Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Newcastle, Salisbury, Southwell & Warwick.
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Today's pools
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
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The biggest pot is at Chelmsford, where the polytrack is standard to slow for our six races which kick off with...
Leg 1 : 5.00 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...
Not a great deal to work with here, but Biniorella Bay has ran creditably in defeat with two fourth place finishes at Group 3 since winning at Newmarket in June. She sets the standard here and with her yard in good form and with a decent record at this venue, she'd be the one to beat for me with the main danger coming from Mythical Bird who finished 3rd of 13 at Kempton last time out.
Neoma has a pair of runner-up finishes to her name, but those races didn't seem as strong as the Kempton race above, whilst the unknown quantity here is the Roger Varian-trained Protest, who might end up being the one most likely to upset the applecart
(1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest
Leg 2 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...
Grand Duchess Olga won relatively comfortably over this trip at Kempton in June and was then third upped in class over the same track/trip next/last time out. She's had a rest since mid-July and now drops back in class and should go well. Pfingstberg had finished 331231 in his six runs this year before a disappointing effort at Beverley (7th of 8) last time out. He, too, has had a break and if returning to his previous good form, has an excellent chance here.
Dereham has been getting closer to winning recently, finishing third in each of his last two starts and only went down by a length and a half at Pontefract a fortnight ago. Easter Icon did win last time out, but that was over hurdles and he hasn't run well on level ground since winning at Wolverhampton over 1m6f back in February. Simiyann and Taxiing are both right out of form at the moment but bottom weight Veer (9lb 3yo weight allowance) was a runner-up in back to back 1m6f handicaps at Southwell and Nottingham in July/August prior to struggling when upped in trip to 2m at Newcastle recently.
And after looking at both Instant Expert and the top of the pace chart...
...I'm going with (1) Pfingstberg and (3) Grand Duchess Olga along with (5) Dereham who looks on the verge of landing a race soon.
Leg 3 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 7f...
Telford won over course and distance on handicap debut last time out, Matharu has finished 212 in his last three starts and has a stack of trainer/jockey stats to support his claims...
The Feminine Urge was a winner two starts ago and Rotation won three back and that's pretty much it from a form perspective, although Brandywine Falls has run better than two fourth places on the bounce might suggest, especially last time out when staying on strongly over 6f at Redcar. The line came too quickly for him that day and the step up to 7f here might be his shot at getting off the mark.
We'd now normally look for speedy types over 7f here at Chelmsford, but with no obvious front-runner in the pack...
...I'll refer back to my notes above and take (8) Matharu and (11) Telford on form with the promise/prospect of more to come from (7) Brandywine Falls over this trip.
Leg 4 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f...
A modest looking contest with only really Dancing Magic looking like he might win a race soon, even if he is a 16-race maiden. He was a runner-up at Chester four starts ago and again here over a mile last time out, beaten by just a length and a quarter and that run sets the standard here, I feel. He was only headed inside the final furlong by the 92-rated 4/11 fav and the drop in trip should help here.
Next best is probably/possibly Stanage who has made the frame three times from his five starts, but could only finish 6th of 10 on his A/W debut last time out. That said, he has been rated at 81 by the assessors, so they might have seen something in him and he'll wear blinkers for the first time today.
As for a third pick here, the field seems much of a muchness, but the market seems to suggest the filly Jumeirah Sea might be the one to pose the biggest threat. She improved upon her debut effort when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Kempton four weeks ago and a drop in both trip and class could see her get closer today.
(1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea
Leg 5 : 7.00 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
On form, you have to start with the three LTO winners; Pinball Wizard scored over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago and is 3 from 4 on standard to slow polytrack. Nammos won here over course and distance a month ago on her second yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam and Desert Dream comes here seeking a hat-trick after two wins over today's trip at Catterick. He might well be 10yrs old now, but he has been in the first three home in four of his last five.
I did, however, have doubts about all three here from a pace perspective as none tend to race from the front, which is often the key to success over shorter trips here at Chelmsford, but closer inspection of the whole field suggests a falsely run race anyway, which would suit horses who don't tend to lead...
Guiteau, Super Hit and Solara might well make a break for it early on, but none of them are running particularly well right now and I suspect they'd be reined it and beaten as they have in their recent outings, so I'm sticking with the form guide and taking (2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos and (12) Desert Dream here.
Leg 6 : 7.30 Chelmsford, a 16-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ selling handicap over 1m2f...
Clear Justice looks the pick on seasonal form, having won twice at Brighton over 1m and 1m2f in June/July and was only beaten by a head there over 1m2f last time out, some 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse. Milvus would be of interest if turned back out just two days after racing at Bath, where the heavy ground didn't seem to suit him. Prior to that run, he had finished third in back to back races at Windsor over 1m and 1m2f on quicker ground and he also finished third on his last standard to slow polytrack run.
The Instant Expert picture looks pretty bleak, but does throw Semser's name into the ring...
...whilst the likes of Hurtle & Juan Cool Dude enter the equation based on their low draw and early pace...
Sadly neither of that pair are in great form, although Hurtle was a runner-up three starts ago, but I'm going to overlook him and take (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice and also (12) Milvus, who might well contest the lead here.
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All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest
Leg 2: (1) Pfingstberg, (3) Grand Duchess Olga & (5) Dereham
Leg 3: (7) Brandywine Falls, (8) Matharu & (11) Telford
Leg 4: (1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea
Leg 5:(2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos & (12) Desert Dream
Leg 6: (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice & (12) Milvus
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Good Luck, as always,
Chris
PS A reminder that I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after this piece, I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October. Some of you might be glad of the break!
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