Tix Picks, Thursday 26/09/24

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newmarket, Perth, Pontefract and Southwell.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and I think we'll head to HQ, where the going is expected to be predominantly good for...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m

Not the easiest start to a placepot with seven of the eight on debut! Seacruiser is thew only one with a run under his belt, having finished 5th of 10 in a Class 2 maiden at Goodwood just over three weeks ago. He was beaten by 4.5 lengths that day after being sent off as the 5/2 fav. He should find this easier today, having had that experience and he also drops two classes. The two horses immediately in front of him have both won next time out, so that's a good sign.

Of ther debutants, Naval Command is a half-brother to St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov and has already got a Group 1 entry for the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster in October, so his team must think he has something and with William Buick riding him over stablemate Present Times, you could assume Naval Command is the Appleby first-string?

That said, due to bloodlines, you can never safely rule out Goldolphin 2 yr olds on debut, so Present Times is still in the reckoning, despite Mr Buick choosing Naval Command (James Doyle is no mug in fairness), as is the Gosden trained Devil's Advocate.

I'd hate to crash & burn on leg 1, so it's a safety-first approach with runners (1) Devil's Advocate, (4) Naval Command, (5) Present Times and (6) Seascruiser taken for the ticket builder and I'm still worried!

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 1m

Another tricky inexperienced field to deal with here, as only Jack Andrea has raced in handicap company before and after only finishing fourth of six at Sandown recently, is now fitted with cheekpieces.

Celeborn and Louie the Legend are the only two with wins under their belt so far. The former took a while to settle on debut at Leicester back in June but once the penny dropped, he stayed on really well to win by 1.5 lengths. He was then gelded during a three month break and returned with a more than creditable third place at Salisbury a fortnight ago.

Louie The Legend has got progressively better in his three runs, finishing 4th of 8 (4.5 lengths down) over 7f at Newcastle on debut at the end of June and then 2nd of 12 (2L) at Chelmsford in early August, before winning at 7f maiden at Chepstow on his turf debut a month ago in a 15-runner field.

Elsewhere, Olympus Point looks reasonably well treated off a mark of just 78 despite making the frame in all three career starts and never beaten by far and the same could be said about Gap Year off a mark of 72. Three of his four starts have been at Class 2 and he drops two classes here having finished 2nd of 15, 3rd of 10 and 4th of 11 at that higher grade. Throw in a 4th of 15 at Class 3 and it could well be that he's better than the assessor thinks.

These four would be my shortlist here, but I don't want to take four from seven from each of the first two races. (1) Celeborn and (2) Olympus Point are definite picks for me based on the above and of the other two, I'll take (3) Louie The Legend, because he won LTO, but might be a longer price.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 6f

Another tight-looking race here, but one I should be more comfortable with all seven runners having raced at least five times and all having won at least once. That said, none of them even made the frame last time out, which os a negative, as are the 139 day and 209 day layoffs for Geologist and Kinta.

Bottom weight Dance and Romance has two wins and two places from her five career starts, whilst Funny Story has seven top-three finishes from her last eleven starts. Seven of her last eight runs have been in Listed company and with a string of results reading 2712234, you'd have to think she could be a bit better than Class 2?

If I'm against Geologist and Kinta (even if Kinta did win this last year) due to their lay-offs, then Instant Expert suggests that Executive Decision is the most vulnerable of the remaining five contenders...

Of the four still under consideration, recent form is against both Pinafore and Sophia's Starlight, so I'll just take (1) Funny Story and (7) Dance and Romance (who might try to make all here) from this one.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo, Group 3 contest over 7f

Diego Ventura is two from two so far, both over 6f, but doing his best work late on which suggests the step up to 7f will suit him. Huscal has won each of his last, also both staying on over 6f, but the step up from Class 4 company is huge.

Monumental was a runner-up over 6f and a winner over 7f in Ireland recently before a UK debut saw him finish second on the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster less than a fortnight ago, beaten by just half a length (behind Bay City Roller) and the strength of that run alone makes him the one to beat here

In a similar vein, Symbol of Honour was a clear winner of a Class 4 maiden in mid-May before going down by less than a length in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot a month later. He then took three months off before returning to action as a Listed class runner-up beaten by half a length at Doncaster a fortnight ago. The re-opposing The Waco Kid was third on that race a further 0.75 lengths back and whilst the latter is a contender here too, he'd have to improve more to be ahead of Symbol of Honour, but he makes my 5-runner shortlist.

Of the five, Huscal steps up three classes and The Waco Kid is held by Symbol of Honour, so I'll omit those two to take (3) Diego Ventura, (5) Monumental and (6) Symbol of Honour here.

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 2m

In racecard order, I suspect that this might well be a four-horse race between Harbour Wind, Al Nayyir, Night Sparkle and bottom-weight Fighter which would also represent the views of the handicapper. I know it's not a handicap, of course, but if it were, then Al Nayyir would be well in at the weights along with Fighter.

Harbour Wind's half length defeat as a runner-up on his second outing is his sole defeat in five starts and he comes here off the back of Listed class wins at both Leopardstown and Limerick, but he does concede weight all round today.

Al Nayyir was last seen pushing Irish St Leger runner-up Vauban all the way to the line in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York five weeks ago, going down by just a short head, matching his result in March's Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan and those runs make him the one to beat here on form.

Night Sparkle has won three and been runner-up in four of her last ten on the Flat, but is winless in seven and with her 2024 form reading 272242, she screams 'consistent, but not quite good enough to win' She was 4th in the Lonsdale (above) a further two places and four lengths behind Al Nayyir and although 2lbs better off here and Group 2 runner-up LTO, I still don't see her beating Al Nayyir, but she might get closer than their last meeting.

As for Fighter, this Frankel colt is a bit of an unknown in the UK, he's getting weight all round and has won both his last two starts (Curragh & Leopardstown), but is now asked for three furlongs more than he's ever raced. That's a tough ask, but he's by Frankel and represents the O'Brien/Moore combo, so you never know.

Instant Expert suggest all four might go well here, as could Samui...

And unusually over a 2m trip, front-running has been beneficial here at Newmarket, albeit off a small sample size of races, which could benefit Fighter more than the others...

Overall, I see (2) Al Nayyir battling with (6) Night Sparkle for the win and whilst I like the breeding and the Trainer/Jockey combo behind Fighter, I think this is a big step up in both class and trip, so I'll take the ultra-consistent (1) Harbour Wind to complete my picks for this race.

Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Baltic is 5 from 5 in handicap company and that has elevated his mark by some 24lbs, but he remains the one to beat here, especially with his yard's record with LTO winners...

Candyman Stan has improved with each run and made all to romp home by nine lengths at Lingfield recently and an opening mark of 80 doesn't look too punitive. Fighter Command drops in class here after a win and three places from his five starts, whilst Woner Kid has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four and drops two classes here.

Elsewhere Macari has made the frame in his last two, but as a 4yo is 7lbs 'wrong' here with most of the field being 3 yr olds. Instant Expert leans towards the top of the card too...

..as do the pace scores...

I'd definitely want to take (1) Baltic and (4) Candyman Stan here and it's a bit of a toss-up for the final pick and although I do like the look of Fighter Command, I think (2) Wonder Kid might be better than his last result suggests.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 4 , 5 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 3: horses 1 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 5 & 6

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

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