cathedral and Ecstatic...

...and if I'm going to omit one of those four, I'd leave Cathedral out. I'm not sure what she's ging to be and she's drawn higher than the others, so I'll go with (2) Ecstatic, (4) Flight & (5) Magical Trail here.

Leg 4 @ 3.00, an 11-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over 7f...

Noble Dynasty was slowly away and finished last of eight in the Gr 2 Lennox Stakes last time out, but had won five of his previous six outings, including two over course and distance, so I'd not write him off just yet. Quinault comes here off the back of three successive Listed class wins. He's 4 from 5 here at HQ (2/3 on the Rowley) and prefers it softer than good.

Royal Scotsman won the Gr3 Diomed at Epsom back in June, making all in a fairly comfortable success and if showing no ill effects from not having raced since, could go really well here too. Witness Stand is 121 in his last three having won a Listed race at Newbury last month and bottom weight/sole filly Great Generation has four wins and a runner-up finish from her six starts to date, has won two Group 3 races already this year and receives weight all round (2 to 5lbs). All five of these show up really well on Instant Expert, as you'd expect...

...and these are the five that I'm going to choose from. Lower drawn runners go well here...

...as do front runners...

..so I'm taking (9) Witness Stand for ticking both boxes. (2) Noble Dynasty is my 'one to beat' here, so he's also in, leaving me with a one from three pick. I really liked Royal Scotsman's run LTO, but he's been away from the track and stall 11 isn't ideal for feeling your way in, the market isn't over keen on Great Generation, so I'll take the in-form front-running (4) Quinault.

Leg 5 @ 3.35, a 7-runner, 2yo Group 1 contest over 1m...

So seven run here and six have a decent chance in my opinion with six-race maiden Califonia Dreamer the exception. Anna Swan, Dreamy and Tabiti (mentioned earlier) are all 2 from 2, whilst Godolphin's Desert Flower is three from three and won a Group 2 contest last time out beating the re-opposing January by a length and a half in the process and her form and the strength of that last run put (4) Desert Flower straight on my ticket builder.

The three runners below her on the card have all also won at Class 1 with Dreamy landing a Group 3 last time out, January winning a Listed race two starts ago before bumping into Desert Flower LTO and the unbeaten Tabiti also a Group 3 winner last time out. Of this trio of Class 1 winners, January looks the weaker on form and also when you look at the pace data...

...so I'm with (4) Desert Flower, (5) Dreamy & (7) Tabiti for this one.

Leg 6 @ 4.10, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo handicap over 1m4f...

Grey Cuban won at Doncaster last time out and has won three of his last four and Mount Atlas is 131 from his last three starts having landed a Class 2 handicap at Ascot on his latest run, beating subsequent Melrose-winner Tabletalk by two lengths in the process. Brioini landed a soft ground handicap at Ascot on her last run and has made the frame in six of her eight starts (2 wins)

Kildare Legend was narrowly defeated as a runner-up at Pontefract but now seeks a hat-trick after wins at both Southwell and Doncaster, but he is up in class here. Due To Henry completes our list of LTO winners, having taken a Class 4 handicap by a neck at Newbury three weeks ago for a third win in his last six, whilst from a consistency perspective Blake has made the frame in 4 of 8 career starts and Goodwood Odyssey has done so 5 times from 7.



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Despite an 11-week layoff, the manner of Mount Atlas's win last time out and the subsequent form of Tabletalk, I think that he might well be the one to beat here. Kildare Legend is hot right now and Brioni looks really progressive and this trio are rightly at the head of the market and if I was just trying to find the winner here, I'd most likely go with one of this trio.

Things don't always go to plan, of course and in a big field, there are always hard-luck stories and horses outrunning their odds so, I'll add persistent placer Goodwood Odyssey to my selections. If truth be told, this could be a cracker of a race, where you could select six runners and still not get in the first three home!

But hopefully one or more of (3) Goodwood Odyssey, (4) Mount Atlas, (5) Brioni & (7) Kildare Legend will!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Head To Head, (12) Rockin The Boat & (13) Verse of Love

Leg 2: (3) Midnight Thunder, (5) The Strikin Viking & (6) Treasure Isle

Leg 3: (2) Ecstatic, (4) Flight & (5) Magical Trail

Leg 4: (2) Noble Dynasty, (4) Quinault & (9) Witness Stand

Leg 5: (4) Desert Flower, (5) Dreamy & (7) Tabiti

Leg 6: (3) Goodwood Odyssey, (4) Mount Atlas, (5) Brioni & (7) Kildare Legend

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



As ever, good luck, today looks fiercely tricky.
Chris

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