Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Bath, Newcastle & Sedgefield.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And we're off to Scotland and some good ground for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.40 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

None of these come here in great form, but Yaaser and Gracious Leader did both win their penultimate races with the latter also third last time out. Both drop in class here and the fast-finisher Gracious Leader wears a first-time tongue tie on his debut for George Boughey, whose horses are running well right now. His horses also fare pretty well with 3lb claimer Tommie Jakes in the saddle and George has a good record with horses making their yard debut after a move...

Yaaser won here over course and distance on his penultimate run (the second run of his three races in three days here last month!), whilst Tele Red won this race last year off a mark a pound higher than today. He won six races back and has actually been running better than recent results might suggest. Elsewhere there's very little form to go off, although Detective did win four starts ago and Urban Sprawl has some useful jockey and trainer/jockey stats behind him for his run off a dangerous career-low mark...

Instant Expert also points to (2) Yaaser and (5) Tele Red...

...so I'll take both of them along with the afore-mentioned in-form yard debutant (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2 : 2.15 Ayr, a 4-runner, Class 5, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Despite being 0 from 4, Weissmuller is the obvious pick here. He has been in the first three home on two of his three UK starts and was 4th of 27 in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and is rated as highly as 92 by the assessor. However, third place won't be good enough for us here today, so I'll also take Blue Pinatubo as a backup. He showed good early pace on debut at Goodwood back in July and although he faded late on, this is an easier task down three classes.

Leg 3 : 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

A really open race here with Soowaih of immediate interest running off the same mark as when only denied by a neck at Hamilton eight days ago having been caught very late on. The drop back in trip should help him here too. Top weight Pol Roger is a former course and distance winner and although he was only 7th of 11 here over track/trip last time out, that was his first time that he had failed to make the frame after two wins, four runner-up finishes and a third place in seven runs and his C&D form reads 112227.

Spirit of Acklam also drops two classes here after a disappointing handicap debut at Newbury when last home of 13, but this 3yo had won his two previous outings, so it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that he'll resume where he left off at Ripon back in April when winning by three lengths over today's trip, whilst another who has been running well is Young Fire who is showing little sign of slowing down at the age of nine. He wasn't at this best on soft ground at Doncaster last time out, but won a 17-runner handicap at York on his previous run for a second win in four starts and has seven top-three finishes from his last ten outings.

Pol Roger and Young Fire catch the eye from Instant Expert...

...and with (1) Pol Roger also likely to set the pace from stall 1, I have to take him here...

I also want to take (5) Soowaih based on that last run and I've a marginal preference for (4) Young Fire over Spirit of Acklam, There's probably not much in it, but Young Fire will probably offer more value in the markets.

Leg 4 : 3.25 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

Wow, only six run but it looks super competitive. Jenni won over course and distance ten days ago just a week after being a runner-up at Musselburgh. She's only up 3lbs here, so remains of interest. Danzan ran a really good race to finish third of twenty-seven in the Bronze Cup here eleven days ago and he now drops two classes. Redarna won this race in both 2020 and 2021, Abduction is a 3-time course and distance winner and Red Mirage won five starts ago. Clasina is the only one yet to win a race and now she steps up in class, so I'd rule her out now.

I will take (4) Danzan and (5) Jenni on their recent runs and it's really a toss-up between the other three with (3) Red Mirage probably edging it on form.

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

In racecard order, (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield and (5) Alpine Sierra struck me as ones who might go well here, especially Sir Garfield whose last six handicap runs have seen him finish 122282 and he runs off the same mark as his C&D runner-up finish last time out and it is he and Alpine Sierra who make most sense here from an Instant Expert point of view...

Pace is often the key here over this track/trip...

...but in the absence of any real proven front-runners, I'm hoping that class will count, so I'm sticking to my original shortlist of (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra.

Leg 6 : 4.35 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

You could probably make a case for five or six of these. The 10yr old veteran Muscika has been a runner-up in each of his last two starts and Act Of Violence was also a runner-up a fortnight ago. Jonny Concrete has made the frame in four of his last seven and was only beaten by three lengths in the Bronze Cup here and now drops two classes. Rousing Encore isn't in the best of form right now, but has dropped to a dangerously low mark of 78 having last won off a mark of 85, whilst Moyola has two wins and three third placed finishes from his last seven runs and he was only 3.5 lengths off the winner in the Bronze Cup too, despite coming off a 10-week layoff. He's down in class and should improve for the run.

Instant Expert backs up the competitiveness of this race...

...whilst recent pace scores only rule Moyola out of the reckoning from my original shortlist...

I think I need to be with three of the top four of that graphic and I think it's going to be (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence ahead of the possibly unlucky Rousing Encore for the finale.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Yaaser, (5) Tele Red & (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2: (1) Blue Pinatubo & (4) Weissmuller

Leg 3: (1) Pol Roger, (4) Young Fire & (5) Soowaih

Leg 4: (3) Red Mirage, (4) Danzan & (5) Jenni

Leg 5: (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra

Leg 6: (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
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