Tix Picks, Saturday 21/09/24

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chester, Newbury, Newmarket & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I think we'll head to the Rowley at HQ where the ground is expected to be good (firmer in places) for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo fillies novice stakes...

Of the four with racecourse experience, Fool Again and Sea To Sky are ther obvious picks after runner-up finishes on debut three weeks ago. Sea To Sky was second to Flight, whose career form reads 2213 after she subsequently finished third in a Group 2 race.

Sea To Sky also drops two classes here and with her yard in such great form right now...

...she'd be my main pick here, but I'd also take Fool Again on the back of her run at Beverely. She was slow away but soon got the hang of things, gave chase, stayed on and ended up a runner-up beaten by just half a length. Maywedance was 3 places and 7 lengths further back and she has gone on to make the frame since.

Of those making their debut today, Pearl Of Hope would be the one for me. She's a half-sister to a Group 1 winner and there's a stack of stats to suggest she might go well here...

I'll take runners 2, 6 & 7 here.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over a mile...

You could make a case for several of these in an open-looking race. Reach looked like she needed the run at York last time out, but had three wins and two places from her previous six outings and she's down two classes here. Surveyor has two wins and two runner-up finishes (inc LTO) from her last six, has already won over today's trip and also drops in class. Get Jiggy With It is another class-dropping LTO runner-up and she has made the frame in ten of her twelve career starts and overall I suspect we'll be making our selection from the top half of this graphic...

...and on the basis of this, I'll stick with my in-form class droppers Reach, Surveyor & Get Jiggy With It, aka runners 1, 4 & 11 with Sea Regal the obvious danger.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

King of Charm won last time out, as did Kracking, whilst Musical Mystery and Bell Shot were runners-up and Kodiac Thriller finished third and on form, they'd be my shortlist here. Of those, Kracking is stepping up two classes here, so that makes life more difficult for him, but he is 2121 in his last four and looks perfectly poised on the pace/draw heat map to make the frame chasing Bell Shot home perhaps?

...whilst Instant Expert for my shortlist looked like this...

All five are easily good enough to make the frame, but I need to make a decision and I'm going to side with Bell Shot, King Of Charm and Kodiac Thriller here, runners 4, 6 & 8. I did like Kracking too, but the two class rise and that IE graphic have tempered my enthusiasm a little, but he'll probably give it a right go up front.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Regal Envoy was a runner-up last time out, whilst both Ingra Tor and Angel Shared finished third. Miss Show Off ran really well at Sandown three weeks ago and despite finishing 4th of 10 was within three quarters of a length of the winner and a nose behind the above-mentioned Ingra Tor despite not having raced for 14 months since winning at Newbury in July 2023. Equiano Springs won this race in both 2021 and 2022, but the 10 yr old is on a 9-race losing streak.

From a pace perspective, it has paid to race in advance of mid-field here over the straight six, which gives an advantage to Dashing Dick, Miss Show Off, Regal Envoy, Angel Shared, Jungle Land, Spring Bloom and Ingra Tor (just!)

...whilst Instant Expert points to the following...

On countback of positive mentions, the closely-matched pair of Ingra Tor and Miss Show Off feature most, so I'll take both of them here with Spring Bloom as a backup plan ie runners 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...

Bringbackmemories won last time out a week ago for a second win in three starts (but last home of 16 in between the wins!). Story Horse, Robert Johnson and Premiere Ligne were all runners-up with the latter finishing 31222 in his last five whilst both Diamond Bay and bottom-weight Yorkindness has finished 323 in her last three. Elsewhere Tactician has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings and as the sole 3yo in the race will get a more than handy 11lbs weight allowance.

All bar Story Horse of the above seem well suited to the task ahead according to Instant Expert with the addition of Trooper Bisdee...

..and as earlier, I could sit and make a case for all of these, but based on form/Instant Expert, I'm going to go with Bringbackmemories, Premiere Ligne & Tactician, numbers 4, 6 and 10 on your racecards.

And we close with Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m2f...

Speriamo won two days ago in a race I covered and didn't pick her! Dubai Melody and Milliterries also won last time out. Ciara Pearl is 1223 in her last four, Chorus won two starts ago and Mrs Twig is two from four and three from six, but needs to bounce back from a couple of disappointing Class 3 outings, whilst Dayzee might need the run after 204 days off, although she does seem to have the ideal pace profile...

...along with Ciara Pearl who is the pick of the pack on Instant Expert...

...making her my first choice here and with both Chorus and Dubai Melody dropping down two classes and receiving 5lbs allowances as 3 yr olds, my picks here are runners 2, 4 & 5.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 2, 6 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1, 4 & 11

Leg 3: horses 4, 6 & 8

Leg 4: horses 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5: horses 4, 6 & 10

Leg 6: horses 2, 4 & 5

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

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• Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24
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